A few months ago, as the college season was just getting revved up, I pondered the idea of whether or not the 2007 draft had a chance to become the greatest center draft ever. At the time there were seven to eight centers looking like solid pros while destroying non-conference schedules. Then the conference season started and these monsters, except for Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert, suddenly looked more human and rather ordinary.  Then Hibbert decided to head back to Georgetown and that pretty much killed any best center draft ever chances 2007 may have had. So this isn’t going to challenge 1971 or 1992 for the greatest draft of centers ever. It might make the top ten or even the top five if Hawes can get it going and there is a surprise or two. And this is a much better group than we’ve seen in years, probably since the Shaq-Alonzo draft of 1992. Oden looks like an all-timer and there are enough other decent prospects out there that I suspect one or two will emerge as solid players down the line. The fact that I have 21 centers listed speaks to the strength of this group. I had to cut a few out who may have made the top ten in other years.

 

This past year I spent a lot of time looking at past prospects to try and see if there was any pattern in the statistics of prospects who became good pros as opposed to players who didn’t. For centers I found the important numbers were FG pct, points, rebounds and blocks per 40 minutes and the ratio of FT attempts to personal fouls. Players who became better pros generally posted higher numbers in these statistics, more so than other ones. Assists don’t seem to matter all that much. Not that passing is a bad skill for a center to have. It’s that there’s no correlation between center prospects being good passers and having pro success. A ridiculously bad A/TO can sink an otherwise decent prospect though.

 

As far as the rankings go, instead of putting the players in order according to a rigid ranking system, I’m going to compare their numbers to those of prospects from the past 12 seasons at a similar time in their careers and see where their numbers stack up at this point in their careers against the average prospect who went on to become an all-star, rotation regular, journeyman or a player who never made the league. Since these stats are averages of players and there’s quite a difference between some of the prospects in each category, I’m not sure how much this is going to tell us. I’ll post the numbers for each position and we’ll see how things work out. I still rank the players subjectively and look behind the numbers some in the comments following the tables. I included only players from major colleges in these tables. Players from smaller colleges and foreign leagues are ranked and commented on, but comparing their numbers to previous major college players would be an apples and oranges thing and that would tell us a whole lot.

 

NCAA Freshmen Centers	FG Pct.	P40	R40	B40	FT/PF	A/TO	PPS
Greg Oden	.616	22.1	13.5	4.6	2.3	0.3	1.63
All-Star	.541	15.3	12.4	4.3	1.2	0.6	1.40
Starter/Rotation Regular	.541	15.3	10.6	3.9	1.1	0.4	1.38
Spencer Hawes	.532	20.0	8.5	2.3	1.4	0.8	1.27
Journeyman	.522	14.7	9.7	2.8	1.1	0.4	1.36
Never made it	.505	15.3	10.4	2.1	0.9	0.5	1.29

 

 

NCAA Junior Centers	FG Pct.	P40	R40	B40	FT/PF	A/TO	PPS
All-Star	.547	21.2	11.6	4.3	2.2	0.9	1.46
Randolph Morris	.592	23.3	11.3	3.0	2.6	0.5	1.60
Starter/Rotation Regular	.562	20.6	12.1	3.4	2.0	0.9	1.48
Sean Williams	.548	14.9	8.5	6.2	1.7	0.5	1.58
Journeyman	.529	17.4	11.3	2.7	1.7	0.9	1.44
Never made it	.538	17.6	10.3	2.6	1.4	1.0	1.37

 

 

NCAA Senior Centers	FG Pct.	P40	R40	B40	FT/PF	A/TO	PPS
All-Star	.556	19.6	12.8	4.0	2.5	0.7	1.56
Herbert Hill	.640	22.1	10.8	3.6	1.5	0.5	1.49
Aaron Gray	.565	20.0	13.7	2.5	1.8	1.1	1.38
Starter/Rotation Regular	.561	19.3	11.6	2.9	1.9	1.0	1.48
Kyle Visser	.584	22.2	9.7	1.8	3.0	0.3	1.63
Journeyman	.533	19.5	10.9	3.2	1.9	1.0	1.47
Ivan Radenovic	.507	17.1	8.6	0.7	2.4	1.0	1.58
Courtney Sims	.570	19.2	10.4	2.2	1.6	0.5	1.60
Daryl Watkins	.544	10.7	10.0	4.5	1.0	0.5	1.48
Never made it	.539	18.1	10.9	2.3	1.6	0.9	1.42
Antanas Kavaliauskas	.554	16.8	8.8	0.9	1.1	1.0	1.37
Ian Vouyoukas	.517	18.1	10.8	2.5	1.6	0.6	1.37

                       

1. Greg Oden, Ohio State: It’s no surprise that Oden is far above the average freshman center no matter how well they did as pros. But we knew he had the potential to be an all-timer even going into the season. The question we should be asking about Oden is how he compares to other great centers. Here’s his freshman season against the freshmen years of the greatest centers of recent years:

 

Centers	FG pct.	Points/40	Reb/40	Assists/40	Points/shot
Greg Oden	.616	22.1	13.5	0.9	1.63
Patrick Ewing	.631	17.6	10.5	0.9	1.62
David Robinson	.623	23.0	11.9	0.7	1.55
Shaquille O’Neal	.573	19.8	17.1	2.7	1.42
Hakeem Olajuwon	.607	18.2	13.5	0.8	1.60
Alonzo Mourning	.603	18.6	10.3	1.0	1.71
Tim Duncan	.545	13.0	12.7	1.2	1.47

 

Duncan played more PF in the pros, but was a center in college. Oden fits right in with this crowd. He’s third in FG pct, third in points scored, third in rebounds and second in points per shot. That he led his team to the championship game, before losing to an all-time great team only adds to his legend. The other question that must be asked about Oden is: Are there any other centers out there who were similarly great as freshmen before either flaming out or leveling off? I didn’t find any as good, but a few who were close. They’re listed below with Oden:

 

 

Centers	FG pct.	Points/40	Reb/40	Assists/40	Blocks/40	Points/shot
Greg Oden	.616	22.1	13.5	0.9	4.6	1.63
Andrew Bogut	.577	16.4	13.0	2.9	1.8	1.44
Adonal Foyle	.559	19.2	14.0	1.4	5.5	1.38
Yinka Dare	.551	17.6	14.8	0.1	4.0	1.44
Erick Dampier	.588	20.3	14.8	1.4	3.8	1.52
Todd MacCulloch	.675	23.5	12.8	0.4	3.1	1.60

 

None are quite at Oden’s level, but all put up some impressive numbers as NCAA freshmen. I should say that Foyle put up his numbers against weaker competition in the Patriot League. Dampier played just 678 minutes and MacCulloch only 410, while Oden logged 925 after missing the first seven games. Bogut remains a young pro with promise. But the question here would be: Is there any chance Greg Oden becomes a player like one of these five? I’m guessing not. Foyle’s lack of pro success can be explained away by the small college thing and the fact that he’s short. Dare and MacCulloch were both unathletic big men whose college success was probably based more on being big than anything. Such a skill doesn’t translate well to the pros without some athleticism and that’s no problem with Oden.

 

I see no reason to doubt Oden’s chances for long term greatness. In the pantheon of great pro centers, there are five--Wilt, Russell, Kareem, Hakeem and Shaq—who stand above the rest. Oden has a chance to join this group and there haven’t been too many centers you could say that about. While we can’t say for sure Greg Oden will join that elite group, the fact that we can mention the possibility without hearing snickers says a lot about the talent Greg Oden is. There have been questions raised about his motivation and love of the game. I have no opinion on that, other than to say he should probably get used to it, because it’s something every great big man hears in seasons he doesn’t win a championship. As for where he’ll rank once all is said and done with his career, my gut feeling is that his career will be more like that of Patrick Ewing or David Robinson than the top 5. There will be a different dynamic for Oden, because there are no other great centers in the league right now. It’s a league in an era of great SFs and SGs and it’s anyone’s guess whether Oden will dominate because of this and win multiple championships or become sort of a dinosaur. One thing that can’t be denied is that great big men win championships. With the exception of the Jordan dynasty, this has been pretty constant whether the play has been fast and furious or slow and deliberate. For this reason, it’s hard to see Greg Oden as anything but a player who will bring at least a championship or two to Portland, Seattle or whatever team he spends most of his career with.

 

2. Yi Jianlian, Goangdong Tigers: What could be the most important issue with Yi is his age. He’s anywhere from 18 to 22, depending on the source. There was even one rumor that had him at 24, but that doesn’t seem reliable. The age question is a big deal here’s a look at how China’s two most prominent NBAers looked at age 19 and 21 compared to Yi’s 2006-07 season:

 

Player age 19	FG Pct.	PPG	RPG	APG
Wang Zhi-Zhi	.547	16.6	7.3	1.0
Yao Ming	.573	21.3	14.5	1.7
Yi Jianlian	.585	24.9	11.5	1.1

 

 

Player age 21	FG Pct.	PPG	RPG	APG
Wang Zhi-Zhi	.575	21.9	6.1	0.8
Yao Ming	.708	32.6	19.0	2.9
Yi Jianlian	.585	24.9	11.5	1.1

 

As a 19 year-old, he’s closer to Yao, though not quite the rebounder. As a 21 year-old, he’s closer to Wang, though he’s definitely a superior player. I’m not calling him the next Yao or the next Wang, but they’re the only two players who played in the same league at the same age as Yi. It will obviously be important to know whether or not he put up numbers like Yao, a huge success, or Wang, a relative flop who was back in China a few years later. It’s also important to note that Yi isn’t similar to either one as a player. While Yao and Wang are both inside players, Yi looks like more of a quick center-PF, who can handle the ball and score from inside and out in addition to being able to handle the board work. That he still rebounds like a PF or center makes him an impressive prospect, if he put up these numbers as a 19 year-old.

 

There’s one more issue to address though and that’s the level of play in China. It’s not as a good as the top levels of Europe and South America, let alone the US. China was beaten soundly by every good team they faced in the World Championships last summer. During these games Yi averaged 6.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG and shot only .421. The Chinese league is basically at the level of a small college conference. A top prospect should dominate that league, so Yi’s numbers have to be looked at with that in mind.

 

The age question will be the big one with Yi. I’ve been told by unreliable sources that in cases like this the player is usually the older age. I can’t say whether this is true or not, because this could also be a rumor being floated by some underhanded GM looking to draft Yi with a lower selection. Either way, he looks like a pretty decent player. If he really is 19, he looks like a player worthy of a top five pick. He should become a star if that’s the case. If he’s 21 or 22, he looks like a player capable of having a decent NBA career, but not a dominant force and perhaps nothing more than a reserve C-PF.

 

3. Spencer Hawes, Washington: Hawes has some work to do. Specifically he needs to rebound much better before he can be considered a good prospect. As a freshman he averaged 8.53 rebounds per 40 minutes. The only center or PF prospect in the past 15 years who averaged under ten rebounds per 40 as a freshman and still made an all-star team during his NBA career was Theo Ratliff. Ratliff was more of a shot blocker than anything else and he only made the all-star team in 2001 because there were no real centers in the East at that time. Other Centers and PFs who have gone on to the NBA after freshman seasons of less than ten rebounds per 40 while playing a significant number of minutes include Stromile Swift, Ike Diogu, Pat Garrity, Jason Caffey, Andrew DeClerq, Juwan Howard, Jim McIlvaine, Jelani McCoy, Calvin Booth, Vitaly Potapenko, Bill Curley and Lari Ketner. Not a group any prospective draft pick would want to be compared with. Some of these players have gotten big contracts, but those contracts were usually mistakes.

 

In Hawes’ defense, he’s a better passer than any of these players and he’s probably on track to become a better scorer than all of them also. The rebounding number could be a little low, because he plays alongside a PF, Jon Brockman, who is a terrific rebounder. There’s also the fact that he was ill and injured for some of the season. I can’t say what effect, if any, this had on his numbers, but here are his splits for conference and non-conference games:

 

Spencer Hawes	FG pct.	P40	R40	B40	A/TO
Non-conference games	.621	25.3	9.7	4.0	0.7