With the PFs, rating them turns out to be fairly simple. Or so it seems according to recent history. There are 4 categories that seem to be important: FG pct., points per 40 minutes, rebounds per 40 minutes and the sum of steals and blocks per 40 minutes. I would say that rebounds and FG pct. are probably most important, but the rospect can’t be weak in any one area. It’s also nice of they’re over 6’8”, or at least have real long arms, and play in a strong conference. As is the case with centers, passing and outside shooting are certainly nice skills to have, but there is no trend of successful prospects doing either better than unsuccessful prospects If they don’t do those first 4 things well, the passing and shooting won’t make them anything more than a role player.

 

This is a strong overall year for PFs. Horford and Noah both look like future stars to me. Brandan Wright also looks good, but he has some work to do.  There are also a few decent prospects behind them who could surprise. Paul Millsap’s surprise success last season could have scouts looking for the next Millsap and give more opportunities to similar players. As is the case in any year where a particular position is strong, there could well be good players available in round 2. That will be the case more than ever this season, as both the centers and SFs are loaded with good prospects also.

Next year could also be a strong year for PFs, as players like Darrell Arthur, Richard Hendrix, Tyler Hansbrough, Josh Heyvelt, Carlos Monroe, Joseph Jones and Joey Dorsey all look like strong prospects who are returning to college.

 

The numbers below are where each major college prospect ranks against the average numbers of previous groups of players. I’m not sure whether these should be taken seriously or with a grain of salt at this point, but I thought it was an interesting way of looking at things. The numbers for the prospects have been pace-adjusted.

 

 

NCAA Freshman PFs	FG Pct.	Points40	Reb40	St40+Bl40	A/TO	PPS
All-star level	.567	19.6	12.5	3.7	0.5	1.45
Brandan Wright	.645	20.2	8.5	3.8	0.6	1.54
Rotation Regular	.515	18.2	11.1	3.3	0.5	1.37
Journeyman	.483	18.8	10.5	2.8	0.4	1.29
Never made it	.518	15.3	9.8	2.9	0.6	1.37

 

 

NCAA Sophomore PFs	FG Pct.	Points40	Reb40	St40+Bl40	A/TO	PPS
All-star level	.560	20.8	12.7	4.4	0.6	1.38
Rotation Regular	.538	19.8	11.2	3.3	0.5	1.46
Journeyman	.506	18.5	10.1	2.5	0.5	1.37
Josh McRoberts	.502	14.8	8.9	4.2	1.4	1.31
Never made it	.531	17.1	9.9	2.7	0.6	1.41

 

  

NCAA Junior PFs	FG Pct.	Points40	Reb40	St40+Bl40	A/TO	PPS
All-star level	.595	23.2	12.6	4.3	0.6	1.53
Al Horford	.608	18.8	13.5	3.7	1.2	1.64
Joakim Noah	.605	18.3	12.9	4.4	0.9	1.67
Rotation Regular	.543	21.2	11.2	3.4	0.7	1.45
Jason Smith	.579	21.8	13.2	2.7	0.6	1.67
Glen Davis	.484	20.6	12.2	2.8	0.8	1.39
Journeyman	.521	19.9	10.5	2.9	0.6	1.42
Never made it	.531	18.1	10.4	2.6	0.7	1.42

 

  

NCAA Senior PFs	FG Pct.	Points40	Reb40	St40+Bl40	A/TO	PPS
All-star level	.595	23.2	12.6	4.3	0.6	1.53
Nick Fazekas	.568	26.9	14.6	3.0	0.9	1.49
Rotation Regular	.526	20.5	11.2	3.2	0.7	1.45
Stephane Lasme	.611	16.8	11.9	7.4	0.4	1.66
Carl Landry	.597	25.1	9.7	2.8	0.4	1.75
Rashaun Freeman	.609	20.6	11.6	1.4	0.4	1.44
Journeyman	.506	20.5	10.5	2.9	0.6	1.41
Jermareo Davidson	.407	17.1	10.1	3.9	0.9	1.14
Terrence Roberts	.545	11.9	10.8	3.0	0.7	1.38
Ekene Ibekwe	.494	15.8	11.7	5.5	0.3	1.37
Mario Boggan	.540	22.6	9.0	2.2	0.6	1.44
Never made it	.514	18.5	10.5	2.6	0.7	1.38
Chris Richard	.690	13.4	7.9	1.4	0.4	1.75
Warren Carter	.485	18.2	8.1	2.2	0.8	1.35

 

 

1. Al Horford, Florida: Al Horford looks like a terrific prospect to me. He’s not on the level of Oden or Durant, but is 3^rd behind those two. The only thing that keeps his ranking down a little is he doesn’t score a lot of points. But I’m not going to get too concerned about the lack of scoring from Horford or any Florida player. The Gators were a team that shared the ball and spread the scoring to everyone. I have little doubt Horford could have scored 20+ PPG if need be.  He hit over 60% of his shots, got to the line a lot and showed all the characteristics of a great college scorer. He’s a great rebounder, despite playing next to one of the best rebounders in the country. He’s one of two players on this list with an A/TO >1. Defensively he looks strong, but it’s hard to tell for sure. He gets a lot of blocks and steals, and those numbers are probably a little suppressed due to the presence of Noah. He’s not exactly a Hibbert when it comes to shutting opponents down. No opposing inside player dominated against Horford, but there were some decent games by Darrell Arthur, Randolph Morris and Richard Hendrix. Another thing to like about Horford is he won’t turn 21 until the season starts. That’s the age of a typical sophomore.

 

Horford looks like a future star to me. He does all the necessary PF things well, and he’s one of the best passing big men in the nation. I’m struggling a little for a comparision. The great PFs all scored more often at this level, rebounded and defended about the same and didn’t pass as well. I suppose that puts Horford a notch below the typical all-star PF, but Florida was not the typical situation, because no Gator scored a lot of points. The low P40 is a concern, but I’m comfortable explaining it away as a quirk of his team. I see Horford as a solid NBA player who will become one of the better big men in the league. His ceiling is a perennial all-star PF and that puts him at the top of this group.

 

2. Joakim Noah, Florida: Noah looks like every bit the prospect Horford is, perhaps even moreso. He’s close in most important categories and is better in both steals and blocks. He’s also taller and gets extra points for being the leader of a great team. Noah would likely have been the top pick last year had he declared. This season he seemed to be playing whatever role might be needed of him. Here’s his numbers from the season split into 3rds:

 

Joakim Noah	FG Pct.	P40	R40	A40	TO40	S+B40
First 13 games	.644	19.6	12.6	5.1	3.9	4.8
Middle 14 games	.630	19.4	11.9	2.7	4.1	3.8
Final 13 games	.534	15.5	13.9	2.6	3.4	4.7

 

During the first third of the season, Noah was a great passer, even leading the Gators in assists at one point. He was scoring less than he had as a sophomore, but was rebounding better. In the middle third, the numbers dropped some. This is something that would be expected, due to the conference schedule starting and the competition being better. For the final third he raised his rebounding to a ridiculous level, stepped up his defense and was less involved in the offense. Now this could be just me reading into numbers and perceptions too much, but I got the impression that Noah, more than any other player, was focused on team success. After all, he was the leader of the 3 who came back to repeat. He was the one who gave up being the top overall draft choice. So he probably had the most invested in repeating as champions. Is it possible that the variance in his numbers over the course of the season reflects a willingness on his part to do whatever the team needed him to do? Early on he was the team’s best passer, because that got the other players involved. This team was remarkably balanced on offense. Their starting 5 all averaged between 10.3 and 13.3 PPG. Only 70 FGAs separated the player who was first and fifth on the team in FGAs. Four players averaged over 2 assists per game. This was a team that got everyone involved and that’s something that could have had its roots in Noah’s early season passing frenzy. Later in the year, when the team was starting to slump a little, Noah gave up a lot of his offense, and possibly a few spots in the draft, to focus on defense and rebounding, which he did as well as any college big guy down the stretch, because it was what the team needed from him. It seemed to me he did whatever the team needed him to do. Since the result was a championship, he deserves credit for such.

 

Even if I’m reading things wrong and Noah’s numbers slipped a little because of indifference and laziness on his part, this is still an excellent prospect. I nudged Horford ahead of him in the final analysis, because Horford is 16 months younger, played center  and Noah’s TOs did go up this year. But it’s also worth noting that Noah was a higher percentage scorer with the same number of points as Horford until late in the year, when his FG pct. slumped for the first time in his career. He’s also a similar rebounder and has better defensive numbers than Horford. I don’t feel there’s as much difference between the players as the mocks and pre-draft buzz are suggesting. I mean I love Horford, but the idea that he’s suddenly a can’t miss star to Noah’s non-scoring stiff (another Mark Madsen as one scout reportedly whispered to the Chicago Tribune’s Sam Smith) is nothing short of ridiculous.

 

Last year at I thought Noah looked like a Kirilenko type. I think he might be better than that now, as Kirilenko was never this good as a rebounder. I shouldn’t throw out this comp and I don’t mean he’s going to be such a player, but Noah has some characteristics of Bill Russell if you think about it. He’s a winner, having been the vocal leader of back-to-back NCAA champions just like Russell; He’s a defender, rebounder and passer first and a scorer second, just like Russell was. I’m not saying this is the next Russell, who’s going to come into the league, be so dominating defensively that other players simply retire and start a dynasty. Russell was one of the bigger players in the league when he entered and during most of his career, while Noah is smallish for a PF/C. But I could see Noah using his rebounding abilities, passing skills and quickness on defense to trigger some killer fast breaks like Russell did during his career.

 

I’m probably going a little overboard there. It’s likely my contrarian reaction to a terrific player being put under a microscope and unfairly downgraded. As for his future, I don’t see Noah as a big time scorer in the NBA, and that could hurt him some whenever the hardware is handed out. I do see him as a very valuable player who does a lot of things well, piles up big numbers on rebounds, assists, blocks and steals, hits a very high percentage of his shots and generally does the things that help his team win. He’ll be the type of player every team should want to have.

 

3. Brandan Wright, North Carolina: Wright has some work to do as a prospect. He’s a weak rebounder and he’s going to have to get bigger than his listed 210 lbs before he can handle playing PF in the NBA. His two skills--inside scoring and shotblocking—point to him playing PF, so improving the rebounding and getting bigger is a must.

 

I’ll mention the good stuff about Wright first, then address the rebounding. He can score and defend inside as well as few NCAA freshmen ever have. On a team that’s full of good scorers, the 20.2 per40 is most likely lower than his real ability. He’s also a better than average passer, doesn’t have a turnover or foul problem and gets to the line a lot.  But if he doesn’t improve his rebounding, he’s going to have trouble becoming anything more than an NBA role player.

I want to look at whether or not Wright can improve his rebounding to the point where he can become the player most mocks have listed right behind Oden and Durant for most of the year. First I’ll toss up a couple of tables. The first one shows freshmen PFs who posted a FG pct. of at least .600 while playing significant minutes, as Wright did this past season.

 

Player	FG Pct.	P40	R40	S+B40
Rasheed Wallace	.604	18.2	12.7	4.8
Antawn Jamison	.624	18.4	11.8	2.2
Tyrus Thomas	.608	19.1	14.2	6.4
Ike Diogu	.616	23.9	9.7	1.5
Jelani McCoy	.676	13.7	9.3	5.2
Andre Hutson	.613	14.3	9.9	3.6
Michael Southall	.610	18.3	10.7	5.2
Brandan Wright	.645	20.2	8.5	3.8

 

This shows it’s a good thing to be able to rebound as a freshman if you plan on NBA success. The two successful players on the list, Wallace and Jamison, could both rebound well as a frosh. The one young player who looks like almost a lock to be successful, Thomas, boarded better than any of them. The players who didn’t board well as a freshman haven’t been as successful, though Diogu still could develop. Southall was sidetracked by personal problems more than anything.

Next I have to ask if there’s any chance Wright can improve his rebounding to the point where it isn’t an issue. Anything is possible, but the question is do players typically improve their rebound rate after their freshman season? Here’s a group of players who averaged less than 9 rebounds per 40 minutes as NCAA freshmen, as Wright did, but improved their rebounding to the point where it wasn’t a weakness.

 

Player	Freshman R40	Draft year R40	% increase	Best NBA R40
Brandon Bass	8.4	10.8	28.6	10.6
Mark Blount	8.3	10.4	26.8	9.8
Calvin Booth	9.0	10.0	11.1	10.9
Cal Bowdler	7.5	13.3	77.3	8.2
Michael Bradley	8.9	11.5	29.2	12.5
Jason Caffey	8.1	10.7	32.1	9.7
Travis Knight	8.8	13.4	52.2	12.6