I’m going to look at this thing from a few different angles before settling on a final bracket. There are a few theories I like to look at before making my picks. Most of the stuff I’m putting out here is just theory that has developed in my head after watching the tournament for years. There could be biases at work here, but I try to be as objective as possible.

 

The Best Teams

 

One of the best teams usually wins the championship, despite all the talk about Cinderellas. This year, I expect the final 4 to be without a sleeper or Cinderella, because there are too many good teams. The past few season there have been only 2 or 3 real good teams out there each year. Good teams are more difficult to upset, so the more good teams out there, the fewer upsets there will be. We’ll still probably see an 11 or 12 beat a 5 or a 6 and maybe even a 3 or 4 go down in round one, but the top 2 seeds in each region should be safe through the first weekend.

The trick is to identify the best teams and separate them from the teams that look good and are highly ranked but just don’t have what it takes. There are some rating systems out there, but I like looking at point-differential to determine the best teams. Here are the top teams going into the tournament:

 

1. North Carolina 18.1
2. Florida 17.8
3. Kansas 17.4
4. Memphis 17.2
5. Texas A&M 17.1
6. Winthrop 14.4
7. Notre Dame 13.7
8. Ohio State 13.6
9. Davidson 13.4
10. Wisconsin 12.9

 

The usual suspects are here. UCLA and Georgetown just miss the cut. The presence of Winthrop on the list suggests they’re good enough to crash the sweet 16, but their numbers are a little bloated because of weaker competition. Memphis’ number, earned in the weak Conference USA, is also a little suspect. Conspicuous by their absence are UCLA and Georgetown who just missed the cut. Notre Dame is a definite sleeper and Ohio State and Wisconsin are both likely to be overrated. I think it’s safe to say that the top 5 teams are a notch above the rest and that the eventual champ will likely come from that bunch.

 

The team with the best players

 

A theory I read in Sports Illustrated several years ago said the best way to predict the winning teams is to go with the team that has the most pro prospects. I’d like to give the author credit, but I forget who it was. I’m going to refine the theory a little to say go with the team that has the best pro prospects. To do this I separated prospects in to 4 categories: Superstar; likely starter and possible all-star: good player who will definitely make the NBA, but could have trouble finding a role; and marginal prospect. I gave teams 5 points for the superstar, 3 for the likely starter, 2 for the good player and 1 for the marginal prospect. Here are the results of this admittedly quick and dirty exercise:

 

11- North Carolina, Florida and Arizona: Carolina is deep and talented, but has only one player—Lawson—who looks like a surefire impact pro to me. Florida has the best top 3 in the nation. Arizona has a ton of good talent, despite their poor season. I think it’s safe to call them a sleeper.

 

10- Ohio State, Texas and Kansas: The Jayhawks are similar to Carolina in that they’re deep, but have only one player—Wright—who I could say looks like he’s certain to have success at the next level at this point in his career. Ohio State is also deep and talented, but their talent is more potential than realized so far. Still, a team as good as they are has to be considered a threat. Texas is up here because of Durant, who is the only superstar in the bunch. In fact I created the category just to give him more credit than any other player. Durant is a better player than Carmelo Anthony was at this point and Anthony led an otherwise modestly talented team to a championship recently. Durant is a threat to do the same.

 

8- Memphis and UCLA: These teams are similar. Each has a star in Douglas-Roberts and Collison. Beyond that both teams have some talent, but aren’t quite up to where the top 6 are.

 

7-Georgia Tech, USC and Texas A&M: Tech is an interesting team here, because most of their points come from freshmen Crittenton and Young. Freshmen are tough to gauge, because they could go either way in the tournament. The presence of these two does give the Yellow Jackets the look of a sleeper. The lack of a real prospect behind Law is the only negative I could find when ranking A&M. USC is also loaded with good talent, but still a notch or two below the best.

 

6- Georgetown, Notre Dame and Duke: Georgetown is thin behind Green and Hibbert. Duke has some nice players, but no surefire star. Notre Dame also has some good players and this suggests their strong point diff is no fluke.

 

If you look at the top 6, the 3 teams that are at the top both here and in point diff are Carolina, Florida and Kansas. Not a huge surprise there. What this also suggests, is that a Texas, Arizona or Ohio State team that gets on a roll could be trouble for any of the big 3.

 

The Point Guard

 

A great PG can be huge in the tournament. They don’t come along every year though and often when they do a talented team isn’t there with them. But put a good PG with a strong team and that makes for a team that’s hard to beat. I came up with 6 PGs who could be the difference makers for their teams. They’re listed in order of preference:

 

1. Ty Lawson: With all the hype surrounding this great frosh class, it’s not surprising that this guy has flown below the radar. He doesn’t play big minutes, because of Carolina’s substitution pattern, but his per minute numbers top any PG on this list. Before a recent 3-point shooting slump, his per minute numbers compared favorably to Chris Paul’s freshman numbers. I think he’s the best PG in the NCAA and the player most likely to make the tournament his coming out party. That’s if Roy Williams decides to tighten his 30-man rotation and get 30+ minutes per night for his best players.
2. Mike Conley Jr.: Good steady player with great poise. Not great offensively, but seems to be able to step up when needed before disappearing into his role of distributor.
3. Darren Collison: His offense has waned some lately, but he’s UCLA’s best player and the key to any title hopes they harbor.
4. Acie Law IV: Law is more of a shoot-first type and he’s a clutch one at that. I prefer players who are more the distributor types, but Law can get the job done offensively. Often he has to get the job done, because he doesn’t have the weapons at his disposal that some of the others do.
5. DJ Augustine: He’s emerged as a solid #2 to Durant and he’ll be important when Durant is double and triple teamed. Still more prone to look like a freshman than Lawson and Conley though.
6. Mustafa Shakur: His senior season and his career have been somewhat disappointing. But he’s an NBA talent with a talented team under his charge and one last shot at glory.

  

Psychology

 

I’m not very good at looking at the psychology side of sports. It’s hard to guess which teams will be up and down and a lot of theories that develop in my head are probably based on nothing more than a single game. I do have a few rules though.

 

• Watch out for teams with senior stars who have had disappointing tournament runs the previous three seasons. The logic is obvious. Players in such a situation are looking at a last shot at NCAA glory. Teams that fit here are Arizona, Pitt, Wisconsin and Nevada.
• Stay away from the trendy sleepers. If you hear a team touted as a sleeper by more than one “expert”, it’s probably a good idea to stay away from that team. The teams I’ve heard mentioned most are Winthrop, Old Dominion and VCU.
• Watch for teams whose tournament credentials are questioned by analysts on the selection shows who freak out over a 6^th or 7^th place team from a major conference being left out of the tournament. These teams may get a chip on their shoulder and play with something to prove. Two such teams this year are Illinois and Arkansas.
• Stay away from teams with no tournament experience, especially from the smaller conferences. This is the “just happy to be here” scenario.
• Take a look at small college teams that have gone one-and-out the previous year and are back again. These teams are often a good sleeper in round one, but no deeper than that. This is especially true if the team’s main players are seniors. There’s no shortage of such teams this year: Davidson, Winthrop, Arkansas, Oral Roberts, Belmont, Xavier, Albany and Penn all fit.
• Stay away from the defending champ, unless they’re returning all their starters and have declared that they’re all returning with the idea of repeating as champions.

 

I don’t think the psychology angle is an important one. No amount of inspiration is going to lead a Jackson State past Florida. In general it’s better to focus on who the better teams are. It’s also important in the case of sleepers to determine whether their opponent is actually beatable. But each of these situation is worth looking at and evaluating.

  

The Coach

 

In general coaching comes more into play on Thursday and Friday games and the national semi-finals when the coach has had more than one day to prepare. In games where there’s only been a one-day layoff, I doubt the coach can do much. Another point about college coaches is the coach as a recruiter is probably more important than the coach as a strategist. Because of this, there are some bad game coaches who are very successful in college ball. Also because of this, a good game coach like Pitino, Krzyzewski, Bo Ryan, Izzo or Donavan could have a huge advantage against a coach whose in-game abilities are only so-so, like Roy Williams or Bill Self given a few days or a week to prepare. A lot of this will have to do with matchups, seedings and which teams face which coaches when, but it could come into play.

  

With that, here are the brackets:

 

East

 

The most striking thing about this bracket is the potential, OK there’s nothing potential about it, Texas-North Carolina matchup in the 3^rd round. The best team against the best player. Both teams deserve better. Situations like this is where any outrage should be focused, not the omission of a mediocre Syracuse team. I’ll get to that game in a minute, but first the prelims. In the first round the winners are: North Carolina, Michigan State, Arkansas, Texas, Vanderbilt, Washington State, Boston College and Georgetown. The only upset is Arkansas over USC. I like USC’s talent and I may be forgetting that Tim Floyd was a pretty decent college coach before he bombed in the NBA. But they’re also an erratic bunch without a real PG, playing an underrated team who could be playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the derision of their inclusion in the tournament by many analysts. That looks like an upset scenario to me. I could also see any favorite other than Texas and NC losing in round one, but when it came down to it I went with the favorite. One situation that could produce a big one is Georgetown-Belmont. The Bruins are a team that scores efficiently and should be able to deal with Georgetown’s deliberate pace, since that’s the way they play. They have a pair of centers in Boomer Herndon and Andrew Preston who are both pretty decent players and should be able to slow Hibbert some with their 10 fouls. The reason I’m not taking the upset is because Georgetown has had a strong, albeit short, history with Thompson III in the tournament and because Roy Hibbert is a damn good pro prospect. I know Green has gotten most of the press, and deserves it, but Hibbert is the best big guy this side of Oden and a team with two strong prospects is hard to go against when the other team is so inferior.

 

Look for Carolina, Texas, Washington State and Georgetown to advance in round 2, with the high point being Washington State and Vanderbilt playing the most fundamentally sound game ever played. I also think Washington State has the stuff to knock off Georgetown to get to the final. The Hoyas don’t have much of a backcourt and I suspect given a few days Tony Bennett will figure out a way to beat them. In the big game, Carolina will beat Texas. I know Durant is special, but Carolina is pretty talented also.  I’d like Durant’s chances better against a heavyweight if it wasn’t a running team. As much as Durant does for Texas, Carolina’s pace will have him worn out by late in the game and that should lead to a fairly easy Tar Heel win. Next, North Carolina will knock off Washington State to get to the final four.

 

South

 

This looks like the upset region to me. I’m not that wildly impressed with Ohio State as a #1 or Memphis as a #2. Meanwhile there are a few lower seeds in the South: Nevada, Louisville, Xavier, Albany and Penn; that have strong potential as sleepers. The first round winners are: Ohio State, Xavier, Tennessee, Albany, Louisville, Texas A&M, Nevada and Memphis. OK, Albany’s the only real upset there, but there is potential for more. Albany stands out to me as the most likely first round upset in the tournament. This is a team that has an NBA prospect in PG Jamar Wilson. They also have a strong backcourt and tournament experience. They have an opponent in Virgnia that plays an erratic offense led by a couple of mad bombers in Singletary and Reynolds and lacks the inside game that would give Belmont trouble. Penn would be an attractive underdog in the right situation, but are going against a Texas A&M team that looks to me like the best team in the region.

 

In round two it’s Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Nevada. The Buckeyes have enough to get by a strong Xavier team and the Vols get lucky in drawing Albany in round 2. Louisville gets a draw that’s tougher than they deserve. Nevada is led by a very good player in Fazekas and has a solid enough backcourt. They’re a team led by seniors who have had their share of tournament disappointments. That’s always a good situation for an upset. Memphis is good, but I can’t see that Conference USA battle tested them. Texas A&M will beat Ohio State in the final, simply because they’re the better team. A few months ago, I thought Ohio State would emerge as the favorite to win it all. They had Oden and a backcourt that was two-deep in good players. But they just haven’t developed into one of the elite teams and I think the Aggies have the stuff to knock them off. That’s if the Aggies can get by sleepers Penn, Louisville and Nevada first.

 

 Midwest

 

The most intriguing thing about this region is the potential Florida-Arizona game in round 2. Arizona is one of the most talented teams in the nation, but they’ve struggled since roughly mid-January. There’s another low-seed in this tournament with scary talent and that’s #10 Georgia Tech. In the first round: Florida, Arizona, Butler, Maryland, Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. Winthrop and Davidson are both interesting upset candidates, but I feel Maryland and Notre Dame are too strong to go down early. I’d feel better about UNLV’s senior lineup against Georgia Tech if they had any tournament experience to go along with that.

 

In round 2 it’s Florida, Maryland, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Wisconsin’s lack of NBA-talent will catch up with them sooner rather than later in this tournament. By picking against them early, the risk/reward in any pool is pretty strong. That’s why I’m taking Tech here. Oregon lives and dies by the outside shot and doesn’t have the inside player to stop Rob Kurz, so the Irish advance. Maryland is too good for Butler. Arizona is scary talented and Florida best not slip into the funk that afflicted them during their late Feb. slump, or they’ll get beat here. I’m picking Florida, because I can’t believe Noah, Horford and Brewer won’t show up ready to play after spurning NBA riches for a season with the idea of repeating as champs. That’s also why Florida is my pick to win this region. It won’t be easy, as Maryland is a load and Notre Dame, the team I’m picking to meet them in the regional final, is no slouch either. The 3 Gators came back to win a championship and I can’t see them being upset.

  

West

 

The West has 3 potential coach vs. former team matchups, for whatever that’s worth.  Here are the first round winners: Kansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Southern Illinois, Duke, Pittsburgh, Indiana and UCLA. The top 4 should win fairly easily. The only upset in the first round is Illinois. They have the chip on their shoulder, a good game coach and an opponent in Virginia Tech that has no recent tournament experience. That should be enough to get them to round 2. The Indiana-Gonzaga game is a tossup, mainly because the Zags have a closer-to-home advantage. I don’t think that will matter as much in the first round and the better team should win. Kentucky-Villanova is also a tossup, and I’m only taking Kentucky because their coach is on the hot seat. I could see Duke doing anything from winning the region to losing in round one. They’re a well-coached team with talent that’s good enough to scare any team, but they lack a steady on-court leader and that’s going to hurt their chances.

 

My second round winners are Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh and UCLA, the top 4. After that, I like Pitt and Kansas advancing and Pitt winning the region. There are a few reasons for this. First is the Panthers are a smart, steady team that won’t beat themselves. The main reason is none of the other teams in the region have the big center who can take Aaron Gray out of the game, like Roy Hibbert did in the Big East final and Patrick O’Bryant did in last year’s 2^nd round. The final reason is I just don’t believe in Bill Self as a championship winning coach. He’s struggled for two seasons at Kansas in the tournament and was no great shakes at Illinois before that. He has great talent this year and they’re playing well, but there can’t be a letdown in the tournament and I’m not convinced Self can get it done. If this sounds like Pitt is a default pick, because I don’t like the top seed, maybe that’s the case. But some team is going to win this region and often the team that wins is the survivor. Right now I see Pitt as that team.

 

The Final Four

 

North Carolina and Florida advance fairly easily, though A&M might give the Heels a scare. But Carolina and Florida are the two best teams and I think they’re bound to meet in the final. I’m taking Carolina to win their 2^nd title in 3 seasons. The reason is they’re too good to go against. This is a team that can put a 1^st-round draft pick at all 5 positions and a solid reserve in the 5 backup roles. They have the nation’s best PG and are the nation’s best rebounding team. Florida is hard to go against. I’ve been pulling for them all season, because coming back for another shot like they did was truly admirable and was one of the things that gave college hoops a needed shot in the arm this year. But in the final analysis I have to go with the best team and that’s North Carolina.