Before I get into the teams and the matchups, I wanted to post a couple of tables. The first shows the playoff coaches, the number of series they’ve won and how they’ve each fared with and without the home court advantage. After that it’s a look at whether home court, point differential or head-to-head play during the season matter more in the conference semi-finals and finals.

 

Coach	Record	With HC Adv.	W/O HC Adv
Johnson	4-2	3-1	1-1
D’Antoni	4-2	4-1	0-1
Popovich	18-6	16-4	2-2
Van Gundy	8-8	2-1	6-7
Sloan	16-16	12-6	4-10
Karl	11-15	9-3	2-12
Jackson	44-6	35-1	9-5
Nelson	14-17	9-2	5-15
Saunders	4-9	4-3	0-6
Brown	1-1	1-0	0-1
Mitchell	0-0	0-0	0-0
Riley	40-15	36-8	4-7
Skiles	1-4	0-1	1-3
Frank	2-3	2-0	0-3
Jordan	1-2	0-0	1-2
Hill	5-3	5-2	0-1

 

Of the veteran coaches, Jackson and Popovich are very tough to beat. Jackson is especially good at getting the most out of his team and for this reason the Lakers can’t be counted out. That said, life is much easier for a coach when there’s a couple of superstars on the team and both Jackson and Popovich have benefited from this, so I don’t want to overstate their importance. Most of Riley’s success before last season came with the Lakers in the 80s. All of Hill’s experience was with the Shaq and Penny Magic of the mid-90s. As for the others there’s little evidence that Sloan, Karl and Nelson are difference-makers come playoff time. Van Gundy can be tough as an underdog and Saunders simply hasn’t been a very good playoff coach. For the young guys, it’s too early to tell on most of them whether or not they’re difference-makers, but Skiles isn’t off to a good start.

 

Here’s the history of home court, point differential and H2H factors since the modern playoff format started in 1984. The record shown is the record of the team that had the advantage in each category going into the series:

 

Advantage	Home Court	Point Differential	Head-to-head
Conference Semis	74-18	75-17	49-23
Conference Finals	32-14	31-15	18-12

 

Without HC Advantage	Point Differential	Head-to-head
Conference Semis	6-4	4-14
Conference Finals	4-4	3-3

  

I jumped ahead to the conference semis and finals on this one, because those should be the rounds where most of the action takes place. The reason this will come into play is the situations this year. Dallas has the best record, but is behind both San Antonio and Phoenix in point differential. In the West head-to-head battles, Dallas beat San Antonio, San Antonio beat Phoenix and while Dallas and Phoenix tied, the Suns won the last two games in the stretch run. There’s also Utah, who has a 7-4 record against the big 3 from the West. In the East, Detroit has the best record, but Chicago leads in point differential and won the season series against Detroit. Detroit handled their other main rivals, Cleveland and Toronto OK, but will have to beat Chicago or Miami before meeting one of those two in the finals should everything play to form. I just wanted to throw all that out there before getting into the teams, some situational point differentials and predictions.

 

The East

 

Orlando: Sort of a confounding team. They tore out of the gate, swooned into what looked like a certain finish in the lottery, before blitzing into the playoffs. Here’s a look at the start, middle and finish:

 

Orlando	Record	Point Diff
First 17 games	13-4	4.5
Middle 52 games	18-34	-2.2
Final 13 games	9-4	8.0

 

The thing is, there’s not much rhyme or reason to the wins and losses. The schedule was a little tougher in the middle, but not this much. During the worst part of the swoon, a 7-22 stretch that lasted from 1/12 to 3/12, the Magic beat San Antonio and won road games at Cleveland and Chicago, but lost twice to the Knicks and both games of a back-to-back with Atlanta. I usually don’t put too much stock in fast finishes, because it’s not uncommon for teams to mail it in or start to prepare for next season during April, so a focused team going on a playoff run isn’t that uncommon and definitely not the sign of a team to look out for in the playoffs. I also don’t think much of Brian Hill as a coach, going back to his first run in Orlando. But this team has played well in stretches and has some very impressive wins. They’re capable of giving the Pistons some grief.

 

Washington: They’re toast without Arenas. It’s tough, because had they lost him early in the season they would at least have some ping-pong balls in the Oden-Durant derby to show for it. Now all they get is a beating by the Cavs in round one. Not much to say other than to put up the splits:

 

Washington	Record	Point Diff
With Arenas	39-34	0.1
Without Arenas	2-7	-5.4

 

Honestly, this team was no great shakes with Arenas, but they were entertaining. They don’t even have that now.

 

New Jersey: I guess the most interesting split here is with and without Richard Jefferson who missed 27 games:

 

New Jersey	Record	Point Diff
With Jefferson	30-25	0.0
Without Jefferson	11-16	-2.4

 

Better, but hardly a team that should have the elite of the East shaking in their Nikes. Their 6-1 run to make the playoffs was done with two games against a Wizards team that was missing their two best players, two games against the Knicks, a win at Indiana and a home win vs. the Bulls. In assessing the Nets’ chances, I guess I might buy into their experience and veteran smarts in being an advantage over the youthful Raptors, who are new to the playoffs. But there’s not much in history to suggest experience means more than having the home court. Because of this, I can’t see the Nets getting past round 1.

 

Chicago: The Bulls have the East’s best point differential and this makes them a legitimate threat to win the conference from the 5^th seed. They also have a key player who returned recently in Andres Nocioni, who missed 29 games:

 

Chicago	Record	Point Diff
With Nocioni	31-22	4.5
Without Nocioni	18-11	6.0

 

They’ve actually been a better team during the time Nocioni sat out. This doesn’t mean Nocioni is a bad player, but on the Bulls he plays a lot of PF in a small lineup and, while he adds more perimeter offense, he hurts the team inside. Here’s another split for the Bulls using games where rookie Tyrus Thomas played more than 20 minutes:

 

Chicago	Record	Point Diff
Thomas 20+ minutes	13-3	7.7
Thomas <20 minutes	36-30	4.4

 

Now the reason for this could be that Thomas played in a lot of blowouts that were decided well before he got the bulk of his minutes. But the 16 games included 2 OT games, close wins over San Antonio, Denver and Detroit and a loss to Toronto. Eleven of these games came in March and April when the Bulls were battling for a higher seed. Thomas should be looked at as a potential X-factor. He’s one player with the potential to give his team something they’ve lacked for most of the season, which in the Bulls’ case is some solid inside play. If the Bulls can get 20 or so strong minutes from Thomas every night, they’re going to be a load for any team in the East.

 

Miami: It’s been an uninspired title defense for the champs, but the playoffs are here and the team is intact. Best thing to do is to look at how well they performed when the two stars, Shaq and Wade, were in the lineup together:

 

Miami	Record	Point Diff
With Shaq and Wade	9-8	-1.5
Other games	35-30	-0.8

 

The games with Shaq and Wade include that 42-point loss to the Bulls on opening night, so they’re probably a little better than this. Still, it’s not like last year when it could be shown that the Heat were a pretty strong team during the season when all was intact. This year they look like an overconfident bunch that’s expecting to be able to turn it on once the playoff bell rings. I have serious doubts they’ll be able to do this against a strong team like Chicago that has to be hungry for some playoff success after two seasons of first round exits.

 

Toronto: Since no other team wanted to win the Atlantic the young Raptors stepped up and took the division. For Toronto I looked at how teams that are playoff newbies have fared in past seasons. Here’s a look at how teams playing in their first playoffs after at least three years sitting out fared:

 

	Teams	Advanced past 1st round	Advanced past 2nd round
With HC advantage	8	5	3
W/O HC Advantage	20	6	0

 

While new playoff teams fared poorly in general, losing in 17 of 28 first round series, teams with home court did much better. Since Toronto has the home court in the first round, I doubt the inexperience factor will come into play. What could be a factor is that this team probably isn’t as good as their 47 wins suggest. Their point differential is slightly less than 1 and they played in the league’s weakest division, so the 47 wins came against a slightly easier schedule than Chicago, Cleveland or Detroit faced and a much easier one than that faced by the West heavies. But they won’t have to worry about the big boys of the league until after round one. In round one they get an Atlantic division foe in the Nets and my guess is the Raptors will take advantage of this like they have all season and advance.

 

Cleveland: The Cavs’ season can be broken down into two parts. The first lasted until late January when the team was a respectable, but disappointing 25-19. After that they made Sasha Pavlovic a starter and a permanent part of the rotation and went on a roll:  

 

Cleveland	Record	Point Diff
Before 1/29	25-21	0.8
After 1/29	25-13	7.0

 

Pavlovic had played big minutes in games before, but his place in the rotation became permanent in the 1/30 win over Golden State. Now I’m not saying that Pavlovic is a great player. He’s no more than average. What he did was decrease the minutes of two terrible players, Damon Jones and Eric Snow. Snow’s minutes dropped below 20 per game by March and Jones saw his PT disappear entirely after mid-February. This after both players had been major parts of the team in the first half. While it was fashionable to blame LeBron for the teams’ disappointing start, the real reason was there were a couple of terrible players getting big minutes. That’s been fixed and the Cavs are now looking to me like favorites to take the East. This past Wednesday was a great day for this team. By securing the 2 seed, they got what amounts to a bye in round one against a depleted Wizards team. Followed by a round two matchup against either Toronto or New Jersey, two teams that wouldn’t make it past round one in most years. This while Detroit battles it out with either Chicago or Miami in what should be a rugged series. The Cavs might have the best team in the East and they definitely have the best player. They’re road looks much easier than Detroit’s or Chicago’s and I’m guessing they’ll hit their first ever NBA finals once all is said and done in the East.

 

Detroit: The Pistons are a solid veteran team and are sitting with the number one seed, but I would be very surprised if they held off Cleveland and Chicago this year. The first reason is that Cleveland and Chicago have both been better teams down the stretch and are both young, talented teams with something to prove. In March and April the Pistons were 1-3 in games against the Bulls and Cavs, and 3 of those games were in Detroit. They may get by one of these two teams, but not both. They’re just not that dominant. The second reason is Flip Saunders. The chart above shows he simply hasn’t gotten it done at playoff time. He’s had the top seed twice and failed to make the Finals both times. He’s never led a team to an upset series win in 6 attempts and has lost twice as a top seed. I haven’t checked historically, but he might be the worst playoff coach in NBA history. I can’t give the reason for this. He’s not a bad regular season coach and I doubt he goes into the playoffs with idea of failing, but the numbers don’t lie. To expect a coach with such a weak playoff history to hold off a couple of teams that are playing superior ball is crazy.

 

East Predictions

 

1st round winners: Detroit in 7, Cleveland in 5, Toronto in 7, Chicago in 4

2^nd round: Chicago in 6, Cleveland in 5

Finals: Cleveland in 7; LeBron hits the series clincher from the top left of the circle over Nocioni as time expires.

  

The West

 

Golden State: A couple things to look at here. First is the fact they swept the Mavs 3-0 in the regular season. I wouldn’t place too much on this. The first win was in early November when Dallas was still in their “I can’t believe we just blew the finals” funk. The second win they caught Dallas in the 2^nd game of a two straight on the road and the 3^rd win came with Nowitzki, Howard and Dampier resting. So that’s really not a big deal, just good timing. That out of the way, a look at the team since the deal with Indiana:

 

Golden State	Record	Point Diff
Before Deal	19-21	-1.2
After Deal	23-19	0.4

 

They were improved, but they’re hardly a juggernaut. If you look at the numbers, what fueled the 15-5 finish more than anything was a healthy Jason Richardson being on fire during April. Besides, fast finishes to crash the playoffs as a lower seed rarely result in anything other than a first round exit. There’s also Don Nelson. For all his awards and acclaim, the man just hasn’t been much of a playoff coach during his career. He never got a talented Bucks team past the conference finals in the 80s. His Warriors were entertaining, but erratic in the playoffs and the Mavs became a better playoff team when he was replaced by Avery Johnson. I’ll give him credit for getting this team to the playoffs, but the bottom line is this is still a mediocre team at best that has no real chance of beating Dallas.

 

LA Lakers: They didn’t have the best finish, but they remain a dangerous team and in my mind the WC team most likely to pull off a first round upset. The first thing I want to do is give some appreciation to Lamar Odom for being a damn good player:

 

LA Lakers	Record	Point Diff
With Odom	31-26	1.7
Without Odom	11-14	-3.9

 

With Odom they’re good, but still aren’t close to the best teams. There are still two things to like about the Lakers. The obvious one is they have the best coach. With Jackson at the helm, this team won’t go down quietly. The other is they’ve been a streaky team this year. Going into the playoffs the streak has been a losing one, but in general whether a team is hot or cold going into the playoffs is overrated, particularly if all key players are healthy. The fact that they are streaky suggests they’re capable of going on a nice playoff run. I doubt they can beat the Suns though. As good as Kobe can be, he has yet to show he can carry an otherwise weak team by himself as Jordan used to in the 80s. Also the Suns don’t strike me as the type of team that gets upset in round one.

 

Denver: The big moment in Denver’s season was of course the Iverson trade. They didn’t get to pair him and Anthony right away, but there were enough games the pair played together that a picture of how good this team is started to form:

 

Denver	Record	Point Diff
With AI & CA	20-15	1.2
Other games	25-22	1.9

 

This pairing hasn’t been wildly successful and the team defense looks like it took a slight dip after the trade. Not a good thing, since they tossed the near future out the window to make this deal. The optimist might point to an impressive finish, where they went 10-1, including 3 road wins against teams that were also playing for a playoff spot. There might be something to the theory that Anthony and Iverson finally clicked in those final 11 games and should be a team to fear going into the playoffs.  I don’t buy it though. Iverson has always been overrated as a player who can lift a team up a notch and Karl has never been a coach who could be expected to engineer a big playoff upset. I give Denver a slight chance of getting past the Spurs, but that’s all.

 

Utah: I really don’t know what to make of the Jazz. They started fast, but have been only above average since:

 

Utah	Record	Point Diff
Start	12-1	7.4
Finish	39-30	2.0

 

It’s hard to put them up with the big 3 based on this, but their record against the top 4 seeds in the west is 10-5 and if they can cobble together another run like their streak to start the season, they could play with anyone. That’s the optimistic angle. Realistically there’s no reason to believe this team is anything more than the Jazz of the final 69 games, coached by a guy who hasn’t done anything remarkable in 20 years as a coach. They’re up against it with Houston and whichever team they meet up with in round 2 should they get past the Rockets.

 

Houston: They’re a very good team when the 2 superstars play, but still a notch below the top 3:

 

Houston	Record	Point Diff
With T-Mac and Yao	30-11	6.7
Other games	22-19	2.9
Without McGrady	2-9	-2.2

 

I added the line on McGrady to show that his value to the Rockets is on a level of Nash’s to the Suns, though I doubt he’ll ever get the same credit. Even though they’re not quite on the level of the top 3, the Rockets are a formidable team that could put a scare into Dallas in round 2. Van Gundy seems to relish the underdog role and if Dallas brings something less than their best, the Rockets will take them out. The problem for the Rockets, in addition to keeping their stars healthy, is that even if they do upset a superior team in Dallas, they have another superior team in San Antonio or Phoenix waiting for them. That’s too tough a road and for that reason, I doubt Houston has a serious chance to win it all.

 

San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas: I’m taking these three together. The eventual champion will almost certainly be one of these 3. They’re head and shoulders above the rest of the league and only a fluke would prevent one of them from winning. Since flukes don’t happen 2 seasons in-a-row, I think it’s safe to go with one of these teams. The Spurs have a big edge in point differential and the Mavs have the home court and the fact they won’t meet one of these two until the conference finals in their favor. Here’s how they stack up in games against each other:

 

Team	Record	Point Diff
Dallas	5-3	-1.0
Phoenix	3-4	2.7
San Antonio	3-4	-1.5

 

San Antonio won two of these games in the first week, when the other two stumbled out of the gate. Their other win came in April at home against Phoenix when the issue of seedings had pretty much been decided. In general the Spurs have been the least impressive team in these games. Despite the losing record, Phoenix has probably been the most impressive team. Two of their losses came in the first week, when they started slow. The other two were road losses, by 2 points to Dallas in December and the loss at San Antonio in April. As mentioned above, head-to-head matchups during the season aren’t a huge indicator of how things go in the playoffs. Not even close to home court and point differential. But I think it is important to note that in the big games late in the year, when something was on the line, Phoenix was the most impressive team.

 

I believe it will come down to Phoenix and Dallas. The Spurs are an excellent team and a threat to take the title, but the fact that the Spurs have won multiple titles and the other two are after their first gives them a hunger that could provide that extra edge. At least that’s the angle I’m thinking now.

The problem with predicting this is the West could unfold in any number of ways. The East seems almost cut-and-dried by comparison. The key team is the Rockets. If they lose to Utah in round one, I think all else will go as planned and Dallas will meet Phoenix in the finals, with Dallas advancing. If Houston beats Utah, as expected, I suspect they’ll find a way to upset Dallas, before falling to Phoenix in the final.

 

West Predictions

 

1^st round: Dallas in 4, Phoenix in 6, San Antonio in 6, Houston in 5

2^nd round: Houston in 6, Phoenix in 5

Finals: Phoenix in 7

 

So I’m going to go with the Suns to come out on top in the West and beat the Cavs in 5 games for their first championship. Logic says go with San Antonio or Dallas, but I picked the Suns and Cavs at the start of the season and I’ll stick with that. The Suns have been tough when they needed to be and have lost consecutive conference finals. They look to me like a team with the right mix of coach, players and situation to break through this season.