Thankfully, the playoffs are finally upon us.  The playoffs don't usually have too many surprises but, somehow, we end with some fairly exciting games.  Most people have the true NBA Finals pegged as the potential match up between the Mavericks and Spurs, the two best teams in the league.  I don't necessarily disagree.  Still, we have a long way until we get there and a lot could happen.  Here's the annual first round preview:

 

Eastern Conference

 

1.    Piston v. Magic:  The East is still not very good and really hasn't had been since Michael Jordan retired.  I think the Pistons are the likely favorite but they clearly have some cracks.  This is Detroit's worst record since 2002-03 (before they acquired Rasheed Wallace) but their round one match up is not that scary.  As good as Dwight Howard is right now (and might yet become) the Pistons should have more than enough big bodies to reduce his effectiveness.  On the other side, Orlando has no match up for Rip Hamilton, let alone Chauncey Billups.  I expect this to be a clean sweep.  Pistons wins 4-0.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  Orlando's last playoff appearance was in 2002-03, when they were a plucky eight seed that went against the one seed Pistons.  Sound familiar?  At that time, Orlando had Tracy McGrady and not much else.  T-Mac got really hot and actually led the Magic to a 3-1 series lead, only to watch Detroit disassemble them the next three games.  Ironically, the NBA had just changed the first round from best of five to best of seven and Orlando lost out on a great upset.

 

Orlando and Detroit also met in the playoffs back in 1995-96.   The Magic were a contender led by Shaquille O'Neal and Anfernee Hardaway (who was at his peak of  21.7 ppg, 7.1 apg, 4.3 rpg).  Detroit was the seven-seed, and had a promising young team with vet Joe Dumars and the two young scorers in Allan Houston and Grant Hill.  Doug Collins had led the 1995-96 Pistons to a huge turnaround (from 28-54 to 46-36).  The Magic was heavily favored but the series had some buzz because in a late regular season game at against the Pistons, Magic reserve Anthony Bowie had a called a timeout with 2.7 seconds left and his team up by almost 20 so that he could try to get a final assist to earn his first career triple-double.

 

Collins, never known for his calm demeanor, took Bowie's actions as a tad insensitive and refused to put his team back on the court after the time out.  Bowie got his assist with no Pistons on the court and earned Collins' extreme antipathy.  Bowie explained his actions thusly:  "You only get so many opportunities, and that's why I did it. Whether they're going to move over or whatever they're going to do, I'll take it. It's all the same.  I ran over to tell Doug Collins the situation, that it was a great opportunity for me, but that I didn't want to make anybody mad.  He didn't listen."   

 

Bowie's coach, Brian Hill (who is the Magic coach now), apologized for the situation but Shaq didn't: "[Bowie] was in the CBA. A lot of people thought he couldn't make it. He got a chance. He came over here, and that's his first career triple-double. I'm glad for him and could care less if Doug Collins got mad."  Collins was not happy at all and many thought that the series might be a bit inspired as a result.  The Magic, however, were too good and swept the Pistons 3-0. 

2.    Cavaliers v. Wizards:    There isn't too much to say here.  The Cavs can be a vulnerable team but the Wiz, without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, aren't going to be the ones to take them out.  This is a shame because the Wiz actually had the best record in the conference at one point and a shot at winning their division.  Both those chances are out the window and we miss a bona fide rematch of last year's rousing LeBron-Arenas shoot out.  The Wiz are so short handed at this point that we can expect the broom on this one.  Cavaliers win 4-0.

When they last met in the playoffs:  We all remember.  It was last year's first round was a run-n-gun series where Arenas put up 34 ppg and LeBron was over 30 ppg as well.  While we're here, I thought it'd be interesting to contemplate the theoretical question of whether the LeBron-led Cavs are better than the Mark Price-led team of the early 1990s.  This year's Cavs were a solid 50-32 and the old Cavs were, at their peak, 57-25 in 1991-92.  So, it would seem based upon record alone that the 1991-92 version is a good deal better.  Indeed, a position-by-position comparison highlights the depth disparity:

-PG: Mark Price (17.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 7.4 apg, 22.7 PER) v. Eric Snow (4.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 8.6 PER)

-SG: Craig Ehlo (12.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 apg, 13.8 PER) v. Larry Hughes (14.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 12.1 PER)

-SF:  Hot Rod Williams (11.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 18.6 PER) v. LeBron James (27.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 6.0 apg, 24.5 PER)

-PF:  Larry Nance (17.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 21.4 PER) v. Drew Gooden (11.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, 16.5 PER)

-C:    Brad Daugherty (21.5 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 3.6 apg, 23.0 PER) v. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (11.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.6 apg, 18.1 PER)

 

This side-by-side does ignore the benches but we'll reference it where applicable.  The 91-92 Cavs had a rookie Terrell Brandon, extending the point guard advantage by several more miles.  Two guard is a push, Hughes is more athletic but Ehlo still matches his production and shoots better too.  This year's team has some good bench players up front in Donyell Marshall and Anderson Varejao.  Even with them, however, the 1991-92 Cavs are better at center and power forward by a large margin.  So, unless LeBron played out of this world (which isn't impossible), I'd like the old Cavs in six. 

 

3.    Raptors v. Nets:    One of two interesting first round series in the East.  The Nets are probably better than they look, as they were missing Nenad Krstic and Richard Jefferson for most of the year and RJ hasn't really been healthy even when he does play.  The Raptors pulled away from the Nets when RJ went down and have been playing much stronger in the second half (34-17 since January 1st).  The Raptors' team stats don't really jump out at you, they are outrebounded by their opponents and don't shoot particularly well.  The Raps actually play best at the point guard.  They have the second fewest turnovers per game (12.9) and force many (14.5). 

 

The Raptors will try to give the Nets problems by running with their little point guards against the bigger, slower Jason Kidd.  The Nets have had serious problems guarding fast little guards this year.  Indeed, Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford hurt the Nets more than the star forward Chris Bosh.  As for the Nets, they need Vince Carter to keep playing like he has the last month, where he's been as good as any two guard in the NBA, and for RJ to play close to his optimal healthy form.

 

Vince Carter's return to Toronto is the most interesting subplot of the series.  VC is pretty much despised in Toronto for his dogging it a to get out of town.  I don't know how bad the situation was but you have to think that if management had tried to work it out with Carter, they'd have a really, really good team now (imagine the instant Raptor team but with Carter in place of Anthony Parker).  That's not to say that VC was easy to deal with.  Carter's casual body language, even when things are going well, can be really annoying but the Raptors did not do great on that deal.  The whole VC-Raptor affair may serve as a nice reminder to the Wolves with Kevin Garnett to not trade your star unless you get something of value.

 

As for the series itself, this'll be tight.  Toronto is such a good home team and match up well with Kidd that I think they'll squeak by.  Raptors win 4-3.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  They've never met before, so I'll digress a little bit.  Don't you figure that the Nets as a 41-41 sixth seed, have the worst record for such a seed in NBA history?  Not quite.  Here's a list of the worst and best records for each seed since the NBA went to the current playoff format in 1983-84 (if the seed record is altered in some cases because of the new three-division format that has been in effect since 2004-05, we'll give the best/worst pre-2004-05 seed as well):

 

Best One Seed:  East, Chicago 1995-96 (72-10)

                            West, L.A. Lakers 1999-00 and Dallas 2006-07 (67-15)

Best Two Seed:  East, Miami 1996-97 (61-21)

                            West, Sonics 1997-98 and Phoenix 2006-07 (61-21)

Best Three Seed:  East, Philadelphia 1984-85 (58-24)

                                West, L.A. Lakers 1997-98 and Utah 1998-99 (61-21) (1998-99 records pro-rated from 50-game to 82-game season)

Best Four Seed:    East, Atlanta 1996-97 (56-26)

                               West, Dallas 2005-06 (60-22), pre-2004-05, 1994-95 Seattle and 2001-02 Dallas (57-25)

Best Five Seed:    East, Detroit 1996-97 (54-28)

                              West, San Antonio 1997-98 (56-26)

Best Six Seed:      East, Charlotte 1996-97 (54-28)

                              West, Houston 1990-91 (52-30)

Best Seven Seed: East, Philadelphia 1988-89 and Detroit 1995-96 (46-36)

                               West, Portland 2000-01 (50-32)

Best Eight Seed:   East Washington 1996-97 and New York 1998-99 (44-38)(1998-99 records pro-rated from 50-game to 82-game season)

 

Worst One Seed:  East, Detroit 2002-03 (50-32)

                               West, L.A. Lakers 1983-84 (54-28)

Worst Two Seed:  East, New Jersey 2003-04 (47-35)

                               West, Utah 1983-84 (45-37)

Worst Three Seed: East, Boston 2004-05 (45-37), pre-2004-05, Indiana 2002-03 (48-34)

                                 West, Denver 2005-06 (44-38), pre-2004-05, Denver 1985-86 (47-35)

Worst Four Seed:   East, Miami 2003-04 (42-40)

                                West, Dallas 1983-84 (43-39)

Worst Five Seed:   East, New Orleans 2003-04 (41-41)

                                West, Seattle 1983-84, Portland 1984-85, Utal 1985-86, Golden State 1986-87 (42-40)

Worst Six Seed:     East, Washington 1985-86 (39-43)

                                West, Portland 1985-86 and Minnesota 1996-97 (40-42)

Worst Seven Seed: East, Washington 1987-88 (38-44)

                                 West, Sacramento 1985-86 (37-45)

Worst Eight Seed:   East, Chicago 1985-86 (30-52)

                                  West, San Antonio 1987-88 (31-51)

 

4.    Heat v. Bulls:    Weird season for both the teams.  We all remember the Heat getting blown out by 40 by the Bulls on opening night.  Since then, both teams have been up and down.  The Bulls were peaking of late, only to have a terrible last week of the season.  The Bulls are a younger deeper team than the Heat.  The only real x-factor is Dwyane Wade.  If he's somewhat healthy, the Heat win. If not, they don't. 

 

Last year, even with a healthy Wade, the Bulls extended the Heat to six games in the first round.  Without really knowing where Wade is physically, you have to think that the teams are passing in the night.  The younger Bulls have enough big bodies to slow down Shaq and the Bulls are much deeper in the backcourt (though they aren't a great scoring team either).  The frehser squad will take this one and Pat Riley will be left thinking about how get a little more athletic this summer.  Bulls win 4-3.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  See above regarding the 2005-06 match up.  The Heat and Bulls have met three other times as well and Jordan took them out each time:

 

-1991-92:  A 67-win Bulls team sweeps eighth seed Heat, who have a nice young core (Glen Rice, Steve Smith, Rony Seikaly).

-1995-96:  Riley's first year with the Heat.  He remade the team on the fly and squeaked a good team with a bunch of new players (Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Rex Chapman).  The Heat hung tough but were overwhelmed by the 72-win juggernaut Bulls and were swept again.

-1996-97:  The height of the Mourning/Hardaway team.  They made it to the Conference Finals but were, again, dispatched by the 69-win Bulls, 4-1.  I most remember his series for Dennis Rodman's incessant attempts to annoy Mourning. 

 

Oddly enough, the winner of each past Bulls-Heat series has gone on to win the title.  Can't see that streak extended this year.

 

Western Conference

 

1.    Dallas v. Golden State:    I know, the Warriors are 4-0 against the Mavs.  To reinforce this point, the Warriors were 3-1 against the Mavs in 2005-06 too, when Don Nelson wasn't even affiliated with the organization.  Even if you assume that Warriors match up well with the MAvs, I don't think that Warriors have much of a shot.  The Warriors are a small squad and that only really invites the Dallas to go with Dirk Nowitzki at center and Josh Howard at the power forward.  The Warriors might keep it close but the Mavs will take this thing without breaking too much of a sweat.  Dallas wins 4-1.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  They've never met before.

 

2.    Phoenix v. L.A. Lakers:  The Lakers and Suns have quite a history.  Last year's first round series featured the Lakers taking a 3-1 lead, Raja Bell horse collaring Kobe Bryant, and a crazy comeback for the Suns.  This year things don't look quite as good for the Lakers.  They're limping into the playoffs and the Suns are better than last year now that Amare Stoudemire is back.  The series will be fun because we now very well from Jack McCallum's ":07 Seconds or Less" that the Suns and Lakers are not friendly.  Mike D'Antoni doesn't care for Phil Jackson's courtside manner and nobody really likes Kobe.

 

This rematch reminds of the Celtics-Pacers battles of the early 1990s.  In 1990-91, the young Pacers nearly knocked off Celts and Reggie Miller and Chuck Person talked much trash to their elders.  It took a heroic Game 5 from Larry Bird for the Celts to get out of the series.  In 1991-92, the Celtics found themselves matched up, again, with the brash Pacers in the first round.  The anticipated rematch disappointed.  The Celtics smoked the Pacers 3-0.  I expect the Suns-Lakers rematch to end similarly.  Phoenix wins 4-1.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  See above.  Still, the Lakers and Suns have played often in the playoffs.  Here are their match ups since 1983-84:

 

-2005-06:  Phoenix beats L.A. 4-3 in first round

-1999-00:  L.A. beats Phoenix 4-1 in second round

-1992-93: Phoenix beats L.A. 3-2 in first round

-1989-90: Phoenix beats L.A. 4-1 in second round

-1988-89: L.A. beats Phoenix 4-0 in third round

-1984-85: L.A. beats Phoenix 3-0 in first round

-1983-84: L.A. beats Phoenix 4-2 in third round

 

3.    San Antonio v. Denver:  The Nuggets are a fun team with some interesting players.  The Spurs are not nearly as thrilling as Denver but they are a terrible match up for the Nuggets.  The Spurs have done quite well slowing down running teams, which is really bad news when Tim Duncan is in the middle.  I don't see the Nuggets having any chance in this one.  Their best hope is that the Spurs historically give a game or two to lower seeds.  San Antonio wins 4-1.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  Think back to 2004-05...the Spurs, who look very much like the current version, beat the Nuggets 4-1 in an uneventful series.

 

4.    Utah v. Houston:  The one really hard series to call.  The Jazz are good but have struggled lately.  The Rockets are not very deep but have the best guard (McGrady) and the best big man (Yao Ming).  The Jazz went 3-1 against Houston this year.  Still, you have to wonder who will guard T-Mac.  The Jazz's biggest weakness has been the two guard for several years and McGrady is going to real hurt them.  The Rockets will need T-Mac to exploit that advantage.  McGrady, coupled with home court, will be the difference.  Houston wins 4-3.

 

When they last met in the playoffs:  The Rockets and Jazz battled quite a bit in the 1990s.  Most recently, the teams met in 1997-98.  At that time, the Jazz were the top seed and met an aging, limping Rockets team in the first round built around Hakeem Olajuwon, Charles Barkley, and Clyde Drexler.  The Rockets gave the Jazz quite a headache, winning the first game in Utah and going up 2-1.  In Game 4, the Rockets were playing quite well when Barkley blew out his elbow and was done for the series.  The Jazz took advantage and won the final two games and ultimately ended up losing to the Bulls on Jordan's famous shot in the NBA Finals.  Had Barkley not been hurt, however, that Jazz's run would've ended a bit sooner.

 

The Rockets and Jazz also met in 1993-94 (Rockets won 4-1 in the conference finals), 1994-95 (Rockets won 3-2 in a dramatic first round), and 1996-97 (Jazz won 4-2 in the conference finals, in a series the featured a crazy buzzer beater for Eddie Johnson and John Stockton).

 

Predictions Beyond the First Round

 

Second Round

Detroit over Chicago

Cleveland over Toronto

Dallas over Houston

San Antonio over Phoenix

 

Third Round

Detroit over Cleveland

San Antonio over Dallas

 

Finals

San Antonio over Detroit