HOOPSANALYST
Playoffthoughts
by Harlan Schreiber (4/26/07)
1. Washington-Cleveland: Really not much to say about this one. The Wiz were game but just don't have the firepower to match up with Cleveland without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. At this point, the Wiz's are looking at moral victories (i.e. one win in Washington). I was trying to think of other instances of a team losing its best player(s) right before the playoffs like this for some historical perspective:
-1991-92, Spurs v. Suns: 1991-92 was a crazy year for the Spurs. They were led by a third-year All-Star David Robinson and coach Larry Brown. Brown quit/was fired in the middle of the year (his departure from the Spurs was a point of much debate). Still, things were pretty good in Spurs land even after Brown left. The Spurs were 42-26 when the real problem happened, Robinson broke his wrist. He was replaced in the middle by backup Antoine Carr. The Spurs weren't a bad team without DRob (Rod Strickland, Willie Anderson, Sean Elliott, and Terry Cummings) but Robinson was obviously the key (24.6 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, and Defensive Player of the Year). The Spurs went 5-11 thereafter and limped into the playoffs at 47-35. The Spurs drew the Suns, a team that wasn't quite as good as a healthy Spurs' team but still pretty tough (Kevin Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, and Tom Chambers). The Suns ended up sweeping the Spurs 3-0, winning by an average of nine points per game in the series.
-1999-00, Suns v. Spurs: This was a truly weird series, in terms of the injuries. Once again, we had the Spurs and Suns meeting in the 4-5 seed series. This time, however, both teams lost their best player. The Spurs were defending champs but they lost Tim Duncan (23.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 24.8 PER) with a knee tear late in the season. On the Suns' side, they lost Jason Kidd (14.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 10.1 apg, 18.4 PER) with a broken ankle, which also occurred late in the year. Both teams ended up 53-29 but with glaring holes in their lineups. The Spurs were trying to get by with Samaki Walker in place of Duncan. The Suns improvised a little better by plucking recently-retired Kevin Johnson out of retirement. How did the replacements do in the playoff series?
-Samaki Walker: 30.3 mpg, 9.0 ppg, .452 FG%, 11.3 rpg, 0.5 apg
-Kevin Johnson: 23.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg, .308 FG%, 3.0 rpg, 4.8 apg
KJ actually ended up splitting time with Randy Livingston and formed a pretty solid point guard tandem. Samaki rebounded almost up to Duncan levels. Neither he, nor anyone else, could make up for Duncan's points. The Suns ended up taking the series 3-1, with a series point margin of 1.3 ppg.
2. Denver-San Antonio: Nice bounce back for the Spurs. The Nuggets showed themselves to be a pretty tough team but they can't beat the Spurs if Duncan and Tony Parker get a reasonably efficient game. It has been further noted that the Spurs don't usually have a breeze in the first round during the Duncan Years. This is more true thanI realized. Let's check out the Spurs' first round results the last few years:
-1997-98, Spurs beat Suns 3-1: Both teams went 56-26 and it was anyone's series. Duncan stole home court advantage with a big Game 1 and the Spurs rolled from there. San Antonio lost to the Jazz 4-1 in the next round.
-1998-99, Spurs beat T-Wolves 3-1: The Spurs were the number one seed and played a .500 T-Wolves team in the first round. Minnesota actually won Game 2 in San Antonio with excellent defense (the Spurs scored only 70 points). This was to no avail as the Spurs took the next two in Minnesota and went on to win the title.
-1999-00, Suns beat Spurs 3-1: Duncan was out with a knee injury (see above).
-2000-01, Spurs beat T-Wolves 3-1: Once again a one seed Spurs met the Wolves. The Wolves, again, were not swept, winning Game 3 in Minnesota. Ultimately, the Lakers swept the Spurs 4-0 in the Conference Finals.
-2001-02, Spurs beat Sonics 3-2: The Spurs were a two seed but struggled in the series. First, the lost Game 2 at home. Then, the Sonics won Game 4 when Duncan left the team to go to his father's funeral. Duncan returned for the deciding game to rout Seattle by 23. The Spurs lost to the Lakers in the next round 4-1.
-2002-03, Spurs beat Suns 4-2: The Spurs played another tough eight seed and lost the first game at home on a bank shot heave by Stephon Marbury but would go on to take four of the next five games. The Spurs would go on to win their second title.
-2003-04, Spurs beat Grizzlies 4-0: The third seeded Spurs pretty much smoked the first Memphis playoff team. Unlike some prior lower seeds, the Grizz did not have the athletic scoring point guard of the Wolves (Terrell Brandon), Sonics (Gary Payton), or Suns (Marbury). The Spurs lost to the Lakers in the next round 4-2 (blowing a 2-0 lead).
-2004-05, Spurs beat Nuggets 4-1: The second seeded Spurs lost Game 1 in their own building to Denver and go on to win four straight. The Spurs would end up winning their third title.
-2005-06, Spurs beat Kings 4-2: The Spurs were the one seed and, again, struggled with the eight seed. This time, the Kings fell behind 2-0 and won the next two at home. The Spurs would lose 4-3 to the Mavs in a tight second round series.
What do we learn from all this? First, a Spurs' sweep in the first round is rare event. By contrast, the Michael Jordan title teams never lost a first round game (excluding the 1993-95 seasons, when MJ was playing baseball and making his comeback). Second, the fact that Spurs blew home game isn't a big deal. Hell, they've won titles each time this has happened.
3. Warriors-Mavericks: Chippy, chippy, chippy. Though the game got out of hand by the fourth quarter, it was clear that the Mavs took the Warriors very seriously and that the Warriors really wanted to win the game. The knee jerk reaction is that the Warriors lost because they couldn't sustain their three-point barrage from game one. In fact, the Warriors didn't shoot that well from three in game one (10-30) but they were horrific last night (4-20). Really, the Warriors won game one on defense, holding the Mavs to 35%. This time, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jerry Stackhouse shot much better and the Mavs were at 50% as a team. While the Warriors win was convincing in game one, you have to think that the Mavs' response was even more resounding and they are going to California thinking that the game one was the clear aberration.
A few more side points:
-Everyone was screaming that Avery Johnson made a mistake by benching Erick Dampier and letting the Warriors dictate the tempo. While I don't think playing Devean George so much is a great idea, the Warriors get way too many easy baskets when Dampier is on the floor. The quicker DeSagna Diop was much more effective. George did also negate Al Harrington's offensive fairly well. Dampier will get his shot against against the Rockets but this is not his series.
-You hate to think about psychological edges because talent is the name of the game but both Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson really had no reason to be so frustrated as to meltdown last night. Stephen Jackson couldn't shut up, even after his ejection, and is at risk of suspension (though I imagine he'll only be fined). Davis' transgressions were a little less blatant but he had to know he was pushing it. Indeed, Reggie Miller on television correctly called this ejection before Davis was actually tossed. The Warriors should have been acting like they were playing with house money last night and they did reveal a sense of desperation that could only be encouraging to the Mavs. I'm not saying that this will be the root cause of any Dallas victories but it doesn't help Golden State.
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