It was a long and tough first-round this year and several of the round one losers are in for some significant changes.  Here's how we viewed the losing teams and what they should be doing going forward:

 

-Orlando Magic:    Was this a good year or a disappointing year.  The Magic had a great start to the year (they started our 13-4 and were up to 22-14 in early January) but barely got into the playoffs at 40-42 and didn't show too much against the Pistons in the first round.  In the larger scheme of things, however, this season was a nice jump for the Magic, a team that hasn't sniffed the playoffs since 2002-03.  The Magic have some clear issues going forward this summer, let's take a look:

 

Should Brian Hill be fired?

 

Magic executives have started to make public comments right after the playoffs to the effect that Hill might not be back next year (even though he has a contract).  In addition, the execs noted that they wanted to see the Magic play a more exciting brand of basketball.  Orlando was near the bottom of the NBA in points scored but was actually pretty tough defensively.  In short, they were a slow down team (26th out 30 in pace factor).  Hill has had slow teams most of his coaching career (the only exceptions being the his 1995-96 Magic and the 1997-98 Grizzlies).  Frankly, the 2006-07 Magic weren't really born to run as much as they were to set it up to have Dwight Howard overpower people (even though he's not exactly smooth in the low post). 

 

The Magic might be able to become a running team but not with Hedo Turkoglu, Tony Battie, and an aging Grant Hill.  So, firing Hill on that basis isn't really fair.  Hill may survive this but his credibility is not high with the players, who have to have noticed that he's far from a long term option for management.  Hill's done fine as a coach and I'd probably let him stick it out for the next season but he's obviously on the short list of coaches to be fired at some point in 2007 or 2008.

 

Sign Darko?

 

It would've been nice to see Hill play Darko Milicic a little more so that the team could make a stronger assessment on whether to re-sign him this summer.  It is indisputable, however, that Darko looked lost a lot of the time so you understand Hill's reluctance.  Darko's final numbers were decent (8.0 ppg, .454 FG%, 5.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg all in 23.9 mpg).  Milicic is young but his age-based comps are bona fide NBA players but not an inspiring lot (Benoit Benjamin, Chris Mihm, Nenad Krstic, Tony Battie).  So, what you have is a 22-year old center who looks like he'll be pretty average, at worst, and maybe a bit above average.  The going market for this type of player ain't cheap (about $10 million per year).  The rumor is that Orlando will offer him a three-year $24 million deal.  The money sounds about right but the Magic should be willing to go five years on a young player like this.  The risk is not huge (even Benoit was solid until age-27) and you'd hate to lose a potential asset for nothing--particularly when you have the cap room to give him.  A sign-and-trade could work but losing Darko for nothing would be a setback.

 

Sign Grant?

 

Man that was a long contract.  $93 million dollars for seven years and 200 games (about $465,000 per game).  As we've said before, the Magic did everything right in nabbing a Hall of Fame player in his prime it just turned out about as bad as it could anyway.  Hill actually played near a full season this year and could probably command $5 million mid level exception on the open market.  For the Magic and Hill, I think a clean break is in order.  Hill needs to be a bench player on a good team and the Magic need to forget about a good deal that just went all wrong.

 

Cap Room

 

Yup, they got some.  And they have some needs too.  The Magic need to get more athletic, particularly if they actually want to speed up the pace.  The names mentioned most prominently are free agents Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis.  Both players would obviously help, though Carter is a bit old to throw into the mix for a long-term deal.  The other thing to watch is the Darko situation.  The Magic's cap number is low ($39 million right now) but Milicic, if he returns, will reduce that number quite significantly.

 

-Washington Wizards:  It was a tough ending for the Wiz, who probably could've had a decent playoff run had Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler not fallen apart.  There isn't too much to say.  After Arenas and Butler went down in early April, the Wiz finished the year 2-7.  Had the been healthy, the Wiz were an exciting but middle-of-the-pack team that had a shot of getting to round two (instead, the Nets rudely took that route).  I can only imagine that the Wiz will stay the course and hope to add a little more depth somewhere (their bench is decent but not great).

 

The only real issue is whether Antawn Jamison will opt out of his deal.  Like fellow Tar Heel Vince Carter, Jamison has a player option at about $16.4 million for next year.  It's not clear that Jamison could get $16.4 in the open market but he is 30 and coming off of a huge playoffs.  So, he probably is in a better position to get a long term deal now than at 31 next summer and the Wiz really need to keep him at this point (unless they use his salary slot to sign a big, younger name this summer).   

 

-Los Angeles Lakers:    What do you do when you have an inner circle Hall of Famer in his prime but your team can't get out of the first round.  Frankly, the Lakers were lucky to make the playoffs out west.  So how do you make this team a contender?  Here's a look at some inner circle players who were stuck on teams that couldn't win 50 games or get out of the first round while they were in their primes and how the stories turned out (we'll exclude Kevin Garnett, who is in the same boat as Kobe) :

 

(a) Hakeem Olajuwon, 1991-92:  The Rockets slumped to 42-40 in 1991-92 and missed the playoffs.  Olajuwon was 29 and not happy in Houston.  The Rockets weren't overly talented and were trying to rebuild after the Ralph Sampson decline/trade a few years earlier.  How did they get out of the tailspin?  First, they changed coaches to Rudy Tomjanovich, then they drafted Robert Horry and, more importantly, Hakeem found another gear:

 

1991-92: 21.6 ppg, .502 FG%, 12.1 rpg, 2.2 apg

1992-93: 26.1 ppg, .529 FG%, 13.0 rpg, 3.5 apg

 

The Rockets would then nab Sam Cassell in the 1993 draft and would go on to win two titles and be perennial contenders for another five years.

 

(b)  Allen Iverson, 2005-06: We all remember this well.  Iverson and the team began feuding and he was traded for cap relief.

(c)  Patrick Ewing, 1990-91:  The Garden was a mess.  Ewing was playing great 26.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg) but the team was 39-43 and got utterly demolished by the Bulls in the first round of the playoffs.  Ewing was about to opt out of his contract that summer but then the Knicks hired Pat Riley and found John Starks and Anthony Mason from the free talent pile.  The Knicks proceeded to make it to, at least, the second round of the playoffs for the rest of Ewing's career in New York.

(d) Charles Barkley, 1991-92:  Barkley was a dominant force for the Sixers but his supporting cast had completely eroded (Ron Anderson and an injured Johnny Dawkins were among the better players).  As usual, the star and the team feuded.  The stalemate was broken by trading Barkley to Phoenix for Jeff Hornacek and trinkets.

(e)  Clyde Drexler, 1992-93:  As the Blazers aged and fell from contender status, they tried hard to replenish their talent supply with Rod Strickland, Clifford Robinson, and Chris Dudley.  It wasn't enough.  Drexler didn't vociferously complain but the Blazers decided to let him go for cap relief (Otis Thorpe and Aaron Mckie).  Drexler was perhaps the only one of this group to part with his old team on good terms.

(f)  Tracy McGrady, 2003-04:  T-Mac is the closest match with Kobe.  Like Kobe, he scored a ton and found himself losing in the first round four years in a row.  The team fell apart in 2004-05 and the Magic traded McGrady in a hasty deal (for Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobely, and Kelvin Cato). 

 

It seems that the options for the Lakers are limited.  Ewing and Olajuwon stuck around long enough to get good teams by (a) getting a good coach and (b) plucking some nice free talent.  The Lakers already have a great coach so you have to wonder if they can snag that free talent to get to the next level (a la Starks and Mason or Horry and Cassell).  In the Lakers' case, a developing Andrew Bynum would surely qualify as potential free talent snag.  But they still need more.

 

Apart from that, the Lakers are hoping to acquire Garnett or Jermaine O'Neal.  The problem is they'd probably have to give up Lamar Odom and Bynum to get a deal done.  In either case, they'll really need to hit on their draft pick this year to build up the talent base and the odds are against the Lakers seriously contending with this Kobe-based team. 

 

-Denver Nuggets:    Are the Nuggets an up and comer or a decent team stuck on the treadmill?  The team is capped out so unless they get really lucky or make a great trade, the Nuggets should look the same for the next year or two.  I'm somewhat cynical about the Nuggets because I wonder where the improvement will come from.  Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby are getting into their 30s and will hit the decline phase soon.  Iverson will be 32 and while I know he's a physical freak, I can't think of any smallish guards who played like All-Stars past 32 or 33.  Camby is also at an inflection point, though he too is a unique player (his top comp, Hot Rod Williams completely collapsed at age 33).  

 

Assuming Camby and Iverson decline a bit (and not a lot), the Nuggets will need in-house improvement to counteract this.  Obviously, Carmelo Anthony will be very good for the foreseeable future but who else?  I don't see Nene as anything more than a solid starter and not as good as Camby's peak.  In short, I see more treadmill for Denver.  The Nuggets will be pretty good next year but it'll be a battle to get the fourth seed to get to Round Two.  This team just doesn't have the ceiling to compete with San Antonio, Phoenix, or Dallas.

 

-Houston Rockets:    Tough series for the Rockets.  Losing Game 7 at home, even if they lost to a good team in a good game, will cause waves.  In this case, it looks like Jeff Van Gundy won't be coming back as coach.  Van Gundy has already been in Houston for four years and hasn't won a first round series yet.  There has been discernable progress in Houston but you understand that in the NBA four years without a playoff series victory may be enough to get the boot.  Van Gundy has also had a pretty acute sense of when to get out of town, as we remember well from his New York days.

 

No matter what happens with the coaching situation, Houston will have to improve their depth.  The Rockets are up around the cap number but they've gotten little outside of T-Mac and Yao Ming.  This should be a fixable situation but a solid point guard and another big forward would really help.

 

-Miami Heat:  Old, old, old.  The Heat's finish was directly related to the coordinated decline of many of the older players.  Antoine Walker and Gary Payton, in particular, went from average to putrid.  Eddie Jones came back and was okay but you have to think his end is also near.  The badly team needs an injection of youth.  Pat Riley wasn't able to this when the old Tim Hardaway/Alonzo Mourning team aged quickly.  Rather, Riles kept trying to add more and more veterans to arrest the decline.  He certainly has that opportunity again.  Jason Williams has only one year left on his deal (at $9 million) and Toine has two more guaranteed years left for a total of about $18 million. 

 

If Riley was willing to assume a massive contract (i.e. Stephon Marbury) the Heat could get a little younger in its core, if not cheaper.  As poorly as this plan worked for the Heat in the early 2000s, as long as Dwyane Wade is around and Shaq is quasi-ambulatory, picking up an overpriced younger player isn't a terrible idea. 

 

This leads the most interesting question:  how much does Shaq have left?  His contract has $60 million left but he's shown some serious decline himself:

 

Year	Age	Games	MPG	PPG	FG%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	PER
2002-03	30	67	37.8	27.5	0.574	11.1	3.1	0.6	2.4	29.5
2003-04	31	67	36.8	21.5	0.584	11.5	2.9	0.5	2.5	24.4
2004-05	32	73	34.1	22.9	0.601	10.4	2.7	0.5	2.3	27.0
2005-06	33	59	30.6	20.0	0.600	9.2	1.9	0.4	1.8	24.4
2006-07	34	40	28.4	17.3	0.591	7.4	2.0	0.2	1.4	21.7

 

The trend line here is straight down.  Most worrisome is Shaq's inability to play.  As much as he's always had lulls in the regular season, Shaq's mere presence was worth so many wins that he made the playoff positioning less of an issue.  Now, Shaq can't stay healthy and has been a foul machine when he is available to play (averaging 5 fouls per 40 minutes).  His blocks and steals are also falling (another indication of loss of quickness).  Shaq should be useful enough next year but, as noted above, the Heat should be willing restock with overpaid players, to make a run or two more.

 

-Toronto Raptors:  The Raptors have nothing to be ashamed of in 2006-07.  The loss to the Nets might sting a little but that was more of function of bad timing: the Nets got healthy and the Raptors were hurting, which closed any talent gap.  The Raptors' biggest off-season decision relates to free agent coach Sam Mitchell.  All indications are that Bryan Colangelo will lowball Mitchell and force him out of time.  Colangelo hasn't been shy about getting rid of coaches in Phoenix, let alone a coach he never hired.

 

As for the team, the Raptors absolutely need a shooting guard.  Anthony Parker makes a nice bench player but is stretched as a starter.  In addition, the Raptors have little cap room and are battling against the natural trend for teams that big win jumps to regress a bit, especially since the Nets, Celts, and Sixers should all be somewhat improved.  In totality, I see the Raptors falling to .500 unless they can fill their holes. 

 

-Dallas Mavericks:  Ouch.  No matter what Mark Cuban says, there can be no more painful a loss.  Losing in the NBA Finals might hurt but an upset after a glorious regular season against a coach you despise probably hurts more.  The Mavs did not play well but Dallas would be well-advised not to do anything too rash.  There really isn't much room for movement anyway.  Jerry Stackhouse is a free agent and his return should be predicated on his price.  Stack was pretty good but he's 33 and his games played the last four years are 26, 56, 55, and 67.  Anything contract longer than two years should come at a discount.  There's also been talk of trading Jason Terry.  Terry is 30 and has been remarkably consistent with the Mavs.  Trading as a punitive measure based upon his subpar playoffs is not a reasonable course of action.  On the other hand, a trade could make sense if they can get an interesting package. 

 

At the end of the day, 2007-08 should be a good year for the Mavs.  Sure they blew possibly their best shot at a title but a big upset is not a death knell.  The other two one seeds to be upset, the 1993-94 Sonics and the 1998-99 Heat both regrouped and were good teams for several more years.  The Sonics were even better two years later and the Heat were at the same level in 1999-00.  Nothing will ever take off the sting of the loss against the Warriors but the Mavs are certainly not done as a contender.