1.    Golden State Warriors:    It was a great and truly unexpected season by The Bay.  I'm less than enthused about a return engagement.  Don Nelson is being non-committal about returning to coach.  I expect that he'll be back but if he's waffling already, I can't imagine that Nellie will be going through the ups and downs of another season with this wild young running team.  Of course, Nelson has been through having to follow up a nice post season run with a crazy running upstart team before.  Three times the Warriors upset significantly higher seeds.  Here's what happened and how the Warriors followed it up the next year:

 

-1986-87 Warriors:  This was Nelson's first year in Golden State and he was GM and had hired a young coach named George Karl.  The 42-40 Warriors were the five seed and beat the 44-39 Jazz 3-2, coming back from an 0-2 deficit.  The Warriors were a solid running team and were led by a flashy point guard, Sleepy Floyd, who led the team and had an incredible 51-point game against the Lakers in the second round (the Warriors lost the series 4-1).  The Warriors also had some good scorers (a young Chris Mullin, Joe Barry Carroll, Purvis Short and Terry Teagle).  The good feelings didn't last long.  The Warriors slumped to 20 wins the next year and Nellie fired Karl and instituted himself as coach.  Floyd, who had received almost as much good press as Baron Davis during this year's playoffs, was traded in the middle of the season for Ralph Sampson.

 

-1988-89 Warriors:  Despite the bad 1987-88 season, the Warriors rallied back to 43-39 in 1988-89 and, again, met the Jazz in the first round.  This time, the Jazz were even tougher, having won the Midwest Division at 51-31 and were led by John Stockton and Karl Malone in their primes.  The Warriors were one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA (116.6 ppg) behind Mullin and Rookie of the Year Mitch Richmond.  The Jazz, again, had no answer for Mullin and Warriors swept the two seed 3-0.  The Warriors were blitzed by Phoenix 4-1 in the second round but looked good going into 1989-90.  The Warriors' defense collapsed in that next season, giving up 119.4 ppg, up three points per game from the previous season.  In the end, the Warriors went 37-45 in 1989-90 and missed the playoffs.

 

-1990-91 Warriors:  The good year-bad year trend continued...This time the Warriors developed Tim Hardaway (22.9 ppg and 9.7 apg) to go with Mullin (25.7 ppg) and Richmond (22.9 ppg).  Despite all the press the Warriors got for the potent offense, the Warriors remained stable at 116 ppg from 1988-89 through 1990-91.  The real difference was that Nellie got the team to defend enough to knock the opponents down to a relatively stingy 115 ppg.  In the playoffs, the Warriors knocked off the two seed Spurs (who were loaded with David Robinson, Rod Strickland, Sean Elliot, and Terry Cummings). 

 

Right before the 1991-92 season, the Warriors ended up dealing Richmond to get bigger (for rookie Billy Owens).  As a value trade, this stunk.  Owens only decent when healthy but the Warriors weren't hurt by the deal in 1991-92.  They went 55-27, the second best record in franchise history.  Richmond was replaced with the less athletic but more efficient Sarunas Marciulionis (18.9 ppg, .538 FG%) and the team scored nearly 119 ppg.  The defense also improved a little behind a roster of competent, if not great, defenders (Tyrone Hill, Vincent Askew, Mario Elie).  But prosperity didn't work the Warriors.  The three seed Warriors were knocked out in the first round by an up-and-coming Sonics team 3-1, unable to stop Shawn Kemp.  (As a side note, Kemp really enjoyed playing the Warriors.  See this list of Kemp's Top 10 Dunks--dunks 5, 2, and 1 notably feature the Nellie Warriors, especially Chris Gatling).  The roller coaster would then continue.  In 1992-93, Mullin, Owens, and Marciulionis all missed significant time and the Warriors went 34-48. 

 

What does this mean for the 2007-08 Warriors?  Possibly nothing but we do learn that Nelson's previous guard-heavy, helter-skelter scoring teams were never consistently competitive in Golden STate.  It was particularly hard to muster up sufficient defense year-to-year without some real lockdown players.  There's a good shot that the Warriors will suffer another Nellie Dip that invariably has followed playoff success. 

 

2.    New Jersey Nets:    If someone told you before the season that the Nets would go to the second round of the playoffs and lose a tough series, you'd think that they pretty much met expectations.  Still, there is something unsatisfying about the Nets.  They had a crappy regular season, partially because of injuries and partially because they were not defending at all.  It is likely, however, that with a healthy Richard Jefferson and Nenad Krstic that they would've won close to 50 games and the division.

 

The real problem here is that the Nets didn't compete quite as well as they could have against a good (but not great) Cleveland team.  Can the Nets actually improve and break through again or are they slowly sliding back?  Well, Jason Kidd was as good as ever but he's 34.  Kidd should be a star for the next year or two (which coincides nicely with the end of his big contract).  The key issue, though, is Vince Carter.  He was Jersey's best scorer but struggled to score in the Cleveland series and he'll likely opt out of his contract.  Word is that he is looking for the same extension as Paul Pierce (three years and $60 million). 

 

Two of my favorite writers, Kelly Dwyer and John Hollinger, addressed the Carter situation.  Dwyer basically had enough of Carter, noting that the Nets can't really win a title as currently constituted and Carter will be overpaid when someone gives him a big deal for the early 30s.  Hollinger wasn't necessarily looking to let Carter go per se as much as he wanted the Nets to trade at least one of the Big Three for younger, taller players.  I'm not opposed to a Carter extension, provided the terms are sane.  Carter's top comparison at age 30 was Dominique Wilkins, who was quite effective through age-34.  Certainly the upper limits of a Carter deal are three years and $48 million.  Rod Thorn has been pretty good at not overbidding for the most part and he clearly will let the market dictate Carter's value.  Still, Thorn has it tough because he can't overpay for Carter but it would really hurt to lose him for nothing.  So, trading any of the Big Three is not necessarily bad but only if the Nets actually can get some real return.

 

3.    Chicago Bulls:    Scoring, scoring, scoring.  Yes, the Pistons are a tough defensive team but the Bulls' scoring droughts seemed almost unnatural for a good NBA team.  Some low post help is needed.  As we mentioned before, Pau Gasol would have helped but it was perfectly defensible to refuse to trade Luol Deng in any deal.  So what to do now? 

 

The Bulls should be looking to deal again, though the marquee items are not necessarily available.  Kevin Garnett is supposedly not on the market and Jermaine O'Neal probably won't be traded intra-division.    Perhaps with Memphis failing to get a top two pick in the draft they can revisit a Gasol trade.  Aside from that, there is little in the way of low post help.  Zach Randolph may be available.  He can score but his profile (slightly overweight scorer who plays little defense) is the exact type of player that coach Scott Skiles disliked so much with Eddy Curry.  So, there is a chance that the Bulls may stand pat if a decent deal can't be made.  In any event, Detroit is getting older and the Bulls should be able to compete with their current roster.  If a trade is needed, the Bulls can always revisit the issue later.

 

Finally, I'm not sure I would overpay too much for Andres Nocioni, the team's most significant free agent.  He's solid player but he'll be 28 and the younger cheaper Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas need to play more.  If Nocioni can get a cheap deal great...but there is a good chance some team will give him a big deal.

 

4.    Phoenix Suns:   This will be a tough summer for the Suns.  According to HoopsHype.com, the Suns' cap number will be nearly $77 million next year, well over the luxury tax number (it kicks on any payroll above the mid-$60-million range).  The problem everyone is noting that most of the payroll is leveraged in Steve Nash ($11.3 million), Shawn Marion ($16.4 million), and Amare Stoudemire ($13.3 million), three unique All-Stars.  This has led to speculation that the Suns may trade Marion or Stoudemire to get under the cap.  Of course, if the Suns hadn't committed $13 million next year to Boris Diaw and Marcus Banks, they wouldn't be in this kind of trouble but we won't worry about the woulda, coulda laments.

 

I frankly can't see how the Suns can trade either Amare or Marion, unless they get some serious return.  Assuming the Suns are going to trade one of the two, which would you trade?  The obvious answer seems to be the player who gets better return.  But let's take a look at each and see which player, in the abstract, is more valuable going forward:

 

-Amare Stoudemire: 20.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 23.1 PER, in 32.8 mpg

-Shawn Marion: 17.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 20.8 PER in 37.6 mpg

 

In straight up stats, Stoudemire looks a little better.  Add in the following pros and cons:

 

-Stoudemire at 25 is four years younger than Marion

-Marion is the better defender

-In terms of future salary commitment, Marion has two years and $34 million.  Stoudemire has four years and $61 million left on his deal.

-Marion's stats were down a few points from last year--though Amare was not there to eat up stats in 2005-06.  In reality, Marion's stats were pretty much the same as his pre-2005-06 numbers.

-Amare had a major knee injury.

-According to Jack McCallum's ":07 Seconds or Less," Amare chaffed the coaching staff with his reportedly less than diligent rehabilitation from knee surgery.

-Amare can play center.

 

At the end of the day, if I had to trade one of the two, I'd go with Marion.  As great has he is, Marion's skill-set is a little easier to find.  Finding a young power forward/center who can finish like Amare is pretty much impossible, while finding another athletic small forward is very hard but not completely impossible.  If the Suns kept Stoudemire, then the Suns could use their lottery pick to try to find another athletic forward (perhaps Julian Wright or Joakim Noah will fall to the Suns). 

 

Of course, trading Marion or Stoudemire won't help unless they are traded to a team that can take the cap hit of their salaries AND give back a cheaper player.  Who can do this?  Maybe the Bulls but their slow paced team would not help Marion or Stoudemire.  Toronto is an interesting destination because they run and Bryan Colangelo originally helped find Marion.  But they also have little to offer (Andrea Bargnani?).  Maybe a desperate team like will give up a good young player and a draft pick.  Still, you can see that even if the Suns wanted to trade either player, finding a match would be pretty difficult. 

 

At the end of the day, it would make much more sense to try to give away Diaw, who can play but is way overrated.  Perhaps if they could ask Charlotte (who is very much under the cap) to take Diaw and the Suns' lottery pick, the Suns could pare enough payroll knock down the tax number.  Certainly, there has to be a more creative solution then trading Marion or Amare.