HOOPSANALYST
Quickthoughts
by Harlan Schreiber (3/11/07)
1. Dallas Rolls: Dallas continued to roll tonight, winning its seventeenth straight game. The disparity between the NBA haves and have-nots is painfully evident as Dallas has three very long winning streaks already (12 games, 13 games, and the current 17-game streak) while there are plenty of very bad teams floating around the East. The Suns have had 15-game and 17-game streaks this year and the Spurs are currently working on a 12 game streak of their own. By comparison, the 72-win Bulls of 1995-96 had only two long streaks (13 games and 18 games).
As for Dallas, 72 wins does not seem likely. The team is an impressive 52-9 but probably won't finish 20-3, especially if they don't have much to play for at the end of the season. Interestingly, Dallas' point differential is +8.7 ppg, which is tied with the Spurs and is a reason why some are insisting that the Mavs are not a prohibitive favorite in the playoffs. How well do long winning streaks correlate to post-season success? Here's a list of teams that won more than 15 games in a row and how the teams ultimately fared that season:
| Team | Season | Streak | W-L | Point Diff. | Playoff Result |
| Lakers | 1969-70 | 33 games | 69-12 | 12.3 | Won Title |
| Bucks | 1970-71 | 20 games | 66-16 | 12.2 | Won Title |
| Lakers | 1999-00 | 19 games | 67-15 | 8.5 | Won Title |
| Celtics | 1981-82 | 18 games | 63-19 | 6.3 | Lost in Conference Finals |
| Bulls | 1995-96 | 18 games | 72-10 | 12.3 | Won Title |
| Knicks | 1969-70 | 18 games | 60-22 | 9.1 | Won Title |
| Celtics | 1959-60 | 17 games | 59-16 | 8.3 | Won Title |
| Spurs | 1995-96 | 17 games | 59-23 | 6.3 | Lost in Second Round |
| Mavericks | 2006-07 | 17 games | 52-9 | 8.7 | To be determined |
| Suns | 2006-07 | 17 games | 48-14 | 7.7 | To be determined |
| Bucks | 1970-71 | 16 games | 66-16 | 12.2 | Won Title |
| Lakers | 1999-00 | 16 games | 67-15 | 8.5 | Won Title |
| Blazers | 1990-91 | 16 games | 63-19 | 8.7 | Lost in Conference Finals |
| Celtics | 1964-65 | 16 games | 62-18 | 8.4 | Won Title |
| Lakers | 1990-91 | 16 games | 58-24 | 6.7 | Lost in NBA Finals |
While a winning streak of greater than 15 games is pretty impressive, it's clear that the streak doesn't guarantee anything. Nine of the fifteen streakers won the title and only one team didn't make it to at least the conference finals. Interestingly, the 1999-00 Lakers and 1970-71 Bucks both had two long winning streaks (they both won titles easily). Another interesting note is that it's not ridiculously unusual to have two different teams streak in one season. Obviously, the Mavs and Suns have done it this year but we can also see 1990-91 with the Blazers and Lakers, who were divisional rivals (the Lakers upset the Blazers in a tough playoff series) and in 1995-96 the Bulls and the Spurs both had long streaks. The Spurs were tied for the lowest point differential on the list and had the worst playoff result (they were beat by the Jazz in the second round of the playoffs).
As for the Mavs, this week should be interesting. Phoenix comes to Dallas on Wednesday and visits the Pistons on Sunday. If the Spurs break 15 wins, however, we're in new territory.
2. NCAA Stuff: Conference tournament week is always fun. It's a scramble for marginal teams from big conferences to make a case to make the big show and the only chance for smaller conference teams to get in. The tournaments, though exciting, really are an unnecessary layer between the regular season and the NCAA tournament. It only serves to marginalize the larger sample size of the regular season in favor of a one week, single elimination scramble. Of course, that fairly describes the NCAA tournament itself, so I can't be too snotty about the whole process.
With those thoughts out of the way, here are some quick thoughts on the pre-big tournament week:
-Big East: The Big East was one of the first conferences to have a post season tournament (back in 1979-80), something that others quickly took to doing as well. Georgetown won the tournament easily and has become relevant for the first time since Allen Iverson was in school back in 1995-96 (they lost to UMass in the Elite Eight). The win this year was the Hoyas' sixth, tying for most Big East tournament titles Here are the historical tournament standings for the Big East:
1. Georgetown, 6 titles
Connecticut, 6 titles
3. Syracuse, 4 titles
4. St. John's, 3 titles
5. Seton Hall, 2 titles
Boston College, 2 titles
7. Providence, 1 title
Villanova, 1 title
Pittsburgh, 1 title
-ACC: Usually, all anyone ever talks about in this conference is Duke or North Carolina. This is somewhat justified. Since 1996-97, either Duke or Carolina has won every ACC Tourney, with the exception of 2003-04 when Maryland beat Duke. Since 1983-84, either Duke or UNC has made the finals of the ACC Tourney every years except two:
-1989-90, Georgia Tech beat Virginia: Tech featured "Lethal Weapon 3" of Kenny Anderson, Dennis Scott, and Brian Oliver while Virginia was led by Bryant Stith and John Crotty.
-1995-96, Wake Forest beat Georgia Tech: Tim Duncan and Randolph Childress went on a run while Duke and Carolina happened to be in transition. Tech featured freshman Stephon Marbury (who bolted to the NBA that summer), Matt Harpring and Drew Barry.
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