HOOPSANALYST
Quickthoughts
by Harlan Schreiber (3/22/07)
1. Kobe KOs: I don't have too much to add to the latest controversy regarding Kobe Bryant's wayward elbows. I have no idea whether Kobe has been intentionally hitting the players who attempt to guard him, whether he's been reckless in throwing his elbows, or whether Bryant's landed elbows have truly been accidental. We have, however, seen a material change in how the NBA deals with this incident. With the prior recurring injurers (Bruce Bowen this year and Bill Carwright and Dikembe Mutombo in the past), no suspensions were ever levied.
For some reason, Kobe has gotten special treatment. Either the NBA has gotten tougher about reckless behavior on the court or they have some reason to believe that Kobe is intentionally hurting players. Given that Bowen had several incidents (at least as many as Kobe) and they happened very recently and he was never even fined, you have to think that the NBA believes that Kobe has some bad intent. I'm not sure how the league can tell it's intentional but Kobe is going to have to make a conscious effort to keep his arms in while he shoots because he has become a marked man.
2. Tanking It: For the bottom third of the NBA, these last few months are really just about lottery preparation. The temptation to really end the season poorly must be particularly great with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant potentially lurking in June. One of the first possible tanking attempts in the drive for Oden/Durant occurred today when the Bucks shut down Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva for the season. Ray Allen was also talking about ending it early, though this probably makes since the team is going nowhere. In either case, it'll be tough to lose prolifically enough to truly change anybody's lottery chances materially. Still, I was curious to see if we could find/discover if anyone was truly cracking for the stretch run. Here are the March records of the NBA teams with little to no playoff chances at all:
Team W-L
Memphis 2-7
Minnesota 2-7
Portland 3-6
Sacramento 4-6
Charlotte 4-7
Milwaukee 4-5
Seattle 4-5
Atlanta 5-6
Boston 5-6
Philadelphia 6-4
The only truly titanic March has been from the T-Wolves, who were near .500 at the start of the month. Memphis has also been pretty bad but they've been bad all year so that is less surprising. Philly has somehow turned into a quasi-respectable team lately (thank you Andre Iguodala), notwithstanding the 50-point drubbing they suffered against the Rockets.
The T-Wolves had a joke-like finish to last year's season too (witness Mark Madsen's stat line from the final game of the season). Indeed, we did see some real April tail spins in 2005-06: Toronto finished 1-9, Portland was 1-10, Houston was 2-8, and Minnesota was 3-7 (after starting the month 3-4). We'll watch to see who can manufacture some losses this year. Certainly this worked out for the Raptors who snagged the top pick in 2006.
3. Euroleague Update: The NCAA tournament is not the only free-for-all going on in the basketball world. The Euroleague is now down to its final sixteen teams. So far the dominant teams are the usual suspects: Tau Ceramica, CSKA Moscow, and Panathinaikos Athens are all 5-0 and leading their groups (the fourth group is led by Unicaja Malaga at 4-1. Here's a quick list the teams' roster notables:
-Tau Ceramica: Luis Scola, the Spurs draftee, is their best player. Other key players include former T-Wolf Igor Rakocevic (a quick player but could never mesh with the NBA style) and perennial prospect Tiago Splitter, who has been a beast this round. He hasn't played quite as much, but former Net Zoran Planinic also has had his moments.
-CSKA Moscow: CSKA is led by Dukie Trajan Langdon and Matjaz Smodis, a scoring 6'9 shooter who was not drafted when he was eligible in 2001. J.R. Holden has also been a good Euro point guard since leaving Bucknell. David Andersen, the Aussie big man drafted by the Hawks in 2002, has been a bench player.
-Panathinaikos: A very balanced team. The most recognizable names haven't been the stars. Milos Vujanic (Scott Layden's favorite a few years ago) has only been a bench player. Likwise Dejan Tomasevic is no longer considered an uber star but starts most of the time and is the team's best rebounder. Their high scorers so far have been former Grizzly Michael Batiste (a nice leaper) and Demos Dikoudis, a 30-year old Greek scorer.
-Unicaja: The team's two best are former NBAers, Jiri Welsch and Daniel Santiago. Pepe Sanchez is a bench player and hasn't done much.
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