HOOPSANALYST

NBA Draft 2008: Point Guards

 

by Ed Weiland (6/17/08)

 

This is a potentially a pretty good group of PGs. Rose is going to be very good. Whether he’s a star, just a solid PG or even some sort of star combo guard is still up for debate, but he should be pretty good. Beyond Rose, things get a little more iffy, but there are enough good prospects that I suspect 2 or 3 other good ones will emerge. The most interesting thing going on this year with the PGs is the number of small college sleepers. Very few small college players ever make it, but I’m guessing at least one of the players from the small college group this year will make an impact. I say that because there are just too many good ones for one of them to not hit.

 

A quick refresher on the direction I started taking last year with this. I focus on the statistics that have been historically important for prospects to do well in. For PG that’s been getting a high number of assists, scoring a decent number of points with efficiency being more important than quantity, keeping the A/TO ratio above 1.7 and surpassing 6.5 in combined rebounds, steals and blocks or RSB40 as I’ll call it. Some leeway is given to freshmen and sophomores, as they usually will improve their games. Other factors, including injuries, team situations and schedule are also taken into account as much as possible.

First the numbers, raw and pace-adjusted:

 

Player

fgpct

3pct

P40

A40

TO40

A/TO

fga/a

fta40

pps

rsb40

Lawson, Ty

0.515

0.361

18.45

7.50

3.18

2.36

1.65

5.22

1.49

6.32

Rose, Derrick

0.477

0.337

19.42

6.15

3.48

1.77

2.31

6.67

1.37

7.94

Lee, Tony

0.507

0.313

18.73

8.78

5.95

1.48

1.60

5.02

1.33

13.10

Singletary, Sean

0.426

0.367

22.58

6.99

4.43

1.58

2.36

7.68

1.37

6.50

Chalmers, Mario

0.516

0.468

16.86

5.72

2.54

2.25

1.88

4.40

1.57

8.12

Stoll, Paul

0.486

0.475

17.29

8.82

4.29

2.06

0.99

6.34

1.98

6.46

Augustine, DJ

0.439

0.381

20.84

6.24

2.99

2.09

2.52

6.30

1.33

4.53

Westbrook, Russ

0.465

0.338

15.23

5.12

2.94

1.74

2.34

4.60

1.27

6.84

Green, Mike

0.431

0.371

18.42

6.37

3.71

1.72

1.90

8.90

1.52

9.93

Hannah, Stefhon

0.430

0.385

20.44

7.32

4.05

1.81

2.19

4.60

1.27

6.91

Robinson, Rusell

0.424

0.318

10.48

5.83

2.99

1.95

1.22

4.07

1.47

7.49

Butler, Jamar

0.430

0.384

17.19

6.79

3.07

2.21

1.95

2.70

1.29

4.93

Richards, Jason

0.412

0.319

14.75

9.46

3.36

2.82

1.27

4.03

1.23

5.29

Neitzel, Drew

0.405

0.398

17.98

5.20

1.83

2.84

2.81

3.09

1.23

4.56

Abrams, AJ

0.424

0.382

18.59

1.67

0.94

1.77

9.38

2.07

1.18

5.11

Gaynor, Chris

0.440

0.434

12.20

5.10

2.04

2.50

1.79

2.95

1.34

8.01

Pargo, Jeremy

0.497

0.265

14.07

7.04

3.92

1.79

1.51

4.07

1.33

6.26

 

Next numbers are something I started last year, comparing this group of players to past prospects and the averages of prospects who reached certain NBA levels. I find this interesting, but it does need a few tweaks here and there. I didn’t include the small college players in this part, because the averages are for major college players only.

  

Freshmen PG Prospects

FG Pct.

3 Pct.

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40

FTA40

Derrick Rose

.477

.337

19.4

6.2

1.8

7.9

6.7

All-Stars

.459

.353

17.8

6.1

1.5

7.8

5.5

Rotation Regulars

.412

.338

13.4

6.0

1.6

6.8

4.2

Journeymen

.418

.328

15.6

6.1

1.6

6.3

4.4

Never Played

.410

.358

14.0

5.3

1.5

5.9

4.5

 

Sophomore PG Prospects

FG Pct.

3 Pct.

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40

FTA40

All-Stars

.485

.399

19.4

7.0

1.9

8.1

4.9

Ty Lawson

.515

.361

18.5

7.5

2.4

6.3

5.2

Rotation Regulars

.440

.379

18.2

6.1

1.7

6.9

5.1

DJ Augustin

.439

.381

20.8

6.2

2.1

4.5

6.3

Russell Westbrook

.465

.338

15.2

5.1

1.7

6.8

4.6

Journeymen

.429

.358

17.3

5.8

1.7

6.6

4.7

Never Played

.428

.376

16.8

5.3

1.6

6.8

4.5

     

 

 

Junior PG Prospects

FG Pct.

3 Pct.

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40

FTA40

All-Stars

.485

.399

19.4

7.0

1.9

8.1

4.9

Rotation Regulars

.440

.379

18.2

6.1

1.7

6.9

5.1

Mario Chalmers

.516

.468

16.9

5.7

2.3

8.1

4.4

Journeymen

.429

.358

17.3

5.8

1.7

6.6

4.7

Jeremy Pargo

.497

.265

14.1

7.0

1.7

6.3

4.1

AJ Abrams

.424

.382

18.6

1.7

1.7

5.1

2.1

Never Played

.428

.376

16.8

5.3

1.6

6.8

4.5

 

Senior PG Prospects

FG Pct.

3 Pct.

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40

FTA40

All-Stars

.460

.370

20.7

5.9

1.6

7.5

5.2

Rotation Regulars

.452

.375

19.1

6.0

1.7

7.3

5.5

Stefhon Hannah

.430

.385

20.4

7.3

1.8

6.9

4.6