HOOPSANALYST
NBA Draft 2008: Combo Guards
by Ed Weiland (6/19/08)
Last season I took things simple with the combo guards. I looked for players who could score both often and efficiently, showed an ability to play some PG in a pinch and put up an RSB40 in at least the 6.0-6.5 range. This year I’ve got a little better grip on the position, or at least I feel as if I do. When I originally separated past prospects, I had put them in the 5 traditional positions. This year I’ve isolated some combo guards and I’ve been able to come up with some better data on what successful combo guards looked like in college. There have been only 2 who have been wildly successful pros, Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas. Both entered the NBA after their sophomore seasons:
|
Player |
FG Pct. |
2-point Pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
Allen Iverson |
.480 |
.546 |
30.5 |
5.7 |
1.2 |
9.3 |
|
Gilbert Arenas |
.479 |
.519 |
22.3 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
7.8 |
Iverson was a terrific all-around player, but Arenas was a little more difficult to get a feel for. Everything looked OK, but the 0.8 A/TO would have scared me off some. He’s become a good enough passer in the pros, but he’ll never be mistaken for Jason Kidd or Steve Nash. The fact that as a sophomore he was able to score often and efficiently with a high RSB, should have gotten him drafted before early in round 2 though.
There are no CGs who compare to those 2 this year. Bayless is by far the best of the bunch. There are some potential surprises after him, but that’s about it. The non-Bayless players listed here also have some stiff competition from a deep SG class, so they all likely face a long road to their NBA dreams. OK, here are the numbers:
|
Player |
fgpct |
3pct |
2 pct |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
TO40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
fga/a |
PPS |
|
Bayless, Jerryd |
0.458 |
0.407 |
0.489 |
22.75 |
4.65 |
1.11 |
3.42 |
1.36 |
4.38 |
3.12 |
1.57 |
|
Hill, George |
0.545 |
0.450 |
0.580 |
24.04 |
4.79 |
1.99 |
3.28 |
1.46 |
9.99 |
2.95 |
1.70 |
|
McKiver, Rob |
0.396 |
0.386 |
0.415 |
26.54 |
3.28 |
1.86 |
2.85 |
1.15 |
6.26 |
5.94 |
1.36 |
|
Carroll, Jaycee |
0.530 |
0.503 |
0.551 |
24.89 |
2.42 |
1.04 |
2.15 |
1.13 |
8.08 |
6.65 |
1.54 |
|
Smith, Jujuan |
0.462 |
0.383 |
0.604 |
19.88 |
3.10 |
2.34 |
2.34 |
1.33 |
7.51 |
4.65 |
1.38 |
|
Roberts, Brian |
0.476 |
0.455 |
0.498 |
21.70 |
4.05 |
0.42 |
3.25 |
1.24 |
3.88 |
3.74 |
1.43 |
|
McCalebb, Bo |
0.506 |
0.405 |
0.535 |
27.59 |
3.68 |
2.83 |
2.75 |
1.34 |
8.25 |
5.21 |
1.44 |
|
Gordon, Jamont |
0.415 |
0.319 |
0.480 |
19.43 |
5.59 |
1.26 |
4.59 |
1.22 |
9.42 |
2.77 |
1.26 |
|
Low, Derrick |
0.432 |
0.385 |
0.510 |
18.13 |
2.02 |
1.84 |
1.40 |
1.45 |
5.70 |
6.98 |
1.28 |
These comps are a little shaky, as far as being great information goes. There just weren’t a lot of CGs out there to glean information from. But this is what we have. I didn’t include George Hill, because the averages are for major college players only.
|
Freshmen |
FG Pct. |
2-pt. Pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
Jerryd Bayless |
.458 |
.489 |
22.8 |
4.7 |
1.4 |
4.4 |
|
Rotation Regular |
.460 |
.491 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
1.2 |
6.0 |
|
Journeyman |
.455 |
.500 |
17.9 |
4.7 |
1.4 |
7.2 |
|
Never made it |
.428 |
.468 |
15.1 |
4.0 |
1.4 |
6.1 |
|
Junior |
FG Pct. |
2-pt. Pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
Rotation Regular |
.474 |
.514 |
21.2 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
7.9 |
|
Journeyman |
.463 |
.499 |
19.5 |
4.6 |
1.4 |
7.2 |
|
Jamont Gordon |
.415 |
.480 |
19.4 |
5.6 |
1.2 |
9.4 |
|
Never made it |
.450 |
.502 |
21.2 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
6.3 |
|
Senior |
FG Pct. |
2-pt. Pct. |
P40 |
A40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
Rotation Regular |
.470 |
.498 |
20.8 |
4.8 |
1.7 |
7.6 |
|
Bo McCalebb |
.506 |
.535 |
27.6 |
3.7 |
1.3 |
8.3 |
|
Jaycee Carroll |
.530 |
.551 |
24.9 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
8.1 |
|
Journeyman |
.475 |
.515 |
23.7 |
4.4 |
1.3 |
7.5 |
|
JaJuan Smith |
.462 |
.604 |
19.9 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
7.5 |
|
Brian Roberts |
.476 |
.498 |
21.7 |
4.1 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
|
Derrick Low |
.432 |
.510 |
18.1 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
5.7 |
|
Never made it |
.438 |
.469 |
22.0 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
6.5 |
|
Rob McKiver |
.396 |
.415 |
26.5 |
3.3 |
1.2 |
6.3 |
Now for the subjective rankings and comments. This is how I would rank the players, all other things being equal.
1. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona: This is a player with a couple of crazy extremes in his statistics. He’s a great scorer, both in frequency and efficiency. His P40 is 22.8, with percentages of .458 overall and .407 on treys. He gets to the line more than most and hits .839 on FTs. He produces 1.57 points per FG attempts, a number topped only by James Harden’s 1.63 among major college guards this season. Since scoring is the most important thing for guards who don’t play the point, it’s easy to see why Bayless resides in the top 5 in most mocks. The other extreme is what worries me. Bayless simply didn’t do the dirty work as a freshman, averaging a meager 4.38 RSB40. Historically it has been important for players to do both things well in college if they intended to go onto successful pro careers. I wanted to look at both extremes and players who were both PGs and SGs who were near these levels as college freshmen. First the bad news. Here are players who posted an RSB40 of less than 5.0 as college freshmen:
|
Player |
Pos |
RSB40 |
FGA/Assist |
A/TO |
PPS |
|
Jerryd Bayless |
CG |
4.38 |
3.12 |
1.36 |
1.57 |
|
Mark Jackson |
PG |
3.98 |
0.98 |
1.35 |
1.65 |
|
Travis Best |
PG |
4.47 |
1.70 |
1.96 |
1.28 |
|
Kenny Smith |
PG |
4.08 |
1.40 |
1.61 |
1.31 |
|
Scott Skiles |
PG |
3.79 |
1.96 |
1.25 |
1.31 |
|
Negele Knight |
PG |
4.54 |
1.55 |
1.68 |
1.08 |
|
Melvin Booker |
PG |
4.81 |
1.95 |
1.30 |
1.21 |
|
Dejuan Wheat |
CG |
4.49 |
2.87 |
1.79 |
1.37 |
|
Bobby Hurley |
PG |
4.35 |
0.91 |
1.73 |
1.28 |
|
Litterial Green |
PG |
3.69 |
2.68 |
1.56 |
1.35 |
|
Kevin Pritchard |
SG |
4.70 |
4.03 |
1.43 |
1.17 |
|
Michael Jackson |
PG |
4.52 |
3.02 |
0.97 |
1.33 |
|
Marcus Taylor |
PG |
4.69 |
2.68 |
1.68 |
1.19 |
|
God Shamgod |
PG |
4.13 |
1.28 |
2.20 |
1.16 |
|
TJ Parker |
PG |
4.89 |
3.26 |
1.17 |
1.32 |
|
Allan Houston |
SG |
4.99 |
3.66 |
1.26 |
1.31 |
|
Rex Chapman |
SG |
4.86 |
3.79 |
1.47 |
1.19 |
|
Vern Fleming |
SG |
4.66 |
2.62 |
1.23 |
1.34 |
|
Shawn Respert |