I’m doing something a little different this year with the SFs. I’m splitting them into two categories. There will be the SFs, who are the more traditional small forward types who might be more like guards. Then there will be the combo forwards. These are the bigger players who might play either forward position depending on the matchup. The reason for this is these are different types of player and rating them against each other just didn’t seem like the best way of evaluating. I thought about this last year when I was comparing Corey Brewer to Al Thornton. They were two completely different players. Brewer could play some backcourt and Thornton could play some PF. It was silly to use the same rating system to compare these two players. They’re different players who fill different roles on teams. They should be evaluated differently. That’s what this split is an attempt to do.

 

One thing to know about this year’s SFs is most of the best ones stayed in college. Austin Daye, Tyler Smith, Robbie Hummel, Geoff McDermott and Kyle Singler just might have been my top 5 had they decided to come out this year. All returned to college, along with decent prospects Chase Budinger and Lee Cummard, who returned after flirting with the NBA until the deadline. SF should become the hot NCAA position in 2009. This year there are still a few worth talking about. I ended up going with Donte Greene and his potential as my top guy. The statistics I’m going to focus on start with scoring at least 18.0 points per 40 minutes. This is an important stat for any player at any position. Then there’s adjusted FG pct., which takes into account both 2 and 3 pointers. It seems to be important for SFs to be able to either hit both shots at a decent rate. I haven’t really focused in on the right level yet, but .570 seems like a good one. Next is ASB40, or combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. The most important thing for SFs other than scoring often and efficiently enough is that they have at least one other solid skill. Usually passing is that skill, but defense is also important. An ASB40 over 5.0 does an excellent job of identifying such players. I also look at rebounds per 40 minutes and A/TO, but I don’t weigh those two as heavily. As with other non-PG positions, the A/TO isn’t a big deal unless it’s too low, and then it’s a negative thing.

 

 

Player	fgpct	3pct	2 pct	adjpct.	P40	R40	A40	TO40	A/TO	ASB40
Claxton, Geary	0.495	0.362	0.546	0.595	23.54	11.27	3.20	3.53	0.90	5.38
Greene, Donte	0.418	0.345	0.492	0.591	18.60	7.53	2.13	2.73	0.78	5.19
Williams, Reggie	0.528	0.279	0.637	0.613	28.81	10.03	4.02	3.15	1.28	7.01
Hairston, Malik	0.525	0.433	0.577	0.681	20.90	6.21	2.73	2.28	1.20	4.59
Walker, Bill	0.465	0.307	0.531	0.555	22.13	8.71	2.62	3.60	0.73	4.58
Weems, Sonny	0.479	0.398	0.522	0.617	19.50	5.91	3.56	3.77	0.95	5.70
Prowell, Quan	0.544	0.411	0.620	0.693	18.77	7.93	1.91	2.36	0.81	4.06
Daniels, Will	0.501	0.360	0.555	0.600	25.10	8.81	1.47	3.26	0.45	4.04
Forbes, Gary	0.407	0.292	0.467	0.507	21.62	8.36	3.38	3.50	0.96	5.42
Alexander, Joe	0.462	0.268	0.480	0.485	21.35	8.09	3.10	2.81	1.10	5.91
Jefferson, Davon	0.575	0.500	0.578	0.592	17.79	9.22	1.12	3.50	0.32	3.75

 

 

NCAA Freshman SF prospect	Adj FG Pct.	P40	R40	A/TO	ASB40
All-Star	.556	20.1	9.0	0.9	6.0
Donte Greene	.591	18.6	7.5	0.8	5.2
Rotation Regular	.546	17.9	9.0	0.7	5.1
Bill Walker	.555	22.1	8.7	0.7	4.6
Journeyman	.548	16.9	8.2	0.7	5.2
Davon Jefferson	.592	17.8	9.2	0.3	3.8
Never made it	.541	16.7	8.9	0.9	5.0

  

NCAA Junior SF prospect	Adj FG Pct.	P40	R40	A/TO	ASB40
All-Star	.625	22.4	8.5	1.0	6.0
Rotation Regular	.588	21.1	8.9	0.9	5.8
Joe Alexander	.485	21.4	8.1	1.1	5.9
Journeyman	.555	19.9	9.1	0.8	5.1
Never made it	.573	19.9	8.8	0.8	4.7

 

NCAA Senior SF prospect	Adj FG Pct.	P40	R40	A/TO	ASB40
All-Star	.622	23.5	9.1	1.0	6.4
Geary Claxton	.595	23.5	11.3	0.9	5.4
Rotation Regular	.585	22.0	9.0	0.9	5.7
Malik Hairston	.681	20.9	6.2	1.2	4.6
Sonny Weems	.617	19.5	5.9	1.0	5.7
Will Daniels	.600	25.1	8.8	0.5	4.0
Journeyman	.555	21.0	9.2	0.8	4.9
Gary Forbes	.507	21.6	8.4	1.0	5.4
Quan Prowell	.693	18.8	7.9	0.8	4.1
Never made it	.563	19.8	8.7	0.9	4.9

  

Subjective rankings based on which players I like best all things being equal.

  

1. Donte Greene, Syracuse: I originally had Greene listed as a combo forward, but a look at his stats and his game suggests he’s strictly a SF, despite his height and general largeness. I wasn’t a big fan of Greene going into this process. I had assumed I would rip him for taking too many treys and not playing a game more suited to his size. His numbers were weak for a prospect at either SF or PF. But breaking down his numbers a little more, I have to concede that there could be a pretty decent player hiding here. I see enough potential that I have to put him at the top of a weak group. Greene’s numbers were killed by a terrible month of February. During this time the Orange lost 4 of 6 games and basically punched their ticket to the NIT.  Here’s his monthly breakdown:

 

Donte Greene	2 Pct.	3 Pct.	AFG pct.	P40	R40	SB40	ASB40
Nov.-Dec.	.538	.393	.661	20.3	8.8	3.8	5.8
January	.443	.371	.593	20.0	7.4	2.7	4.5
February	.429	.200	.412	12.7	6.6	2.3	4.3
March	.515	.382	.628	20.1	6.4	3.0	5.7

 

The biggest problem in Feb. was he couldn’t hit a 3-pointer. That he continued to huck up 8 per game instead of using his height inside is puzzling, but I guess a mad bomber has to keep firing away. But shot-selection aside, there is some promise in these numbers. In the pre-season and March he looked like a pretty darn good SF prospect. Greene posted an AFG over .600, 20 P40, and an ASB40 over 5.0 as a freshman for two of the four months of the season. Greene did that for two of four months. He was decent enough in January also. Not that a slump is OK, but that sort of thing happens to freshmen. The fact that he was a pretty good prospect for stretches impresses me enough that I can put him at the top of this group.

One concern with Greene would be his size. He’s listed at 6’11” 226. Since he’s a freshman, we can probably figure he’ll add another 15-20 lbs before he’s full grown. That will make him a good-size SF. I don’t know if there will be quickness problems because of this. That’s not enough to knock him out of the top spot though. Greene did enough things well as a freshman, that I believe he has the best chance of any player here to make a big impact.

 

2. Danilo Gallinari, Armani Jeans: Foreign players have gone through some phases as prospects. A few years ago, Peja Stojakovic, Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol all came into the league as bargains for where they were drafted. This sent GMs on a search for more of this talent and led to the likes of Darko Milicic, Nic Tsikivili, Andrea Bargnini and Yaroslav Korolov getting drafted well before their ability deserved. Perhaps now the league can find a comfortable middle on foreign players. They’ll draft the best players regardless of home country, rather than taking a crazy flier on some obscure player who is rumoured to be the next Nowitzki.

Gallinari looks like a decent prospect, though hardly the next Nowitzki. At 19 his most impressive numbers were 17.5 PPG and .405 on treys. His other numbers are OK. With foreign players the best ones have dominated in the lower levels and put up a solid stat line at the top level. Gallinari hasn’t been a dominant player and his non-scoring numbers are OK, but not great. For that reason I don’t see him as a great prospect. I do like the fact that he was a strong scorer at such a young age though. This is a weak group of SFs, so the fact that he has shown some good skills at 19 is enough for me to put Gallinari near the top of this list.

 

3. Nicolas Batum, LeMans Sarthe Basket: Batum doesn’t score like Gallinari, but his other numbers are a little more impressive. What really caught my eye was his 4.1 A40, which is a very high total for a European forward. He also piles up blocks and steals at a rate that would put him near the top of any prospect list. He’s not much of a scorer, averaging only 8.5 PPG and hitting less than .300 on treys. This doesn’t seem to be a huge deal for European prospects, so I won’t penalize him like I might an American collegian for not scoring enough. Sometimes in Europe a young player like Batum will be used more as a role player and not given the opportunity to score more. It would be nice if he were a little more efficient though. As is the case with Gallinari, I’m willing to take a leap of faith and rank Batum ahead of a mediocre NCAA crowd, even though my knowledge about foreign players is based on mostly anecdotal evidence. This simply isn’t a great field of SFs coming out this year. Every player has some flaws in his game that need to be corrected before he’ll be able to step up. Batum looks like he has the potential to become a solid role player. He’ll be that much better if he can work on his scoring skills. To me that seems like a better gamble than hoping one of the NCAA guys will develop an acceptable defensive or passing game.

 

4. Bill Walker, Kansas State: Walker wasn’t a wildly efficient player, but he did score frequently. Even with Michael Beasley getting most of the opportunities, Walker still managed to pump in 22.1 P40. Here are other recent freshmen SFs who scored over 20 P40.

 

Player	Adj FG Pct.	P40	R40	A/TO	ASB40
Carmelo Anthony	.544	24.4	11.0	1.0	5.1
Kevin Durant	.600	27.3	11.8	0.5	5.4
Glenn Robinson	.536	26.8	10.2	0.5	5.5
Jalen Rose	.571	21.9	5.4	1.2	6.6
Corey Maggette	.636	24.0	8.7	0.7	6.0
Tim Thomas	.563	21.6	7.7	0.7	6.2
Ricky Davis	.542	22.5	7.2	0.7	5.9
Quentin Richardson	.581	22.5	12.6	0.5	2.5
Adam Morrison	.598	22.2	8.3	1.2	4.1