This award usually goes to the top scoring rookie, regardless of team record or how valuable a player the rookie is. Before I get into any individual players, I want to mention that I believe this will be one of the great draft classes ever. Even without Oden the group is loaded with talented players. I’m also guessing we’ll see more good players coming out of round 2 than in any draft since 1986. Sometime in January there will be articles appearing on-line and in magazines touting this group against the ’84 and ’96 classes. Some will even go over the top and suggest that the 2007 draft class might save the NBA, as if it needs saving. As far as the award goes, it seems like Durant’s to lose. He’s the only one who will immediately be the top gun on his team. For that reason it seems almost pointless to list 10 candidates, but there are several good rookies out there and no one is really sure what will transpire at this point. When projecting any rookie’s season, I try not to take too much stock in where he is coming out of the pre-season. There have been many rookies who were shaky coming out of training camp but found their NBA legs and confidence by November and proceeded to light up the league.  Finally this list reflects chances for winning the ROY, not how valuable I feel each rookie will be. If that were the case, Joakim Noah and Julian Wright would make the top 5 along with Durant, Horford and Conley. Neither were included, because it’s doubtful they’ll score enough points to even get considered for the award.

 

1. Kevin Durant, Seattle: This is an easy choice. The first thing Durant has working in his favor is he’s a very good player. With Oden sitting out the season, there shouldn’t be any doubt that Durant is the most talented rookie to take the floor this season. His college numbers were historically good and his athleticism allows him to play 3 positions. In addition to scoring, he’s capable of impressive numbers in rebounds, blocks, steal and 3-point pct. The Sonics have shipped out their top 2 scorers from last season, basically clearing the decks for the Durant era to start ASAP. Most of the other rooks are looking more like role players than like their team’s top scorers. The only thing that would keep Durant from winning the ROY is an injury.
2. Al Horford, Atlanta: Right now he’s part of the mix at PF-C in Atlanta. By the end of the year he’ll probably emerge as Atlanta’s best front court player and starting center. I can’t say for sure whether or not that will transfer to much more than 12-14 PPG, because Atlanta has some gunners in their backcourt who are going to take most of the shots. But Horford could be the Hawks most valuable player by mid-season and might even post double figures in points and rebounds, with strong numbers in blocks and assists also. Should anything happen with Durant he has the next best chance.
3. Mike Conley Jr., Memphis: Going into the season reports have the Grizzlies leaning toward Stoudamire as the starter, with Lowry as the main backup. I can’t believe that will continue. Stoudamire just isn’t a very good player and there’s no way he’ll keep Conley on the bench for very long. The Grizzlies are planning on running and Conley, with his quickness, smarts and passing skills, seems like the perfect player to lead the charge. He’s not going to be a big scorer, but if Memphis runs as much as they’re promising to, he’ll post an impressive enough PPG just by being part of a running team. He also has an excellent chance to finish top 10 in assists and steals. But he has to get on the court first.
4. Corey Brewer, Minnesota: It’s always a good thing for a rookie when his team ships out his competition. Both Trenton Hassell and Ricky Davis have been traded, so it looks like Brewer will be the starting SF sooner rather than later. He’ll probably be the Timberwolves’ top defender, but he hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a great scorer in college. My guess is that he’ll fall somewhere behind Jefferson, Foye and McCants in the Timberwolves scoring pecking order, which isn’t a good place for a potential ROY to be. But on a team like this, where questions like: “Who’s going to score and how often?”, will be answered as the season progresses, it’s not out of the question for any player, especially a rookie, to emerge as one of the teams’ leading scorers.
5. Al Thornton, LA Clippers: He trailed only Durant in preseason scoring among rooks and with Brand out for a few months it looks like he’ll get a shot to play. I’m not sure how long the Clippers can stay with him as a guy who plays PF exclusively though. Thornton is a substandard rebounder and will probably be overmatched defensively at PF. His game is better suited to playing SF, or being a matchup guy off the bench. His PT could hinge on whether or not the Clippers remain in the playoff hunt.  If they fall out of things quickly, Thornton may get minutes simply for the sake of giving him experience and that would help his chances quite a bit as he’s a scorer first and foremost.
6. Acie Law IV, Atlanta: I’m mainly focusing on scorers here and Law is certainly one of those. He does have a similar problem to Thornton though in that he’s going to be asked to fill a role he may not be best suited for. He’s going to be asked to play PG, when he might be better utilized as a combo guard, like Chicago used Ben Gordon as a rookie. Law was a shoot-first PG at Texas A&M and honestly that’s the last thing the Hawks need. If he does start, he’s a talented enough scorer, that he could finish 2^nd on the team to Johnson.
7. Juan Carlos Navarro, Memphis: He has to be considered for one reason: He’s a scorer playing on a running team. Like Conley he’s going to rack up a fairly impressive PPG just by being in the rotation. Navarro was a terrific scorer in Europe and has the potential to do the same in the NBA. I could see him developing into the Memphis version of Leandro Barbosa. Problem is he’s 27 and there’s probably going to be some bias against him because of that.
8. Luis Scola, Houston: Like Navarro, he’s a foreign player who’s 27 and voters seem to prefer rookies to be more of a typical rookie age. Scola will have a big impact though. He’s coming into a situation where he’ll be a huge upgrade on the previous player, Juwan Howard. He’ll also be an important player on one of the league’s better teams. I’m just not sure how much he’ll score, with McGrady, Yao and James around. Since that’s the main factor in the MVP race, right now his chances are tough to gauge.
9. Marco Bellinelli, Golden State: He can light it up and that should lead to a bunch of points in this offense. He’s also on a roster that’s loaded with wing players, most of whom are better defenders than Marco and that could mean lots of time on the bench. He seems capable of scoring 20 PPG if he can get himself enough minutes in this offense. It would be a soft 20 PPG, but voters don’t seem to concern themselves with such things when selecting the top rookie.
10. Yi Jianlian, Milwaukee: The rumor is he’s been promised 25 minutes per game by the Bucks as an enticement to get him to come to Milwaukee. The fact that he logged exactly 25 minutes in his first game might verify this. I don’t know that this is a terrible thing, as it can be just as stupid to nail a rookie to the bench while playing a mediocre veteran. But Yi just hasn’t shown all that much this far. Scoring is his strength and the fact that he could be guaranteed 2000+ minutes puts him ahead of most rookies.