As very entertaining Thursday saw Orlando struggle at home against a short handed Boston team before roaring ahead in the final minutes to force a Game 7 in Boston. Next, we saw Houston bum rush the Lakers in the first quarter, which gave them just enough cushion to hang on and get the series back to Los Angeles. Here’s a quick rundown of what we saw in the series:
Boston v. Orlando
-How can you not be impressed with the toughness of the Celtics? They held the Magic down for three quarters before running out of steam and being outscored 22-13 in the fourth quarter. The Magic get a lot of credit for this defensive effort but you have to think that Ray Allen’s problems (2-11 from the field, 0-7 from three) couldn’t all be a function of Hedo Turkoglu and Courtney Lee.
-Dwight Howard had a monster game too (23 pts, 22 rebs). Some have focused on Howard’s weaknesses this post season. He has problems with free throws and no low posts to speak of outside of the power game but that’s some power game. For those who have criticized Howard for shrinking in the clutch, it bears remembering that he’s still only 23 and this would’ve been his rookie year had Howard attended college for four years. Like David Robinson before him, you have to think that Howard will eventually pick up decent secondary offensive move. Robinson developed an excellent elbow jumper and Howard should have something too, it’s just not going to happen by the end of the 2008-09 playoffs. Yes, Kendrick Perkins probably could not have held down a 23-year old Shaquille O’Neal but Howard, however good, is not Shaq.
-One more note on Howard…He’s been pretty bad from the line this series and was bad for the season (.594%). Howard, for some reason, was a decent foul shooter as a rookie (.671%). Since then, he’s been stuck at 58-59% the next four years. Was the rookie year a fluke or will Howard find that range again? Well, one of Shaq’s best shooting seasons from the stripe was his rookie year and only exceeded that two other times in his career (2002-03 and 2008-09). Other centers have improved a bit over time (Moses Malone, Artis Gilmore) but with most high scoring big men, what you see is what you get.
-It was surprising but Brian Scalabrine player fairly well on Rashard Lewis. Lewis had 20 points but he had to work much harder than you’d think (
7-18 from three). I don’t know if Scal can do it again but his giving 32 minutes off the bench was huge for Boston.
-Going into Game 7, the Magic must realize that the J.J. Redick experiment is not working. Redick is playing way too many minutes at this point. He’s had three good playoff games so far (one this series) and is 3-25 from the field in the last four games (2-13 from three). If Redick can’t shoot, he’s a liability. It’s time more all around players, Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus, got the bulk of the minutes. Redick is good for a cameo but if he’s not shooting well, Stan Van Gundy must ditch him.
-For Boston, they obviously cannot afford another bad Ray Allen game and they need Rajon Rondo to continue to play at an inhuman level and hope for some scoring help from someone out of the ordinary (Stephon Marbury?).
-In the end, I think Boston is too injured and too dog tired to keep it up. The Magic are younger, deeper and more athletic and even on the road I think they win Game 7.
Houston v. Los Angeles
-It wasn’t shocking that a good home team like the Rockets might force a Game 7 but it was surprising that the Rockets won the forward battles. Luis Scola (24 points) was dominant in the post and the Lakers could not stop Carl Landry’s drives to the hoop (6-6 from the field, 15 pts, 9 rebs in 27 minutes.
-The non-Kobe Lakers guards/small forwards (Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton) have shot like crap this series. Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown have shown a bit more but none of them are stopping Aaron Brooks. The Lakers have always been vulnerable to little, quick point guards but now they have no one to match up with them or make the little guards pay on defense. The Rockets basically have won every game where Brooks has had an offensive impact this series. In each of the three wins, Brooks had at least 19 points and six free throws. In the losses, Brooks has shot 12-34 and averaged 11.3 ppg. He is the x-factor that the Lakers don’t have an answer for.
-While people don’t think about it much, the Rockets and Lakers have quite a history. Here’s a rundown of the previous playoff match ups between the franchises:
–1980-81: The Rockets upset the Lakers 2-1 in the old first round mini-series format. The Lakers with Magic and Kareem were heavy favorites but Moses Malone was at his peak and he helped them steal the series and subsequently took a 40-42 Rocket team all the way to the NBA Finals (where they lost to the Celtics).
–1985-86: Once again, Houston upset the Magic/Kareem Lakers. This time, the teams met in the Conference Finals and Houston was led by the Twin Towers of Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson. The Rockets won the series 4-1 on a series winning crazy fall away buzzer beater by Ralph Sampson that cause Michael Cooper to all over in shock. Again, the Rockets lost to the Celts in the NBA Finals.
–1989-90: The Showtime Lakers beat Hakeem 3-1 in an uneventful first rounder.
–1990-91: The last Magic Johnson team played a pretty good Hakeem-led Rocket team in the first round again. This time, the Lakers swept the Rockets 3-0. Two of the games were close (Game 1 was won on a Byron Scott shot at the horn).
–1995-96: A fun 4-5 match up. The Lakers had Nick Van Exel, Eddie Jones, and Vlade Divac plus Magic’s final comeback. The Rockets were coming off back-to-back titles and Hakeem dominated to knock off the Lakers 3-1.
–1998-99: The Hakeem group was on its last legs with an older Charles Barkley and Scottie Pippen too. The Lakers weren’t quite a dynasty yet but they still had Shaq, Kobe, Van Exel, and Jones. Barkley played well but Pippen and Hakeem could not hang with Shaq and Kobe and the Lakers won 3-1.
–2003-04: The Rockets didn’t make the playoffs after 1998-99 until 2003-04. Now the Rockets were a nice young team with Steve Francis and young Yao Ming. They were a solid team but had a lousy first round match up with the Shaq, Kobe, and Karl Malone and the Lakers. The Lakers overwhelmed the Rockets 4-1.
So what have we learned? A few interesting points: (1) the Lakers lead the series 4-3 so far, (2) The winner of the playoff match up has gone on to make the NBA Finals four times, though each time the team lost in the Finals, and (3) this is the first time the match up hasn’t been in the first round or the conference finals.
-Returning to this year, Game 7 in Los Angeles should equal a Laker win, provided that Lamar Odom and the guards can have decent games. The Rockets have hung tough but they need too many things to go well to win again in Los Angeles. On the other side, the Lakers struggle with the Rockets should not necessarily be taken as an indicator that they will struggle with Denver or Cleveland (assuming they get that far). Houston is a tough team and, if they score enough, can beat almost anyone, including the Lakers. Still, history and talent favor the Lakers.