NBA Draft Preview 2010: Bradley and Bledsoe

These two should be analyzed together, because they’re in similar situations. Both were highly-touted freshmen coming into this season. Bradley more so than Bledsoe, but both were well thought of. Both landed on talented rosters where they mixed a few moments of brilliance with spending their freshmen seasons taking a backseat to teammates ahead of them in the pecking order. Both are PG size, but have yet to prove they can play the position. Both came out after their freshman years anyways, hoping their athleticism will be enough to convince some team their ordinary numbers aren’t a true reflection of their ability. Both are projected to go in the 20-30 range of round one. The one positive for both players is the fact that the PG crop is very thin this year and that’s always a good thing for marginal prospects. Here are their numbers:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Eric Bledsoe	.516	.383	14.2	3.6	1.0	6.0
Avery Bradley	.457	.375	14.7	2.6	1.4	5.9

I can point out a thing or two with each player that’s impressive by itself, but doesn’t bring the player up to the status of a typical prospect. Bledsoe’s percentages are strong, but he didn’t score frequently enough that we would know whether or not he could keep that pace going. Bradley’s TOs are very low, but unless that is coupled with a high number of assists it doesn’t make him a PG prospect. In Bradley’s case the low TOs combined with his low number of FT attempts suggest he might be a very timid player on offense. I’m not going to get too concerned about the low RSB40s. While it would definitely be better if it were over 7.0, freshmen guards have overcome lower numbers in the past to go on to all-star careers.

The biggest problem for both is the low P40 and A40. While that can partly be explained away by playing on a crowded roster with fewer opportunities, the fact is most successful PGs were much more dominant than this from the start. Below is a list of PGs who fashioned at least a decent career after posting both a P40 near or below 15.0 and an A40 at 4.0 or below as freshmen:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Steve Kerr	.516	n/a	12.5	2.2	1.0	2.7
Earl Watson	.436	.323	7.2	3.9	1.3	7.5
Howard Eisley	.363	.351	11.8	4.0	1.2	5.0
Steve Nash	.453	.408	13.6	3.6	1.1	5.9
Derek Anderson	.512	.257	15.3	4.0	1.2	8.2
Russell Westbrook	.470	.409	15.3	3.0	1.0	5.4

Nash is the top guy here, but his career has been so atypical that it is hard to point to him as proof that Bledsoe or Bradley look like anything other than NBA journeymen at this point. What Nash’s career shows is that the range of possibilities for any prospect is wide, but the fact is few exceed expectations. For hope here it’s better to look to Westbrook. Like Bledsoe and Bradley, Westbrook entered college with a crowded, talented backcourt in front of him. He didn’t exactly light it up his freshman year, but came on enough as a soph to start at PG and is now one of the better PGs in the NBA. The big difference here is that neither Westbrook nor Nash came to their schools as top prospects like Bledsoe and Bradley did. While that means little in itself, it could say something about a work ethic both Nash and Westbrook have that may or may not be there with Bradley or Bledsoe. Another difference is both Westbrook and Nash stayed in school and proved they could play the PG position, while Bradley and Bledsoe are going to head for the pros. Here’s a look at the players individually:

Avery Bradley, G Texas: Bradley came into the season as one of the top prospects in the nation. He was ranked #1 overall by ESPNU and #4 overall by Rivals. This is something that can’t be ignored, as these guys are usually pretty good at picking out the top players. But it isn’t a certain ticket to success. There are a couple of things about Bradley’s chances that trouble me. The first is he just wasn’t a very aggressive player at Texas. He was 4^th on the team in FG frequency and got to the line less than twice per game. This is a bad sign for any guard. A SG needs to have a gunner mentality. A PG needs to be able to get to the line a lot. Bradley showed neither of those attributes. The other thing that bothers me is Bradley never took over the PG position on a team that was screaming for someone to step up and do just that. This wasn’t a case like Bledsoe had at Kentucky, where John Wall was running the team, or Westbrook had his first season at UCLA sitting behind Collison. Texas used mediocre college veterans at PG, while Bradley played SG. Here’s a look at Bradley’s monthly splits for the season:

Avery Bradley	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Nov-Dec	.482	.382	17.0	3.5	1.7	6.3
January	.517	.452	17.2	3.2	2.6	6.3
February	.455	.375	13.3	1.7	0.7	6.0
March	.333	.000	9.2	1.9	1.3	4.7

The first couple of months looked OK, as if he was on the right track. After that he really fell apart. For freshmen it is obviously better to improve than decline. The good news is the ability he showed during the first couple months is probably still there and a dose of confidence and hard work might get it back.

What Bradley has going for him is he’s young and very athletic. The negatives I’ve detailed above are numerous, but to recap: He’s PG size, but has yet to show any ability to play the position. If a team were to look at him as an SG he’s short, lacks the gunner’s mentality and, despite some occasional brilliance on defense, brings weak defensive numbers. He’s a streaky shooter who rarely gets to the line. He went into a terrible slump when his team needed someone to save their season.

I’m sure some team will draft Avery Bradley late in round one and hope he develops into something. That isn’t a horrible idea either. That way this draft looks, there will be a point late in round one or early in round two when gambling on an athlete like Bradley is the best option. I don’t see things working out for him though. He wasn’t able to take over as the PG or lead scorer on a team that needed such a player to step up. His scoring/passing numbers suggest he’s a player who is more comfortable in a supporting role. I see Avery Bradley as nothing more than a career role player.

Eric Bledsoe, G Kentucky: While there are similarities in the situations of these two freshmen, Eric Bledsoe looks like the more impressive prospect of the two at this point in their careers. As we did with Bradley here’s a look at Bledsoe’s splits:

Eric Bledsoe	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Nov-Dec	.417	.500	13.6	4.1	0.8	5.6
January	.523	.348	14.4	4.2	1.1	7.1
February	.548	.179	11.5	3.6	1.0	5.6
March	.632	.439	17.3	2.6	1.1	6.1

This is what freshman improvement looks like. Bledsoe improved his 2-point pct. every month. By March he was a scary offensive player and a big part of the Wildcat offense. What I like best about this is that Bledsoe was able to adjust and improve his game, becoming a deadly scorer while Wall handled the PG duties. Being adaptable and adjusting your game to team needs is a skill in itself and that Bledsoe showed he could do this helps his case. The problem is we can rave about his scoring efficiency and that he’s a good teammate all we want, but he’s still a 6’1” guy who has yet to prove he can play PG and that’s a huge problem. There just isn’t much of a market for 6’1” SGs in the NBA.

There isn’t a great history for freshmen PGs who post assist totals as low as Bledsoe has. I understand that his situation was different than most in that Wall was in front of him. I also feel he deserves props for coming through as well as he did as a scorer for Kentucky down the stretch. But all he has really shown is that he can be a very efficient scorer as the 3^rd or 4^th option on a very talented team and that just isn’t something any team should base too high a draft pick on. That being noted, I like how Eric Bledsoe performed this year and I feel he has at least a decent NBA future in front of him. I like his chances of mastering the PG position better than Bradley’s. Bledsoe has shown both the aggressiveness and ability to learn and adapt that Bradley hasn’t. While he does have a long way to go, Eric Bledsoe belongs in the discussion with Jeremy Lin as the 2^nd best PG prospect in the 2010 NBA draft.