NBA Draft 2010: Remaining Point Guards

Here is a look at the remaining PGs out there. Some players who might be thought of as PGs will be covered with the combo guards in upcoming articles. I haven’t done John Wall yet. I was planning on waiting until the end to look at the top prospects. Also with the Wizards winning the lottery, I’ll need time to ponder how the arrival of John Wall will affect the Crittenton era in DC. 

Mikhail Torrance, Alabama and Armon Johnson, Nevada: 

I had meant for this last PG analysis to be for underclassmen, and it was somehow in my mind that Mikhail Torrance was a sophomore. That makes this article a catch-all for the remaining PGs out there. This oversight was actually a good thing, because these are a couple of players who should be looked at together. Both are tall PGs who have moved into the 2^nd round of the mocks and could crash round one if they continue to impress at the camps and workouts. Here are their numbers: 

Johnson and Torrance are similar in style also. Both have the high 2-point pct. and A40, which is obviously good. Both are low on the RSB40, probably too low in Johnson’s case. The RSB40 is combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes and is a number I use to assign athleticism to a guard. The steals are the only stat in that number that is typically associated with guards. The reason I add in rebounds and blocks is it separates the guys who really dominate from those who are just ball hawks. Historically a high RSB40 has been a very good thing, while a low number has been a red flag for guards who still meet the necessary scoring, passing and efficiency criteria for prospects. The most important stat in the RSB40 is the steals. This is where both Johnson and Torrance fall way short. Johnson is at 0.95 S40, Torrance 1.02. The only PG prospect lower than these two is Jerome Randle at 0.85. Put simply these numbers are too low. There have been no players with a S40 this low as a junior or senior who have ever made much of a ripple in the NBA. The only all-star PG who was anywhere near 1.0 S40 was Deron Williams at 1.16. I have no explanation for Deron Williams’ success, other than to say there has probably been no prospect ever who outplayed his college numbers more than he has. Had Torrance or Johnson been the best player on an NCAA championship finalist as Williams was, I might be willing to entertain the idea of then outperforming their numbers.

Both Torrance and Johnson have other issues in addition to a low numbers of steals. Johnson has been a shaky 3-point shooter, finishing well below .300 the last couple of seasons. This has to count as another negative. Torrance became a prospect his senior season and that has often been somewhat of a red flag. This is especially true for a player like Torrance who didn’t even become a rotation guy until his junior year. There have been late-bloomers who succeeded after breaking out finally as a senior, but Torrance has only bloomed into a marginal prospect. Both Johnson and Torrance seem ticketed for the early 2^nd round. While both bring good size and a decent passing/scoring combination, the opinion here is both have too many holes in their game to use even a 2^nd round pick on. 

Dee Bost, Mississippi State and Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: A couple of early entrants that have folks scratching their heads as to why. I won’t dwell too much on Mason-Griffin. His RSB40 and efficiency are so low that it is hard to consider him more than a marginal prospect. That’s not even taking into account that he isn’t even 6’. It would be quite a leap of faith for any team to use a draft pick on Mason-Griffin because of any potential he flashed as freshman. I would have felt the same way about Bost had he not suddenly stepped up his game the last couple of months of his sophomore year. Here are his sophomore splits, along with his freshman numbers: 

Bost didn’t just improve his scoring efficiency. He swung his numbers from the back of the curve to the front. He became a prospect that has to be taken seriously. Because this happened in his sophomore season, when a player is more likely to be still developing, it is reasonable to think this improvement is real and not just a hot streak. Before I go overboard, I should point out that Bost still has a ways to go as a prospect. He still didn’t score frequently enough and his RSB40 is on the low side. It would have been helpful to watch him play for another season, but he made his move and this is what we have to work with. I would say that there will be worse ways to use a 2^nd round draft pick than taking a chance on Bost. Mo Williams comes to mind as a recent player who entered the draft after his soph season with a less-than-impressive career stat line, but went on to NBA success. Bost has the potential to do the same.