FIBA Tournament Post Script

1.    We Got Gold…Yay?: The evolution of the United States view on international basketball competition has drastically changed over the years.  In the late 1980s, the fact that our collegians couldn’t guarantee a gold medal bothered the U.S. committee enough to authorize the use of pros by 1992.  After a few years of success with NBAers, the world caught up enough to beat the U.S. pros in the early 2000s.  Now the U.S. committee has “professionalized” the whole process, having a regular coach and choosing players strategically enough that the gold medals are rolling again.  The present mood towards the U.S. team, however, is slightly more than apathetic.  It’s not that the U.S. team didn’t accomplish something significant in winnings its first FIBA World Championship since 1994 but that certain truths have become clear.

The most obvious one is that while the U.S. has the best players but some other countries have some serious talent sufficient to beat the U.S. team on any given day in international competition.  The games are shorter, the three-point line is closer, and the round robin format make upsets more likely too.  The risk of losses have been tangible since 1996.  Only recently, however, have NBA fans come to accept this fact as the number of international players who have starred in the NBA has grown.  But this isn’t just about stars.  There are a lot of good foreign role players now.  There are plenty of Yi Jianlians, Jose Calderons, Marc Gasols, who range from acceptable NBAers to pretty good starters all around international competition.

On some level, the belief that some have in some inherent American basketball exceptionalism has made this truth harder to embrace.  Still, now the U.S. teams face some serious threats in two or three games each tournament, which has helped ratchet expectations closer to reality, namely that the U.S. have to work to get a gold medal.  Now that this fact has been embraced more, the U.S. has focused in maximizing its advantages (athleticism and depth) without adding the types of players who really don’t translate as well in this context (high volume/low efficiency scorers).  The larger lesson is that humans, with proper training and planning, are as likely to be good at basketball anywhere in the world.  Rooting for your country is fun but, in the real world, rooting for a good basketball game to watch really is the best result for fans.

2.    Where Were The Stars?: Another fact that detracted a bit from the U.S. victory was the notable lack of foreign stars.  There were plenty of good players (Luis Scola had a great tourney) but many of the big names fans were used to (Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Dirk Nowitzki, Jose Calderon, or Andrei Kirilenko) weren’t there.  So, we didn’t get to see the real anticipated showdowns, particularly with Argentina and Spain.  Incidentally, here’s a rundown on some names you might recognize and how they did in the 2010 tournament by country:

Angola: Still the powerhouse of Africa in basketball but still without recognizable names.

Argentina: As noted, Luis Scola had a monster tourney, leading everyone with over 27 ppg.  Carlos Delfino was a solid number at 20 ppg.  Fabricio Oberto played on only five games and was his usual bruising self.  Federico Kammerichs was once an NBA prospect but barely played this year and had only one basket.

Australia: With Andrew Bogut injured, rookie Patrick Mills led the squad in points.  Former Rocket David Andersen was decent as a role player.  Old Aussies like Chris Anstey, Shane Heal, and Andrew Gaze are all retired now.

Brazil: The team was led by Leandro Barbosa and Tiago Splitter but also had Anderson Vaerjao for three games.  A couple of players with NBA cameos, Marcus Vinicius and Alex Garcia, also played.  Garcia was bona fide starter and solid but Vinicius was only a role player.

Canada: Heat center Joel Anthony led the team in scoring.  Former UConn guard Denham Brown had almost 10 ppg.  Andy Rautins, recent Syracuse grad, played in only two games and chucked tons of threes.

China: There was no Yao Ming but Wang Zhizhi is back playing for the national team as one of its better players.  Yi Jianlian actually played dominating at times and led the the tourney in rebounding.  China’s leader in minutes was former Laker Sun Yue, who had 10 ppg and led the team in blocks, assists, and steals.

Ivory Coast: Nothing to see here.

Croatia: The days of Kukoc, Radja, and Petrovic are long gone.  The most recognizable names here Roko Ukic, the Croatian Rajon Rondo (good defense no shot), who was solid but for the scoring issues.  Former Net Zoran Planinic was only a bit player (10 mpg).

France: Even without Parker and Mickael Pietrus, France still had quite a few NBA-level players.  Portland’s Nicolas Batum led the team in scoring.  Boris Diaw also led the team in minutes, rebounds, assists, and steals but struggled shooting.  Former Sonic Mickael Gelabale also played well (he has been out of the NBA since 2008).  Finally, former Spur Ian Mahinmi was active in limited minutes.

Germany: Without Dirk, there aren’t any really memorable names.  Former Penn State forward Jan Jagla led the team in scoring and rebounds.

Greece: They still have some of the players from their memorable upset of the United States in the 2006.   They are still led by ball handler Vassilis Spanoulis.  Antonis Fotsis (was on Memphis in 2001-02) played a few minutes in three games.  One of the first international players to intrigue me in the early 2000s, Sofoklis Schortsanitis also played 20 minutes per game.  He’s been Clipper property but he is older and looked slow.  He also had tons of fouls and turnovers and is not a real NBA prospect anymore (think a Greek/African Robert Traylor).  Former Florida point guard Nick Calathes, who shunned the NBA for a long-term deal in Greece, was bit player in Euro league and in this tourney.

Iran: Hamed Haddadi of the Grizz was pretty much the entire team (20 ppg, 8 rpg, 2.2 bpg).  He was effective but, oddly, Haddadi shot a ton of threes and not very well (5-21 in five games).

Jordan: No notable players.

Lebanon: They must be generous with citizenship because they have a couple of former NBA fringers who I don’t remember as Lebanese in Jackson Vroman and Matt Freije.  Vroman was probably Lebanon’s best plaer but Freije shot very poorly (9-33, 27%).

Lithuania: Linas Kleiza was the star of the team (19 ppg, .524 FG%).  A couple of prospects from a few years ago, Martynas Andriuskevicius and Robertas Javtokas, were role players at center.

New Zealand: No Sean Marks this year but former Wisconsin guard Kirk Penney was the teams best scorer and long distance shooter.

Puerto Rico: Another team with plenty of current and ex-NBAers.  Carlos Arroyo played only one game and Daniel Santiago, who was a mainstay of the national team in prior years, played only about 10 mpg.  Arroyo gave way to J.J. Barea of the Mavs, who led the team in scoring and assists.  The large Peter Ramos was fairly effective rebounding and but blocked only one shot.  Renaldo Balkman was treated as a role player (18 mpg), a fact that he did not accept willingly. Since he was the best rebounder on the team (33 in 89 minutes) he probably earned a little more time.

Russia: The Knicks had to be thrilled that their recent signee, Timofey Mozgov was the featured player and that he was very effective offensively.  Sergey Monya was also pretty solid as Andrei Kirilenko-lite.  Monya did a little bit of everything and average a team high in minutes.  Viktor Khryapa was on the roster but didn’t play.

Serbia: The only pros was Nenad Krstic, who played well when he wasn’t throwing chairs at people.  Former Warrior Kosta Perovic played solidly as a role player.

Slovenia: Another team with more pro players than one would expect.  The leading scorers are Goran Dragic and former Net Bostjan Nachbar.  Primoz Brezec was the designated rebounder and Uros Slokar (played with Toronto in 2006-07) was a backup forward.  We didn’t see the three most experienced Solvenians (Rasho Nesterovic, Sasha Vujacic, and Beno Udrih).

Spain: Spain’s pro program is getting rather larger.  They were missing Pau Gasol, Jose Calderon, and Sergio Rodriguez.  Still, Rudy Fernandez, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Marc Gasol led a balanced attack.  On top of that, Jorge Garbajosa (former Raptor starter) and Ricky Rubio also started.  Rubio looked good at moments but is still very raw.  He’ll really have to seriously improve his shooting (13-47 for .277% overall and 2-17 for .119% from three).  The Magic draftee Franz Vazquez looked good (30-38 from the field for an excellent .789% shooting).  Meanwhile, ex-Utah Jazz Raul Lopez played very little as a back up point.

Tunisia: No recognizable players.

Turkey: Turkey’s two best players, Hedo Turkoglu and Ersan Ilyasova, were its two NBAers.  Hedo led the team in shots but barely broke 40% from the field.

3.    Parsing the U.S. Stats: Despite all we’ve noted about how the U.S. has professionalized the process of running its national team, a review of the stats shows that the committee’s best decision, was getting Durant.  Mike Krzyzewski was also smart enough to identify his best player as KD and just let him run the shoot early and often.  Durant scored 22.8 ppg and shot .556% from the field (and .456% from three).  After Durant, the scoring was very balanced:  Chauncey Billups was second in scoring at 9.8 ppg and five other players scored between 7-10 ppg.

How does this team compare with past U.S. squads?  Here’s a look at the other NBA squads in Olympic competitions and their scoring margins:

Team PPG O-PPG Margin Result
1992 117.3 73.5 43.8 Gold (8-0)
1994 120.1 82.4 37.7 Gold (8-0)
1996 102.0 70.3 31.7 Gold (8-0)
2000 95.0 73.4 21.6 Gold (8-0)
2002 92.3 75.4 16.9 6th (6-3)
2004 88.1 83.5 4.6 Bronze (5-3)
2006 103.6 83.1 20.5 Bronze (8-1)
2008 106.2 78.4 27.8 Gold (8-0)
2010 92.8 68.2 24.6 Gold (9-0)

The 2010 team was one of the weaker team scoring-wise but yielded the fewest points.  I can’t seem to find the stats needed to do per-possession stats from 1992 through 2004, so we can’t tell if the new team played at a slower pace or that they were just a defense first team.  We can also see that while the 2002 team was vilified for quitting down the stretch (and they certainly did seem to disengage if you watched them)  the height of the U.S. struggles actually came in 2004 when Larry Brown chose to build his team around Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury (i.e. the ultimate low-efficiency high volume shooters) when they had LeBron James and Amare Stoudemire rotting on the bench.  Largely for this reason, the 2004 team ended up shooting .314% from three, an absolute killer in international play (no other NBA stocked U.S. team shot lower than 37%), while letting foes to shoot 44% from three and scoring the fewest points of any U.S. team.

Speaking of scoring, here’s the tourney-by-tourney U.S. points leaders:

-1992:  Charles Barkley, 18.0 ppg (.711 FG%)

-1994: Shaquille O’Neal, 18.0 ppg (.713 FG%)

-1996: David Robinson, 12.0 ppg (.680 FG%)

-2000: Vince Carter, 14.8 ppg (.506 FG%)

-2002: Paul Pierce, 19.8 ppg (.477 FG%)

-2004: Allen Iverson, 13.8 ppg (.378 FG%)

-2006: Carmelo Anthony, 19.9 ppg (.504 FG%)

-2008: Dwyane Wade, 16.0 ppg (.671 FG%)

-2010: Kevin Durant, 22.8 ppg (.556 FG%)

So, Durant is the most prolific scorer in U.S. international competition history.  Still, the lack of balance was evident here.  Since 1992, every U.S. team had at least three double figures scorers.  Durant was the only one on the U.S. squad.  Given the propensity for stars to avoid Olympics/FIBA once they are approaching or in their primes, it is fair to wonder if Durant will be back in 2012 and, if not, whether the U.S. can sufficiently replace his ability.  Not to harp on it but we also see, again, how poorly constructed the 2004 team was with AI’s brutal shooting.

Before we go, I thought we could go through a few fun statistical oddity from each international squad since 1992.  Here goes:

1992: As great as Michael Jordan was, he was the least efficient player on the 1992 squad besides Christian Laettner.  MJ shot only 51-113 from the field (.451%) and 4-19 from three (.211%).  Jordan’s 113 shots were the most shots attempted until Durant this year.

1994: Reggie Miller was the perfect international guard in 1994.  He shot a blistering 30-57 from three (.526%) for 137 points on only 73 shots.  Reggie “slumped” to 17-41 from three (.415%) in 1996.

1996: David Robinson was the featured scorer and shot well (68%).  In fact, he was so single minded that he had no assists in eight games despite having at least 87 touches(he took 50 shots and had 37 rebounds).

2000: Kevin Garnett pulled down a then record 73 boards.  Gary Payton continued his struggles from 1996.  He  shot 15-43 (.349%) overall in 2000 after he was 14-37 (.378%) in 1996.

2002: Pierce was remembered for his attitude issues but he played excellently (33-67 from three .493%).  The stealth bad players were Michael Finley (13.0 ppg, .404 FG% shooting) and, even more, Baron Davis (7.8 ppg, .379 FG%, 16-44 from three for .364%).

2004: We already mentioned that Iverson played way too much but Richard Jefferson was particularly brutal (18-56 for. 321% shooting and 12-22 from the line).  But despite the offensive issues, the real problem was the defense that let up way too many points for a team with so many great defenders.

-2006: The resurgent 2006 team featured Carmelo, D-Wade, and LeBron.  James actually racked up 37 assists but had 25 turnovers (this is the first year where we see turnovers in the stats).  Chris Paul, by contrast, had 44 assist and only 9 turnovers.

2008: Jason Kidd had one of those weird tournaments where he just didn’t shoot.  He had 7 shots in eight games (he made six of them and had no free throws).  He also had 16 assists.

2010: Durant broke MJ’s attempts record by a good margin (133 shots versus 113 for Jordan).  As a team, they held opponents to .301% from three, which really helped them clamp down on points.  The only U.S. team that did better against threes was the 2000 squad, which held teams to .281% from three.