I’m going to look at Anthony Davis with the idea that he’s going to play more center than PF, even though he’s listed as a PF. He’s over 6’10” in shoes and has a 7’5” wingspan. He has little in the way of a perimeter game and his main skill is blocking shots. All those things add up to Anthony Davis playing more center than PF. The only issue would be his slight frame. At 222 lb he’ll have to add some weight. Because he’s young and has already handled a legendary growth spurt with little, if any, loss in quickness and athleticism, my guess is that he can put on 30 lbs or so without losing effectiveness.
Now that I got my thoughts on his eventual NBA position out of the way, it’s time to evaluate Davis. Honestly he’s the best prospect I’ve seen since 2007 when Durant vs. Oden was a legitimate debate. There hasn’t been a big guy in the last 3 decades who was this good as a freshman. Davis is the first freshman I can find since Olajuwon who topped a .600 2 point pct, 12.0 R40 and 5.0 B40. Here is Davis compared with the best NBA centers of recent years in their freshman seasons:
| NCAA Freshmen |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Anthony Davis |
653 |
17.4 |
12.7 |
5.7 |
| Tim Duncan |
543 |
13.0 |
12.7 |
5.0 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon |
607 |
18.2 |
13.5 |
5.4 |
| Shaquille O’Neal |
573 |
19.8 |
17.1 |
5.1 |
| Alonzo Mourning |
609 |
18.6 |
10.3 |
7.0 |
| Patrick Ewing |
631 |
17.6 |
10.5 |
4.5 |
He stacks up very well with this group. It’s obviously early in his career, but Davis is right there with the best ever. Not many players ever have been able to say that. This is what makes him special and is why there has been practically no debate over who will go #1.
I also wanted to compare Davis to the most prolific college shot blockers of the past. Here are centers not from the first table who also topped 5.0 B40 in their freshman years.
| NCAA Freshmen |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Anthony Davis |
653 |
17.4 |
12.7 |
5.7 |
| Shawn Bradley |
517 |
20.5 |
10.7 |
7.2 |
| Jim McIlvaine |
579 |
16.8 |
9.9 |
6.9 |
| Samuel Dalembert |
503 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
6.7 |
| Alvin Jones |
500 |
8.9 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
| Jamaal Magliore |
490 |
12.5 |
11.3 |
5.1 |
I put this up to show that Anthony Davis is much more than just a skinny shot blocker. He’s also a very good rebounder and an ultra-efficient scorer. He doesn’t have the low 2PP or R40 that these others did.
One more table. This is Davis compared with freshman PFs. There just weren’t a lot of freshmen PFs who topped 5.0 B40, so I expanded the list to include those who topped 3.0 B40 along with .600 2PP and 12.0 R40:
| NCAA Freshmen |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
| Anthony Davis |
653 |
17.4 |
12.7 |
5.7 |
| Chris Webber |
601 |
19.5 |
12.5 |
3.1 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
607 |
18.2 |
12.7 |
3.4 |
| Tyrus Thomas |
606 |
19.1 |
14.2 |
4.8 |
| Brian Skinner |
598 |
18.8 |
11.7 |
5.5 |
Webber and Wallace both had great careers, but Davis could top them both. The big difference between Skinner and Davis at this point is Skinner had a big problem with turnovers, whereas Davis had a turnover rate that is extremely low. Ty Thomas is a good addition to the list, because he’ll forever be an example that anything can happen when we’re discussing NCAA freshmen. Any player’s career arc is wide at this point. Ty Thomas represents the low end of that arc for Anthony Davis. The players in the first table represent the high end. It’s important to mention that with any player there is a chance of failure no matter how stellar he looks as a freshman. The small chance of Davis becoming a bust does need to be mentioned, but shouldn’t be the focus here. Ty Thomas was an outlier. He was an outlier with a bad attitude who didn’t like being coached at that. All reports on Davis are that he’s well-equipped mentally and emotionally to handle NBA stardom.
Now that I’ve done the comps, I’d like to break this down a little more.
Defense: Davis has the potential to become a great defensive player in the NBA. I would go so far as to say I expect him to challenge for Defensive POY for most of his career. As an NCAA freshman he blocked shots at a rate few have ever matched. He was the backbone of the best defense in the nation. He brings a 7’5” wingspan, so he can play taller than his height would suggest. There is little not to like here. The only worry I could see is his size. He weighs just 222 and the concern would be that he’ll get pushed around by bigger, stronger NBA centers. As I mentioned in the first paragraph, he has already handled a growth spurt well, so I doubt putting on the necessary weight and muscle will hinder him too much. It is something to note though.
Offense: Davis is still a very raw player on offense. He takes few jump shots. Almost all of his points come from dunks and put backs. He is a very efficient, low-mistake player. He rarely misses a shot and has a turnover rate that ranks among the lowest ever. There is a lot of potential for improvement here. Davis hit 65% of his 2-point shots. If this were an easy thing to do, more players would do it. The fact that Davis is one of the select few to ever hit that figure tells me the ceiling for him as an offensive player is pretty high. Keep in mind that he’s 19 and the center position is fairly new to him. Considering his physical gifts, I find it hard to believe that he won’t develop at least some sort of offensive arsenal. At best he’ll use his elite athleticism to develop an effective offensive game and become an efficient 20-25 PPG center.
Intangibles: This also appears to be a huge positive for him. I mean the guy is so likeable he actually had me happy Kentucky won the championship. By all accounts he brings a positive attitude and great work ethic. I see no reason to think he’ll get lazy or cop a bad attitude. But stuff can happen when wealthy young men are involved. It’s the nature of the beast. But right now everything I’ve seen and read about Anthony Davis says he’s a solid citizen.
The sky is the limit for Anthony Davis. At worst he’s a great NBA defender and a low-mistake player who doesn’t hinder a team on offense. At best he develops an effective offensive game and by his 4th year he’s pumping in an efficient 20-25 PPG, finishing in the top 10 in rebounds and blocks while challenging for the defensive POY award. That’s a perennial MVP candidate and that’s where I believe Anthony Davis is headed.