The 2008-09 college basketball season saw a couple of historically great rebounding performances by Dejuan Blair and Blake Griffin, the top 2 players in this group. Here are the best rebounding seasons ever, or at least in the past 20 or so years, as measured by rebounds per 40 minutes by NCAA sophomore PFs:
Player |
2 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
Dejuan Blair |
.593 |
22.8 |
17.9 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
Blake Griffin |
.659 |
26.2 |
16.6 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
Antonio McDyess |
.514 |
21.3 |
15.6 |
0.3 |
4.4 |
LaPhonso Ellis |
.516 |
17.4 |
15.6 |
0.6 |
3.3 |
Jerome Lane |
.570 |
17.9 |
15.2 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
Tyrone Hill |
.557 |
21.5 |
14.7 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
Larry Johnson |
.648 |
26.1 |
14.5 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
Joey Dorsey |
.631 |
13.0 |
14.2 |
0.7 |
5.6 |
Michael Ruffin |
.566 |
12.1 |
14.1 |
0.5 |
3.6 |
Dale Davis |
.670 |
20.9 |
14.0 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
Danny Fortson |
.539 |
29.2 |
13.9 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
PJ Brown |
.457 |
14.2 |
13.7 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
Emeka Okafor |
.580 |
19.3 |
13.6 |
0.2 |
6.8 |
Charles Barkley |
.644 |
20.7 |
13.6 |
0.6 |
3.9 |
Sean May |
.468 |
21.0 |
13.6 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
Derrick Coleman |
.595 |
16.7 |
13.6 |
1.0 |
3.6 |
Jack Haley |
.409 |
8.0 |
13.4 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
In case anyone was wondering, yes I did stretch the bottom down to 13.4 for the sole purpose of including Jack Haley. Numbers this great have Griffin and Blair 1-2 on my list. This group wanes pretty quickly after the top 2. This might be the weakest PF class I’ve rated. There’s no depth and every player, including Griffin has a question mark or two.
Player |
fgpct | 3pct | 2 pct | P40 | R40 | A40 | S40 | B40 | TO40 | A/TO |
Aminu, Alade |
0.522 |
0.000 |
0.522 |
16.54 |
11.13 |
0.95 |
1.67 |
2.48 |
2.84 |
0.33 |
Blair, Dejuan |
0.593 |
0.000 |
0.593 |
22.81 |
17.91 |
1.74 |
2.24 |
1.41 |
1.82 |
0.95 |
Brockman, Jon |
0.526 |
0.000 |
0.528 |
18.17 |
14.04 |
1.40 |
1.11 |
0.11 |
2.33 |
0.60 |
Gibson, Taj |
0.601 |
0.000 |
0.601 |
16.96 |
10.72 |
1.49 |
1.15 |
3.39 |
2.44 |
0.61 |
Griffin, Blake |
0.654 |
0.375 |
0.659 |
26.17 |
16.61 |
2.64 |
1.29 |
1.35 |
3.82 |
0.69 |
Hansbrough, T |
0.514 |
0.391 |
0.521 |
25.18 |
9.87 |
1.22 |
1.50 |
0.43 |
2.25 |
0.54 |
Heyvelt, Josh |
0.544 |
0.404 |
0.572 |
20.42 |
8.94 |
0.89 |
0.81 |
1.21 |
1.73 |
0.51 |
Hill, Jordan |
0.537 |
0.000 |
0.537 |
20.68 |
12.49 |
1.67 |
1.00 |
1.93 |
3.23 |
0.52 |
Johnson, James |
0.542 |
0.319 |
0.598 |
18.29 |
10.38 |
2.44 |
1.73 |
1.89 |
2.91 |
0.84 |
Lyons, Leo |
0.493 |
0.357 |
0.499 |
24.04 |
10.03 |
3.26 |
1.69 |
1.16 |
3.79 |
0.86 |
Nivins, Ahmad |
0.612 |
0.000 |
0.614 |
19.48 |
12.01 |
1.02 |
0.83 |
1.78 |
2.76 |
0.37 |
Pendergraph, J |
0.660 |
0.000 |
0.662 |
18.95 |
10.68 |
1.15 |
0.63 |
1.12 |
1.12 |
1.03 |
Taggart, Shawn |
0.509 |
0.174 |
0.540 |
16.19 |
11.79 |
0.55 |
1.01 |
2.14 |
1.72 |
0.32 |
I didn’t get to analyzing ether Lyons or Heytvelt. Time constraints. Suffice to say both are marginal prospects. The benchmarks I look at for PFs are a 2 pt. pct. of .570, P40 of 18.0, R40 of 10.0 and SB40 of 2.5. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other factors being equal.
1. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma: The simple question with Griffin would be: How good can he become? I guess that’s the question with all prospects, but with Griffin being the season-long consensus #1 pick people are wondering more about what exactly they’re getting here. His numbers are obviously great. He was near impossible to stop from scoring and he put in a historic rebounding year, as the table in the intro shows. Not too many players have ever topped 40 in combined points and rebounds per 40 minutes. Only a few have done it as sophomores. Here’s a list of players who have accomplished this:
Player |
Year |
2 pt. Pct. |
3 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
Glenn Robinson |
2 |
.587 |
.380 |
35.6 |
11.9 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
Xavier McDaniel |
4 |
.559 |
N/A |
29.5 |
16.1 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
Larry Johnson |
2 |
.648 |
.342 |
26.1 |
14.5 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
Drew Gooden |
3 |
.523 |
.235 |
26.4 |
15.2 |
0.7 |
4.2 |
Raef LaFrentz |
4 |
.552 |
.471 |
26.2 |
15.1 |
0.4 |
3.2 |
Mike Sweetney |
3 |
.550 |
.000 |
28.2 |
12.8 |
0.9 |
5.8 |
Gerald Glass |
3 |
.565 |
.376 |
31.4 |
9.5 |
0.7 |
4.4 |
Lionel Simmons |
3 |
.497 |
.375 |
29.2 |
11.7 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
Danny Fortson |
2 |
.539 |
.000 |
29.2 |
13.9 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
Derrick Chievious |
4 |
.507 |
.515 |
29.7 |
10.9 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
Adam Keefe |
4 |
.553 |
.455 |
27.2 |
13.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
Armon Gilliam |
3 |
.600 |
N/A |
28.7 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
Keith Van Horn |
4 |
.537 |
.387 |
28.0 |
12.0 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
Nick Fazekas |
4 |
.591 |
.431 |
26.9 |
14.6 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
Wayman Tisdale |
2 |
.577 |
N/A |
29.8 |
10.7 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
Michael Beasley |
1 |
.562 |
.379 |
31.3 |
14.7 |
0.4 |
3.5 |
Blake Griffin |
2 |
.659 |
.375 |
26.2 |
16.6 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
Johnson, Fortson and Tisdale reached this number in other years, but I used their soph season to better comp with Griffin. I’ll mention that I consider Tisdale’s numbers a little dubious, because of the fast pace Billy Tubbs’ team played at. Griffin is the best rebounder of this group and has the highest FG pct. That is obviously a good thing. What’s not good is this list just isn’t exactly bubbling over with NBA greatness. I used the same group for Beasley last year and that was the one thing that struck me. There are a few players who made an all-star team or two, but no HOFers here. It’s great that Griffin piled up these numbers, but topping 40 and making this list has hardly been a harbinger of greatness.
Where Griffin comes up a little short is on blocks and steals. Most of the premier PFs topped 4.0 as collegians. Here are the sophomore numbers of the elite PFs of the last several years and along with Griffin:
Player |
2 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
Tim Duncan |
.594 |
18.4 |
13.7 |
0.7 |
5.1 |
Charles Barkley |
.644 |
20.7 |
13.6 |
0.6 |
3.9 |
Larry Johnson |
.698 |
28.6 |
13.7 |
1.3 |
4.0 |
Karl Malone |
.576 |
23.8 |
11.1 |
0.4 |
2.9 |
Antonio McDyess |
.514 |
21.3 |
15.6 |
0.3 |
4.4 |
Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
4.7 |
Rasheed Wallace |
.657 |
22.0 |
10.8 |
0.7 |
4.3 |
Chris Webber |
.679 |
24.2 |
12.7 |
0.9 |
4.9 |
Shawn Marion |
.573 |
22.8 |
11.3 |
0.9 |
5.3 |
Derrick Coleman |
.595 |
16.7 |
13.6 |
1.0 |
3.8 |
Carlos Boozer |
.667 |
25.7 |
12.2 |
0.6 |
2.1 |
Chris Bosh |
.576 |
20.3 |
11.6 |
0.5 |
4.0 |
Blake Griffin |
.659 |
26.2 |
16.6 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
Bosh’s numbers are for his freshman year, since that’s his only college season. Marion’s are for his junior year, as that was his only major college season. A problem with PFs is some of the best in recent years, Garnett, Nowitzki and Kemp, never went to college, or went to small college, Baker and Rodman. The players above are PFs who made all-NBA teams. There are 2, Malone and Boozer, who failed to top 3.0 like Griffin has. This shows a SB40 over 3.5 is a good thing for a player to have, but not completely necessary. Another thing I’ll toss out there again is how good Griffin’s scoring/rebounding numbers are. It’s impressive that he can put up numbers better than this entire group.
The first table suggests his scoring/rebounding numbers don’t always mean greatness is imminent. But Griffin is a little different from most of these players. He’s mainly an inside player, which makes him most comparable to Gooden, Sweetney, Fortson and Gilliam. Griffin is better than all those players at this point. Gooden and Sweetney had a low shooting percentage, or at least lower than what a prospect should be. Sweetney also packed on a ton of weight as a pro and lost any effectiveness he had because of it.
Fortson played some very productive minutes in the NBA, but was always slowed by foul trouble and injuries. Gilliam’s numbers could be a little high, because they were put up at UNLV, a run n’ gun school. Even if they are legit, he was nowhere near the rebounder Griffin has been.
The second table concerns me a little bit more than the first. The two players who garnered all-NBA honors without having topped 3.5 SB40 played in a system that featured the PF. This isn’t to say Malone and Boozer aren’t good, or in Malone’s case great, players. They are. It’s just that I doubt anyone would argue that their numbers, careers and awards were boosted by playing in the system at Utah. It doesn’t appear Griffin will be so lucky, at least at the start of his career.
What we have here is a great offense/weak defense mix. Griffin seems likely to become a double-double machine in the pros. Because he scored and rebounded so often and easily in college and he’s going to get every opportunity to succeed, I can’t imagine it turning out any other way. I think he’ll be a regular in the 20-10 club and he could even be better than that. The defense is probably never going to be good. Griffin isn’t an elite athlete by NBA standards and his arms are short for someone who’s 6’10”. Because of that it’s unlikely he’ll be anything other than an ordinary defender. That hardly dooms his career though. There have been several poor or indifferent defenders who have thrived at PF. Including Barkley, Coleman, Randolph and Boozer to name a few. I’d like Griffin better if the defensive numbers were stronger, but I don’t think this weakness is so huge that it will keep him on the bench. Blake Griffin put up some historic scoring and rebounding numbers in college. I expect him to continue putting up big numbers in the pros. But he’s going to have to improve his defense, if he wants to take his career from marginal all-star to NBA all-timer.
Most similar players to Blake Griffin:
Zach Randolph, freshman: .883
Michael Bradley, sophomore: .878
Todd MacColloch, sophomore: .875
Clarence Weatherspoon, sophomore: .874
Michael Smith, junior: .872
No player is very close to Griffin here, so there isn’t much to be gleaned here.
2. Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh: If you look at the list of great sophomore rebounders in the intro, you’ll notice that Blair is the only player other than Barkley to also top the important PF benchmarks of .570 FG pct, 20.0 P40 and 3.5 SB40. I like a player who does all the important things well. That’s pretty much what I base these projections on. It seems that it’s more important to do all the necessary things well enough than it is to be off the charts in one or two statistical categories while coming up weak in the others. For a PF prospect the important categories are 2 pt. FG pct, P40, R40 and SB40. Here are past NCAA PFs who, like Blair, topped .580 2 pt. pct, 20.0 P40, 12.0 R40 and 3.5 SB40:
Player |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
A/TO |
SB40 |
Charles Barkley |
.638 |
21.3 |
13.4 |
0.9 |
4.0 |
Chris Webber |
.679 |
24.2 |
12.7 |
0.9 |
4.9 |
Elton Brand |
.620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
0.6 |
4.7 |
Larry Johnson |
.698 |
28.6 |
13.7 |
1.3 |
4.0 |
Derrick Coleman |
.587 |
20.4 |
13.8 |
1.2 |
5.6 |
Emeka Okafor |
.599 |
21.8 |
14.2 |
0.4 |
6.3 |
Joe Smith |
.586 |
25.5 |
13.0 |
0.6 |
5.4 |
Nick Collison |
.594 |
23.2 |
12.4 |
0.7 |
5.0 |
Clarence Weatherspoon |
.593 |
20.3 |
13.9 |
0.9 |
4.0 |
Shelden Williams |
.582 |
22.6 |
12.8 |
0.4 |
6.6 |
Clifford Rozier |
.629 |
23.5 |
13.8 |
0.5 |
3.9 |
Dejuan Blair |
.593 |
22.8 |
17.9 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
The group has everything. There’s a HOFer, all-stars, rotation regulars, journeymen and Cliff Rozier. Shelden Williams is still a career waiting to happen, but I suspect he’s on his way to at least journeyman status. Rozier is the only other player here who didn’t have a long NBA career, but this article suggests he probably wasn’t equipped for NBA success, despite having great talent. In general this is a pretty good group to be in with. There are a couple of things to point out here though. The first is the most successful players in this group all posted a FG pct. over .600. Blair is more comparable to the rotation regulars with his .593. The next is I could up the SB40 standard on this test to 4.0 and get rid of both Rozier, the only bust of the bunch, and Blair. So while it’s impressive that Blair is a part of this exclusive stat club, he definitely compares more closely with players at the lower end.
Blair’s height has become an issue, but it doesn’t bother me much. He’s 6’7” in shoes with a wingspan of 7’2”. With his girth, that would seem to make him formidable enough. I’m a little more concerned about his weight. He seemed to be carrying a little too much of it during the season and this is something he’ll have to fix. Since he’s only 20, I don’t see this as a problem just yet. It could be a case of a young guy who let himself get a little heavy, because it didn’t affect his ability to dominate a game at the college level. I’ve read reports that he’s dropped as much as 15 lbs for the workouts and has become much quicker because of it. If this is true, it’s a very good sign.
My feeling is that Blair will become a pretty solid NBA player. At the low end he’ll be a valuable reserve who has one of the best rebounding rates in the league. At the high end he’s a starter who’s always one of the league leaders in rebounding. I doubt he’ll ever be enough of a scorer to be an all-star, but he’s going to be an effective player.
Most similar players to Dejuan Blair:
Ryan Bowen, junior: .901
Sean May, junior: .896
Josh Howard, junior: .890
Christian Laetner, junior: .881
Zach Randolph, freshman: .865
Like Griffin, Blair high rebound rate makes him a difficult player to comp. Because no one compares closely to him as a rebounder, the system lets a couple of SFs with other similar numbers creep close to him. I will say that it’s a good thing that all five players had or appear to be on track for long careers.
3. James Johnson, Wake Forest: The important thing with Johnson is all his numbers land above the benchmarks. He doesn’t blow them all away like Blair did, but he did surpass them. I also like that Johnson is a versatile player. He can score from inside and out. He gets a fair amount of steals, assists and blocks. A young player like Johnson who has a diverse game would seem like a good investment. His 2-point percentage has been at .574 and .598 for his two seasons. This is a pretty impressive. It suggests he might have the stuff to become a 20 PPG scorer. This along with the rest of his game should make him a pretty attractive player.
Johnson has a couple of stats that are kind of scary though. The first shows his propensity for firing up 3-pointers:
James Johnson |
2 pt pct |
2 pt att |
3 pt pct |
3pt att |
Freshman |
.574 |
237 |
.280 |
100 |
Sophomore |
.598 |
276 |
.319 |
69 |
At least he checked in with a better ratio this past year, so he’s going in the right direction. It’s not that it’s bad for him to shoot some treys. The problem is he’s much more efficient when he’s shooting 2-pointers, so that’s where his focus should be. The next stat is free throw attempts per 40 minutes. Johnson was last among PF prospects this year at 3.89. The only PFs who have been under 4.0 while scoring over 18 P40 as Johnson did were Antonio McDyess, Terry Mills and Harvey Grant. This is also an efficiency issue, because getting to the line means easy points. What worries me about these two stats is it might expose Johnson as somewhat of a soft player. That he’s a big guy who prefers to take the jump shot rather than using his size to score on the inside where things are much rougher. That he’s leery about driving it and drawing hard fouls. I’m not saying this is the case, but the evidence points in that direction.
That being said, Johnson looks like a decent prospect. He brings a diverse game and an upside that’s pretty impressive. His rebounding improved as his sophomore season progressed, a good thing since his totals are a tad low. I’m worried about the toughness though. Generally I don’t like to mention such intangibles, but when the numbers suggest there’s a problem I bring it into the mix. While toughness is a word used too often in praising or deriding prospects, it is an important trait for a prospect to have. If Johnson lacks it, he’ll be out of the league pretty quickly. I still like him as a player because of his upside. He has borderline all-star potential and there are only 2 other PFs who can say that this year. It’s possible the toughness issue I raised is a case of me looking at too many numbers in too short a period of time and making some crazy stuff up. But James Johnson won’t reach his potential until he uses his scoring ability to its maximum efficiency. That means more 2-pointers and trips to the line.
Most similar players to James Johnson:
James Augustine, sophomore: .948
Andrew DeClerq, junior: .941
Mario Bennett, freshman: .928
John Wallace, junior: .925
Chuck Hayes, junior: .924
4. Jordan Hill, Arizona: I’ve been knocking Jordan Hill since the start of this process. While others had him a regular in the top 5, I usually placed him around #30. Though I detect some movement downward for him, he seems very likely to remain in the top 5-10. So let’s take a look at what we have n Jordan Hill. He’s a 3rd-year player who had been in more of a support role previous to this season. Here are his numbers through the years:
Jordan Hill |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
Freshman |
.652 |
13.0 |
11.2 |
3.0 |
0.1 |
Sophomore |
.620 |
18.5 |
11.1 |
3.0 |
0.4 |
Junior |
.537 |
20.7 |
12.5 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
The freshman Hill was a raw player who showed some promise. The sophomore Hill was actually a pretty strong prospect himself. The totals were all a little soft, but his efficiency was excellent. This player would have been worth a draft pick. This year’s Hill added some rebounding, lost a lot of efficiency and did nothing to improve his defensive numbers.
The two numbers that concern me are his .537 FG pct. and the 2.9 SB40. Generally it’s best for top prospects to exceed .570 and 3.5. Hill easily topped .570 his first couple of seasons, but I’m not sure how real that was. I suspect his offense as a freshman consisted mainly of putbacks and easy layups. Last year, it was probably much of the same, but .620 on 18.5 P40 is impressive. This past season when he became one of the top 2 offensive options his percentage dropped to the .537 that has me so concerned. This is one of those numbers that’s a red flag if it’s too far below .570 or so. Here are some players who had some success after posting a sub-.550 2-point pct:
Player |
2 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
Karl Malone |
.541 |
22.9 |
12.4 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
Sam Perkins |
.548 |
20.2 |
11.2 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
Antonio Davis |
.545 |
18.1 |
10.1 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
Drew Gooden |
.523 |
26.4 |
15.2 |
4.2 |
0.7 |
Andrew Declerq |
.547 |
13.1 |
11.7 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
Chuck Hayes |
.547 |
13.8 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
1.5 |
Kenny Thomas |
.537 |
20.6 |
11.4 |
4.1 |
1.0 |
Alan Henderson |
.534 |
21.7 |
12.5 |
3.9 |
0.6 |
Jason Caffey |
.521 |
18.9 |
9.3 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
Jerome Williams |
.515 |
14.3 |
13.2 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
Troy Murphy |
.499 |
24.0 |
10.2 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
Jordan Hill |
.537 |
20.7 |
12.5 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
I didn’t include players like Pat Garrity and Keith van Horn who used the outside shot as more of a weapon. I just felt they weren’t similar players to Hill, who has yet to attempt a 3-pointer, and therefore weren’t relevant. I guess the good news is the appearance of Karl Malone. Like Hill, Malone looked like an ordinary prospect in college. As we all know, malone became one of the greatest PFs ever. But there are a couple of things to mention before we start calling Hill Mailman II. Malone was an outlier. He became a much better player than his stats suggested. There have been many players over the years who looked like ordinary prospects, but could have been sold as being better than Karl Malone was at this point. Most of these players never had an impact. The next is Karl Malone played at Louisiana Tech in the pre-shot clock 80s. I have little idea about how that team operated. I have no idea if those teams ran a slowpoke offense that suppressed Malone’s stats or not. All I have are the raw stats of Karl Malone from 1985. So while it’s good for Hill that Malone is on this list, it’s probably best to focus on the other players. The other players just weren’t all that good. The players who were superior to Hill at this point were Gooden and Henderson. I’d also throw Malone and Perkins in there, since this was a down year for both. Gooden seems at the end of his run as a starter and will likely finish out his career as a reserve, with his facial hair probably getting crazier with each passing year. Henderson was a journeyman’s journeyman. Perkins had a strong career and was able to stick around a long time because he developed an effective outside shot. Of the others only Davis had a real strong career. He was obviously a late bloomer.
What this chart shows is Hill just doesn’t look like anything more than a career journeyman. There is some good stuff in his career. I like that he shot over 60% his first two seasons. I like that his rebound rate has consistently improved. I like that he destroyed both Cole Aldrich and Josh Heytvelt in head-to-head matchups this year. I don’t like that he can’t get his SB40 over 3.0. This is something that even the rawest of top PF prospects should be able to do. I don’t like that his team was so ordinary despite featuring two first round draftees. What bothers me the most is his .537 2-point pct. this year when he became a top scoring option. History simply hasn’t been kind to such players. I feel any team drafting Jordan Hill in the top 10 and expecting him to become something of a cornerstone will come to regret it. He looks like nothing more than a decent journeyman.
Most similar players to Jordan Hill:
Jared Reiner, junior: .977
Marlon Maxey, sophomore: .956
AJ Bramlett, senior: .948
Dan Gadzuric, senior: .934
Aaron Gray, junior: .932
5. Taj Gibson, USC: The best shot blocking PF in the draft. Gibson also has some other skills. He’s been a consistently efficient scorer at USC, always averaging over 1.4 PPS and topping out at 1.58 this past season. He knows how to get to the line. His rebounding has always been solid and there are no red flags in his passing game. He doesn’t score much, but might be a tad better than advertised, because the Trojans were always more of a perimeter team. He’s good enough on offense that he won’t hurt a team. Gibson should become a good bench player. He’s a proven shot blocker and he has the NBA length. He should be able to find a role off a bench somewhere.
Most similar players to Taj Gibson:
Brian Skinner, sophomore: .977
Dwayne Schintzius, senior: .932
Jason Lawson, sophomore: .930
Mel Turpin, sophomore: .929
Craig Forth, senior: .928
If nothing else happens in this silly similarity system that makes sense, I think I can safely point to the comp of Gibson to Skinner as one time it actually seems like it got it right.
6. Ahmad Nivins, St. Josephs: Before this season, Nivins had been a good college player who fell short as a prospect because he was an atrocious rebounder. He was one of the most efficient scorers in the nation but his rebounding and other numbers were poor, so he really wasn’t on anyone’s radar. That changed this past year:
Ahamd Nivins |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
PF40 |
Freshman |
.618 |
10.8 |
8.8 |
3.0 |
0.2 |
5.0 |
Sophomore |
.622 |
18.7 |
8.6 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
3.3 |
Junior |
.647 |
17.1 |
6.9 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
3.4 |
Senior |
.614 |
19.5 |
12.0 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
I can’t say why he suddenly developed a nose for the loose ball. It’s not like the Hawk’s roster was dotted with all-American inside players who were crowding Nivins out of rebounds the previous 3 seasons. It wasn’t just rebounding he improved in either. He cut both his turnovers and fouls. I’m leery of such sudden success and for that reason I’m a little cautious about moving Nivins up too much. Any player who shoots over .600 with 12.0 R40 is worth a look though and in this weak class Nivins is a borderline first rounder.
Most similar players to Ahmad Nivins:
Eric Montross, junior: .972
Jason Keep, senior: .948
Brad Lohaus, senior: .935
Chris Burgess, senior: .935
Felton Spencer, junior: .931
Looking at this bunch, I’m not sure I even want Nivins to succeed. Seriously, he fits the mold of the big, lumbering center.
7. Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina: As the face of college basketball, Hansbrough is a hard player to ignore and mention without all the hype that has followed him. I try to focus on the numbers and each players’ chance based on those numbers without bringing outside influences into it. Hansbrough falls short just about everywhere. He scored a ton of points, which is good. But his other numbers are weak. I’ll do the same thing I did with Hill, only I’ll compare Hansbrough with successful senior PFs who finished with a 2-point pct. under .540.
Player |
2 pt. Pct. |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
Ryan Gomes |
.540 |
23.1 |
8.8 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
Keith Van Horn |
.537 |
28.0 |
12.0 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
David West |
.532 |
22.0 |
13.1 |
3.3 |
1.2 |
David Lee |
.532 |
19.4 |
12.8 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
Tom Gugliotta |
.488 |
24.4 |
10.6 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
Dale Davis |
.535 |
20.6 |
14.0 |
4.6 |
0.6 |
Antonio Davis |
.524 |
13.9 |
9.8 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
PJ Brown |
.500 |
17.0 |
13.2 |
4.5 |
0.7 |
Tyler Hansbrough |
.521 |
25.2 |
9.9 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
I stuck with players who became at least a regular. This is a pretty strong group. I’ll toss Antonio Davis out of the mix to start with. As mentioned in the Hill comment, he was a late bloomer. Not much I can do to explain him. The players listed above Hansbrough were either excellent rebounders/defenders or could hit the 3-pointer. With the exception of Antonio Davis, all were better passers than Hansbrough. Hansbrough’s low assist total strikes me as a bigger negative for him than most, because he was playing with 3 perimeter players who hit well over 40% of their treys. Defensively he tops only Gomes, who might be somewhat of a stretch on a list that includes only regulars anyways. Hansbrough just doesn’t measure up to any of these players.
The fact is Tyler Hansbrough is more than just a notch or two below the likes of Griffin and Blair. He really isn’t in the conversation at all when it comes to who are the best PF prospects in college basketball. He just comes up short in every way imaginable other than his P40. His defense is weak, he doesn’t score efficiently enough and his rebounding is marginal at best. I suspect he can develop a nice little outside shot eventually and that might keep him around as a role player. But he’s not going to be a regular, let alone a star. Whatever the dynamics were at North Carolina that made him the College POTY simply aren’t going to be there in the pros.ost similar players to Tyler Hansbrough:
Glen Sekunda, junior: .955
Jerome Williams, junior: .942
Craig Smith, junior: .926
Bruce Vounang, senior: .918
Terrence Leather, senior: .916
8. Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State: What brings Pendergraph down is his low defensive numbers. Everything else is decent enough. It should be noted that as a junior he blocked more shots and posted a solid 3.1 SB40. I have no idea why it was down so much this season. That’s a good news/bad news thing. It’s good that he was able to get the number to an acceptable level once, but bad that he only did it once in four tries. If he can get that defense he had as a junior going in the pros, he could stick in the league for a bit. At his best he isn’t much more than a 4th big guy.
Most similar players to Jeff Pendergraph:
Tony Massenberg, junior .901
Otis Thorpe, junior: .891
Nate Harris, senior: .883
Stuart Gray, junior: .881
Lawrence Funderburke, junior: .876
9. John Brockman, Washington: He has that impressive R40 number, but little else to like about him. The majority of players who rebound this well do make it to the league in some level, so Brockman has that going for him. Most of these players were also strong shot blockers and hit over 57% of their shots and Brockman can’t make that claim. It’s also a bad thing for a PF prospect that he didn’t hit double figures in blocks in any one of his four college seasons. I suppose he could be useful as a rebounder off the bench, but the fact that he’d be wildly overmatched defensively would be a problem. I just can’t see Brockman making it.
Most similar players to John Brockman:
Jason Capel, senior: .862
Michael Smith, senior: .859
Tom Kleinschmidt, junior: .851
Jonas Hayes, senior: .832
Clayton Johnson, junior: .817
Because of a quirk in the system, Brockman’s low blocks totals make it difficult to comp him. That’s why we see some SGs here.
10 & 11. Alade Aminu, Georgia Tech and Shawn Taggart, Memphis: A couple of similar players. Both have strong defensive and rebounding numbers. Both also have weak scoring numbers and a low A/TO. One reason I might give either one a chance is both played on talented teams and neither one was a featured scorer. For that reason their numbers may be a little suppressed. Both have good size and are probably worth a look.
Most similar players to Alade Aminu:
Francisco Elson, senior: .946
Terrence Morris, junior: .946
Taj Gray, junior: .943
Greg Anderson, senior: .938
Alan Henderson, junior: .927
Most similar players to Shawn Taggart:
Jon Koncak, sophomore: .972
Jared Reiner, junior: .954
Pervis Pasco, junior: .951
Rahein Brown, senior: .950
Jake Voskuhl, junior: .947