Transactions 12/9-12/10 (Part 2)

New York Knicks

12/10    Waived Chauncey Billups

12/10    In a sign-and-trade three-team, Dallas sent Tyson Chandler, the rights to Giorgos Printezis, and Ahmad Nivins to New York for Andry Rautins and a conditional 2012 second-round pick from Washington; Washington received Ronny Turiaf, a 2013 second-round pick and cash from New York, and a 2012 second-round pick from Dallas

12/11    Re-signed Jared Jeffries and signed Mike Bibby

Chandler is exactly the kind of athletic, quality, defensive big man that the Knicks have been desperate for since they had Marcus Camby (no…Ronny Turiaf doesn’t count).  Assuming he stays healthy, Chandler fits into the team perfectly.  He can run and he doesn’t need shots to be effective. Chandler, however, is far from risk free.  Before last year, he missed almost half of the previous two seasons and was at diminished capacity when he did play (averaging a PER of 13.0 those years).  The question is whether Chandler’s career high PER in 2011-11 was flukish and whether he can stay healthy.

In addition, the Knicks had to cut their point guard in Billups to fit Billups under the cap.  So, if you throw in the Chandler’s injury history and the loss of Billups, this is still a deal the Knicks had to do but it tempers my enthusiasm a little.   One thing to watch on the injury front is that Mike D’Antoni tended ride his best players really hard last year:

Raymond Felton, 38.4 mpg

Amare Stoudemire, 36.8 mpg

Carmelo Anthony, 36.2 mpg

Danilo Gallinari, 34.8 mpg

Wilson Chandler, 34.5 mpg

Transactions 12/9-12/10 (Part 1)

Atlanta Hawks

12/9    Signed Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmanovic, and re-signed Jason Collins

Did you know that T-Mac is only 32?  In a part-time role, McGrady wasn’t actually that bad for the Pistons either.  The problem is that one of the most exciting players of the 2000s is now, at best, an average bench guy who can’t really get to the line and is a decent shooter.  On a playoff-level team, T-Mac’s presence as a cheap filler will have value, assuming the knees hold up well enough.  The hope, though, is that McGrady can replace Jamal Crawford off the bench.  At first blush this seems silly.  McGrady can’t move very well these days and Crawford got ridiculously hot at times.  Looking at the advanced metrics, though, T-Mac actually had a slightly higher PER than Crawford (14.9 to 14.2) and shot exactly the same from three (.341%).  Does this mean that McGrady is a more valuable player?   Well…no.  Part of Crawford’s value was the ability to generate tons of shots (13.7 shots and 4.1 free throws per-36 versus 11.0 and 2.8 for McGrady).  The Hawks are downgrading on 2010-11 stats (though not by as much as you would think).  Still when you combine the volume with the possibility that McGrady might get hurt again or continue his steep decline from his peak, there is plenty of risk that the Hawks will have a big hole at backup sixth man.

As for Radmanovic, he has demonstrated that he will never be a regular but is also useful in a bench role.  While Vlad still can’t play any defense and is thus not a viable starter, he will help the Hawks replace the tons of threes lost when Crawford doesn’t come back.  In short, the Hawks’ filler is useful but has some holes. 

Lock Out Post Mortem FAQ

It looks like we finally have a tentative deal between the NBA and the NBPA.  The terms are sketchy as the deal must be approved by the union members and the owners council.  Both parties also admit that they need to iron out differences on the “b issues” too but the implication is that a deal will be done.  What we do know is that the deal will drop the split in basketball related income from 57% down to 49-51% over the course of the agreement and that the luxury tax is more punitive but that a hard salary cap will not be imposed.  So, what have we learned from all this?  It’s a little premature to make any final conclusions but much of what has happened seemed predictable and I think we can run through FAQ style and address a few of the glaring questions:

Who “won” the negotiations?

Normal people might point out that the relationship between the NBA and NBPA is symbiotic and the notion that one side can crush the other doesn’t totally make sense, as neither side can survive without the other.  That being said, the NBA won in the sense that they knocked down BRI significantly.  The NBA didn’t get the hard cap on salaries it was agitating for but my sense was that this was an extreme position intended to force the players to cave on BRI and luxury taxes and it worked quite well.

Did the recently filed antitrust lawsuits help the NBPA at all?

No.  As seen in the NFL dispute, in a bona fide antitrust suit, the players must demonstrate a true decertification (i.e. that the union is done and will not reform), not to mention causation and damages (i.e. that anti-competitive behavior killed the union and resulting loss).  The NBPA likely could not have proven any of this, since the NBA had set forth its financials proving that the lockout was done to stop losses and even the NBPA conceded that the NBA was suffering losses (but just disagreed on the extent).  No reasonable court or jury would have compelled the NBA to open its doors under such circumstances.  I believe that the lawsuits had the owners pretty nonplussed and, conversely, that the NBPA was pretty relaxed about the NBA lawsuit filed a few months ago as well.

The practical effect, if any, of any of the lawsuits was to allow Billy Hunter/David Stern to broadcast to his constituents that he was “really mad” at the other side and wasn’t going to take it anymore.  The lawsuits then were more valuable in the rally troops sense than in terms of any tangible gains in the negotiations.  I’m sure David Boies and the rest are happy for the cash they were paid to file essentially meaningless complaints.

Will a higher luxury tax do anything?

I don’t know the exact details of the hard cap but the penalties are supposed to be triggered at a lower number than in previous CBAs and the amount of tax is supposed to be higher.  Past history indicates that no matter what the luxury tax threshold is certain teams will always be willing to go over.  I suppose if the tax was ridiculous it would even dissuade Mark Cuban but I presume that we haven’t reached that stage.  You can bank on the fact that certain teams will exceed this new threshold.  I assume the NBA knows this but takes some solace in the fact that a higher luxury tax will redistribute income a little more efficiently to the poorer teams.

What about restricted/semi-restricted free agents?

Not exactly sure but Stern was stating that there would be some measure to allow teams to more effectively retain their own free agents.  I assume there is some quasi-Larry Bird Rule in the offing.

What should the NBPA done in retrospect?

Unless the NBPA was prepared to start its own competing league, they should have taken a deal on the eve of season back in October.  The deal didn’t change much since then and there was no need to sacrifice game checks unless the NBPA had a real backup plan or intended to sit out until they got the terms they wanted (which they rightly weren’t willing to do).  Absent leverage, Billy Hunter had to balance the shortcomings of a deal with the lost money from not playing.  With no better deal in sight, you just take your best option and end this thing (as the NFLPA did).  It was a tough situation for Hunter because the NBA was so vociferous about its position and to concede would’ve made Hunter and the NBPA look weak.  Still, this pride has cost the NBPA 16 games of paychecks that are never coming back.  Pragmatism should have ruled the day.  The best you can say for the NBPA is: (1) they did not let this go on too long as they did in 1998-99 and (2) not matter the system, the NBA will pay the players quite a bit of cash anyway.

What was the funniest/ironic moment of the lockout?

Michael Jordan’s conversion from player to hardliner from the 1998 lockout to the current dispute.  I’m not the first to notice the irony of Jordan yelling at Abe Pollin in 1998 that any owner who can’t make money should sell his team.  MJ circa 2011 has had a change of heart on that one.

What is the toughest thing about being the NBPA President?

The odd thing about being NBPA president is that it is typically given to a veteran older player who is also not a star (Michael Curry, Antoinio Davis) but most vets, like current president Derek Fisher, will be out of the league pretty quickly.  Since 1980, no NBPA president has lasted more than five years (Fisher actually just hit his five-year anniversary) and most of the player immediately become coaches or GMs after retiring, instantly flipping to management.  This reminds of the story when the Nets cut Jack Haley in 1998 and named him an assistant coach.  Haley joked with his former teammates that he now totally disagreed with all their positions in the pending labor dispute.  While the NBPA does have representatives that are permanent in Billy Hunter (though he’ll be gone soon probably) and attorney Jeffrey Kessler, the lack of continuity of the players can create problems.  This is less of a problem now since Fisher has had such a long tenure but he won’t be in the NBA too much longer and the cycle will have to start over again.

Have you had enough watching the NBA’s Greatest Games series?

Yes.  I think I’ve seen Magic and Bird enough, though I did have some fun watching random playoffs games from the 1980s and 1990s.

What have we learned about international basketball?

That it really isn’t a viable option for NBA players on a larger scale.  Between the need to procure insurance and all the local rules, very few NBA players actually could go abroad and make enough guaranteed money to make it worth their while.  Special kudos to Deron Williams for realizing the finite amount of real options and jumping on the best option available (i.e. big money and an NBA opt-out clause).  A few players are also stuck in China for the year with no opt-out clause.  Per ESPN, the list of NBAers in China will be Aaron Brooks, Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Dan Gadzuric, Luther Head, Yi Jianlian (his deal is said to have an NBA out), and Josh Powell.  Unless these NBA players in China are making big money or were desperate for immediate paychecks, they likely would’ve been better off waiting out the lockout.

Are we ready for some frantic free agency?

Yes.  Accelerating an entire off season into less than four weeks will be fun.  It won’t make up for the lost games but at least it’s something.  Let’s play ball.

Who Is Your Most Likely Hall of Famer? (Southeast Division)

Our inquiry into who the next Hall of Famer should be for each franchise now turns to the newish Southeast Division.  The division didn’t exist before 2004-05 and most of its teams didn’t exist before 1988 (Miami and Orlando came into being in 1988 and 1989 respectively and Charlotte in 2004-05).  Still, most of the new teams have surprisingly deep rosters and histories and so we should have some interesting players to look at here.  Before we go to the franchises, our standard of review for this article series can be found here.

1.    Atlanta Hawks: Of all the original NBA teams, the Hawks might be the least connected to their past.  Sure, the Hawks were very good in the 1950s and 1960s but they have moved multiple times.  Yhe Hawks of the early Atlanta Era are primarily remembered for Pete Maravich but they were a competitive group immediately upon arrival to Atlanta in the 1968-79, making the Conference Finals those first two years.  The Hawks didn’t have Maravich yet in either year but were able to win their first round series each time before getting smoked by the Wilt/Jerry West Lakers.  The core of this solid team was Bill Bridges, Lou Hudson, and Zelmo Beaty (who was only a key player in 1968-69 before jumping to the ABA).  Maravich came along in 1970-71 and the Hawks fell to a .500ish team for his tenure in Atlanta (though this was not Maravich’s fault).

In any event, Hudson could be a serious Hall candidate.  He played nearly 900 games in his NBA career and scored 20.2 ppg and had a 17.4 PER.  Hudson was nice scorer at shooting guard/small forward and even maxed out at 25-27 ppg from 1969-70 until 1974-75, though his PER never exceeded 20.3 in a full season.  Still, Hudson was never considered a serious star.  He only received an MVP vote once and made second team All-NBA only once too (but did play in six All-Star games).  In short, he was a very good player but a second-tier star.  When he played with Maravich, there were reports that Hudson resented Maravich’s publicity and Hudson had a point, since he was as good a player and ended up having a much longer NBA career.  As a Hall of Fame candidate, Hudson is pretty borderline but there are worse guys.

Who Is Your Most Likely Hall of Famer? (Central Division)

We now turn to the Central Division in our Hall of Fame segment.  Just as a reminder, we are looking for the next player most likely to make the Hall of Fame for each franchise.  The guidelines, can be found here.  Let’s begin…

1.    Chicago Bulls: Outside of the Michael Jordan Era, the Hall of Fame doesn’t have much in the way of candidates.  As great as the 1990s were, the Bulls franchise has few other highlights.  Currently, Derrick Rose is on the path but needs a lot more time before we actually assess him.  From the pre-MJ days, Artis Gilmore was a great candidate but: (1) he just got in and (2) is, arguably, not best remembered as a Bull (he played equal stints with Kentucky and San Antonio).

Now that Gilmore is off the list, the clear best candidate is Chet Walker.  We noted Walker last time when we looked at the 76er candidates and found him to the best non-Iverson candidate.  Last time, we also noted that we would try to avoid assessing a player as potential Hall of Famer for more than one franchise unless that player was truly Hall worthy for both teams.  In Walker’s case, he played slightly longer for Philly than he did for the Bulls.  Still, Walker was actually better for the Bulls and he really is the best candidate (Walker was in the top ten in win shares each year he played on the Bulls).

Speaking of Walker, his teammates from the 1970s are marginal candidates.  Bob Love was an effective scoring forward and Norm Van Lier a solid guard but neither had PERs over 18 ever and both had relatively short careers.  For a wild card candidate, we have Toni Kukoc.  Kukoc played at an All-Star level from 1994-95 to 1996-97 but no one noticed because the team was so star heavy at the time (Kukoc mostly came off the bench).  If you don’t remember Kukoc, he was hyped as the European Magic Johnson in Croatia before he came over to the United States.  The Bulls (actually GM Jerry Krause) obsessed about pairing him with Jordan to the point that Krause seemed willing to discard better-than-expected Scottie Pippen for Kukoc, which caused periodic rifts between Pippen and the Bulls.

Kukoc hemmed and hawed about coming to the NBA for several years before finally coming over at age-25 in 1993-94, shortly before MJ’s first retirement.  Kukoc soldiered on and was part of three title teams with Jordan.  As mentioned, Kukoc was an All-Star level player during that time.  After Jordan retired, Kukoc spent another eight years as a valuable reserve with Philly, Atlanta, and Milwaukee.  Kukoc was never a Hall of Famer on his NBA accomplishments but if Drazen Petrovic is in, a fellow Euro legend with a nice pro career could make it in too.  Walker is the choice here on all levels but Kukoc is far from a crazy pick.

-Best Non-Hall of Famer in Franchise:  Chet Walker

-Best Eligible Hall of Famer in Franchise:  Chet Walker

-If Springfield Had to Choose One Now:  Chet Walker


Who Is Your Most Likely Hall of Famer? (Atlantic Division)

We just took a month off from writing in hopes that the NBA labor stalemate would move forward while we all thought of other things.  Unfortunately, the world of the NBA present is still stuck in neutral (and possibly even reverse).  On the bright side, we can spend as much time talking about the NBA’s past here as its present.  I thought we could use some our time to take another look at the Hall of Fame.

I know that discussion of the Hall of Fame tends to be a lightning rod.  There are some fans who believe the institution has made the wrong choices and needs fixing and hate the confidential selection process.  There are other fans who are agnostic about the Hall and wonder, for many different reasons, whether there is value to intensely debating which former players gets official recognition for deeds that were accomplished long ago.  I tend to fall into the latter group.  Sure, I don’t think Dennis Johnson was a strong Hall of Famer but he was good and it would’ve been really cool if he had gotten that honor when he was still alive.

Having said all that, I do have my opinions on who belongs in the Hall, though I lack the passion to really worry about it.   Watching the Hall ceremony last month, I did find myself wondering whether Chris Mullin or Dennis Rodman really belonged in the Hall.  I won’t do the analysis now but both certainly have good cases, even if I think there may be better options out there.  In so wondering, it was the “better options” thought that really stuck in my mind.  I wondered, who is the best player, per franchise, not currently in the Hall.  In the next few weeks, we’ll run through this question, by division, starting today with the Atlantic Division.