SF is the most difficult position to assess by far. This is mainly because the position offers a wide range of looks and responsibilities. I’ve zeroed in on some important numbers, though it isn’t like a player needs to hit every benchmark to be considered a strong or weak prospect. As analyst we just need to look at the entire package offered by any prospect and make a decision from there.
- Scoring: At least 18 P40 is expected and the higher the better. For efficiency the number I look at is Adjusted FG pct. and being over .500 seems to be almost a necessity here, the higher the better. It’s never a bad thing if an ability to score from the outside is included.
- Rebounding. This gets a little complicated. A SF prospect doesn’t need to be a great rebounder, but it doesn’t hurt.
- Passing and defense. The number I look at with SFs is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes or ASB40. This numbers gives a good indication of a player’s versatility, which is a more valuable trait for SFs than any other position. Best that this number be over 5.0 and again, the higher the better. An A/TO that drifts below 0.5 too far is also a very bad thing.
The best SFs out there this year are mostly super role players. They’re prospects who do things like defense or passing very well, but are not very impressive scorers. Like a bunch of Luke Waltons and Renaldo Balkmans. Davis Bertans, a foreign player who looks like he’ll be drafted was not included, because I was unable to find stats on him.
Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA: He’s the prototype of the 2011 SF prospect. A good all-around player who is a long way from showing he has the offensive game necessary to make an impact. He has some very impressive numbers though. He’s probably the best passer in this group. He has averaged over 2.0 S40 and B40 in separate seasons. He has shown some promise offensively, but has a long way to go. As a low volume scorer his freshman year, he hit .536 on 2-pointers. That dropped to .438 as a soph when he took more shots and that isn’t a good sign. I have him at the top of this group based on upside. There isn’t a lot of potential greatness in this group. It is a long shot, but Honeycutt has a chance to be a pretty valuable player if he can add some offense to his game. That could also be said of Saunders, Parsons, Butler and James, but Honeycutt has an edge because he’s a couple of years younger and has no weaknesses other than his poor offensive game. Because he has flashed some potential as a 3-point shooter, he has the potential to become a Bruce Bowen type.
Jan Vesely, KK Partizan: I am not particularly adept in grading the foreign players. It’s a rare case that I’ve watched them play and the only tool I have is whatever stats I can find. Vesely has some pretty impressive numbers. His 2-point pct has been consistently good, often well over 60%. This is very impressive, though it would be more impressive if he scored at a higher rate. As a 3-point shooter he’s a little shaky, but has shown some promise. He seems fairly active defensively, as his blocks and steals numbers have always been decent. He also appears to be a decent passer. Even though he’s 6’11, he’s a poor rebounder even for a SF, so I couldn’t imagine him playing PF. He has some serious offensive potential, but still seems a long way off and at 6’11 240, I wonder about his quickness.