Monta Ellis and PT Examined

A lot has been made in the NBA stat analysis community that Monta Ellis is a bit overrated.  Ellis’ rate states are quite gaudy.  He has 25.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, and 4.2 rpg.  On the other side, Ellis is playing 41.5 mpg and has a rather pedestrian 16.9 PER based on his mediocre shooting, mediocre free throw rate (compared to touches), below-average three point shooting (.327%), and his high turnover rate (3.6 TOs per-36 minutes).   Of course it takes a degree of talent to play 41.5 mpg to begin with but you can put me firmly in the camp of those who believe Ellis to be a decent player. 

What interests me about Ellis, however, is not the debate of his worth but how he is absorbing minutes like a sponge.  Ellis is currently second in the NBA in mpg behind Gerald Wallace, who is playing 42 mpg.  What should we be expecting from our NBA players?  Well, 42 mpg is a lot for an NBA players.  There are currently 100 players who have logged a season of 42 mpg or more (minimum of 60 games played).  Going back to the beginning, logging tons of minutes was a 1960s concept. Here is a distribution of the 42 MPG club by decade:

Ty Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge Revisited

These two players will always be linked and compared. They play the same position, came into the league through the same draft and were dealt for each other the night of that draft. While Aldridge was chosen before Thomas, most stat guys like me felt Thomas had the much better future at the time. This was my bottom line opinions of the two players going into the draft: 

Thomas: The draft is weak, but I believe Tyrus Thomas is the best player available and the one player who has the best chance to become a perennial all-star. 

Aldridge: But right now Aldridge is just a good college player who isn’t producing enough on the court that I’d consider him a good NBA prospect. Right now he looks like a player who will spend his career backing up at PF and center around the league.

Quick Thoughts From Orlando-Cleveland Showdown

As the first half winds down, we were treated to the two best teams in the NBA matching up in Cleveland last night.  Here are some observations from the game: 

-This has been true for a while now but LeBron James is clearly the best player in the NBA (and probably the world).  Despite some early shooting issues, he controlled this game on all levels and then killed the Magic in the last few minutes off the dribble or the pass.  LBJ’s numbers are basically in line with 2007-08 and 2008-09 so far.  The one difference is that James has steadily been raising his rate of three point shots and accuracy over the last three years too.  James’ current effective FG% is .553%, which would be a career best.  He is also shooting threes at a career best rate (.362%).  The scary thing is that James could plausibly raise his three-point percentage. 

NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update

Right now I would rank the 2010 class as below-average. The potential at this point would rank somewhere between weak and slightly above-average at this point. I could see as many as 9 impact players in this group. But none is a sure thing and if they all come up short, as is the case more often than not, it will be a very weak draft. The strength of this draft will be the forwards, be they power, combo or small. They’re a strong group that could get stronger if some emerging players keep their current pace. The perimeter players are a weak group. There’s no depth at PG behind Wall. There are a few intriguing SGs behind Turner, but most are the usual upperclassmen suspects. 

These rankings are for at this point in the season and should be considered fluid. Think of these rankings like a marathon at the 15-mile mark. There is a group of 4 packed tightly at the front. DeMarcus Cousins has a slight lead and will probably toss a forearm shiver at anyone who tries to pass him. Wall had an early lead, but the others have caught him. Now they’re wondering if he has another sprint in him. The 3 others are surprised to find Turner running with them, but the longer he keeps up, the more obvious it is that he belongs. Aldrich could win the race by default if the top 4 all fade. Greg Monroe has found his stride. I think you get the idea. What I’m trying to say with this stupid marathon metaphor is don’t consider these anything close to a final ranking.

Transactions: 12/13-2/2

Atlanta Hawks 

1/5    Waived Othello Hunter

1/12   Signed Mario West to a 10-day contract

1/22   Signed Mario West to a  second 10-day contract

2/1     Signed Mario West for the rest of the season 

West hasn’t done much this season for the Hawks to remedy their short bench but he is a good athlete and a local guy.  The Hawks have also used West to fill out the bench the last few years too.  West’s stats in college and in the pros show no indication that he’s really pro level (his career high in college is only 5.2 ppg).  Atlanta can likely get a little more upside in its bench but is content with a name they know.

Franchise Best Non-All-Stars

Last time, we looked at some the best players players never to make an All-Star game.  At the request of friend of the site and overall nice guy Aitan Spring, we are going to take a look at each team’s best player never to make an All-Star game. A few guidelines for our review:

-We choose players based upon their accomplishment solely with one franchise. For example, Rod Strickland is possibly the best non-All-Star ever but he had several cameos for franchises where he wasn’t great, which don’t count in my book.

-If the player made an All-Star ever even if with another team, he is exempted from this list. This may seem a bit inconsistent with the first guideline but the fact that a player ever made the All-Star game changes things to me. A future (or past) All-Star appearance takes the sting off–that same sting which we’re trying to capture here.

-If the choices are close, we will weight our pick more towards players with longer tenures with the franchise. This seems more appropriate for what we are looking for.