NBA Preview 2009-10: Northwest Division

1.    Portland Trailblazers:    Most people agree that the Blazers are loaded with talent and that they are the likely up-and-coming team of the next decade.  What there is some disagreement about  is how quickly Portland will arrive and how high they will ascend.  The Blazers looked quite good look last year.  They won 54 games and had the expected record of a 56-win team.  In terms of how they did it, the Blazers had the slowest pace in the NBA last year but also had the most efficient offense behind Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Travis Outlaw.  In fact, virtually none of the top rotation players shot poorly.  Portland’s top seven offensive players all had effective field goal percentages above .528% and Aldridge was solid at .486% as well. 

Defensively, the Blazers do have some room improve.  They were a decent 13th overall but one could certainly envision that a healthy and presumably improving Greg Oden might be able to positively effect that facet of the team.  This also seem like a good point to stop and see where Oden is in his development.  He was clearly more raw than other great centers were as rookies.  But Oden was only 21 and showed some promise in his rate stats.  So, let’s see what the other centers were doing at a similar age:

NBA Preview 2009-10: Southwest Divsion

Last year, the Southwest Division was, by far, the deepest division in the NBA, with four of the five teams winning at least 49 games.  This year, the division should still be deep but not quite so.  Moreover, all four playoff teams are at some key points.  Dallas and San Antonio are trying to squeeze another run out of veteran cores, Houston is hoping to overcome injuries to stay competitive, and New Orleans has the best player in the division and is teetering on the edge of playoff participant and bona fide contender.  Should be interesting to watch… 

1.    San Antonio Spurs:    The numbers and the performance have shown the Spurs to be a team in decline the last two seasons.  In particular, the Spurs have have had some slippage defensively.  After a great defensive year in 2003-04 (94.1) the defensive has declined each season:

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NBA Preview 2009-10: Southeast Division

SEDivision

The Southeast is an interesting new fangled division.  Since the NBA switched to a three-division format, the Southeast has been the shallowest in terms of talent.  While they have had some nice teams (2004-06 Heat and the 2008-09 Magic), the rest of the teams in the division have varied from middling to bad.  2008-09, however, was the first year that the division managed to have three teams over .500.  The division should be even a little better this year as Washington will be improved and Charlotte actually has an outside shot at the playoffs.  Let’s take a look:

1.    Orlando Magic: The absolute cream of the division and co-favorite for the Eastern Conference title.  The Magic melded a unique style of taking a ton of threes (almost double their opponents) and a bunch of free throws on offense with a stifling defense (best in the NBA by efficiency numbers).  Obviously, Dwight Howard is the best player on the team and the focal point for everything they do and is only 24 years old to boot.  Throw in a core of pretty young players (Jameer Nelson is 27 and Rashard Lewis is 30) and Vince Carter (an upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu) and there is little reason why the Magic can’t at least stay at last year’s level as a team.  In fact, the 2008-09 run was no fluke.  Really, the Magic have been pretty formidable team for two years running.  The 2007-08 version won 52 games but had the expected won-loss record of a 56-win team and was actually better offensively than last year’s model. 

NBA Preview 2009-10: Central Division

Turning to the Central, we see the same pattern we saw in the Atlantic.  One title contender (Cleveland) and a whole bunch of maybes.  While the Central doesn’t look like it will have any truly horrible teams it also has plenty of also-rans.  The also-rans are varying degrees of interesting from very (Chicago) to not so much (Milwaukee).  Let’s see how it all shakes out: 

1.    Cleveland Cavaliers:    By most accounts, the Cavs seemed to be the best team in 2008-09.  They had the most wins, the best expected won-loss record, and the best player in the NBA.  Alas, things fell apart against Orlando when Dwight Howard dominated them enough to knock off a 66-win team.  The Cavs are back with substantially the same team, with the exception Shaquille O’Neal, who they hope can annoy Howard enough to slightly negate this edge.  Going forward, the Cavs look to be in great shape.  LeBron James is still the best player in the NBA and the only older players on the roster are Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who will be splitting time at center. 

NBA Preview 2009-10: Atlantic Division

We’re only weeks away from another exciting NBA season.  We thought this would be a good time to get going with a division-by-division preview and see what we have to expect.  Sure, predictions are fraught with issues.  Facts (and rosters) will change between now and April 2010, which will render some of what we see moot (think Billups, Chauncey and Detroit Pistons last year) but doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to chew up what we have so far.  As a fun bonus, we’ll give you our All-Decade starting line up for each franchise.  Today, we’ll start out with the Atlantic Division: