Transactions: 11/22-12/5 (Coaching Change Edition)

Oklahoma City Thunder 

11/22    Fire P.J. Carlesimo and name Scott Brooks interim head coach 

Not much has happened in the NBA on the transaction front the last few weeks except for a good old fashioned coaching dump off.  In each of the three cases of coach firings, the terminations do not seem to be no-brainers.  All three teams have played poorly, compared to even modest expectations.  Yet there are clear mitigating factors in each instance.  Starting with P.J., we know the knock…the team wasn’t winning and they were afraid that Kevin Durant was not developing.  In terms of the youngsters, both Jeff Green and Durant actually look a bit better than last year so far.  The real problem was blow out losses all over the place.  Of course, it’s not clear how the Thunder can hope to win with the current roster.  When a team accumulates cap room and youngsters, it generally loses a lot and badly.  The Sonics are a bad defensive team (24th in defensive efficiency) and a horrible offensive team (last in offensive efficiency) to boot.  While I’m not a huge Carlesimo fan, Phil Jackson or Red Auerbach would stink coaching this team too.  As for Brooks, he was a heady player but we have no idea how he’ll be ultimately as a coach.  In the short term, it seems like he’ll be in the exact same boat as Carlesimo, taking lumps with chance for modest improvement near the end of the year.  While Thunder management doesn’t really have to worry about being fair to its coaches, this job is rigged for failure in the short term and any deck shuffling is only meant to distract the fans.

Quick Thoughts

1.    Morrow Time!:    The interesting news of this weekend was undrafted rookie Anthony Morrow’s 37-point outburst against the Clippers.  Morrow, a 6’5 shooting guard out of Georgia Tech, shot 15-20 from the field (4-5 from three) and even grabbed 11 rebounds.  There wasn’t much in Morrow’s college stats to indicate that he was a regular NBA player (14.3 ppg on 46% shooting as a senior) but Don Nelson does seem to have a knack for developing young offensive players against the mainstream.  Morrow’s 37 points are the most points by an undrafted rookie in the modern era, breaking Marquis Daniel’s 34-points from 2003-04 (Daniels was another Nellie find).  That got me wondering a couple of things: (1) how many unheralded young players have broken in under Nellie? and (2) who is the best undrafted player ever?

Transactions 9/11-11/12

Boston Celtics 

9/29    Re-sign Sam Cassell 

It’s pretty amazing how quickly a player can lose it.  Cassell was perfectly useful for the Clippers last year (12.8 ppg, .455 FG%, 4.7 apg in 25.7 mpg), only to offer pretty much zero for the Celts (7.6 ppg, .385 FG%, 2.1 apg in 17.6 mpg) and was even worse in the playoffs (4.5 ppg, .333 FG%, 1.2 apg, in 12.6 apg).  Now, the limited role on Boston obviously had a lot to do with Cassell’s precipitous drop but at some point when you fall so hard, you have to think the career is over.  Even so, Boston was willing to give him one more contract just to ride out the good feelings from last year’s playoff run.

NBA Preview 2008-09: Projected Records

This season I predicted the records a little differently. I still used the same process of taking production from the previous 2 seasons and adjusting for things like age and circumstance. The difference is I gave myself more latitude to change records that just looked wrong. I did this because things can change during the season. Last year two trades, one silly the other sensible, changed the balance of power in the West. So while the Cavs may not be as strong as the Pistons and Celtics right now, logic dictates they’re going to use some expiring contracts to make a move to improve and I adjusted their projected record to reflect such. I also tried to factor in things like coaching situations, teams coming off surprising/disappointing seasons and just a general gut feeling I have about each team. So while Chicago finished quite well after the numbers were run, questions about their chemistry compelled me to drop their win total. Likewise Miami’s thin roster had them winning 36 games in this system, but the assumption that such glaring weaknesses would be addressed during the season made the decision to up their total wins easy.

NBA Preview 2008-09: Western Conference

The Western Conference powers have been gradually shifting.  The old powers seem to be fading but still dangerous and the new power brokers that emerged in the 2007-08 playoffs look pretty significant too.  I happen to agree with the opinion put out by David Stern and others that the West has regressed a bit against the East.  No longer are the best teams clearly in the West.  In fact, the tough teams are getting more evenly distributed as the Detroit/Boston duo is as tough as any two teams out West.  Top to bottom, however, the West is still better.  In the end, believe that NBA title will come back to the West.  Let’s take a look… 

NBA Preview 2008-09: Eastern Conference

This felt like one of the quicker off seasons we’ve had and now all of sudden a new NBA season is upon us.  What has changed in these four months since the Celtics beat the Lakers?  Not too much really.  There haven’t been too many changes in roster, Elton Brand being the notable exception.  The real change is in time.  How have four months changed the teams?  Are the Celtics too old to be prohibitive favorites?  Are the Pistons crumbling?  Is LeBron at his peak?  Really, the East boils down to Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Orlando.  Boston and Detroit are the favorites and the other three have an outside hope of surprising.  Most everyone else, is on fringes of a first round exit and the lottery.  Let’s take a look at how the divisions should shake out…