A Closer Look At Eric Murdock

Two of the biggest stories basketball stories of the last two months are the firing Mike Rice at Rutgers for abuse and the recent commitment of newest high school basketball prodigy Andrew Wiggins to Kansas.   While these stories seemingly have little common ground, old school NBA enthusiasts will recognize 1980s and 1990s players figured in both stories (Eric Murdock and Mitchell Wiggins).

The man behind the Mike Rice story is former point guard Eric Murdock.  Murdock was director of player development at Rutgers and apparently was a whistle blower in giving over videotapes of Rice screaming homophobic slurs at the players, shoving players, and throwing balls at the players.  Today, we’ll look at Murdock and his interesting (from a stats guys perspective) career.

Murdock played point guard for Providence from 1987-91.  Providence wasn’t particularly good at that time (19-13 and 7-9 in the Big East in 1990-91) but Murdock was great as a senior (25.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, and 3.5 spg).  The Jazz drafted Murdock 21^st in the 1991 draft and he was a solid backup behind John Stockton for 10 mpg in 1991-92 (13.6 PER).  Jerry Sloan lost confidence in Murdock late in the season and Sloan barely played him in the playoffs.  In the playoffs, Murdock played 11 total minutes, despite the fact that the Jazz would go to the Conference Finals (this was fewer minutes than even fellow rookie Corey Crowder and bench fixture Bob Thornton).

After the season, the Jazz traded Murdock and Blue Edwards (a competent swingman) to Milwaukee for Jay Humphries (a 30-year old starting point guard who had a 16.5 PER) and Larry Krystkowiak a hustling but undersized power forward.  In short, the Jazz dumped Murdock, a player with potential, to have role players who wouldn’t make mistakes while they played with Stockton and Karl Malone.

The 1992-93 Bucks were bad (28-54) but Murdock took the starting job and put up really impressive numbers (14.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 spg, 19.3 PER).  The Bucks regressed in 1993-94 to 20-62 but Murdock held onto the starting job and played even better (15.3 ppg, 6.7 apg, 3.2 rpg, 2.4 spg, 20.3 PER).  Murdock’s minutes were identical both years but he made a big jump in threes (from .261% to .411%) that propelled him over 20 PER.

After the season, the Bucks’ drafted Glenn Robinson overall and now had a team of Murdock, an emerging Vin Baker, and Robinson going into 1994-95.  At 26 in 1994-95, Murdock’s career appeared to be heading straight upwards and now was on the brink of being a very good player.  In fact, Murdock was fourth in point guards in PER (behind Mark Price, Stockton, and Kevin Johnson, and ahead of Rod Strickland, Mookie Blaylock, and Gary Payton among others).  Had Murdock put up these numbers in the present day, the advanced stats community would have seen him as one of the more underrated players in the NBA.

Murdock suffered an eye injury in the 1994 pre-season and struggled a bit and fell to 13.0 ppg, 6.4 apg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 spg, and 17.3 PER.  The big drop off was in shooting (from .468% to .415%) and it seemed that if he could bounce back to more normal shooting levels he would continue to excel.  The unreported story at the time was that Murdock lost minutes to Lee Mayberry (who started 50 games at the point).  Mayberry was slightly younger than Murdock and was a player with few major weakness but no great strengths.   Mayberry was a decent passer and defender but could score or create free throws at all.  Mayberry’s 1994-95 numbers (5.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 1.0 rpg, and 9.9 PER 21.3 mpg) should not have convinced the Bucks that he was a viable alternative to Murdock.  That coach Mike Dunleavy was playing Mayberry so much was (and is still is) a little bewildering.

Nevertheless, the addition of Robinson to Baker and Murdock improved the Bucks to 34-48 and gave reason for optimism in 1995-96.   Leaving camp in 1995-96, despite all the evidence to the contrary, Dunleavy decided the Mayberry should be starting at the point.  Murdock, for his part, did not step up to the challenge and put up a 10.4 PER in 20 mpg for 9 games.  Murdock shot 36% and the team went 3-6 over that stretch.

It is not clear if the Bucks’ were annoyed with Murdock or just wanted a center but Dunleavy then traded flipped Murdock and Eric Mobley to the expansion Vancouver Grizzlies for languid big man Benoit Benjamin (who was at the time average at best).  Murdock’s value had plummeted from underrated top ten point guard to chit in a trade for remains of Benjamin (who Vancouver had gotten for free in the expansion draft).

Murdock played 64 games as a backup to Greg Anthony in Vancouver and put up 9.1 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.4 rpg, 2.0 spg, and a 16.2 PER in 23.1 MPG.  Not a bad performance but the Grizz were so bad that Murdock had now reached confirmed journeyman status.   Murdock signed with Denver to back up Mark Jackson in 1996-97 but was cut after 12 games (despite an 18.1 per in 10 mpg) and went over to Europe for the rest of the season.

In 1997-98, Pat Riley and the Heat signed Murdock to back up Tim Hardaway.  Murdock was basically the same player he had been in Vancouver and the end of his time in Milwaukee.  He put up a 15.7 PER in 17 mpg and reestablished himself as an NBA player for the moment.  Murdock spent the next two years as a backup point guard in New Jersey and with the Clippers but his shot had declined enough that he only put up PER in the 12.5 range those two years.  He did not play in the NBA again after his 1999-00 season with the Clippers.  While guys like Mitchell Butler, Anthony Goldwire, Kevin Ollie, Mike James, and Derek Fisher lasted forever in the NBA as back up guards, Murdock was done in the NBA at age 31.  Murdock spent some time in the minors and Europe before giving up playing in or around 2003 (it’s a little hard to find the Euro stats to know when exactly he stopped playing).

I hadn’t really thought about Murdock much since the late 1990s until I saw he had leaked the tape of Rice acting like a total jerk.  The question has become now whether Murdock was a good Samaritan, opportunist, or something in between.  Murdock did not release the tape until after the school let him go and he is apparently pursuing a wrongful termination suit, so the argument could be made that Murdock’s motives are less than pure.  On the other hand, Basketball-Reference indicates that Murdock made over $11 million in his NBA career and, if he was careful financially, he probably wouldn’t need the headache of a lawsuit unless he really felt wronged.  Nor is there any record of Murdock being anything other than a good pro.

I’m not casting judgments either way, but Murdock’s dispute with Rutgers can easily be spun as pure or unsavory.  In either case, it’s hard to feel too bad for Rutgers for allowing Rice to go on with his idiotic coaching methods.

As for Murdock, he may be in the media vortex now for the Rice situation but whenever I hear his name, I only wonder: (a) how he could’ve gone from 25-yearold with a 20.3 PER to cut by a lottery team in three years and (b) why Dunleavy thought Mayberry was anywhere near as good player.

I wondered if another young guard has ever fallen so quickly so fast without injury issues.   Since 1979-80, I couldn’t find another guard with a PER of 20 or over fall out of regular playing time without injuries (T.J. Ford put up 20 PER at age 24 but had spinal issues).  As far as I can tell, Murdock should’ve enjoyed a Mookie Blaylock-type career but nothing but bad luck had him out of the NBA way too quickly.

NBA Draft: Michael Carter-Williams

Carter-Willams as a prospect is the opposite of the other top PG prospect this year, Trey Burke. Burke is 6’0”, which is small even by PG standards. Carter-Williams is tall for a PG, listed at 6’6”. Burke is a good offensive player who is limited defensively.  Carter-Williams is dominant defensively and erratic on offense. Burke could probably step right in and play decent NBA PG right now, but has little upside because of his size and weak defense. Carter-Williams is very much a developmental project, but his upside is much higher than Burke’s. When the two squared off in the national semifinal Burke’s Wolverines won, but both players had their worst games of the tournament.

Carter-Williams had his issues with scoring efficiency this year, but he also posted some very impressive numbers in defense and passing. He finished with an 8.3 A40 and a 9.1 RSB40. These are totals few players have ever put together in the same season. Here’s a look at other NCAA major college PGs who posted an A40 over 8.0 along with an RSB40 over 9.0:

Payton’s numbers were posted in his senior season, Tinsley’s his junior, Miller’s his sophomore. This is some pretty fast company Carter-Williams finds himself with. We have a couple of top 10 all-time PGs.  Also there’s Andre Miller, who is still going strong at 36 and Jamaal Tinsley, a solid player who the league just doesn’t know how to quit. Even if I were to lower the standard to 8.0 RSB40 along with the 8.0 A40, the players added to the list—Rod Strickland, Randy Brown, Ray Felton, Kenny Anderson, Brevin Knight, Greg Anthony and Pooh Richardson—are all players who went on to long NBA careers.

The good thing for Carter-Williams here is all PGs who have shown the ability to pass and defend this well, have had some level of long-term NBA success regardless of how impressive or poor their offensive numbers were.  Tinsley, Brown, Felton, Knight and Richardson all fell short of the .500 2-point percentage benchmark in college ball, but still went on to long careers because of their extraordinary defense/passing combination.  To repeat, any player who posted 8+ A40 and RSB40 in a season playing for a major college has gone on to play a long NBA career. That Carter-Williams is part of this club makes him an excellent long term NBA prospect.

This isn’t to say his inefficient scoring isn’t a problem. Carter-Williams scored only 13.5 P40 with percentages of .441 and .297. Those are very poor prospect numbers. No team wants to use a lottery pick on the next Randy Brown or Brevin Knight. Likewise no team wants to draft a player who will sit on their bench for 3 years then watch him develop into a star elsewhere. Here are the numbers of a couple of other big PGs in their sophomore seasons who developed their games significantly in subsequent years:

Both Payton and Billups were better scorers at this point in their careers and Carter-Williams has yet to show consistent 3-point ability. I post this comp not to suggest that Carter-Williams is a future HOFer just waiting to bust out, though that is a far high end possibility. But it is important to know that players aren’t always complete as college sophs and there is a history of big PGs developing their games quite a bit after their sophomore seasons.

Another thing to note is that Carter-Williams’ scoring skills are probably a little better than they appear in the cumulative stats. Here are his monthly breakdowns from this year compared with his freshman year:

His freshman season was only 269 minutes, the majority of which were logged in November and December when the schedule is always easier. He also topped 8.0 A40 and 9.0 RSB40 as a freshman, which is impressive. There was a lot of variance during his sophomore year. He started off as a dominator, before a brutal shooting slump in January really brought his efficiency down. The good part here is that he adjusted and improved his efficiency from both inside and outside the arc during the season. A 2-point percentage in the 47-48% range in February and March, when the schedule is much more difficult isn’t a huge negative. That he improved while maintaining solid passing and defensive numbers is actually pretty impressive. The bad part is even at his best the P40 remained low.

In Michael Carter-Williams we have a player who is almost certain to have a long NBA career based on his stats. His raw skills give him an outside chance to eventually become one of the top PGs in the league and a perennial all-star, which is something that can be said about only a few prospects each year. That makes him an intriguing prospect. Right now his arc is somewhere between journeyman and perennial all-star.  Because I generally prefer upside in prospects I would have to rank him as the top PG available in the 2013 draft. The only reason to draft Trey Burke ahead of him would be if it were for a team that absolutely needed immediate help at PG and the draft was the only place they could fill this need.

That isn’t to say there’s no risk in drafting such a player. Any team taking Carter-Williams has to realize that he’s a developmental pick with who won’t have much immediate impact and may never reach his full potential. I certainly understand why a team would pass on such a player. In 1997 the Celtics drafted future great PG Chauncey Billups with the 3^rd overall pick. Billups was traded in February of his rookie year for veteran Kenny Anderson who gave the Celtics 3 so-so years. That’s not much of a payoff for the 3^rd overall pick. Billups’ early career is why, despite the upside, drafting Michael Carter-Williams too high in the lottery could become a similar draft day disaster.

Achieve Success in Basketball through Poker

The third time’s a charm as Miami Heat star player LeBron James took home his third Kia NBA Most Valuable Player Award in May of this year. James became the first player since Michael Jordan to win three consecutive MVP trophies. Including 85 first-place votes, he totaled 1,074 points from a panel of 121 voters that were made up of American and Canadian sportswriters, broadcasters and fan votes from NBA.com.

In order to achieve success in basketball or any sports, professional athletes must possess tough psychological attributes. Sport psychologists believe that peak performance requires not only physical ability but also psychological skills. Did you know that by spending 30 minutes of playing Partypoker online you could improve your psychological skills necessary to achieve success in your desired sport? Athletes possess good physical abilities and incredible mental toughness in order to defeat their opponents. By playing poker, you’re able to develop your focus and determination through a game that you enjoy playing.

According to licensed psychologist and avid poker player Dr. Stephen Bloomfield, poker is a competition in which stress and your responses to stress can make you successful in sport. Whether you’re a novice or a professional poker player joining the 2013 WPT Lucky Hearts Open in Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Hollywood, having tough mental skills allows you to handle stress and remain focused on the competition, as well as dealing with various distractions during the game. In basketball, players are exposed to personal fouls involving a player saying offensive things to distract his opponent. By playing poker, you develop a sense of concentration that allows you to maintain focused and resist external variables.

Aside from focus, another important psychological attribute you must develop is determination. With determination, all realistic personal goals can be attained such as grabbing the next championship title or making more rebounds than in your previous games. In poker, players are highly committed to win either by having the best hand or by bluffing their way to win the next big pot. By setting realistic long-term and short-term goals, you can achieve greater heights in poker, basketball, or any sport in which you participate.

Successful basketball players and professional athletes engage themselves in various brain training activities to strengthen their psychological attributes. If you learn how to manage your attention and to establish achievable goals, then you’re one step closer to becoming the next Most Valuable Player in NBA.

Bowie/Jordan, A Look Back

Is Sam Bowie a tragic figure?  Traditional lore paints him either as: (a) they guy who was taken over Michael Jordan and who crapped out or (b) the guy who overcome crippling injuries to become a pretty good center.  With the recent Bowie article and documentary on ESPN, the focus has returned to Bowie.  I haven’t seen the documentary but the article lets out a revelation that Bowie knew of potential leg problems in his pre-draft physical with the Blazers but did not disclose the pain he felt.   Aside from Bowie’s physical with Portland and some details of his childhood, the article provide much in the way of some the other details of his career.  Let’s go a little deeper and see if we can find a few more interesting factoids and fill in a few holes:

Bowie was an old draft pick and his rookie numbers were only okay

While many more players lasted all four years back in the early 1980s, Bowie, was already 23 his rookie season (and turned 24 in March of his rookie year) because he redshirted two years with a broken leg.  Bowie missed one year with a cast and when that didn’t work, he had a bone graft from his hip to help fix the leg, causing him to miss yet another season.  Injuries aside, one would expect a 23-year old to be pretty close to fully formed as a player.  Both Patrick Ewing and Ralph Sampson were also 23-year old rookies but they looked like much more promising prospects as rookies.  Take a look at rookie stats of all three:

-Bowie: 29.2 mpg, 10.0 ppg, .537 FG%, 8.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.7 bpg, 15.7 PER

-Ewing: 35.4 mpg, 20.0 ppg, .474 FG%, 9.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.1 bpg, 3.5 topg, 17.4 PER

-Sampson: 32.8 mpg, 21.0 ppg, .523 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.4 bpg, 3.6 topg, 20.1 PER

Continue reading Bowie/Jordan, A Look Back…

ROTY Watch

This year I’m going to start an occasional look at the top candidates for Rookie-of-the-year. While it’s kind of silly to start projecting the outcome of such awards in November, it might help me with the draft previews to keep a closer look at the rookies. Also everyone else is doing such lists so Hoopsanalyst may as well join the fray.

The 2013 class so far is playing out as expected, though some individuals have surprised me. Davis is showing great promise. Behind him there are a mix of surprises and disappointments, but no other player who looks like a surefire star just yet. They remain an intriguing group that should be fun to watch develop. To be sure it’s very early. One thing I’m fairly certain of is there’s a rookie languishing on a bench somewhere who will step in and become a big contributor fairly soon.

1. Anthony Davis. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is the rookie with the best long term future and remains the top bet for ROTY. He missed some time with a concussion, but the early numbers suggest Davis is everything we thought he was. He’s 5^th in the league in blocks, a place he should hold onto or improve. He’s one of the top per minute scorer among rookies. He’s the top rebounding rookie. The concussion may have him behind Lillard in the “if the ROTY were awarded today based on stats so far” lists, but Davis remains by far the best long term prospect and the top bet for the award.
2. Damian Lillard, Portland: Lillard leads all rookies in PPG and minutes per game. Those are the most important stats for a ROTY candidate. Because there isn’t another legit PG on the Blazers roster, it seems likely he’ll continue to get 38 minutes per game and continue to pour in points. This makes him a legit threat to Davis for ROTY. I believed it was a mistake to hand an NBA PG job to guy player who just a year ago had been a high-scoring small college combo guard whose passing skills were moderate at best. Early returns suggest I’ll be eating crow, or crowfu as I’m a vegan, on this opinion. His passing still has a ways to go, but Lillard is clearly an NBA scorer who has helped make the Blazers a borderline playoff contender. That Lillard has settled in so quickly and effectively is a testament to his smarts and ability.
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte: He’s one of the best players on a team that’s looking like one of the league’s best stories for 2013 and that will mean something when the awards are handed out. Charlotte has a winning record after 7 games, following a year they set the record for lowest winning percentage. It’s early for both the team and the player. The Bobcat’s roster still has a talent deficit problem. Kidd-Gilchrist seems unlikely to rack up the scoring totals necessary to win the award. But should the Bobcats keep this up and sneak into the playoffs, some voters may be willing to appreciate the all-around contributions Kidd-Gilchrist brought to such an effort
4. Dion Waiters, Cleveland: His start has featured flashes of greatness, but also some games where he shot 3-16 or 5-15. His game against the Clippers was one of the best performances by a rookie so far this year. He’s a scorer on a team that needs points, so it’s no stretch at all to see him as a 20+ PPG guy based on his college stats and early returns. But if the games with inefficient shooting pile up, he could find himself on the bench more often. Right now he could go either way.
5. Harrison Barnes, Golden State: He had been invisible until the last couple of games when he led the team scoring in a couple of badly needed Warrior wins. If such performances become commonplace, he’ll get into the discussion. I’m still leery of Barnes as a long term force in the league. He will score points on occasion, but the rest of his game remains weak. He’s still posting the weak defense and passing numbers that marked his time at North Carolina.
6. Andre Drummond, Detroit: So far he’s been impressive. In only 15 minutes per game he’s hitting 70% of his shots and is rebounding at a much higher rate than he did at UConn last year. It looks like they’re taking things slowly with Drummond. While that will cost him a shot at the ROTY, it’s probably a good thing for his long term development. Long term his future looks much better than it did on draft day. This is a case where getting out of college and into the pros was clearly the best thing for the player.
7. Bradley Beal, Washington: A very slow start. Beal has hit 31% of his 2-pointers and the Wizards are winless. He should get this right, or at least improve on it. He’ll find himself on the bench if he doesn’t. As the 3^rd overall pick, he’ll get more of a chance to get it right than most.
8. Maurice Harkless and Andrew Nicholson, Orlando: The Magic are eventually going to look to the future and will want to get a feel for whether or not their 2013 rookies are going to be part of their future. Both have shown some promise in limited minutes and should get more time.
9. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto: He’s in a similar situation to Drummond. That’s a young center destined to spend the year getting low minutes with an eye on the future. He doesn’t have the eye-popping numbers that Drummond has posted, but he’s been OK.
10. Jae Crowder, Dallas: Crowder has put in some nice minutes as a Maverick reserve. His time could be trimmed once Nowitzki returns. Whether the minutes continue or not, Crowder looks like he can be an effective rotation player.

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