NBA Draft 2013: Top 60 or so Prospects as of 12/31

by Ed Weiland

At this point I like the 2013 draft. There are a lot of promising players, which is a welcome development following two very dry drafts. That makes this year much more fun for us draft geeks. The problem is there isn’t any one player who looks like a sure fire star. While the drafts of 2011 and 2012 were historically weak, at least there was Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. No such star has emerged as the class of the 2013 crop. There are enough good prospects out there, that I suspect a few will emerge and this won’t be a problem in April. It should be fun watching this group develop.

The 2013 class features what looks like a deep freshmen class, several promising sophs and some juniors and seniors off to good starts. It’s the freshmen and sophomores who are the players to watch though. Such players are the core of any good draft in this millennium. For that reason I’m placing those prospects at the top of the list for now, based on their upside. It is still early in the process and for that reason rather than doing an official numbered in order by prospectworthiness top 60, I’m starting by placing prospects in groups.

As I like to stress every year, most stats are inflated at this point in the season. With that in mind feel free to insert terms like: “so far”, “at this point in the season” and “until the rigorous conference schedule kills his numbers” at the end of every blurb. Because of this, these ratings are extremely fluid and will certainly change a lot when I do them again in a month.

Top 10 of 2013

These are the players that stand out as the best prospects in the nation right now. The situation is very fluid, but right now these 10 rank a notch above everyone else. Any one of these players could go either way at this point.

Nerlens Noel, C Kentucky: He’s been a monster defensively and that’s such a big deal for a center that I have to make him the top overall guy. He’s also been a surprisingly good passer. Offensively he has a ways to go, but has shown some signs. Now the conference schedule starts and the test will be whether or not Noel can improve the offense and keep his rebounding level up or if he’ll fall off the cliff as some rookie bigs do. Noel is young, even for a freshman. He won’t be 19 until after the tournament. My thinking in ranking him as the top guy is we have a player who has the potential to become another Kevin Garnett. Such a player has to be considered at or near the top of any draft.

Michael Carter-Williams, PG Syracuse: Dominant passer and defender. His offense is shaky. One thing to point out though is that most of the inefficiency in his offense is from behind the arc. That’s something that can be corrected fairly easily. Either he attempts fewer 3-pointers or gets better at hitting them. I doubt he’ll ever be a great offensive player, but he’s so dominating at passing and defense that I could see him becoming an excellent NBA player.

Kyle Anderson, SF UCLA: This one will come as something of a shock to most. It follows a trend of going with players who are dominating on defense. The thing to remember is that defensive skills tend to be more inate, while offensive skills are much easier to develop. That’s why I rate young players who are dominant defensively so much higher than ones who don’t. Anderson got off to a slow start offensively. He’s still weak in that area, but has hit well over .500 on 2-pointers in his last 10 games so I’m going to go optimistic on him for now. What I love about Anderson is his complete game. He passes like a PG and rebounds like a PF while putting up solid defensive numbers. I’m guessing he’ll improve dramatically as the season progresses.

Alex Len, C Maryland: Good center prospect. Len is a sophomore in his first full college season. He’s young for a soph, so the fact that his play has been superior to most of the hyped frosh centers is significant.

Otto Porter, SF Georgetown: Has a chance to surpass Otto Moore as the greatest Otto ever. Otto Graham, who teamed with Red Holtzman and Chuck “Rifleman” Connors to win the 1946 NBL championship before switching sports and becoming a legendary NFL QB, probably has a case too. Back to Porter, he does everything well and that’s a good sign for a SF prospect. The fact that he doesn’t score many points can probably be blamed on the Georgetown offense, but it is a concern.

Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV: Offensively he’s been a monster. Defensively he’s been good enough.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky: He just might be the 2^nd best freshman center in the nation. Unfortunately, he’s playing behind the top one. He has been very good when he gets on the court and his game has improved since the season started. He might just break out in 2013.

Cody Zeller, PF-C Indiana:  I have been down on Zeller, but he isn’t a terrible prospect. Offensively he’s great and his rebounding is improved as he enters what should be a brutal Big 10 schedule. The fact that he looks like he’ll be able to play some PF gives him a big advantage on most center prospects.

Tony Mitchell, North Texas: Mitchell is in danger of becoming one of those guys who is over-rated because everyone talked about how under-rated he was for so long. Mitchell is recovering from a slow start and is getting back to the form that had him #2 in my 2012 rankings. He seems to be over the shooting struggles he had in November. Through that he’s remained solid on the boards and defensively. While he takes too many 3-pointers, the fact that he can hit well over 30% of them adds to his value.

Steven Adams, C Pitt: Other than the Kentucky duo, Adams is the only freshman center who has stepped in and played like a center prospect should.

Foreign Phenoms

Rudy Gobert, C France: He’s big and long. His stats show a potentially dominating inside scorer, a decent shot blocker and a poor rebounder.

Lucas Noguiera, C Brazil: He doesn’t have the crazy length of Gobert, but his numbers are equally impressive right down to the poor rebounding. Other than these two I haven’t identified any other impressive foreign prospects yet.

Next 10 Freshmen and Sophomores

I rank this group of freshmen and sophomores just a notch below the top guys. All are good players. Some will crash the top group in the next rankings, other will fall out.

Briante Weber, PG VCU: I’m not quite sure where to rank Weber, but his numbers are so damn impressive that I like his lottery chances a lot. He’s a sophomore who is one of many role players in the balanced VCU system. His numbers really jump out. His steals are an obscene 6.2 per 40 minutes. Seriously, that’s the highest rate I’ve ever seen by a long shot. Considering he posted a 4.6 last year in 674 minutes, I doubt the 6.2 is much of a fluke. His passing numbers are superior to most of the top PG prospects. As a scorer he has a ways to go in both efficiency and volume. Right now he’s something of a super sleeper as a prospect. Because he’s a soph who isn’t on the draft radar of anyone that I’ve seen, he may not even enter the draft until 2015. But few players have displayed the type of dominance that Weber has early in his career and that puts him very much in the top prospects discussion.

Brice Johnson, F North Carolina: Very impressive start. He’s easily the top Tar Heel prospect. Biggest issue I can see is he’s too thin, at less than 200 lbs. He has PF numbers, so he needs to put on some weight. By some I mean 40-50 lbs. He’s young, so it’s doable. The unknown is what effect the gain will have.

Ben McLemore, SG Kansas: McLemore has become something of a trendy top 5 pick. He’s been good, but I’m not quite ready to go that far on him. My main issue with him is he’s a SG. With SGs, unless they’re dominant players, I don’t see the point in burning a top pick on that position. Usable SGs are fairly cheap and plentiful.

Jordan Adams, SG UCLA: The new Pauley can’t have been an easy place to play in the early going this year. There’s been a lot of off-court drama and a lot of talented new players trying to fit in. Adams has been rock solid during the chaos, scoring often and efficiently while putting up solid numbers across the board.

BJ Young, G Arkansas: Young has been more of a distributor this year, raising the possibility that his future is at the point. His efficiency and defensive numbers are down. The drop in efficiency can be traced to 3-point shooting and is probably the result of a cold streak that will end. The low defensive numbers follow a trend that started last year and are a legitimate concern.

Trey Burke, PG Michigan: I may go off stathead message on Burke, at least for now. He has low defensive numbers and I always rank such players low. But as a scorer and passer he has been so good that I see no reason he couldn’t have a career that’s similar to or even surpasses what Darren Collison has done so far.

Marcus Smart, PG Oklahoma State: Very erratic start, but he shows some signs of being a dominant player. He might also be another Jamon Gordon.

Shawn Long, PF Louisiana-Lafayette: Long enrolled at Mississippi State as a freshman last year, but never played. He transferred to ULL and is off to a terrific start in his first NCAA action. Shawn Long is definitely a player to keep an eye on.

Eric Moreland, PF Oregon State: Looking at the raw numbers, Moreland looks like a terrific PF prospect. He’s hitting 65% of his 2-pointers and is at 15.5 R40 and 5.0 SB40. I do have some doubts though. First is OSU has really been pushing the pace this year, so those numbers are certain to come down some when I do pace adjustments. He’ll still look pretty good, but they might be something less than eye-popping. The other thing is I watched an OSU game where Moreland was replaced late in the game for defensive purposes. The announcer said it was because he wasn’t a good on-ball defender. I evaluate by statistics and Moreland’s are pretty impressive so far. But I realize they don’t tell the entire story. As with the rest of these players, we still have 20 or so games to see how this plays out. If Eric Moreland really is a poor defender, it will eventually be reflected in the numbers.

Archie Goodwin, SG Kentucky: I’m not sold on Goodwin as a great prospect, but it’s hard to dismiss him. While he hasn’t dominated in any one area, he has been good enough as a freshman to think his high end future is a starting NBA SG.

So far, so Good

These are juniors and seniors who have stepped up their games so far to the point that they could be lottery picks should they continue on their current pace. It’s always good to be wary of such improvement in juniors and seniors, which is why I keep them separate from the freshmen and sophomores in this early ranking.

Jordan Bachynski, C Arizona State: Probably the most impressive start of any junior or senior. It’s also so far above his career norms that I can’t imagine him keeping it up. He plays low minutes and is 23 years old which are both negatives. But he’s also 7’2”, is hitting 64% of his FG attempts and blocking 7.4 shots per 40 minutes while rebounding adequately. That says he’s an NBA center.

Fuquan Edwin, SG Seton Hall: Player to watch. Edwin posted a .539 2-point pct. along with an 11.5 RSB40 while playing 3^rd banana behind seniors Jordan Theodore and Herb Pope last year. He’s getting a chance to star as a junior and has taken full advantage. It will be no surprise at all if he makes the jump into the lottery in the next edition of these rankings.

Jeff Withey, C Kansas: He’s blocking shots as effectively as ever. His rebounding and offense have improved. Key will be keeping that pace during the conference schedule.

Jack Cooley, PF Notre Dame: A solid senior whose numbers have gone up across the board.

CJ McCallum, G Lehigh: He’s having his best ever scoring year and continues to put up solid defensive numbers. His 3-pointer has been falling at over 50%, a huge deal for him since shooting had been a weakness.

Elias Harris, F Gonzaga: One of the more interesting stories in the 2013 draft class. Harris had been on radar for 3 years now, but has never really put it all together. As a senior he’s improved his passing and defense to the point where he has to be in the first round discussion. It isn’t easy for a player to improve on defense like Harris has. The fact that he’s doing it bodes well for his pro prospects.

Victor Oladipo, SG Indiana: Off to an incredible start. His 2-point pct is over 70% in the early going and his defensive numbers are great. He’s also seeing his 3-pointer fall consistently for the first time in his career.

Reggie Bullock, SF North Carolina: The former top 20 prospect might finally be breaking out.

Carrick Felix, G-F Arizona State: After an ordinary couple of years, this guy is killing it so far for the Sun Devils. He’s similar to Oladipo. Both are terrific defenders who are scoring at a level well above previous levels. Both might be undersized SFs. Both seem to lack the scorer’s mentality that has historically been important for great SGs. They’re a couple players here putting up great numbers, but I’m not sure what to do yet other than mention them here and see what transpires the rest of the year.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG Georgia: Junior who is having his best year.

Jamaal Franklin, SG San Diego State: He’s been kind of erratic and remains so. But he is very talented and has improved a lot.

James Southerland, SF Syracuse: He’s getting big minutes for the first time in his career as a senior and has really taken advantage. I have my doubts about him keeping this pace up, because his efficiency numbers are so much above his career averages.

Overhyped

These are players who well regarded but are posting numbers more consistent with draft busts than successes. I limited this to prospects who find themselves listed in the lottery in the mocks around the web.

Isaiah Austin, PF-C Baylor: He just isn’t much of a defender. It’s hard to call any big guy is much of a prospect if he doesn’t bring some defensive skills.

Shabazz Muhammad, SF UCLA: High volume scorer with few other skills. As we saw with Derrick Williams and Harrison Barnes, such players usually struggle in the pros. Every now and then they’ll toss out an impressive performance that will tantalize fans. But generally such players don’t make good pros. 

Alex Poythress, SF Kentucky: See Muhammad comment. I would rank Muhammad a little higher than Poythress, because of the UCLA effect on the numbers of perimeter players during the Howland era.

James Michael McAdoo, F North Carolina: It’s kind of unfortunate that he was so quickly ushered into the top 5 of the mocks this summer after an uninspiring freshman season. He’s done little to justify the hype and is already starting to fade. Probably best for him to stay out of the spotlight for a year and work on his game.

Mason Plumlee, C Duke: He’s a good inside scorer and rebounder, but his defensive numbers are still too low. This has been a career-long problem for him, so I doubt he’s going to fix it any time soon. The 2013 draft looks to be deep with decent center prospects, so there’s no need to burn a lottery pick on a likely career reserve like Plumlee. Another important note is that he’ll be 23 at tournament time. He isn’t a 5^th-year senior, but he is older than most seniors and that makes anything he does this season a tad less impressive.

The Best of the Rest in the 2013 Draft Class

Gorgui Dieng, C Lousiville: Dieng has made some nice improvements in his game. He’s scoring more efficiently and turning the ball over a lot less. In fact passing would have to be considered a strength of his. His biggest strength and the skill that will get him drafted is defense. Negative is he’ll be 23 in a couple of weeks, making him a couple of years older than most juniors.

Andre Roberson, F Colorado: One of the nation’s best rebounders stuck in a SF’s body. I had expected a breakout year for him as a scorer, but he’s still 4^th on a balanced Buffalo team in scoring. Other than scoring frequency, all the numbers look terrific. He’s a great defender who can hit the 3-pointer.

Adam Woodbury, C Iowa: As a group the freshmen centers haven’t been all that special. Woodbury has been better than most. I mean if you compare him and Isaiah Austin, Woodbury rebounds and blocks shots at a much higher rate and hits a slightly higher percentage of 2-pointers. These are the things that matter for center prospects. The only thing Austin has done better is hit the 3-pointer.

Rakim Christmas, PF Syracuse: Christmas has been playing in a crowded front court, but has put up some solid numbers in limited minutes. I’d like him a lot more if he grabbed more rebounds.

Brandon Davies, PF BYU: One of many several veteran college PFs who has come in with an improved game. Davies is young for a senior, which makes him more of a prospect than say a Jackie Carmichael or Richard Howell.

Robert Covington, F Tennessee State: Last year I thought he was a legit 1^st-rounder coming off a great junior year. This year he struggled early before surgery to repair a torn meniscus has him on the shelf until February. Obviously this is bad news for a guy who may have been the best small college prospect in the country going into the season. Hopefully he can finish strong and get himself noticed in the combines.

Keith Clanton, PF Central Florida: Classic stretch 4 prospect. Clanton has 3-point range to go with marginally acceptable defense and rebounding skills.

Doug McDermott, SF Creighton: He has the same problem that lands Muhammad and Poythress in with the overhyped crowd, poor defensive numbers. His offense is so incredibly good that I can’t believe he won’t find NBA minutes in a Steve Novak-type role. But that’s his high end.

Sean Kirkpatrick, SG Cincinnati: My biggest concern is that he’s a forward in a guard’s body. He is off to a terrific start though. We’ll see where he goes with it.

Cory Jefferson, PF Baylor: 4^th-year junior is taking advantage of his first significant minutes. At 210 he’s thin for an NBA PF, but his numbers have been terrific. It’s a nice change to see a Baylor big man playing some defense.

John Brown, F High Point: A freshman off to a good start. He’s a good scorer and rebounder. His defensive numbers are great. He isn’t much of a passer yet.

Jamelle Hagins, PF Delaware: I don’t see that he’s on the level of a Millsap or Faried. I do think his rebounding and defense are impressive enough that he’s worth 2^nd round look.

DJ Seeley, G CS-Fullerton: Fifth-year senior who has been lighting it up and playing defense better than ever.

Lorenzo Brown, PG North Carolina State: Brown has continued the solid defender/adequate passer/erratic scorer game with a slight uptick in his numbers this year.

Nate Wolters, G South Dakota State: As we’re seeing with Damian Lillard this year, high scoring, small college guards with mediocre passing numbers can make for good NBA PGs. Lillard was the exception of course and his success doesn’t mean every small college PG can make the jump to the NBA. But it does mean such players should be looked at more closely.

Mike Muscala, C Bucknell: A good, multi-skilled center. I’m watching what could be his coming out party against Missouri as I write this.

Nick Johnson, G Arizona: He doesn’t pass enough to be a PG and doesn’t score enough for a SG. He does have great defensive numbers and has scored very efficiently.

Mitch McGary, C-PF Michigan: He looks more like a center than a PF, but he’s listed as a PF so I’ll buy in at least for now. He’s hit over 60% of his shots and has been a great rebounder. He hasn’t shown much in the way of defense and that keeps him down here with the dregs of the draftworthy prospects.

Arselan Kazemi, PF Oregon: Interesting prospect, but like a lot of players I’m not sure exactly where he fits. He’s top 10 in the nation in both steals and rebounds. That’s good, but a PF should block more shots than he does. I guess I’d place him roughly in the same class with Hagins and Carmichael. That’s a PF who can probably help a team inside, but is very unlikely to become an NBA starter.

Pierre Jackson, PG Baylor: Jackson is solid, but unspectacular. I feel he’s good enough to be an NBA backup PG.

Maurice Kemp, SF East Carolina: Common story. Anonymous player starts kicking ass as a senior.

James Ennis, G-F Long Beach State: See Maurice Kemp comment.

Brenden Dawson, F Michigan State: A nice all-around player who would help his cause immensely if he added an outside shot.

Jackie Carmichael, PF Illinois State: A senior who just turned 23, Carmichael is a marginal prospect thanks to his strong rebounding and defensive skills.

Lawrence Bowers, F Missouri: A 5^th-year senior who is taking advantage of his final opportunity. He isn’t a great prospect, but has shown some signs of being a useful stretch 4.

Evan Roquemore, PG Santa Clara: Playing well enough to get a mention. Roquemore has made a big jump so far this year, so the burning question will be whether he maintains this new pace or reverts back to his first couple of seasons and the sub-.400 FG pct.

Isaiah Armwood, PF George Washington: Armwood spent a couple of uninspiring years at Villanova before transferring. He’s playing better now, with defense being the strength. As a 4^th-year junior with a transfer on his resume, Armwood has a lot to prove. He’s off to a good start.

Trevor Mbakwe, PF Minnesota: He’ll be 24 in January and has had trouble avoiding the long arm of the law during his career. Those are a couple of big negatives. As a prospect his numbers have been consistently good and he appears to have the ability to become a decent inside reserve in the NBA. I don’t like to get into character issues much. I’m not close enough to these situations to have any idea what the issues are and what, if any, affect they’ll have on team chemistry. I do know that such baggage is not a good thing for any prospect to be lugging along during the evaluation process. In a year that looks to be deep in PF prospects, such baggage won’t help his cause.

Baye Keita, C Syracuse: Junior center. He’s been an efficient scoring, poor rebounding shot blocker until this year. This year he’s a better rebounder to the point that he has to be taken seriously as a prospect. His problem has been getting minutes. Syracuse is so loaded with talent that Keita has had trouble getting on the court.

NBA Draft 2013: Sniper/Defenders

by Ed Weiland

It’s still early in the draft process and rather than rank the players, I like to let things play out at least through December. Two months is enough time for hot streaks will fade and cold starts to heat up and we’ll just have a more accurate view of what exactly is here in the class of 2013. I’ll start with the rankings in a couple of weeks. In the meantime I wanted to stay somewhat engaged by looking at recent draft success stories and try to determine if there would be any similar stories in 2013. I’ve already looked at Kenneth Faried and Chandler Parsons. Next on the list is Spurs SG Danny Green.

Green has been averaging close to 30 minutes per game for a Spurs team that is currently among the best in the league. He’s hitting the 3-pointer at a 37% clip, averaging 10 PPG and providing stellar perimeter defense. Basically he’s successfully filling the Bruce Bowen role on the Spurs. The NBA is quite a leap for Green who spent his college career as the 4^th option at North Carolina behind Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington. It’s rare that players who are the 4^th leading scorer on their college teams as seniors make any impact in the NBA. Green brought solid numbers to be sure. As a senior he shot .517 on 2-pointers and .418 on 3-pointers. He scored 17.6 P40 with an RSB40 of 10.5 and an A/TO of 1.7. He looked like a solid prospect, except for the 17.6 P40. Senior SGs who score below 20.0 P40 rarely make an impact in the NBA. This has been one of the most consistent rules for prospects over the past couple of decades. This has been the case regardless of how stellar the other numbers are.

Green was in a unique situation at North Carolina though. He was already playing the Bowen role on a college team of future 1^st rounders. The problem there is most NBA role players, even Bruce Bowen, were stars in college. What should have been apparent with Green is that he was proficient at every skill necessary to become a Bowen-type of player. As his numbers suggested, his defense was stellar, he could hit the 3-pointer, and he didn’t commit many turnovers. Most important he showed a willingness to step back and play an important role on a great team rather than trying to become a star.

Few teams attract the mother lode of talent North Carolina does, so few teams would ever have such a talented player as the #4 option. It’s also extremely rare for a group as talented as the 2009 Tar Heels to have played together for 3 seasons like they did. Because Green’s situation was so rare, I doubt there will be too many similar situations to his. In looking for the next Danny Green, I looked for players who could both hit the 3-pointer and put up good defensive stats. The Sniper/Defenders I’ll call them. This is the type of player that works extremely well next to a superstar. Such a player does the heavy lifting on defense and stays out of the way on offense, except when he’s need to drain a 3-pointer. I found 11 such players who have been toiling somewhat anonymously and could become draft bargains as sniper/defenders.

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	RSB40	S40	A/TO
Fuquan Edwin	545	560	25.9	11.7	3.5	1.1
Briante Weber	500	389	12.2	13.4	6.2	3.5
Bernard Thompson	557	383	19.5	10.3	4.2	0.9
DJ Seeley	615	379	24.5	8.8	3.2	1.3
Derrick Marks	474	412	24.3	8.2	3.2	1.3
Ramon Galloway	471	435	21.6	9.0	3.0	1.5
Austin Hollins	466	321	14.6	9.0	3.2	2.1
Jordan Swing	508	475	20.7	9.7	1.9	1.3
Kevin Foster	474	333	23.7	7.0	4.1	1.6
Robert Crawford	467	492	21.7	9.5	2.2	1.1
Charles Carmouche	520	258	15.7	9.2	3.8	1.7

Fuquan Edwin, Seton Hall: This piece is meant to focus on somewhat anonymous players who might be bargains in 2013 or a future draft as sniper/defenders. Edwin would have fit that description coming into the 2013 season. If he continues to play like he has so far, Edwin won’t be anonymous for long. He’ll be a top 10 draftee. He has been scoring often and efficiently from inside and outside. He’s corrected his passing weakness and has continued to play solid defense. Definitely a player to watch once the conference schedules start.

Briante Weber, VCU: According to the team’s website, Weber recorded a steal in 7% of his team’s defensive possessions as a freshman in 2012, which was the highest figure since 2003. His steals are way up this year, to an eye-popping 6.4 S40 so he’s probably ahead of that pace. He’s also an extremely low turnover guy. That’s the good part. Weber doesn’t score much or attempt many shots, but has improved his efficiency a lot so far as a soph. His .389 on 3-pointers is for only 18 attempts. He hit only .250 last year, so he has a long ways to go as a scorer. Another negative is he’s very slight, at 6’2” 165. But a player this good on defense with such freakish athleticism is better called sinewy than skinny. VCU’s havoc style of play keeps minutes low and makes it difficult for any player to stand out, but Weber has the type of dominant stats that suggest he has an NBA future. It might take a little more time and development to figure out exactly what type of future that is. He is also flashing some serious potential as an NBA PG.

Bernard Thompson, Florida Gulf Coast: Another sinewy soph who has stepped up his game nicely. Thompson is a more accomplished scorer than Weber. He has good defensive numbers so far, but because they’re up so much from his freshman year, I’d like to see him maintain this level for a while before I call him a solid defender. Same goes for his early proficiency with the 2-pointer. He also needs to get to turnovers down. Right now he’s a young player with some work to do who has flashed enough that he merits watching.

DJ Seeley, Cal State-Fullerton: Like a lot of players that follow, Seeley seems to have found a groove after an up-and-down career that included a transfer. After two seasons of minimal impact at Cal, he ended up at Fullerton and became their top scorer. He was something of a mad bomber last year and that has continued in his senior year. But he’s also upped his steals a lot, improved his 2-point pct. and is passing the ball better. At this point he might be better considered a combo than a SG. He’s a 23 year-old 5^th-year senior and those guys should always be analyzed with caution.

Derrick Marks, Boise State: Marks has led the Broncos to a surprising start in his sophomore year. His offense is erratic, but he does get a lot of steals and has some potential as a gunner. He has shown some good skills, but has a ways to go. Right now he’s nothing more than a name to keep in mind for the draft of ’14 or ’15.

Ramon Galloway, LaSalle: A senior with a transfer (South Carolina) in his past, Galloway is having his best year. He’s a terrific shooter, hitting .435 this year after a .442 mark in 2012. His defensive numbers have improved also. Right now he’s a player who followed up 3 ordinary seasons with a great start to his final year. As is the case with Seeley, I’m leery of any player who breaks out as a senior. But such players can’t be ignored.

Austin Hollins, Minnesota: Hollins is in a situation that’s somewhat similar to Danny Green’s. He’s on one of the top teams in the country and is playing a Bowen-type of role. Now the Gophers of 2013 are just a team that has the potential to land a top 2 or 3 seed, but are only a marginal championship contender and nowhere near the team the ’09 Tar Heels were. What I like about Hollins is he’s a strong defense/low turnover player. His offense has been too inefficient to consider him much of a pro prospect. If he can get back to last year from behind the arc, when he hit 37%, he’ll look much better as a potential NBA sniper/defender.

Jordan Swing, UAB: A 4^th-year junior who is a year away from dreaded 5^th-year senior status. He has posted across the board improvement so far this year. He doesn’t have the dominant S40 number most of the others have, but 1.9 is still pretty solid. Like the other listed here, his future depends on whether he can maintain and build on what has been a great start.

Kevin Foster, Santa Clara: Another mad bomber, who is also a 5^th-year senior. This is the first year Foster has posted an S40 anywhere near this dominant, so it should be taken with a grain of sea salt until he maintains it into February. His biggest issue has been inefficient scoring from all over the court. His 3-point percentage is down to .333 after a career high of .386 last year. He’ll need a repeat of the .386 and to maintain the high S40 to get a call on draft day.

Robert Crawford, Central Arkansas: A 5^th-year senior, Crawford missed a couple seasons along the way and only logged 499 minutes total of NCAA court time coming into this season. I’m having trouble finding out what his story is, because Google searches are muddled by some annoying Australian poet with the same name. I did find that he played some JUCO ball. He’s off to a great start in his final season. That’s good, but he has a lot to prove and a short time to do it.

Charles Carmouche, LSU: A 5^th-year senior playing at his 3^rd school. He’s never been a high volume scorer and this year is no different. He isn’t a case like Danny Green, whose skills were obscured by a talented roster. Carmouche has struggled to stand out on ordinary teams while attending New Orleans, Memphis and now LSU. For that reason he’s beyond a long shot to make the NBA. What he has going for him is a career of solid defensive numbers and a decent ability to hit a 3-pointer.

NBA Draft 2013: Well Rounded SFs

by Ed Weiland

The emergence of Chandler Parsons as a solid, multi-skilled NBA SF and a Most Improved Player candidate for 2013 is something of an anomaly. Parsons, in only his 2^nd NBA season, is currently a top 3 player on a decent Rockets team. He’s among the team leaders in minutes, points, rebounds and assists. The reason his success is something of a surprise is Parsons was a role player in college, never finishing as higher than the 3^rd leading scorer during 4 seasons on what was always a pretty ordinary Florida team. SF prospects that don’t score much in college generally face a tough NBA road, regardless of their other stats. The only player to buck this trend was Andre Iguodala who came into the NBA off a sophomore year with a talented Arizona team. Because the best player on any college team is also almost always the leading scorer, prospects tend to score a lot of points.

The number I generally look for is 18 points per 40 minutes. That seems to be the safe number for SF prospects who hit all the other benchmarks. While Chandler was a solid all-around player, he never scored much in college. Here are some other recent major college players who fit the same profile of low volume scorers with a strong all-around game.

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40
Chandler Parsons	549	368	13.3	9.1	6.0
Damian Saunders	530	357	14.8	9.3	8.9
Geoff McDermott	476	206	10.4	10.8	7.3
Terrence Williams	459	385	14.5	9.9	9.4
Damian Johnson	528	263	14.9	6.4	8.4
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute	515	333	11.3	10.2	6.0
Julian Wright	562	261	16.9	11.0	6.0

For those who don’t know, ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. I use it in evaluating SFs, because it’s a good indicator of how well-rounded a game the player brings. Anything above 6.0 is considered exceptional. None of the others had the success Parsons seems to be headed for. The only other player to find a niche is Mbah a Moute, a solid role player for the Bucks, but hardly the core player Parsons is looking like. Williams and Wright were both first round busts. The others were ignored on draft day, even though it’s hard to say Parsons was a better prospect by simply comparing their college stats. Where Parsons tops the group is scoring efficiency. It isn’t by much, but he and Saunders were the only two players who were efficient scorers from both inside the arc and out.

So as I did with Kenneth Faried last week, I wanted to scour the 2013 college forward crop for the next potential Chandler Parsons. I didn’t find too many anonymous players, but did find some SFs who are low-volume scorers with a diverse set of skills that are worth an early mention. Players are listed in order of how they rank as prospects at this very early point of the 2013 draft analysis.

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40
Otto Porter	538	438	16.1	8.5	9.1
Kyle Anderson	404	100	10.1	11.2	8.2
Andre Roberson	507	333	14.0	13.8	6.9
Sam Dekker	548	394	18.2	6.0	5.5
Rodney Williams	594	286	18.3	8.5	6.4
Mike Moser	469	176	16.2	12.3	6.6
Branden Dawson	610	0	15.6	8.3	7.5
Chris Udofia	525	222	15.1	6.9	8.9
Ian Hummer	538	125	18.2	7.4	9.0
Milton Jennings	560	526	17.7	8.0	6.9

Otto Porter, Georgetown: Porter has been too good to be an anonymous prospect like Parsons was 2 years ago, but he does fit the low-volume scorer/multi-skilled SF profile well. Plus he’s a damn exciting player with a great future and those guys are just fun to speculate about, so I’m including him here. Porter’s numbers are up across the board from his promising freshman year. Especially impressive is his 3-pointer falling at a .438 clip. He’s probably a better scorer than he has shown, because the Hoya offense tends to encourage balanced scoring and suppress individual stats. Should Porter keep this pace up and enter the draft this spring, he’ll be a lottery pick.

Kyle Anderson, UCLA: Highly-touted freshman whose offense has been abysmal in the early going. His non-scoring skills have been so stellar that he’s something of a point PF. He rebounds like a PF, passes like a PG, but unfortunately scores as efficiently as stats geek might were he ever permitted to suit up. Anderson is still very young and I have to think his scoring will improve. If it improves enough he’s a potential dominator. Anderson is ranked 2^nd overall on this list because of his upside, but his offense has a long way to go.

Andre Roberson, Colorado: One of the best rebounders in the country, but at 6’7 210 he’s more the size of an SF. I had expected him to step up more as a scorer this year, but so far his offense has been similar to what it was his first couple of years. Even with the weak scoring, I like him as a prospect. He does defense and rebounding as well as any SF in the nation. His offense and passing have shown improvement. While he has some work to do, he’s the type of player I’d be happy to land late in round one with the hope he’d develop.

Sam Dekker, Wisconsin: Another freshman who is off to an impressive start. He has the same stat problem as Porter in that he plays in an offense that encourages balanced scoring and also suppresses stats with a slow pace. For that reason it wouldn’t be at all out of line to up his per 40 minutes numbers by 10%. He’s also a freshman early in his career, meaning he could go either way at this point. Upside has him this high. We’ll see where he goes with it.

Rodney Williams, Minnesota: Williams is a senior having his best year. He has his P40 above the magic 18.0 for the first time in his career. That combined with his already stellar all-around numbers makes him a decent prospect in my book. The best thing he could do for his career now is start hitting the 3-pointer at a better rate.

Mike Moser, UNLV: Unfortunately his career has been full of speed bumps. He left UCLA after his freshman year and sat out a year before busting out at UNLV last year. This year however, a slow start has him behind super rookie Anthony Bennett in the Rebel pecking order and he’s looking at a month on the shelf with a dislocated elbow. He’s a 22 year-old junior who has one full year of college ball, so the clock isn’t working in his favor. Like Roberson, he’s SF size with PF numbers. His rebounding/defensive numbers are terrific, but his offense is shaky.

Branden Dawson, Michigan State: Another good player on a balance-scoring team. Dawson is just a soph who looks more like a PF right now. If he can pull the same trick former Spartan Draymond Green did and develop a decent 3-point shot, he’ll improve his draft stock by the time he’s a senior. It would also help if he would refine his passing game to resemble Green’s.

Chris Udofia, Denver: Udofia is one of those players with such an odd size/stats mix that it is hard to get a handle on him as a prospect. He’s SG size, at 6’6” 200. He blocks shots better than most big men, but is a below-average rebounder for a SF. He’s an efficient scorer inside the arc, but can’t hit a 3-pointer consistently and remains something of a low-volume scorer at least for a prospect. He’s an excellent passer. Udofia is still just a junior and may be able to put everything together before he’s done. Right now he’s a good college player with a size/skills package that just doesn’t translate into a good NBA prospect.

Ian Hummer, Princeton: He’s a good passer/defender and that’s always a nice combination for a SF prospect. His offense remains weak as he hasn’t built on the promise he showed as a junior. Also working against Hummer is he’s a small college player and they generally need to be more dominant than he’s been. Hummer is good enough to be worth a mention, but is still a long shot.

Milton Jennings, Clemson: Jennings is a senior who was somewhat anonymous until this year when his early play has upped his game across the board just enough to get noticed. He has PF size, at 6’9” 225 if not PF numbers. Because his offense has been inefficient until this year I have my doubts he can continue the pace he’s on. Should he keep this pace up, Milton Jennings and the rest of the players listed here might find the NBA more welcoming thanks to the success of Chandler Parsons.

Are there any Farieds in the 2013 Draft Class?

by Ed Weiland

Kenneth Faried was the find of the historically weak 2011 draft. He went from Morehead State to starting PF for the Nuggets. In his second year he’s top 10 in the league in rebounds, rebounding pct, and FG pct. His dunks have become must see You Tube viewing. While I can’t say we’ll look back in 20 years and consider Kenneth Faried the best player to come out of the 2011 draft, he is the early leader in career win shares.

Faried isn’t alone in having been a bargain as a small college PF. A trend in the NBA draft over the past 30 years is small college power forwards have been a heck of a bargain. Here’s a look at some small college and mid-major PFs that were draft bargains going back to 1980. The redraft column gives an idea of where each player would have gone had there been a redraft based on career production. The number reflects where each player ranks in his draft class in career win shares. The redraft number probably isn’t completely accurate in each case. That’s not important though. The point is that all these players were wildly undervalued going into the draft.

Year	Player	College	Drafted	Redraft
1980	Larry Smith	Alcorn State	24	5
1980	Kurt Rambis	Santa Clara	58	6
1981	Frank Brickowski	Penn State	57	15
1985	Karl Malone	Louisiana Tech	13	1
1986	Dennis Rodman	SE Oklahoma St	27	2
1988	Anthony Mason	Tennessee St	53	2
1990	Anthony Davis	UTEP	45	5
1992	PJ Brown	Louisiana Tech	29	3
1992	Popeye Jones	Murray St	41	19
1996	Ben Wallace	Virginia Union	n/a	5
1996	Malik Rose	Drexel	44	17
2007	Paul Millsap	Louisiana Tech	47	3
2011	Kenneth Faried	Morehead State	22	1

I kept this to small and mid-major colleges. Penn State competed in the Atlantic 10 before joining the Big 10 in 1990, so Brickowski qualifies. Not all small college PFs were bargains over this time either. Bill Garnett, Tellis Frank, Randy White, Carlos Rogers and Gary Trent were all small college PFs drafted in the top half of round one and none experienced much NBA success.  In the case of top 10 picks Charles Oakley and Vin Baker, the experts got it right. Jason Thompson is another recent draftee worth a mention. He was drafted 12^th in the deep 2008 draft. It was probably a tad high in retrospect, but he was hardly a bust.

I can’t say why there was an 11-year gap in such occurrences between 1996 and 2007. The off the top of my head theory would be that the major colleges became better at identifying talent and players previously destined for small colleges were recruited by the majors. Another theory is the influx of foreign pushed such players out of the draft completely. It was also a time of players heading straight to the pros from high school, but I can’t see where this would have been a factor.

Millsap and Faried have started this trend all over again and it makes sense for me to keep an eye out for such players. I look for players who are ridiculously effective rebounders, score at an efficient rate and get a lot of steals and blocks. Because I’m focusing on small college players here, similar players like Jack Cooley and Arselan Kazemi aren’t included. I also omitted Tony Mitchell of North Texas, because he’s known quantity, already likely to be drafted in the top 10. I was looking at players who are toiling somewhat anonymously. The list below shows a group of some small college PFs flashing some NBA potential early in the season. Players are commented on in loose order of what I would consider their prospect ranking at this early stage.

Player	2PP	P40	R40	SB40
OD Anosike	577	14.6	14.2	2.1
Jamelle Hagins	606	15.8	16.3	3.8
Jordan Reves	526	12.9	14.4	3.9
Michael Kessens	580	17.1	15.0	4.9
Ed Daniel	558	21.1	15.5	5.7
TaShawn Thomas	515	21.0	13.6	4.0
Jordan Clarke	600	16.8	13.6	3.1
Jyles Smith	250	3.1	11.9	7.3
Michale Kyser	419	8.4	9.8	6.8

TaShawn Thomas, Houston: I’m not sure if Houston, competing in Conference USA, qualifies as a mid-major or not. I do know that Thomas is a pretty impressive young prospect. I liked him a lot as a freshman last year and he has picked up where he left off. Scoring is his weakness, but he’s only a sophomore.

Jamelle Hagins, Delaware: He’s the most likely player in this group to be wearing an NBA uniform next year. He’s a senior with a solid history of production coming into 2013. If he can keep his 2PP over or near .600, it would be huge for him, as scoring efficiency has been the weak spot in his game. His numbers so far in 2013 have been posted against one of the tougher early schedules in the country, so I don’t expect him to fade too much as the season progresses.

Jordan Reves, Texas-Arlington: Reves is a senior who is getting 30+ minutes per game for the first time in his career. His first 3 seasons featured terrific per minute numbers in rebounds, steals and blocks. He’s also been a solid scorer, with a 2PP well over .500 every year. His court time had been limited by foul trouble. So far he has corrected that problem this season.

Ed Daniel, Murray State: Similar to Reves in that he’s a senior coming off 3 reasonably productive, but foul-prone seasons. So far he has the fouling under control and is seeing more court time because of it. His rebounding has been up and down during his career. So far in the 2013 season he’s been an excellent boarder and he’ll need to keep that up.

Jordan Clarke, Drake: A 5^th-year senior who is like the rest of the crowd here. His first 3 years were marked by solid production. He played limited minutes because of a propensity for fouling. As a senior he’s been kicking butt and fouling less. His NBA chances will hinge on whether or not he can keep it up. Unlike some of the others his defensive strength is he’s more of a ball hawk than a shot blocker. That’s not a good thing, but not a fatal flaw either. The 5^th-year senior thing is also a hindrance to his chances.

Jyles Smith, Savannah St: His .250 2PP is an early season anomaly. His career number is around .500 and it should be there or better by season’s end. Smith is a junior who has struggled with fouls and that hasn’t been corrected. He’s where Reves and Daniel were a year ago. A very capable PF who needs to cut down the fouls.

Michael Kessens, Longwood: Longwood freshman PF who is off to a great start. Way early for him. He could go either way at this point, but seems unlikely to enter the 2013 draft. Small college players rarely enter the draft early, so probably best make Kessens a player to watch for 2016, unless he really busts out.

OD Anosike, Siena: Good PF name and a great rebounder. Unfortunately his defensive numbers haven’t added up over his career. If he can fix that in this, his senior season, he’ll be drafted. I’m never optimistic about a player improving his defensive numbers, but it isn’t unheard of.

Michale Kyser, Louisiana Tech: Kyser is a sophomore who is a ways away from being a prospect. He’s a great shot blocker, but the rest of his game needs work. He plays at Louisiana Tech though, which is basically mid-major PF University, boasting Karl Malone, PJ Brown, Paul Millsap and top 10 bust Randy White as alums. That alone gives him some cred. Whether he’s the next Karl Malone or another Randy White, he is a Louisiana Tech Bulldog and that has meant something.

Carter-Williams and Smart emerge as the top 2013 PG Prospects

by Ed Weiland

One thing I’ve written about extensively is the importance of posting a high RSB40 for guard prospects. That’s combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. My rule is any college PG who posts an RSB40 over 7.0 while also showing an ability to pass and score efficiently is a solid NBA prospect. Any college PG who posts a RSB40 under 6.0 will usually struggle in the NBA, regardless of his other numbers. Had the Timberwolves followed this rule, they wouldn’t have drafted Jonny Flynn in 2009 when Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson were all still on the board. I have made a few tweaks to that rule over the years, the most important being that the steals portion of the number must be over 1.4 and preferably much higher. But in general this has been a pretty safe, simple rule for evaluating guard prospects.

Taken further, PG prospects who post a RSB40 over 9.0 and show an ability to pass and score efficiently are potential NBA superstars. To explain it without the numbers, any college PG who can rebound and block shots on a par of most college forwards is flashing the type of dominant athleticism and ability that translates very well to the NBA. It’s important to score and pass well in addition to posting a high RSB40. Prospects that do all 3 effectively are potential NBA stars.

Because of this, 2 college PGs have caught my eye early in the 2013 season. Both sophomore Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse and freshman Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State are showing early signs of NBA-level athleticism. Here are their numbers through Wednesday:

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	A40	A/TO	S40	RSB40
Marcus Smart	485	200	15.5	6.7	1.5	2.8	12.5
Michael Carter-Williams	500	125	13.2	11.9	3.4	5.2	13.2

Both these guys look like very good prospects right now. Smart has logged 173 minutes so far, Carter-Williams 124. While it is early, it is very impressive that both players have a 12+ RSB40 while still posting decent scoring and solid passing numbers. The only freshmen PGs to average a double figure RSB40 with 6+ A40 were Jason Kidd and Penny Hardaway. The only sophomores were Kidd, Hardaway, Rajon Rondo and Erik Murdock. Murdock wasn’t the all-star the other 3 were, but was a serviceable NBA PG who finished top 10 in assists twice and steals 3 times. If both players maintain this pace for the season, they’ll find themselves in pretty fast company.

It’s definitely too early to declare Carter-Williams and Smart as the 2^nd and 3^rd coming of Jason Kidd. But their histories before this year suggest both should continue to post an excellent RSB40. As a freshman playing behind a loaded, veteran backcourt Carter-Williams logged 269 minutes with a 9.7 RSB40, high assists and shaky, but not terrible scoring. That’s pretty much what he’s been as the starter this year. Smart’s only history coming in was 20 minutes in one HS all-star game where he grabbed 5 boards and blocked a shot. HS all-star games aren’t the best place to evaluate prospects. But the fact that Smart flashed similar ability to what he has shown so far at OK State suggests this is his real level of ability. In addition both bring good NBA size to the PG position, Carter-Williams is 6’5”, Smart is 6’4”.

The only question with both players is whether they can improve their offense enough to go from dominant athlete to dominant player. It won’t be an easy jump, but I’m optimistic both can get there. The main reason is offensive skills have historically been much easier to develop than defensive skills. Another reason to be optimistic is the only place both players come up real short so far is 3-point shooting. That’s the easiest skill for any prospect to develop.

Either way, Smart and Carter-Williams have established themselves as the nation’s top 2 PG prospects in the early going. No other freshman PG has stepped in and performed even close to the level Smart has. Of the returning PGs, Aaron Craft has struggled so far with an increased offensive load. Lorenzo Brown continues to struggle with offense and Trey Burke just doesn’t have the defensive numbers to consider him a top prospect. Seniors Pierre Jackson and Nate Wolters are off to good starts, but still look like NBA role players at best. Ryan Harrow can’t seem to get on the court.

Did I mention that it’s still very early in the season? I think I did and that’s an important thing to keep in mind when evaluating the play of any prospect in November. Both Smart and Carter-Williams could go either way at this point. A December shooting slump could bury any player and historically erratic scorers like Carter-Williams are especially prone to such sorry streaks. That’s why I generally wait until January to make an official top 60 prospect list. But early on both Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams have put themselves on the map as players to watch.

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