Statistically, Beal measures up OK as a prospect. He has the high RSB40 (combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes) and 2PP (2-point field goal percentage), but he didn’t score as frequently as good SG prospects should. The statistic that stands out as a red flag for Beal is his low, 17.4, P40 (points per 40 minutes). Historically it has been important for SG prospects to be at 20.0 and preferably higher. A scorer’s mentality is vital for any NBA SG and it isn’t clear whether or not Beal has this yet. What Beal has going for him is he’s still very young. Freshmen get some leeway on hitting all the benchmarks. In the case of Beal, he joined a college backcourt that already featured a couple of mad bombers in Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. It is likely Beal found FG attempts difficult to come by as a freshman.

There have been freshmen who overcame low-scoring starts, upped their P40 in subsequent years and became solid NBA SGs. The tables below compare Beal with similar players. Those being SGs who scored less than 18.0 P40 as college freshmen, but also posted a high RSB40. The first group is players who were drafted and went on to have a successful NBA career. The second group is players who were drafted in the first or early 2nd round, but didn’t live up to expectations. In all cases these numbers are from the player’s freshman season.

Successes       2PP     3PP   P40  S40  RSB40

D. Christie     .600   .255   14.6   2.6    11.2

R. Harper        .497*   n/a    16.2  2.8    12.9

H. Hawkins    .581*   n/a    15.7   1.9      9.0

F. Hoiberg       .641     .260  15.8  2.5     9.7

Ed. Jones          .517     .351  17.4   3.0   10.2

A. McKie            .521     .321  15.4   2.5     9.3

J. Richardson .546    .296 13.0  1.4    12.3

L. Sprewell        .541    .339  17.4  1.6    10.6

B. Beal                      .541       .339  17.4    1.6    10.6

Just a quick note, Hoiberg might be a reach as a “success”. I included him, because he was a 2nd round draft pick who played close to 10,000 minutes in his career and was very productive when he played.

Busts                         2PP     3PP   P40  S40  RSB40

S. Burrell               .415     .313    12.7   2.9    12.9

D. Boyce                 .462    .278   17.8   2.9      9.7

J. Grayer                .529*    n/a   14.4   1.2       9.3

D. Hopson             .474*    n/a   11.5    1.6       9.1

S. Jacobson          .517      .321   16.2    1.4     11.7

R. Minor                 .526     .233  14.0    1.9      9.5

B. Rush                    .474     .472  17.0    1.1       9.4

J. Sasser                  .448     .262  18.0    1.8    12.3

J. Trepagnier      .452     .200  15.3    2.4   12.2

B. Beal                      .541       .339  17.4    1.6    10.6

The 2PP numbers for Harper, Hawkins, Grayer and Hopson are simple FG pct. The breakdown of 2- and 3-point percentages weren’t available. What stands out here are two things. The successful group of players had a higher 2-point percentage and more steals as a group. The 2PP being well over .500 seems almost essential for successful prospects. Beal is there at .541. His steals are low, at 1.6, but not low enough that I would even call it a red flag.

The two players Beal most resembles in this group are Sprewell and Richardson. A similar career to either of these players would represent Beal’s best case scenario. Both players were considered among the 5-10 SGs in the league during their prime. Both were at best the #3 player on a contender. That’s not a bad thing and I feel this is probably the best guess at where Beal will be in 10 years.

Whether or not this is a player worthy of the #2 pick is another matter. The second overall pick comes with a high price tag. He’ll probably cost something in the neighborhood of $17 mil for the first 4 seasons. Considering there will be at least a couple of developmental years involved with Beal that seems like a high price to pay just to develop the next Latrell Sprewell.

The second pick the NBA draft has produced many stars, but also many famous busts. Bob Petit, Bill Russell, Jerry West, Rick Barry, Earl Monroe Dave Bing, Wes Unseld, Rudy Tomjanovich, Bob McAdoo, Isaiah Thomas, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning and Kevin Durant were all drafted 2nd, which shows a HOFer can be found. The busts have fallen into 3 categories:

• Big guys who were more big than good: Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic, Shawn Bradley, Sam Bowie and Steve Stipanovich.

• Freshmen forwards: This is a more recent trend and includes only Michael Beasley and Marvin Williams.

• Players who probably weren’t worthy of a high pick, but were considered the next best option in a one-player draft: Stromile Swift, Danny Ferry, Dave Meyers, Marvin Barnes. Jim Brewer and Neal Walk.

The 2012 draft looks like a one-player draft to me, that one player being Anthony Davis. There are plenty of intriguing players, but none who look like a worthy gamble with the 2nd pick. There’s a potential big guy bust in talented, but raw Andre Drummond. There’s also the freshman forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and any number of players who could rise past the others during the process and land at pick #2.

I had originally planned to start the 2012 draft preview with a look at my choice for #2, Tony Mitchell of North Texas. Mitchell decided to head back to school so that will have to wait until next year. Instead I’ll start by looking at some of the players who are currently at #2 in the mocks. Leading off is Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

The thing that stands out with Gilchrist is the fact that nothing stands out. There is little in his numbers that suggest he’s a star. As a freshman he was something of a super-role player on the nation’s most talented team. But there is nothing about his statistics that suggest lottery pick, let alone the 2nd overall draftee. He finished 4th on the team in scoring, didn’t lead in any statistical categories and put up ordinary offensive efficiency numbers.

In his defense is that he was cast as a role player on a successful team and probably gave up individual stats for the good of the team because of it. Particularly low were the scoring numbers. Gilchrist finished with a 14.8 P40 (Points per 40 minutes). Successful prospects usually hit at least 18.0. To get an idea of how similar players developed, here’s a look at previous NCAA freshmen small forwards who scored less than 15.0 P40 (Points per 40 minutes), but went on to play at least 10,000 NBA minutes.

A quick rundown of the numbers used:

• Adjusted FG pct is points scored on all FGs divided by 2. I like using this efficiency number for SFs as opposed to the simple 2-point pct. I use for all the other positions. The reasons for this is historically it has been more important for SF prospects to post a higher number in this stat and a high AFGP often reveals a player who can score in multiple ways. This is also more important for a SF than other positions.

• P40 and R40 are points and rebounds per 40 minutes.

• ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. This is also a stat I use exclusively for SFs, because it showcases the diverse set of skills necessary for the position.

• A/TO is assist-turnover ratio. I include this number for all positions, simply because an extremely low A/TO can be a red flag.

Player Adj FG pct. P40 R40 ASB40 A/TO

Detlef Schrempf .452 11.7 7.1 2.3 0.6

Shane Battier .551 12.4 10.4 6.5 1.6

Robert Horry .438 13.6 10.6 6.4 1.0

Derrick McKey .477 9.2 7.4 5.2 1.1

Ty Corbin .417 9.4 11.4 4.2 0.5

Rick Fox .644 14.7 6.8 6.8 0.8

Stacey Augmon .578 14.1 9.3 7.1 0.9

Matt Harpring .540 14.0 7.2 4.6 1.1

Walt Williams .462 12.3 6.0 7.3 0.9

Jared Dudley .496 14.0 7.8 5.1 1.3

Trevor Ariza .462 14.7 8.2 5.3 0.6

Desmond Mason .438 10.7 5.9 3.3 0.5

Bobby Simmons .420 14.6 8.0 5.8 0.9

Malik Sealy .500 13.5 6.7 4.2 0.8

Tom Hammonds .609 15.0 7.9 2.2 0.6

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist .500 14.8 9.4 4.8 0.9

Players are listed in rough order of NBA accomplishment. Schrempf is the only all-star on the list, though Battier and Horry were both all-stars in terms of the intangibles they brought. The thing that stands out most about this group is that these are mainly role players. In the case of Schrempf, Battier, Horry and McKey I’d call them super-role players, but none could be considered more than the 3rd-best player on a contender. So that should be considered the far high end for Gilchrist.

Both Battier and Horry flashed other skills that aren’t as apparent with Gilchrist. Both players were strong rebounders, good passers and posted a very high ASB40. While not on the level of Battier or Horry, Gilchrist is a good rebounder and a decent passer, but his ASB40 is a low 4.8. This is a bad sign, as a common trait among successful SFs has been an ASB40 of at least 5.5.

It is worth noting that Gilchrist’s ASB40 was a much more respectable 5.5 at the end of February. In March and April his numbers fell across the board, but nowhere near as dramatically as they did in steals and blocks. It’s possible he was injured, or even fatigued, what with this being his first ever season at this level. Because he had been at 5.5 before the tournaments I can cut him a little slack here.

Battier, Horry and many of the others here also helped their careers by being able to knock down a 3-pointer consistently. Gilchrist hit only .255 on his 51 3-point attempts, so this is another part of his game that needs works. It isn’t that difficult for a player to develop a decent 3-point shot. With Gilchrist, who is young even for a college freshman and from everything I’ve read has a great attitude and work ethic, I would expect him to do as much. But until the shots actually start dropping this does remain something of a question mark.

As for Schrempf, he was something of an outlier. His numbers are for only 314 freshman minutes in 1982, which was before college basketball had a shot clock. While this does show that all NCAA freshmen have a long way to go and a lot is possible after a weak start, I don’t consider it too relevant.

For some more perspective on where Gilchrist stands, here are some previous freshmen SFs who left college after one year. Like Gilchrist, all played on national powers. Anthony and Williams played on loaded championship teams.

Player Adj FG pct. P40 R40 ASB40 A/TO

Carmelo Anthony .498 24.4 11.0 5.1 1.0

Corey Maggette .580 24.0 8.7 6.0 0.7

Tim Thomas .506 21.6 7.7 6.2 0.7

Marvin Williams .545 20.4 11.8 4.1 0.5

Luol Deng .563 19.4 8.7 5.4 0.8

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist .500 14.8 9.4 4.8 0.9

Gilchrist’s numbers are weak when compared to this group. He wasn’t the scorer the other players were. Successful prospects have with rare exception always scored more often and efficiently than Gilchrist did this past season. This has been regardless of whether they played on a roster loaded with HS all-Americans or not.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is not likely to become an NBA all-star. He just hasn’t shown he has the offensive chops to become such a player. His high end is a player in the mold of Battier or Horry. This isn’t a terrible thing as such players are valuable and rarely become overpaid salary cap problems. Everything I’ve read about his attitude and approach has been glowing, so I would even say he has a better chance of reaching the Battier/Horry level than his low ASB40 suggests. But he does have a long way to go. He has to learn to shoot better and because he didn’t put up the dominant defensive stats Battier and Horry did at the same stage of their careers, I would call him something of a longshot to reach that level. All I see in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a decent NBA SF who would be quite a reach at the #2 pick.

2.  Least Dramatic First Round Ever?: As noted, no series in the First Round has gone to 2-2 and we are looking at possibly no Game 7s and only a few Game 6s.    Is this atypical?  Well, since 2002-03 (when the NBA first made the First Round best-of-seven) getting Game 7s in the First Round is far from a foregone conclusion but the NBA usually delivered at least one Game 7 a year but never more than two in season.  In fact, last year was the first time there was no Game 7 in the First Round (though there were four Game 6s).  The most boring First Round of the seven-game era was 2003-04 when four series were sweeps and three series went only five games.  The lone outlier was Heat-Hornets, which went seven but was not particularly exciting with the exception of a game winner hit by some rookie named Dwyane Wade.  The most Game 6s and Game 7s in one year came the year before in 2002-03, when five series went six games and two went seven and the one other series went five games.

3.  Age Limit Again: Turning away from the playoffs for a second, I couldn’t help but notice the concerted push by both the NCAA and NBA to try to raise the age limit to enter the NBA draft from 19 to 20, effectively forcing most players to spend two years in college and not one.  David Stern has avoided any moral judgments in taking this stance and called this a financial issue:  ”Our rule is that they won’t be eligible for the draft until they’re 19. They can play in Europe, they can play in the D-League, they can go to college. This is a not a social program, this is a business rule for us. The NFL has a rule which requires three years of college. So the focus is often on ours, but it’s really not what we require in college. It’s that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it’s been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable.”

Mark Cuban is also on board but frames this as a moral issue, where the limit would benefit those barred from coming to the NBA:  ”It’s not even so much about lottery busts, it’s about kids’ lives that we’re ruining. Even if you’re a first-round pick and you have three years of guaranteed money, or two years now of guaranteed money, then what? Because if you’re a bust and it turns out you just can’t play in the NBA, your ‘rocks for jocks’ one year of schooling isn’t going to get you far.  I just don’t think it takes into consideration the kids enough. Obviously, I think there’s significant benefit for the NBA. It’s not my decision to make, but that’s my opinion on it.”

Most recently, Steve Kerr wrote a piece in Grantland.com, outlining all sorts of reasons why the age limit helps.  Kerr is a thoughtful guy and touches on both financial and moral reasons why forcing the athletes to get some college experience benefits everyone.  His arguments overlap with both the comments of Stern and Cuban.  Let’s review Kerr’s six identified arguments and see if they hold muster:

1.  High school players aren’t mature enough to be ready to play in the NBA:  Kerr argues that the transition to the NBA is so hard that teenagers need at least two years to adjust to all aspects of the NBA and being adults.  As a consequence, the NBA risks having a choppier product than if the players have spent a few years in college.  It is true that most high schoolers are not ready to play immediately in the NBA (in fact, most college seniors aren’t ready).  No evidence is presented, however, to support that having a few teenagers on the roster drags down quality of play.  The fact is that number of high schoolers to be drafted were very low and consisted mostly of players so gifted that they were quite good by their second seasons (and LeBron James and Dwight Howard were really good as 18-year old rookies).  So, while in the abstract this argument has merit, I don’t think this holds muster.   Good players are good players and good coaches teach players, no matter the league they play/coach in.  Sure, some players could be missing out on basic life experience by going to college for two or three years but the alarming rate of post-career bankruptcies of players in all sports doesn’t support the theory that coping is a skill necessarily learned in college.

2.  The NBA has a financial interest in seeing young players compete so that they can avoid costly speculation in the uncertain high school/teenage athlete market:  This is the core of Stern’s statement but is actually Kerr’s weakest argument by far.  The history of high schoolers in the NBA draft shows a much high success rate than most other pools of tools.  It is almost prosaic to go over this but here is the rundown of United States high schoolers (with no college or juco experience at all) taken in the NBA draft since 1995:

1995: Kevin Garnett (4th)

1996: Kobe Bryant (13), Jermaine O’Neal (17)

1997:  Tracy McGray (9)

1998:  Al Harrington (25), Rashard Lewis (32), Korleone Young (40)

1999:  Jonathan Bender (5), Leon Smith (29)

2000: Darius Miles (3), DeShawn Stevenson (23)

20001: Kwame Brown (1), Tyson Chandler (2), Eddy Curry (4), DeSagana Diop (8)

2002: Amare Stoudemire (9)

2003: LeBron James (1), Travis Outlaw (23), Ndudi Ebi (26), Kendrick Perkins (27)

2004: Dwight Howard (1), Shaun Livingston (4), Robert Swift (12), Sebastian Telfair (13), Al Jefferson (15), Josh Smith (17), J.R. Smith (18), Dorell Wright (19)

2005: Martell Webster (6), Andrew Bynum (10), Gerald Green (18), C.J. Miles (34), Monta Ellis (40),  Louis Williams (45), Andray Blatche (49), Amir Johnson (56)

I don’t see too many busts here.  In fact, I see many more Hall of Famers than busts, as well as some really good value picks late in the first round and in the second round.  If anything, the high schoolers have usually been undervalued with only a few notable exceptions.  In 2005, the last year of high schoolers, every second rounder from high school was, at least, a useful pro.  If this financial uncertainty is the main argument for a draft limit, we have to call BS on this.  The argument seemed thin in the article and non-existent when the actual lists are reviewed.  If high schoolers were crapping out to often, they would just not be drafted high.  No need to “save” GMs from themselves on this issue.

Kerr doubles down on this argument, stating that he doubted it made any difference to any player that any great player that he got his max contract at 24 as opposed to 22.   College is great if you want it but I don’t know a single player who would sneeze at losing out on $4-10 million those extra two years in college would cost him.  Even more telling, ask Rashard Lewis whether he would give back those two years.   Had Rashard Lewis been two years older when he came to the NBA, he would’ve hit the free agent market for his big contract at 29 and not 27, which could’ve cost him the max contract he did get from Orlando.

3.  Player development is hurt by not going to college: Kerr states that the NCAA prepared players for the pros and demonstrates this by showing that Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan had much better numbers as rookies than even the best high schoolers like LeBron and Dwight Howard.  This is true but does not prove the the better numbers resulted from the older players having played in college.  Most players consistently improve from ages 18 to 27 and so the older you are when you enter the league, the better you will probably be.  LeBron improved quite nicely from age 18 to age 23 without college tutorials.  It is definitely true that some players could use the college environment but I, as a fan, would hate to miss out on two years of LeBron or Howard just to make sure that some more marginal players stay in school.

4.  College stars create fan interest for the pros:  Kerr notes that college stars like Patrick Ewing were hugely anticipated coming into the NBA and that this helps fan interest.  This is true on some level but college stardom only matters if the player is actually good as pro.  Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, and Tyler Hansbrough were huge college stars.  Conversely, no one knew who Karl Malone or John Stockton were in college and they became NBA legends.  but Any NCAA fanfare quickly burns away if the player doesn’t dominate as a pro.  Laettner was a solid pro but was almost totally forgotten one it was clear that he was not going to be great.   A great college player will have a certain aura about him if he is also great as a pro but do you really think anyone cares that Kobe Bryant didn’t go to Duke now?

5.  College fosters a sense of team that high schoolers don’t get through the whole crazy AAU process: Maybe this is true to some extent but why can’t this same sense of “team” be found in the pros?

6.  College provides mentors in coaches that are key to development: This argument sort of overlaps with some of the other arguments but a great coach can really help a player develop.  But not every college player gets to play with Dean Smith or Lute Olson.  A great coach can help but this is a very minor subsidiary point.

Overall, I think most of the reasons given for limiting high school player access to the NBA are strawmen arguments.  Baseball forces players to declare after high school or wait three years because they have an anti-trust exception and can do whatever they want.  The NFL limits access on the more compelling pretense that 18 and 19 year olds are not physically as strong and could get really hurt in the violent NFL.  I see Stern’s position as illusory.  He doesn’t want his league to get bad press for having too many young players and thus will support an age limit to make the NBA look more socially responsible.  I can understand why he does this and can’t say this is a bad business move but the pretenses for the rule are thin at best.  In an ideal world, the NBA would come up with a rule to let the best players (like LeBron) come out early but I guess we don’t live in an ideal world.

2.  Thunder-Mavs: Glass half full or half empty?  The Mavs have given the OKC basically all they can handle on the road but have come up empty both times.  The old saying is that the a series hasn’t started until the home team loses a game so, technically, the Mavs can hold serve in Dallas and still have two more shots at winning a road game.  In reality, this is still very tough.  The key to Dallas’ success has been holding down Kevin Durant, who is a collective 15-44 from the field (thanks mostly to Shawn Marion).   As great as Dallas has done on Durant, you have to think it can’t last.  KD has shot under 40% in three consecutive games only once all year.  Dallas might be able to hold serve and keep this series going but Durant will get hot and end this thing.

3.  Lakers-Nuggets:   Remember how Kobe Bryant got quite mad at the Lakers from refusing to trade a young Andrew Bynum for Jason Kidd in 2007?  Kidd was still solid player at that point but since that time, Bynum has never had a PER under 20 and it’s pretty likely that Kobe would’ve gotten no more titles if the deal had been cut as he wanted.  This is not to disparage Kidd but he’s older and the fact is point guards have a very subsidiary role in the Phil Jackson triangle.   Getting back to the present, Bynum has looked like the best player in this series and he has totally prevented Javale McGee from any offensive opportunities.  The Lakers are plus 17.5 when Bynum plays (according to NBA.com).  In Denver, the Nuggets may have to go with Ty Lawson and Andre Miller back court more often, as Corey Brewer can’t stop Kobe or score enough on offense, while Miller and Lawson will give Kobe some problems on the defensive end.  Denver has historically had a huge home court advantage but have been a little weaker than usual this year (20-13).  They look overwhelmed so far this series and will need Lawson to go crazy to win both games in Denver.

4.  Clippers-Grizzlies: The only really compelling series out West so far.  L.A. and Memphis look really well matched.   We have had a ridiculous comeback and then Memphis immediately answer a crushing loss and winning Game 2, which should help debunk any talk of “momentum.”  Even still, the Clipps look to be in a good spot going back to Los Angeles.  Memphis is a weak road team and the Clipps have been really good at home so far at 24-9.   A cause for concern, though, is Vinny Del Negro’s use of Bobby Simmons in place of the injured Caron Butler.  Simmons actually shot really well, atypical for him, but this probably won’t happen again and might only encourage Del Negro to ignore the last five years of bad shooting and try to ride a hand that isn’t actually that hot.  The Clipps will have to find another scorer behind Chris Paul and Blake Griffin but that is much more likely to be Randy Foye or Nick Young and not Simmons.  As for Memphis, they obviously can take a game back in L.A. but are looking at an uphill battle.   As a side note, Game 2 also had a nice illustration of the limits of plus/minus when Quincy Pondexter led the team at +12 in his 15 minutes of mostly not doing much but being fortunate enough to play while Memphis made its best run.

1. Tanking: The theme of the final month of the NBA season has been tanking.  Namely, that the bad teams have quit trying in an attempt to amass ping pong balls for the NBA Lottery.   But is this true?  Well, the anecdotal evidence overwhelmingly supports this assertion.  Of the 16 teams currently in the NBA playoffs, all are at least 5-5 in their last ten games, except Orlando (which is 4-6 and has been reeling with the injury to Dwight Howard).  Of the 14 teams now outside of the playoff picture, only four teams are 5-5 in the past ten games and two of those teams (Phoenix and Milwaukee) are still actively competing for the playoffs.  Ten of those 14 teams are 3-7 or worse in their past ten.  Of course, one would expect the poor teams to play poor in any random sampling of ten games but the ineptitude is palpable and most of these bad teams have shut down key players already.

Of course, there is little incentive for bad teams to really try to win once they obviously won’t make the playoffs.  Indeed, teams get a better chance to win the Lottery with more losses.   There is some value to finishing strong, as winning will give the bad team some positive feelings with fans for the next season.  But good feelings aren’t going to be too strong enough merely because a team the goes from loser to competitive non-playoff team.  Throw in that competing requires risk to your best players for the next season, and the slim benefits of finishing strong are clearly dwarfed by the benefits of losing.  So, unless you are on the perimeter of the playoff race, the only real incentive to compete after a team has established itself as bad is where the coach or GM who is at a risk of job loss and hopes to show intra-season improvement sufficient to avoid being fired.

Henry Abbott over at ESPN argued that tanking is deleterious to the NBA and rewards bad decision making and should, therefore, be eliminated.  Tanking is not really good for the NBA but it is difficult to think of a system that incentivizes competition over tanking.  The concept of the NBA Lottery was invented to limit tanking (particularly after the Rockets were accused of tanking to get the pick that became Hakeem Olajuwon in 1984).  The Lottery initially gave all non-playoff teams an equal shot of winning the Lottery and thus a team on the verge of the playoffs had as much of a shot of getting the top pick as the worst teams.  The NBA figured that the system wasn’t fair to the really bad teams and could even encourage border line playoff teams to junk a run at a low playoff seed for the shot at the top pick.  So, the weighted Lottery system was adopted and being bad became the best way to possibly get a better pick, even if you weren’t sure to have a top three pick.

Is this current system a problem?  Well, it isn’t good that bad teams look like even bigger pushovers come April but fixing this only creates more problems.  The best idea put forward came from Bill Simmons, who has talked about a tournament between the non-playoff teams, with the winner getting the best pick.  This would encourage teams to play harder for better seeding in a theoretical tournament but the incentive still isn’t that great.  Playing hard won’t help because the seeding isn’t really that important since none of the really bad teams are usually so good that getting a top seed in a loser’s bracket would be that big a deal.  For example, if we were to fictionally create a loser’s tourney right now for 2011-12, the Suns would be the top seed and would have a bye but the third seeded Bucks would draw the Bobcats, not exactly a huge disadvantage for Houston.  Also, the moderately bad teams, like the Nets or Raptors probably wouldn’t care which top seed they draw and winning a round in the bad tourney wouldn’t exactly excite the fans. A loser’s tourney has the distinct stench of the NIT, much ado about nothing to the fans.   At the end of the day, the Lottery is the best way to balance between making sure the decent teams shoot for the playoffs teams and the bad teams are given a better chance but not a guaranteed shot at the highest picks and no artificial system is really going to fix this.  For now, we just have to accept that the bad teams will be worse by the end of the season.

2. Bobcats Are Quite Bad: It may be a shortened season but Charlotte is threatening to have the lowest winning percentage in modern history.  At 7-56, the Bobcats are worst offensive and defensive team in the NBA and their expected won-loss doesn’t short change them either, as the point differential projects to the same 7-56 record.  It is clear that Charlotte has been managed horribly from day one and it is important for the team to get another win just to avoid another humiliation for the continually alienated local fans.  At the end of the day, though, the Bobcats already bottomed out with some terrible drafts and the trading of Tyson Chandler for nothing but financial savings.  It seems, though, that the Bobcats have figured this all out and Michael Jordan has finally hired a competent GM in Rich Cho.  If Charlotte gets Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, they will have a nice building block.  The fans may never feel for the Bobcats like they did for the Hornets but better the Bobcats are doing the right thing in dumping their mediocre vets and starting over.  Now they just have to not screw up the coming draft choices.

3. Metta World Elbow: I caught much of the fun Lakers/Thunder game on Sunday.  A great game was lost to the side story of Metta World Peace’s hard elbow to the head of James Harden.  World Peace was rightfully tossed from the game and has earned a suspension of five games or so.  World Peace claimed after the game that the elbow was unintentional and part of his celebration of a made basket.  In reviewing the tape, World Peace seemed very much aware of Harden’s presence and meant to shove him off, though he probably didn’t  mean to hit him so squarely in the head.  The elbow looked very similar to one that World Peace threw at Chris Paul earlier in the season.

While World Peace definitely deserves his punishment, this incident should not be looked at as a back slide to his reckless behavior from many years ago, when he started a brawl in Detroit.  The elbow on Harden was vicious but is a part of the game.  Being guilty of serial elbow is not a character defect, as Bill Cartwright, Dikembe Mutombo, and Karl Malone can attest.

First, let’s breakdown the facts that seem undisputed:

-The Magic seem to have stalled out as a title contender the last few years.  They are good but not great and have some bad contracts, notably Hedo Turkoglu (whom they re-acquired and gave up Martin Gortat to do it).  Turkoglu is not really tradeable unless you take back another bad or worse contract or he is packaged with a really good player (like Howard).  They plenty of other bad smaller deals too (Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson).

-Howard, as a pending free agent before the season, told Orlando he was not going to re-sign and he wanted to be traded, preferably to the New Jersey Nets.

-The Magic decided to hold onto Howard in the not entirely unreasonable hope that the Magic played very well this year he might stay with backup plan that they could also wait until the trade deadline and make a deal at that time if the situation was hopeless.

-Once again, the Magic looked pretty good (but not great) at the deadline.  Orlando is limbo since they are good enough to keep him but they are a longshot to win it all.  At the deadline, Howard first suggests he should not be traded because he might re-sign, even though all indications are that he will be gone at the end of the year.  Some thought Howard was angling to avoid a trade because the Nets were going nowhere this year and he could always sign with them at the end of the season.  In that case, the Nets would have Howard and get to keep the tons of assets needed to acquire Howard in a trade.  This would be a bit underhanded because Howard’s public statements put pressure on Orlando to keep him when, privately, he likely had no such intention, screwing the Magic out of an ability to get value for him.  After much uproar and some unspecified discussions with management, Howard somehow agrees to delay his free agency one more year and the Magic cling to the hope they get hot and knock off the Heat and Bulls and get to the Finals.  If not, the Magic go through the same uncertainty with Howard next year.

-Things seem hunky dory enough after the deadline but the Magic struggled to a 5-8 record and Howard missed some time with back spasms.  It is at this point, Van Gundy calls out Howard for continually trying to get him fired over the last year.

-This weekend, GM Otis Smith states that, as far as Smith knows, Howard never tried to get Smith to fire Van Gundy.

There are the publicly available facts.  Something does seem to be missing here.  Players try to get coaches fired all the time.  Magic Johnson helped Pat Riley get let go after several titles and the player and the players likely did the same to Van Gundy in Miami.  Hell, Jeff Van Gundy spent the entire 1998-99 season being undermined by a management that was openly courting Phil Jackson during the season.  So, Stan Van Gundy is obviously not naïve enough to be hurt by Howard’s angling for a new coach.  Something had to set off Van Gundy.  Either Van Gundy had a goal here or he was just tired and pissed off.  It’s hard to think that this was calculated because publicly humiliating Howard probably would not make the team play better or help Van Gundy’s long term situation in Orlando.  More likely, Van Gundy seems to have thought he was a goner and he wanted to go down making Howard feel some of the uncomfortable vibe that Van Gundy felt.

I guess, in the moment, what Van Gundy did felt really good.  Howard was left standing there with a cheapish grin and an unconvincing denial.  But this is a classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.  Van Gundy guaranteed he will be canned at the end of the year regardless and now and future employers may question whether he can deal with temperamental stars.  Backstabbing players are a common job hazard in the NBA and creating organizational chaos to put the players in their place is not what any management wants.  And it’s not like Van Gundy was in a bad place.  He had done a creditable job as coach and would leave the Magic as an above-average coach.  Howard might not like Van Gundy but his substantive beef was not underperforming but the inability of Orlando’s front office to bring in the right pieces around him.  None of what Van Gundy did will serve the goals of the Magic or SVG’s future.

As crazy as SVG seemed the other day, I was almost more astounded by Smith’s public denials of the statements.  Smith said that he had no knowledge of a request from Howard to fire Van Gundy.  This statement, while probably honest, leaves Smith in one of two places, and neither is good.  Either Howard went over Smith’s head and might’ve also requested that Smith be fired or Smith is lying.  Neither situation is a good one for Smith or Orlando.  Smith should have declined comment since nothing he could say would make Howard or Van Gundy look any better.

This begs the next question:  Should the Magic have fired Van Gundy immediately after his press conference?  This is a tough question.  The statements and resulting chaos certainly were justification to can Van Gundy immediately.  But firing Van Gundy might only put more blood on Howard’s hands.  If Van Gundy is quietly fired in the off season, this would be much less jarring to all involved.  Howard still seems like a bad guy on some level but not on the same level and the Magic don’t seem like they fired SVG only to keep Howard happy.

Despite this, I would’ve still fired Van Gundy immediately.  Once he made public comments that should’ve been left in-house, he lost Howard and compromised everything the Magic’s goal of keeping Howard.  Why do anything contrary to that goal now?  Sure, Howard will look like a jerk but people will forget all this if he re-signs.  The plan was to try to make a deep playoff run this summer to convince Howard to stay.  Howard now despises SVG, which makes the playoff run less likely.  Instead, they should’ve hired a splashy coach now and hoped to catch lightning in a bottle.  The obvious candidate is Larry Brown.  Brown is older now and still grates (much like SVG) but almost every Brown team starts hot.  It’s a desperate plan but the Magic’s plan has reeked of desperation all season anyway.

1997-98: 8 players

1998-99: 22 players (50 game schedule so eligibility was reduced to 20 games)

1999-00: 7 players

2000-01: 12 players

2001-02: 11 players

2002-03: 11 players

2003-04: 10 players

2004-05: 9 players

2005-06: 5 players

20006-07: 5 players

2007-08: 9 players

2008-09: 5 players

2009-10: 5 players

2010-11: 8 players

2011-12 17 players (through 50 games so far, threshold reduced to 20 games for eligibility)

Bingo.  We have seen more players really crap out this year then usuald.  In fact, the only worse season was 1998-99, the other lockout season, which was highlighted by particularly poor play.  This year, the NBA has looked relatively crisp considering the rushed start to the season but a mix of youngsters who need more time to develop (Kemba Walker, Ricky Rubio) and vets who just might be cooked (Artest, Corey Maggette, Kidd).  The age distribution of this year’s horrible shooting group is spread mostly in the early 20s or the over 31 set and there are no players between ages 26-30 who are in this group.  Past history indicates that the older guys will have problems arresting the declining.  Of the 30-odd players over age-32 who made this list of bad shooters since 1997-98, only a few were able subsequently improve.  John Starks, who was awful in the lockout season improved his shooting the next few years but still was not good and role players Lindsey Hunter and Jerome Kersey improved a bit, though their volume of shooting was so low that the improvement was not statistically very significant.  As such, it’s safe to assume that most of the older guys who shot poorly this season  are not likely to bounce back, unless something weird happened (Odom is the best candidate for some improvement, given that his problems appear as much emotional as due to decline).

A few more odds and ends of the bad shooting list:

-Kidd last season had the most win shares, by far, of all the crappy shooters at 6.4 since 1997-98, followed by Bruce Bowen 2000-01 at 4.2.

-The highest volume bad shooter is Starks in 1998-99, when he shot .370% from the field and .290% from three and averaged 14.6 shots per game.  Yes, Starks was the big reward that the Warriors got for trading Latrell Sprewell.

-Vernon Maxwell might be the least effective volume shooter in 1999-00 for Seattle.  He shot .345% from the field and still got off 10.4 shots per game.   He shot poorly and then brawled with Gary Payton in the weight room.

-Jason Collins was the most hesitant bad shooter (for the 2006-07 Nets).  Collins started 78 games and averaged almost 29 mpg and shot .364 but took only 1.9 shots per game.

-Five of the top ten most shots per game for bad shooters came in the last two years (Rubio, Walker, Maggette, Chauncey Billups, and Gilbert Arenas).

-Best young player on the list?  Steve Nash in 1998-99.  The Mavs handed him the keys that year and he did not play well, despite being 24.   We assume the lockout hurt him too.  He was very good as a backup the year before and bounced back in 1999-00.

3/14    Signed Mike James to a 10-day contract

With Derrick Rose’s injury issues, Mike James has gotten another look in the NBA, long after his career seemed over.  The Bulls signed him and cut him early in the year but he was surprisingly effective, primarily because he has hit 57% of his threes (he was less impressive 12-31 inside the line).  One would think there are better alternatives than a 36-yeard old fringe player, who hasn’t been really been in the NBA since 2008-09, though he was good in the cameo earlier in the year.

Cleveland Cavaliers

3/14    Traded Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga to L.A. Lakers for Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, and a protected first-round pick and other considerations

3/15    Signed Donald Sloan to a 10-day contract

It is pretty clear that the Cavs lost the talent portion of this trade, as Sessions is a bona fide NBA starter, while Walton looks done and Kapono hasn’t hit the three, which is the only reason he is in the NBA.  The salary exchange is fairly neutral too.  So why give up the talent?  The Cavs didn’t need Sessions with Kyrie Irving playing so well but the haul here is only a first-rounder (reported to be the Lakers’ own pick in 2012) and “other considerations”, which I assume means some cash.  A first-rounder isn’t a bad haul for Sessions but you have to wonder what else might’ve been available considering how many teams could use a solid point right now.

Denver Nuggets

3/15    In a three-team traded, Washington traded Ronny Turiaf and JaVale McGee to Denver and Nick Young to L.A. Clippers for Nene from Denver and Brian Cook and a 2015 second-round pick from the L.A. Clippers

Talk about a fascinating out of the blue move.  Only a few months ago, Nene was the centerpiece of the post-Carmelo Nuggets and now he’s gone for McGee.  How did this happen?  Hard to say exactly.  Nene’s flaws are clear: he doesn’t rebound and shot block well for a big and he has not shot as well as usual around the rim (.509% from the field versus .560% for his career).  At 29, Nene would be good the next few years but probably not as good as in his 20s.  McGee, on the other hand, offers youth, shot blocking, and incredible hops, but with tons of mental mistakes thrown in the max.  Also, McGee is a potential free agent.  Despite all this, McGee’s advanced stats are really impressive (19.7 PER, 3.2 blocks per 36 minutes, and 11.6 rebs per 36 minutes).

It seems that the Nuggets have decided that the effective team from last year was not a true title contender and they would rather re-boot with McGee than have Nene be the cornerstone of the team for the next five years.  If McGee plays great over the rest of the season, they have a free agent that they will have to pay.  If McGee does stupid things, Denver can walk away and try to find another big.  It isn’t a foolproof plan, as a Nene-led team could certainly get to the second-round of the playoffs but I like that Denver is shooting for higher upside, even if there is some risk involved.

Golden State Warriors

3/8    Traded Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown to Milwaukee for Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut

3/14  Traded Stephen Jackson to San Antonio for T.J. Ford, Richard Jefferson and a conditional first-round pick

The Monta Ellis trade makes sense for the Warriors.  Ellis duplicated Steph Curry’s strengths and was not particularly efficient and Bogut offers much needed defense.  The two things to be concerned about are: (1) Bogut’s injury history and (2) whether this was the best deal GS could have swung for Ellis.  Bogut missed 78 games the three season before this one, and has missed most of this year too.  If healthy, Bogut will bolster a weak defensive team.  If not, Ellis is gone for little.  The rumors coming out of Golden State indicated that the Warriors believed Ellis has star-level value.  Given the return for Ellis, though, management obviously did not believe what it was leaking.

Part two of the Warriors trade denied us of really contemplating the fun scenario of watching Jackson come back to Oakland, the team that he somehow demanded and got an extension from when his deal was far form over and then a demanding a trade (also successfully).  Instead, Jackson was flipped for Ford’s retired contract and Jefferson.  RJ is younger than Jackson and has been better this year but both have been below average and Jefferson’s PER has steadily declined for years now.  Thrown in the fact that Jefferson has an extra year on his contract and the Warriors have assumed more than $11 million more in salary over Jackson (who is only signed for one more year, while RJ has two years left on his deal).  The Warriors get a a first-rounder for this privilege.  In all, I don’t see the benefit to this deal.  Better to rot with Jackson, even if he left town on terrible terms the first time.

Houston Rockets

3/14    Traded Jordan Hill to L.A. Lakers for Derek Fisher and a conditional first-round pick

3/15    Traded Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet and a second-round pick to Portland for Marcus Camby

3/16    Waived Terrence Williams

Presumably, Fisher will be bought out.  The Rockets will hope clearing future salary and getting a pick beats a decent backup forward in Hill.  As for Fish, his career maybe over at this point, though his numbers aren’t really any worse than the last two years.  I guess some title team might grab him as a veteran leader type.  He could certainly have more value in Chicago than Mike James.

Camby, however, is a pure veteran stretch run acquisition.  The Rockets have been slightly below average defensively and in shot blocking.  Camby can’t score at all anymore but he has boarded as well as ever this year (he even has a career high in rebounds per minute this season) and can still swat shots.  A nice pick up and obtained for dead weight.

Indiana Pacers

3/14    Traded a second-round pick to Toronto for Leandrinho Barbosa

Barbosa is still instant offense off of the bench and provides a nice addition for the Pacers.  Indiana is deep enough that it isn’t clear where Barbosa’s minutes will come from.  Both Darren Collison and George Hill have shot well and are better passers but this is a free talent grab and Frank Vogel will have to figure out how to make the pieces fit.  In any case, this is pretty much a riskless trade with a chance of really helping the team if Barbosa gets hot.

Los Angeles Clippers

3/9    Signed Bobby Simmons to a second 10-day contract

3/15    In a three-team traded, Washington traded Ronny Turiaf and JaVale McGee to Denver and Nick Young to L.A. Clippers for Nene from Denver and Brian Cook and a 2015 second-round pick from the L.A. Clippers

Nick Young is a one-dimensional scorer but he’s pretty good at that one dimension (19.8 points per 36 minutes).  With no good shooting backups at guard (Randy Foye and Eric Bledsoe are both shooting below 39% from the field), Young will get playing time as instant offense off the bunch.  A very nice haul for a second-rounder and Brian Cook’s remains.

Los Angeles Lakers

3/14    Traded Derek Fisher and a conditional first-round pick to Houston for Jordan Hill

3/14    Traded Luke Walton, Jason Kapono and a protected first-round pick and other considerations to Cleveland for Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga

On the Lakers, conventional point guards don’t thrive with Kobe but Fisher’s lack of athleticism and Steve Blake’s inability to score were both so stark that a warm body like Sessions was needed to offer a little bit of what neither incumbent has.   The Lakers may actually be better served to keep Sessions on the bench to be a scorer for the second unit and just so it can have some scoring threats.  As for Fisher, he’s had some great Laker moments but sentiment only brings you so far.  Los Angeles has a pretty good team and a chance to make some impact in the playoffs.  Swapping out Fisher to make sure a better player like Sessions gets time and also nabbing a live body like Hill is a good move.  Don’t worry, Fisher might not get his number retired later but he will be an executive of coach in L.A. at some point in the future.

Memphis Grizzlies

3/14    Traded Sam Young to Philadelphia for draft rights to Ricky Sanchez

When you are traded for the draft rights to someone who will likely never play in the NBA, you have to kind of figure the Grizz don’t want you around.  Just in case you are really wondering, though, Sanchez is a big man out of Puerto Rico who played for Idaho of the NBDL in 2006-07 and 2007-08.  He was a poor rebounder for his size but could actually shoot the three.  His career D-League stats:  10.1 ppg, .414 FG%, .386 3-FG%, 3.6 RPG in 25.1 MPG, 11.8 PER.  He is currently playing in Argentina.

Milwaukee Bucks

3/13    Traded Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut to Golden State for Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown

The Bucks very much want to sneak past the Knicks and get into the playoffs and Bogut’s health is shaky.  So, flipping Bogut for a talent infusion short term makes some sense.  But what does Ellis do for the Bucks?  The logic from the Bucks’ side is that Ellis will be better than Shaun Livingston and Udoh and Brown will provide some defense to.  I don’t see it.  Milwaukee is 11th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency.  The Bucks also already have a high-volume, low-efficiency guard in Brandon Jennings.  Jennings has taken 20% of the Bucks’ shots this year and Ellis took 21% of the Warriors shots so far.  Something has to give.  Whether Jennings or Ellis gets the extra shots will likely not improve either player’s middling efficiency either as they are both gunners.  We can’t know what the options were if the Bucks were hell bent in trading Bogut right now but getting Ellis doesn’t seem to fit a team need and probably won’t be enough to get them in the playoffs this season unless New York or Boston implodes.

New Jersey Nets

3/8    Signed Gerald Green to a second 10-day contract

3/14  Traded Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a conditional first-round pick to Portland for Gerald Wallace

3/15  Signed Jerry Smith to a 10-day contract

First let’s talk about Dwight Howard.  His dance with the Magic the last few weeks has been a bit bizarre, almost like watching a failing marriage.  Dysfunction is all around.  Orlando begs for one more chance and Howard, who has likely resolved to bolt town, has agreed to give the Magic one more chance, if only to assuage his conscience.  But Orlando still isn’t a title contender and they probably can’t improve because they are locked into the salaries of Glen Davis, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu.  Howard still refuses to sign an extension and has really only reset the speculation deadline another year.  Does he think Magic fans will suddenly love him for delaying the decision to bolt until 2013?  They will still boo him when he comes back in another uniform.

Howard for, his part,  previously seemed to be angling to avoid a trade by telling reporters he shouldn’t be traded because he might think about returning, in what looked like a blatant attempt to let the Nets keep their assets and then sign him after the season.  Howard should’ve just kept quiet on everything, refused to sign the waiver of his free agency option and see if Orlando had the cojones to keep him for a potential playoff run this season.  It must also be noted that Howard doesn’t owe the Magic any loyalty.  They may have drafted him but it was with the first friggin pick!  It’s not like they took a shot on some undrafted free agent.  If Howard had sucked, he would not have been given a max contract and he would not be in Orlando.  In short, this entire episode is very silly.  There are no good guys or bad guys here.  The NBA is a business and the chips will ultimately fall where they will but getting there has given us a soap opera.

As for the Nets’ angle, it’s not clear what Wallace does for them.  He obviously improves the team from “bad” to “better but still bad.”  The mission now may be to try to make a playoff run to keep Deron Williams happy until Dwight Howard might be available next year.  If not, Wallace’s presence on the team makes little sense, since the Nets are better off just tanking the season and hoping to win the lottery instead of seeking the opportunity of being a speed bump for Chicago or Miami in the playoffs.  The word may be that Williams specifically requested that the Nets bring in Wallace but the impact will be limited for now.

New Orleans Hornets

3/9    Signed Jeff Foote to a 10-day contract

With all the talk of Jeremy Lin, Foote is another ivy leaguer in the NBA (Cornell).  Foote is a seven-footer and will fill space.  Incidentally, he is the first Cornell NBAers since Ed Peterson in 1951.  Just in case you are curious, here is the last NBAer from each of the Ivies:

-Brown: Mo Mahoney, 1953-54

-Columbia:  Jim McMillian, 1971-79

-Cornell:  Jeff Foote, 2011-present

-Dartmouth:  James Blackwell, 1994-95

-Harvard: Jeremy Lin, 2010-present

-Penn:  Matt Maloney, 1997-2003

-Princeton:  Steve Goodrich, 2001-02

-Yale: Chris Dudley, 1988-2003

New York Knicks

3/13    Announced resignation of coach Mike D’Antoni and named Mike Woodson interim coach

D’Antoni’s “resignation” was inevitable before Jeremy Lin came to town.  Linsanity seemed to have saved D’Antoni but a quick losing streak plus an unhappy Carmelo Anthony ended those good feelings rather quickly.  D’Antoni has been a decent coach in New York and the firing was probably unfair, as the losing streak came on a tough road trip (plus one home game against Philly) where the best realistic outcome would’ve been 2-5 or 3-4.  Nor was it the offense’s fault that Melo and Amare Stoudemire have been bad this year.  Both players look diminished this season, having nothing to do with the point guard play.  Most troubling was the large volume of anonymous complaints that were obviously planted by upper management (who have wanted to dump D’Antoni since his hirer Donnie Walsh bolted town) and Melo’s people (who seem to blame D’Antoni for Melo’s inability to shoot well).  D’Antoni is probably glad to get his cash and leave town.

As for Woodson, he’s had three impressive wins so far.  The New York tabloids were screaming that Woodson wants to pull back Lin and play Baron Davis (who has been horrible this season so far).  Woodson was a solid, if unimaginative coach, in Atlanta and Davis might fit his profile.  Even so, management sees Lin’s value to fans and there is no way they will tolerate benching him for Baron (nor should they based upon Lin’s play so far).  Woodson also has a pretty good shot of coming back next year if the team makes the playoffs, as ownership has stuck with coaches until things got really ugly.

Philadelphia 76ers

3/14    Traded draft rights to Ricky Sanchez to Memphis for Sam Young

Young is a decent scorer but a terrible passer for a guard.  Philly has too many guards already and Louis Williams is the designated scorer off the bench already.  Young is merely free talent in case someone gets hurt.

Portland Trailblazers

3/14    Fired coach Nate McMillan and named Kaleb Canales interim coach

3/14    Waived Greg Oden and Chris Johnson

3/14    Traded Gerald Wallace to New Jersey for Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a conditional first-round pick

3/15    Traded Marcus Camby to Houston for Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet and a second-round pick

It’s over.  Looking back, Portland looked like the most promising team in the West four years ago but injuries have totally killed that.  McMillan is a solid coach but the players have totally stopped responding to him and it is time to retool.  The Blazers are not going to bottom out too terribly since LaMarcus Aldridge will keep the team respectable but they will be in the lottery this year.  Kudos for also nabbing a potential lottery pick from the Nets for Wallace (the Nets only keep it the pick is in the top 3).  They will have to get some talent back from two mid-lottery picks to start the rebuild.

The other story is that Oden’s also gone.  It is not clear if he will ever play again but cutting ties may be the healthiest thing for all sides.  Oden has not played an NBA game since December 2009 and no one knows when he’ll play again.  If it makes him feel better, Oden can look at Sam Bowie, who was also injured in his second season  (1985-86) and was not able to return to the NBA full-time until 1989-90 but had a relatively healthy six-year run thereafter.

San Antonio Spurs

3/14    Traded T.J. Ford, Richard Jefferson and a conditional first-round pick to Golden State for Stephen Jackson

3/16    Signed Eric Dawson to a second 10-day contract

As mentioned above, the Spurs saved $11 million in flipping RJ for Jackson.  Jackson maybe a little “off” but he is about as good as Jefferson and the $11 million savings easily offsets Jax’s erratic nature.

Toronto Raptors

3/14    Waived Anthony Carter

3/14    Traded Leandrinho Barbosa to Indiana for a second-round pick

Toronto is in full punt mode and was happy to send away Barbosa to save a bit of payroll.  Not the most exciting thing for fans but the accountants are thrilled.

Washington Wizards

3/15    In a three-team traded, Washington traded Ronny Turiaf and JaVale McGee to Denver and Nick Young to L.A. Clippers for Nene from Denver and Brian Cook and a 2015 second-round pick from the L.A. Clippers

The Wiz got a nice close up look at McGee for a few years and they seem convinced that it wasn’t going to work.  Nene is not a bad return for him too.  The question about Nene though is whether a 29-year old forward makes sense on a team that is in the early stages of rebuilding.  Will Nene still be above-average when/if the Wiz put it together in a year or two?  It is possible because John Wall is a pretty nice starting point for any rebuild.  Still, Nene is entering his 30s and if Wall is injured or the Wiz don’t find a little more talent (the roster is pretty bereft besides Wall and Nene right now), Nene might not be tradable in a few years.  The counterargument is that Nene brings effort every night and his presence should be enough to make the team more respectable and now the Wiz must develop Jan Vesely and get another good player in the draft.  Not a terrible plan but I am a bit cynical given the Wiz’s failure to make the right decisions in the past.

2/20    Signed Erick Dampier to a second 10-day contract

3/1      Signed Erick Dampier for the remainder of the season

With Jason Collins having injury problems and a general lack of big bodies in Atlanta, the Hawks have decided to try to squeeze a little value out of Dampier.  Dampier looks close to done as an NBA player, unless you want to use him for short spurts.  Atlanta seems to recognize this and he doesn’t get more than 6 mpg so far.  Just for fun, here’s is Dampier’s per/36 minute production versus the similarly talented Collins this season:

-Collins: 3.4 pts, 1.3 FGM/4.2 FGA (.313 FG%), 5.5 rebs, 0.8 assts, 0.8 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.6 TOs, 3.7 fls, 2.3 PER

-Dampier: 1.7 pts, 0.9 FGM/5.1 FGA (.167 FG%), 12.9 rebs, 2.6 assts, 0.9 stls, 0.9 blks, 0.9 TOs, 2.6 fls, 8.5 PER

There you have it, Dampier, even shooting 17% from the field, does a bit more on the court than Collins.  Neither player is asked to do much more than muscle big men and stay in the way on defense.  Collins does get some extra credit for his work on Dwight Howard, though you’ d be hard pressed to see his work actually help stat-wise.  Collins’ plus/minus is a team low -11.8 this year and Dampier is a respectable +7.8 (both in limited minutes obviously). 

Cleveland Cavaliers

2/21    Signed Manny Harris to a 10-day contract

3/2      Signed Manny Harris to a second 10-day contract

Harris is a good athlete and actually got some burn with Cleveland last year.  He does many things well (boarding, passing) but alas shooting has been a problem.  At 22, he certainly is a candidate to improve and the Cavs rightly are letting him hang around in hopes that he might develop into a cheap shooting guard solution for the future.

Los Angeles Clippers

2/27    Signed Bobby Simmons to a 10-day contract

Hard to believe that Simmons is only 31.  His nice year with the Clipps (2004-05) that led to the big Milwaukee contract feels like 20 years ago.  Simmons hasn’t been an NBA regular since 2008-09 with the Nets.  As a player, Simmons’ never quite played as well as he did in that one career year when he he shot well, boarded and was a nice all-around player (putting up a solid 16 PER).  He fell off from that career year and hasn’t been able to do much since.  I question whether Simmons is the best bench option on a team that has a chance to really make a run in the playoffs.  He hasn’t been as bad as Brian Cook or Ryan Gomes but a little imagination might’ve yielded something better.

Finally, Basketball-Reference.com estimates that Simmons has made about $49 million in his NBA career.  What a country!

Miami Heat

2/28    Signed Mickell Gladness to a second 10-day contract

Gladness is a a more extreme version of Joel Anthony, an undersized big man who can rebound and block shots but has almost no other skills.  Gladness blocked tons of shots in college at Alabama A&M and swatted almost four blocks per 36 minutes in the NBDL, yet he was not able to get much playing time (15 mpg) in the minors because of an utter inability to score.  Such a raw player probably can’t play a role on a title contender at this point.  Clearly, the Heat are a candidate for a vet like Rasheed Wallace to come in and offer some decent minutes come playoff time.

New Jersey Nets

2/27    Signed Gerald Green to a 10-day contract

In desperate need of depth, the Nets have turned to former first round washout Green.  Green was a superior athlete coming out of high school but never could quite stick.  His stats from the early years were not terrible for a high schooler.  Still, he was too raw for most teams and he left the NBA in 2009-10 to play in Russia and China.  At 26, he might still be a viable role player in the NBA.

In case you are wondering, Green is not actually the biggest washout of the 2005 draft.  Martell Webster didn’t go abroad but has basically been the same undeveloped athlete that Green is.  Quite a few first-rounder have actually played less in the NBA than Green.  Here is the list of fewest NBA games played but first-rounders from the 2005 Draft:

Fewest NBA Games for 2005 First Rounders through 3/8/12

-Fran Vasquez, 0 (11th overall)

-Yaroslav Korolev, 34 (12th overall)

-Wayne Simien, 51 (29th overall)

-Sean May, 119 (13th overall)

-Ian Mahinmi, 125 (28th overall)

-Gerald Green, 186 (18th overall)

Of this group trailing Green, only Mahinmi (who spent time abroad and in the NBDL) is likely to catch Green.  Korolev and Simien have been out of the NBA since 2007 and May’s injuries probably have ended his career.  As for Vasquez, he was an Otis Smith special, who was drafted without checking to see if he wanted to actually come over to the NBA to play.  Vasquez may come to the NBA someday but he is already 28 and his numbers look solid enough this year (8.1  ppg, .653 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg in 17.1 mpg) but he is no star.  This busted pick could’ve been Danny Granger or David Lee, which might’ve made a big difference in Orlando keeping Dwight Howard now.

New Orleans Hornets

2/27    Signed Solomon Jones to a second 10-day contract

Generic filler for a generic team.  Jones isn’t anything special but is competent enough.  He actually may stand to be getting some real playing time if the Hornets trade Chris Kaman and Emeka Okafor doesn’t come back from injuries.  Jones won’t be a star but if he plays okay, he could be looking at a shot at yearly contracts, instead of 10-day deals.

New York Knicks

2/16    Waived Renaldo Balkman and signed J.R. Smith

Smith is truly a weird player.  An amazing athlete whose stats look quite efficient on paper but when you watch him, Smith looks like a little bit more…umm…undisciplined.  Smith hasn’t played well so far but, if he puts up his usual stats, he should fill a serious need, as the Knicks have been unnaturally bad from three this year.

The Knicks are currently .309% from three (27th in the NBA).  This is even more astounding because that includes Steve Novak is shooting .477% from three.  Take him out of the equation, and the rest of the team is 209-748 from three (.279%), despite the fact that they are fourth in the NBA in attempts.  To truly gety a sense of this problem, check the individual breakdowns from three:

-Steve Novak, 62-130 (.477%) (career. 429%)

-Bill Walker, 36-112 (.321%) (career .380%)

-Carmelo Anthony, 33-108 (.306%) (career .319%)

-Toney Douglas, 24-102 (.235%) (career .356%)

-Landry Fields, 23-86 (.267%) (career .357%)

-Iman Shumpert, 23-86 (.267%) (career .267%)

-Mike Bibby, 14-53 (.264%) (career .379%)

-Jeremy Lin, 17-52 (.327%) (career. 316%)

-Josh Harrelson, 16-47 (.340%) (career .340%)

-J.R. Smith, 10-37 (.270%) (career .369%)

-Amare Stoudemire, 5-20 (.250%) (career. 246%)

-Baron Davis, 3-20 (.150%) (career .320%)

-Jared Jeffries, 3-15 (.200%) (career .253%)

So, the number of Knicks shooting way below career three numbers is astounding.  It’s not clear if this is a fluke or whether there is some sort of problem with the offensive design.  Given Mike D’Antoni’s past success in this area, you have to think this is one big fluke for Walker, Douglas, Fields, and Smith (Bibby is probably just done).  One would have to think that this bad luck will eventually even out and the Knicks will get some sort of dead cat bounce improvement here.

In case you were curious, the last time a team shot under 30% from three was the awful 2002-03 Nuggets, who were 17-65, who had no Novak to raise the average.  That Denver team was built to lose but shot a shockingly bad .278% from three.  The most frequent thee-point shooter was legendary Nikoloz Tskitishvili (37-152 for .243%).  Only two frequent shooters shot better than 30%: Shammond Williams was 37-102 (.363%) and Chris Whitney was 43-128 (.336%).

Portland Trailblazers

2/27    Waived Armon Johnson and signed Joel Przybilla

Why bring back Przybilla?  The team is below average in overall rebounds (18th), particularly on the offensive glass (20th).  That isn’t the whole story though.  Last season, the Blazers actually had the lowest amount of total defensive rebounds but their pace was the slowest in the NBA and they still were 4th in the NBA in offensive rebounds.  In 2011-12, Portland is about average in pace but the offensive boards have plummeted.  To put it this in prorated terms, the 2010-11 grabbed .295% of offensive rebounds and .720% of defensive rebounds.  This season, the offensive boards are down to .258% but defensive boards are actually up to .737%.  Przybilla is not an incredible force on the offensive glass but he has been pretty good historically.  Combined that with the fact that he’ll be the only seven-footer on the roster and Przybilla’s does bring some skills to the team that it lacks.

Sacramento Kings

3/5    Exercised the option of Head Coach Keith Smart for 2012-13

It’s very hard, from the outside, to discern how to evaluate a coach on a team that is bad.  Few coaches could make this group competitive now.  Smart has earned another year by being cheap to pay and by getting some progress out of DeMarcus Cousins.  The other feather in Smart’s cap is finding Isaiah Thomas and turning him into a pretty good looking point guard.  I figured that Smart might’ve gotten some heat for bailing on first-rounder Jimmer Fredette to get Thomas playing time but pragmatism has won out for now.  This is Smart’s third shot as an interim coach and it’s nice to see him finally get a second year out of it.

-The greatest player of All-Time has had some All-Star clunkers.  MJ was amazing in most of his All-Star appearances in the 1980s (except the famous “Freeze Out” game his rookie season).  In the 1990s, Jordan had some weak shooting games: 10-25 in 1991, 10-25 in 1993, and 5-14 in 1997.  Jordan also probably had the worst high volume shooting All-Star game since 1980 in his final All-Star game, going 9-27 from the field and notching an ugly 20 points in 2003.  Jordan also did not really shot many threes in All-Star play (3-11 in 13 All-Star games).

-James Worthy played in seven All-Star games and was pretty good in his first two but had a really poor two-year stretch in 1990 and 1991, where he shot 4-22.

-The general feeling seems to be that all players shoot as much as possible when they get in the games but some big guys have other roles ingrained in them  James Donaldson and Mark Eaton each made exactly one All-Star game (both were rebounders and decidedly not scorers).  Neither player took a shot from the field, though Donaldson did hit two free throws.  Chris Gatling, on the other hand, took eight shots in 12 minutes in his only All-Star game (though he missed seven of them).

-The most uninspiring under the radar All-Star performance goes to Joe Johnson in 2009.  He shot 0-4 in 21 minutes and had five turnovers and did not rack up any others stats.  You would think an assist or steal would happen by accident when you play 20 minutes with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  Go figure.

-Because everyone is shooting so much, the amount of turnovers is pretty low for most All-Star players.  In fact, most players (even point guards) stay under five turnovers in an All-Star game.  The player who had the most high turnover games was Magic Johnson.  Magic was almost always under four turnovers a game in his regular season but he took some serious chances in the All-Star games, having four games with at least seven turnovers (including his final comeback All-Star game in 1992, when he won MVP).

-Terry Cummings was a surprisingly high volume shooter in the 1985 All-Star game, taking 17 shots in 16 minutes and leading all All-Stars in shots on a team with Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, and Bernard King.  Cummings shot 7-17 and had 17 points and seven boards that day.

-Speaking of shots, a few other surprising shot leaders: Robert Parish in 1981, Gus Williams in 1982, Eddie Jones in 1998, and Jamaal Magloire in 2004.

-I’m not sure who is less enthused about the All-Star game than Rasheed Wallace.  He appeared in four games and shot 6-24 overall and 3-18 in the final three games, where he mostly just chucked threes poorly (1-10 from three in those three games).

2.    A Quick Comment on Lin-Sanity: We would be remiss if we didn’t say a word about Jeremy Lin’s surprising emergence as an All-Star point guard this month.  Our site has had a fair amount of attention and traffic lately because our own Ed Weiland predicted good things for Lin two years ago.  Obviously, no one saw Lin scoring 25 ppg and he probably isn’t quite that good but he looks like a legit above-average NBA point guard.  Lin’s emergence is due to a confluence of factors including playing in Mike D’Antoni’s point guard favorable system (second in the NBA in pace) with no other scorers available (while Anthony and Stoudemire were out) and, of course, his own talent.  Lin, though, should not be stereotyped as a marginal athlete getting by on his Harvard smarts.  Lin is a serious athlete and his style of play has much more in common with Russell Westbrook than with Mark Price or John Stockton.

Going forward, Lin’s scoring will come down a bit but the Knicks have a bona fide player to pair with Carmelo Anthony and New York can move up the playoff ladder Philly or Atlanta falter.  Oddly, the Knicks have registered as a very good defensive team (fifth) and a poor offensive team (23rd) so far this year.  If Lin and J.R. Smith help the previously terrible backcourt score, while also keeping near this defensive efficiency, the Knicks could look interesting going forward.  The weak offense also shows that there are more than enough shots to go around for Lin and Anthony and any implications by the press to the contrary really have no substance to them.  Finally, great work by Ed, again, predicting the biggest story of the decade a few years before it happened.

3.    The Shrinking Offense of J-Kidd: It has often been commented that players retreat to their core talents over time.  For example, Dennis Rodman, as a younger player, defended, rebounded, and even scored a little bit. Over time, as he lost some athleticism, Rodman’s secondary abilities faded away and he lost the ability to score at all and pretty much could only rebound by the end.  It happens to most players after enough time.

Currently, Jason Kidd seems to have lost quite a few of his other abilities.  At one time, Kidd could get to the rim, averaging almost five free throws per-36 minutes in his prime with the Nets.  Kidd can still board and pass (if not as well) but the ability to get to the rim on offense has virtually disappeared.  Kidd’s only offense consists of the three-point shot.  He is averaging 6.7 shots per 36 minutes and 5.7 of those are three point shots.  Kidd also getting only 0.5 free throws per-36 minutes.  So, all Kidd can do now is shoot threes on offense.  More problematic is that Kidd no longer can hit the shot (.299% from three this year and a disgusting .326 from the field overall).  He can likely still shoot the three-point shot pretty well but the scouting report probably is to not leave Kidd or give him any room to drive (because he hasn’t done so far this year).  If it is any solace to Mavs fans, Kidd shot mostly threes last year too and was better but still not that great (.361% from the field and .340% from three) and he took off in the playoffs, hitting 43-115 (.374%) from three in 21 playoff games.  Hopefully, Kidd can get a little more balance to his offensive game but if he can’t, it is probably time to use him as a back up and look for a new point in Dallas.