7/18    Matched offer tendered to Kyle Lowry

7/20    Signed Brad Miller

7/28    Traded David Andersen and cash to Toronto for a 2015 protected second-round pick

8/12    In a four-team trade, New Jersey traded Courtney Lee to Houston for Troy Murphy from Indiana, who acquired Darren Collison and James Posey from New Orleans, who acquired Trevor Ariza from Houston

In the four-team swaperoo, the Rockets have essentially dumped one good youngster with offensive issues in Trevor Ariza for another in Courtney Lee.  The only real differences are position and contract.  Ariza is still only 25 but just couldn’t score at all, despite ample opportunity to do so in Houston.  Lee also had his own scoring issues (though not as bad as Ariza) but both players are way too young to assume that their offensive games won’t develop.  It seems, though, that this trade was more about dumping Ariza (who has a long term deal) than acquiring Lee.  Indeed, the Rockets already have a long-term two guard solution with Kevin Martin and, at best, Lee will be a nice role player/third guard.  At small forward, the Rockets were not loaded (Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries are in the last years of their respective contracts and Chase Budinger looked pretty good but is not a 35-40 mpg player yet).  Even if the deal was more about buyer’s remorse with Ariza, getting cap room and a decent young player is a worthwhile decision for Houston.

Indiana Pacers

8/12    In a four-team trade, New Jersey traded Courtney Lee to Houston for Troy Murphy from Indiana, who acquired Darren Collison and James Posey from New Orleans, who acquired Trevor Ariza from Houston

For the Pacers, they are starting over, again, at the point.  Collison had a very nice first season in the NBA and the Pacers had struggled filling the point guard.  At his current level of play, Collison is better than any of the Pacers’ other options.  He will also be a nice fit for Jim O’Brien’s three-happy offense.  The offense was terrible at the point where they were terrible from distance.  Here’s a quick breakdown of the point shooting from three:

Earl Watson: 53-184, .288%

A.J. Price: 60-174, .345%

T.J. Ford: 8-50, .160%

The interesting question is how much upside Collison has.  Given his age and ability, it is not impossible that Collison could develop into a top-10 point in a few years.

As for the outgoing players, the Pacers will miss Murphy but he is 30 and was very unlikely to be part of the next good Pacer team.  The fact that they could flip him for a good young player is the best deal we’ve seen from Larry Bird so far.  This doesn’t make the Pacers a playoff team but they now have a few building blocks to work with for the future, which is much better than you could say the last few years.

Los Angeles Clippers

7/18    Re-signed Craig Smith

7/28    Re-signed Rasual Butler

Butler is generic filler but Smith is a pretty good young player with some legit upside.  On the Clipps, he is slated to back up Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman but Smith could be a decent starter in the right situation.  Smith is no star but has ability in the Lawrence Funderburke/Othella Harrington-mode (which I mean as a compliment).  One of these years, Smith will convince team to give him a relatively decent long term deal.  For now, he stuck working year-to-year.

Los Angeles Lakers

7/14    Re-signed Derek Fisher

7/22    Signed Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff

8/2      Re-signed head coach Phil Jackson

8/11    Re-signed Shannon Brown

I know Fisher had his moments in the playoffs but the numbers don’t lie here.  His game is seriously declining.  I find it hard to believe that he can be useful for more than another year, let alone two years on top of that (the contract is for two years plus a player’s option).  Fish is 36 and he doesn’t really shoot the three that well (35%), can’t get to the basket, and isn’t that fast either.  I understand that Fisher’s history in L.A. has built up a ton of goodwill and that the Heat were supposedly going to offer a three-year deal.  So, if paying Fisher $3.5 million for three years makes Kobe and the fans happy, it’s not the worst move I’ve seen.  It’s also not impossible that Fisher can get his shooting closer to his career levels (37-40%) next season but it’s more likely that the Lakers have flushed $7-10 million down the toilet.

As a side note, I wondered if Fisher in 2009-10 had the lowest PER of any championship starter.  Fisher racked up a less than great 9.3 PER (remember a PER of 15.0 is about average).  Here’s a rundown of the worst PERs for championship team starters since 1981-82 when games started were first kept as a stat (minimum 40 games started):

1981-82 Lakers: Kurt Rambis, 12.8

1982-83 76ers: Marc Iavaroni, 7.3

1983-84 Celtics: Dennis Johnson, 12.8

1984-85 Lakers: Kurt Rambis, 12.7

1985-86 Celtics: no starters under 13.0

1986-87 Lakers: no starters under 13.0

1987-88 Lakers: no starters under 13.0

1988-89 Pistons: Rick Mahorn, 12.1

1990-91 Bulls: Bill Cartwright, 11.5

1991-92 Bulls: Bill Cartwright, 10.9

John Paxson, 10.9

1992-93 Bulls: Bill Cartwright, 8.3

1993-94 Rockets: Vernon Maxwell, 12.5

1994-95 Rockets: Vernon Maxwell, 11.9

1995-96 Bulls: Luc Longley, 11.9

1996-97 Bulls: no starters under 13.0

1997-98 Bulls: Dennis Rodman, 12.4

1998-99 Spurs: Sean Elliott, 12.6

1999-00 Lakers: A.C. Green 11.2

2000-01 Lakers: Ron Harper, 12.5

2001-02 Lakers: Rick Fox 11.3

Lindsey Hunter, 9.4

2002-03 Spurs: Bruce Bowen, 9.1

2003-04 Pistons: no starters under 13.0

2004-05 Spurs: Rasho Nesterovic, 12.0

Bruce Bowen, 9.5

2005-06 Heat: James Posey, 9.8

2006-07 Spurs: Fabricio Oberto, 11.9

Francisco Elson, 11.2

2007-08 Celtics: no starters under 13.0

2008-09 Lakers: no starters under 13.0

2009-10 Lakers:  Ron Artest, 12.1

Derek Fisher, 9.3

So here are some observations:

-Fisher is bad but we find a few worse in Iavaroni at the bottom (who was only a nominal starter because Bobby Jones played the bulk of power forward minutes), Cartwright, and Bowen.

-There are a ton of starters near Fisher’s poor 2009-10 mark, so it’s not rare a feat for title team to have such a punchless starter.  The presence of so many players with PERs under 10.0 maybe an argument that PER doesn’t do justice for role players who play with offensive monsters.  PER assesses a player’s overall game but people like Bowen weren’t really asked to score or board because the team was plenty good in those areas, making him more valuable in context than he would seem in the abstract.  With Fisher, this theory doesn’t really hold water because he has been in this role for a while and never really struggled as much as he did in 2009-10.

-Quite a few of the deep 1980s teams didn’t have a single starter with a PER under 13.0.  I don’t necessarily take this as evidence that the 1980s teams were better or deeper than other teams but they were certainly more balanced offensively.

Memphis Grizzlies

8/5    Signed Acie Law

Law crapped out of Atlanta so quickly that people almost haven’t noticed how much of a bust he was.  Since being let go from the Hawks, Law spent 2009-10 bouncing around three different teams.  He showed enough last year (particularly with Golden State) to support the notion that he is an NBA guard.  He may not be a starter or a primary back up but as a fourth guard he might be okay.

Miami Heat

7/15    Signed Mike Miller

7/16    Re-signed Joel Anthony

7/17    Signed Zydrunas Ilgauskas

7/19    Re-signed Jamaal Magloire

7/20    Signed Juwan Howard

7/22    Re-signed Carlos Arroyo

7/27    Re-signed Shavlik Randolph

7/28    Re-signed Kenny Hasbrouck

8/4      Signed Eddie House

First, signing shooters like Miller and House will obviously fit very well with the Heat’s ball handlers.  The front court signings show that this is not a typical Pat Riley team.  By luck or design, championship contender Riley teams always had an All-Star level center (Kareem, Ewing, Mourning, Shaq).  Now, he has a pile of big bodies to foul with, kind of like Phil Jackson did with his three headed monster combo with the Bulls (remember Luc Wenningdue?).  It won’t be pretty but Miami has no choice but to throw Anthony, Ilgauskas, and Magloire at Dwight Howard.  This could be a problem for the Heat, since Ilgauskas couldn’t guard Howard two years ago and now Ilaguskas looks a lot older.  The hope, I assume, is that Anthony continues to develop into a decent defensive stopper but center is a position that could very well use an upgrade during the season.

Milwaukee Bucks

7/18    Signed Keyon Dooling

Dooling will be a nice change of pace guard for the Bucks, assuming he can shoot well enough to get solid minutes.  Scott Skiles is likely to take a shine to Dooling as a defender but there won’t be a ton of minutes available behind Brandon Jennings.

Minnesota Timberwolves

7/14    Traded Al Jefferson to Utah for Kosta Koufos, a protected 2011 first-round pick and another future protected first-round pick

7/21    Signed Luke Ridnour

7/26    Traded Ryan Hollins, Ramons Sessions, and a future second-round draft pick to Cleveland for Delonte West and Sebastian Telfair

7/28    Signed Nikola Pekovic

8/3      Waived Delonte West

8/9      Signed Anthony Tolliver

The evidence is continuing to mount that David Kahn is not making great decisions.  Jefferson didn’t play great by his own standards and didn’t mesh with Kevin Love but if all you can get for Jefferson is Koufos and a few pick from a good team, you may as well  keep him and hope a better deal pops up later.  Is it really such a big deal to have extra power forwards when having scores of extra point guards wasn’t a big deal?  The Wolves have traded a 20 ppg power forward for nothing and are left with Love (a good thing), Darko (not such a great thing), and Michael Beasley (a “who knows?” thing).  If anything, Kevin McHale is starting to look better by comparison.

New Jersey Nets

7/14    Named Billy King general manager and signed Jordan Farmar and Travis Outlaw

8/7      Signed Sean May

8/12     In a four-team trade, New Jersey traded Courtney Lee to Houston for Troy Murphy from Indiana, who acquired Darren Collison and James Posey from New Orleans, who acquired Trevor Ariza from Houston

While the Mikhail Prokhorov Era started on a positive note, it seems odd that a dynamic group would choose Billy King when Kevin Pritchard might have been available.  King had been mocked for some of his moves in Philly, with his main weakness being that he felt compelled to give long extensions to mediocre players, absolutely killing the cap room (Greg Buckner, Kenny Thomas, Willie Green).  On the plus side, he was not afraid to make big moves (getting Dikembe Mutombo and Chris Webber) and he did a great job trading Allen Iverson for a player who was actually better than AI in Andre Miller. The Webber move didn’t work and King struggled to find the right players to pair with Iverson, though admittedly that wasn’t actually an easy task.  No matter how you spin King’s time in Philly, even the most generous reading would not label him a hot candidate or someone that a dynamic new regime in Jersey would think of using to attract players and re-build the franchise.

But what’s done is done.  In all, King was more bad than good in Philly but he could do well in the right situation, as long as he can avoid his tendency to provide generous contracts to mid-level players.  It doesn’t bode well, however, that the signing of Outlaw to a way too long contract coincided with King’s arrival (seven years for Outlaw?).  This is somewhat counterbalanced by the Murphy trade.  Getting a solid starting power like Murphy is a perfectly acceptable way of re-balancing the roster with the necessary amount of competent forwards (those of us who watched Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, and Bobby Simmons know what I’m talking about).  Trading Lee was also acceptable too since he might be okay in the future but the Nets have plenty of decent athletic guards (Farmar and Morrow) and they did not have much up front.  I would not have hired King (in fact, I didn’t even think he should have been in the running) but with cash and an open roster, he might do a decent job.  The jury will be out for a little while.

New Orleans Hornets

7/15    Re-signed Aaron Gray

7/21    Named Dell Demps general manager

8/11    Traded Julian Wright to Toronto for Marco Belinelli

8/12     In a four-team trade, New Jersey traded Courtney Lee to Houston for Troy Murphy from Indiana, who acquired Darren Collison and James Posey from New Orleans, who acquired Trevor Ariza from Houston

In this four-team deal, almost everyone turned out okay.  The one team that I think did poorly was New Orleans.  Collison was a relatively hot commodity and they accepted Ariza, a decent player, primarily so that they could dumpi Posey’s crappy contract.  Ariza is a nice defender but his offensive game has looked really weak and, in fact, may not be much of an improvement over Posey.  Well, he’ll be an improvement over Posey but he won’t be enough of an improvement to justify the fact that contract is bigger (four years and $28 million left).  Sure Posey was awful last year but Ariza can’t shoot either and the Hornets have been burned by doubling down on tepid small forwards in the past (they had Posey, Peja Stojakovic, and Mo Peterson the last few years).  The better alternative would have been to trade a marketable commodity in Collison for a bona fide need and see if Posey could be bought out his contract (two years and $12 million).  The actual trade is not awful for New Orleans but it did not maximize its assets.

New York Knicks

8/6    Named Isiah Thomas consultant (the NBA later invalidated this transaction based upon a perceived conflict with Thomas’ NCAA position)

8/10  Signed Roger Mason

The brief return of Isiah was one of the more bizarre side stories of the summer.  If you are not a Knicks fan, there is an element of fun watching a truly bad GM attempt to rehab his image so quickly.  I’m trying to remember if there is a corollary for this attempt in sports or any other area of life.  Has someone so reviled tried to return to the public eye so soon thereafter?  Post-presidential politics is the first place I thought of by analogy.  Without making my own political judgments, I do remember that both Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter were considered to be poor presidents for different reasons after they left office (by most of the population).  Both were able to chip away at that perception with some segments of the population by being active and public after leaving office.  I’m not suggesting that Isiah will open up his own library or that he will go to North Korea to broker a hostage release but nothing is impossible in sports or politics.  That doesn’t mean it is a good idea in this case.  One thing is for sure, neither Nixon or Carter would’ve given Eddy Curry or Jerome James those crappy contracts that Isiah did.

Oklahoma City Thunder

7/21    Signed Royal Ivey

7/30    Waived Kyle Weaver

OKC’s focus on defense reached new levels when they signed the one backup point guard who might have been worse offensively than previous backup Kevin Ollie.  Like Ollie, Ivey can’t shoot but can defend and is known as a good teammate.  Sam Presti has decided that defense and hustle have more value than taking a shot at a player who might have a slim shot of developing into a useful regular.  I can’t argue with the strategy but I do find it an interesting trend for the Thunder in filling the roster spots and revealing of organizational priorities.

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7/14    Signed Josh Childress and traded him to Phoenix for a 2010 second-round pick

7/24    Signed Josh Powell

7/29    Re-signed Jason Collins

The Hawks flirted with Shaq but ultimately passed on him.  This gave Collins a shot to comeback as a third center.  It is hard to believe that Collins is only going to be 32, since he has always moved like he was 82.  Collins has very little left, basically designated to come in and use a couple fouls on big men in a pinch.  He’s probably not quite as bad offensively as he looked in 2009-10 (0.7 ppg, .348 FG%, and 0-2 from the line for the season) but how could he be that bad?  No doubt, Collins good nature has kept him around longer than most players with similar skill level would.

Boston Celtics

7/15    Re-signed Paul Pierce

7/19    Re-signed Nate Robinson

7/24    Re-signed Marquis Daniels

8/3      Signed Von Wafer

8/4      Signed Shaquille O’Neal

8/10    Waived Rasheed Wallace

The Celts are doubling down hoping for another title run.  In this case, the price isn’t too steep.  Robinson, Daniels, Wafer, and Shaq are all pretty useful and will make make less than $10 million combined next year.  Pierce’s deal is a bit rich (four years and $61 million).  He’ll be worth it for 2010-11 but it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll play when he hits his mid-30s.  Still, Pierce is a Celtic Emeritus and that combined with Boston’s immediate need to contend in 2010-11 makes the deal acceptable, despite the inevitable downside.

As for Shaq, his numbers look much better on paper than an objective observation of his play on the court for the Cavs.  O’Neal looked ponderously slow at times and totally useless in the running game.  Shaq can still help but there is a very good shot that his minutes will decline from a career low 23.4 mpg in 2009-10.  Some will surely decry this part of O’Neal’s career since it is worlds away from his “Most Dominating Man on the Planet” run.  Indeed, how many inner circle Hall of Famers had such a nomad phase?  This will be Shaq’s seventh team.  The only comparable situation is Moses Malone, who played with seven NBA teams (including two tours in Philly) and two ABA teams.

The funny thing is that Shaq doesn’t really get a bad rap for bouncing around teams much more often than the other greats.  While LeBron was rightfully criticized for his narcissistic television announcement when he signed with the Heat, you might recall that Shaq put the Magic through a similar ringer in the mid-1990s.  After the Lakers outbid Orlando in a huge back in forth negotiation in 1996, Shaq’s introductory press conference showed some of the same self-absorption that LeBron’s recent show did.  When asked about the bidding process at the press conference, Shaq used the opportunity to plug his endorsers and look like a hypocrite, telling the reporters:  “I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money.  I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.”   O’Neal also took the time to criticize Orlando, coach Brian Hill, and Anfernee Hardaway for no apparent reason.  But that’s Shaq.  Even when he’s coming off as a less than genuine or nice, he just has a likability that other players do not, no matter what he actually does or says.

Charlotte Bobcats

7/20    Signed Shaun Livingston

7/22    Signed Dominic McGuire

Fun facts about Livingston:

-Despite being a high Lottery pick back in 2004, he’s still only 24

-Livingston still can’t shoot the three (6-32 for his career)

-His time with the Wizards last year was his best statistical run as a pro.

-There is reason to believe that the run is a bit fluky.  Most of Livingston’s rate stats were in line with his Clipper years but he somehow shot .535% from the field, while still being totally unable to shoot threes.  It’s highly unlikely he can sustain that rate of accuracy.

-Charlotte might not be the ideal location for Livingston.  Larry Brown is not known for his patience at the point.

In all, Livingston remains in the category of interesting player to take a flier on but still unlikely to totally pan out.

Chicago Bulls

7/19    Signed Ronnie Brewer

7/21    Traded a 2011 second-round pick to Golden State for C.J. Watson

7/24    Signed Kurt Thomas

8/11    Signed Keith Bogans

The Bulls went very defensive with this group of signings.  Brewer is the only one with any real upside.  He is still quite young (going to be 25 this season) and looked like a respectable player on Utah.  The only problem with Brewer is his biggest weakness, shooting threes (and shooting in general), was the Bulls’ biggest problem last year and may limit his playing time to bench player.

As for Bogans, he’s an older and worse version of Brewer.   Bogans is also coming his worst season to date.  He’s still only 30 but he won’t be playing much unless things go very wrong for the Bulls.

Cleveland Cavaliers

7/26    Traded Delonte West and Sebastian Telfair to Minnesota for Ryan Hollins, Ramon Sessions, and a future second-round draft pick

7/30    Signed Joey Graham

The post-LeBron hangover is going to be ugly but I like the Sessions’ move.  He is young and was a legitimately solid player before last year.  As in Minnesota, Sessions might not have a clear shot at playing time because another point is in town (in Minny it was Johnny Flynn and here it’s Mo Williams).  This is less of a problem in Cleveland because given the options at two-guard (Anthony Parker and Daniel Gibson), a Sessions/Williams  back court might be their best regular back court anyway.

Dallas Mavericks

7/14    Signed Ian Mahinmi

7/18    Re-signed Dirk Nowitzki

It was a pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Mavs would bring Dirk back.  The extension is big (four years and $60 million) and is a necessary step for the Mavs who are living for the here-and-now.  Dirk’s numbers have been steadily but slightly declining since his MVP peak a few years ago but he is still a star and should be an All-Star for most of the extension.

As a side note, Dirk is unquestionably the best player in Mav franchise history.  That got me wondering, how many other such players each franchise has on its rosters right now or even how many have a top ten player in franchise history.  When one considers statistical output, tenure, and accomplishments (i.e playoff success and awards), who are the best “franchise players” on each franchise right now?  When we play this game, remember that accomplishments are on a franchise level, so a good player who has declined might rank ahead of a younger player who been in town a short period of time.  For example, Paul Pierce, who has been a Celtic for a decade, beats KG for Boston, even though KG has been better for most of the last few years.  So here is our unscientific knee-jerk analysis by franchise of top ten franchise players currently on NBA rosters:

-Boston: Paul Pierce is the obvious answer (see above). On most other franchises, Pierce would be a top three player.   On Boston, however, Pierce is clearly below Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Bill Russell, and Larry Bird.  In addition, Bill Sharman, Jo Jo White, Sam Jones, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish all have arguments over Pierce (not to mention Boston favorites like Tommy Heinsohn and Dennis Johnson).   At best, Pierce is the fifth best Celtic ever and could rank as low as tenth.  I would put him seventh right now (behind Jones and McHale) with a shot of overtaking them if he ages well the next few years.

-New York: Absolutely no options at this point.  They hope Amare Stoudemire cracks the list in a few years.

-New Jersey: The Nets are not exactly a storied franchise but neither Brook Lopez nor Devin Harris are in the top ten yet.  If Lopez has one more good year, though, he’ll be close to the mix already (if we don’t count ABA years).

-Philadelphia: Andre Iguodala is definitely not in the top ten, though he’s been around for six years and is pretty good.  If he can log ten good years in Philly, he could stake a claim.

-Washington: Take away the gun play and the shoe dumps and Gilbert Arenas is plausibly within the Wizards’ top ten.  True, the Wiz haven’t had too many great ones over their long history but the only players clearly on top of Agent Zero are Wes Unseld, Elvin Hayes, Earl Monroe, and Gus Johnson.   Given Arenas’ problems, you could make a good argument that he ranks below good players who lasted a while and had no problems like Greg Ballard, Kevin Loughery, Phil Chenier, Walt Bellamy, Jeff Malone, and Antawn Jamison.   Then you have players who lasted short periods of time but were pretty effective but were injured or had their own personality issues (Rod Strickland, Jeff Ruland, Bernard King,  Chris Webber, Bobby Dandridge).  Arenas is probably in or around the back of the top ten, though I wouldn’t contest Wizards fans who think he doesn’t belong there because of all of his crap the last year or so.

-Miami: Yup, Dwyane Wade is the Heat’s best player already.  Alonzo Mourning was good but was hurt often enough that Wade has played nearly as many games in Miami, while also leading the team to a title and being a Hall of Fame guard.  It’ll be quite interesting to see where LeBron James fits into this list.

-Orlando: He’s not as good as Shaq was but the fact is that Dwight Howard has already played several more games in Orlando than O’Neal (or Tracy McGrady).  By hanging around town and dominating, Howard is number one by far.

-Atlanta: It’s still a little early to put Joe Johnson or Josh Smith on the list.  Check back in two years.

-Charlotte: Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor were close but Okafor has been traded and Wallace has continued to excel.

-Chicago: No one.  Derrick Rose should be their soon though.

-Cleveland: They had a pretty good player last year…the name escapes me but no one on the roster right now.

-Detroit: Both Ben Wallace and Rip Hamilton are near the tenth spot.  I would say that Wallace may get the nod since his talents were a bit harder to replace when they were in their primes.  The catch here is that Hamilton is still pretty good and could pass him.  Both are fringe top ten guys.

-Indiana: Danny Granger is already in the fifth or sixth slot and still rising.  He should be in the top five by the end of 2010-11.

-Milwaukee: Michael Redd is pretty done as a player but he is still on the roster (for $18 million next year!) and he had a nice run in the 2000s.   His longevity and consistency place him close to the fifth slot in franchise history.  Andrew Bogut is also ascending but needs a few more years.

-Toronto: It hasn’t been a great time for fans when Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani are in your franchise top ten.  But in Toronto, some of the names on the list include Morris Peterson, Alvin Williams, and Doug Christie.   In this context, Calderon is probably a top five talent (though he probably will be traded soon).

-Dallas: As mentioned above, Dirk is number one in Dallas history.

-Denver: Excluding ABA years, Carmelo is probably the second or third best Nugget behind Alex English and Dan Issel.  (David Thompson had a shorter NBA career in Denver and Carmelo hasn’t had the off court issues that Thompson did).    The Nuggets depth chart is pretty slim and Nene and Kenyon Martin have an argument to come in the weak end of the top ten, though I wouldn’t quite put them in.  Chauncey Billups is also relatively close.

-Houston: Hopefully, Yao Ming can overcome his foot issues.  As it stands, he’s in the five-to-ten range in Houston.

-Memphis: A very weak franchise.  Rudy Gay is already in the top three (behind Pau Gasol and Shareef Abdur-Rahim) and O.J. Mayo and Zach Randolph already have claims for the top ten.

-Minnesota: Give Kevin Love one more good season and he’s clearly in the top ten.

-New Orleans: Chris Paul is the best Hornet ever already.  David West is about seventh in the franchise and moving up.

-San Antonio: David Robinson has a strong argument but Tim Duncan is the best Spur ever.  Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are also both in the four-to-six range.

-Utah: Stockton and Malone rule the roost but Deron Williams is already passing everyone else.  Andrei Kirilenko is about sixth or seventh.

-Golden State: Combine a rich past with a pathetic present and you get no contenders on the current rosters.

-L.A. Clippers: Chris Kaman is much higher up the list than he deserves to be on most teams.  He’s eighth or ninth right now.

-L.A. Lakers: The age old question is how good Kobe Bryant is compared to the Laker greats.  At this point, he’s really close to the top.  I still think Magic Johnson is on top but Bryant is one good season from being the undisputed the champ.  (I know Shaq was better but Kobe already has played over 1,000 games as a Laker versus 514 for O’Neal).

-Oklahoma City: Give Kevin Durant a few years and he’ll be number one but the Sonics had enough very good players who played for a long time to knock KD back to about fifth so far.

-Phoenix: Another deep franchise but Steve Nash has a claim for the number one spot.  Nash is no worse than third Sun now (Alvan Adams, Walter Davis, Shawn Marion, and Kevin Johnson still were very good and had longer Sun careers).  Nash will be the undisputed number one within a year at this pace.

-Portland: Brandon Roy is excellent but he’s been injured and he really needs to accrue some more good years to crack this squad.  Roy is arguably in the eight-to-ten range now.

-Sacramento: No one here.  Way too soon to talk about Tyreke Evans.

So there you have it, most of the NBA has a player on its roster who is a franchise elite, though only five are arguably the best in franchise history.

Denver Nuggets

7/15    Re-signed Anthony Carter and signed Shelden Williams

7/15    Signed Al Harrington

Harrington will either be a nice bench player or a replacement if Denver trades Carmelo.  Speaking of Melo, what should be done about his prospective free agency?  The ideal for Denver would be to convince him to take an extension now.  He’s apparently refusing and the Nuggets’ best hope is to play out the season and hope to convince him to stay during the free agency period.  The Nuggets are not a young team outside of Anthony and if he really is going to leave, there is an argument that they should play out the season and risk his leaving and hope that they do well enough in the playoffs to either convince him to stay or to make enough cash that it’d be worth it anyway.

But the Nuggets should not be afraid to trade Anthony.  Remember, Anthony is quite good but he is a more of a scorer than an all-around star, closer to Dominique Wilkins as a player than the uberstars like Michael Jordan.  Hell, Anthony hasn’t quite done as much as Nique yet (Anthony’s best PER so far is 22. 2, while Nique broke that number seven times–MJ and LeBron are in another stratosphere).  Melo’s a great talent but not once in a generation and trading him will not wreck the franchise.

Having no insider knowledge on Anthony, it seems to me that they should not be afraid to trade or keep him.  Pragmatically, they must assess the key questions: (1)  how well they are playing and (2) how much they could get in trade for Anthony.  I don’t see the Nuggets likely as serious contenders and I don’t think Anthony is good enough that Denver should desperately load up on payroll like the Cavs did with LeBron in an attempt to convince Melo to stay.  So, the situation is quite fluid and Denver needs to keep a level head and react when the clouds clear in a few months.  If I had to guess, it seem most likely that some team will overbid for Anthony in the trade market and Denver won’t be good enough to resist the deal (Derrick Favors, Devin Harris,  and picks?).  Of course, George Karl is not know for wanting to give up his stars.  Given the Nuggets recent front office strife, it’ll be interesting to see if they play this one correctly.

Detroit Pistons

7/30    Re-signed Will Bynum

8/4      Re-signed Ben Wallace

8/16    Signed Tracy McGrady

Having watched T-Mac last year, it just didn’t look like his body could make it through an 82-game season.  The legs were not there and the athleticism was not what it was.  Hopefully, McGrady comes back with a little more than he did right off of rehab.  I’m not too optimistic and Detroit is a poor place to take a shot since they have a bunch of two guards already.

Since the 2009 article, we’ve seen even more bankruptcy filings by former big earners Derrick Coleman (reportedly earned $91 million in the NBA) and Antoine Walker ($108 million), as well long-retired vets like Rick Mahorn. Interestingly, we have heard the low lights of certain athletes but the stories never detailed the descent and the multiple bad decisions that it takes to blow millions as they were being made.  Rather, we only heard the lament after the filing of the bankruptcy petition.  More recently, we now have an active NBAer who may provide us with insight into the problems before we get to bankrupcy in Eddy Curry, who will make over $11 million next year (and has been paid over $57 million for his career so far).  Just a few months ago, he was whacked with non-payment of a loan, as well as a failure to pay a settlement on civil claim in Illinois.

We obviously can’t know exactly is going on behind the scenes but Curry has left a trail of litigation that gives a nice little window into his activities.  So let’s take a look at what we’ve got.  Remember, we don’t know what’s true or not but that the allegations are taken from court pleadings that we found online.  Here’s what we have with Curry:

-July 2008: Curry is sued by Jacob & Company Watches, Inc., a well-known jeweler for athletes and other celebrities.  According to the complaint, Curry purchased multiple pieces of jewelry for a total cost of $952,000 in 2005 but failed to pay off the full amounts, leaving a balance of $452.686.88.  The matter was settled in March 2009.  It is not clear what the settlement terms were but annexed to the motion papers was an e-mail exchange between the attorneys for the jeweler and Curry’s attorney that implied that Curry would pay the full amounts by November 2008.  Apparently, the money was not paid at that time and the jeweler moved for a default judgment against Curry in January 2009.  Presumably, this move finally convinced Curry to pay.

-In November 2008, another action was filed against Curry by a company called PSC Cur, LLC.  It is not clear what PSC does since the only document filed with the court was a judgment by a confession signed by Curry, attesting that he owed PSC $1.45 million dollars.

-In January 2009, Curry is sued by his chauffeur David Kuchinsky for $98,000 in back wages and expenses.  The complaint also had some salacious allegations that Curry sexually harassed and physically menaced.  In January 2010, the case was dismissed because there was apparently a mandatory arbitration agreement in the employment contract.  There is no record as to whether the arbitration has been resolved.

-A morass of litigation has arisen from a loan Curry was  given by a company called Allstar Capital, Inc. in February 2008.  While in Nevada, Curry was loaned $570,000 by Allstar.  The loan was to be repaid in slightly less than six months.  The interest rate was an incredibly high 84.36% per year and would increase to 89.36% if Curry failed to re-pay.  Nevada is one of the few states without usury laws (by comparison, Curry’s two main places of residence, Illinois and New York have usury limits of 9% and 16% respectively).  Allstar quickly obtained a judgment for $1.2 million in Nevada (plus continuing interest at the 89% number).

Since that time, Curry has sued Allstar and its principal Daniel Gordon, alleging that the contract should be voided because Gordon had lent the $570,000 by stealing the funds improperly from his wife.  The suit has been dismissed against Allstar but is still pending against Gordon, who also has a colorful past and pled guilty to criminal charges involving some illicit stock trading relating to the famous Enron meltdown in the early 2000s.

In the meantime, Allstar has executed on the judgment against Curry in New York.   Allstar sought to garnish wages from Curry to re-pay the money owed by at the rate of $75,000 per month.  Curry opposed the garnishment, claiming that such a large garnishment would create an undue hardship.  The dispute went into some details as to how NBA players are paid and where exactly their money goes.  Curry testified that of the $10.5 million he was to make for the 2009-10 season, half the salary is made in bi-monthly payments of $358,746.45 over the six-month regular season and the other half is paid in lump sum on July 1, 2010.

Curry further stated that much of his salary is pledged, garnished, or subject to other expenses.  Each pay check is garnished (through both judgments and taxes) in the amount of $207,007.06, netting Curry just under $275,000.  Curry argued that he had a load of expenses each month that made paying out $75,000 a month a burden.  Curry listed the following expenses:

-personal/household expenses: $30,000

-rent: $17,000

-payments to parents, sister, and father-in-law: $16,900

-cars: $2,900 for two range rovers plus $2,500 in insurance

-chef: $6,000

-mortgage on Illinois home: $40,000 (which is in foreclosure)

-childrens’ school tuition: $6,290

The items totaled $122,469.62 in obligations, leaving Curry with disposable income of about $150,000 per month.  Curry also apparently owes a good deal of cash to other creditors.  He stated that he owed $8.2 million to various creditors, notably $680,000 on his Illinois house’s mortgage (which has a negative equity value of $1,000,000 and is in foreclosure), $180,000 in attorneys fees, and $350,000 to fellow Chicagoan NBAer Juwan Howard.

-More recently, a Chicago judge issued a warrant for Curry’s arrest for failing to pay a civil settlement in a case where Curry had illegally had sexual relations with the plaintiff when she was 14 and he was 18. The case was settled for $660,000 but Curry been in arrears in the settlement payments to the tune of nearly $200,000.   His attorney in that case is the firm that he owes about $180,000 to and they had attempted to withdraw from the case for that reason earlier, though the court denied that application.  The article also mentions that Curry has filed a suit in Chicago against his former business manager seeking nearly $4 million.

If Curry represents the average NBA player in financial troubles, we can see that his problems stem from bad investments, irresponsible handling of affairs, overspending, and being taken advantage by vultures.  At this point, Curry should be able to put out most of these fires with the $11 million coming his way in 2010-11, assuming he gets his house in order.  But based upon the past record that seems unlikely.

Is there a way to protect some of these athletes from themselves?  It would’ve been pretty simple for Curry to have taken $100,000 per year in salary and put it in some annuity not to be touched for 20 years, thereby guaranteeing him a ton of cash for his golden years.  But the NBA can’t really legislate financial and personal common sense.  Hopefully, some players will look at all the players who have blown potential generations of fortunes and recognize that newfound wealth requires a professional to manage a complex financial estate.  This isn’t a problem unique to athletes.  Big money means big risk and all sorts of legal and tax issues that most people wouldn’t fully understand on their own either.

6/22    Traded Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric to Golden State for Corey Maggette and the 44th pick in the 2010 draft

6/25    Traded a 2012 second-round pick to New Jersey for Chris Douglas-Roberts

7/8      Re-signed John Salmons and signed Drew Gooden

Unquestionably, the Bucks have won the talent exchanges here.  Maggette is still a pretty good player but is owed about $30 million over the next three years, while Bell and Gadzuric will be pretty much gone after 2010-11 (Bell is owed $4 million in 2011-12).  So, Maggette is essentially a free agent pick up for the Bucks, giving them the extra scorer they need.  The only downsides with Maggette are injury concerns and his lack of defense, a weakness that does not always work with Scott Skiles teams.  Douglas-Roberts could also help in the scoring department but between Maggette and Salmons there isn’t much playing time left over for a lower budget scoring type.

The Gooden signing is also a nice talent move, though the contract terms appear a little long (five years and $32 million).  Like Maggette and CDR, Gooden will also scoring as his primary ability, challenging Skiles to assimilate a different kind of talent base to his core.  The addition of more scorers correctly identifies the right problems with the Bucks.  Even so, I don’t see the Bucks making a big jump forward.  At best, this will be a consolidation year to make sure the gains of 2009-10 carry forward.  It should be noted that consolidation is worthy goal since Skiles last three winning season were followed by struggles the following year:

-2000-01 Suns, 51-31:  Slipped to 25-26 the next season and Skiles was fired.

-2004-05 Bulls, 47-35:  Fell to 41-41 the next season

-2006-07 Bulls, 49-33:  Started out 9-16 the next season and was fired.

So, history indicates that Skiles is due for some regression.

Finally, this will be Gooden’s ninth NBA team already, putting him on a nice pace to eventually catch Tony Massenburg and Chucky Brown for playing for the most franchises.

Minnesota Timberwolves

6/24    Traded Ryan Gomes and the draft rights to Luke Babbit to Portland for Martell Webster

7/12    Traded 2011 and 2014 second-round picks to Miami for Michael Beasley; Re-signed Darko Milicic

The Darko signing is mystifying.  I know that the Wolves are excited about rehabbing Darko into a serviceable backup center but fundamentally he’s still not that good and it’s not clear there was a market for him in the NBA anyway.  Even if Darko outperforms the deal (four years and $20 million) this was a waste of salary space.  The Beasley acquisition, on the other hand, was a worthwhile move, since he was essentially dumped for nothing.  He’s only 21 and reminds me very much of Glenn Robinson, another big man guy who was really a perimeter scorer.  A front line of Beasley, Kevin Love, and Darko doesn’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s hearts but is not valueless.  While Love and Al Jefferson struggled to defend together, this front line also seems pretty soft.  In short, the Wolves will look different but will still be bad.

New Jersey Nets

6/25    Traded Chris Douglas-Roberts to Milwaukee for a 2012 second-round pick

6/28    Waived Keyon Dooling

6/29    Traded Yi Jianlian and cash to Washington for Quinton Ross

7/10    Signed Johan Petro and signed Anthony Morrow to an offer sheet; Traded a conditional second-round pick in 2011 and a player exception to Golden State to complete a sign-and-trade for Anthony Morrow

So this is what happens when you whiff on the big free agent signings…you get some seriously unfun consolation prizes.  Petro will defend but can’t do much else.   Morrow fills a serious shooting need for the Nets, who were terrible from the perimeter. Outlaw is a wild card, who may add some scoring but the terms of the deal (five years and $7 million) are ridiculous for a guy who missed over half the season last year.  In all, this is not a great haul but acceptable given the lack of depth the Nets suffered last year.  Still, there is no quicker path to mediocrity than overpaying for guys like Outlaw or Petro and Billy King made similar mistakes in Philly that were killers (Willie Green, Kenny Thomas, or Greg Buckner).  Hopefully, the Nets are careful with the rest of their cap room.

New Orleans Hornets

6/7    Named Monty Williams head coach

6/24  Traded Morris Peterson and the rights to Cole Aldrich to Oklahoma City for the rights Craig Brackins and Quincy Poindexter

I will always remember Williams as a rookie for the Knicks.  He didn’t do much but he had moments whenever I was around.  He played particularly well one game at the Garden I happened to go to in 1994-95.  Then in 1995-96, when I happened to be shooting around at the Suny Purchase basketball court, Williams (nicely) kicked me off the court so that he could practice his free throws. I hadn’t thought much of him since that time but he apparently made a strong enough impression to that he will get the chance to try to turn around the Hornets.  This will be a tough start with Chris Paul looking to be traded and only a few other assets around N.O..

The Hornets have been smart so far with Paul and tried to defuse the tension here.  They seem to understand that they hold all the cards for right now.  Paul can’t force a trade unless he refuses to play (won’t happen) or he whines so loudly that they have to get him off the roster (probably won’t happen because of the collateral damage it might do to his reputation).  On the other hand, as time elapses, the Hornets will lose their leverage.  The key here, if Paul really wants out, is to actively shop him without being under the gun to maximize return.  So, a deal should be made but only under the right circumstances.

New York Knicks

7/8    Acquired Amare Stoudemire from Phoenix for a trade exception and a draft pick

7/9    Signed and traded David Lee to Golden State for Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, and a 2010 second-round pick

7/10  Signed Raymond Felton

7/13  Signed Timofey Mozgov

The LeBron James Plan ended up fizzling out but the Knicks, for the first time in a long time, are on the right track.  Nor should the last few bad years where management pared payroll and gave up on winning be considered a failure without signing LeBron.  The fact is that the Knicks had to get rid of all the crappy overpaid players accrued under Isiah Thomas regardless of whether LeBron was coming to town.  Amare is not a riskless player (he is a poor defender and has had some significant injuries) but he is better than Lee and a nice first building block.  Some have noted that Lee isn’t that much worse than Amare.  Let’s put their per-36 minute stats side-by-side:

There is a pretty good argument that Lee is as effective as Amare.  The key difference, however, is that fact that Stoudemire gets to the line a ton, while Lee does not.  Sure the Knicks will lose boards but they were the third worst free throw drawing team and Amare fills a more dire need and has a more unique skill-set.

Donnie Walsh also did a nice job of getting back some real talent for Lee in Randolph, a good young forward.  Suddenly, the Knicks are pretty big and athletic at forward for the first time in years.  As for Felton, he is a pretty average point guard but is an improvement over Chris Duhon.  It’s clear that the Knicks really need one more good player to be a decent playoff team but should be in the running for a low rung playoff position.  It’ll be up to Walsh to get that one more player to make New York interesting.

Oklahoma City Thunder

6/23    Traded the 32nd overall pick to Miami for Daequan Cook and the 18th overall pick in the 2010 draft

6/24    Traded the rights Craig Brackins and Quincy Poindexter to New Orleans for Morris Peterson and the rights to Cole Aldrich

OKC has always done a nice job of getting draft picks as a bonus for taking other teams bad contracts.  Cook isn’t a bad contract but Miami needed to clear all iffy players to sign the Big Three and get veteran role players.  OKC also got Eric Bledsoe who they later traded to the Clippers for a future first-rounder, which could turn out well since any future Clipper draft pick has some potential value.  As for the New Orleans trade, Mo Pete looks pretty done but the Thunder were able to get a potentially good center in Aldrich just for assuming Peterson’s $6 million salary this year.  Neither trade may matter long term but there is only upside to these deals for the Thunder and eventually at least one of them should pay off well.

Orlando Magic

7/8    Signed Chris Duhon

7/13  Signed Quentin Richardson

Orlando is just rounding out its bench with Duhon and Q-Rich.  Duhon is being used in place of Jason Williams.  Duhon is a better defender but not necessarily a better shooter or passer.  Duhon is not as good a player, though Williams, at 35, does run a risk of collapse that Duhon should not.  Despite this risk,the Duhon deal is a bit long (four years and $15 million) so Orlando was probably better off taking Williams year-to-year than holding onto Duhon until 2014.  Overall, the players are close enough, though, that the Magic are net flat on the trade in the short term.

Q-Rich comes in place of Matt Barnes, who apparently wanted a big contract.  Richardson showed new life with Miami, though I get a sense that the improvement came mostly from flukey shooting from three (.397% last year when he is a career 360% three-point shooter).  Richardson doesn’t get to the line at all anymore either (1.2 free throws per 36 minutes, a career low).  Orlando apparently wanted Barnes but he had demanded a big deal and, instead, gave Richardson three years and $7.5 million.  Ironically, Barnes ended up signing for much cheaper (two years and $3.6 million).  As with Duhon, the Magic slightly downgrade and overpay a little.  It shouldn’t affect the team too much either way in 2010-11 but both deals are mild losers.

Philadelphia 76ers

4/15    Fired Eddie Jordan

5/21    Named Doug Collins head coach

6/18    Traded Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni

I thought Jordan was a bad fit for the 76ers style but was surprised to see him canned so quickly.  Unhappiness with coaches in Philly seems to be a running theme.  It’s not clear if this is because they have testy players, a management that worries too much about making players happy, or they really have hired poor coaches.  Certainly it seems that the answer seems to be all three to some extent.  In any case, the cost of constantly firing coaches is having to constantly start rebuilding from scratch.  Now, the 76ers are going with Collins, a coach who is quite competent and a defensive coach but is also known for flaming out because he is not exactly a cool customer.

Here are Collins’ offensive, defensive, and pace rankings as an NBA coach:

There you have it.  Collins wants it slow, slow, slow, and, ideally, defensive too.  The funny thing is that Collins engenders such strong sentiment from people.  Some think he is a total spaz and others love his passion.  His coaching career has been quite eventful too.  Here’s the rundown in case you’ve forgotten:

-Chicago Bulls: Collins started out with the Bulls as an up-and-coming 35-year old coach, whose star playing career ended early because of injuries.  He helped the Michael Jordan Bulls gradually improve from fringe playoff team to solid contender.  After taking the heavily favored Pistons to six games in the 1989 Eastern Conference Finals, however, Collins was canned by management.  There were all sort of rumors about the motivation for Collins’ firing.  Some said there were personal life issues, others thought MJ didn’t like him, Jerry Resindorf claimed that they needed a new voice to get to title contention level, and Jerry Krause claimed that Collins was fired not for personal reasons but because his style of play didn’t fit the team.  Sam Smith provides a very credible explanation in “The Jordan Rules”:  “[Resindorf}  had seen [GM Jerry] Krause and Collins battle desperately over trade possibilities, with Collins going over Krause’s head to Resindorf and even trying to get Krause fired.  This proved fatal in the long run to Collins, for Reinsdorf hadn’t wanted Collins as coach in the first place, and only agreed to hire him after a desperate appeal from Krause.”

As for Collins emotional side, Smith noted that Jordan didn’t hate him but that “Collins became desperately controlling, calling every play and privately blaming Jordan for his inability to get the team to play a fast-breaking transition offense.”  Smith also told this amusing story: “Once at a charity exhibition, Jordan sat with players from around the league, swapping stories, when the subject turned to coaches.  Everyone had something to add, from Dominique Wilkins telling about Mike Fratello’s demonic rages to Isiah Thomas telling about willful exchanges with Chuck Daly.  So everyone had a good laugh, but there was silence after Jordan said, ‘You may think you’ve got problems with your coaches, but, well, mine cries every day.’”

It’s clear that Collins’ style wore on the Bulls but would the Bulls have won with Collins eventually?  The Bulls went on to dynastic heights within a season after Collins was let go.  Had Collins stayed put, they definitely would’ve won something, as they were peaking at the time.  You do wonder, however, if Collins had the calming hand that the Bulls needed when faced with the bruising Knicks teams in 1992 and 1993, let alone getting through the tough mental grind of winning the last three titles while the team was older and heavily scrutinized world-wide.  I think it’s fair to unscientifically estimate that a Collins coached Bulls team probably would’ve won maybe three titles versus the six that Phil Jackson racked up.

-Detroit Pistons: Collins took off six years to broadcast (very successfully) before returning to try to rebuild the Pistons in 1995-96.  Collins had nice building blocks in young Grant Hill and Allan Houston but not much else.  Collins improved a 28-win team to 46-36 and improved the league’s worst defense to the 7th best in the NBA.  The Pistons lost Houston to free agency after the season but improved even more in 1996-97 to 54-28.  Just as it looked like Collins was going to lead the Pistons to contention, the team slumped to 21-24 the next season and he was fired again. In February 1998, Jackie MacMullan wrote an article for Sports Illustrated that reported that Hill had turned on Collins: “At the center of Detroit’s storm was Collins, the fanatical coach who demanded perfection and was relentless in his pursuit of it. No one questioned Collins’s exceptional knowledge of the game, but players found it difficult, and in some cases impossible, to respond to his frenetic style. Sources told SI that in at least two meetings with owner Bill Davidson, Hill recommended a coaching change.”

Despite the reporting of Collins as a bit overbearing, “Money Players”, a book written by Armen Keteyian, Harvey Araton, and Martin F. Dardis about the 1995-96 NBA season, painted Collins as a bit high strung but a guy who was too caring and was being unfairly hurt by the self-centered world of the NBA: “In many ways, it had been a season of absolution, a chance for a passionate coach to cleanse himself personally and professionally, to break away only to come back full circle.  Back to the game, and the people he loved the most….As he prepared to walk out the door that night [after the final game of the Pistons' season], Collins was a man at peace.  His wife and his sense of team, his belief in process, were back….’I got one tonight,’ he said.  ‘I got one.’  He was talking about Allan Houston, and what he meant was that he’d gotten another star he could count on, build with.  He had himself another Money Player, or so he thought.  Soon it would be time for Houston to get paid.  And in the New NBA that Collins didn’t always understand, or accept, wads of cash were much, much thicker than the loyalty a coach wanted too much to think he deserved.  Than blood that was shared.”  Houston, of course, left that summer for New York and the implication was that Collins, who cared too much, was hurt by this betrayal for cash.

-Washington Wizards: Collins returned to broadcasting before being called back into coaching by his old foil Jordan, who was making his second comeback in 2001-02.  At the time, I was surprised that MJ was going with Collins because the entire rebuilding plan was built around high schooler Kwame Brown and I wasn’t sure that Collins had the temperament or patience to coach an 18-year old.  Also, I wasn’t under the impression that MJ particularly like Collins since he probably could’ve saved Collins in Chicago if he truly wanted him as a coach.  Still, Michael Leahy wrote in “When Nothing Else Matters” that MJ liked the fact that Collins turned the Pistons around so quickly and Jordan believed he could keep Collins from going off the deep end like he seemed to have in Detroit.  Collins had his combative moments but, for the most part, he had to let Jordan (his boss, superstar, and global icon) make most of the major decisions.  Jordan was only a good player by 2002 and the roster wasn’t great.  Both MJ and Collins were canned after the 2002-03 season by Abe Pollin.  In the end, the Wiz adventure for Collins didn’t add much to his coaching legacy or take anything away, he was just Jordan’s proxy.  Though some blamed Collins for failing to develop Kwame Brown, this is not fair.  Identifying Brown as a star and developing him were both Jordan’s jobs.  MJ was wrong about Brown the player and didn’t exactly help Brown develop either and the failure to develop should rest at MJ’s doorstep and not with Collins.

Going forward, Collins’ resume indicates that we should be seeing a slow-paced squad and improved defense with 76ers.  It will be interesting to see how Philly handles Collins’ inevitable tantrums, since management and players seemed pretty sensitive in the past (they dumped Tony DiLeo despite his success in 2008-09).  On the bright side, Collins has done a pretty good job developing young players and improving teams overall. It is pretty clear, however, that Collins won’t last more than two or three years here.  I probably would’ve looked for a younger coach than Collins who won’t burnout so quickly but Collins is not a bad solution short term.

Phoenix Suns

7/8    Re-signed Channing Frye

7/8    Signed Amare Stoudemire and traded him to New York for a trade exception and a future draft pick

7/8    Traded a 2011 second-round pick to Chicago Hakim Warrick

Frye received a perfectly fair contract for a pretty average center (five years and $30 million).  Frye remade his game in Phoenix, focusing on the perimeter but was basically as effective as he was in Portland two years ago.  The difference now is that Frye has lost some rebounds but traded them for a little more passing and blocking.  Though his shooting has migrated to the three-point line, Frye is scoring at the same rate as he was in 2007-08 too.  At 27, he is a fairly good bet to remain adequate through the life of the deal.

The Suns are also hoping that the athletic Warrick will replace a fraction of Amare’s production.  On a general level, Warrick might work.  He’s fast and athletic and can finish, which is a good fit for Phoenix’s run-and-gun.  Warrick probably won’t be a star but he should be getting a bump in touches and minutes in Phoenix.

Portland Trailblazers

6/24    Traded Martell Webster to Minnesota for Ryan Gomez and the right to Luke Babbit

6/25    Fired Kevin Pritchard

6/29    Waived Ryan Gomes

7/10    Signed Wesley Matthews to an offer sheet

I’m not sure what I can add to the Pritchard situation that wasn’t already said better by Kevin Pelton over at Basketball Prospectus.  In a nutshell, Pritchard’s reputation may have surpassed his actual results but he looked to be a very good GM.  2009-10 was a bit of a lost year for Portland because of injuries but they are well-positioned to contend for the next five years and I do not believing in changing management in such a situation unless there is something going on that we are not privy to.

Sacramento Kings

6/17    Traded Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni to Philadelphia for Samuel Dalembert

The price of dumping the unhappy Nocioni was giving Philly Hawes, a young player with some potential.  In terms of salary, Dalembert will be off the books after 2010-11, while Philly will still owe Nocioni almost $7 million 2011-12.  Clearly, the Kings have decided that Hawes is not going to develop into a very good player, otherwise, it would be inane to trade him just to lose Nocioni.  In looking at Hawes’ stats, we see that he has some potential but shown very little improvement, as his rate stats have stayed pretty even in three years in the NBA.  I don’t see Hawes as a star either but he is quite young (still only 22) and does enough that he could develop into a Raef LaFrentz-type of big.  The Kings had a glut of forwards but dumping a decent young player isn’t the best way to go about fixing it, when Carl Landry had more value and probably won’t be here long term anyway.

San Antonio Spurs

7/10    Re-signed Matt Bonner

7/12    Signed Tiago Splitter

The Spurs have been waiting a while for Splitter, who was once a very hot international prospect.  Splitter is a fun player to watch, a bruising and active forward, who can board and get to the line.  Splitter is still only 22 and had nice stats last year (13.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 5.5 free throws per game all in only 26.7 mpg).  If there is a negative with Splitter, it is the fact that he doesn’t block shots, which limits his defense presence.  Still, he gives the Spurs some more depth up front after Tim Duncan (they already have DeJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess).  So the Spurs have quietly improved here.

Toronto Raptors

7/8    Re-signed Amir Johnson and signed Linas Kleiza to an offer sheet

7/9    Signed Chris Bosh and traded him to Miami for two first-round picks in 2011 and a trade exception

As with Dan Gilbert in Cleveland, Bryan Colangelo’s sour grapes about losing his franchise player seem a bit unbecoming.  Bosh may have left but he didn’t really quit on the Raptors.  With Toronto floundering badly, what point was there to bringing him back to play out the last few weeks of the season to get slaughtered as an eight seed?  Nor does signing Johnson for too much make Raptor fans feel any better.  In short, the Raptors are starting over again and there isn’t much talent in the stable.  If any one mishandled the free agency grind it was Toronto.  If it was that clear that Bosh was bolting, they really should’ve traded him and replenished its stable of assets.  As they stand now, the Raps are built around Andrea Bargnani and DeMar Derozan, which is not an inspiring thought.

Utah Jazz

7/8    Signed and traded Carlos Boozer and a second-round pick to Chicago for a player exception

As we’ll talk about next time, the Jazz did a great job of getting some value for Boozer and also finding a reasonable replacement for almost nothing.  They are the only team ithis summer to lose an All-Star-type player and come out of it basically intact.

Washington Wizards

6/29    Traded Quinton Ross to New Jersey for Yi Jianlian and cash

7/8      Traded the draft rights to Vladimir Veremeenko to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich, the draft rights to Kevin Seraphin and cash

7/13    Signed Hilton Armstrong

The transactions aren’t great but Hinrich has value and can probably play with and tutor John Wall if need be.  Yi isn’t really any good but is not a horrible end of the bench guy and I’m sure Andray Blatche will enjoy torching him in practice.

7/7    Named Vinny Del Negro head coach

7/8    Signed Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes

7/9    Signed Brian Cook

In the best and worst of times, there is a certain sense of futility we all get when we hear that someone is going to be new coach the Clippers.  It is true that all coaches are hired to eventually be fired, the Clippers seem to stack the deck against a coach’s ability to have long term success more than most.  This got me wondering where Clipper coaches come from and where they go from Clipperdom.  Here’s a list of the Clipper head coaches hired by Donald Sterling and how it went for them:

-Jim Lynam, 1983-84: The Clipps were Lynam’s first head coaching gig.  He went 30-52  the first season before being fired after a 22-39 start in 1984-85.  This job wasn’t a dead end for Lynam, who parlayed it into work with the 76ers (1987-88 to 1991-92) and the Bullets from 1994-95 through mid-1996-97.  Neither later stint was a rip roaring success but Lynam  did win one division with the 76ers and Charles Barkley at his best in 1989-90.

-Don Chaney, 1984-85: Chaney made his head coaching debut with the Clippers closing out the 1984-85 season.  He was given two more full season before being fired after a miserable 12-70 campaign in 1986-87.  Like Lynam, Chaney had more coaching in his future.  Chaney went to Houston (1988-89 to 1991-92), Detroit (1993-94 to 1994-95) and New York (2001-02 to 2003-04).  Chaney won Coach of the Year in 1990-91 when he led the Rockets to 52-30 while missing Hakeem Olajuwon for much of the season.  Chaney hasn’t made the playoffs since that season (where the team was swept in the first round).

-Gene Shue, 1987-88: Before coming to L.A., Shue had a storied coaching career leading the Bullets and 76ers to the NBA Finals in the 1970s.  After being fired from the 76ers in early 1977-78, Shue’s career stagnated a bit.  He spent two mediocre years with the old San Diego Clippers (1978-79 and 1979-80) and returned to the Bullets, who were not quite the same team without Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld.  Shue’s new Bullets bounced around .500 from 1980-81 to 1985-86.  He looked done until Sterling tabbed him in 1987-88.  The Shue Clippers were an abysmal 17-65 that year and he was fired after a 10-28 start the next season, ending his head coaching career.  Shue is apparently still scouting for the 76ers now.

-Don Casey, 1988-89:  Casey received his first opportunity to be a head coach with the Clipps.  His record wasn’t awful by Clipper standards, going 30-52 in 1989-90.  He was fired anyway as the Clipps had amassed some real talent (Ron Harper, Danny Manning, Charles Smith) and expected better results.  Casey returned to life in the NBA as an assistant until he got another interim gig that turned permanent with the Nets in 1998-99 when John Calipari flamed out.  Interestingly, Casey’s single full season in Jersey went about the same (31-51) and he was fired and he was never an NBA head coach again.

-Mike Schuler, 1990-91: Schuler had been the head coach of the Clyde Drexler Blazers as they were starting to look like a real threat in the late 1980s.  Schuler was fired in 1988-89 and the Blazers took off with new coach Rick Adelman.  Schuler left the Blazer gig as damage goods too.  Sports Illustrated wrote a feature in 1989 detailing Schuler’s inability get along with the players, particularly Drexler: “‘It’s not just that Mike and I are different,’ says Drexler. ‘It’s that we’re total opposites. It was hard for us right from the beginning, and I’d say it’s getting worse, not better.’” Schuler basically duplicated Casey’s 1989-90 effort, going 31-51.  In 1991-92, Schuler started out better (21-24) but was abruptly fired when Larry Brown became available.  Schuler never was a head coach again.

-Larry Brown, 1991-92: LB was well ensconced in his brilliant but nomadic career when the Clippers hired in 1991-92.  At the time, Brown had left the Spurs abruptly after a fight with ownership (it’s not clear if Brown was fired or whether he quit).  Brown was a friend of Sterling and was snapped up quickly.  Brown led the Clipps to the playoffs in 1991-92 and 1992-93 and as seven seeds, they took better seeded teams to the brink before losing deciding Game 5s in the first round.  Brown’s relationship with Danny Manning, the Clippers’ best player (and Brown’s star player at Kansas) hit the skids.  Manning demanded a trade in 1993, which he retracted.  But the tension was enough (combined with the usual Clipper chaos as to whether Manning we re-sign in 1994) to get Brown wandering again and he left the Clipps after 1992-93 to go to the Pacers.

-Bob Weiss, 1993-94: Weiss was one the first re-treads that Sterling had hired.  Weiss had a few non-playoff years in San Antonio (1986-87 and 1987-88) before two .500ish years in Atlanta (1990-91 to 1992-93).  Weiss hoped to keep the success that Brown had going but just was not as good a coach. Some of the good players of the Brown Era were already gone (Harper, Smith, Mark Jackson) and Manning was approaching free agency and clearly intended to bolt, throwing the team into flux.  Weiss famously explained that he knew this was a short-term job as detailed in this story by Mitch Lawrence in 1995 in the Daily News: “When Bob Weiss became coach of the Los Angeles Clippers before last season, he never bothered to get a California driver’s license.  But he had a stock answer in case he was pulled over.  ‘I’m not going to be here long enough,’ Weiss would explain, ‘I’m the Clippers’ coach.’”  Weiss was fired after one year, and returned to the assistants ranks.  Weiss did get one more chance at head coaching in 2005-06, which ended after a 13-17 start.

-Bill Fitch, 1994-95: Like Shue, Fitch was an accomplished coach on his last legs when he got to L.A..  Fitch was known for rebuilding teams but driving the players crazy with his hardcore style.  The Clippers were in a terrible place, having lost all their former stars to free agency but Loy Vaught.  Fitch did a credible job, lasting four years and even getting the Clipps to the playoffs in 1996-97 with Vaught and few very good players (fringer Darrick Martin was the starting point).  Still, the Clipps were mostly bad for Fitch (99-229) and he was fired after 1997-98 and never coached again.  Fitch’s career eneded with a 944-1,106 coaching record (he had been 845-877 when he arrived in L.A.).

-Chris Ford, 1998-99: Ford had coached previously with the Celtics (1990-91 to 1994-95) and the Bucks (1996-97 to 1997-98) and been decent.  He entered the Clipps at another low point, as they tried to integrate new lottery picks (Lamar Odom, Michael Olowokandi, Maurice Taylor) into a team.  Ford was not known as a great coach but was hampered by the Clipps blowing the first pick on Olowokandi when Mike Bibby or Vince Carter would’ve been much better (not to mention Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce).  Ford was fired midway through 1999-00 with a collective 20-75 record in two years.  Ford has had only one more head coaching shot since (as an interim coach for the 2003-04 76ers).

-Alvin Gentry, 2000-01: Gentry’s previous coaching experience was an interim job with Miami in 1994-95, which was terminated after the season and an interim job  with the Pistons in 1997-98, which he parlayed into two more decent years as a head coach.   Gentry rallied the the Clipps to 31-51 and 39-43 his first two seasons.  When L.A. Struggled in 2002-03, Gentry was fired after a 19-39 start.  Gentry returned to the assistant role until he used another interim job (when Terry Porter was canned) in 2008-09 to get the Suns’ permanent job in 2009-10 and made the Western Conference Finals, making him the most successful post-Clippers coach besides Brown.

-Mike Dunleavy, 2003-04: Dunleavy was probably the most acclaimed pre-Clippers coach to take the job.  (Fitch and Shue won more previously but were not hot commodities when they came to Clipper Land and Brown hadn’t actually had much playoff success in the NBA at that time (Dunleavy had had more extended playoff success in the NBA than Brown at that point).  We all remember Dunleavy having the best season in L.A. Clipper history in 2005-06 (going 47-35 and winning a playoff series) before he petered out the next three seasons.  It will be interesting to see where Dunleavy’s coaching career goes from here.  His Clipper career is a net negative for his resume but could get another shot..

So data leaves us with the following:

-Of the 11 coaches hired, five were re-treads (mediocre veteran coaches or good older coaches with no recent success), three were assistants, one was an interim coach/re-tread (Gentry), and two were well-known and more highly esteemed.  Perhaps coincidentally, the two most highly esteemed (Brown and Dunleavy) had the best tenures.

-Not including Dunleavy, three of the group never coached again and an additional three only had brief or interim post-Clippers head coaching jobs.

-The only two coaches to have had any real success after spending time in Clipper Land are Brown and Gentry and Gentry’s post-Clipper success happened by a confluence of odd circumstances.

What does all this mean for Vinny Del Negro?  Del Negro fits nicely into the decent re-tread category of guys who showed some coaching ability but didn’t bowl anyone over.  As we mentioned, these guys haven’t exactly blossomed in Los Angeles or in their careers afterwards.  We’ll be rooting for Del Negro (after the Bulls treated him so poorly) but history is not encouraging.

Los Angeles Lakers

7/8    Signed Steve Blake

Blake is a competent point guard and has been able to blend into any system he’s thrown into.  The Lakers are an interesting challenge because Blake is a good passer and runs a traditional offense pretty well but Phil Jackson has very little use for traditional passers in his triangle offense.  It’s a bit superficial analysis but to highlight the differences, here are the assist per games of each of Jackson’s starting points:

1989-90 Bulls: John Paxson, 4.1 apg (5.1 per/36 min)

1990-91 Bulls: John Paxson, 3.6 apg (5.4 per/36 min)

1991-92 Bulls: John Paxson, 3.1 apg (4.5 per/36 min)

1992-93 Bulls: B.J. Armstrong, 4.0 apg (4.8 per/36 min)

1993-94 Bulls: B.J. Armstrong, 3.9 apg (4.2 per/36 min)

1994-95 Bulls: B.J. Armstrong, 3.0 apg (3.4 per/36 min)

1995-96 Bulls: Ron Harper, 2.6 apg (4.0 per/36 min)

1996-97 Bulls: Ron Harper, 2.5 apg (4.0 per/36 min)

1997-98 Bulls: Ron Harper, 2.9 apg (3.8 per/36 min)

1999-00 Lakers: Ron Harper, 3.4 apg (4.8 per/36 min)

2000-01 Lakers: Ron Harper, 2.4 apg (3.6 per/36 min)

2001-02 Lakers: Derek Fisher, 2.6 apg (3.3 per/36 min)

2002-03 Lakers: Derek Fisher, 3.6 apg (3.8 per/36 min)

2003-04 Lakers: Gary Payton, 5.5 apg (5.7 per/36 min)

2005-06 Lakers: Smush Parker, 3.7 (3.9 per/36 min)

2006-07 Lakers: Smush Parker, 2.8 (3.3 per/36 min)

2007-08 Lakers: Derek Fisher, 2.9 apg (3.8 per/36 min)

2008-09 Lakers: Derek Fisher, 3.2 apg (3.8 per/36 min)

2009-10 Lakers: Derek Fisher, 2.5 apg (3.2 per/36 min)

Outside of Payton (who Jackson tried to accommodate based upon his unique scoring abilities), Jackson points barely ever break 4.0 apg. Blake is coming off of a season (6.2 apg) that would be the best ever for a point gaurd in PJax’s career.  Of course, Jackson doesn’t love passing points.  The chart above indicates that what he wants are spot up shooters and big guys who can defend big guards.   Blake can shoot the three, so he fits in that regard but he is in for a very different experience with the Lakers.

Another interesting side note: Fisher’s five best passing seasons (per-minute) were with the pre-Phil Lakers and the Warriors.  Armstrong’s best passing season came with the Warriors and Payton ticked up to 6.6 assists per 36 minutes the season after he left the Lakers (he had been at 7.4 the year before he went to the Lakers).  Jackson’s offensive style is so different from the rest of the NBA that one must learn to value players differently for the Lakers.  Obviously, the triangle isn’t some impossible to learn offense but it clearly affects point guard penetrators greatly.  It probably will never happen but I’d love to see how Jackson deals with a very good young penetrating-based point who is not a great shooter and can’t defend big guards.  Would Jackson discard such a player or would he try to utilize his strengths?  We probably will never know the answer because Jackson would never want this type of player but I suspect Jackson would sit such a player on pine.

Memphis Grizzlies

7/8    Re-signed Rudy Gay

Five years and $84 million?  Really?  I like Gay but I have no idea what the Grizz are trying to accomplish with this roster.  To me, having O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay doesn’t work that well and Gay’s offense prowess is overblown (he can’t/doesn’t pass, doesn’t shoot great, and isn’t a great defender).  Gay can create his shot and takes a good amount of foul shots (400 for the season and 4.5 per game).  In addition, he is young and has shown remarkable durability.  The question is whether it is worth paying Gay maximum dollars to stay on a mediocre team that can’t play defense and has cheaper players that duplicate his strength.  I don’t think so but you can’t say that the Grizz overbid if they really wanted to keep GAy.  The buzz we saw indicated that whomever lost out on the LeBron bidding was going to throw big money at Gay.  This would probably be a mistake but the Grizz had to choose between losing Gay and overpaying him and chose the latter.  I suppose this isn’t an awful choice for fans, who need some feeling that management is actually trying to win.  In addition, Gay is young enough that, barring injury or some huge changes in the collective bargaining agreement, will actually be tradeable too.  But any big deal signed by the Grizz will be looked at against whether the signing/acquisition was favorable to keeping and paying Pau Gasol.  Viewed from this context, the Gay signing kind of sucks.  You’d much rather have Pau back in town if that really was the choice.  But the past is gone and going forward, we’ll give the deal the most mild of thumbs up.

Miami Heat

6/23    Traded Daequan Cook and the 18th overall pick in the 2010 draft to Oklahoma City for the 32nd overall pick

6/29    Waived James Jones

7/9      Traded two first-round picks in 2011 and a trade exception to Toronto for Chris Bosh

7/9      Traded first-round picks in 2013 and 2015, a 2012 second-round pick, a future second-round pick, and a trade exception to Cleveland for LeBron James

7/9      Re-signed Dwyane Wade

7/12    Traded Michael Beasley to Minnesota for second-round picks in 2011 and 2014

7/12    Signed Udonis Haslem

That’s not a bad off-season.  As noted in part one of our transactions column, James AND Bosh are two of the best players to switch teams at their peaks.  We have a lot of interesting questions for the Heat, many of which won’t be answered until next season.

-Can they cobble together a supporting cast?

Probably, since vets are desperate to play with stars for the possibility of rings and exposure.  Penny Hardaway was kind enough of to offer his services already (Keith Askins jokingly said that he could do it too if Penny could).  I’m sure Shaq probably wants back to Miami now too, though he burned some serious bridges on the way out of town not so long ago.  Regardless, there will be plenty of good players taking discounts to go to Miami (already Haslem is back at a discount).

-Are the Heat favorites to win the NBA title?

This will depend how good the supporting cast is but certainly they have as good a chance as anyone if they get even average role players and good health from the stars.

-How will sharing the ball affect the stats of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh?

That’s a great great question, since this type of pairing of young stars is so unprecedented.  Just for fun, here’s how the some of the other trades.signings of stars affected the usage rates of the stars and the incumbents:

Here, we see how MVP Moses took a huge tumble in shots when he came to Philly but Dr. J ended up giving up even more shots.  It worked out pretty well for all involved and Malone was still considered the best player in the NBA and Erving was still very effective.

T-Mac’s move to the Rockets knocked down his stats a little but had no effect on Yao.  An interesting footnote is that McGrady’s usage bounced back up to 35% the next two season (same as his Orlando heights) but his PER fell from 30.30 in 2002-03 to 22 range for Houston.

Barkley totally changed his game to blend with the Rockets but remained just as effective a player, focusing on rebounding and even raised his effective field goal percentage slightly in this new arrangement.  Hakeem and Drexler were not affected too much statistically by Barkley’s presence.  Hakeem lost some shots and boards (though it’s not clear if age was a factor too).  Ironically, Drexler was the one who supposedly did not like Barkley but his shots were not reduced by the fact that Sir Charles was in the game.

When the Lakers acquired Payton and Malone, everyone’s stats took a tumble across the board.  The ultimate results were positive (the Lakers went 56-26) but you can question whether it made sense to take possessions away from Shaq and Kobe.  Payton was a player of limited utility as a role player since scoring was such a big part of his value, while Malone did a pretty nice impressions as role playing forward.  Again, however, perhaps a Kurt Thomas/P.J. Brown would’ve done most of the same without taking too many shots from Shaq.  The upshot is that scoring has value but in diminishing returns depending personnel.  This is why a Kerry Kittles or Charles Oakley can have value, see they can fill roles well without shooting much, in the right context.  It’s not that Oakley is actually better than Malone but he can do most of the same things Malone was asked to do without the need for the ball.

As for the 2010-11 Heat,  I think we can expect to see the biggest drop in usage from Bosh first and foremost and a slight drop from James and Wade.  It’ll be absolutely fascinating to watch how this will work.

Bye Bye Beasley?

He was totally superfluous to the Heat’s plans going forward so the giveaway made sense.  This doesn’t mean he’s a total bust but he’s no superstar either.  The last time a number two pick in the draft was traded after two years was Marcus Camby, whom the Raptors dumped with prejudice because they considered him soft and a malcontent.  Camby thrived thereafter.  Hopefully, Beasley can do the same.   But Beasley is nothing like Camby looks like another good scoring but not great rebounding forward.  Usually good versions of these players end up being Glenn Robinson, which wouldn’t be a bad thing if Beasley can get there.

Does this conclusively mean Pat Riley was correct?

You may be wondering what we’re talking about.  We are not referring to Riley’s conclusion that a team of Wade, LeBron and Bosh is a good idea.  It is a good idea but we are referring to Riley’s New York years.  When Pat Riley bolted New York in 1995, he claimed that he wanted to acquire all sorts of potential stars to move the Knicks over the top (Mitch Richmond, Clyde Drexler, or Dominique Wilkins) but that management squashed the deals.  Since coming to Miami, Riley has decisively found stars and hot names in the trade market/free agent market (Alonzo Mourning, Jamal Mashburn, Tim Hardaway, Eddie Jones, Briant Grant, Lamar Odom, Elton Brand, Shaquille O’Neal, Antoine Walker, and now LeBron and Bosh).  The signings/trades haven’t always worked out for Riley in Miami but I think Knick fans can’t help but think that they would have LeBron right now had Riley been given full control so long ago.

5/14    Fired Mike Woodson

6/13    Named Larry Drew head coach

7/8      Re-signed Joe Johnson

From a decision-making perspective, Atlanta is one the weirder franchises in the NBA.  First, Mike Woodson apparently wins a power struggle with GM Billy Knight right about the time when it was clear that the Hawks had built a pretty good team.  Now, the team is looking pretty good and Woodson is shown the door too.  Knight was apparently fired because he was unable to lead the team past the second-round (they were swept out of the second-round both years).  If that is the main basis for firing Knight, it strikes me as a little obtuse.  The Hawks have done nothing but improve with Woodson.  Sure, it’s not fun to be swept but the teams that swept them (Cavs in 2008-09 and Magic in 2009-10) were much better.  Woodson isn’t irreplaceable or the main reason the team improved so much over the last five years but usually it is better to err on the side of stability and keeping a competent coach over canning him because of unreasonable expectations.

Hopefully, Drew will show himself to be a good coach and take the team to the next level.  Drew has been a well-regarded assistant for a long time and has paid enough dues to get this job.  On paper, however, Atlanta looks like the same second-round team they were the last few years. 

If you were looking for some sort of collateral indicating as to whether Atlanta’s coaching move made any sense, the signing of Johnson does not bode well.  The Hawks needed and should’ve tried to keep JJ…but at $119 million?  There may have been some risk that someone would have overbid for Johnson during the free agent frenzy but smart teams just do not invest max money on 29-year old shooting guards who are merely pretty good.  This is not as egregious as the Knicks overpaying for Allan Houston back in 2000 because JJ is a better player than Houston was.  Still, one would think that Johnson could’ve been had for much less.  (I would have valued Johnson at about $70-80 million over six years).  We all know that most non-superstar two guards tend to age quickly.  Johnson is better than just good but he’s not quite good enough to assume that he can keep up his current production level for more than one or two years and his contract runs six years.  Just for fun, here’s a list of the PERs for other two good-to-great guards from ages 28 to age 34:

Johnson’s PER in 2009-10 was a respectable 19.3.  He falls square in middle of the above group.  The stars stayed quite good but JJ’s peers, at best, stayed okay by age-32 (with the notable exception of Richmond, who had a nice second wind at ages 31 and 32).  None of this proves that Johnson will be a huge albatross but the odds aren’t great for him being above-average after age 31.  The overpay on Johnson won’t make the Hawks a title team in the next two years and may even hinder efforts to pay the more valuable Al Horford (or retain Horford and Josh Smith, both of whom are more valuable than JJ).  The Hawks can work around this issue (their payroll isn’t huge) but why give away $40 million in salary cap flexibility when you probably didn’t have to?

Boston Celtics

7/10    Signed Jermaine O’Neal

7/13    Re-signed Ray Allen

The Celtics are all in for another veteran run for the title.  These types of runs are fun but often can end abruptly when the stars become old or injured.  The problems snowball when all the veteran role players surrounding them seem a bit worthless without stars to complement their particular skill sets (see, e.g., the Rockets of the late 1990s).  Still, if a team is going to go this route (and the Celts may as well milk Kevin Garnett as long as possible), signing O’Neal and Allen aren’t bad ideas.  Both deals are short term and relatively fair.  O’Neal may not be the player he was in 2003 but he was effective for Miami. He can’t create his own shot like he used to but the defense is still there and he’s only 32 (even though it seems like he’s been in the NBA forever and moves like it too).  At two years and $11 million, this is likely to be a favorable deal for Boston.

As for Allen, he reportedly took two years and $20 million from Boston when better deals were on the table.  As noted above, shooting guards can age poorly and Allen is coming off his weakest year in a while.  The scary thing for Boston fans is that Allen very likely will hit the brick wall and will no longer be a slightly above average two guard anymore.  The question is whether it happens in 2010-11 or 2011-12.  The difference of one year matters greatly to Boston.  If Allen gives Boston one more good year, the deal works.  Indeed, Allen, even if not playable in 2011-12, would be quite tradable to teams looking to clear cap space.  Finally, I suppose this shouldn’t figure into the equation too much but to the extent that Allen has been a classy pro and a quasi-local player, this is the type of player franchises are well-served to pay a little extra to keep around.

Charlotte Bobcats

7/10    Signed Dominic McGuire

7/12    Re-signed Tyrus Thomas

7/13    Traded Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca to Dallas for Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera, Erick Dampier, and cash

For the Bobcats, this was not a value-for-value deal.  While Dampier and Chandler match up as salary slots (both make around $13 million 2010-11), Dampier’s deal is non-guaranteed.  This means that the Cats can merely cut Dampier and save about $13 million or use him as a trade chip to acquire a good player that another will want to dump to save money.  The move isn’t totally free, as the Bobcats must take back Carroll and Najera, who have two years left on their contracts.  This is Carroll’s return engagement to Charlotte, where he was a competent role player.  His playing style won’t mesh with Larry Brown but he could really work on teams needing shooters (Miami or Chicago?).

For Charlotte fans, this deal will be ultimately be judged by how the team utilizes Dampier.  If this ends up being a straight salary dump, fans might feel a bit discouraged.  Chandler has his issues but he is enough of an asset to keep around over an empty salary slot.  I’m a bit skeptical that Michael Jordan wants to spend the cash right now but we shall see.

Chicago Bulls

5/3    Fired Vinny Del Negro

6/23  Named Tom Thibodeau head coach

7/8    Signed Hakim Warrick and traded him to Phoenix for for a 2011 second-round pick

7/8    Traded Kirk Hinrich, the draft rights to Kevin Seraphin and cash to Washington for the draft rights to Vladimir Veremeenko

7/8    Traded a player exception  to Utah for Carlos Boozer and a second-round pick

7/10    Signed Kyle Korver and signed JJ Reddick to an offer sheet

Under the radar, the Bulls have had a very nice off-season.  They didn’t get too wrapped up in the LeBron Sweepstakes and then took the steps to address their weaknesses.  First, the Bulls addressed the defensiuve issues by getting a proven defensive mastermind in Tom Tihbodeau.  Next, they landed the best low post scorer on the market after Chris Bosh in Boozer.  The Bulls now have the makings of a very formidable team next season.

But there are some things for the pessimists to latch on to here as well.  First, the Bulls treated Del Negro horribly, he was the ultimate a lame duck, despite the fact that he actually seemed to improve as a coach (particularly defensively).  Thibodeau has a nice background but he is not a guaranteed improvement since he has no head coaching experience as a pro.  Also, Boozer, as good as he is, is not a slam dunk.  He has had plenty of injury issues himself the last few years and may not age well.  Assuming both Thidobdeau and Boozer both workout as planned, neither move addresses the Bulls terrible three-point shooting (28th in the NBA at .330%).  Combine this with the fact that the Bulls have lost three of the four most prolific three-point shooters on the roster from last years already (Kirk Hinrich, John Salmons, and Brad Miller) and there are still holes to fill.  [Ed. note: Korver and Reddick should be a nice star].

Cleveland Cavaliers

5/24    Fired Mike Brown

6/4      Fired Danny Ferry and named Chris Grant general manager

7/1      Named Byron Scott head coach

7/9      Signed LeBron James and traded him to Miami for first-round picks in 2013 and 2015, a 2012 second-round pick, a future second-round pick, and a trade exception

Yuck.  In retrospect, it seems that the Cavs never had a shot to re-sign LeBron no matter what they did.  He had made the decision to get out of town and play with his buddies.  Had James won a title in Cleveland it might’ve changed things but even that is not guaranteed, since his need to have a global following wouldn’t have been sated by playing the balance of his career in a non-glitzy town.   Cleveland also has a legitimate gripe with the way that James treated his departure like a sleazy daytime television show.  LeBron was the philanderer who confronts his current unsuspecting spouse and tells him that he is leaving her on national television for someone else that he may already be shtooping, just to ensure that the break upo is as humiliating and degrading as possible.

Unfortunately, Dan Gilbert has also stuck to the script by acting the role of the shunned spouse on these shows by going ape-shit insane upon hearing the news.  Gilbert’s invective letter posted on the Cavs’ website did not make him seem the most sane person.  If LeBron is a prima donna and a quitter, why the hell did you want him back before anyway?  The anger is justified but expressed in a silly form.  Focus on the future.  No player is bigger than a franchise and time will go on.  If Cleveland plays well and gets a little lucky, they can contend again.  If there is any consolation, Byron Scott has been a nice good luck charm for the Nets (they obtained Kenyon Martin, Jason Kidd, and Richard Jefferson early on his tenure) and the Hornets (they got Chris Paul).

In case you’re wondering, LeBron has the highest single season PER (31.10) of any player ever to change teams.  Here’s the list of the highest PER players to switch teams during or after a season of a 25.0 PER or higher:

-LeBron James, Clev. 2009-10, PER 31.1: Signed with Miami Heat.

-Wilt Chamberlain, S.F. 1964-65, PER 28.3: Traded to Sixers during season.  The Sixers made the conference finals and the Warriors missed the playoffs.  Ultimately, the Sixers won a title with Wilt but the Warriors quickly rebuilt to a good but not great team with Rick Barry and Nate Thurmond.

-Moses Malone, Hou. 1981-82, PER 26.8:  Signed as a free agent with the Sixers.  Philly immediately won a title and the Rockets tanked.  Long term the Sixers didn’t keep it up and the Rockets used their futility to draft Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon in successive years, which led to three Finals appearances and two titles.

-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Mil. 1974-75, PER 26.4:  Kareem forced a trade to the Lakers, also desiring a larger market to play in.  The Lakers were decent for the rest of the 1970s and launched in the 1980s when he was paired with Magic Johnson.  Milwaukee stayed around .500 for a few years before becoming formidable again in the early 1980s with Sidney Moncrief.

-Shaquille O’Neal, Orl. 1995-96, PER 26.4: Signed with Lakers.  The Lakers, of course, won three titles.  The Magic were a lower rung playoff team without Shaq.

-Tracy McGrady, Orl. 2003-04, PER 25.3:  After the Magic struggled and T-Mac seemed indifferent, management traded him to Houston.  The Magic were mediocre in 2004-05 but parlayed their struggles into Dwight Howard in the draft.  The Rockets were better with McGrady and Yao Ming but never got out of the first round (until McGrady was injured).

-Chris Bosh, Tor. 2009-10, PER 25.0:  Signed with the Heat.

Dallas Mavericks

7/9    Re-signed Brendan Haywood

7/13  Signed Ian Mahinmi

7/13  Traded Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera, and cash to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca

For Dallas, a Haywood/Chandler center spot looks like a nice pairing.  Sure, Chandler at $12.5 million is a bit pricey but Mark Cuban is willing to spend to contend.  Assuming the stay healthy, this center platoon gives Dallas both size and speed defensively (neither player is too great offensively).  In addition, if Chandler doesn’t perform, he has value as a trading chip with an expiring contract or can simply be jettisoned after the season.  The Haywood contract is a bit rich in length (six years and $55 million) but for three years,  $9 million is fair for a league averageish center.  Again, Cuban can afford to pay him through age-36 but a little restraint might’ve helped here.

Golden State Warriors

6/22    Traded Corey Maggette and the 44th pick in the 2010 draft to Milwaukee for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric

7/9      Traded Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, and a 2010 second-round pick to New York for David Lee

7/13    Signed Dorell Wright; signed and traded Anthony Morrow to New Jersey for a conditional second-round pick in 2011 and a player exception

If you can figure out what’s going on here, the more power to you.  First the Warriors trade one of their best players in Maggette for trinkets.  The deal is more of a salary dump but Maggette is good enough to stick around on merit (three years and $30 million left on his deal).  The savings are nice ($16 million in 2011-12 and 2012-13 combined) but this money and more was immediately invested in Lee, a no-defense power forward who isn’t particularly young and doesn’t fill a serious need.  The net gain here?  Some rebounds, Lee’ amiable personality, and not much else in terms of wins.  I know Anthony Randolph is young and not exactly polished but he has the talent to do at least as well as Lee at a much cheaper price.  On a rebuilding team, Randolph is precisely the type of player the Warriors are supposed to give a shot to. If the goal is to build around Stephen Curry, a collection of hard-nosed defensive forwards and centers were the proper target and not Lee.  This is not to say Lee is a waste of money but he does not represent progress to the (presumed or hoped) Warriors goals of creating a contending team.

-Where is LeBron going?

I have no idea and have absolutely no inside knowledge on the subject.  We do know certain facts that at least allow for a theoretical handicapping.  Recognizing that we are making guesses based on rumor/innuendo we’ll still try to distill an educated guess based upon the facts as we see them.  In order to find the facts, let’s do a team-by-team breakdown.  Here’s how the contenders look:

(1) Cleveland: Cleveland is still the hometown favorite and the mention of them trying to get Chris Bosh recently seems to indicate that the Cavs were working with James.  On the other hand, the Bosh Affair also seems to indicate that LeBron was making sure that whichever team he went to brought in another star-type player.  The fact that the Cavs couldn’t land Bosh doesn’t bode well for them if that is the case.  Still, Cleveland seems to be the leader as the hometown squad and have already acommodated James by upending the coach and GM to suit him.

(2)  Chicago: The Bulls have the deepest incumbent supporting cast and have now have reportedly signed Carlos Boozer, which satisfies James’ need for a second big signing.  Combine Boozer with Derrick Rose and the rest of the players already in Chicago with James and you have a very good team.  The only problem from Chicago’s end is the fact that they have been relatively quiet in the process.  This doesn’t mean the Bulls are not a player but you would expect some buzz, even if it is manufactured, from a real contender for James’ services.

(3)  New York: All indications were that the Knicks did not impress James and are not real players in this competition.  New York did sign Amare Stoudemire, which may or may not, be an asset in getting James.  As much as James may be interested in playing in New York, playing the next eight years with Amare and not much else does not seem enticing to me.

But what about the New York mystique?  Incidentally, author Buzz Bissinger wrote an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times a few weeks ago advocating that James should leave Cleveland for New York based upon this very fact.  Bissinger made the case as follows: “LeBron James’s relationship to his community is profound: he built a palatial house in the Akron area and just finished his seventh season with the Cavaliers. But I believe those roots have become golden shackles. He is too loved, and therefore too coddled and too easily forgiven….James basically has not been challenged as an athlete since he was a sophomore in high school and had a coach named Keith Dambro…Yes, he is a god in Akron and Cleveland. But sometimes worship, as genuine as it is, can create a false sense of invincibility. The result: all he and his teammates can do now is watch the Celtics advance in the playoffs.  LeBron, take the chance. Just go and never look back. In the greatest city in the world, you will never regret it. It is time to leave home.”

I understand Bissinger’s argument but the fundamental unstated assumption of Bissinger’s article, that the Cavs have lost because James doesn’t have the killer instinct, is just not correct.  The Cavs have lost to two very good teams in the playoffs, not because of LeBron but because of the failure of his cast.  Even if you assumed, for argument sake, that James needed more killer instinct, why would the chance at being booed more really fix that?

Bissinger is correct that New York offers some potential possibilities that none of the other teams do.  If James wins for the Knicks, he becomes an instant legend.  But New York would be a high risk/high reward proposition for LeBron.  If James fails to win, no matter how well he plays, he would be hit with some stigma, fair or unfair, that he failed in his goals.  This raises another logical flaw with LeBron-to-New York argument, LeBron is absolutely already a global icon and does not need New York to raise his exposure.  If his legacy is a concern (and it probably is to him), he must win a title (if not a few titles) no matter where he plays to reach the heights of Jordan or Russell in the annals.  That being the case, James needs to pick the very best place that gives him a chance to win, whether it be in New York or Memphis.  Right now, New York offers Amare and a bucket of crap in terms of players.  In theory, the Knicks can turn over the roster and build around LeBron and Amare but James would then be wasting several prime years to get there. So, New York should be a pretender here if James’ worries are what they logically should be.

(4)  Miami: They apparently already have Dwyane Wade and Bosh already, which should be a nice start to get James.  The problems here are that (1) James is reportedly not looking to share the spotlight with a pretty huge star like Wade and (2) that the Heat have virtually no other players on the roster besides Wade and Bosh and would need to build the roster up with wholesale changes (with a core of Bosh and Wade that shouldn’t be too hard).  As for the potential alpha male issues between having Wade and James, this shouldn’t be a big deal.  Admittedly, it is a bit odd to note that LeBron needs to win but must also do so in a manner that is emotionally comfortable to him.  Logically, a star should want the best players possible on his team but it is clear that some players have had issues with this over the years (Kobe and Shaq are the best remembered example but you can see such tensions with tons of teams all the way back to Wilt and Baylor with the Lakers).

(5)  New Jersey/Dallas/Los Angeles Clippers: New Jersey was a contender if they could’ve landed Chris Paul and a forward.  Now all the forwards but Lee are off the market and the Paul deal is reportedly dead.  So, James is out of play for Jersey.  Dallas was a dark horse for LeBron but we haven’t heard any indication that he is considering them now.  Finally, the Clipps had the cap space but all indications were that their attempts to woo James didn’t take.

Having said all that, where do you think is LeBron going again?

It seems the most logical place is back to Cleveland with an opt-out clause if things devolve in the next few years.  The Cavs are still pretty good with LeBron and the opt-out would give LeBron one more shot to find the right team if things don’t work out.

Is LeBron a narcissist?

A search of the terms LeBron and narcissist on Google yield a mere 17,200 results.  He seems to be enjoying the recruiting process more than you’d think.  Both he, Wade, and Bosh have been ubiquitous on television, Twitter, and any other medium you can think of.  (Bosh and Wade were reportedly shooting a documentary on the free agency process).  Combine that with James now seeking to announce his decision on ESPN at the culmination of a one-hour special definitely indicate a degree of self-absorption.  Clearly, James and the group have a healthy sense of worth and want to be the center of attention.  But is there anything wrong with this?  Let’s check the medical books…Narcissistic personality disorder is defined by the Mayo Clinic as “a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance and a deep need for admiration. Those with narcissistic personality disorder believe that they’re superior to others and have little regard for other people’s feelings. But behind this mask of ultra-confidence lies a fragile self-esteem, vulnerable to the slightest criticism.”

Of course, self-worth and confidence are good traits to have, particularly someone who is under the intense scrutiny that NBA stars are.  A study in Psychology Today in 2005 indicated that a mild narcissist can “float through life feeling pretty good about himself.”  Still, the narcissists expect special treatment, “are easily offended, and readily harbor grudges.”  This description doesn’t just match James but just about every athletic superstar in the American professional sports .  So, LeBron is a narcissist.  This isn’t necessarily a problem in moderation but a product of the world LeBron lives in and almost a foregone conclusion for a sports star.

-Despite having the two signatures franchises meet again, the Finals were hardly classic.  While both teams were very good defensively and were leaving everything on the floor, there were few compelling moments and the most memorable moments, namely the end of Game 7, were not played at the highest offensive level either.  While I enjoyed the series, there did seem to a bit of hypocrisy in hyping this as a great series.   In my mind, this series actually mirrored many of the plodding but competitive hard fought series of the 1990s, particularly the 1993-94 Finals between the Knicks and Rockets, which has been unfairly maligned as an ugly series by many.-Both the Lakers and the Celts also were unique in that they did not rate out great during the regular season.  In fact, Boston had only a 3.37 SRS, while the Lakers were a bit better at 4.78.  Between injuries and recovery, we could make post hoc rationalizations as to how the Celts and Lakers were better than they looked but the fact was Boston’s playoff run was almost unprecedented.  Very few teams with such a low SRS rating ever came so close to winning a title, no matter why they struggled in the regular season.  In case you’re wondering here’s is the year-by-year SRS ratings of the NBA Finalist since the Magic/Bird Era:

1979-80: 76ers (4.04) v. Lakers (5.43), Total SRS 9.47

1980-81: Celtics (6.05) v. Rockets (-0.20), Total SRS 5.85

1981-82: 76ers (5.74) v. Lakers (4.37), Total SRS 10.11

1982-83: 76ers (7.53) v. Lakers (5.06), Total SRS 12.59

1983-84: Celtics (6.42) v. Lakers (3.32), Total SRS 9.74

1984-85: Celtics (6.47) v. Lakers (6.48), Total SRS 12.95

1985-86: Celtics (9.06) v. Rockets (2.11), Total SRS 11.17

1986-87: Celtics (6.58) v. Lakers (8.32), Total SRS 14.90

1987-88: Pistons (5.46) v. Lakers (4.81), Total SRS 10.27

1988-89: Pistons (6.24) v. Lakers (6.38), Total SRS 12.62

1989-90: Pistons (5.41) v. Blazers (6.48), Total SRS 11.89

1990-91: Bulls (8.57) v. Lakers (6.73), Total SRS 15.30

1991-92: Bulls (10.07) v. Blazers (6.94), Total SRS 17.01

1992-93: Bulls (6.19) v. Suns (6.27), Total SRS 12.46

1993-94: Knicks (6.48) v. Rockets (4.19), Total SRS 10.67

1994-95: Magic (6.44) v. Rockets (2.32), Total SRS 8.76

1995-96: Bulls (11.80) v. Sonics (7.39), Total SRS 17.39

1996-97: Bulls (10.70) v. Jazz (7.97), Total SRS 18.67

1997-98: Bulls (7.24) v. Jazz (5.73), Total SRS 12.97

1998-99: Knicks (1.45) v. Spurs (7.12), Total SRS 8.57

1999-00: Pacers (4.16) v. Lakers (8.41), Total SRS 12.57

2000-01: 76ers (3.63) v. Lakers (3.74), Total SRS 7.37

2001-02: Nets (3.67) v. Lakers (7.15), Total SRS 10.82

2002-03: Nets (4.42) v. Spurs (5.65), Total SRS 10.07

2003-04: Pistons (5.04) v. Lakers (4.35), Total SRS 9.39

2004-05: Pistons (3.31) v. Spurs (7.84), Total SRS 11.15

2005-06: Heat (3.59) v. Mavericks (5.96), Total SRS 9.95

2006-07: Cavs (3.33) v. Spurs (8.35), Total SRS 11.68

2007-08: Celtics (9.31) v. Lakers (7.34), Total SRS 16.65

2008-09: Magic (6.49) v. Lakers (7.11), Total SRS 13.60

2009-10: Celtics (3.37) v. Lakers (4.78), Total SRS 8.15

SRS is definitely not the be all in determining how strong  the teams are in the Finals.  There are plenty of factors that it doesn’t capture, such as a late trade, recovery from injuries, or the number of really bad teams that might make a good team look better or worse than it might otherwise be.  Still, this year’s Lakers/Celts rate quite low on the SRS scale, with only the aggregate SRS of the teams in 1980-81 and 2000-01 rating lower.  The 1980-81 Finals is dragged down by the Rockets improbable run in a shorter playoff format (the only finalist with a negative SRS during this span), while the 2000-01 Lakers were one of the few “turn it on” teams that went from decent to juggernaut quickly.

The chart brings out another interesting but unrelated point that 1990s had some seriously good teams.  While we all wax poetic about the great Bird/Magic rivalry, Michael Jordan’s Bulls didn’t exactly have it easy.  The Blazers, Sonics, and Jazz of the 1990s were all on par with some of the 1980s icons (though not as good as the those 1980s teams were at their peaks).

-What about the legacy issue?  The popular notion coming out of this post-season is that Kobe Bryant has cemented himself as one of the greats, and potentially better than Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson.  On the Kobe/MJ front, I don’t buy that Bryant is near Jordan’s neighborhood.  Both the eye test and the stats and dovetail quite nicely here since both paint a picture of Jordan as a clearly better player.   In terms of pure perception, Jordan had many more memorable playoff games/moments and rarely looked as mortal as Bryant did against the Celtics in the Finals in 2008 and again in the 2010.  This perception may be formed only on anecdotal evidence but is surprisingly well backed up by the stats.  Kobe has been a great player but MJ’s career PER (which includes the Washington years) is basically the same as Kobe’s PER from his absolute peak season.  Even if you want to discount Jordan’s huge stat years before the Bulls won titles, the 1990-1997 version of MJ still ranks out at least as well as Kobe’s peak.

As for the Magic v. Kobe debate, the two players are near a dead heat in terms of stats and career accomplishments.  Bryant has the added benefit that he’ll likely have a much longer career (Johnson ostensibly was forced into retirement in 1991 at the same age that Kobe is now).  Putting aside career value, if I had to choose between building a team with an 18-year old Kobe or an 18-year old Magic for the next dozen years, Johnson is my slight favorite.  Obviously, Magic could never score or defend as well as Kobe but Johnson did so much on the court as a passer and rebounder, while also scoring quite well, that he is an easier building block to start with and one of the most unique players ever to play the game.

None of this is meant to disparage Kobe the player.  Bryant has emerged as clearly the second best two-guard since the Jerry West/Oscar Robertson times (we are agnostic about how strong West and Robertson would’ve been against modern competition).  In addition, the notion that Kobe needed to win these last two titles to validate his career or to prove how good he is also made little sense.  These last two titles are not a tribute to Kobe Bryant having an epiphany about how to play the perfect unselfish team game.  Rather, these titles are a tribute to the Lakers ability to surround Bryant with the talent and coach he needed to succeed.  Phil Jackson was a help but the fact that the Lakers were able to take Pau Gasol for virtually nothing, has changed Kobe’s reputation forever, just like the trade to the Celtics changed Kevin Garnett in 2007-08.

The takeaway lesson from this title is that while winning matters, so does context.  Few players, even the greatest of the great, can win without decent surrounding players.  If we are really trying to place the great players in historical context, we have to be realistic about the context in which the players actually played in.

The other thing this means is the 2010 draft has an outside shot to be one of the great center drafts ever. The reason is there are just so many talented big guys in this draft that a few of them emerging as stars isn’t a difficult thing to see. Of course to be considered a truly great center draft at least one player will need to emerge as an all-time great and the only player who would seem to have such potential going in is DeMarcus Cousins.

The best center drafts ever would be:

• 1992: Shaquille O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning: No draft with an all-timer featured a 2^nd-best center as good as Mourning. Until another draft produces and all-timer with another HOFer, 1992 is the best center draft ever.
• 1984: Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Willis: Hakeem ranks as an all-timer and Willis was a one-time all-star who played a long, productive career.
• 1956: Bill Russell, 1959 Wilt Chamberlain and 1969: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: I’m not going to rank one over the other here. These 3 are next in line, because the dominance of the individual involved even though no other prominent centers came out of the drafts.
• 1970: Bob Lanier, Dave Cowens and Dan Issel: Three HOFers and Cowens has a MVP to his credit.
• 1996: Marcus Camby, Jermaine O’Neal, Erick Dampier and Zydranus Ilgauskas: Even though there’s no player here who would top Ewing or Robinson, as a group I feel they’re strong enough to rank ahead of ’85 and ’87.
• 1985: Patrick Ewing, with a deep but unimpressive group of Benoit Benjamin, Jon Koncak, Joe Kleine, Bill Wennington and Manute Bol behind him. This was also the first year Ardvydas Sabonis was drafted, but this was by the Hawks. The Hawks never signed him and lost his rights after a season. He was selected by Portland in 1986 and came to the NBA 10 years later, so it is hard to include him here.
• 1987: David Robinson: Worth a mention here, but at the bottom of the best.

That’s about it. I didn’t include the drafts of the aughts, because they’re still incomplete. I’ll say that ’02: Yao and Stoudemire, ’04: Howard, ’05: Bogut and Bynum and ’07: Oden, Horford and Noah, all still have a shot at greatness. For the ’10 class to join the greats at least a couple of players would need to get to HOF level. I feel this is a real possibility, simply because of the sheer number of prospects who at the very least have something to like about them. With players so tall and long, the high end is much higher than it would be with forwards and guards. The chances that at least a few of the wide wingspan gang of 2010 exceed expectations is pretty good. If that happens, this is going to be a legendary center class.

But that is something for pundits to analyze some 20 years down the road. Right now most fans care only about the big LeBron sweepstakes. That could remake the league, so the interest is understandable. As far as the 2010 draft goes, here are the grades. As always, I grade on a curve. 3 As, 6 Bs, 12 Cs, 6 Ds and 3 Fs. I take into account mainly how much the team improved by how they used their draft picks, but some points are added/deducted for whether the pick was a reach or a good value.

A: Sacramento Kings: DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside: Might as well give the top grade to the team that drafted the two centers with the most upside in a potentially great center draft. The players join what is suddenly a tall and deep frontline in Sacramento. Both players were a great value for when they were drafted. Both players posted numbers in college that suggest they’re impact players in the NBA. These are the types of players teams should be drafting when they get a chance. Better to swing for the fences with players like this than draft a role player whose biggest asset is he’s a solid citizen. I’m not saying it isn’t important that teams weigh everything, including attitude and off court issues. But great players win in this leagues and any chance to acquire such a player should be jumped at. Solid role players are out there and fairly easy to find. The Kings have had 3 drafts in a row now that would rank between solid and excellent. Considering the competition in the Pacific division, they seem like the team most likely to step up and challenge the Lakers for divisional supremacy. The downside here is the Kings could be building the JailBlazers of the teens.

A: New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors and Damion James:  I’m glad they didn’t fall for Wesley Johnson’s allure. Derrick Favors is a very solid prospect and a potential star. He looks like he could play either PF or center and is one of the few players in the draft with a chance to become a perennial all-star. Damion James was good value for where they drafted. The fact that James came in the Kidd trade really isn’t a negative any longer as the Kidd era had run its course.  The Nets added two good pieces and appear to be in the running for the at least one impact FA, so it looks like they’ll have a good summer after a terrible season.

A: Philadelphia 76ers: Evan Turner: They got the best player in the draft and that’s never a bad thing. He’s the likely ROY and will go a long way toward getting this franchise back on track. The talent and situation for a big turnaround is here. They have a new coach in Collins. They have changed their rotation fairly significantly. There are youngsters in Holiday and Speights who seem ready to become forces. And they bring in Evan Turner who looks to me like a SF on the level of Grant Hill or Scottie Pippen. These things don’t always work out, but if there’s one team not involved in the FA royal rumble that seems primed for breaking out, it is Philly.

B: Washington Wizards: John Wall, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker and the right to pay Kirk Hinrich $17 million over 2 years. They gave up Antwawn Jamison’s really bad contract. The most important thing they got was a new start. What isn’t so good is that the guy who brought everything crashing down will be back and he plays the same position as Wall. We’ll see how that goes, but I doubt Arenas will be asked to stick around if he’s anything less than a strong, but humble veteran presence. Wall should be anywhere from solid to fantastic as a player. I’ve expressed some doubts that he’s on the level of Rose or Rondo, but he’s going to have a strong positive impact no matter what and that’s what this team needs right now. I’m also on board with the Hinrich deal. It netted them a center in what is a very deep crop. When a team is rebuilding the more young bodies brought in, the better. Hinrich will be expensive, but it is only for two years that will be spent mostly piecing together the team for the Wall era.  That lessens the impact of his oversized contract.

B: Oklahoma City Thunder: Added Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Tibor Pleiss and a future Clippers #1. The Thunder are a smart bunch. They’re buying when everyone is selling. They added a couple of centers to a frontcourt in need of some depth. Aldrich particularly could thrive here if asked only to rebound and defend. They also got a future Clippers #1 draft pick. Think about that. The Clippers are a team that has made the playoffs something like 4 times in 32 years. I know there is lottery protection on the pick, but that eventually wears off. Considering the history here, I like the odds of this turning into a very good deal.

B: Indiana Pacers: Paul George and Lance Stephenson: I like the George pick a lot. They got a player with good potential and a high enough floor that he brings good value whether he reaches his max potential or not. What I like best about the pick is it represents a change for the Pacers from the last couple of drafts. They had been going in the direction of drafting college stars with limited pro potential, specifically Brandon Rush and Tyler Hansbrough. I don’t know if this was an organizational philosophy, or just the way the draft fell for them. But in both cases they reached for a player with a rep bigger than his potential. George is the opposite. He’s a terrific athlete with the potential to become a star.

B: LA Lakers: Derrick Caracter and Devin Ebanks in round two. First round pick was sent to Memphis as part of the Pau Gasol trade. The Gasol deal has paid such huge dividends that they get upped to a B for whatever small part their use of this pick had in that deal. As for Caracter and Ebanks, I just don’t get why the defending champs would add a couple of guys with past attitude issues. Seriously, neither player has shown enough that they’re upside is worth the risk. The Lakers’ hold on the title is tenuous at best going into 2011. Anything that could bring them down a notch would likely prevent a repeat. The chance might be small, but why risk it with players like these two?

B: Milwaukee Bucks: Larry Sanders, Darington Hobson, Jerome James and Tiny Gallon: What I like about the Bucks’ draft is they went with the strength of the draft. I’m not sure I care much for when the players were drafted and in each case I would have taken a different player. But they added 3 centers in a draft that was strong at that position. There’s a good chance that one or two of the three will exceed expectations and make a strong impact. That they filled their perimeter needs before the draft by taking Maggette and Douglas-Roberts off the hands of teams looking to dump contracts suggests that this was a team with a plan that came together nicely.

B: San Antonio Spurs: James Anderson: Drafting low in round one, the Spurs have had no problem adding players like George Hill, Dujuan Blair and now James Anderson. While their continued elite status is tied to the continued health of Tim Duncan, this bunch is clearly going to do everything they can to keep the supporting cast strong. Anderson should be able to step right in and help out as a shooter.

C: Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis. Davis is a good fit and a great value for where he was drafted. The Raps could use a worker/grinder like Davis whether or not Bosh stays. Not that a solid workmanlike draftee coming in and doing better than expected is going to make up for losing Bosh. But they did well here.

C: Miami Heat: Dexter Pittman and Jarvis Vanardo. Traded pick to OKC with Daequan Cook for the cap relief that comes with it. The Heat went all in here. Putting themselves in place to add a couple of FAs to Wade is a great plan and there was certainly nothing available at 18 that could top this planned coup. Like the rest of the cap space teams, the grade is really an incomplete and the draft was inconsequential. What I like is they went big with Pittman and Vanardo in round 2. Should they land one or more big FAs to play next to Wade, players like this who can rebound and block shots will be good support players to have around.

C: Chicago Bulls: Traded pick for cap relief: I doubt any of the FA-obsessed teams changed their position for the positive as much as the Bulls. With enough cap space for two big deals, LeBron is less of an all-or-nothing type of deal. There are several different combinations of FAs whose addition to the core would vault the team to elite status. Of course ten years ago the Bulls were primed to add Grant Hill, Tim Duncan or Tracy McGrady to the young core of Elton Brand and Ron Artest. That didn’t go so well. Neither has any other big deal the Bulls have made in the post-dynasty era. Like Miami, this grade is really an incomplete. We’ll see in a few weeks whether or not this becomes an A+ or a F-.

C: Utah Jazz: Gordon Hayward: Their original pick went to Memphis in the Kyle Korver deal. This pick came from New York in a trade where they sent Tom Gugliotta to Phoenix. I think. Hayward was an OK pick here. He has enough upside to justify grabbing him this high. They also get kudos for turning Gugliotta into something good 6 years down the line. I’d also say dealing a late #1 pick was worth having Korver around.

C: Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe and Terrico White: I can’t say these are bad picks. Monroe looks like he’ll help inside and the Pistons could use such a player. White is a reach, but has shown some signs. The Pistons are a team in a bad place right now with some bad contracts that will likely strangle the team for at least a couple of years. Monroe and White are going to do little to change that.

C: Orlando Magic: Daniel Orton: Smart pick up. Orton’s value was down after a tough pre-draft run. He’s talented enough that bringing him in for a 2-year look at the cost of a late first round draft pick is a pretty smart move considering the potential payoff.

C: Minnesota Timberwolves: Wesley Johnson, Lazar Hayward, Hamady N’Diaye, Martell Webster, a couple of players they’ll stash overseas. The price for the #1’s was Ty Lawson and Rodney Carney. I guess my feeling is: This is all they got? In a draft where they held three #1s and six overall picks, they come away with 3 mediocre SFs, a couple of players stashed overseas and Hamady N’Diaye. The Timberwolves should have owned this draft and used it to rebuild their core. Instead they passed on a player with great potential for one with solid role player potential. Johnson was a crazy reach at #4. I know he has some nice skills, but passing on a franchise-changing talent like Cousins for him is the type of move that keeps franchises mired in mediocrity for years. The point of trading stars for future draft picks is that the future draft picks remake the team into a force again. I’m just not sure the Timberwolves get this.

C: Memphis Grizzlies: Xavier Henry, Greivis Vasquez and a couple million in exchange for sending Dominique Jones to division rival Dallas. Gave up Pau Gasol and Steven Hunter to acquire the extra picks. Henry and Vasquez are both good enough players for their draft positions. Henry gives them a gunner and potential all-star down the line, Vasquez can run an offense. Both should fit in the backcourt mix here. What bugs me is the same thing with the Timberwolves. This is a team that owned 3 #1 picks going in and this is the best they could do? The idea behind accumulating draft picks is to stock a team that is rebuilding for the future. The Grizzlies added a couple of OK pieces to a crowded backcourt, but really should have improved themselves a lot more.

C: Atlanta Hawks: Jordan Crawford: Good value and he could help in easing the possible loss of Johnson. He does duplicate what Jamal Crawford does some, but he’s a good player and a team never should try to limit how many of those are on the roster.

C: Dallas Mavericks: Original pick was part of deal for Jason Kidd. They paid a small amount to Memphis for Dominique Jones. This is a smart move by the Mavs, paying a pittance for the right to draft Dominique Jones. He’s a decent value at this point and bringing another good, young player is never a bad thing. The Kidd deal also still gets a thumbs up from me. It has helped the team stay competitive and relevant, even if the cost was a little high.

C: LA Clippers: Al-Farouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe and Willie Warren. Traded a future #1. Nothing here that blows me away, but I could make a case for each move individually. Aminu wasn’t the best player on the board at #8, but his upside could make him the best pick. Bledsoe never really got a chance to shine at Kentucky and his numbers suggest he could be something of a surprise in the pros. I was never on board with the hype that surrounded Warren, but he did fall too much and was a bargain when they got him. I don’t know that a team that frequents the lottery as often as the Clipps does should be so reckless in dealing future #1s. We’ll know more about this draft in a few years. All the players are young and will likely be brought along slowly.

C: Houston Rockets: Patrick Patterson: Patterson is a reach here. That isn’t to say that the clever bunch that operates this team won’t find a productive way to utilize him. They seem to go for players like Patterson whose best stat is a high FG pct. This is probably due to a preference for low-mistake role players. It works well for them, so I won’t be too critical. I can’t give them much more than a C though.

D: Portland Trailblazers: Added Luke Babbitt, Elliott Williams and Ryan Gomes, traded Martell Webster: Babbitt and Williams are both solid picks who should give the team the flexibility to go bigger or smaller. Williams might even solve the PG problem that has held the team back some during their rise. In talent they did better than most teams. The reason for the low grade is they fired the GM who built this team into a contender. Kevin Pritchard has owned the draft since his first one in 2006 and he has used the draft better than few GMs before or since to build his team into a contender. Despite his success the Blazers have decided to move forward without him and this seems like a mistake. GMs who are smarter than their peers are a rare thing. The Blazers had one and probably have no idea what they’re losing here. While Pritchard might eventually be remembered as the guy who passed on Kevin Durant for a center who never was healthy enough to make an impact, he was the one who built this Blazers team into what it is. If Oden can come back they’ll be right there with the Thunder and the winner of the LeBron sweepstakes battling for league supremacy in the teens. I hope Kevin Pritchard finds a new GM gig, because the draft is much more entertaining when he’s involved.

D: Cleveland Cavaliers: Traded pick for Antwawn Jamison. This was a trade that needed to be made and at the time it seemed like a great idea. But results matter. The championship eluded the Cavs again and now the franchise could be looking at losing their superstar and their status as an elite team along with it. This deal was an all-or-nothing proposition and so far it has come up with nothing. This isn’t Jamison’s fault, but life isn’t always fair.

D: Boston Celtics: Avery Bradley and Luke Harangody: The Celtics had a choice between potential and immediate help and went with the potential in Bradley. This is a “we’ll see” type of pick, but seems like a big reach to me. I wouldn’t have taken Bradley in round one, but his athleticism is obvious and someday he might turn into something special. The excuse seems to be that Texas was a bad place for him. I find that hard to swallow. I’m not sure it was the best place for him, but prospects haven’t exactly gone to Texas and died the past few years. There seems to be a good group of vets in Boston, so he’ll have no excuses here.

D: Denver Nuggets: Traded pick to Memphis along with Steven Hunter’s contract in a salary dump. I can’t say this was terribly harmful, but when the competition out west is using similar picks to grab potentially useful pieces like James Anderson and Dominique Jones, this doesn’t help. Had this been done to open up cap space I could understand, but this was done to lessen the luxury tax and isn’t likely to improve the team.

D: Golden State Warriors: Ekpe Udoh. This is a crazy reach. I’ll try to spin positive first. I understand how a team can fall in love with this guy. The sum of his parts is pretty impressive. He’s a shot blocker, a decent rebounder and he can hit an outside shot. I’ll add that in a fast-paced Warriors offense he could thrive. He does fit, because he can play center and he’s arguably a better prospect than Brandan Wright or Anthony Randolph were at this point. The problem with Udoh at 6^th is just it is too high to take him. I understand that the talent seriously leveled out at this point and this wasn’t the best place to be drafting. But Udoh’s upside is that of a very good role player. There were players here like George, Hayward, Monroe and Davis with much higher upside. A team just can’t reach this high for a player, no matter how much they like him.

D: Charlotte Bobcats: Pick went to Minnesota for Alex Anjica. Right now I can’t see where this is a positive. Anjica contributed little his first season and is now 22. He’s over 7’, so potential still exists, but if his first year is any indication, this deal looks like a mistake.

F: New Orleans Hornets: Craig Brackins and Quincy Pondexter: Craig Brackins in round one? Really, Hornets? Just look at the guys’ numbers and justify him as a first round draft pick. You can’t do it. In a draft that was thick with good forwards no less. There were better shooting combo forwards available and better rebounding power forwards available. This is the single most baffling selection of this draft. Pondexter is also a slight reach, but nowhere near the level of Brackins.

F: Phoenix Suns: First round pick went to Seattle (at the time) in exchange for taking Kurt Thomas and any realistic chance of winning a championship during the Nash-Stoudemire era off their hands. Even though the Suns were one of the great stories of this past year with their success, the team continues on the downward path they started on with deals like this. Even though it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Steve Nash checked in with another MVP-caliber season while leading a plucky bunch of overachievers to 50 wins in 2010-11, this bunch is headed down fast and that fall was accelerated by money-saving deals like this one.

F-: New York Knicks: Landry Fields and Andy Rautins: This might seem a tad harsh, because I rarely give out pluses or minuses. But the pick the Knicks gave up here was part of the fee that finally came due on the Stephon Marbury deal. That was the trade that basically turned the aughts into a lost decade for this franchise and there really is no way to spin this one. It didn’t matter if they had made 2 strong second round choices, nothing could have made the use of this draft pick right. For the record Fields is a solid pick, Rautins, not so much. Now the Knicks can set their sights toward LeBron and others in the hope that their franchise-defining big deal of the teens turns out a little better than the last decade.

Point Guard 

1. John Wall
2. Jeremy Lin
3. Greivis Vasquez
4. Dee Bost
5. Ben Uzoh
6. Armon Johnson
7. Mikhail Torrance

This is John Wall and not much else. I like Lin quite a bit as a sleeper pick in round 2 and Vasquez as a good career journeyman, but other than that this group of PGs just isn’t up to par with recent years. 

Combo Guard 

1. Eric Bledsoe
2. Avery Bradley
3. Jon Scheyer
4. Willie Warren
5. Devan Downey
6. Andy Rautins
7. Matt Bouldin
8. Nate Rohnert
9. Rodney Green 

Not a wildly impressive group either. Bledsoe and Bradley still have some intrigue as highly-touted freshmen. Scheyer is an intangibles guy and Warren could become a pretty good scorer. But there’s no player here who should be considered before pick #20.

Shooting Guards 

1. James Anderson
2. Xavier Henry
3. Jordan Crawford
4. Elliott Williams
5. Dominique Jones
6. Manny Harris
7. Aubrey Coleman
8. Scottie Reynolds
9. Terrico White
10. Sylven Landesberg 

Not a bad group. I feel Anderson and Crawford are both undervalued going in and any of the top 5 are worthy of a post-lottery first-rounder. 

SG/SFs 

1. Evan Turner
2. Paul George
3. Landry Fields
4. Tyler Smith
5. Lance Stephenson
6. Marqus Blakely 

Players who fit somewhere between SG and SF. They could end up playing either position, so I just separated them. Turner is the best player in the draft. Paul George is a player worthy of a top 10 pick and Landry Fields is a solid late first-rounder. This is a pretty strong group. 

Small Forwards 

1. Wesley Johnson
2. Gordon Hayward
3. Tyren Johnson
4. Darington Hobson
5. Lazar Hayward
6. Quincy Pondexter
7. Devin Ebanks
8. Stanley Robinson 

My advice to any team thinking of taking Wes Johnson at 3 or 4 is: Draft the best big guy and go for another Johnson, Tyren, in round 2. There is some good quality here, but as a group this bunch is a tad overrated. 

Combo Forwards 

1. Damion James
2. Al-Farouq Aminu
3. Luke Babbitt
4. Trevor Booker
5. Patrick Patterson
6. Craig Brackins
7. Charles Garcia

This is a strong group for this position. There’s a little bit of everything. James is a solid player. After him we have the project, Aminu; the gunner, Babbitt; the defender, Booker; and the team player, Patterson. 

Power Forwards 

1. Derrick Favors
2. Ed Davis
3. Jarvis Vanardo
4. Luke Harangody
5. Derrick Caracter
6. Dwayne Collins
7. Gani Lawal

A decent group, but after Favors most of the buzz in the frontcourt has been around combo forwards and centers, rightfully so. 

PF/Centers 

1. Greg Monroe
2. Larry Sanders
3. Ekpe Udoh
4. Tiny Gallon

I decided to separate these guys from the centers or PFs. They’ll play both positions at the next level and I’m doing a lot of separating into groups and sub-groups this year, so this makes sense. I don’t see a dominating player in these four. Monroe could become one of those star role players, but that’s the high end for any of these four. 

Centers 

1. DeMarcus Cousins
2. Hassan Whiteside
3. Cole Aldrich
4. Daniel Orton
5. Dexter Pittman
6. Omar Samhan
7. Solomon Alabi
8. Hamady N’Daiye
9. Brian Zoubek
10. Jeff Foote

This is a class that has the potential to be legendary. It also has the potential to be very disappointing. If nothing else that should make this a fun group to watch over the years. Teams that pass on Cousins, Whiteside and possibly Orton eventually could come to rue this draft day. The centers seem to be the top foreign position also. As to where that group would rank here, I’d place them in the 5-10 range without putting too much analysis into it.