Carter-Williams had his issues with scoring efficiency this year, but he also posted some very impressive numbers in defense and passing. He finished with an 8.3 A40 and a 9.1 RSB40. These are totals few players have ever put together in the same season. Here’s a look at other NCAA major college PGs who posted an A40 over 8.0 along with an RSB40 over 9.0:

Payton’s numbers were posted in his senior season, Tinsley’s his junior, Miller’s his sophomore. This is some pretty fast company Carter-Williams finds himself with. We have a couple of top 10 all-time PGs.  Also there’s Andre Miller, who is still going strong at 36 and Jamaal Tinsley, a solid player who the league just doesn’t know how to quit. Even if I were to lower the standard to 8.0 RSB40 along with the 8.0 A40, the players added to the list—Rod Strickland, Randy Brown, Ray Felton, Kenny Anderson, Brevin Knight, Greg Anthony and Pooh Richardson—are all players who went on to long NBA careers.

The good thing for Carter-Williams here is all PGs who have shown the ability to pass and defend this well, have had some level of long-term NBA success regardless of how impressive or poor their offensive numbers were.  Tinsley, Brown, Felton, Knight and Richardson all fell short of the .500 2-point percentage benchmark in college ball, but still went on to long careers because of their extraordinary defense/passing combination.  To repeat, any player who posted 8+ A40 and RSB40 in a season playing for a major college has gone on to play a long NBA career. That Carter-Williams is part of this club makes him an excellent long term NBA prospect.

This isn’t to say his inefficient scoring isn’t a problem. Carter-Williams scored only 13.5 P40 with percentages of .441 and .297. Those are very poor prospect numbers. No team wants to use a lottery pick on the next Randy Brown or Brevin Knight. Likewise no team wants to draft a player who will sit on their bench for 3 years then watch him develop into a star elsewhere. Here are the numbers of a couple of other big PGs in their sophomore seasons who developed their games significantly in subsequent years:

Both Payton and Billups were better scorers at this point in their careers and Carter-Williams has yet to show consistent 3-point ability. I post this comp not to suggest that Carter-Williams is a future HOFer just waiting to bust out, though that is a far high end possibility. But it is important to know that players aren’t always complete as college sophs and there is a history of big PGs developing their games quite a bit after their sophomore seasons.

Another thing to note is that Carter-Williams’ scoring skills are probably a little better than they appear in the cumulative stats. Here are his monthly breakdowns from this year compared with his freshman year:

His freshman season was only 269 minutes, the majority of which were logged in November and December when the schedule is always easier. He also topped 8.0 A40 and 9.0 RSB40 as a freshman, which is impressive. There was a lot of variance during his sophomore year. He started off as a dominator, before a brutal shooting slump in January really brought his efficiency down. The good part here is that he adjusted and improved his efficiency from both inside and outside the arc during the season. A 2-point percentage in the 47-48% range in February and March, when the schedule is much more difficult isn’t a huge negative. That he improved while maintaining solid passing and defensive numbers is actually pretty impressive. The bad part is even at his best the P40 remained low.

In Michael Carter-Williams we have a player who is almost certain to have a long NBA career based on his stats. His raw skills give him an outside chance to eventually become one of the top PGs in the league and a perennial all-star, which is something that can be said about only a few prospects each year. That makes him an intriguing prospect. Right now his arc is somewhere between journeyman and perennial all-star.  Because I generally prefer upside in prospects I would have to rank him as the top PG available in the 2013 draft. The only reason to draft Trey Burke ahead of him would be if it were for a team that absolutely needed immediate help at PG and the draft was the only place they could fill this need.

That isn’t to say there’s no risk in drafting such a player. Any team taking Carter-Williams has to realize that he’s a developmental pick with who won’t have much immediate impact and may never reach his full potential. I certainly understand why a team would pass on such a player. In 1997 the Celtics drafted future great PG Chauncey Billups with the 3^rd overall pick. Billups was traded in February of his rookie year for veteran Kenny Anderson who gave the Celtics 3 so-so years. That’s not much of a payoff for the 3^rd overall pick. Billups’ early career is why, despite the upside, drafting Michael Carter-Williams too high in the lottery could become a similar draft day disaster.

In order to achieve success in basketball or any sports, professional athletes must possess tough psychological attributes. Sport psychologists believe that peak performance requires not only physical ability but also psychological skills. Did you know that by spending 30 minutes of playing Partypoker online you could improve your psychological skills necessary to achieve success in your desired sport? Athletes possess good physical abilities and incredible mental toughness in order to defeat their opponents. By playing poker, you’re able to develop your focus and determination through a game that you enjoy playing.

According to licensed psychologist and avid poker player Dr. Stephen Bloomfield, poker is a competition in which stress and your responses to stress can make you successful in sport. Whether you’re a novice or a professional poker player joining the 2013 WPT Lucky Hearts Open in Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Hollywood, having tough mental skills allows you to handle stress and remain focused on the competition, as well as dealing with various distractions during the game. In basketball, players are exposed to personal fouls involving a player saying offensive things to distract his opponent. By playing poker, you develop a sense of concentration that allows you to maintain focused and resist external variables.

Aside from focus, another important psychological attribute you must develop is determination. With determination, all realistic personal goals can be attained such as grabbing the next championship title or making more rebounds than in your previous games. In poker, players are highly committed to win either by having the best hand or by bluffing their way to win the next big pot. By setting realistic long-term and short-term goals, you can achieve greater heights in poker, basketball, or any sport in which you participate.

Successful basketball players and professional athletes engage themselves in various brain training activities to strengthen their psychological attributes. If you learn how to manage your attention and to establish achievable goals, then you’re one step closer to becoming the next Most Valuable Player in NBA.

Is Sam Bowie a tragic figure?  Traditional lore paints him either as: (a) they guy who was taken over Michael Jordan and who crapped out or (b) the guy who overcome crippling injuries to become a pretty good center.  With the recent Bowie article and documentary on ESPN, the focus has returned to Bowie.  I haven’t seen the documentary but the article lets out a revelation that Bowie knew of potential leg problems in his pre-draft physical with the Blazers but did not disclose the pain he felt.   Aside from Bowie’s physical with Portland and some details of his childhood, the article provide much in the way of some the other details of his career.  Let’s go a little deeper and see if we can find a few more interesting factoids and fill in a few holes:

Bowie was an old draft pick and his rookie numbers were only okay

While many more players lasted all four years back in the early 1980s, Bowie, was already 23 his rookie season (and turned 24 in March of his rookie year) because he redshirted two years with a broken leg.  Bowie missed one year with a cast and when that didn’t work, he had a bone graft from his hip to help fix the leg, causing him to miss yet another season.  Injuries aside, one would expect a 23-year old to be pretty close to fully formed as a player.  Both Patrick Ewing and Ralph Sampson were also 23-year old rookies but they looked like much more promising prospects as rookies.  Take a look at rookie stats of all three:

-Bowie: 29.2 mpg, 10.0 ppg, .537 FG%, 8.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.7 bpg, 15.7 PER

-Ewing: 35.4 mpg, 20.0 ppg, .474 FG%, 9.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.1 bpg, 3.5 topg, 17.4 PER

-Sampson: 32.8 mpg, 21.0 ppg, .523 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.4 bpg, 3.6 topg, 20.1 PER

Bowie’s circumstances were totally different than those of Ewing and Sampson.  Unlike the other two rookies, Bowie’s 1984-85 Blazers were a decent team (42-40) and already had some scorers: Kiki Vandeweghe (22.4 ppg), Mychal Thompson (18.4 ppg), Jim Paxson (17.9 ppg), and Clyde Drexler (17.2 ppg).  Even so, I can’t really find another rookie center who played so much who was unable to make an impact scoring.  Bowie blocked and passed better than both Ewing and Sampson and rebounded better than Ewing but the numbers showed that we were not looking at a blossoming offensive force.

Rather, Bowie had a minuscule 14.8 usage rate and 3.7 free throws per 36 minutes compared to a 26.5 usage for Ewing and 6.2 free throws per game and a 27.1 usage and 5.8 free throws per game for Sampson.  Assuming health for Bowie going forward as a rookie, he looked more likely to be a Dikembe Mutombo-lite player:  a high percentage offensive/lowish usage player who could board and block a bit.  This is quite a good player but is not superstar big.

Bowie’s NCAA numbers portended some problems

Yes, if given another shot, Portland probably would’ve taken the best player ever over an injured center but the decision was perfectly rational at the time.  The Blazers had tons of perimeter players and no one could reasonably have predicted MJ would be as good as he was but Bowie’s college numbers did reveal some issues.  Bowie was not the same player in college before and after the broken leg.  Here are his numbers from 1980-81 and after his return in 1983-84 after two years off:

1980-81:  32.0 mpg, 17.4 ppg, .520 FG%, 5.9 fta/pg, 9.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.8 topg, 2.9 bpg,

1983-84: 28.8 mpg, 10.5 ppg, .516 FG%, 3.7 fta/pg, 9.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.9 topg, 1.9 bpg

The 1983-84 Bowie was way down in scoring and getting to the basket.  Even if healthy, this had to raise a red flag to the Blazers that he wasn’t quite the same player.   The Blazers seemed to realize this.  In Filip Bondy’s interesting book on the 1984 Draft, “Tip Off,” he detailed the Blazers giving Bowie a seven-hour physical and him passing with flying colors but did not have expectations that Bowie would be a star scorer.   Blazers’ GM Stu Inman didn’t talk about the decline in scoring but noted that “I wouldn’t rate him as an exceptional shooter….[but he is] a kid who will pay more harmoniously in structure than away from structure and [coach] Jack Ramsay runs a structured system.”  Ramsay also was unconcerned with a star and said that the Blazers had a good team and were hyper focused on adding a center between Bowie, Hakeem Olajuwon, or Patrick Ewing (who had a chance of leaving school early that year), noting that “[a]ll our talks centered around those three guys.”

Finally, Bondy noted that Bowie’s, at the time of the 1984 Draft, shared an agent with Jim Paxson, the agent had a great relationship with Portland.  This allowed Portland to re-sign Paxson and get Bowie into camp quickly in one fell swoop.

Could we have known how good MJ was?

No.  Just for fun, here are Jordan’s final college season numbers versus other guards drafted in that pre-historic era (remember the shot clock and three-point shot weren’t introduced in the NCAA until 1985 and 1986 respectively):

-Michael Jordan (1983-84): 29.5 mpg, 19.6 ppg, .551 FG%, 4.7 fta/pg, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 2.2 topg, 1.1 bpg, 1.6 spg

-Alvin Robertson (1983-84): 34.7 mpg, 15.5 ppg, .499 FG%, 5.7 fta/pg, 5.5 rpg, 6.0 apg, 4.3 topg, 0.4 bpg, 2.9 spg

-Byron Scott (1982-83): 36.5 mpg, 21.6 ppg, .513 FG%, 5.7 fta/pg, 5.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.3 topg, 0.3 bpg, 1.8 spg

-Dale Ellis (1982-83): 36.8 mpg, 22.6 ppg, .601 FG%, 6.9 fta/pg, 6.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.3 topg, 0.1 bpg, 1.6 spg

-Jeff Malone (1982-83): 36.9 mpg, 26.8 ppg, .531 FG%, 5.5 fta/pg, 3.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.7 topg, 0.1 bpg, 0.9 spg

-Darrell Walker (1982-83): 36.8 mpg, 18.2 ppg, .527 FG%, 7.9 fta/pg, 5.7 rpg, 3.3 apg, 3.9 topg, 0.4 bpg, 2.8 spg

-Clyde Drexler (1982-83): 34.9 mg, 15.9 ppg, .536 FG%, 2.8 fta/pg, 8.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.7 topg, 0.5 bpg, 3.3 spg

It’s hard to see, without weighing the relative strength of conferences, any compelling statistical evidence that MJ was, head and shoulders, the best of the group.  He does standout as efficient in terms of shooting and turnovers but the one area that he excels is in blocks.  None of the other guards is even close to him in that category (also note that the second best guard of the group in the NBA, Clyde was second in blocks).   The short answer is that Jordan had some statistical indicators of being special (in addition to his storied career at UNC) but nothing incredibly glaring.  Recognizing and Jordan’s greatness had to come more from the scouting department than the stats department (assuming one existed then).

Should Bowie have lied about his leg to the Blazers?

As noted above, Bowie was thoroughly examined by Portland including x-rays, and the old-fashioned reflex test which hurt but he did not disclose this fact (Bowie told ESPN recently he didn’t remember getting an MRI).  According to the recent ESPN article, Bowie said that “I went through that physical, my leg was killing me that day. It really was.”  Should Bowie have been more forthright?  I’m sure the ethicist at the New York Times would draw distinctions between lack of disclosure and affirmative lying but let’s be real…no one would disclose the pain with millions on the line.  Bowie let them take scans and was sufficient disclosure over Bowie’s subjective complaints of pain under the circumstances.  If Portland misread the scans or took the wrong type of scan that is its own fault.

Was Bowie’s injury in college exacerbated by the wrong treatment?

Interesting question…According to the recent ESPN article, Bowie had “brittle bones” but didn’t explain too much more and Bondy called the fracture one that needed surgery and not rest.  Interestingly, Sports Illustrated had an extensive write up on Bowie’s leg in 1987, interviewing the doctor at Kentucky who treated Bowie and Portland’s team physician at the time.  Kentucky’s physician, Dr. George Gumbert said that rest was prudent because “[i]n a pro athlete, where his bread-and-butter depends on his ability to play, I would operate sooner. In a college athlete, I’d be less inclined to operate since the complications of surgery aren’t insignificant. In a way I’m sorry I didn’t operate sooner in Bowie’s case….If we operate sooner and we’re successful, then everything’s great.  If we operate and there are complications, then we may have ruined this lad.”

Portland’s physician, Dr. Bob Cook, noted that surgery made sense for Bowie in retrospect because “I would try to avoid the prolonged cast time.  It’s hard to overcome the atrophy.”  The article also goes on to note several other players who suffered from too much surgery (particularly Bill Walton).   Bowie’s feeling: “I never thought for one minute that I would miss two years of basketball in college.  For a little hairline crack to heal? I missed one year to try the natural healing process. I missed another year after the surgery.  Hindsight’s 20/20, but I got nothing out of that year in the cast.”

Bowie the pro

After his rookie year, Bowie was never healthy again for Portland, playing only 63 games over the next four seasons.   In 1989, the Blazers traded Bowie and a first-round pick (who ended up being Mookie Blaylock) to the Nets for Buck Williams.   Bowie then went on to have four straight healthy years with the Nets, playing at least 62 games every year and playing about 30 mpg those years.  He peaked at 15.0 pph and 8.1 ppg in 30.7 mpg in 1991-92 and a 16.4 PER.  Essentially, he was a solid above average center that he had been that rookie year in Portland.

My favorite personal memory of Bowie is not particularly well-remembered.  In his final season, 1994-95, he played backup center for the Lakers when they came to Jersey early in the year.  I was one of the few Nets fans at the times and hustled out to NJ and saw a great double overtime thriller.  All game, Derrick Coleman tried dog Bowie and out-athleticize his older former teammate with some taunting thrown in for good measure.  Bowie, though, did not stop working and ended up getting several key points, including a tip in that helped clinch the game (he had 10 pts, 8 rebs in 26 minutes).  At the end, Bowie gingerly left the court without talking any trash at all as DC remained collapsed in an literal and emotional heap on the floor.  I couldn’t help but feel good for Bowie at that moment.

Bowie, biggest miss?

Maybe.  Here’s a list of the second picks overall since 1980 and the player the second pick should’ve been:

-1980, actual: Darrell Griffith, best: Kevin McHale

-1981, actual: Isiah Thomas, best: Isiah Thomas

-1982, actual: Terry Cummings, best: Dominique Wilkins

-1983, actual: Steve Stipanovich, best: Clyde Drexler

-1984, actual: Sam Bowie, best: Michael Jordan

-1985, actual: Wayman Tisdale, best: Karl Malone

-1986, actual: Len Bias, best: Jeff Hornacek

-1987, actual: Armen Gilliam, best: Scottie Pippen

-1988, actual: Rik Smits, best: Mitch Richmond

-1989, actual: Danny Ferry, best: Shawn Kemp

-1990, actual: Gary Payton, best: Gary Payton

-1991, actual: Kenny Anderson, best: Dikembe Mutombo

-1992, actual: Alonzo Mourning, best: Alonzo Mourning

-1993, actual: Shawn Bradley, best: Sam Cassell

-1994, actual: Jason Kidd, best: Jason Kidd

-1995, actual: Antonio McDyess, best: Kevin Garnett

-1996, actual: Marcus Camby, best: Kobe Bryant

-1997, actual: Keith Van Horn, best: Chauncey Billups

-1998, actual: Mike Bibby, best: Dirk Nowitzki

-1999, actual: Steve Francis, best: Shawn Marion

-2000, actual: Stromile Swift, best: Michael Redd

-2001, actual: Tyson Chandler, best: Pau Gasol

-2002, actual: Jay Williams, best: Amare Stoudemire

-2003, actual: Darko Milicic, best: Dwyane Wade

-2004, actual: Emeka Okafor, best: Andre Iguodala

-2005, actual: Marvin Williams, best: Chris Paul

-2006, actual: LaMarcus Aldridge, best: LaMarcus Aldridge

-2007, actual: Kevin Durant, best: Kevin Durant

-2008, actual: Michael Beasley, best: Kevin Love

-2009, actual: Hasheem Thabeet, best: James Harden

-2010, actual: Evan Turner, best: TBD but currently Greg Monroe

-2011, actual: Derrick Williams, best: TBD but currently Klay Thompson or Kenneth Faried

-2011, actual: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, best: TBD but maybe Kidd-Gilchrist or Damian Lillard

Quite a few misses here besides Bowie, including a similar situation where the Pacers took big man with injury issues in Stipanovich over a slasher in Drexler.  Some of the misses weren’t realistically foreseeable either (who knew Marion would be better than Francis?).  Of cases where a team should’ve known better at the time, arguably Darko over Wade (or Bosh or Anthony) and Marvin Williams over Chris Paul are less defensible than even Bowie/Jordan.  A sleeper bad pick is Beasley over Love (and Thabeet over Harden will look uglier with time).

Conclusion

No one could’ve known how good MJ was but Portland did have the tools to know that: (a) Bowie might be an injury risk and (b) his post-fracture numbers showed some serious decline.  While Bowie fit neatly into the team they had, such short term goals are often forgotten over the long term goal of having the most possible talent.  Moral of the story:  do not draft for need, take the best available and you almost always come out ahead.

The 2013 class so far is playing out as expected, though some individuals have surprised me. Davis is showing great promise. Behind him there are a mix of surprises and disappointments, but no other player who looks like a surefire star just yet. They remain an intriguing group that should be fun to watch develop. To be sure it’s very early. One thing I’m fairly certain of is there’s a rookie languishing on a bench somewhere who will step in and become a big contributor fairly soon.

1. Anthony Davis. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is the rookie with the best long term future and remains the top bet for ROTY. He missed some time with a concussion, but the early numbers suggest Davis is everything we thought he was. He’s 5^th in the league in blocks, a place he should hold onto or improve. He’s one of the top per minute scorer among rookies. He’s the top rebounding rookie. The concussion may have him behind Lillard in the “if the ROTY were awarded today based on stats so far” lists, but Davis remains by far the best long term prospect and the top bet for the award.
2. Damian Lillard, Portland: Lillard leads all rookies in PPG and minutes per game. Those are the most important stats for a ROTY candidate. Because there isn’t another legit PG on the Blazers roster, it seems likely he’ll continue to get 38 minutes per game and continue to pour in points. This makes him a legit threat to Davis for ROTY. I believed it was a mistake to hand an NBA PG job to guy player who just a year ago had been a high-scoring small college combo guard whose passing skills were moderate at best. Early returns suggest I’ll be eating crow, or crowfu as I’m a vegan, on this opinion. His passing still has a ways to go, but Lillard is clearly an NBA scorer who has helped make the Blazers a borderline playoff contender. That Lillard has settled in so quickly and effectively is a testament to his smarts and ability.
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte: He’s one of the best players on a team that’s looking like one of the league’s best stories for 2013 and that will mean something when the awards are handed out. Charlotte has a winning record after 7 games, following a year they set the record for lowest winning percentage. It’s early for both the team and the player. The Bobcat’s roster still has a talent deficit problem. Kidd-Gilchrist seems unlikely to rack up the scoring totals necessary to win the award. But should the Bobcats keep this up and sneak into the playoffs, some voters may be willing to appreciate the all-around contributions Kidd-Gilchrist brought to such an effort
4. Dion Waiters, Cleveland: His start has featured flashes of greatness, but also some games where he shot 3-16 or 5-15. His game against the Clippers was one of the best performances by a rookie so far this year. He’s a scorer on a team that needs points, so it’s no stretch at all to see him as a 20+ PPG guy based on his college stats and early returns. But if the games with inefficient shooting pile up, he could find himself on the bench more often. Right now he could go either way.
5. Harrison Barnes, Golden State: He had been invisible until the last couple of games when he led the team scoring in a couple of badly needed Warrior wins. If such performances become commonplace, he’ll get into the discussion. I’m still leery of Barnes as a long term force in the league. He will score points on occasion, but the rest of his game remains weak. He’s still posting the weak defense and passing numbers that marked his time at North Carolina.
6. Andre Drummond, Detroit: So far he’s been impressive. In only 15 minutes per game he’s hitting 70% of his shots and is rebounding at a much higher rate than he did at UConn last year. It looks like they’re taking things slowly with Drummond. While that will cost him a shot at the ROTY, it’s probably a good thing for his long term development. Long term his future looks much better than it did on draft day. This is a case where getting out of college and into the pros was clearly the best thing for the player.
7. Bradley Beal, Washington: A very slow start. Beal has hit 31% of his 2-pointers and the Wizards are winless. He should get this right, or at least improve on it. He’ll find himself on the bench if he doesn’t. As the 3^rd overall pick, he’ll get more of a chance to get it right than most.
8. Maurice Harkless and Andrew Nicholson, Orlando: The Magic are eventually going to look to the future and will want to get a feel for whether or not their 2013 rookies are going to be part of their future. Both have shown some promise in limited minutes and should get more time.
9. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto: He’s in a similar situation to Drummond. That’s a young center destined to spend the year getting low minutes with an eye on the future. He doesn’t have the eye-popping numbers that Drummond has posted, but he’s been OK.
10. Jae Crowder, Dallas: Crowder has put in some nice minutes as a Maverick reserve. His time could be trimmed once Nowitzki returns. Whether the minutes continue or not, Crowder looks like he can be an effective rotation player.

The East has 4 bad teams, 2 teams that could crash the playoffs should everything go right but are more likely to finish solidly in the lottery, 3 bubble playoff teams, 5 pretenders and the Heat who will almost certainly win the conference again.

Here are my projections. The records are calculated as the West records were. Basically math followed by tweaking. Records are listed in reverse order, with the top 8 teams hitting the playoffs.

15. Orlando Magic: 14-68: My guess is they’ll be the worst team in the league and that’s by design. The only explanation for the “haul” they received in exchange for the game’s best center is the rebuilding game plan is to get bad as quickly as possible so they can get good again as quickly as possible. They’ll load up on draft picks and hope for a big score in a future lottery. They’re skipping the part where there’s a futile attempt to stay competitive with the 60 cents on a dollar talent typically received for a superstar. This isn’t a terrible plan, but in the first year is always ugly. Any veteran of value will be on the block for draft picks. The best case scenario has the remaining players from the Howard era take a circle the wagons approach, and come out of the gate with a spirited run that carries them to 30+ wins. The problem with that is the veterans remaining on the rosters are a group of role players whose defensive weaknesses were covered by Howard’s presence. Without Howard the weak defense of the likes of Redick, Nelson and Turkoglu is going to become a much bigger issue. I see things in Orlando falling apart quickly.

14. Charlotte Bobcats: 16-66: They were bad last year and did little in the offseason to lift themselves up from the depths. The draft brought a player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who is better cast as a super role player than some sort of savior. He’ll help, but not enough to lift this bunch to 20+ wins. I do feel they’ll improve enough that they won’t threaten last year’s record bad winning percentage. There are a lot of young players on the roster and that always points the arrow up. The Bobcats remain at least a couple of drafts away from relevance.

13. Detroit Pistons: 20-62: This record is probably a little tough. I tried to tweak some of the records that just didn’t look right, but I can only do so much. To defend the projection, I’ll say that the Pistons have not done a good job drafting and acquiring free agents in their attempts to get back to the level they were in the mid-aughts. Other than Greg Monroe the talent here just isn’t that special. As they stand now, the roster has a promising young center, but a big hole at PF, not much on the wing and an unproven PG whose college numbers project him as a bust. This could well be the year poor personnel decisions of the past will come back to bite the Pistons.

12. Cleveland Cavaliers: 23-59: The Cavs picked a real bad time to get dumped by their superstar. The two drafts that should have served as a start of a rebuilding may have been the worst back-to-back drafts ever in terms of overall talent. While the Cavs have done a nice job with what was available and are forming a decent young core, they’re still at least a couple of more young studs away from looking like a team of the future. Kyrie Irving is definitely a top PG and he’s a good start on the rebuilding.

11. Toronto Raptors: 25-57: The big problem the Raptors have is the two leading scorers, Andrea Bargnini and Demar Derozan, are not only inefficient scorers, but add little in the way of rebounding, defense and passing. Both are the type of player who would might work in the role of 3^rd option or as offense off the bench on a contender. Neither is talented enough to be one of the top options on a good team. The Raptors will not get out of the lottery as long as these two are the top offensive options on the team. What this year could become for the Raps is the start of the Valanciunas era. The center, drafted #5 overall in 2010, was impressive in Europe last year and should bring some hope in what looks like an otherwise bleak year.

10. Washington Wizards: 32-50: I don’t like the trades the Wizards made in the last year and over the summer in their quest to crash the playoffs. That’s reflected in this projection. I know they have designs on the playoffs and went all-in with trades of some youngsters for Okafor, Nene and Ariza. Honestly the players they brought in just aren’t all that good. Okafor has been in decline for years. Nene is 30, battling injuries and comes with a bad contract. Ariza just isn’t all that good. Their coach, Randy Wittman, brings a career .331 winning pct. into his 3^rd NBA coaching stint, which is another reason to be pessimistic. They could hit the playoffs if everything goes right. The biggest development would be John Wall stepping up in his 3^rd season as the all-star he was projected to become. If that doesn’t happen, the trades are more likely to send the team backwards to another rebuilding plan in a couple of years than turn them into a contender.

7. (tie) Milwaukee Bucks: 39-43: The Bucks, Nets and Hawks are all pretty close, so I’m going to bunch all 3 together in the final 2 playoff spots and let the tiebreaker sort things out at the end of the year. The Bucks remade themselves with the Bogut-Ellis trade last season. While the idea of dealing a borderline all-star center for a borderline all-star SG is usually a bad one, The Bucks could come out of this one OK. Ellis’s scoring prowess should allow PG Brandon Jennings to concentrate more on play-making, which is what he does best. Another thing to like about the Bucks is they’ve stockpiled some young, athletic size in players like Ekpe Udoh, John Henson and Larry Sanders. If one or more of these youngsters develops into a valuable energy player, that’s going to give the team quite a boost. The young bigs and Scott Skiles ability to get production out of them is a wild card that makes me think the Bucks have a slight edge on the Hawks and Nets when it comes to hitting the playoffs.

7. (tie) Brooklyn Nets: 39-43: The Nets have spared no expense to remake the team into  a borderline playoff contender.  The playoffs are damn near mandatory for this bunch, since they’re acting like one of the East’s elite. What the Nets have in their favor is the owner does appear willing to take on any contract he can to make this team competitive. That could be either a help or a hindrance, depending on the contracts they decide to take on. The long term problem is the Nets are locked into some really bad contracts for the next few years to a group that has very little upside. While I’m sure it is a fun thing to have a professional sports team back in Brooklyn, there’s a lot of work to be done here before they join the elite of the East. As it stands the team is too weak defensively to contend for anything but a lower seed. There are very few tradable assets on the roster, because the roster is full of overpaid players on long-term contracts. The fact that the brain trust seems ready to pull out all the stops to make this team great is a good thing. But they’re a long way from that point now. Going into the 2013 season this looks like a team that will struggle to make the playoffs.

7. (tie) Atlanta Hawks: 39-43: This projection kind of puzzled me. I think the system was kind of hard on Horford for his injury-hindered season in 2012. They’ll probably be better than this, but they’ve fallen behind the rest of East pretenders, so the 7 seed seems about right. Even if they finish better than this, there’s little about the Hawks to suggest they’re ready to make the leap from pretender to contender. There’s a new GM in town. As is the case with Eastern teams, he’s an ex-player coming off a stint that would have to be called a failure. He’s already dealt one of the main pieces, Joe Johnson, from the team’s recent playoff run and another piece, Josh Smith, seems to always be on the block. The Hawks look like a team that’s going to spend the year deciding on what direction the team will be taking now that the Johnson-Horford-Smith core has been broken up. There will be a lot of: “who stays and who goes” questions being asked and trade scenarios considered. That won’t help the win total and will keep the Hawks as a borderline playoff team.

6. Chicago Bulls: 49-33: If they get the top seed again this year, we can certify Tom Thibideau as a genius, at least during the regular season. The Bulls have a couple strikes against them. Derrick Rose is out until at least sometime in 2013. That will obviously hurt. What really hurts the team though is the gutting of the league’s best bench. Radmanovic, Belinelli and Mohammed are a pretty substantial downgrade from Brewer, Korver and Asik. The team is still good enough to win a lot of games though. Best case scenario for the Bulls seems to be Rose comes back in February as good as ever making them the lower-seed no one wants to face in the playoffs.

5. Boston Celtics: 50-32: I expect their 5-year stranglehold on the Atlantic to end this year. Garnett is 36, Pierce is 35 and Allen is gone. When superstars age, teams decline and that is what’s starting to happen in Boston. The Celtics have done some smart things to keep themselves competitive. Bringing in solid pros like Bass last year and Terry this year will help them stay in the upper echelon of the East. But the Heat knocked them down a peg last year and this is the year they fall behind the improved Sixers and Knicks.

4. Philadelphia 76ers: 52-30: The trade for Bynum and a couple of free agent signings have reorganized this team into what should be a much better functioning unit. This has been a team of slashers and defenders with little scoring punch. Bynum brings an inside game while Nick Young and Dorrell Wright add needed scoring punch from the outside. The presence of these three should make things easier for the likes of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner.  Iguodala will be missed, but his exit and the remaking of the roster should help Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday to improve their games. Especially Turner, whose skills mirrored those of Iguodala’s. The Sixers have added an improved perimeter game and the league’s 2^nd best center to what was already a decent young core. This team is young, talented and put together very smartly. They should finally make a splash this year.

3. Indiana Pacers: 53-29: The Pacers are the one team in the East that would qualify a one of the smarter guys in the room. They built a strong team through the draft and some smart trades. They hired a smart, young coach. They did it without a big lottery score or a superstar showing up at their doorstep. This is a team you should root for. They’re solid at every position and they have a promising young coach. Paul George is a potential star whose emergence should boost a solid roster even more. Granger, West and Hibbert are capable of playing at or at least close to an all-star level. What keeps the Pacers below the Heat and Knicks is there is no real superstar on the roster. That’s going to keep them at a win total in the mid-50s and a playoff ceiling of a conference champion runner-up.

2. New York Knicks: 56-26: The coaching change made a huge difference last year. The Knicks were 17-6 after Woodson took over in March, before losing to the eventual champ in the first round of the playoffs. I wasn’t impressed with Woodson in Atlanta and I have my doubts he’s the answer here. But it’s possible that he’s a good fit with these veterans. The main reason I like the Knicks to emerge as the top challenger to the Heat is the supporting cast they have around Carmelo Anthony. They have the conference’s top defensive presence in Chandler, a solid #2 in Stoudemire, good perimeter defenders in Shumpert and Brewer, a gunner in Novak and steady PG play. That’s pretty much everything a superstar could want. In other words, it’s all there for Carmelo Anthony, so it’s time for him to deliver. Carmelo is a very good player who really needs a “shut up and deliver” type of season after a couple seasons that involved too much drama. Even if things go as well as possible in NY, they’re still not on the level of the Heat and barring a Miami implosion they’ll come up short of a conference championship.

1.Miami Heat: 62-20: They’re the obvious top dog in the East and maybe the entire league. Now we’ll find out if they’re about to embark on a team of the teens dynasty run, or if this is the only title they win and they’re pushed back to mere contender status for a few years before splintering like the ’67 Sixers, ’83 Sixers or the ’08 Celtics. Or maybe it will be something in-between these two extremes. I’m skeptical of the narrative that LeBron James went through a big change and suddenly developed the same sort of psychotic championship drive possessed by Russell and Jordan. An all-time great like LeBron, playing with a supporting cast this good is going to win a championship or two regardless of his mentality. In 2012 the Rose injury, the Thunder’s inexperience and the lack of another great team paved an easy road for Heat. I believe these circumstances had more to do with LeBron’s first title than any sort of personal transformation he may have gone through. I mean they didn’t exactly charge through the playoffs taking no prisoners like the ’91 Bulls or the ’01 Lakers.  The Heat really could go either way in 2013. I like that there’s talk of using a smaller lineup and running more. I don’t like that the interior defense still looks a little weak for a champion. In the final analysis I have to pick them as a repeat champ. The biggest reason is I don’t see a team like Russell’s Celtics ready to take back the league from the ’67 Sixers or a Lakers-Celtics rivalry that became the story of the league following the great one year run of the ’83 Sixers. In other words, I don’t see anyone who can challenge the Heat. I have questions about the chemistry of the Lakers and I think the Harden trade kills off the Thunder. I picked the Nuggets to emerge from the West and I doubt they’ll be much competition for the Heat in the finals. Look for Miami to repeat.

The returning group is a mix of sophomores trying to build on decent freshman seasons and college veterans hoping for the chance to put it all together. Players are listed in order of how much I like them as prospects going into the season. Because the season hasn’t started yet and these players are all very young, the order will certainly change during the year and shouldn’t be taken too seriously at this point.

BJ Young, Arkansas: Easily the top returning SG. Young scored often and efficiently as a freshman. Players who flash this type of offensive proficiency as freshmen usually become first round draftees. Young will be no exception. He might even bust out as a college superstar in 2013. The downside is he’s skinny and his defense is marginal, so his high end is more likely that of a soft scorer than an all-around dominant SG. But he’s also young enough that weights and hard work could turn him into a more dominant all-around player.

CJ McCollum, Lehigh: Solid, multi-skilled guard. McCollum is mainly a scorer and defender, but can play some point. The problem is he’s always been an inefficient scorer and that has historically been a huge negative. His 3-pointer has been shaky since he hit .421 as a freshman. If he can get his percentages over .500 and .400 as a senior, and he’s close enough that this isn’t a crazy notion, he’s a potential lottery pick.

Drew Crawford, Northwestern: He stepped up his game nicely as a junior, surpassing .500 and .400 easily while hitting all the other important benchmarks, except scoring where he fell just short of 20.0, at 19.4. Crawford should get a chance to sparkle in 2013 with Shurna having left. The flipside of this situation is his efficiency could suffer when he becomes the Wildcat’s top option.

George Beamon, Manhattan: A solid small college SG and very much a player to watch. Beamon’s improvement from little-used freshman, to sophomore starter, to junior star has been pretty dramatic. It shows he’s a hard worker and that’s always a good thing for a prospect. The big negative is he’s turnover-prone.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia: Couldn’t he just go by Ken Pope as a player? It would make things so much easier for those of us who type his name into spreadsheets. Whatever he decides to go by, Mr. Pope is a decent prospect. He’s the next best returning sophomore SG after Young. He needs to improve his scoring efficiency a lot before I take him too seriously as a prospect though.

CJ Wilcox, Washington: He should get a chance to shine with Wroten and Ross having moved on to the pros. Wilcox will be 22 before the Pac-10 season starts, so he’s the age of most seniors and this is a pretty big negative for a “developing” player. But he should get a chance to play and star this year and that’s a big advantage for him.

Anthony Raffa, Coastal Carolina: He’s a little late in busting out, having just emerged last year as a 4^th-year junior. He has a transfer in his past, which is always a negative sign. He’s also just 6’1” and has shown little in the way of PG skills, so it’s very unlikely he’ll be a starter in the NBA. He put up some nice numbers last year in his first as a full-timer and that makes him a player to watch.

Lasan Kromah, George Washington: Kromah looked great as a freshman in 2010, showing dominant ability on both ends of the court. He missed his sophomore year because of injury. He then struggled on offense last year as a junior. Because he’s been off the map for a couple of years, due to injury and inefficiency, I have to consider him a long shot. Because he flashed dominant ability as a freshman, he remains a player to keep an eye on.

Victor Oladipo, Indiana: A good defender, he needs to score more efficiently from behind the arc and more frequently in general. As the 4^th-leading scorer on a team that returns everyone, it’s hard to see how his looks will increase. He does have some ability though and could break out should his offense improve dramatically.

PJ Hairston, North Carolina: He’s a recent phenom who is coming off a rough freshman year. With the bulk of the Tar Heel stats going to the pros, Hairston will get a chance to shine. He was terrible in his 482 freshman minutes and looks more like a SF than a SG. But he should get a chance and gets a mention here, because he was a top 15 prospect coming out of high school.

LaQuentin Miles, Central Arkansas: Big and dominant on defense. Miles needs to improve his offense. In two NCAA seasons he has hit only 1 3-pointer in 6 attempts. He’s knocked around some, playing at SE Missouri State in 2010 before transferring to Central Arkansas last year where he finally settled in. That means he’s the age of most seniors. He has a long way to go, but the potential is there if he can refine his offense.

Michael Snaer, Florida State: He’s been a player to watch since coming into college ball as a top 20 prospect in ‘09. He finally started to show something last year and will be in a make-or-break situation as a senior in 2013.

The evaluation of the centers plays out something like the PFs. There are benchmarks that should be met before I consider them good prospects. There are exceptions and I’ll get into those as they apply. The main thing to know is the 2PP should be over .600, the R40 over 10.0 and the B40 over 3.0. Those are minimum numbers. The better prospects should do better in every category. Scoring frequently is nice, but not as important as it is with the other position. Possessing a 3-point shot and good passing skills never hurt, but neither skill is essential for success. Here are the numbers:

Like the entire 2012 draft after the top pick, this group is deep with players who will make good 2^nd round picks, but offer little to like if drafted in the top 20. This group includes some typical center prospect stereotypes. Zeller’s the 4-year guy from a major program that every fan has heard about. Ezeli is the guy coming off a terrible senior year who might be a bargain. Leonard is the young guy with potential. Melo is the shot blocker. Kuzmic is the mysterious foreign player who may not show up until 2015. Etc. But they’re a bunch of players who will be 2^nd or 3^rd stringers in the NBA at best. Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond have already been analyzed in separate pieces. Davis is the top center available by a long shot. Drummond would be next based on his potential. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal.

Fab Melo, Syracuse: Melo is a good shot blocker. If there’s one skill I would choose for center prospects to do, blocking shots would be it. Such players have a much higher success rate than other one-skill prospects. For that reason I’m going to put him at the top of this group. Please don’t interpret this as a ringing endorsement of Melo’s NBA future either. He’s merely the most promising of a somewhat motley group of center prospects. Someone has to be at the top. I like shot blockers, so Fab is my guy.

There isn’t much else to like here though. He’s a substandard rebounder, his offense is practically non-existent and he’s a sophomore who’s as old as most seniors. He probably shouldn’t be drafted before #20. But if the question is “Which of these centers would I take first?” my answer would be Fab Melo. The reason is because he has the potential to become a pretty good NBA defender.

Ognjen Kuzmic, Bosnia and Herzegovina: Kuzmic averaged 14.1 R40 and 3.5 B40 playing in Spain. Those are numbers that make me take notice. His offense is weak, but in this group of centers his rebounding/defense places him near the top. I read a report that he signed a 4-year contract with a team in Spain. If this is true it means he won’t be of much immediate help. The flip side of this is he could be stashed overseas while salary cap and roster issues resolve themselves on a playoff contender.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois: Leonard seems likely to be one of the first of this group taken, so he deserves a closer look. Since I like to compare players with similar players from the past as a way of evaluating them, here’s a look at Leonard against past sophomore centers with a 2PP close to his .604. That’s his strongest stat, so that’s the one I used.

I listed the players in order of rebound rate, because there seems to be a dividing line between 10-11 R40 for players who were more successful. That line will become more defined next year after Cole Aldrich has his break out season. As for Leonard, he’s on the line. The three successful players below 10.5, Wennington, Polynice and Daugherty all posted their numbers in the pre-shot clock era, so I’m wary about holding up their careers as something Leonard might emulate. Leonard looks kind of ordinary next to this group. His numbers are similar to Przybilla only if you ignore blocks, which I can’t.

I have to consider Leonard a longshot to become more than a reserve. It looks like he has decent offensive potential, but the defense/rebounding skills are marginal and that has always been more important for centers. I could see using a late first rounder on him, because he’s younger than most and offers some upside. Personally I would wait for round 2.

Kyle O’Quinn, Norfolk State: O’Quinn is the only player here who passes every statistical benchmark, so I have to give him props for that. This is not an easy thing to do and it says O’Quinn is a prospect who deserves to be drafted. The fact that he’s posted such numbers for three years now and has flashed a decent 3-point shot adds to his value.

What brings him down a notch or two is that these numbers were posted at a small college. That isn’t as impressive had he done this on a bigger stage. That reservation aside, O’Quinn looks like a good get in round two. He has shown ability offensively, defensively and on the boards. He has enough potential that his ceiling is that of a decent rotation player.

Dusan Cantekin, Serbia: Cantekin hit 63% of his shots and posted an 11.8 R40 playing for Mega Vizura this past season. He’s also 7’4”. He didn’t look like much of a shot blocker and he’s 22, so the upside isn’t there. He doesn’t look like he’ll become a productive player on the level of Pekovic or Asik, but there’s enough here that he merits a second round look.

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt: Rough year for Ezeli. He was one of the top center prospects going in, but a suspension and injuries brought his numbers way down. This table shows how far he fell from last year:

Even though he was a better player in 2011, he was still just a marginal prospect because of his scary low A/TO. He’s even more marginal following a rough senior year. In his defense, Ezeli did improve after a late start, but never really got it together. He also still has that turnover problem that makes him seem too mistake-prone to have much of an impact at the next level. His defense should get him a look late in round 2.

Tyler Zeller, North Carolina: When a draft is thin at the top like 2012, marginal prospects are more likely to stand out in combines and individual workouts as teams desperately search for help. I think that’s probably the reason Zeller has moved close to the lottery in the latest mocks. Or perhaps teams are hoping that drafting Tyler somehow gives them an edge on landing his younger brother Cody next year. Whatever the reason, it certainly isn’t because he’s been a dominant college center. While he has shown some improvement, this is the first year he’s posted any number that made him look like even a decent prospect.

I’m always somewhat suspicious of players who finally step up as seniors. It’s better than not stepping up at all, but the best prospects are there from the start more often than not. In the case of Zeller, he only stepped up his rebounding. His offense remains inefficient and his shot blocking is still poor. Tyler Zeller has the numbers of a late 2^nd-rounder at best. Drafting him in round one, let alone the lottery would be a major mistake.

Bernard James, Florida State: James is a nice story. He served in Iraq, during which time he grew from 6’5” to 6’10”. After the army he headed to junior college, then Florida State as their starting center for the past couple of seasons. He’s 27, which makes him older than 8-year NBA veterans Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. That means even if he does make it, his usefulness as a player has a very tight window.

His stats were better as a junior when he averaged only 21 minutes per game. Increasing his minutes by 33% hurt both his efficiency and production and that has to be considered a pretty big negative. The positive side of his ledger is that he’s probably more mature than most of this group, what with the life experiences he’s had. He’s good enough to be an end of the bench big guy, so a late round 2 pick is about his place.

Garrett Stutz, Wichita State: He flashed some talent for 3 years, but put things together nicely as a senior and got himself on the map as a prospect. Stutz has a nice outside shot, which is always a plus for a big. He’s also a decent enough rebounder and has shown some good passing skills during his career. One big negative is he had trouble staying on the court. His senior number of 24.6 minutes per game was by far the best of his career, despite the fact that he didn’t foul at a high rate and generally posted strong per minute numbers. It bothers me that he spent so much time on the bench. Just looking at per minute numbers, he’s a better prospect than Zeller. But the fact that he posted these numbers in low minutes brings him down a few notches. He has shown enough to merit a look.

Eli Holman, Detroit: Holman has some big negatives, like being only 6’8”, being a 5^th-year senior and exceeding 3.0 B40 only in his sophomore season. He does have 3 seasons over 60% on 2-pointers, is a solid rebounder and has a 7’4” wingspan. He doesn’t look like much other than another big body to have around as a 3^rd string big. Rates a look as a UFA, but that’s all.

Henry Sims, Georgetown: Sims’ numbers are terrible for a prospect. I include him for a couple of reasons. The first is he’s a very good passer. That’s a nice skill for a center to have. The next is Georgetown big men under Thompson III may be experiencing a similar phenomenon to guards playing for Ben Howland at UCLA where the system suppresses their numbers. Both Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe have outplayed their college stats. Sims could do the same. Because Sims is nowhere near the player Hibbert and Monroe were in college, I’d test this theory via the UFA route.

First, let’s breakdown the facts that seem undisputed:

-The Magic seem to have stalled out as a title contender the last few years.  They are good but not great and have some bad contracts, notably Hedo Turkoglu (whom they re-acquired and gave up Martin Gortat to do it).  Turkoglu is not really tradeable unless you take back another bad or worse contract or he is packaged with a really good player (like Howard).  They plenty of other bad smaller deals too (Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson).

-Howard, as a pending free agent before the season, told Orlando he was not going to re-sign and he wanted to be traded, preferably to the New Jersey Nets.

-The Magic decided to hold onto Howard in the not entirely unreasonable hope that the Magic played very well this year he might stay with backup plan that they could also wait until the trade deadline and make a deal at that time if the situation was hopeless.

-Once again, the Magic looked pretty good (but not great) at the deadline.  Orlando is limbo since they are good enough to keep him but they are a longshot to win it all.  At the deadline, Howard first suggests he should not be traded because he might re-sign, even though all indications are that he will be gone at the end of the year.  Some thought Howard was angling to avoid a trade because the Nets were going nowhere this year and he could always sign with them at the end of the season.  In that case, the Nets would have Howard and get to keep the tons of assets needed to acquire Howard in a trade.  This would be a bit underhanded because Howard’s public statements put pressure on Orlando to keep him when, privately, he likely had no such intention, screwing the Magic out of an ability to get value for him.  After much uproar and some unspecified discussions with management, Howard somehow agrees to delay his free agency one more year and the Magic cling to the hope they get hot and knock off the Heat and Bulls and get to the Finals.  If not, the Magic go through the same uncertainty with Howard next year.

-Things seem hunky dory enough after the deadline but the Magic struggled to a 5-8 record and Howard missed some time with back spasms.  It is at this point, Van Gundy calls out Howard for continually trying to get him fired over the last year.

-This weekend, GM Otis Smith states that, as far as Smith knows, Howard never tried to get Smith to fire Van Gundy.

There are the publicly available facts.  Something does seem to be missing here.  Players try to get coaches fired all the time.  Magic Johnson helped Pat Riley get let go after several titles and the player and the players likely did the same to Van Gundy in Miami.  Hell, Jeff Van Gundy spent the entire 1998-99 season being undermined by a management that was openly courting Phil Jackson during the season.  So, Stan Van Gundy is obviously not naïve enough to be hurt by Howard’s angling for a new coach.  Something had to set off Van Gundy.  Either Van Gundy had a goal here or he was just tired and pissed off.  It’s hard to think that this was calculated because publicly humiliating Howard probably would not make the team play better or help Van Gundy’s long term situation in Orlando.  More likely, Van Gundy seems to have thought he was a goner and he wanted to go down making Howard feel some of the uncomfortable vibe that Van Gundy felt.

I guess, in the moment, what Van Gundy did felt really good.  Howard was left standing there with a cheapish grin and an unconvincing denial.  But this is a classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.  Van Gundy guaranteed he will be canned at the end of the year regardless and now and future employers may question whether he can deal with temperamental stars.  Backstabbing players are a common job hazard in the NBA and creating organizational chaos to put the players in their place is not what any management wants.  And it’s not like Van Gundy was in a bad place.  He had done a creditable job as coach and would leave the Magic as an above-average coach.  Howard might not like Van Gundy but his substantive beef was not underperforming but the inability of Orlando’s front office to bring in the right pieces around him.  None of what Van Gundy did will serve the goals of the Magic or SVG’s future.

As crazy as SVG seemed the other day, I was almost more astounded by Smith’s public denials of the statements.  Smith said that he had no knowledge of a request from Howard to fire Van Gundy.  This statement, while probably honest, leaves Smith in one of two places, and neither is good.  Either Howard went over Smith’s head and might’ve also requested that Smith be fired or Smith is lying.  Neither situation is a good one for Smith or Orlando.  Smith should have declined comment since nothing he could say would make Howard or Van Gundy look any better.

This begs the next question:  Should the Magic have fired Van Gundy immediately after his press conference?  This is a tough question.  The statements and resulting chaos certainly were justification to can Van Gundy immediately.  But firing Van Gundy might only put more blood on Howard’s hands.  If Van Gundy is quietly fired in the off season, this would be much less jarring to all involved.  Howard still seems like a bad guy on some level but not on the same level and the Magic don’t seem like they fired SVG only to keep Howard happy.

Despite this, I would’ve still fired Van Gundy immediately.  Once he made public comments that should’ve been left in-house, he lost Howard and compromised everything the Magic’s goal of keeping Howard.  Why do anything contrary to that goal now?  Sure, Howard will look like a jerk but people will forget all this if he re-signs.  The plan was to try to make a deep playoff run this summer to convince Howard to stay.  Howard now despises SVG, which makes the playoff run less likely.  Instead, they should’ve hired a splashy coach now and hoped to catch lightning in a bottle.  The obvious candidate is Larry Brown.  Brown is older now and still grates (much like SVG) but almost every Brown team starts hot.  It’s a desperate plan but the Magic’s plan has reeked of desperation all season anyway.

1997-98: 8 players

1998-99: 22 players (50 game schedule so eligibility was reduced to 20 games)

1999-00: 7 players

2000-01: 12 players

2001-02: 11 players

2002-03: 11 players

2003-04: 10 players

2004-05: 9 players

2005-06: 5 players

20006-07: 5 players

2007-08: 9 players

2008-09: 5 players

2009-10: 5 players

2010-11: 8 players

2011-12 17 players (through 50 games so far, threshold reduced to 20 games for eligibility)

Bingo.  We have seen more players really crap out this year then usuald.  In fact, the only worse season was 1998-99, the other lockout season, which was highlighted by particularly poor play.  This year, the NBA has looked relatively crisp considering the rushed start to the season but a mix of youngsters who need more time to develop (Kemba Walker, Ricky Rubio) and vets who just might be cooked (Artest, Corey Maggette, Kidd).  The age distribution of this year’s horrible shooting group is spread mostly in the early 20s or the over 31 set and there are no players between ages 26-30 who are in this group.  Past history indicates that the older guys will have problems arresting the declining.  Of the 30-odd players over age-32 who made this list of bad shooters since 1997-98, only a few were able subsequently improve.  John Starks, who was awful in the lockout season improved his shooting the next few years but still was not good and role players Lindsey Hunter and Jerome Kersey improved a bit, though their volume of shooting was so low that the improvement was not statistically very significant.  As such, it’s safe to assume that most of the older guys who shot poorly this season  are not likely to bounce back, unless something weird happened (Odom is the best candidate for some improvement, given that his problems appear as much emotional as due to decline).

A few more odds and ends of the bad shooting list:

-Kidd last season had the most win shares, by far, of all the crappy shooters at 6.4 since 1997-98, followed by Bruce Bowen 2000-01 at 4.2.

-The highest volume bad shooter is Starks in 1998-99, when he shot .370% from the field and .290% from three and averaged 14.6 shots per game.  Yes, Starks was the big reward that the Warriors got for trading Latrell Sprewell.

-Vernon Maxwell might be the least effective volume shooter in 1999-00 for Seattle.  He shot .345% from the field and still got off 10.4 shots per game.   He shot poorly and then brawled with Gary Payton in the weight room.

-Jason Collins was the most hesitant bad shooter (for the 2006-07 Nets).  Collins started 78 games and averaged almost 29 mpg and shot .364 but took only 1.9 shots per game.

-Five of the top ten most shots per game for bad shooters came in the last two years (Rubio, Walker, Maggette, Chauncey Billups, and Gilbert Arenas).

-Best young player on the list?  Steve Nash in 1998-99.  The Mavs handed him the keys that year and he did not play well, despite being 24.   We assume the lockout hurt him too.  He was very good as a backup the year before and bounced back in 1999-00.

Consider this a very rough draft of the ranking of the 2012 draft prospects. Because of this, I included more than the usual 60 prospects. As the season progresses and the real prospects separate themselves from the fast starters, I’ll refine the rankings to reflect as much. With that in mind, don’t take these too seriously. There remains a lot of basketball to be played and prospect analysis to be done.

Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky: Easy choice as the top guy right now. Unless he completely falls apart during the conference schedule and tournament, Anthony Davis will be the first pick in the 2012 draft.

Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State: Impressive that he dropped some weight over the summer. This is a good sign for his future in the league. It shows he’s willing to work to improve. So far the work has paid off in better, but still barely adequate, defensive numbers and improved FG pct. The hard part will be keeping it going into the conference schedule.

Quincy Miller, SF Baylor

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky: While neither have the eye-popping numbers of Davis, both have stepped into strong lineups as freshmen and put up solid numbers. Considering their status as top prospects coming in and the weakness at the top of this draft it’s enough to put them at 3-4 in this very early, very fluid ranking of the 2012 draft prospects.

The young Centers:

Andre Drummond, Connecticut

Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

Cody Zeller, Indiana

Meyers Leonard, Illinois

Patric Young, Florida: Centers deserve more attention than the other positions, because there are so few good ones out there. When one who looks like a decent prospect shows up, he deserves much more attention than a run-of-the-mill perimeter prospect. So far these guys look like OK, but not great prospects. All except Dieng are soft rebounders and that is a big problem for center prospects. Drummond, Young and Zeller are freshmen, Meyers and Dieng sophomores in their first season of getting extended action. I expect most, if not all of these players to slide as the rankings get a little more refined and the conference schedules send their already weak rebounding rates below double figures.

Top remaining PFs

Mason Plumlee, Duke

John Henson, North Carolina

Thomas Robinson, Kansas: Three good, solid inside players who should at the very least become valuable energy players. Players like this are always undervalued in the draft.

Top SFs who aren’t freshman:

Jae Crowder, Marquette

Mike Moser, UNLV

Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt: If there is a player who could come out of nowhere into the top 10, it’s Jae Crowder. His terrific defensive numbers are similar to last year, as are his percentages. The only thing changed is he’s shooting more often. So far he’s handled the increased touches well. Marquette seems to crank out a player like this every year recently. That being a senior wing who has waited his turn and excels when he gets the chance. Taylor is listed this high because he’s hitting his outside shot for the first time in his career. His defensive numbers have also improved. I’m leery about his ability to keep it up, but he’s a pretty good prospect if he does. Moser has finally gotten a chance to play and has been very good.

Top SGs

Will Barton, Memphis

Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut

Dion Waiters, Syracuse

Marcus Denmon, Missouri

Bradley Beal, Florida

Terrence Ross, Washington: Based on history, pedigree and statistics so far this year, these 6 are above the rest. There are things I like about each, but I also have reservations. Ross is a particularly shaky addition to this group. Denmon is different from the rest in that he’s older and more of a more of a sure thing. As a senior he doesn’t have the upside of the others though. I’m hesitant to rank any SG too high. Decent, usable SGs are so plentiful that burning a lottery pick on a player who isn’t another Wade, Kobe or Jordan just doesn’t make sense.

Shabazz Napier, PG Connecticut: So far he looks pretty good taking over for Kemba Walker as the PG. Good enough that I feel he deserves his own spot separate from the field at PG.  There are no other PGs who I would consider 1^st round material at this point.

Freshmen who are hard to get a read on just yet

James McAdoo, PF North Carolina

Rakim Christmas, PF Syracuse: Both have been OK in limited minutes. They haven’t been great, but they also haven’t been the disappointments the next group has been. Right now I feel this is the best place for these two until I see a little bit more.

Overhyped

Terrence Jones, Kentucky

Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina

Perry Jones, PF Baylor

Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky

Austin Rivers, G Duke: These 5 prospects get a ton of hype as prospects and have resided in the lottery or higher of most mocks around the nets. Based on their numbers none is a lottery pick, let alone a player who should be in the top 5 discussion. All are young and should improve, but in each case the numbers are just too weak to justify their lofty status in most mocks. Barnes probably has the most potential of the group, but like the rest he is far from looking like the star he’s being advertised as.

Put on the watch list

Tony Mitchell, PF North Texas

TaShawn Thomas, F Houston

Chase Tapley, SG San Diego State

Anthony Raffa, SG Coastal Carolina

Jared Cunningham, SG Oregon State

Victor Olidago, G-F Indiana

Soloman Hill, SF Arizona

Chris Udofia, G-F Denver

Arsalan Kazemi, F Rice

Robert Covington, SF Tennessee State

Matt Staff, PF Texas State: So far these players have all caught my eye and I thought they were worth a mention. I don’t rank them too high just yet, either because I’m not certain where they’ll fit despite some impressive numbers or because I have serious doubts they can keep up the pace they’re on. Some could shoot into the top 10 by March, others will fall off the list completely.

The Backup Centers

Festus Ezeli, C Vanderbilt

Fab Melo, Syracuse

Jeff Withey, Kansas

Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

Reggie Johnson, C Miami

Kyle O’Quinn, Norfolk State

Bernard James, Florida State

Joshua Smith, UCLA: Players who will be vying for a backup job. All are decent college players, but come up a little short as prospects. The fact that they’re centers makes them all more intriguing prospects than 2^nd-rounders at the other positions. It’s a supply and demand thing. The only thing separating this group from the 5 young centers I have in the lottery discussion is these guys have played themselves into the 2^nd round. The 5 youngsters haven’t had the opportunity to do that yet.  

Seniors and juniors who should be in 2^nd round discussion

Herb Pope, PF Seton Hall

Robbie Hummel, SF Purdue

John Shurma, SF Northwestern

Draymond Green, F Michigan State

Miles Plumlee, PF Duke

Arnett Moultrie, PF Mississippi State

Scoop Jardine, PG Syracuse

Kevin Jones, PF West Virginia

Ken Horton, G-F Central Connecticut State

Tony Mitchell, SF Alabama

Kim English, SG Missouri

Noah Hartsock, F BYU

Trevor Mbawke, PF Minnesota

Elias Harris, F Gonzaga

JaMychal Green, PF Alabama

Drew Gordon, PF New Mexico

Dee Bost, PG Mississippi State

Mike Scott, PF Virginia

Cameron Moore, PF UAB: This is a group of prospects who have been around and played well, but just not well enough. They lack a key skill, have had some injury problems or are a few years older than the normal prospect. Any one of these guys could catch fire during the conference season or have an impressive pre-draft and push themselves into the late-lottery. All would be solid 2^nd-round picks. The thing that jumps out is that there are a lot of PFs on the list. These guys, along with Davis and the others at the top make PF the strongest position in the 2012 draft.

Small College Scorers:

LaQuentin Miles, SG Central Arkansas

CJ McCullom, SG Lehigh

Damian Lillard, G Weber State

Nate Wolters, G South Dakota State

Alex Young, SG IUPUI

Javon McCrea, F Buffalo: These guys are lighting it up, at least on a per minute basis. Right now all of them look like they’re players who are too small to play their natural position in the NBA. But all are worth watching for now.

Good PGs who would be great prospects if they could score.

Aaron Craft, Ohio State

TJ McConnell, Duquense

DJ Cooper, Ohio

Tim Frazier, Penn State

Jesse Sanders, Liberty: This group has shown the necessary passing and defensive skills any PG prospect needs, but aren’t where they need to be as scorers. I like PGs like this better than say a Zach Rosen from Penn who is a decent scorer and passer, but lacks the defensive chops to move up a level. Scoring is an easier skill to develop than defense, so I feel all these players can be considered at the very least dark horses to be drafted and make some sort of impact. While I group them together, Craft and McConnell should be considered much better prospects than the other 3. Both are just sophs and neither has had the opportunity to shine as the top guy on his team.

Shooters with weak defensive numbers

Doug McDermott, F Creighton

John Jenkins, SG Vanderbilt

Doron Lamb, SG Kentucky: Sometime players like this find a place and makes an impact. Shooters are always in demand.

PGs with a 10+ A40:

Scott Machado, Iona

Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

Travon Woodall, Pitt: I don’t have a ton of confidence that any one of these three is more than a good college floor general, but 10+ assists per 40 minutes is very impressive. But I’m clearly going overboard on the subgroups at this point, making this a good time to wrap this very early, very fluid ranking of the 2012 NBA draft prospects.