Since the 2009 article, we’ve seen even more bankruptcy filings by former big earners Derrick Coleman (reportedly earned $91 million in the NBA) and Antoine Walker ($108 million), as well long-retired vets like Rick Mahorn. Interestingly, we have heard the low lights of certain athletes but the stories never detailed the descent and the multiple bad decisions that it takes to blow millions as they were being made.  Rather, we only heard the lament after the filing of the bankruptcy petition.  More recently, we now have an active NBAer who may provide us with insight into the problems before we get to bankrupcy in Eddy Curry, who will make over $11 million next year (and has been paid over $57 million for his career so far).  Just a few months ago, he was whacked with non-payment of a loan, as well as a failure to pay a settlement on civil claim in Illinois.

We obviously can’t know exactly is going on behind the scenes but Curry has left a trail of litigation that gives a nice little window into his activities.  So let’s take a look at what we’ve got.  Remember, we don’t know what’s true or not but that the allegations are taken from court pleadings that we found online.  Here’s what we have with Curry:

-July 2008: Curry is sued by Jacob & Company Watches, Inc., a well-known jeweler for athletes and other celebrities.  According to the complaint, Curry purchased multiple pieces of jewelry for a total cost of $952,000 in 2005 but failed to pay off the full amounts, leaving a balance of $452.686.88.  The matter was settled in March 2009.  It is not clear what the settlement terms were but annexed to the motion papers was an e-mail exchange between the attorneys for the jeweler and Curry’s attorney that implied that Curry would pay the full amounts by November 2008.  Apparently, the money was not paid at that time and the jeweler moved for a default judgment against Curry in January 2009.  Presumably, this move finally convinced Curry to pay.

-In November 2008, another action was filed against Curry by a company called PSC Cur, LLC.  It is not clear what PSC does since the only document filed with the court was a judgment by a confession signed by Curry, attesting that he owed PSC $1.45 million dollars.

-In January 2009, Curry is sued by his chauffeur David Kuchinsky for $98,000 in back wages and expenses.  The complaint also had some salacious allegations that Curry sexually harassed and physically menaced.  In January 2010, the case was dismissed because there was apparently a mandatory arbitration agreement in the employment contract.  There is no record as to whether the arbitration has been resolved.

-A morass of litigation has arisen from a loan Curry was  given by a company called Allstar Capital, Inc. in February 2008.  While in Nevada, Curry was loaned $570,000 by Allstar.  The loan was to be repaid in slightly less than six months.  The interest rate was an incredibly high 84.36% per year and would increase to 89.36% if Curry failed to re-pay.  Nevada is one of the few states without usury laws (by comparison, Curry’s two main places of residence, Illinois and New York have usury limits of 9% and 16% respectively).  Allstar quickly obtained a judgment for $1.2 million in Nevada (plus continuing interest at the 89% number).

Since that time, Curry has sued Allstar and its principal Daniel Gordon, alleging that the contract should be voided because Gordon had lent the $570,000 by stealing the funds improperly from his wife.  The suit has been dismissed against Allstar but is still pending against Gordon, who also has a colorful past and pled guilty to criminal charges involving some illicit stock trading relating to the famous Enron meltdown in the early 2000s.

In the meantime, Allstar has executed on the judgment against Curry in New York.   Allstar sought to garnish wages from Curry to re-pay the money owed by at the rate of $75,000 per month.  Curry opposed the garnishment, claiming that such a large garnishment would create an undue hardship.  The dispute went into some details as to how NBA players are paid and where exactly their money goes.  Curry testified that of the $10.5 million he was to make for the 2009-10 season, half the salary is made in bi-monthly payments of $358,746.45 over the six-month regular season and the other half is paid in lump sum on July 1, 2010.

Curry further stated that much of his salary is pledged, garnished, or subject to other expenses.  Each pay check is garnished (through both judgments and taxes) in the amount of $207,007.06, netting Curry just under $275,000.  Curry argued that he had a load of expenses each month that made paying out $75,000 a month a burden.  Curry listed the following expenses:

-personal/household expenses: $30,000

-rent: $17,000

-payments to parents, sister, and father-in-law: $16,900

-cars: $2,900 for two range rovers plus $2,500 in insurance

-chef: $6,000

-mortgage on Illinois home: $40,000 (which is in foreclosure)

-childrens’ school tuition: $6,290

The items totaled $122,469.62 in obligations, leaving Curry with disposable income of about $150,000 per month.  Curry also apparently owes a good deal of cash to other creditors.  He stated that he owed $8.2 million to various creditors, notably $680,000 on his Illinois house’s mortgage (which has a negative equity value of $1,000,000 and is in foreclosure), $180,000 in attorneys fees, and $350,000 to fellow Chicagoan NBAer Juwan Howard.

-More recently, a Chicago judge issued a warrant for Curry’s arrest for failing to pay a civil settlement in a case where Curry had illegally had sexual relations with the plaintiff when she was 14 and he was 18. The case was settled for $660,000 but Curry been in arrears in the settlement payments to the tune of nearly $200,000.   His attorney in that case is the firm that he owes about $180,000 to and they had attempted to withdraw from the case for that reason earlier, though the court denied that application.  The article also mentions that Curry has filed a suit in Chicago against his former business manager seeking nearly $4 million.

If Curry represents the average NBA player in financial troubles, we can see that his problems stem from bad investments, irresponsible handling of affairs, overspending, and being taken advantage by vultures.  At this point, Curry should be able to put out most of these fires with the $11 million coming his way in 2010-11, assuming he gets his house in order.  But based upon the past record that seems unlikely.

Is there a way to protect some of these athletes from themselves?  It would’ve been pretty simple for Curry to have taken $100,000 per year in salary and put it in some annuity not to be touched for 20 years, thereby guaranteeing him a ton of cash for his golden years.  But the NBA can’t really legislate financial and personal common sense.  Hopefully, some players will look at all the players who have blown potential generations of fortunes and recognize that newfound wealth requires a professional to manage a complex financial estate.  This isn’t a problem unique to athletes.  Big money means big risk and all sorts of legal and tax issues that most people wouldn’t fully understand on their own either.

-Where is LeBron going?

I have no idea and have absolutely no inside knowledge on the subject.  We do know certain facts that at least allow for a theoretical handicapping.  Recognizing that we are making guesses based on rumor/innuendo we’ll still try to distill an educated guess based upon the facts as we see them.  In order to find the facts, let’s do a team-by-team breakdown.  Here’s how the contenders look:

(1) Cleveland: Cleveland is still the hometown favorite and the mention of them trying to get Chris Bosh recently seems to indicate that the Cavs were working with James.  On the other hand, the Bosh Affair also seems to indicate that LeBron was making sure that whichever team he went to brought in another star-type player.  The fact that the Cavs couldn’t land Bosh doesn’t bode well for them if that is the case.  Still, Cleveland seems to be the leader as the hometown squad and have already acommodated James by upending the coach and GM to suit him.

(2)  Chicago: The Bulls have the deepest incumbent supporting cast and have now have reportedly signed Carlos Boozer, which satisfies James’ need for a second big signing.  Combine Boozer with Derrick Rose and the rest of the players already in Chicago with James and you have a very good team.  The only problem from Chicago’s end is the fact that they have been relatively quiet in the process.  This doesn’t mean the Bulls are not a player but you would expect some buzz, even if it is manufactured, from a real contender for James’ services.

(3)  New York: All indications were that the Knicks did not impress James and are not real players in this competition.  New York did sign Amare Stoudemire, which may or may not, be an asset in getting James.  As much as James may be interested in playing in New York, playing the next eight years with Amare and not much else does not seem enticing to me.

But what about the New York mystique?  Incidentally, author Buzz Bissinger wrote an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times a few weeks ago advocating that James should leave Cleveland for New York based upon this very fact.  Bissinger made the case as follows: “LeBron James’s relationship to his community is profound: he built a palatial house in the Akron area and just finished his seventh season with the Cavaliers. But I believe those roots have become golden shackles. He is too loved, and therefore too coddled and too easily forgiven….James basically has not been challenged as an athlete since he was a sophomore in high school and had a coach named Keith Dambro…Yes, he is a god in Akron and Cleveland. But sometimes worship, as genuine as it is, can create a false sense of invincibility. The result: all he and his teammates can do now is watch the Celtics advance in the playoffs.  LeBron, take the chance. Just go and never look back. In the greatest city in the world, you will never regret it. It is time to leave home.”

I understand Bissinger’s argument but the fundamental unstated assumption of Bissinger’s article, that the Cavs have lost because James doesn’t have the killer instinct, is just not correct.  The Cavs have lost to two very good teams in the playoffs, not because of LeBron but because of the failure of his cast.  Even if you assumed, for argument sake, that James needed more killer instinct, why would the chance at being booed more really fix that?

Bissinger is correct that New York offers some potential possibilities that none of the other teams do.  If James wins for the Knicks, he becomes an instant legend.  But New York would be a high risk/high reward proposition for LeBron.  If James fails to win, no matter how well he plays, he would be hit with some stigma, fair or unfair, that he failed in his goals.  This raises another logical flaw with LeBron-to-New York argument, LeBron is absolutely already a global icon and does not need New York to raise his exposure.  If his legacy is a concern (and it probably is to him), he must win a title (if not a few titles) no matter where he plays to reach the heights of Jordan or Russell in the annals.  That being the case, James needs to pick the very best place that gives him a chance to win, whether it be in New York or Memphis.  Right now, New York offers Amare and a bucket of crap in terms of players.  In theory, the Knicks can turn over the roster and build around LeBron and Amare but James would then be wasting several prime years to get there. So, New York should be a pretender here if James’ worries are what they logically should be.

(4)  Miami: They apparently already have Dwyane Wade and Bosh already, which should be a nice start to get James.  The problems here are that (1) James is reportedly not looking to share the spotlight with a pretty huge star like Wade and (2) that the Heat have virtually no other players on the roster besides Wade and Bosh and would need to build the roster up with wholesale changes (with a core of Bosh and Wade that shouldn’t be too hard).  As for the potential alpha male issues between having Wade and James, this shouldn’t be a big deal.  Admittedly, it is a bit odd to note that LeBron needs to win but must also do so in a manner that is emotionally comfortable to him.  Logically, a star should want the best players possible on his team but it is clear that some players have had issues with this over the years (Kobe and Shaq are the best remembered example but you can see such tensions with tons of teams all the way back to Wilt and Baylor with the Lakers).

(5)  New Jersey/Dallas/Los Angeles Clippers: New Jersey was a contender if they could’ve landed Chris Paul and a forward.  Now all the forwards but Lee are off the market and the Paul deal is reportedly dead.  So, James is out of play for Jersey.  Dallas was a dark horse for LeBron but we haven’t heard any indication that he is considering them now.  Finally, the Clipps had the cap space but all indications were that their attempts to woo James didn’t take.

Having said all that, where do you think is LeBron going again?

It seems the most logical place is back to Cleveland with an opt-out clause if things devolve in the next few years.  The Cavs are still pretty good with LeBron and the opt-out would give LeBron one more shot to find the right team if things don’t work out.

Is LeBron a narcissist?

A search of the terms LeBron and narcissist on Google yield a mere 17,200 results.  He seems to be enjoying the recruiting process more than you’d think.  Both he, Wade, and Bosh have been ubiquitous on television, Twitter, and any other medium you can think of.  (Bosh and Wade were reportedly shooting a documentary on the free agency process).  Combine that with James now seeking to announce his decision on ESPN at the culmination of a one-hour special definitely indicate a degree of self-absorption.  Clearly, James and the group have a healthy sense of worth and want to be the center of attention.  But is there anything wrong with this?  Let’s check the medical books…Narcissistic personality disorder is defined by the Mayo Clinic as “a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance and a deep need for admiration. Those with narcissistic personality disorder believe that they’re superior to others and have little regard for other people’s feelings. But behind this mask of ultra-confidence lies a fragile self-esteem, vulnerable to the slightest criticism.”

Of course, self-worth and confidence are good traits to have, particularly someone who is under the intense scrutiny that NBA stars are.  A study in Psychology Today in 2005 indicated that a mild narcissist can “float through life feeling pretty good about himself.”  Still, the narcissists expect special treatment, “are easily offended, and readily harbor grudges.”  This description doesn’t just match James but just about every athletic superstar in the American professional sports .  So, LeBron is a narcissist.  This isn’t necessarily a problem in moderation but a product of the world LeBron lives in and almost a foregone conclusion for a sports star.

Point Guard 

1. John Wall
2. Jeremy Lin
3. Greivis Vasquez
4. Dee Bost
5. Ben Uzoh
6. Armon Johnson
7. Mikhail Torrance

This is John Wall and not much else. I like Lin quite a bit as a sleeper pick in round 2 and Vasquez as a good career journeyman, but other than that this group of PGs just isn’t up to par with recent years. 

Combo Guard 

1. Eric Bledsoe
2. Avery Bradley
3. Jon Scheyer
4. Willie Warren
5. Devan Downey
6. Andy Rautins
7. Matt Bouldin
8. Nate Rohnert
9. Rodney Green 

Not a wildly impressive group either. Bledsoe and Bradley still have some intrigue as highly-touted freshmen. Scheyer is an intangibles guy and Warren could become a pretty good scorer. But there’s no player here who should be considered before pick #20.

Shooting Guards 

1. James Anderson
2. Xavier Henry
3. Jordan Crawford
4. Elliott Williams
5. Dominique Jones
6. Manny Harris
7. Aubrey Coleman
8. Scottie Reynolds
9. Terrico White
10. Sylven Landesberg 

Not a bad group. I feel Anderson and Crawford are both undervalued going in and any of the top 5 are worthy of a post-lottery first-rounder. 

SG/SFs 

1. Evan Turner
2. Paul George
3. Landry Fields
4. Tyler Smith
5. Lance Stephenson
6. Marqus Blakely 

Players who fit somewhere between SG and SF. They could end up playing either position, so I just separated them. Turner is the best player in the draft. Paul George is a player worthy of a top 10 pick and Landry Fields is a solid late first-rounder. This is a pretty strong group. 

Small Forwards 

1. Wesley Johnson
2. Gordon Hayward
3. Tyren Johnson
4. Darington Hobson
5. Lazar Hayward
6. Quincy Pondexter
7. Devin Ebanks
8. Stanley Robinson 

My advice to any team thinking of taking Wes Johnson at 3 or 4 is: Draft the best big guy and go for another Johnson, Tyren, in round 2. There is some good quality here, but as a group this bunch is a tad overrated. 

Combo Forwards 

1. Damion James
2. Al-Farouq Aminu
3. Luke Babbitt
4. Trevor Booker
5. Patrick Patterson
6. Craig Brackins
7. Charles Garcia

This is a strong group for this position. There’s a little bit of everything. James is a solid player. After him we have the project, Aminu; the gunner, Babbitt; the defender, Booker; and the team player, Patterson. 

Power Forwards 

1. Derrick Favors
2. Ed Davis
3. Jarvis Vanardo
4. Luke Harangody
5. Derrick Caracter
6. Dwayne Collins
7. Gani Lawal

A decent group, but after Favors most of the buzz in the frontcourt has been around combo forwards and centers, rightfully so. 

PF/Centers 

1. Greg Monroe
2. Larry Sanders
3. Ekpe Udoh
4. Tiny Gallon

I decided to separate these guys from the centers or PFs. They’ll play both positions at the next level and I’m doing a lot of separating into groups and sub-groups this year, so this makes sense. I don’t see a dominating player in these four. Monroe could become one of those star role players, but that’s the high end for any of these four. 

Centers 

1. DeMarcus Cousins
2. Hassan Whiteside
3. Cole Aldrich
4. Daniel Orton
5. Dexter Pittman
6. Omar Samhan
7. Solomon Alabi
8. Hamady N’Daiye
9. Brian Zoubek
10. Jeff Foote

This is a class that has the potential to be legendary. It also has the potential to be very disappointing. If nothing else that should make this a fun group to watch over the years. Teams that pass on Cousins, Whiteside and possibly Orton eventually could come to rue this draft day. The centers seem to be the top foreign position also. As to where that group would rank here, I’d place them in the 5-10 range without putting too much analysis into it.

-Good young player steadily improving

-Player with no previous expectations or who was considered a good player but becomes good out of nowhere

-Established player in his prime going from good to very good (i.e. peak season)

-Player who improves merely by getting more minutes

-A player who was considered a prospect craps out and then later becomes good 

These are rough approximations of standards for the award and they can overlap but they fairly encompass most scenarios.  I thought we could look back at the award’s history and see what value, if any, we can distill from this review.  The award itself came into to existence in 1985-86.  Previously, the NBA had created a “Comeback Player of the Year” but had abandoned the idea after a few years, allegedly because the NBA was tired of giving the award to players who had comeback from substance abuse.  Before we get to the Most Improved Award, let’s review the old Comeback Award to see if the award did yield potentially embarrassing results:

-1980-81, Bernard King:  King did get the award after a tough year in Utah, reportedly due to substance abuse.  King did not suffer any public relapses aftewards and was hardly an embarrassing winner.  Had they kept the award, he probably would’ve gotten it again in 1987-88 when he came back from a devastating knee injury.

-1981-82, Gus Williams:  Williams “came back” from sitting out the entire 1980-81 season in a contract dispute.  No drugs hear but not exactly an model award winner.

-1982-83, Paul Westphal:  Westphal struggled with injuries his first year in New York.  In 1982-83, Westphal played in 80 games but was really just decent (14.5 ppg, 8.0 apg).  Still, after two injury plagued year, a decent season on a decent team was enough to get him the award.  His career ended after one more season.

-1983-84, Adrian Dantley:  AD missed most of the previous season with torn ligaments in his wrist.  After his return, Dantley would continue to put up huge number for Utah before he was chased out of town after a contract dispute with management.

-1984-85, Micheal Ray Richardson:  This was the award everyone refers to when discussing potential embarrassment factor.  Richardson was famous for his many drug relapses and was permanently banned only a few months later, when he went AWOL during the team’s Christmas party in 1985-86.

-1985-86, Marques Johnson:  Johnson also made a comeback from struggling with substance abuse.  Unlike King or Richardson, Johnson didn’t really miss any major time with his problem but his game was off in 1984-85.  The return in 1985-86, however, was the end for Johnson,  He suffered several major injuries in 1986-87 and his career was over. 

The award did seem a little silly but it wasn’t really littered with drug rehab candidates.  Rather, it seems that the specter of Richardson’s problems set a long shadow on the NBA and the elimination of this award was the casualty.  Comeback and Most Improved actually overlapped for one season.  Starting in 1985-86, the Most Improved Award came into play, not as a replacement for Comeback Award, but as a totally separate award.  But when Comeback was dumped, the emergence of Most Improved made it look like a replacement.    

Turning back to Most Improved, I thought we could go through each winner and see how much he actually did improve on his PER of the previous season and where the player ended up the following season (we’ll call it “three-year PER”).  This would show how accurate the perception of the award is (namely that the winners usually aren’t very good).  Again, PER is not the only way to evaluate a player but it works very well in the context of evaluating a player against himself from year-to-year: 

1985-86, Alvin Robertson, PER 19.5, three-year PER: 15.3, 19.5, 18.5

1986-87, Dale Ellis, PER 19.0, three-year PER: 13.5, 19.0, 19.3

1987-88, Kevin Duckworth, PER 14.9, three-year PER: 9.1, 14.9, 13.9

1988-89, Kevin Johnson, PER 20.5, three-year PER, 15.5, 20.5, 22.8

1989-90, Rony Seikaly, PER 15.9, three-year PER, 10.8, 15.9, 15.2

1990-91, Scott Skiles, PER 17.8, three-year PER, 13.2, 17.8, 14.4

1991-92, Pervis Ellison, PER 19.9, three-year PER, 15.9, 19.9, 18.5

1992-93, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, PER 15.6, three-year PER, 12.6, 15.6, 16.7

1993-94, Don MacLean, PER 17.8, three-year PER, 14.0, 17.8, 11.7

1994-95, Dana Barros, PER 20.9, three-year PER, 16.0, 20.9, 15.6

1995-96, Gheorghe Muresan, PER 21.0, three-year PER, 17.4, 21.0, 16.7

1996-97, Isaac Austin, PER 14.2, three-year PER, N/A, 14.2, 16.3

1997-98, Alan Henderson, PER 18.4, three-year PER, 15.0, 18.4, 16.0

1998-99, Darrell Armstrong, PER 22.2, three-year PER, 15.7, 22.2, 19.5

1999-00, Jalen Rose, PER 16.7, three-year PER, 14.4, 16.7, 17.8

2000-01, Tracy McGrady, PER 24.9, three-year PER, 20.0, 24.9, 25.1

2001-02, Jermaine O’Neal, PER 18.1, three-year PER, 17.5, 18.1, 21.4

2002-03, Gilbert Arenas, PER 18.6, three-year PER, 17.0, 18.6, 16.0

2003-04, Zach Randolph, PER 19.6, three-year PER, 19.9, 19.6, 18.6

2004-05, Bobby Simmons, PER 16.1, three-year PER, 12.6, 16.1, 13.8

2005-06, Boris Diaw, PER 17.3, three-year PER, 10.0, 17.3, 13.0

2006-07, Monta Ellis, PER 15.0, three-year PER, 11.1, 15.0, 19.0

2007-08, Hedo Turkoglu, PER 17.8, three-year PER 14.2, 17.8, 14.8

2008-09, Danny Granger, PER 21.9, three-year PER 16.7, 21.8, 19.8 

The standard for the award seems to be constantly changing.  In the 1980s, we saw good young player notch the award based upon the natural improvement cycle.  In the 1990s, we saw more random selections: players hitting peak seasons (Barros, Skiles) or fringe guys establishing themselves briefly as useful players (MacLean, Austin, Muresan) but very few young lottery picks, except guys who really struggled as young players (Ellison and Abdul-Rauf).  It seems that in the 2000s there has been more of a focus on good young players in the natural improvement cycle like T-Mac and O’Neal. 

Some other notes on the selections: 

-Randolph, O’Neal, and Arenas really weren’t great choices, as their rate stats didn’t change much in the previous season and really their only improvement was in playing time and not ability.

-Turkoglu was also and odd choice, since he had plenty of previous seasons similar to his quasi-peak of 2007-08. 

-There is also something less than satisfying to me about awarding expected stars for natural development.  McGrady was a lottery pick and a good player who improved partly because of signing with Orlando and being given carte blanche to shoot.  No one was too surprised when he turned into an All-Star.  The same logic applies for Robertson, KJ, Seikaly, Rose, and several others.

-The true spirit of the award rests in young players with no expectations, who end up being valuable over the long term.  In that sense, Armstrong is probably the ideal award winner, since he was a real fringer for years before making his mark.  Unlike other fringers listed above, he ended up staying a good player for another decade in the NBA. 

So what have we learned?  Just that this award is amorphous in standards and rarely provides a truly satisfying winner.  The NBA won’t get rid of it because it’s another subject to get people talking.  In the end, however, I don’t see much utility in it.

What interests me about Ellis, however, is not the debate of his worth but how he is absorbing minutes like a sponge.  Ellis is currently second in the NBA in mpg behind Gerald Wallace, who is playing 42 mpg.  What should we be expecting from our NBA players?  Well, 42 mpg is a lot for an NBA players.  There are currently 100 players who have logged a season of 42 mpg or more (minimum of 60 games played).  Going back to the beginning, logging tons of minutes was a 1960s concept. Here is a distribution of the 42 MPG club by decade:

1950s: 9

1960s: 44

1970s: 28

1980s: 2

1990s: 5

2000s: 12 

Some notes on the club: 

-As can been seen, the 1960s and 1970s comprise 72% of the club.

-Looking even more closely, Wilt Chamberlain has the top seven minutes per game season (led by his incredible 48.5 mpg in 1961-62) and makes up 13% of the bunch on his own.  Bill Russell and Oscar Robertson each had 9 on their own too, giving these three 31% of the entire list.  (John Havlicek, who played a ton of minutes in his long career, only appears three times).

-Tiny Archibald has the highest MPG, non-Wilt Division at 46.0 mpg during his history 1972-73 season.  After having 43.1 mpg in 1971-72 and 46.0 mpg in 1972-73 at the ripe age of 24, Archibald missed most of the 1973-74 season with injury.

-It’s not clear what led to the decline in MPG by for the 1980s and 1990s but we can only presume that coaches finally realized that they were dealing with finite resources. 

-The 2000s have seen somewhat of a resurgence of the workhorse.  This is not a league wide trend.  The real explanation is Allen Iverson.  AI had a remarkable six of the 12 players involved in the 42 MPG club.  In fact, Iverson missed qualifying in 2003-04 only because he played in 48 games, though he still averaged 42.5 mpg and just missed 42 mpg in 2007-08 (41.8 mpg).  Iverson’s ability to absorb minutes is unprecedented for post-1970s player of any kind, let alone a 5′11, 165-pound player.   He may be paying the price now but AI might be the most unique player we’ve seen.

-In the post-1970s time, the most MPG is AI’s 43.7  in 2001-02.  Ironically, Iverson barely made our cut, playing exactly the 60 game minimum we required.  His minutes likely would’ve dropped a little if he played an extra 10 or 20 games.  The most minutes in a full season in this time come from Latrell Sprewell for the 1993-94 Warriors, 43.1 mpg in 82 games (Anthony Mason also had 43.1 mpg for the Hornets in 1996-97 in 73 games).

-Turning to raw total minutes in a season, Don Nelson rears his head.  Of the top five minutes played since 1979-80, four played for Nellie: 

1.  Latrell Sprewell (1993-94): 3,533 minutes (Nellie player)

2.  Allen Iverson (2002-03): 3,485 minutes

3.  Michael Finley (1999-00): 3,464 minutes (Nellie player)

4.  Anthony Mason (1995-96): 3,457 minutes (Nellie player for most of the season–Nellie was fired about halfway through the season)

5.  Michael Finley (2000-01): 3,443 minutes (Nellie player) 

Nellie also has nine of the top 50 in this category (mostly Finley, Sprewell, and Tim Hardaway).  So, riding Ellis is completely consistent with Nellie’s previous modus operandi of riding his two guard hard.  The hard minutes didn’t appear to kill Finley or Sprewell, though T-Hard had some serious injuries. 

-None of the big men of this era played as much as Wilt/Russell, even relative to their peers.  Shaq, Olajuwon, Robinson, Duncan, Ewing, and Moses appear in the top 51 in minutes played (3,200 minutes or more in a season) no more than twice. 

-Of this top 51 in the 3,200 minute club, Gary Payton and KG lead the way with five appearances.  Sprewell, Antoine Walker, and Joe Johnson are tied at four.

-If Gerald Wallace and Ellis keep their pace this season, they will be 16th and 27th overall in mpg in a season since 1979-80.

-This has been true for a while now but LeBron James is clearly the best player in the NBA (and probably the world).  Despite some early shooting issues, he controlled this game on all levels and then killed the Magic in the last few minutes off the dribble or the pass.  LBJ’s numbers are basically in line with 2007-08 and 2008-09 so far.  The one difference is that James has steadily been raising his rate of three point shots and accuracy over the last three years too.  James’ current effective FG% is .553%, which would be a career best.  He is also shooting threes at a career best rate (.362%).  The scary thing is that James could plausibly raise his three-point percentage. 

-Despite the fact that the final score indicated that Orlando was manhandled, they were pretty competitive.  Most impressive here was the Magic’s ability to comeback from way down to take a lead briefly with about six minutes to go.  Orlando got that lead by going to Dwight Howard continuously and letting him score or kick it out to Rashard Lewis from three (a common theme from last year’s playoffs).  Had Vince Carter or Jameer Nelson even had decent games, Orlando could’ve won.  Indeed, there is no reason to think that Cleveland would blow out Orlando in a seven-game series this spring.

-Shaquille O’Neal was very effective in making Howard work in the fourth quarter.  Shaq could score on Howard, when Shaq got his body moving (in the post, Shaq looked a little uglier and awkward).  Also, Howard could not push him around on defense.  The Magic, for some reason, did not use Shaq’s presence to run a pick-and-rolls with Howard and Nelson to force O’Neal play defense away from the basket.  Shaq is very slow now and Orlando could’ve taken more advantage of that fact.  Shaq’s problems are quite clear on a per-minute basis, where his foul numbers are the highest of his career (4.8 fouls per 36 minutes).  From Cleveland’s viewpoint, this isn’t a big deal.  Shaq is no longer a star but just part of an effective three-headed center with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson.

-Speaking of center match ups, it’s hard not to notice that Orlando kind of has the micro version of Cleveland’s centers.  Howard plays like Shaq but is a good deal smaller and Marcin Gortat, the bald European, plays and looks like a smaller version of Ilgauskas.  Not sure what that means but it is amusing to me.

-Does a trade make sense for either of these teams?  Cleveland could use another scoring forward but I would not trade Hickson to get this done, for the names that have been mentioned (Antawn Jamison or Amare Stoudemire).  Hickson is very active on offense and defense and provides the energy for the small ball line up that the Shaq/Z plodding group cannot.  Orlando could use scoring even more than Cleveland.  Their offense is 12th in efficiency.  This is only slightly worse than last year but another option here would help, particularly when the starting guards struggled.  They can still win with the current lineup but using some of the excess big men (Gortat or Brandon Bass) for another scorer (Caron Butler?) could make a big difference.

-We choose players based upon their accomplishment solely with one franchise. For example, Rod Strickland is possibly the best non-All-Star ever but he had several cameos for franchises where he wasn’t great, which don’t count in my book.

-If the player made an All-Star ever even if with another team, he is exempted from this list. This may seem a bit inconsistent with the first guideline but the fact that a player ever made the All-Star game changes things to me. A future (or past) All-Star appearance takes the sting off–that same sting which we’re trying to capture here.

-If the choices are close, we will weight our pick more towards players with longer tenures with the franchise. This seems more appropriate for what we are looking for.

Atlanta Hawks: The best Hawk we can find is Josh Smith, who has been very good for over five years. With the Hawks recent success, Smith is very likely to finally make the game. This leaves Jason Terry, who played well but toiled for some really bad Hawks teams at the real nadir of their rebuilding stage. Terry still has a chance to make an All-Star team but it is unlikely given the number of great guards out West.

Boston Celtics: Most of the great Celtics (or even the good Celtics) make the All-Star team. That’s just how it works with players on good teams. For Boston, that leaves two contenders, Hall of Famer Frank Ramsey and Cedric Maxwell. Ramsey, the original sixth man, for the Celts in the 1950s and early 1960s was instant offense off the bench in the old days and shot very well for the old brick laying days (he shot .419% in 1957-58, yet was fourth in effective field goal percentage in the NBA). Maxwell was remembered as a good role player for the 1980s Celtics but he was a well above-average player before the even better Kevin McHale co-opted his position. Maxwell’s best season was his second year (1978-79), when he put up 19 ppg and 9.9 rpg and led the NBA in field goal percentage. It’s hard to choose between Ramsey and Maxwell but we’ll go with Maxwell, since he was really a top player for about two years and still didn’t sniff the All-Star game.

Charlotte Bobcats: No All-Stars for this franchise quite yet and the only candidates are Emeka Okafor and Gerald Wallace. Okafor seems like the choice here because he was the better player (up until this year) and Wallace has a nice shot of making it this year anyway.

Chicago Bulls: Not much in the way of choice here. Derrick Rose is the best candidate but he is likely to make the game at some point. For the less likely to ever be All-Star players, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich were/are both pretty good but not great. From olden days, Orlando Woolridge was a very proficient scorer for the Bulls in the mid-1980s, though he fit very poorly with MJ. None of these three have even been close to All-Star caliber as Bulls but I’ll go with Hinrich, who can’t score like either of the other two but had a nice year offensively in 2006-07 and defended realy well, something neither Gordon or Woolridge can/did do.

Cleveland Cavaliers: A couple of guys from the late 1980s have a shot here. Ron Harper was very good but was only a Cav for three years and I’ve always liked his old teammate Hot Rod Williams and thought he was an underrated player. In looking over the Cavs’ historical roster here, I was reminded that Andre Miller started out in Cleveland and has still never made an All-Star team. Miller was a great player (better than Harper) for the Cavs and has been a very good player ever since. His lack of an All-Star game appearance puts him squarely in the conversation with the legendary non-All-Stars like Derek Harper, Byron Scott, and Rod Strickland.

Dallas Mavericks: We went over this before…Derek Harper is the clear choice.

Denver Nuggets: Andre Miller is also a candidate here. His competition is Marcus Camby and Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. Miller wasn’t quite as good in Denver as he was in Cleveland but he was better than Abdul-Rauf. I would still take Camby, who was as productive as Miller but over a longer stretch of time and really did deserve an All-Star berth and some point the last few years.

Detroit Pistons: An argument can be made for very helpful subsidiary players on the title teams like Tayshaun Prince and Vinnie Johnson but neither player ever seemed like All-Stars. On the other end of the spectrum, John Long had a few gaudy stat years where he scored over 19 ppg for the Pistons but didn’t do much else statistically. Long is closer to what one would traditionally consider an All-Star but I think Prince was clearly a more valuable player and the one with more of an All-Star game claim.

Golden State Warriors:  Take your choice between some good shooting guards. I was always partial to Purvis Short, a jump shooter who was deadly from the corner in the 1980s and put up 28 ppg in 1984-85. Jason Richardson was more of an all-around player than Short but didn’t last in Golden State nearly as long. Despite some nice numbers from those guys, Sleepy Floyd is the best of the bunch with his scoring point guard routine. Floyd was dominant for about two years and had better stats than either of them (putting up PERs over 20 for two straight seasons before being traded to Houston for Ralph Sampson).

Houston Rockets: Once again, we run into a bunch of decent but not great guards. In the 1970s, Mike Newlin scored and was a fair player. Ditto for Cuttino Mobley in the 2000s. Neither choice is particularly satisfying but Newlin played a good deal more in Houston, which gives him the slight edge.

Indiana Pacers: The Pacers have another of the memorable non-All-Stars in Chuck Person, who looked like a budding star in the late 1980s. In retrospect, his numbers were quite as impressive but it is still surprising he never made an All-Star team given his loud persona and his superifically solid scoring numbers.

Los Angeles Lakers: Like the Celtics, Lakers make All-Star teams copiously. Of the current group, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum haven’t made the game but it looks like Bynum will be an All-Star pretty soon. There one semi-major exception to this rule for the Lakers is Byron Scott.  Scott had a claim in the 1986-87 and 1987-88, as he peaked when the Lakers were at the height of their dynasty. His not making it was not an injustice but it was surprising to me. Odom had a decent argument too but his raw numbers were better before the Lakers made their current title runs.

Los Angeles Clippers: Conventional wisdom is that Ron Harper is the clear Clipper choice. Harper scored a ton but was not a particularly efficient player in Los Angeles except for the 30 games he played before blowing out his knee in 1989-90. From 1990-91 to 1993-94, Harper scored but otherwise was unimpressive (best PER in that period was 16.1). His teammate of that time, Loy Vaught has at least as good a case for being the Clipper non-All-Star. The choice to me, however, is Corey Maggette. He was much maligned in Los Angeles but Maggette could (and still can) score like a machine. For the past six years, Maggette was free throw machine and neither Harper nor Vaught were quite as good.

Memphis Grizzlies: Yikes. There really aren’t any All-Stars we missed here. Zach Randolph has barely been in town (and likely will make the team this year) so the only choice is Rudy Gay, who is in the midst of his third 18-20 ppg season.

Miami Heat: In Miami, the choice comes down to original Heat Rony Seikaly and Brian Grant. Seikaly scored 16+ ppg and 10+ rpg for five years but was held back by his turnovers and weak defense. Grant only lasted three years in Miami and couldn’t score most of that time but was a great rebounder and defender. Neither ever deserved an All-Star birth but Grant’s defensive abilities pushes him ahead.

Milwaukee Bucks: Andrew Bogut is climbing the ladder but the Bucks had two very effective veterans who are the top candidates for right now. Junior Bridgeman was a nice small forward/shooting guard for the Bucks who was All-Star level at his peak in 1978-79. At or around the same time, Paul Pressey was effective for the Bucks as the original point-forward. We’ll go with Pressey because his range of his skills was so diverse, while Bridgeman was more of a scorer.

Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves lack candidates. The past candidates are quite tepid decent players who starred for the original crappy expansion seasons, like Tony Campbell, J.R. Rider, Pooh Richardson, and Doug West. We usually like to take players who have been in town a while but Al Jefferson and Kevin Love are both so much better than that group ever was that we’ll pick the newbies in Minnesota, with the vet Jefferson edging out Love for now.

New Jersey Nets: Drazen Petrovic might’ve taken this title had he been a Net a little longer but Richard Jefferson was cusping All-Star for a few years in the mid-2000s and easily could’ve made it in 2003-04 and 2005-06. The ship has probably sailed on RJ as an All-Star but he looked very good during the Nets’ run as a good team.

New Orleans Hornets: Most of the good Hornets made an All-Star team at one time or another. The sleeper here was Elden Campbell, who had a nice run with the Hornets at center as he approached his mid-30s. In 2001-02, Campbell he had 18 ppg, 9 rpg and 19.5 PER and just missed the team. Campbell’s timing was a little off because his replacement at center in 2003-04, Jamaal Magloire made the All-Star team in the thin East with much less impressive numbers than Elden put up.

New York Knicks: Ray Williams was a good scorer for the Knicks in the early 1980 but Marcus Camby was a dynamic player for the Knicks and was more valuable to the Van Gundy Knicks than more ballyhooed Allan Houston or Latrell Sprewell. Camby was never healthy but played liked an absolute All-Star in 1999-00 and 2000-01.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Clearly, Kevin Durant is the pick here. Durant’s non-All-Star status should last about another 12 hours. From the Seattle days, there is no great choice. If forced to choose, Sam Perkins is the default choice.

Orlando Magic: Nick Anderson is the franchise leader in games and points (until Dwight Howard laps him) and has a good case for an All-Star berth but the best non-All-Star is the underrated Darrell Armstrong. Armstrong put up a dominant season in 1998-99, when the Magic surprised the NBA with a tough team and continued to play like an All-Star for three more seasons (credit Chuck Daly for realizing that his best player wasn’t Penny Hardaway but previous fringe NBAers Armstrong).  

Philadelphia 76ers: Philly’s choice is Andre Iguodala, whose career mirrors Richard Jefferson’s on so many levels. Good but not great athletic forwards from Arizona, who were a bit overpaid. Unlike RJ, Iguodala does have a shot of making the All-Stars if he steps up his play in the next two or three years. If Iguodala ever does make an All-Star team, the next best Sixer is the immortal Clarence Weatherspoon, a good undersized forward who was Philly’s replacement for Charles Barkley back in 1992.

Phoenix Suns: Pretty much every good player in Phoenix history has made an All-Star game. The choice comes down to the sixth man of the 1980s, Eddie Johnosn, and the sixth man of the 2000s, Leandro Barbosa. EJ had a long storied career and it’s surprising he never made an All-Star team with the Kings. On Phoenix, he was about as good as Barbosa for slightly shorter amount of time. Barbosa may eventually eclipse in this category as a Sun but we go with EJ based upon his long career (1,199 games and 17 seasons) without an All-Star game.

Portland Trailblazers: Portland has a bunch of players with an argument for an All-Star birth. Zach Randolph was great in 2006-07 (and a dog in some other seasons) and Jerome Kersey was a very good player for several years, though he wasn’t really a clear cut All-Star ever. Both Rod Strickland and Arvydas Sabonis, however, should’ve made multiple All-Star games. How to choose between the two? Well, Strick was so good for so long his exclusion really makes no sense, except of course for his off-the-court issues we touched upon last time.  Sabonis never played big minutes, so his failure to make the team is less surprising. 

Sacramento Kings: We mentioned Eddie Johnson previously and he is almost dead even with Mike Bibby for best non-All-Star King. EJ played 483 games as a King and was a scoring machine (22 ppg in 1983-84 and 1984-85). Bibby played 476 games as a King and didn’t score quite as much but was the intiator of a great Kings team in the early 2000s. Based upon his ability to score and pass, Bibby is the choice in a very close race.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs are another team with no real viable candidate. One would think that Sean Elliott, another solid Arizona small forward, would take the honors but I was surprised to see that he made the All-Star game twice. The choice comes done to one of three decent guards. Jame Silas was the point for the Spurs in the late 1970s and was pretty good. He also does get a bit of an asterisk because he did make two ABA All-Star games. Johnny Moore, his replacement, was fairly effective too (13 ppg, 10 apg, and 2.5 spg in the mid-1980s). Avery Johnson, the Spurs point for most of the 1990s, was solid but wasn’t quite as good as Moore or Silas. We’ll take Moore because of his defense and the fact that Silas did kind of make an All-Star team anyway.

Toronto Raptors: It feels like 100 years ago, but Damon Stoudamire was the talk of the rookie class of 1995 and seemed destined to be a future All-Star for the Raps in 1995-96 (19 ppg, 9.3 apg, 16.7 PER) and 1996-97 (20 ppg, 8.8 apg, 18.1 PEr). Looking at Stoudamire’s numbers through PER makes them seem much less impressive and more of a high volume shooeter in retrospect but he was a really hot commodity for the first few Toronto teams. Jose Calderon is a much more efficient player than Mighty Mouse was and is the better stats choice but from pure knee jerk reaction, Stoudamire’s failure to make an All-Star team in Toronto is still more surprising.

Utah Jazz: Before Stockton-Malone, Darrell Griffith scored 19.8 ppg or higher for the first five years of his career.  His PER never topped 16.1 PER and occupies a similar sphere to Ron Harper or Cuttino Mobley, a good scorer without being a great player. Griffith’s numbers and his ability to dunk should still probably have gotten him one All-Star birth.

Washington Wizards: Not much in Wizard Land to talk about these days but they did have a few good now All-Stars: the aforementioned Rod Strickland, 1960s scorer Kevin Loughery, and Jeff Ruland, who was good for about two years at the start of his career before injuries derailed him. My inclination is to lean towards Loughery because he lasted so long with the Bullets but Strickland was so good, he deserves to be the choice.

East

-G: Allen Iverson

-G: Dwyane Wade

-F: LeBron James

-F: Kevin Garnett

-C: Dwight Howard 

West

-G: Steve Nash

-G: Kobe Bryant

-F: Carmelo Anthony

-F: Tim Duncan

-C: Amare Stoudemire

As many have noted, the All-Star elections inherently flawed because of the rigid positions assigned to players on the ballot.  Per ballot classifications, Duncan must be a forward when he is really a  center and, conversely, Stoudemire must be considered a center when he is more of a forward on most teams.  This caused us to miss out on Dirk Nowitzki as a starter (TD could’ve and should’ve been slotted to center).  In the East, KG has certainly been good enough to make the team but Chris Bosh has been significantly better and healthier.  Of course, the long-term stars get a benefit of the doubt from fans in these types of votes.  The real silly choice though was Iverson, who has been barely average when he has played (his Philly stats are 33.5 mpg, 14.8 ppg, .444 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 4.5, apg, 14.7 PER).  But this is the nature of the beast.  The NBA election is designed to feature the players the fans want.  This is the primary goal.  If AI is the choice, however misguided on merit, I don’t have a problem with it.  

As for the reserves, here’s how I would go with reserves: 

East

-G: Rajon Rondo: Has been the best point guard in the East so far, when you account for his excellent defense.  As an aside, the East points have been weak as a group, with Devin Harris struggling and Gilbert Arenas probably out for a while.

-G: Joe Johnson:  Best shooting guard in the East, non-D-Wade Edition and JJ stands over his competitors as much as Rondo, who have also been pretty weak (teammate Jamal Crawford is actually playing as well as any shooting guard behind JJ right now).

-G: Derrick Rose:  This should really be Andre Iguodala but the NBA usually likes to take an even number of guards and forwards.  Rose has been playing played better lately and is fun to watch both of which give him a plausible argument to make the team.

-F:  Paul Pierce:  Pierce is ostensibly tied with Gerald Wallace in terms of production.  Pierce’s ability to score and his past history of success are the tie-breakers in my mind.  Danny Granger and Antawn Jamison were both good but Granger was hurt for almost half the season so far and Jamison can’t defend at all and missed about ten games.

-F: Josh Smith:  Smith is in his own category right now.  A devastating athlete and shot blocker, he has scored well but his PER (21.7) doesn’t do him justice.  If you account for his defensive presence, Smith is the best forward in the East outside of Bosh.

-F: Chris Bosh:  If you buy his classification as forward, Bosh has been incredible so far.  He should clearly be starting right now but a bench slot will have to do for now.

-C: Al Horford:  Horford’s numbers haven’t been incredible.  Still, the only other centers in the East with higher PERs are Brook Lopez and David Lee (and Andrew Bogut is not far behind).  In choosing All-Stars, I am not a big fan of choosing players based upon the record of their teams.  It isn’t Lopez’s fault that the Nets are abysmal but when the stats are close, team success is a factor to consider.  Indeed, separating these four centers isn’t easy.  Lee isn’t a great defender and Bogut missed some time with injuries but this is really a dartboard type choice.  I’ll go with Horford, the most complete and healthy player of the three, but Lopez should eclipse all these guys pretty soon. 

West

-G: Chris Paul:  CP3 is the best point guard in basketball, though picking Nash over him to start is not a miscarriage of justice.  Interestingly, the West has four point guards (Paul, Nash, Billups, and D. Williams) better than the best point in the East (Rondo).

-G: Brandon Roy:  Roy is the best two-guard outside of Kobe out West.  His only real competition is Manu Ginobili, who hasn’t been healthy enough to challenge for the spot (Roy plays 12 more minutes a game and has played in four more games total, all with slightly better rate stats too).

-G: Deron Williams:  The race between Williams and Billups is basically a dead heat.  Billups has missed a few more games, which is my tie-breaker.

-F: Kevin Durant: Durant is as good as Carmelo Anthony right now and clearly deserves to be on the team.  We should also take this opportunity to give some credit to Corey Maggette.  He’s not an All-Star but Maggette is putting up strong numbers (22.4 PER) and is a very useful player.  A contender would be well-advised to try to poach him from Golden State, who sometimes will give away players for no apparent reason.

-F: Dirk Nowitzki:  The best power forward in the West.  Dirk isn’t as good as he was in the mid-2000s but is still deadly.

-F: Zach Randolph:  Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph are very close stat-wise but Randolph has played in nearly double the games.  There is no way I’d take Gasol over Randolph going forward but for the first half, Randolph has been more productive.  In the same vein, Kevin Love’s rate stats are also quite impressive (but he has also missed a ton of time with injuries).

-C: Andrew Bynum:  As in the East, we have plenty of center candidates to choose from.  In addition to Bynum, Marc Gasol, Nene, Al Jefferson, and Chris Kaman all are about as good so far this year.  I see Bynum as the best combination of offense/defense but have no problem with any of the choices. 

-AI  and BJ: We also mentioned that Iverson’s 14.7 PER with Philly (14.9 overall) might be the worst of an All-Star starter.  For what it’s worth, B.J. Armstrong was elected as starter in 1993-94 and ended up with a 14.5 PER for the season (14.8 ppg, .476 FG%, 2.1 rpg, 3.9 apg).  We assume Iverson will end up with better numbers than B.J. did but this is not a given. 

-Best to Never Make the All-Star Game:  Every year around this time we all discuss the best players never to make an All-Star team.  We remember the names that are bandied about.  Derek Harper usually sticks out and the leader in this field, though Sam Cassell was in the discussion until he finally made an All-Star team in 2003-04.  John Hollinger examined this issue back in 2003 (before Cassell made the All-Star team) and found the best historical candidates were Cassell, Derek Harper, Ron Harper, Eddie Johnson, K.C. Jones, Drazen Petrovic, Arvydas Sabonis, Byron Scott, and Rod Strickland.  Were these guys ever legitimately snubbed from All-Star team?  Let’s take a look… 

-Derek Harper: From 1985-86 to 1990-91, Harper played on an All-Star level.  He could score and was an excellent defender.  His misfortune was playing behind Magic Johnson and John Stockton most of that time.  Harper probably deserved to make the team in 1985-86 and 1986-87.  At that time, Stockton wasn’t yet a star and the West took no backup point for Magic.  The most frustrating instance had to be 1985-86 when the game was in Dallas and Harper’s backcourt mate Rolando Blackman made the team an the team had no backup point. 

-Ron Harper:  Harper was a prolific scorer but has little to complain about in terms of All-Star recognition.  Harper only had one remarkable full season (1988-89 when he had a 19.8 PER) but he wasn’t going to start over Michael Jordan.  Harper did miss the team in favor of Mark Jackson (who was the third point guard behind Mark Price and Isiah Thomas), when Jackson was good but not great.  Still, this is not a huge slight.

-Eddie Johnson:  Johnson had a long productive career but never really had a huge peak.  His best year was also 1988-89, when he put up a 19.0 PER and scored well off the bench for the Suns.  But the West already had James Worthy, Clyde Drexler, and Chris Mullin coming off the bench.  EJ had no place on the team.  The odd thing about the 1988-89 Western All-Stars is that they added Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (who was pretty much done but made the team as part of his retirement tour), Mark Eaton, and Kevin Duckworth on the bench.  Three centers plus Hakeem and absolutely no backup point.  Where’s Stockton? 

-K.C. Jones:  Jones just didn’t belong on an All-Star team.  He was a great role playing defender but he couldn’t score (career high 9.2 ppg during the run and gun 1962-63 season).  That’s not going to cut it in a conference with Oscar Robertson, Bob Cousy and Hal Greer.

-Drazen Petrovic:  Petro’s premature death was a sad story and you had to think he probably would’ve made the All-Star team in 1993-94 if he had still been alive and played around the same level (averageish guards B.J. Armstrong and John Starks made that team).  I do vividly remember reports of Petrovic’s anger over missing the 1992-93 team when he scored 22 ppg and Joe Dumars made it for a struggling Pistons’ squad.  In fact, Petrovic destroyed Dumars when they met in February 1993.  As was reported in the New York Times on February 10, 1993: “Then there was the battle between All-Star Joe Dumars, one of the best shooting guards in the league, and Drazen Petrovic. Like Anderson and Coleman, Petrovic wanted to show the fans a little something extra after being snubbed for the All-Star team. Often criticized for his defense, Petrovic held Dumars to zero points. That’s right, zilch. It was the first time since his rookie season (1985-86) Dumars was held scoreless.  ‘People say I can’t play defense,” said Petrovic, who had 13 points. “I just wanted to go out there and prove some things.’”  Despite this inspired play, Petro wasn’t better than Dumars in 1992-93.  Dumars scored more and was a better defender and passer and this was not a really bad snub.

-Arvydas Sabonis:   Sabonis was always under appreciated because of his unathletic look and the fact that Portland kept him on a short leash minutes-wise.  Sabonis was so good in his limited minutes, however, that he probably merited an All-Star pick at some point between 1995-96 and 1999-00.  The real problem was that the West was so filled with Hall of Fame centers (Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajwuon, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan) that it’s hard to say that Sabonis was truly jobbed unless one expected that the West should take three of four centers.

-Byron Scott:   I was pretty surprised that Scott, a very good player for a dynastic team in Los Angeles, never got an All-Star birth.  Usually Celtics and Lakers make the All-Star team if they play well at all.  Nick Van Exel and Cedric Ceballos have made the team.  Hell, A.C. Green even started one year.  On merit, Scott was only All-Star level briefly (in 1987-88) but he had significant competition at the two guard (Fat Lever, Alvin Robertson, and Clyde Drexler all made the team).

-Rod Strickland:  Strickland absolutely played like an All-Star for much of the 1990s but he couldn’t make the teams.  While the point slot was quite competitive (Tim Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, John Stockton), Strickland played as well as most of them at one point or another.  The real problem was that Strickland had extracurricular problems that sabotaged his candidacy.  Had he been a model citizen, Strickland certainly would have made the team in 1994-95 and possibly every season from 1992-93 to 1998-99.

The Facts

-On December 21, 2009, Arenas places several unloaded guns in front of the locker of teammate Javaris Crittenton.  The guns were apparently put out because Arenas and Crittenton had a dispute about who should pay have to pay the pot in a poker game.  Arenas and Crittenton both lost the hand but Arenas had refused to pay, enraging Crittenton.  It’s not clear what the details of why Arenas wouldn’t pay or whether his refusal was legitimate but it’s hard not to notice that Arenas is set to make $16.2 million this season and has five more years left at about $20 million per year while Crittenton is on a one-year $1.5 million deal. 

It’s hazy what happened next but Crittenton definitely became angry and either (a) threw one of the unloaded guns across the room and commented that he had his own loaded gun or (b) brandished his own gun at Arenas. 

-The incident didn’t hit the press for a few days and at that time Arenas didn’t handle it well.  The NBA and the Wizards seemed to have a wait and see stance on Arenas’ potential criminal liability, allowing him to play while law enforcement investigated the incident.  On the court, Arenas seemed unaffected, as he put up roughly the same numbers the last week that he had all season.  Off the court, it’s not clear how Arenas was feeling.  Was he nervous?  Well, he kept twittering nonsensical comments indicating that he didn’t take the whole situation very seriously and, of course, there was his joking gun salute in the huddle before the game on January 5th. 

The NBA has now suspended Arenas indefinitely and without pay, ostensibly for acting like an idiot since the incident.  While there are some questions as to whether Arenas could be suspended indefinitely for being an idiot, it appears that he isn’t contesting the suspension, perhaps because this might actually get him to act somewhat sane. 

What will happen to Arenas? 

In the longer term, Arenas could be in some trouble for his gun possession charge.  I’m not privy to the penalties for gun possession laws in Washington D.C. but a nice breakdown of the criminal issues can be found over at East-Coast-Bias.  In addition to potential jail time, Arenas is also looking at contract issues since the CBA allows a team to void a contract where the player is convicted of a felony.  The Arenas contract (six years and $111 million) was a really bad risk before all these issue just based upon his prior knee issues so the Wiz may now jump at any chance at voiding the contract, or perhaps using that threat to reach a favorable buyout.  Arenas should be okay monetarily (he’s earned $66 million before this year) but leaving roughly $100 million on the table makes anyone wince. 

What the hell was Arenas doing? 

Arenas has been known to be a bit of a nut most of his career, notably claiming that he filled out 50,000 All-Star ballots in 2006-07 in an attempt to make the All-Star team.  This wasn’t harmful stuff, as much as Arenas silliness but he had vowed to be a bit more serious this year, telling the Washington Post in Septenber 2009: “I mean, I’m 27 now. I’m not the entertainer anymore,” Arenas said to start off this period. “I just want to play. I don’t have a blog. I don’t have a Twitter. When I was blogging and playing, all you guys focused on was my words. I’d just rather be focused, cut the gimmick out and play basketball.”  Less than two months later, Arenas, who claimed to be miserable without his persona,  signed up with Twitter and announced his plan to get one million followers before he would agree posting for his followers.  Shortly thereafter, we come to the current issues.  

Can people use this incident to make unfair generalizations about the NBA players? 

Of course.  It seems that there is growing sentiment with the general public that the Arenas affair represents all that’s wrong with the NBA, thuggish players brandishing guns and making threats.  Of course, the stories we’ve heard so far show no evidence that Arenas was making any sort of threats.  Really, Arenas showed himself to be totally immature wiseass during the December 21st confrontation, something he was before and has continually confirmed ever since.  (By contrast, virtually no one has discussed Delonte West being caught with a cache of weapons in a guitar case while riding on the street).  

This is also not the first NBA card game dispute to publicly affect a team. Who could forget in 1998-99 when Jerry Stackhouse gave a black eye to teammate Christian Laettner aboard the team plane.  According to CNNSI.com, “the players were arguing over $2,000, and Stackhouse landed some blows to Laettner’s face.”  The Pistons publicly denied the altercation but the article notes that a source stated that card games would be banned in the future.  Might be a good league policy now. 

Sure, fights happen but what’s the deal with the guns? 

Indeed, there is a real question as to why many NBA players seem to be so heavily armed.  I don’t see much utility in gun ownership in most cases but I do know that NBA players have been targeted over the past few years for robberies.  Over the past decade, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Antoine Walker, Chris Childs, and Nazr Mohammed were all robbed at gun point at various times and Eddy Curry was duct-taped to a chair at gun point during a scary home invasion.  So, there is at least anecdotal evidence that NBA players want to be able to protect themselves (though David Stern has made it clear that he believes that having a weapon actually makes a player less safe because countering a gun with a gun only will escalate such situations).

Is there a moral to this story? 

In the end, the lessons seem to be clear: 

-NBA players carry guns far too often and are ignorant of the rather strict gun control laws that are enforced, particularly in urban areas.

-The general public understands this controversy in only the most simple terms that are, for the most part, inaccurate.

-Gilbert Arenas is still an immature wiseass and has inability to curb his tendencies could cost him his freedom, $100 million, and his NBA career.

-Twitter and other first person media have served to turn a normal controversy into an absolute whirlwind. 

I hope that Arenas is penalized fairly under the circumstances.  Jail time does not seem to be an appropriate response to this alleged crime but this is a very high profile case and that, coupled with Arenas’ post-incident behavior, almost dare authorities to seek maximum penalties.  No matter what happens, Arenas has no one to blame but himself.

In 1976, the NBA and various members of the ABA (New Jersey Nets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, and San Antonio Spurs) were talking about a limited merger that would exclude the other ABA teams (Kentucky Colonels and the St. Louis Spirits).  St. Louis ended up threatening to sue the ABA teams and the NBA based on various theories.  The lawsuit was a double threat: it had some merit on its own terms and its presence complicated the NBA’s relationship with the players’ union, which had its own antitrust suit pending against the NBA.  It would have been impossible to resolve the union’s lawsuit without also resolving St. Louis’ suit.  In 1977, the settlements were finally reached of all disputes.  The union received free agency, Kentucky received a one-time $3.3 million buyout, and the Spirits negotiated a slightly different deal, $3 million up front plus a portion of the merging ABA teams television revenues.  

Based upon the allegations in the 2009 complaint, we get to see exactly how the revenue is calculated.  The Spirits new complaint quotes a provision of the deal that states that the Spirits get: “T.V. Revenues equal to the aggregate to one-seventh (1/7th) of four twenty-seconds (4/22nds) of the T.V. Revenue earned by the NBA commencing with the first day on which [the merging ABA teams] are entitled to share in T.V. revenues under [the agreement]…,[I]n the event there are in the future more than twenty-two (22) NBA teams, [the] Spirits shall be entitled to a proportionately smaller share of T.V. Revenues (e.g. twenty-four (24) teams = 1/7 x 4/24) provided however that the Spirits in no event and under no circumstances shall be entitled to or be paid less than 1/7th of 4/28th of the T.V. Revenues, except as the parties may otherwise agree to in writing.”  In case you’re wondering, the Spirits’ counsel calculated that in the 2009-10 NBA St. Louis is now entitled to 1/49th of television revenues.  According to this 2006 L.A. Times article, the Spirits initially made about $300,000 per year off of the deal in the late 1970s.  As the NBA grew, so did television revenues.  The Spirits made about $15 million per year in the 1990s and roughly $24 million per year since the new television contract was signed in 2002.  

As with any ongoing agreement between two adversarial parties, this agreements hasn’t been without hiccups.  In 1984, the NBA sued the Spirits of St. Louis in action to determine what amounts were actually due under the settlement agreement.  Other than the general nature of the case, we cannot find any documents that provide the exact details of the dispute.  Still, the new case was settled and things were relatively quiet (or litigation free at least) until this year, when the Spirits again sued the NBA, claiming that the NBA has refused to pay “visual media broadcast” revenues for NBA TV games and cable broadcasts that were generated outside of the geographical limits of the teams (particularly the international markets) and that the NBA refuses to allow the Spirits access to the books to determine if the NBA is holding back revenues.  The NBA just recently obtained a dismissal of the action on procedural grounds (i.e. that it should’ve been filed in Federal Court and not State Court) but it looks like the epic battle/relationship will continue in Federal Court (the Spirits have also appealed the procedural dismissal). 

Can this relationship ever end?  Assuming that the NBA continues to exist and thrive, it’ll be tough for the NBA to ever get out.  Just for fun, I thought I’d throw out a few possible options.  I realize that high powered attorneys and experts have contemplated this issue for over 30 years so we are unlikely to come up with an answer here and now.  Still, it’s no fun just to give up so here goes: 

-A buyout:  Like any contract you regret, the quickest exit is pay off.  Obviously, the NBA would have to pay a ton of up front money to convince the Spirits to give up a zero cost asset that has yielded a few hundred million dollars already.  As such, the NBA would have to pay serious cash to make the Spirits even think about this, so we doubt this is a viable option.

-Technology Change:  We don’t have the actual settlement agreement, so its impossible to determine exactly what its terms are.  We do know that the Spirits get a share of revenues in sale or license of visual media broadcasts.  In 1976 when the agreement was first contemplated, that was limited to television.  It is very possible that we could reach a day when the television becomes obsolete (or much less relevant) and games are broadcast mostly over the internet or some new medium.  Is the term “visual media broadcasts” expansive enough to cover such new mediums?  It sounds pretty broad but we don’t have the agreement.  At the very least, that’s a kernel of an idea for the NBA to play with.

-Self-Broadcast?:    Again, no settlement agreement has been reviewed but the agreement seems to cover the sale or license of broadcasts.  If the NBA only self-broadcast games, would that be an exception to “sale of license”?  It’s not clear without info but the Spirits’ complaint in this case seems to indicate that it wouldn’t.  The Spirits are seeking revenues for games that are currently broadcast on NBA-TV, which is owned by the NBA.  Assuming self-broadcast did constitute an exception, it would be hard for the NBA to give up network revenue for a risk like self-broadcast, though some degree of self-broadcast could at least defray some of the revenue lost to the agreement. 

In all cases, we’ll keep watching the Spirits/NBA dance.  That fact is, there is a good chance that someone could be talking about this agreement in the year 2109 with many of the same issues popping up.