I look for a few things when trying to predict the tournament winner. The first and most obvious is that the team is one of the very best in the nation. The next is that it’s a veteran team with a core that has been together at least a couple of years and preferably longer. The team should win their conference tournament. Finally I look for teams with quality big men. Other things are nice, particularly a coach who has a history of success. Those have been the easy to spot characteristics of recent NCAA champions. Kentucky was an exception last year, winning with so many freshmen. In the case of the Wildcats, their overall talent ended up trumping everything else. There are no Kentuckys this year.

Upsets

The upsets on the first weekend are what the tournament is all about. Here are the games I see as potential shockers, listed in order of most likely to happen.

Belmont over Arizona: I doubt a lower seed has ever screamed “pick me” as loudly as the 2013 Belmont Bruins. This is a senior-laden team going to their third consecutive tournament. There’s very little chance such a team will suffer from a case of being just happy to be here. More likely, after consecutive round one exits, they’ll see this as their last chance to do something truly special as a Belmont Bruin and come out firing. Arizona, like the entire PAC-12, is a team in transition. They recovered nicely from a down year in 2012, but are still a work in progress. The team is good and won’t be an easy out, but is built with more of an eye toward 2014 than anything. Before the seedings came out I saw Belmont as a team likely to pull off a first round upset and Arizona as a likely round one upset victim. The fact that they’re squaring off makes this upset pick an easy one to make.

Minnesota over UCLA: UCLA is in a similar situation to Arizona. A nice recruiting year has gotten them back into the top 25, but it’s just one step. They’re still a young, inexperienced team that lacks quality bigs and has only one season playing together. It doesn’t help the Bruins that likely NBA draftee Jordan Adams will be out. Minnesota is a tough, veteran group that’s still standing following a rugged Big 10 season. They should prevail.

New Mexico State over Saint Louis: I’m not sure how Sim Bhullar, the Aggies 7’5” freshman center, slipped under my prospect radar all year. That has been fixed. I feel he’ll be a load for the small Billikens to handle. NMSU has gone 18-2 since a 6-8 start. They’re a young team, which is certainly a negative, but they really seem to be getting it together at the right time. Saint Louis is the type of small, scrappy, overachieving team that just doesn’t do well in the tournament. This looks like an upset to me. Take NMSU all the way to the Sweet 16.

St Mary’s over Memphis: The Gaels were not only shoved into a play-in game as an 11 seed, but more than any other team they had to endure talk radio gasbags across the country ranting against their inclusion as if it’s some sort of life and death tragedy. From what little I know about athletes I’m certain such things will put a chip on the collective shoulder of this team. That should give them enough of an edge to get them past a Memphis team that their pretty much in the same class as anyways. So how come the first round games don’t involve only 16 seeds? Can anyone answer that one for me?

San Diego State over Oklahoma: In the original post I made a mistake and put South Dakota State as beating Oklahoma. That won’t happen, because it’s San Diego State playing Oklahoma. I’m still going with the upset. Nate Wolters and the Jackrabbits will come up short against Michigan. Apologies for the original error.

Oregon over Oklahoma State: We all know a 12 beats a 5 every tournament. The Ducks are my #12 pick for 2013. While the Ducks are a PAC-12 team, they do have the size and experience edge on OSU that should swing this game their way.

Bucknell over Butler: Last year a small Missouri team was ousted by a small college team with a 7-footer headed for the NBA. A similar scenario is at play here. Butler is a good, well-coached team, but I don’t think they’ll have an answer for Bucknell’s Mike Muscala.

Creighton over Duke: This is a projected round 2 matchup. The Blue Jays have the look of a team that could surprise with a nice run. They have that size/experience combination that works well in the tournament. They have a likely first round draftee and possible Wooden award winner in McDermott. Duke is a good team that’s capable of a nice run, but they’re also a team that has had their share of problems in early rounds of recent tournaments. I feel Creighton will have what it takes to knock them off.

More 2013 Tournament thoughts

The selection committee didn’t do Gonzaga any favors. After round one the Zags’ worst case scenario is a very good Pitt team that’s wildly under rated as an 8^th seed. Following that is always tough Wisconsin. Should they get past the Badgers, waiting for them will be an Ohio State team that might be playing better than any team in the country right now. Gonzaga burst onto the national scene in the ’99 tournament as a surprise Elite 8 team. Since then they’ve been a tournament regular, but haven’t advanced past the Sweet 16. This year is their best ever chance to do that. I feel these Zags will have what it takes to make their first Final 4, mainly because I don’t see that any potential opponent has the size to stop Olynyk. It won’t be an easy road though.

Indiana and Kansas both face a tough round 2 matchup. For the Hoosiers it’s the winner of NC State/Temple. Both are big, veteran teams that have played in multiple tournaments. Following that the Hoosiers have Syracuse or UNLV, two teams talented enough to beat any team in the nation on any given day. Kansas is looking at the North Carolina/Villanova winner. Both are scrappy teams that are hard to put away. Carolina particularly brings unneeded drama for the Jayhawks.

Syracuse is a tempting Final 4 choice. They have as much quality size and NBA-level talent as any team in the tournament. That and they’re the team that won’t stop jumping off the brackets and into my mind as a team I should be watching. But when I see them playing Indiana, visions of Victor Oladipo abusing Michael Carter-Williams keep coming up, so I have to go with the Hoosiers.

I have no clue what to make of Miami. Any team that wins both the ACC regular season and tournament is a good team, even in what was a down year for the conference. They lack any serious pro prospects. They do have several good college players and more quality size than most teams. They’re one of the oldest teams in the tournament, but have no tournament experience. My best guess is they hit the Sweet 16 before a very good Marquette team eliminates them.

The 2-4 seeds I see as no threat would be Saint Louis, Kansas State, New Mexico, Michigan and Georgetown. All but New Mexico suffer from the lack of size and/or experience that typically sinks such teams. In the case of the Lobos, they’re just seeded too high at #3. For all these teams I see the Sweet 16 being as far as they advance.

First Round winners: I guess it’s really the second round and the play-in games are the first round, but whatever…Louisville, Missouri, Oregon, New Mexico State, St. Mary’s, Michigan State, Creighton, Duke, Gonzaga, Pitt, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Belmont, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Kansas, North Carolina, VCU, Michigan, Minnesota, Florida, San Diego State, Georgetown, Indiana, North Carolina State, UNLV, Syracuse, Bucknell, Marquette, Illinois, Miami.

Sweet 16: Lousiville, New Mexico State, Michigan State, Creighton, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Ohio State, Kansas, VCU, Florida, Georgetown, Indiana, Syracuse, Marquette, Miami.

Elite 8: Louisville, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kansas, Florida, Indiana, Marquette.

Final 4: Louisville, Gonzaga, Florida, Indiana.

Championship: Florida over Louisville. I give the Gators a slight edge for a few reasons. The first is I just like their talent better. I give Young and Murphy a slight edge over Dieng and Behanan inside. I feel the veteran Gator backcourt will deal with the Cardinal defense adequately enough. The fact that Louisville is a bad 3-point shooting team scares me. I know Florida finished the season with some conference losses. The same thing happened in ’06 and ’07 when the Gators won back-to-back titles. The scary thing about picking Florida is that they lost their conference championship game. That’s a bad sign, but one I’m going to overlook, because the coach seems like a guy who plays every game with an eye on getting his team ready for the tournament. The bottom line is the way this season has played out so far reminds me of the way ’06 and ’07 did for the Gators. That’s enough to make the Florida Gators my pick as the 2013 NCAA champion.

As for the West, it’s incredibly competitive this year. The reason for this is all the smart, creative front offices are in the West. Just look at how quickly Denver and Utah were able to retool after dumping their pricey superstars. While the East has more glamour locations, the West will continue to dominate as long teams like Dallas, Denver, Houston, OKC and Utah continue to employ the smartest guys in the league.

My system for predicting records is as follows. I project each player’s numbers for the upcoming season. It’s basically an average of his two previous seasons, with adjustments done for age. Next I try to translate the numbers into a winning percentage. I then make adjustments for team age, chemistry and other things I feel need to be factored in. Historically some of these are pretty good, while others are wildly wrong. Records are listed in reverse order, so all the drama, excitement and anticipation builds as you scroll to the bottom.

15. Portland Trailblazers: 23-59: I have them last because they’re on the downswing while the other weak sisters of the West all seem to be improving. The problem with the Blazers is the roster is so thin. In Aldridge, Batum and Matthews a decent top 3 is in place. The supporting cast is where they come up short. I have doubts about Lillard as a starting PG, despite his impressive summer league and pre-season. He better be as good as he’s looked, because there’s little in the way of other PG options. Handing the starting center job to rookie Meyers Leonard, who was only mildly productive in the Big 10 last year, will be a disaster. Again, there are few viable alternatives. This team has a mediocre core, no depth, and a new coach with a .406 career winning percentage. In the super-competitive West, that puts the Blazers in the basement.

14. Sacramento Kings: 27-55: The Kings have been in the accumulating talent mode for a few years and have added some nice pieces. They’ll win a few more games, but remain a little too dysfunctional to think they’re ready to make a move toward the playoffs. The top two players, DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans, have been up and down during their young careers. Cousins is a dominant rebounder and inside presence, but he can’t seem to hit more than 45% of his FG attempts. Because he takes so many shots, this makes the entire King’s offense inefficient.  Evans has regressed since a promising rookie season, but is in a contract year and looks like he’s back to his old form. The overall team defense has been among the worst in the league and there’s little reason to think that will improve with the same cast returning. The Kings are a team in need of some serious tweaking before they’re ready to compete.

13. Phoenix Suns: 29-53: The Suns have been on a slow decline since the glory days of the mid-aughts. With the center piece of that era, Steve Nash, departed for LA, look for the team to hasten that decline into lottery land for a few seasons. They’ve retained and added enough in the way of talent that they should be semi-competitive. I even give them an outside shot at the playoffs. They PG-center combination of Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat should be effective. Luis Scola is a solid PF. On the wing is a pair of recent top 5 draft picks, Wes Johnson and Michael Beasley, who both busted in their first NBA stops. I have my doubts either one will live up to the lofty draft position, but if both do, this projection is way low. Bottom line for Phoenix is they just don’t have enough firepower to compete in the West.

12. New Orleans Hornets: 33-49: I like Anthony Davis enough that even as a young rookie, I feel he’ll lift this team above the 20something win crowd and to the point where we might start whispering about playoff chances should everything else fall into place. Ryan Anderson is a good fit in the PF spot next to Davis and Eric Gordon has the potential to be a top 10 scorer if he can ever stay healthy for a full season. The Hornets are still at least a couple of years and a few smart moves away from joining the league’s elite. With Davis in the fold, rebuilding is off to a great start.

11. Golden State Warriors: 35-47: Most of the arrows are pointing up for the Warriors, I’m just not sure how far up. The Ellis-Bogut trade could have a huge effect on the Warriors season and even get them back into the playoffs should everything fall right. The biggest piece is Bogut, a marginal all-star when healthy. Bogut has missed a lot of games during his career and suffered a decline in efficiency the past couple of seasons when he did get on the court. His impact remains questionable, but he’ll be a huge asset if he can get back to where he was 2 years ago. The other reason moving Ellis helps is the PG position now belongs to Stephen Curry who seems ready to bust out as a legitimate star. Curry has also been dealing with injuries, so health issues could decide the season for the 2013 Warriors. If Bogut and Curry are healthy and at the top of their games, this team could well crash the playoffs. It won’t be more than the 7^th or 8^th seed, but that would be a great finish for a team that has been struggling for a while.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves: 40-42: The Timberwolves are a tough team to project and should be an interesting team to watch, at least early in the season. They’re bringing in a couple of former all-stars who were both out of the league last year in Andrei Kirilenko and Brandon Roy. Kirilenko played a season in Russia and Roy “retired” at age 26 because of bad knees. Kirilenko should be a solid addition and seems like a good fit pairing with superstar Kevin Love at forward. Roy is more of a question mark. If he can somehow come back as the 2009 version of Brandon Roy, which was one of the top guards in the league, the Timberwolves could win 50 games. If he plays closer to the 2011 version, they’ll eventually need to find another option at SG and will likely miss the playoffs again.

9. Dallas Mavericks: 42-40: The Mavericks are an old bunch. While I like logic of zigging against the current zag of the league and picking up cheap available talent like Elton Brand and OJ Mayo, I feel this team has lost too much and has gotten too old to compete with the best of the West any longer. Dirk Nowitzki is an all-timer, but is now 34 and had knee surgery recently. I expect some decline. Brand is 33 and Marion is 34. That means they’re both likely to decline. Kaman is 30, has been in decline for a few years and is injury-prone. In the backcourt, Collison and Mayo are both marginal starters at best. I just don’t see the 2011 Champs being able to compete with the best in the West and feel they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons.

8. Memphis Grizzlies: 47-35: While it isn’t time to write this team off just yet after their nice little run of the past few years, the Grizz roster has been somewhat static while the rest of the West has improved. Considering the ages of the core, there isn’t much in the way of improvement that could be expected, with the possible exception of until now unreliable youngsters Marreese Speights and Jarryd Bayless. On the other hand, this still is a good team and there’s no reason to think they’re in decline. If Zach Randolph brings his A-game to the playoffs they’re going to be a load to eliminate. But there’s also little reason to think they can improve on recent seasons when most of their competition has gotten better.

7. Los Angeles Clippers: 48-34: The West is tough at the top. That the Clippers finally have a strong team in place only to be buried by playing in what could be the most competitive conference ever, pretty much sums up the plight of this franchise. The Clippers have a great 1-2 punch in Paul and Griffin. Beyond that the team is a little soft in talent. While center DeAndre Jordan is a strong defender and finisher, the rest of the rotation is an aging group of former all-stars with a few overpaid, inefficient veterans thrown in. The Clippers would be better served if they surrounded their stars with some hungry defenders, rebounders and grinders.

6. Utah Jazz: 51-31: The Jazz are a good example of one of the West’s smart teams. When they needed to deal their superstar, it was done quickly and without drama. In return they received a haul that quickly made the team relevant again. One thing I really like about the Jazz is they have good potential for improvement via trade. In Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson they already have one of the best inside duos in the league. In reserve are a couple of promising youngsters in Derrick Favors and Enes Kantor. They have enough resources to make a deal to strengthen a weak perimeter without hurting themselves. With or without a deal this is a solid team. They’ll have a nice season, but will come up something short of elite.

5. Houston Rockets: 53-29: I actually liked the Rockets as a sleeper to crash the playoffs before the trade. The trade makes them damn near a playoff lock. The trade made two big improvements to the team. The upgrade of Harden over Martin is the big one. By adding Harden, who could well emerge as the league’s top SG now that he’s in a lead role, the Rockets now have one of the better young backcourts in the league. Harden can score and distribute, so he should be a great fit with Lin. They also upgraded the center position by adding Aldrich, a player who looks ready to contribute. With Asik and Aldrich in the middle, the Rockets should be one of the better defensive teams in the league. The forward positions would seem to be a weak link, but there’s enough depth, youth and diversity here that an effective forward rotation should emerge. I liked the direction they were headed before the trade and I like it even more after.

4. San Antonio Spurs: 56-26: It is tempting to put them at the top again. They’ve been the West’s top seed for 2 consecutive years now and have everyone back. They’ve filled in the roster around the aging big 3 brilliantly, whether through the draft or finding cheap, useful free agents like Gary Neal and Danny Green. The Spurs just haven’t been able to run with the talented young teams once the playoffs start and I see no reason to think that will change. Expect a slight tick downward in the record as the stars age and another disappointing playoffs.

1.(tie) Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-22: Being that I’m not an insider, I’ll mostly stay away from addressing the reasons Sam Presti saw fit to weaken what looked like a coming dynasty and deal Harden so quickly and for so little in return. Plenty of folks with inside knowledge will be breaking all that down better than I could. I’ll admit that predicting a 3-way tie atop the West after having my vision for the 2013 season jumbled by the trade is something of a copout. The Thunder looked to me like a clear favorite for both the conference and the NBA title before the trade. Now the situation is more muddled and I don’t see much that separates this team from the Lakers and Nuggets. They’re still very good and should be considered a threat to win it all. Durant and Westbrook are second only to LeBron and Wade as a top 2. The edge the Thunder duo has is they’re still improving. The supporting cast is group that’s strong defensively and is also young and improving. Kevin Martin should slide in as an effective bench scorer, despite being a downgrade from Harden. They’re still an elite team. They’re still one of 4 teams in the 2013 NBA with a legitimate shot at the championship. That’s good, but it could have been better.

1.(tie) LA Lakers: 60-22: I’m going to skip the gushing over how loaded this team is. That should be obvious to anyone who follows the sport. By adding Howard and Nash the Lakers have put themselves in position to add another trophy to their crowded mantle. I’m going to mention the concerns I have about whether the mix will work out. Concern #1: In the backcourt both Nash and Kobe are most effective with the ball in their hands and will have to learn to share. My thinking is that being two of the smarter players in the league they should be able to figure this out. Concenr#2: Kobe is 34 and Nash is 38. Both are likely to decline, possibly dramatically. Neither is likely to play at a level near their MVP peaks. But I suspect they’ll both be good enough to keep the Lakers elite. It might even serve as incentive to win the championship quickly before the window closes. Concern #3: The thing that worries me the most as far as the Lakers’ quest for a championship goes is Dwight Howard. He’s an all-time great defender, but he’s limited on offense. He doesn’t like to pass the ball. Centers who are poor passers have traditionally struggled to win a championship. That group includes Ewing, Mourning and Moses Malone (who got one, but only one). We’ll see how Howard adapts, but I feel this is a legitimate concern.  Concern #4:  That would be coach Mike Brown. He crapped out in the playoffs a couple times with LeBron when he went in as the top seed. These Lakers are a different group from those Cavs and could probably coach themselves. But if I were a Laker fan I’d feel a lot better if it were Phil Jackson back on the bench. With that in mind I see a 60-win regular season, but a team that comes up short in the playoffs.

1.(tie) Denver Nuggets: 60-22: This is a scary good team that should surprise the nation and run with the best in the West for most of the season. They added an all-star in Andre Iguodala to a roster full of talented, productive youngsters who seem ready to break out all at once. In addition to being young and talented, what I really like about this team is how well they fit together. There are two excellent PGs in Lawson and Miller. Iguodala is a great all-around player who should make everyone else better. Gallinari is the shooter. Faried is the rebounder and hustler. At center, JaVale McGee appears ready to bust out as one of the best in the league at his position. The roster has quality depth, so the team seems capable of weathering any injuries. The only reservation I have about this team is there is no superstar who produces at the level of a LeBron, Durant or Howard. Traditionally that has been a huge hurdle for a team to overcome in the quest for a championship. That makes the Nuggets a tough pick to win the conference. But the Western Conference suddenly looks as dysfunctional to me  as it does talented. The Spurs have issues with age, the Lakers are going to have chemistry problems and the young Thunder might need a season to recover from the shock of learning the realities of life in small market NBA. That leaves an opening for a cagey, veteran coach like George Karl to lead a fun, talented group of youngsters like the 2013 Denver Nuggets to the Western Conference Championship and into the NBA finals.

• A young player who playing is in his 3^rd or 4^th season. The only player over 30 to win the award was Darrell Armstrong in ’99, who was 30 at the time. Armstrong was a late bloomer who actually was in his 4^th NBA season at the time and didn’t play over 1000 minutes until he was 28. Of the 27 winners, only 5 have been over 25. So think young.
• Forwards are hot. The positional breakdown of MIP winners is 12 forwards, 9 guards and 6 centers. Forwards seem to be trending recently, having won 7 of the last 9. The last center to win was Jermaine O’Neal in ’02. The voters are thinking forwards for the MIP. That would be one explanation for the puzzling choice of Ryan Anderson over Greg Monroe last year.
• Like most awards, the MIP is driven by PPG more than any other stat. Every winner has experienced a fairly dramatic increase in PPG. The winner typically sees a jump in PPG from the low teens to the high teens. The next most likely scenario is a player who goes from very little playing time to the rotation and a PPG in the low teens. Occasionally the award goes to a player who ups his game from good, to all-star level. Danny Granger in ’09 being the most recent example.

With those three things in mind here are the players I feel are the most likely MIP winners going into the 2013 season.

1. Paul George, Indiana: George is my choice as the top candidate. He seems ready to step up as Granger’s #2. He’s had a couple of promising years with some flashes of great ability. He was at 12.1 PPG last year and a jump into at least the 17-18 range seems likely. I do have some reservations though. George has a solid all-around game and will get plenty of PT. His potential on offense is decent, but he hardly has the look of a 25 PPG guy as some others on this list do. It seems more likely his career best will top out short of 20 PPG as a scorer, but he’ll remain valuable because of his other skills. I’d also like him better if his scoring had improved over the course of last season, but that wasn’t the case. Those concerns aside, George is a talented young player who is going to get increased playing time on a very good team. His PPG last year was low enough that his ceiling isn’t going to be that high in order to get noticed. I see him as the slight early favorite over Hayward to win the 2013 MIP.
2. Gordon Hayward, Utah: I’ll toss other Jazz players Marvin Williams and Jeremy Evans in mix here too. The fact is the Jazz need some offense from the wing and they have plenty of candidates to provide it. Hayward seems like the most likely player to do so. He’s just 22, in his 3^rd season and is coming off a year where he showed decent improvement. He has shown flashes of greatness at both Butler and in his first couple of seasons at Utah. Williams is intriguing as a candidate, because he’s getting a change of scenery. He could blossom in a new environment. Evans is an interesting prospect. A slasher who has always hit well over 60% of his shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he busted out. He’ll have to play his way onto the court though. But Hayward is the guy to watch here. He’s the high draft pick and the guy who has flashed the most ability early in his career. He scored only 11.8 PPG last year. Should he up that to the 15-20 range, he’ll be in contention. Because he did average 15.3 PPG over the final 25 games last year, such improvement is more than likely, it is almost certain.
3. A Denver Nugget: The Nuggets roster looks like a MIP award waiting to happen. This is a team that’s likely to do a lot of running and score a lot of points, so the numbers will be there. The team is loaded with good candidates. Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee are all under 25, have been very productive players and appear ready to break out at some level. I would probably give Gallinari a slight edge over the other three. He’s the scorer and seems most likely to improve his PPG enough for consideration. Another reason to like the chances of a Denver player for the MIP is this team is going to be something of a media favorite. I see them running with the Thunder and Lakers for most of the year at the top of the West. Doing this with a roster void of a superstar and a likable coach will make the Nuggets one of the stories of the year. One result of that could be an edge with the voters when the hardware gets handed out.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State: Curry is the player most likely to win the MIP by going from good to all-star level, like Granger did a few years ago. Curry has been very good for 3 seasons now, averaging 17.5 PPG during that time. There’s a good chance he’ll really break out this year though. Monta Ellis is gone, so he’ll have the PG role to himself. I expect the APG to increase as a result of that. He’s a very capable scorer and could easily bust past 20 PPG. The Warrior roster has another interesting MIP candidate in Klay Thompson, but I don’t see him as player Curry is.
5. Jeremy Lin, Houston: The notoriety Lin received last year might hurt his MIP chances. Even if he averages the 18 PPG and 10 APG he seems capable of, Lin’s season won’t have the “out of nowhere” feel that would help a player win the MIP. Lin’s situation says he’s a great candidate though. He’s a young player who played well in low minutes and now will be getting an opportunity as a starter.
6. Evan Turner, Philadelphia: I guess it would be put up or shut up time for Turner. It’s time for the former #2 overall pick and college POY to take his career in the direction of impact player or bust. Iguodala’s exit should be a good thing for Turner. I could see him sliding right into that role, or at least starting out as a poor man’s Iguodala, as the skills are similar. The problem for Turner is he just hasn’t played that well so far. While he graded out as an excellent prospect coming in, he just hasn’t adjusted that well to the pro game. He isn’t a player like George or Hayward who just needs more minutes to produce. There are legitimate questions as to whether Turner can produce with extra minutes and scoring opportunities. His scoring has been inefficient, especially from behind the arc. Turner, who will be 24 this year, is older than a lot of  3^rd year players. That would also seem to hurt his chances. What he has going for him is his PPG of 9.4 from last year should be easy to improve on because he’s going to get the opportunity. We’ll see which way he goes with it. This would be a good place to mention that Turner’s teammate Jrue Holiday is also a decent MIP candidate.
7. James Harden, Oklahoma City: He is something of a star already thanks to playing on a conference champ and of course, the beard. But he’s also a young player capable of stepping up his game quite a bit. He’s definitely capable of scoring 20+ PPG. Last year he was at 16.8 and he’d need to kick it up over 20 to win MIP. His biggest problem is he’s on a roster that has Durant and Westbrook already combing for 50+PPG. He may not get enough opportunities to top 20 PPG. In the very unlikely event his contract situation forces a trade to a lottery team, Harden would become the favorite for the award in my book.
8. John Wall, Washington: He’s been OK, but really hasn’t stepped up as the superstar he was projected to be. His PPG has been just over 16, with poor efficiency. Derrick Rose made the big jump his 3^rd season, so it isn’t totally crazy to think Wall could do the same and post a 20-10 season in points and assists. While the idea of Wall winning an MVP, as Rose did, is crazy, he could challenge for MIP with such a season. The negative is his scoring has been so inefficient that it’s hard to see his numbers making such a jump.
9. Jerryd Bayless, Memphis: Bayless quietly had his best year as a 3-point shooter last year, hitting .423 while increasing his attempts by quite a bit. This tells me the improvement is probably real. He’s the 3^rd guard on the Memphis roster and should get a lot of minutes at both backcourt positions. He seems primed for a breakout season as a scorer off the bench and could even challenge for 6^th man of the year.
10. Cole Aldrich, Oklahoma City: Aldrich hasn’t seen much PT during his 2 seasons in OKC. That should change this year as he’s going to be the backup center. I can’t say what that will mean in terms of minutes. The man he’s replacing, Nazr Mohammed, played only 11 minutes per game last year. Should Aldrich post a similar total he would have no chance of winning. There are two reasons to think Aldrich is a dark horse to bust out in 2013 and win MIP. The first is he was a pretty solid prospect coming out of Kansas in 2010 and I would expect him to do well when his chances come. The other is Thunder starting center Kendrick Perkins has been in decline for a couple of seasons now. It isn’t crazy to think the Thunder will start to look at other options if this decline continues. So there could be big minutes for Cole Aldrich. I’ll add Hasheem Thabeet’s name here also. He’s in the Thunder training camp, could make the roster and finally blossom as a defensive presence. But I feel Aldrich is the guy to watch here.

Just because Davis is something close to a lock to win the ROY, doesn’t mean there aren’t several other intriguing rookies to watch. This list is based mostly on opportunity, but some on my feelings about each player’s potential. I don’t put much stock in slow or fast starts. These things even out when league play starts. The league will figure out the frauds and the truly talented players will eventually find their NBA legs. Sometimes that process takes as long as half a season.  These players are listed in order of what I feel their chances are after Davis.

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans: When predicting awards and anything else for that matter, the predictor can get into problems overthinking things while overlooking the obvious. In the case of Davis, it would be correct to say that it’s possible he won’t be one of the top scorers on his team and scoring is usually the skill that lands a player the ROY. But Anthony Davis is clearly the best player coming into the league this year and has a good chance at becoming an all-time great. It’s rare that a player coming into the league ready to make an impact, like Davis appears to be, doesn’t win the ROY. The only scenario this doesn’t happen is the presence of another great player in the same rookie class, like Jordan and Olajuwon in ’85. Barring injury, Anthony Davis will win the 2013 ROY.
2. Dion Waiters, Cleveland: Waiters by himself is a microcosm of the 2013 rookie class. I’m skeptical he’ll even make a ripple, but he does have some intriguing potential. He’s already getting some tough love from his coach and may struggle to get off the bench, at least in the first part of the season.  He responded well to such treatment at Syracuse and we’ll see how he handles this. In general I prefer to bet on players with ability as opposed to fast starters. Waiters’ run at Syracuse was enigmatic, but included flashes of greatness. Cleveland is a good place for a rookie. They have a solid PG in place, some decent inside players and no real established scorer. Dion Waiters is a talented player in a good situation and my guess is he’ll figure things out soon enough to make an impact. That makes him the player most likely player to pull off a surprise and beat out Davis.
3. Bradley Beal, Washington: Beal is similar to Waiters, in that both are young SGs with good ability who was taken high in the draft. That makes him a decent ROY candidate. He might be a better prospect long term prospect than Waiters, and certainly seems to be more mature, at least based on the reports I read as someone who isn’t an insider. The reason I have Waiters as more likely to win the ROY is his situation is better than Beal’s. Where Cleveland is stockpiling young talent and letting things sort out, Washington has cashed in some of that young talent for veterans who will be taking the lead and getting most of the shots. That situation could make opportunities harder to come by for Beal and suppress his scoring numbers until he establishes himself as a potent scorer at this level.
4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte: He is the 2^nd pick in the draft going to a roster that is pretty much devoid of NBA quality starters. That alone puts him in the top 5 ROY candidates in a weak draft. The thing that will hurt him in the ROY sweepstakes is his lack of an offensive game. At Kentucky, MKG was neither a high-volume scorer (4^th on his team in PPG) nor a particularly efficient scorer from inside or outside. His game was more of a super-supporting player. Winning the ROY is all about scoring and it’s hard to see MKG as a guy who’s going to come in and approach the 15-20 PPG ROY winners have traditionally posted. The lack of overall talent on the Bobcat roster and his status as the 2^nd overall pick mean he will get the minutes though and that gives him an edge on most rookies.
5. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto: He looks like he has a good future, but he’s also young and raw. He’s coming to a roster where it seems more likely he’ll be eased in and won’t be a huge part of the offense. Considering he plays center, his long term prospects make him more valuable than any rookie other than Davis. I doubt we’ll see him make much of an impact for at least another year, but he is one to watch.
6. Damian Lillard, Portland: I’m not a huge fan of Lillard. His college numbers suggest he’s a better fit as a scoring 3^rd guard than a point guard. I’m particularly wary of his ability to put up numbers as the PG to an established, highly-paid trio. But he has the potential to be a pretty good NBA scorer and he’s been handed the starting PG job. That should put him in contention for the award. He had a good summer league and has played well so far in the preseason, so it’s possible I’ve underestimated him. But I’ve seen fast starters before who flamed out when the league caught up to their limited talent. A good recent example being Randy Foye.  Lillard’s rookie teammate, center Meyers Leonard, is listed as the starting center on some depth charts. I doubt this will last long, as Leonard looks nowhere near ready to play at an NBA level. It does make him worth a mention here.
7. Harrison Barnes, Golden State: Barnes is another player I’m a little cool on, but as a one-time top overall prospect going to a team looking to bust out, he deserves a mention. Here’s my take on Barnes going into the draft is you care to see the logic behind my opinions. As for Barnes’ ROY chances, I think they’re pretty miniscule. He appears to be the starting SF going in and that’s a good thing for him. But Golden State isn’t like Cleveland or Charlotte. The Warriors won’t be happy with another season out of the playoffs and adding another piece in the 2013 lottery. This is a team with designs on the playoffs. I doubt they’ll leave Barnes on the court if the team struggles out of the gate and there are better SF options out there. Fellow Warrior rookie Draymond Green could also make an impact, simply because this team lacks players with the all-around game Green flashed at Michigan State. He might even get more PT than Barnes by the time the season is done because he’s a better fit on what is a pretty soft team.
8. Jeremy Lamb, Houston: The situation in Houston is good for a rookie. There should be a lot of minutes available at positions other than PG and Center. Lamb has some serious potential as a scorer and could light it up either as a starter at SG or off the bench. Lamb’s scoring prowess makes him the most likely rookie to make an impact in 2013. Houston’s roster situation means fellow rookies Terrence Jones, Royce White and Donatas Montejuanas will have opportunities and also merit a mention.
9. Thomas Robinson, Sacramento: As a top 5 pick, Robinson gets a mention. He’s not in the best situation. His skills mirror those of Kings center DeMarcus Cousins, so it’s likely Robinson will come off the bench. Sacramento is a hard team to get a read on, but there don’t appear to be many scoring opportunities available, so at best Robinson’s rookie role will be that of an energy player.
10. Andre Drummond, Detroit:  He’s put in some impressive minutes so far in the preseason. He was judged by experts to have a lot more talent than he showed during his only season at UConn. As a numbers guy, I would have to strain to find that potential. Considering all the drama that went on at UConn last year it’s possible his stats were suppressed a little. He is big and talented, so right now I’ll call him at best a lesser version of Valanciunas. As a rookie, he’s behind a good center in Monroe, so I don’t see him getting huge minutes nor do I see him piling up the numbers necessary to compete for the ROY.1
11. The rest: There will be opportunity in Orlando. Probably not immediately as the likes of Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Glen Davis and Hedu Turkoglu will continue to carry the offensive load. But this is a team in transition and if a fire sale develops, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O’Quinn and Moe Harkless could get serious PT. I like Nicholson the most of the trio and would even call him a sleeper for all-rookie honors should he work his way through a veteran logjam at PF on the Magic roster. Jared Sullinger should also have an impact. He’s in a great situation with Boston. Doc Rivers has a good history of working big rookies into useful rotation roles with veteran superstars.  Finally I’ll mention a few more players in 3 groups. The first is players I feel have good potential, but are unlikely to break through as rookies because of a crowded roster. Those are Milwaukee’s John Henson, Denver’s Evan Fournier, Dallas’ Jae Crowder and Portland’s Will Barton. I do like the long term potential of all 4. Then there are the players who were drafted in round one and are in a good situation as far as opportunity goes, but come up short as prospects. That includes Cleveland’s Tyler Zeller, Toronto’s Terrence Ross, New Orleans’ Austin Rivers and Atlanta’s John Jenkins. The last group is OKC’s Perry Jones III, Chicago’s Marquis Teague and Denver’s Quincy Miller. Three players who were highly-touted coming out of high school who failed to live up to expectations. All 3 go into good situations. They’re going to great teams where they can sit and learn without the pressure of having to perform immediately. Finally the undrafted player to watch is John Shurna. He’s on the Knicks’ preseason roster, which is a good place since that’s where undrafted Jeremy Lin busted out last year. Shurna is a first round talent and could have a positive impact if he gets in the right situation.

In grading the MVP candidates for 2013, I look first for players who are the best of the best. I’m talking about the elite, the superstars, etc. Next I look at team situations. If a team doesn’t win the top seed or at last exceed expectations, none of the players on that team are likely to win the MVP.

Players are listed in order of what I feel their chances are going into the season. I mention a lot of players here. Just keep in mind that anyone listed below the top 3 should be considered a long shot. Below the top 7, a crazy long shot.

1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City: Oklahoma City looks ready to emerge as the league’s best team. They won the West last year and are young enough that significant improvement can be expected. I feel this group, more than any other, has the potential to roll through the regular season with a win total in the high 60s. If that happens, Kevin Durant will walk away with his first MVP.
2. LeBron James, Miami: Want to know how often a player on the reigning champion has won the MVP since Wilt did it 1968? Only 6 times in 44 seasons. The last one was Jordan in ’97. Jordan also accomplished this in ’92. The others were Magic ’89, Bird ’85, Walton ’78 and Kareem ’72. LeBron is the best player in the game at the zenith of his career. That’s usually an MVP favorite. I have him behind Durant because Miami has been a disappointing regular season team during the Superfriends era and because defending champs just haven’t won that often. For whatever reason LeBron’s Heat haven’t been the type of team that’s going to blow the drawers off the league and approach 70 wins.  That could certainly change this year, with the pressure of winning a title gone. I just think it’s more likely they’re a mild disappointment and reach a win total around 60 again, while winning the East’s top seed. Combined with another typical LeBron season, that could be enough to get LeBron his 4^th MVP.
3. Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers: The 2013 season would seem to be Kobe’s last best chance at winning a 2^nd MVP. He has a great supporting cast in place. There’s a smart veteran PG, the best center in the league and a strong #2. Mike Brown had a solid record of racking up high win totals and top seeds while coaching a talented roster in Cleveland. It isn’t a reach at all to think the Lakers will post the best record in the league. The thing with Kobe is even in his prime he was rarely considered the league’s best player. He’s 34 and his stats have slid a bit from his peak of a few years ago. It’s also possible that the Lakers’ statistical distribution will look something like that of the Spurs, where no one player has impressive enough stats to compete for the MVP despite being the top seed. He is in the best situation to win the MVP he’s seen in years. Added incentive will be that Shaq only won 1 MVP. Snagging another would give Kobe that much more ammunition in their personal feud.
4. Carmelo Anthony, New York: After a year where he took some heat for his role in getting a coach fired and criticized the contract of a departing teammate, ‘Melo really needs a “shut up and deliver” type of season. He is a better player than most give him credit for, if something short of a superstar. What he has going for him is he’s in a great situation. The Knicks have enough talent that 60 wins and a top seed is possible if everything goes right. Like Kobe, Carmelo has a supporting cast that includes a smart veteran PG, a defensive monster in the middle and a strong #2. In addition the Knicks have a nice group of grinders and gunners who make things easier for a star. Playing in New York won’t hurt his cause either.
5. Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia: The Sixers are another talented Eastern team that’s ready for big improvement and lurking should the Heat fade a little. Bynum is the new addition most likely to reap the credit should his team win a top seed. Bynum is still improving and only turns 25 at the start of the season. He would probably need to up his PPG to 20+, which is something he seems capable of doing.
6. Dwight Howard, LA Lakers: Kobe is the leader of the Lakers and is likely to reap most of the hardware should the Lakers reach the top seed. If Kobe has some struggles, but the team keeps winning, the narrative could switch to Howard as the top Laker MVP candidate. One thing both Bynum and Howard are fighting is inside players rarely win the MVP any more. This is a seismic shift that began in 1984. Before that 25 of the 28 MVP awards went to centers. Beginning with Larry Bird’s first MVP in 1984, only 9 of the subsequent 29 MVPs have gone to inside players. Only 3 of those have gone to true centers, with David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal winning one apiece.  While players like Bynum and Howard are extremely valuable, neither fits the mold of a typical MVP in the modern NBA.
7. 7. Chris Paul, LA Clippers: Bob Cousy and Oscar Robertson were the only 2 PGs to score an MVP before Magic won his 3. In the new millennium, PGs have won 4 MVPs, so we might be seeing something of a trend here. Paul is the best pure PG in the game. He’s leading a good young team that has championship aspirations. I have my doubts about the Clippers being much more than a lower seed, which is why Paul is down at #7. Should the Clippers challenge for a top seed, Paul has a chance to win his first MVP.
8. 8. Kevin Love, Minnesota: Love is one of the most productive players in the league. He’ll be 24 this year, so he can be expected to improve. A couple of factors put Love up against it though. The Timberwolves remain a mess of a franchise that will struggle to make the playoffs and he’s out for the first month or so with a hand injury. Should Love return and lead Minnesota to 50 wins, while leading the league in both scoring and rebounding—he was top 5 in both last year—he’ll be in the discussion.
9. 9. Andre Iguodala, Denver Nuggets: Now we’re getting into the longest shots. Why Iguodala? The biggest reason is I feel the Nuggets are a sleeper in the West. I love the talent on this team and feel they’ll be running out front with the Thunder and Lakers for most of the year. Iguodala is the new guy on the roster who seems likely to get any credit that would come with the Nuggets shocking the world and winning the West.
10. The Field: A lot of scenarios to consider here. The first is a 2^nd banana taking over when the star is injured or falters. I already mentioned Howard as such a candidate, but Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade and Blake Griffin come to mind as players who could move into the forefront should the star struggle. Then there are the real long shot candidates. Think Steve Nash going into the ’05 season. This would have to be a player who emerges as a difference maker on a team that shocks league by taking the top seed. Iguodala is the most obvious example as a candidate in such a scenario. Others include Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Stephen Curry, Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo. I also have to mention the Spurs. They have won consecutive top seeds, but their big 3 have been so even that none has stood out as a candidate. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginoboli all deserve a mention. San Antonio should be back as a regular season force again this year, so their stars have to be considered. Finally I’ll toss out the remote possibility that rookies Anthony Davis or Jonas Valanciunas step right in and impact the league in such a way that the voters will have no choice but to add one of the two to Wilt Chamberlain and Wes Unseld’s exclusive club of rookie MVP winners. But I’m really reaching for candidates now. The 2013 MVP award is almost certainly going to come down to Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. The player with the edge will be the one with great stats and is on the team with the best record. Going in I give the edge to Durant.

-Older teams will struggle in the compressed schedule with fewer days off but youth will abide

-Teams that have played together before could possibly hit the ground running, while teams with lots of new parts might struggle

-Depth is really important

Before turning to 2011-12 we should test how true all of the above statements actually were back in 1998-99.  Sure, most of these things are true in the abstract but can we attribute the happenings of 1998-99 directly to older teams/thin teams/new teammates struggling?  I’m not so sure.  Let’s look at some of teams that fell or rose dramatically in the fateful 1998-99 season and see why the jump/dip happened:

-Orlando Magic: The Magic missed the playoffs in 1997-98 at 41-41 but jumped out to an nice 33-17 record thanks to a deep team and great coach Chuck Daly, who realized how good Darrell Armstrong was and gave a lot of run to players who were untested rookies (Michael Doleac and Matt Harpring) or previously taken for granted role players (Armstrong, Bo Outlaw, Derek Strong).  It wasn’t an offensive gem but the great depth and coaching created a boring but effective slow-paced defensive unit.  Indeed, the depth allowed defense to remain effective even when the scorers Hardaway and Nick Anderson left the floor.

-Philadelphia 76ers: Philly was an anemic 31-51 in Larry Brown’s first season in 1997-98.  Year Two the Sixers were much improved at 28-22.  Brown had the same formula as Daly in Orlando, ride the scorer in a slow-down offense (in this case Allen Iverson) and make sure everyone else really defended well.  Brown gets bonus points for seeing how effective Matt Geiger, Theo Ratliff, and Eric Snow could be.

-New York Knicks: There is a common mythology that the Knicks were surprisingly bad in 1998-99 in the regular season and not up to usual snuff.  Remember, though, that the 1997-98 also eked into the playoffs at 43-39 and that the 27-23 record in 1998-99 wasn’t far off that performance level.  Sure, the Knicks struggled with new personnel but Jeff Van Gundy had to deal with a few issues: (1) Patrick Ewing became very old all of a sudden in 1998-99 and (2) Van Gundy took a while to warm up to newcomer Marcus Camby, who had replaced the beloved tough guy Charles Oakley.  Had this been a regular 82-game season, the Knicks probably would’ve played Camby more and hit their stride before the playoffs and looked like a pretty solid team.

-Chicago Bulls: The Bulls fell apart because Michael Jordan retired and Scottie Pippen left town and the Bulls did little to replace them.  Nothing too complicated there.

-New Jersey Nets: The Nets were the trendy breakout team after John Calipari accumulated young talent (Keith Van Horn, Kerry Kittles, and Sam Cassell) and had a respectable playoff showing in 1997-98.  The Nets, however, weren’t nearly as talented as some thought.  Keith Van Horn was good but people thought he was going to be the player that Dirk Nowitzki ultimately became.  Sam Cassell, the true glue of the team, was also injured early.  Cassel’s injury, Calipari’s emotional implosion, and outsized expectations nuked the team’s hopes pretty early.

-Seattle SuperSonics: Seattle was a serious contender from 1992-93 to 1997-98 but fell to 25-25 after they lost coach George Karl (he was replaced by Paul Westphal).  Without Karl (and with Westphal) the defense totally fell apart (dropping from 10th in defense in 1997-98 to 26th in 1998-99).  Also, Vin Baker came back from the work stoppage way overweight and never really was a good player again.

There were plenty of old teams that had nice seasons.  Utah (with oldsters John Stockton, Jeff Hornacek, and Karl Malone) was its usual dominant self (37-13) and Houston (old Hakeem Olajuwon, Scottie Pippen, and Charles Barkley) actually improved from the struggles the previous season.  Both Utah and Houston lost in the playoffs but to teams that were not just younger but better on talent (Utah beat a great Sacramento team and then lost to a deep and talented Jail Blazer squad, while Houston lost to Kobe and Shaq).

It seems that what mattered in 1998-99 was not necessarily age and depth (though both were issues) but quality of coaching.  Great Coaches like Daly and Brown hit the ground running and adjusted to the new circumstances to make sure their systems (particularly defensively) were still effective.  Middling coaches like Westphal and Calipari were less prepared.  So when we look back, coaches were a huge difference maker and may yet be so this year.  Obviously, this isn’t a 100% rule for the future but favoring teams with good coaches is a good idea.  This is complicated by the fact that people don’t always agree who the “good” coaches are.  Is Erik Spoelstra a good coach?  I think so but he doesn’t quite fit into the Daly/Larry Brown category of clear Hall of Famers right now.  Of coaches on the clear Hall of Fame path still coaching, George Karl’s presence in Denver could very well be an advantage during this crazy season.  On the other hand, Mike Brown might be a good coach but he is walking into a real tight spot.

With all this in mind, let’s leave 1998-99 and return to the present with our NBA predictions for the current season:

Eastern Conference

1.    Miami Heat: Still the class of the conference.  Depth is still an issue here but when you have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, you are going to be good.  The Finals loss hurt but this team was excellent and the Big Three had great years.  They will be the class of the conference and seem poised to snatch up some of the players returning from China around playoff time to bolster the roster.  I expect a title.

2.    Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are for real and should waltz to a division title.  They are now also Miami’s only viable rival right now in the East.  They have some good players but they rely heavily on Derrick Rose and any slump or even minor injury would really hurt their chances to catch Miami for home court.  Getting Rip Hamilton will improve the sorry two-guard slot but remember that Hamilton is 33 and is not a cure all.  Backcourt depth is also still an issue.

3.    Boston Celtics: The title window is probably closed now but I thought it was closed two years ago, and they very nearly won it all.  The core is old but they generally come out of the gate very hot and have enough talent to take the East again.  Kevin Garnett may be 35 but he was still very good last year and should have another year or two left.  They look vulnerable to an early knock out in the playoffs (very similar to the 1998-99 Rockets) if they run into an explosive young team in the first round of the playoffs.

4.    Orlando Magic: There are no serious contenders after the Bulls and Heat in the East and here we just have a bunch of interchangeable teams.  We don’t know if Dwight Howard will be traded but, if not, he should be enough for a pro-rated 50-win season and the playoffs.  Obviously, this could change but we will assume he stays for now and that the Magic agitate for a sign-and-trade after the season (especially now that Brook Lopez is hurt).

5.    Atlanta Hawks: I expect the Hawks to fall a little bit.  Joe Johnson is older, Jamal Crawford is gone (and replaced by Tracy McGrady) and the team was worse than their overall record indicated.  Despite all that, the East is too weak for us to think that a front court of Al Horford and Josh Smith won’t be good enough to be near the top of the lower tier playoff teams.  Even so, I concede that you could randomly shuffle teams 5 through 9 in the East and come out with just as likely a playoff seeding scenario.

6.    New York Knicks: I’m not nearly as high on the Knicks as some people but when you start with Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler, you have a pretty good team and enough talent to compete with other so so teams like Milwaukee, Philly, and Indiana.  New York should come out strong but the backcourt is needs a serious upgrade.

7.    Philadelphia 76ers: Doug Collins has his weaknesses as a coach but his teams usually defend and are prepared.  This is a good recipe for a lockout season.  They are on par with the Knicks and could jump them in the standings too.  They should probably use their front court glut (Andre Iguodala or Thaddeus Young) to help with the hole at two guard (I’m not sold on Evan Turner as a two).

8.    Indiana Pacers: They have amassed cap room and some good young players but the talent is not exactly overwhelming.  Danny Granger is a star but Tyler Hansbrough, Darren Collison, Roy Hibbert, and Paul George?  Good but not great.  Similarly, I like the David West and Geroge Hill deals as value signings.  Still, having a ton of pretty good players who all play the same position is not the same as having a huge glut of talent.  In addition, I’m not convinced that Frank Vogel qualifies as the great coach that will parlay this group into a hot start needed to get home court in the first round of the playoffs.

9.    Milwaukee Bucks: Defense may help win titles but if you can’t frigging score at all, you will struggle.  The Bucks were the worst offensive team in the NBA last year and a third-ranked defense couldn’t overcome that problem.  I like Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson is decent but neither is a great scorer or much of an improvement over John Salmons.  Unless Brandon Jennings blossoms into a scorer the Bucks likely won’t put up enough points to get in the playoffs.

10.    Washington Wizards: We now reach the leg of the East that probably won’t even contend for a playoff slot.  Despite a ton of talent last year, the Wiz looked clueless in all facets of the game last year.  John Wall is only 21 and will continue to develop.  The front court potential of Jan Vesley, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee may make us drool but the fact is that they are inconsistent and make bad decisions.  Washington will continue to try to develop this group but also be aware that if Blatche or McGee have high perceived, they may want to pull the trigger on a deal to add some more talent in the backcourt, as the frontcourt is crowded and Blatche and McGee could go from valuable to worthless really quickly.

11.    Detroit Pistons: Not a terrible roster but Joe Dumars has been too impressed with his own finds.  You can’t pay every single pretty good player you have, especially if they all play the same position.  Extending Tayshaun Prince and Jonas Jerebko, individually, makes some sense…but extending them both?  Now they have those two and Charlie Villaneuva, as well as Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon at guard.  This is recipe for mediocrity unless someone can get flipped for a positional need.  At least Lawrence Frank will give them some long needed stability at coach.

12.    New Jersey Nets: This is a team in limbo.  Presumably Deron Williams will keep them quasi-competitive but the injury to Brook Lopez will hurt and they only exist right now to get ready for Brooklyn in 2012-13.  If they somehow nab Howard, they will be a playoff team now but it hasn’t happened yet and, instead, the projection is much more pedestrian.  In any case, ownership is willing to spend so something will happen during the season or summer to make 2012-13 more fun.

13.    Toronto Raptors: Putting all the eggs in the Andrea Bragnani basket hasn’t worked so far.  Nor was Toronto’s refusal to dump Jay Triano, despite years of awful defense.  Dwane Casey at coach should at least make the defense better but the personnel is not conducive to defense under best of circumstances.  Without much young talent (first rounder Jonas Valanciunas is still in Europe), the Raps’ should have two goals: (1) continue to see if Bargnani and Ed Davis can be key members of the next good Raptor team or pump up their value to trade for more young talent and (2) install a bona fide defensive system.

14.    Cleveland Cavaliers: A year has passed since LeBron blew town and the Cavs have succeeded in finding a few potentially good young rookies in Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson.  Dan Gilbert has also succeeded in whining so much that people actually like LeBron better than him, a remarkable feat considering how douchey James acted in the summer of 2010.  But all will be forgotten if Gilbert preserves cap room and develops the rookies.  In either event, this will not be a good team and another high draft pick beckons.

15.    Charlotte Bobcats: The most interesting players here are Tyrus Thomas, Bismack Biyomobo and Gerald Henderson.  Expect some serious boredom and losses in 2011-12.

Western Conference

1.    Oklahoma City Thunder: I hate to pick the trendy team as the best in conference but OKC is young and talented and the West is pretty wide open right now.  The Thunder have some issues to deal with (improving defense) and developing the youngsters but they have as much talent as anyone and with a small trade tweak could be quite good.  Another note, many have been wondering if James Harden will breakout as a scorer this year and  turn the team into a dynasty.  Harden is a very solid all around player but you don’t often see a two-guard score much when coupled with a shoot-first point like Russell Westbrook, especially after Kevin Durant takes must of the shots to begin with.  Rather, Harden’s minutes will get more minutes and continue to improve but he will be a nice all-around cog and not a 20+ ppg guy this year unless shots are dramatically reallocated.  This doesn’t mean that Harden can’t help the team improve but he is and will be a two-guard who can be effective without scoring too much.

2.    Dallas Mavericks: The 2010-11 Mavs were not the best Maverick team of the last decade but they were good and had the right timing.  This timing was vital since the window is probably now closed for them.  The top four players in minutes played last year (Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion) are all at least 33 years old and the next two players in minutes (Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea) are gone.  Despite all this, The Mavs are well-coached and a durable lot.  They should have a solid regular season and will fight with fellow oldsters the Spurs for the division.  I suspect that things will be tough by playoff team but they are good as anyone in the regular season.

3.    Los Angeles Clippers: This is obviously the most fun team in the NBA right now with Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan.  The best point in basketball, as will Griffin’s continued development, will help this team make a huge imporvement.  I’m less than enthused about Vinny Del Negro at coach.  He isn’t a bad coach per se but he has made curious decision in both Chicago and L.A. that make me wonder if he can handle prosperity.  Still, the talent coupled with the lack of other viable options in the Pacific should get the Clipps the division title.

4.    Denver Nuggets: When we mentioned coaching as a key factor during the last lockout, George Karl comes to mind.  He is precisely the type to have a deep and well-prepared team in a helter skelter lockout season.  Even without some good players from last year (J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Wilson Chandler), the Nuggets have plenty of depth at the point (Ty Lawson and the always underrated Andre Miller) plus Nene up front.  This is recipe for a good team in the regular seasons (and possibly the playoffs too if they get the right match ups).

5.    San Antonio Spurs: A mixed season last year for the Spurs.  They showed they were still good and competitive but blew one final shot at a title, losing to a younger and more athletic Memphis team.  Despite the age of the core, there is one thing to be put in perspective:  Tim Duncan had the worst year of his career and still put up a PER of 21.9.  TD is not young but good big men have a long shelf life and, assuming health, the Spurs with Duncan and Manu Ginobili will be in the thick of the race to come out of the West.

6.    Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers are too good to totally collapse but they are most definitely on the decline side.  Kobe Bryant was actually as good as always but his odometer is running high, Lamar Odom is gone (for nothing in return), and they have a new coach with a totally new system.  This sounds like all the makings of a disappointing season.  The Lakers can contend with most teams in the West but unless they make some moves (Dwight Howard?), a quick playoff exit is coming.

7.    Memphis Grizzlies: There is a lot to like in Memphis with the young talent but I’m skeptical of a team that relies heavily on Zach Randolph.  Randolph has been awesome his last two years with the Grizz but he is turning 30 and has never put together two really good seasons in row before, let alone three (PERs of 21.2 and 22.6 respectively the last two years).  Another key that Memphis may not be able to maintain is the defense, which went from awful to pretty good, thanks to Tony Allen (who was benched early but was surprisingly effective later on).  The Grizz are a playoff-level but I think they will stay in neutral, as opposed to making the jump to bona fide contender.

8.    Portland Trailblazers: The year has started out very poorly ,as Brandon Roy is now officially done as a player and Greg Oden is not looking ready any time soon either.  Still, Blazers are well-coached and execute their slow-paced offense effectively and have respectable talent (LaMarcus Aldrdige, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Wes Matthews, and Nicolas Batum). They probably will never have the contender run that seemed to beckon a few years ago but a lower seeded playoff appearances will have to do for now.

9.    Houston Rockets: Houston is all set with cap room and support players to bring in a star to morph into a good team.  Alas, finding that star has been elusive.  An attempt to bring in Pau Gasol was shot down by the NBA, so now the Rockets will have to stick to a Kevin Martin-based offense and all sorts of solid players like Luis Scola, Sam Dalembert and Kyle Lowry.  The Rockets will be around the playoff periphery but will follow just short.  The real action will be after the season, when the Rockets try to use their cap room to get the coveted front court star they haven’t had since Yao Ming retired.

10.    Phoenix Suns: The future is seriously bleak.  Ownership has made some really crappy signing decisions and the only move that now makes sense is trading Steve Nash.  If Phoenix keeps him, they will still be around .500.  There really is no reason to keep Nash now but ownership seems totally clueless how to value and convert assets, so Nash may rot in Phoenix in mediocrity for another season.

11.    Utah Jazz: The Jazz have done a nice job of flipping vets for prospects and they still have some talent to be decent right now.  The best veterans Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap are enough to go for a playoff run but I expect Utah will trade at least some of them to add to the core and reduce salary cap and to give minutes to prospects like Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward.

12.    Minnesota Timberwolves: Team slogan:  “Not as bad a team as one would think but still not good.”   The Wolves had the number one pace in the NBA last year but didn’t defend or score well.  With Rick Adelman now in town, they will probably play a pace that suits their talent (pounding with big frontcourt players).  All eyes will be in Ricky Rubio, whom David Kahn has basically leveraged his entire tenure on.  Rubio is a serious question mark but Adelman has done a great job of developing young points almost everywhere he’s been.  This doesn’t guarantee success for Rubio but provides an environment for him to bloom if he does ultimately have the skills.

13.    New Orleans Hornets: New Orleans is not without talent either but the flux with ownership will probably make the team underperform relative to ability.  The only player who has any chance of being a key member of the team in two years is Eric Gordon and all other good players will probably be auctioned off for draft picks and youngsters.  If you think owners complained about the Chris Paul trade, imagine how they’ll feel when the NBA decides where to send Chris Kaman and/or Emeka Okafor.  Conspiracy theories will be abound.

14.    Golden State Warriors: Mark Jackson wants to install a defensive system.  Fine but the personnel doesn’t really suit that: David Lee, Monta Ellis, and Steph Curry don’t guard anyone.  Jackson will have to overcome the rookie coach learning curve, realize that the team doesn’t fit his vision of playing style, and reset the roster to fit what he wants from his team.  Jackson might do this ultimately but they will rack up losses now.

15.    Sacramento Kings: There is some young talent here but the talent here didn’t really play well last year.  The Kings were a bad defensive team and a worst offensive team.  Even if Tyreke Evans bounces back and DeMarcus Cousins develops, there is no indication that this will resolve the lack of depth and bad defense.

Predictions

Conference Finals: Heat over Bulls and Thunder over Mavericks

Finals: Heat over Thunder

MVP:  LeBron James

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard

Rookie of the Year:  Kyrie Irving

NBA First Team:  Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Dwight Howard

Coach of the Year:  Vinny Del Negro (on improvement not necessarily merit)

Eastern Conference

1.    Miami Heat: Sure there could be growing pains getting the stars to jell but they are a good defensive team and they are too talented to struggle for long.

2.    Orlando Magic: Miami’s biggest threat in the East.  If they can get scoring from the wings, they could be in the Finals.

3.    Boston Celtics: Still really dangerous but you can’t fight age forever.  Doc Rivers will really have to monitor minutes again to be ready for April.

4.    Chicago Bulls: Big drop off in talent here after the top three.  There is talent here but shooting is still an issue.  The weak division should guarantee a top four seed.

5.    Atlanta Hawks: Hated their off-season moves and they could feel a squeeze when Al Horford’s contract comes up but they still can make the second round for now.

6.    Milwaukee Bucks: They are due for some regression because of the loss of Luke Ridnour and the fact that John Salmons was playing over his head.  Still, a playoff team though.

7.    Philadelphia 76ers: Of the bottom feeders, the Sixers should get the biggest improvement because Doug Collins always improves team defense and Philly has a ton of room for improvement in that area.  Collins is sure to grate on the roster eventually but his teams usually improve quickly.

8.    New York Knicks: Finally, a return to the playoffs.  The team will still be weak but 40 wins and quasi-positive feelings are coming.  Getting Melo would bump them up slightly.

(Non-playoff teams)

9.    Indiana Pacers: Just good enough to not get a good draft pick.

10.  Charlotte Bobcats: The effort was great last year but the offense was not great and will probably get worse.

11.  Washington Wizards: They do have a chance at making the playoffs but the larger goals are developing John Wall and Andray Blatche and dumping Gilbert Arenas.  Playoffs are secondary.

12.    New Jersey Nets: Like the Wiz, they need to develop Derrick Favors and learn how to defend.  Side goal is to find a star player to trade/sign.

13.    Toronto Raptors: Worst defensive team in the NBA has lost its best player for nothing and replaced him with Linas Kleiza.  They have to start over.

14.    Detroit Pistons: Not just bad…rudderless.  The plan has been flawed for a while here.  The new plan should be to get a top pick and somehow trade Rip Hamilton.

15.     Cleveland Cavaliers: Just will be a tough year.  Salary issues are not bad here but they had no Plan B after LeBron.  Can’t blame them for putting all eggs in the LBJ basket but an ugly 2010-11 season is the inevitable result of losing James.

Western Conference

1.    Los Angeles Lakers: Still the class of the conference, yet I am not convinced they are coming out of the West.  I think it is just as likely that the another team other than the Lakers goes to the Finals.  L.A. is not young and winning three in a row is difficult.  Still, it’s hard to identify the actual team that will beat them.  Someone might emerge but that team is not apparent right now.

2.    San Antonio Spurs: They are definitely older but Tim Duncan is still going strong and is relatively young for a great big man.  With all the talk of Manu Ginobili’s health issues the real killer last year was Tony Parker, who missed almost 30 games.  If they can be a little healthier, they have a shot to make one last run.

3.    Utah Jazz: OKC has more talent but the Jazz are still deep and tend to thrive when there is a potential power vacuum.

4.    Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder will make another jump this year.  It won’t be as big as some people think but the second round of the playoffs is very possible.

5.    Portland Trail Blazers: Portland still needs one more star but they are deep and effective on offense and defense.  Bonus points if Greg Oden comes back healthy.

6.    Dallas Mavericks: Dallas could be better than a six seed.  Whether you are an optimist or pessimist on the Mavs, however, they do not seem to be a title contender under any realistic scenario.  They are actually older then many other teams that are considered too old.

7.    Houston Rockets: In theory, they should be better with Yao Ming back but, even so, the conference is deep enough that a few game improvement might not even register on the radar.

8.    New Orleans Hornets: While Chris Paul’s free agent status looms over the franchise, they are very talented and I don’t see Paul going anywhere quite yet.  The core talent is good enough that they could win 50 games but the flux is enough for me to project them downward.

(Non-playoff teams)

9.    Denver Nuggets: Who really knows?  If they stay together, the Nuggets could be anywhere from 2 to 8 in the West.  It seems most likely, however, that Carmelo Anthony will be gone and the total chaos will keep them from the playoffs.

10.    Phoenix Suns: Without Amare Stoudemire, the party is over for now.

11.    Los Angeles Clippers: There is talent here but forces (new coach, Clipper Karma, injury issues) will limit them.

12.    Golden State Warriors: The Warriors look like they will keep the run and gun system for now.  There is talent but new management will have to turn this into a competent  franchise for the first time in  15-20 years.

13.    Memphis Grizzlies: If I could bet on one team regressing from last year other than Cleveland this is it.  The Grizz weren’t quite as good as they looked last year and relying on Zach Randolph to repeat his great season is not a great idea.

14.    Sacramento Kings: Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins will be fun to watch but the team neither scores nor defends particularly well.  Paul Westphal should consider the season a success if Evans and Cousins progress.

15.    Minnesota Timberwolves: The worst of the West and possibly the NBA.  David Kahn’s plan is quite slow developing and not readily apparent.

Conference Finals

Heat over Magic

Lakers over Jazz

NBA Finals

Heat over Lakers

MVP:  LeBron James, Miami

Rookie of the Year:  Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

Coach of the Year:  Scotty Brooks, Oklahoma City Thunder

1.    Los Angeles Lakers:    The Lakers are the favorites to come out of the West again this year, as they were last year.  The success here isn’t a mystery.  The team has few weaknesses (defending quick point guards is the only one that comes to mind) and this is a team that excels offensively and defensively.  Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the key to this team but Pau Gasol is also an indispensable piece too.  Assuming they are healthy, there is no reason the Lakers won’t make the Finals again.  The only major differences between this team and last year’s is the effective trade of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest and the potential of having Andrew Bynum healthy for the whole season. 

The Ariza/Artest trade is overblown.  Artest is probably still a better player than Ariza but the difference is overstated.  Artest is definitely the better scorer but his high volume shooting might actually not be a better fit for the Lakers.  Further, Ariza defends quicker players better than Artest at this point.  The caveat here is that Artest can still bang and he is a nice match up defensively for LeBron James, something that the Lakers were missing.  As for Bynum, his health is only gravy for the Lakers.  If he continues to develop the Lakers, even now, have some room for improvement. 

Is there anything bad going on here?  Not really.  The only even quasi-bad item to note is that Kobe, as great as he is, has been declining slightly the last few years.  The only part of his game where this might be evident is in his ability to get to the line.  Bryant had his lowest free throw rate since 2002-03.  The rate is still quite good but off from the peak of the mid-2000s.  This means nothing for now but is something worth tracking over the next few seasons. 

As another side note, the 2008-09 Lakers were quite good from an historical perspective.  The 2008-09 team tied the 1986-87 team for the third most wins (65) in franchise history.  Here’s how the team scored on SRS rating: 

1.    1971-72 Lakers, 11.65 (69-13)

2.    1999-00 Lakers, 8.41 (67-15)

3.    1986-87 Lakers, 8.32 (65-17)

4.    1972-73 Lakers, 8.18 (60-22)

5.    2007-08 Lakers, 7.34 (57-25)

6.    2001-02 Lakers, 7.15 (58-24)

7.    2008-09 Lakers, 7.11 (65-17)

8.    1997-98 Lakers, 6.88 (61-21)

9.    1985-86 Lakers, 6.84 (62-20)

10.  1989-90 Lakers, 6.74 (63-19) 

So, the 2008-09 Lakers don’t register as the best team ever but they are in the conversation with the Wilt/West teams, the Showtime Lakers, and the Kobe/Shaq Lakers.  Interestingly, the 2008-09 team didn’t score as well as the 2007-08 team and neither team hit the heights of the best of the other Laker dynasties. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Gary Payton 2003-04: 14.6 ppg, .471 FG%, 4.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 17.3 PER

-SG, Kobe Bryant 2005-06: 35.4 ppg, .450 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 28.0 PER

-SF, Lamar Odom 2005-06: 13.3 ppg, .481 FG%, 8.2 rpg, 5.0 apg, 17.0 PER

-PF, Pau Gasol 2008-09: 18.9 ppg, .567 FG%, 9.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 22.2 PER

-C, Shaquille O’Neal 1999-00: 29.7 ppg, .574 FG%, 13.6 rpg, 3.8 apg, 30.6 PER 

2.    Phoenix Suns:    After three straight years of decline, the Suns have kind of righted the ship.  They’ve come to terms with the fact that a Steve Nash/Amare Stoudemire team is supposed to run and defense and half court offense don’t have to be a focus but that they only need to be acceptable.  Indeed, the whole Shaquille O’Neal excursion made the Suns actually worse defensively than they were in the Mike D’Antoni years (in fact, the D’Antoni teams were decent defensively).  When Alvin Gentry came in and Shaq was sent out, the Suns returned to running but the defense declined even further (26th in the NBA) and the Suns ended up wasting nearly two years of Nash’s prime farting around with a half court offense. 

Now, the Suns are back to the old ways but time has not stood still in the meantime.  The core is still there for a solid team but no longer is this a title team.  Nash is a little older and Stoudemire struggled with eye injuries and a very unsettled contract situation.  Amare has a $17 million option for next year (which he is likely to exercise) and the Suns don’t seem to trust him enough to give a big extension because of the injuries he has had, the money he’s demanding, and the fact that the Suns have been careful with cash the last few years.  Indeed, I think the Suns gave Nash an extension at a time when he was still under contract for a few years because he’s a decent bet to stay good, the fans love him, and the goodwill will help management when Amare is ultimately traded or let go as a free agent. 

If Amare remains, having him along with Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, and Leandrinho Barbosa gives the Suns a formidable running team.  They never will be able to stop any of the really good teams but will have a vibe like some of the old Don Nelson teams in Golden State and Dallas, where they can beat anyone if everything breaks right for their offense.  Expect the Phoenix to be a seed somewhere between 5 and 8 seed with an entertaining but decisive first round loss. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Steve Nash 2006-07: 18.6 ppg, .532 FG%, 3.5 rpg, 11.6 apg, 23.8 PER

-SG, Leandro Barbosa 2008-09: 14.2 ppg, .482 FG%, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 19.4 PER

-SF, Boris Diaw 2005-06: 13.3 ppg, .526 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 6.2 apg, 17.3 PER

-PF, Shawn Marion 2005-06: 21.8 ppg, .525 FG%, 11.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 23.6 PER
-C, Amare Stoudemire 2007-08: 25.2 ppg, .590 FG%, 9.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 27.6 PER 

3.    Los Angeles Clippers:    The Clipps were as terrible as any team last year.  The year started out with Elton Brand spurning the Clipps to go East and leaving new signee Baron Davis without his expected running mate.  Davis’ signing was dubious even if the Clipps had re-signed Brand and Brand was still great.  Without Brand, Davis had a career worst season, shooting poorly and just generally looking like a bust.  On top of that, Chris Kaman was injured and the Clipps somehow decided that Zach Randolph would work well as a Bizarro Elton Brand.  This all worked about as well as one would think and the Clipps basically folded on the season (4-20 the last month of the season) and earned enough ping pong balls to get the Blake Griffin, the prize of the draft.  

Now, the Clipps look a little better.  Eric Gordon and Marcus Camby both played well and Kaman should be healthy and Davis might seem more motivated.  Add in Griffin and you might have a playoff team.  Well not quite, particularly since Griffin broke his knee/leg and will miss six weeks.  But even with a healthy Griffin this team had a long way to go, as they pulled of the remarkable feat of being the worst offensive team in the NBA and almost the worst defensive team too last season.  We expect some improvement but unless the vets (Davis) return to form and Griffin ends up being an instant star, improvement will be measured in being a competitive team, if not an above .500 team. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Sam Cassell 2005-06: 17.2 ppg, .443 FG%, 3.7 rpg, 6.3 apg, 18.5 PER

-SG, Derek Anderson 1999-00: 16.9 ppg, .438 FG%, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 16.9 PER

-SF, Lamar Odom 2000-01: 17.2 ppg, .460 FG%, 7.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 18.9 PER

-PF, Elton Brand 2005-06: 24.7 ppg, .527 FG%, 10.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 26.5 PER

-C, Chris Kaman 2007-08: 15.7 ppg, .483 FG%, 12.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 17.5 PER 

4.    Golden State Warriors:    We’ve all seen this show before.  The formula is pretty clear: moderately talented offensive team (9th in the NBA) + not so great defense (28th in the NBA) + apathetic Don Nelson = lottery.  Somehow, Nellie has wrested control of the organization again and burned some bridges in the process.  Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis are both unhappy in Golden State.  Neither of these developments are entirely the organization’s fault.  Jax was just given an inexplicable extension and should be thanking management, even if the team isn’t as good as he expected.  Ellis seems annoyed that the Warriors have given him a hard time about violating his newly minted contract too.  

Where Nellie has had problems is with his own commitment to the franchise.  After Robert Rowell forced out Chris Mullin and gave Nellie back more power than he has had since the 1990s, Nelson responded by talking more about how he could be retiring soon.   You hate to play amateur psychologist but such public pronouncements couldn’t have helped the team deal with Jackson and Ellis, even if their complaints are totally irrational.  Despite all this, there is some young talent in Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph.  To make this team work is a long term project and Nelson isn’t really in the place to be doing this.  This is not to say that older short-term coaches can’t work (Chuck Daly did great in New Jersey and Orlando as a short term fix) but Nellie hasn’t rallied the troops yet and this smells like another fold job, as we’ve seen a few times in the past with Nelson (think the 1989-90, 1992-93, and 1994-95 Warriors). 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Baron Davis 2006-07: 20.1 ppg, .439 FG%, 4.4 rpg, 8.1 apg, 21.0 PER

-SG, Jason Richardson 2005-06: 23.2 ppg, .446 FG%, 5.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 19.2 PER

-SF, Antawn Jamison 2002-03: 22.2 ppg, .470 FG%, 7.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 19.0 PER

-PF, Troy Murphy 2004-05: 15.4 ppg, .414 FG%, 10.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 16.8 PER

-C, Andris Biedrins 2007-08: 10.5 ppg, .626 FG%, 9.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 19.2 PER 

5.    Sacramento Kings:    Move along…not much to see here.  The Kings have known they had to rebuild for years.  The problem is the Kings have not rebuilt well.  They divested themselves of the old guard (Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic) without huge commitments when the players declined but starting over has proven difficult, as they have sunk to the bottom and just stayed there.  The Kings have gone through several coaches since forcing out Rick Adelman and have managed to give long-term deals to players who should be working on short-term deals (Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia, Mikki Moore).  This is not the kind of stability an organization needs when it’s trying to come up with a coherent plan. 

Now the team is trying to start over again with a team that could fit in quite well with the rebuilding squads of the 1980s and 1990s that featured Mitch Richmond and trinkets.  The current roster consists of one scorer like Richmond (Kevin Martin), the aforementioned long-term salary anchors in Udrih and Garcia, and a bunch of potentially decent young players (Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Tyreke Evans).  It’s not clear if any of these players constitutes a future building block but, hopefully, the Kings won’t be hung up on a style of play and will, instead, focus on developing the youngsters.  Whether the focus is right or not, however, this probably will be the worst team in the NBA in 2009-10. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Mike Bibby 2003-04: 18.4 ppg, .450 FG%, 3.4 rpg, 5.4 apg, 19.3 PER

-SG, Kevin Martin 2006-07: 20.2 ppg, .473 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 20.1 PER

-SF, Peja Stojakovic 2003-04: 24.2 ppg, .480 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 21.8 PER

-PF, Chris Webber 2000-01: 27.1 ppg, .481 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 24.7 PER

-C, Vlade Divac 1999-00: 12.3 ppg, .503 FG%, 8.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 18.0 PER

Defensively, the Blazers do have some room improve.  They were a decent 13th overall but one could certainly envision that a healthy and presumably improving Greg Oden might be able to positively effect that facet of the team.  This also seem like a good point to stop and see where Oden is in his development.  He was clearly more raw than other great centers were as rookies.  But Oden was only 21 and showed some promise in his rate stats.  So, let’s see what the other centers were doing at a similar age:

*rookies seasons above are listed in bold 

Prior to the mid-2000s, having a 21-year old center was quite rare.  This was a function of the college system (Ewing, Sampson, Olajuwon, and Robinson all hung around college until after age-22), with the notable exceptions of Shaq and a few others.  This decade, however, there is plenty of basis to compare Oden.  In fact we have quite a few centers who have been better than Oden at age.  Oden’s numbers are nice but not quite at the level of Bynum, Biedrins, and, of course, Howard.  Still, Oden was nearly as good and this was his rookie year, while his contemporaries had been in the pros for a few years before turning age-21.  So, we shouldn’t judge Oden too harshly.  As pure rookies go, Oden’s age-21 year kills most of the competition, including Bogut and Daugherty.  The only eerie point to see is that Oden and Dawkins are almost dead ringers at age.  Dawkins gets something of a bad rap (he had some good years) but he is not the best case scenario for Portland with Oden.  

In the end, the Blazers should still be a formidable team.  They aren’t on par with the Lakers but the Blazers are close to breaking through and Oden should help in that vein. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Damon Stoudamire 2000-01: 13.0 ppg, .434 FG%, 3.6 rpg, 5.7 apg, 16.3 PER

-SG, Brandon Roy 2008-09: 22.6 ppg, .480 FG%, 4.7 rpg, 5.1 apg, 24.0 PER

-SF, Scottie Pippen 1999-00: 12.5 ppg, .451 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 5.0 apg, 16.4 PER

-PF, Rasheed Wallace 2000-01: 19.2 ppg, .501 FG%, 7.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 20.9 PER

-C, Arvydas Sabonis 2000-01: 10.1 ppg, .479 FG%, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 20.3 PER 

2.    Denver Nuggets:  As great as 2008-09 turned out for Denver, some of the playoff success was a matter of circumstances.  Yes, getting Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson was a very good trade but it’s important to remember that the Nuggs have been a pretty good team for several years now.  In fact the 2007-08 team, which was swept out in the first round by the Lakers, actually had a better SRS rating and was only a few wins worse.  Denver was a little bit better both offensively and defensively in 2008-09, thanks to Billups and Carmelo Anthony.  Also, Marcus Camby was ably and surprisingly well replaced by Chris Andersen and a breakthrough year by Nene Hilario (shooting .604% from the field), not to mention a more healthy Kenyon Martin.  

There are some questions here too.  The primary concern is whether the front court was over its head last year.  Nene never shot so well before, Andersen played great after a long layoff, and Martin stayed mostly healthy (though he wasn’t super effective).  It’s hard to see all this happening again.  Any decline by the front court and Billups (he will be 33 this season) could knock Denver down to 50 wins or below and force a first round match up with a really good team like the Lakers or Spurs again.  While I don’t see such a steep decline, I don’t think the Nuggets are likely to improve.  Instead, the Nuggets are in four/five seed territory and will be in for a first round dog fight that could go either way. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Andre Miller 2003-04: 14.8 ppg, .457 FG%, 4.1 rpg, 6.9 apg, 18.8 PER

-SG, Allen Iverson 2007-08: 26.4 ppg, .458 FG%, 3.0 rpg, 7.1 apg, 20.9 PER

-SF, Carmelo Anthony 2005-06: 26.5 ppg, .481 FG%, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 22.0 PER

-PF, Antonio McDyess 2000-01: 20.8 ppg, .495 FG%, 12.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 22.0 PER

-C, Marcus Camby 2006-07: 11.2 ppg, .473 FG%, 11.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 19.1 PER 

3.    Utah Jazz:  There isn’t too much separating Portland, Utah, and Denver and any small or random happening could fluctuate the order that they finish.  They are all good teams but the Jazz have the most question marks right now.  For two years, the Jazz were the cream of the division and contenders to get out of the West.  Last year, injuries and disaffection by Carlos Boozer knocked the Jazz down a few wins and all of a sudden Utah was first round road kill.  Utah was still good but the slow start killed their chances of positioning them for a nice playoff run.  

This year, Utah is also in flux.  They have a ton of front court players in Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, and Paul Millsap to go with Deron Williams.  Utah also has some glaring weaknesses.  They can’t score  on the perimeter outside of Williams and Kyle Korver (only 392 threes made as a team) and C.J. Miles and Ronnie Brewer look stretched to score in starting roles.  Even the forward slots are muddled.  Boozer is in his contract year and never seems happy.  He can score but has been a weak defender.  As a side note, Boozer has had a strange career.  Think about the memorable events: 

-Star at Duke who leaves early and falls all the way to the second round.

-Instant hit in Cleveland despite the second round status.

-Gets into a tiff with Jason Richardson because he was offended that J-Rich bounced a ball off his head during the Rookie Game.

-Boozer screws over the Cavs by convincing them to allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in order to give him a bigger deal. Instead, Boozer runs away quickly to Utah and Cleveland looks quite foolish.

-Boozer alternates great years with injured years in Utah, interspersed with complaints that he subtle hints that wants to be traded. 

Based upon (some of) these facts, Boozer has been a pretty good signing for Utah but one could see why he might be more of a headache than his production allows for.  Also, both Kirilenko and Millsap have been more effective as power forwards.  Utah’s logical move would be to trade Boozer (or Kirlenko) to get a perimeter player who can be another scoring threat from outside.  Even with this glut of forwards and lack of guards, the Jazz should still be around 50 wins and, with the right playoff match up, they could win a series.

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Deron Williams 2008-09: 19.4 ppg, .471 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 10.7 apg, 21.1 PER

-SG, Jeff Hornacek 1999-00: 12.4 ppg, .492 FG%, 2.4 rpg, 2.6 apg, 16.3 PER

-SF, Andrei Kirilenko 2003-04: 16.5 ppg, .443 FG%, 8.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, 22.6 PER

-PF, Karl Malone 1999-00: 25.5 ppg, .509 FG%, 9.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, 27.1 PER

-C, Mehmet Okur 2005-06: 18.0 ppg, .460 FG%, 9.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 19.0 PER 

4.    Oklahoma City Thunder:  The Thunder are run shrewdly, have some cap room, and some nice young players.  Yes, the future is looking bright.  The present is still not quite there yet.  OKC primarily has Kevin Durant, very likely a superstar, and some players with potential to anything from useful NBA regulars to above average starters in Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, and Nenad Krstic.  As the young players develop, the Thunder should be a lot better this year but a playoff run is way too premature unless Durant turns into a Michael Jordan-type player this year.  At 21, it seems a little early for this too happen.  In addition, OKC was a truly awful offensive team last year (29th in the NBA).  Some of that was due to P.J. Carlesimo playing Durant out of position as a two-guard but Westbrook, Green, and the other non-Durant options really had problems scoring efficiently.  The possibilities are there for the Thunder to develop and acquire a star but they are basically where Portland was in 2006-07 and 2007-08.  The process can’t be rushed yet. 

Finally, this is also a good time to throw in my two-cents on the Durant +/- issue.  As everyone has noticed, the Thunder played better with Durant off the court (-8.4 last year) and have wondered if this revealed something about Durant defensively or effort-wise overall.  To me, this screams of a flukish stat.  Putting stats away, Durant is young and, by far, OKC’s best player.  Moreove,r  +/- tends to be a little flukey of a stat and dependent on factors beyond an individual players control.  Durant played almost 40 mpg last year, so it’s hard to think that the other 8 minutes per game could have been so vital and telling in context to reveal some secret hidden weakness in KD.  Even so, I’m sure all will be watching the stat again this season to see what happens.  

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Gary Payton 1999-00: 24.2 ppg, .448 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 6.5 apg, 23.6 PER

-SG, Ray Allen 2005-06: 25.1 ppg, .45 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 22.2 PER

-SF, Kevin Durant 2008-09: 25.3 ppg, .476 FG%, 6.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 20.8 PER

-PF, Rashard Lewis 2006-07: 22.4 ppg, .461 FG%, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 20.7 PER

-C, Nick Collison 2008-09: 8.2 ppg, .568 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 14.8 PER 

5.    Minnesota Timberwolves:  The Wolves have finally been extricated from the McHale Zone and are embracing the idea of rebuilding.  In fact, Kevin McHale actually found a couple of useful pieces for Minny (Kevin Love, Al Jefferson).  But McHale whiffed plenty in rebuilding too (Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants).  Right now, it’s David Kahn’s show.  It’s been hard to read Kahn so far.  It appeared that he was flying by the seat of his pants in drafting Johnny  Flynn very early and taking Ricky Rubio as well.  We have no inside knowledge on how Kahn has handled the Rubio negotiations but if he is correct about Rubio, this was a great move.  Losing a year or two of Rubio now while the team stinks won’t matter in the long term.  Just go ask the Celtics, who had to wait a year for Larry Bird, and the Spurs, who had to wait two years for David Robinson.  The key is, however, that Rubio better be pretty good and he better end up with the Wolves.  

For right now, Love is hurt and even if he wasn’t, the Wolves defense is horrible.  The offense isn’t great either but a full season of Jefferson, along with Ramon Sessions and Flynn might improve things a little.  But we’re only talking about the difference between of a few wins.  Minnesota will be a team 25-30 win team this year regardless.  As a Wolves fan, the primary direction to watch is across the Atlantic to see how Rubio is developing. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Sam Cassell 2003-04: 19.8 ppg, .488 FG%, 3.3 rpg, 7.3 apg, 22.8 PER

-SG, Wally Szczerbiak 2001-02: 18.7 ppg, .508 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 17.1 PER

-SF, Kevin Garnett 2003-04: 24.2 ppg, .499 FG%, 13.9 rpg, 5.0 apg, 29.4 PER

-PF, Al Jefferson 2007-08: 21.0 ppg, .500 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 22.7 PER

-C, Rasho Nesterovic 2002-03: 11.2 ppg, .525 FG%, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 14.7 PER

1.    San Antonio Spurs:    The numbers and the performance have shown the Spurs to be a team in decline the last two seasons.  In particular, the Spurs have have had some slippage defensively.  After a great defensive year in 2003-04 (94.1) the defensive has declined each season:

 Year        Defensive Rating

2003-04        94.1  (1st)

2004-05        98.8  (1st)

2005-06        99.6  (1st)

2006-07        99.9  (2nd)

2007-08       101.8 (3rd)

2008-09       104.3 (5th) 

The ratings have been respectable the last two years but well below the great numbers they put up previously.  Having determined that the defensive specialists (Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto) weren’t carrying their weight, the Spurs have totally re-tooled their team, signing Antonio McDyess and trading for Richard Jefferson in hopes of contending with the Lakers.  While it’s not clear whether McDyess and RJ will help fix the defense, they are both huge offensive upgrades over Bowen and Oberto, which is worth, at least, a few wins.  

But McDyess and RJ are only half the battle.  The Spurs are built around the core of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan.  Parker had his best season and Duncan is in the midst of a slow decline.  He did have some knee problems but the final numbers (19.3 ppg, .504 FG%, 10.7 rpg, 24.4 PER) are basically in line with what one would expect from a 32-year old Hall of Famer.  All of the inner circle centers were quite good until their late 30s and we have no reason to think TD will be any different. 

The real question mark is Ginobili.  While his rate stats were the same as in years past, he missed half the season with injuries and this killed the Spurs.  Ginobili has missed time in the base (usually about 10 games a year) but he is such a key that the Spurs ability to seriously contend rests on his health.  This is never a great thing when a player is 32 but he is young enough that it is not unreasonable to expect 65-70 games this season.  If he does play that much, the Spurs will contend and should be the second best team in the West and have a decent shot of beating the Lakers. 

All-2000s Team:  

-PG, Tony Parker 2008-09: 22.0 ppg, .506 FG%, 3.1 rpg, 6.9 apg, 23.4 PER

-SG, Manu Ginobili 2007-08: 19.5 ppg, .460 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg, 24.3 PER

-SF, Derek Anderson 2000-01: 15.5 ppg, .416 FG%, 4.4 rpg, 3.7 apg, 17.1 PER

-PF, Tim Duncan 2003-04: 22.3 ppg, .501 FG%, 12.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 27.1 PER

-C, David Robinson 1999-00: 17.8 ppg, .512 FG%, 9.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 24.6 PER 

2.    New Orleans Hornets:  The Hornets are team the could be coming or going.  On the bright side, the Hornets have Chris Paul, the best point guard in the NBA.  On the minus side, the Hornets have not yet excelled offensively or defensively as a team.  Instead, we have a pretty good 50-win team and we can’t really tell if the Hornets are a real contender.  Part of the problem last year was that the Hornets were a two-man team.  Paul was incredible (30.0 PER) and David West was his usual reliable self.  After that, however, things were not great.  Tyson Chandler struggled with injury and the triumvirate of overpaid small forwards (Peja Stojakovic, James Posey, Morris Peterson) were average at best. 

Fortunately, the Hornets have taken steps to improve by acquiring Emeka Okafor for Chandler.  So, the Hornets have a core now of Paul, West, and Okafor.  This is enough to get the Hornets to the 50-win level.  Can they get any higher?  Well, a normal Okafor season should be worth a few wins.  The only other upside on the roster belongs to a Julian Wright, who looks like he could be okay if given a chance.  Paul is also young and is at an age where players generally improve.  Understanding this fact, you do have to wonder how the hell Paul could improve off of his season (21.4 ppg, .503 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 10.3 apg)?  We looked at other young point guards but none of them ever scored as high as Paul did this year.  Paul had the 15th best single season PER ever and the best for a point guard and his 2007-08 was the second best season (Magic Johnson’s 1986-87 peak of 27.03 is third best and 73rd overall).   Paul is uncharted territory at this point and the sky is the limit.  

In case you are curious, here are the top point-guard PER seasons (we’re not counting Jerry West, Oscar Robertson, or Allen Iverson as points): 

1.  Chris Paul 2008-09, 29.96

2.  Chris Paul 2007-08, 28.31

3.  Magic Johnson 1986-87, 27.03

4.  Magic Johnson 1988-89, 26.92

5.  Magic Johnson 1989-90, 26.60

6.  Terrell Brandon 1995-96, 25.24

7.  Tiny Archibald 1972-73, 25.19

8.  Magic Johnson 1990-91, 25.05

9.  Magic Johnson 1985-86, 23.96

10.  John Stockton 1989-90, 23.87 

All-2000s Hornets:

-PG: Chris Paul 2008-09: 22.8 ppg, .503 FG%, 5.5 rpg, 11.0 apg, 30.0 PER

-SG: Eddie Jones 1999-00: 20.1 ppg, .427 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 19.9 PER

-SF:  Jamal Mashburn 2002-03: 21.6 ppg, .422 FG%, 6.1 rpg, 5.6 apg, 18.0 PER

-PF: David West 2007-08: 20.6 ppg, .482 FG%, 8.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, 19.9 PER

-C: Elden Campbell 2001-02: 13.9 ppg, .484 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 19.5 PER 

3.  Dallas Mavericks:    Like the Spurs, the Mavs are trying to squeeze a few more contending teams out of a nice core of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Josh Howard.  Unlike the Spurs, the Mavs don’t have a multiple titles (or even one title) to hang their hats on.  Rather, the Mavs harken back to the some of the teams of the 1990s who were very good for a decade but couldn’t quite get over the hump (the Ewing Knicks, the Mourning Heat, the Miller Pacers, the Payton/Kemp Sonics, the Barkley Suns, the Drexler Blazers, and the Malone/Stockton Jazz).  Back then, the hump was Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.  Now, the hump has been the Spurs and the Lakers (and, of course, the Dwyane Wade for one series).  Dallas was a decent team last year but the nature of this team has changed.  The Mavs had gradually changed from an offense first squad under Don Nelson to a very good, slow paced offense (though they still were efficient), and with a great defense under Avery Johnson. 

In Rick Carlisle’s first season Dallas was a good offensive team (5th in efficiency) but dipped to 17th in defensive efficiency, their lowest ratings since the Nellie years.  Squeezing more contention out of Dirk and his supporting players is absolutely the right move.  Dirk is 31 and still a great player.  The Mavs are also willing to double down on older players, as they signed Shawn Marion, who is also in his early 30s (though declining more rapidly than Dirk).  The key question here is whether spending the cash on Marion was the best way to go for it.  I tend to think the current roster is solid but not an improvement over the last few years.  Outside of Dirk, Marion and Kidd should slip a little more and the Mavs will have to figure out how to use Howard and Marion together (or it is likely that Howard will be traded).  This all adds up to another 50-win team and an outside shot at the second round.  Again.  The real hope for Dallas fans is that a great player becomes available and Mark Cuban’s willingness to spend converts them from a good team to a title contender, sort of like the Pau Gasol did in L.A. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG:  Steve Nash 2002-03: 17.7 ppg, .465 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 7.3 apg, 22.6 PER

-SG:  Michael Finley 1999-00: 22.6 ppg, .401 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 19.2 PER

-SF:  Antawn Jamison 2003-04: 14.8 ppg, .535 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 0.9 apg, 21.2 PER

-PF: Dirk Nowitzki 2005-06: 26.6 ppg, .480 FG%, 9.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 28.1 PER

-C:  Raef LaFrentz 2002-03: 9.3 ppg, .518 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 16.5 PER

4.    Houston Rockets:    2008-09 was a great year for the Rockets on the court.  With new coach Rick Adelman, the Rockets finally broke through to the second round and they continued the great defense that they demonstrated under Jeff Van Gundy.  But the success did not come in ways we all expected.  The Rockets had been based around Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming for years.  After struggling with injury (and apathy), T-Mac decided to undergo knee surgery without actually telling the team, which just happened to squelch pending trade talk.  This left the Rockets with a core of Yao, Ron Artest, and a bunch of useful role players like Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer, Carl Landry, Luis Scola, Shane Battier, and Aaron Brooks.  It worked pretty well and Houston gave the Lakers a pretty good run in the playoffs. 

Now T-Mac and Yao are out and Artest is gone.  They’ve added Trevor Ariza and some role players like David Andersen and Chase Budinger and they have a good coach and a creative GM.  But the problem is that there isn’t near enough scoring to offset the loss of Yao & Company.  The Rockets will play hard and play smart but the West is deep and they just don’t have the horses to get back to the playoffs this year.  The Rockets will hopefully have Yao back in 2010-11 and a ton of cap room.  So, the future could be bright but 2009-10 will be a lottery season. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Steve Francis 2000-01: 19.9 ppg, .451 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 6.5 apg, 20.6 PER

-SG, Cuttino Mobley 2000-01: 19.5 ppg, .434 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 17.7 PER

-SF, Tracy McGrady 2006-07: 24.6 ppg, .431 FG%< 5.3 rpg, 6.5 apg, 23.2 PER

-PF, Kenny Thomas 2001-02: 14.1 ppg, .478 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 16.4 PER

-C, Yao Ming 2004-05: 18.3 ppg, .552 FG%, 8.4 rpg, 0.8 apg, 23.2 PER 

5.    Memphis Grizzlies:    We reviewed the Grizz a bit in the transactions section this summer and the conclusions seem clear: this is bad scoring team, a horrible passing team, a team with a ton of chuckers like O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, and the team with the lowest attendance in the NBA.  Memphis’ answer was to obtain Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson and you have to wonder what the real plan is for the Grizz.  Randolph can score but is a defensive liability and is neither cheap nor a good soldier (and, yes, we all understand that the Grizz effectively traded Pau Gasol for him).  AI is a quick guard entering his mid-30s, who is also not usually a happy camper.  The team could actual improve because they do have more scorers and there is a shot that Hasheem Thabeet can help the shot blocking.  Despite all this, It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Grizz are even decent or even at the outskirts of the playoff race and Memphis will be forced to re-evaluate yet again next year.  

All-2000s Team:

PG, Jason Williams 2002-03: 12.1 ppg, .388 FG%, 2.8 rpg, 8.3 apg, 17.1 PER

SG, O.J. Mayo 2008-09: 18.5 ppg, .438 FG%, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 14.2 PER

SF, James Posey 2003-04: 13.7 ppg, .478 FG%, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 18.8 PER

PF, Shareef Abdur-Rahim 1999-00: 20.3 ppg, .465 FG%, 10.1 rpg, 3.3 apg, 20.2 PER

C, Pau Gasol 2005-06: 20.4 ppg, .503 FG%, 8.9 rpg, 4.6 apg, 22.6 PER