1.    Los Angeles Lakers:    The Lakers are the favorites to come out of the West again this year, as they were last year.  The success here isn’t a mystery.  The team has few weaknesses (defending quick point guards is the only one that comes to mind) and this is a team that excels offensively and defensively.  Obviously, Kobe Bryant is the key to this team but Pau Gasol is also an indispensable piece too.  Assuming they are healthy, there is no reason the Lakers won’t make the Finals again.  The only major differences between this team and last year’s is the effective trade of Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest and the potential of having Andrew Bynum healthy for the whole season. 

The Ariza/Artest trade is overblown.  Artest is probably still a better player than Ariza but the difference is overstated.  Artest is definitely the better scorer but his high volume shooting might actually not be a better fit for the Lakers.  Further, Ariza defends quicker players better than Artest at this point.  The caveat here is that Artest can still bang and he is a nice match up defensively for LeBron James, something that the Lakers were missing.  As for Bynum, his health is only gravy for the Lakers.  If he continues to develop the Lakers, even now, have some room for improvement. 

Is there anything bad going on here?  Not really.  The only even quasi-bad item to note is that Kobe, as great as he is, has been declining slightly the last few years.  The only part of his game where this might be evident is in his ability to get to the line.  Bryant had his lowest free throw rate since 2002-03.  The rate is still quite good but off from the peak of the mid-2000s.  This means nothing for now but is something worth tracking over the next few seasons. 

As another side note, the 2008-09 Lakers were quite good from an historical perspective.  The 2008-09 team tied the 1986-87 team for the third most wins (65) in franchise history.  Here’s how the team scored on SRS rating: 

1.    1971-72 Lakers, 11.65 (69-13)

2.    1999-00 Lakers, 8.41 (67-15)

3.    1986-87 Lakers, 8.32 (65-17)

4.    1972-73 Lakers, 8.18 (60-22)

5.    2007-08 Lakers, 7.34 (57-25)

6.    2001-02 Lakers, 7.15 (58-24)

7.    2008-09 Lakers, 7.11 (65-17)

8.    1997-98 Lakers, 6.88 (61-21)

9.    1985-86 Lakers, 6.84 (62-20)

10.  1989-90 Lakers, 6.74 (63-19) 

So, the 2008-09 Lakers don’t register as the best team ever but they are in the conversation with the Wilt/West teams, the Showtime Lakers, and the Kobe/Shaq Lakers.  Interestingly, the 2008-09 team didn’t score as well as the 2007-08 team and neither team hit the heights of the best of the other Laker dynasties. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Gary Payton 2003-04: 14.6 ppg, .471 FG%, 4.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 17.3 PER

-SG, Kobe Bryant 2005-06: 35.4 ppg, .450 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 28.0 PER

-SF, Lamar Odom 2005-06: 13.3 ppg, .481 FG%, 8.2 rpg, 5.0 apg, 17.0 PER

-PF, Pau Gasol 2008-09: 18.9 ppg, .567 FG%, 9.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 22.2 PER

-C, Shaquille O’Neal 1999-00: 29.7 ppg, .574 FG%, 13.6 rpg, 3.8 apg, 30.6 PER 

2.    Phoenix Suns:    After three straight years of decline, the Suns have kind of righted the ship.  They’ve come to terms with the fact that a Steve Nash/Amare Stoudemire team is supposed to run and defense and half court offense don’t have to be a focus but that they only need to be acceptable.  Indeed, the whole Shaquille O’Neal excursion made the Suns actually worse defensively than they were in the Mike D’Antoni years (in fact, the D’Antoni teams were decent defensively).  When Alvin Gentry came in and Shaq was sent out, the Suns returned to running but the defense declined even further (26th in the NBA) and the Suns ended up wasting nearly two years of Nash’s prime farting around with a half court offense. 

Now, the Suns are back to the old ways but time has not stood still in the meantime.  The core is still there for a solid team but no longer is this a title team.  Nash is a little older and Stoudemire struggled with eye injuries and a very unsettled contract situation.  Amare has a $17 million option for next year (which he is likely to exercise) and the Suns don’t seem to trust him enough to give a big extension because of the injuries he has had, the money he’s demanding, and the fact that the Suns have been careful with cash the last few years.  Indeed, I think the Suns gave Nash an extension at a time when he was still under contract for a few years because he’s a decent bet to stay good, the fans love him, and the goodwill will help management when Amare is ultimately traded or let go as a free agent. 

If Amare remains, having him along with Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, and Leandrinho Barbosa gives the Suns a formidable running team.  They never will be able to stop any of the really good teams but will have a vibe like some of the old Don Nelson teams in Golden State and Dallas, where they can beat anyone if everything breaks right for their offense.  Expect the Phoenix to be a seed somewhere between 5 and 8 seed with an entertaining but decisive first round loss. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Steve Nash 2006-07: 18.6 ppg, .532 FG%, 3.5 rpg, 11.6 apg, 23.8 PER

-SG, Leandro Barbosa 2008-09: 14.2 ppg, .482 FG%, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 19.4 PER

-SF, Boris Diaw 2005-06: 13.3 ppg, .526 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 6.2 apg, 17.3 PER

-PF, Shawn Marion 2005-06: 21.8 ppg, .525 FG%, 11.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 23.6 PER
-C, Amare Stoudemire 2007-08: 25.2 ppg, .590 FG%, 9.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 27.6 PER 

3.    Los Angeles Clippers:    The Clipps were as terrible as any team last year.  The year started out with Elton Brand spurning the Clipps to go East and leaving new signee Baron Davis without his expected running mate.  Davis’ signing was dubious even if the Clipps had re-signed Brand and Brand was still great.  Without Brand, Davis had a career worst season, shooting poorly and just generally looking like a bust.  On top of that, Chris Kaman was injured and the Clipps somehow decided that Zach Randolph would work well as a Bizarro Elton Brand.  This all worked about as well as one would think and the Clipps basically folded on the season (4-20 the last month of the season) and earned enough ping pong balls to get the Blake Griffin, the prize of the draft.  

Now, the Clipps look a little better.  Eric Gordon and Marcus Camby both played well and Kaman should be healthy and Davis might seem more motivated.  Add in Griffin and you might have a playoff team.  Well not quite, particularly since Griffin broke his knee/leg and will miss six weeks.  But even with a healthy Griffin this team had a long way to go, as they pulled of the remarkable feat of being the worst offensive team in the NBA and almost the worst defensive team too last season.  We expect some improvement but unless the vets (Davis) return to form and Griffin ends up being an instant star, improvement will be measured in being a competitive team, if not an above .500 team. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Sam Cassell 2005-06: 17.2 ppg, .443 FG%, 3.7 rpg, 6.3 apg, 18.5 PER

-SG, Derek Anderson 1999-00: 16.9 ppg, .438 FG%, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 16.9 PER

-SF, Lamar Odom 2000-01: 17.2 ppg, .460 FG%, 7.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 18.9 PER

-PF, Elton Brand 2005-06: 24.7 ppg, .527 FG%, 10.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 26.5 PER

-C, Chris Kaman 2007-08: 15.7 ppg, .483 FG%, 12.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 17.5 PER 

4.    Golden State Warriors:    We’ve all seen this show before.  The formula is pretty clear: moderately talented offensive team (9th in the NBA) + not so great defense (28th in the NBA) + apathetic Don Nelson = lottery.  Somehow, Nellie has wrested control of the organization again and burned some bridges in the process.  Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis are both unhappy in Golden State.  Neither of these developments are entirely the organization’s fault.  Jax was just given an inexplicable extension and should be thanking management, even if the team isn’t as good as he expected.  Ellis seems annoyed that the Warriors have given him a hard time about violating his newly minted contract too.  

Where Nellie has had problems is with his own commitment to the franchise.  After Robert Rowell forced out Chris Mullin and gave Nellie back more power than he has had since the 1990s, Nelson responded by talking more about how he could be retiring soon.   You hate to play amateur psychologist but such public pronouncements couldn’t have helped the team deal with Jackson and Ellis, even if their complaints are totally irrational.  Despite all this, there is some young talent in Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph.  To make this team work is a long term project and Nelson isn’t really in the place to be doing this.  This is not to say that older short-term coaches can’t work (Chuck Daly did great in New Jersey and Orlando as a short term fix) but Nellie hasn’t rallied the troops yet and this smells like another fold job, as we’ve seen a few times in the past with Nelson (think the 1989-90, 1992-93, and 1994-95 Warriors). 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Baron Davis 2006-07: 20.1 ppg, .439 FG%, 4.4 rpg, 8.1 apg, 21.0 PER

-SG, Jason Richardson 2005-06: 23.2 ppg, .446 FG%, 5.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 19.2 PER

-SF, Antawn Jamison 2002-03: 22.2 ppg, .470 FG%, 7.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 19.0 PER

-PF, Troy Murphy 2004-05: 15.4 ppg, .414 FG%, 10.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 16.8 PER

-C, Andris Biedrins 2007-08: 10.5 ppg, .626 FG%, 9.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 19.2 PER 

5.    Sacramento Kings:    Move along…not much to see here.  The Kings have known they had to rebuild for years.  The problem is the Kings have not rebuilt well.  They divested themselves of the old guard (Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic) without huge commitments when the players declined but starting over has proven difficult, as they have sunk to the bottom and just stayed there.  The Kings have gone through several coaches since forcing out Rick Adelman and have managed to give long-term deals to players who should be working on short-term deals (Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia, Mikki Moore).  This is not the kind of stability an organization needs when it’s trying to come up with a coherent plan. 

Now the team is trying to start over again with a team that could fit in quite well with the rebuilding squads of the 1980s and 1990s that featured Mitch Richmond and trinkets.  The current roster consists of one scorer like Richmond (Kevin Martin), the aforementioned long-term salary anchors in Udrih and Garcia, and a bunch of potentially decent young players (Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Tyreke Evans).  It’s not clear if any of these players constitutes a future building block but, hopefully, the Kings won’t be hung up on a style of play and will, instead, focus on developing the youngsters.  Whether the focus is right or not, however, this probably will be the worst team in the NBA in 2009-10. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Mike Bibby 2003-04: 18.4 ppg, .450 FG%, 3.4 rpg, 5.4 apg, 19.3 PER

-SG, Kevin Martin 2006-07: 20.2 ppg, .473 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 20.1 PER

-SF, Peja Stojakovic 2003-04: 24.2 ppg, .480 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 21.8 PER

-PF, Chris Webber 2000-01: 27.1 ppg, .481 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 24.7 PER

-C, Vlade Divac 1999-00: 12.3 ppg, .503 FG%, 8.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 18.0 PER

Defensively, the Blazers do have some room improve.  They were a decent 13th overall but one could certainly envision that a healthy and presumably improving Greg Oden might be able to positively effect that facet of the team.  This also seem like a good point to stop and see where Oden is in his development.  He was clearly more raw than other great centers were as rookies.  But Oden was only 21 and showed some promise in his rate stats.  So, let’s see what the other centers were doing at a similar age:

*rookies seasons above are listed in bold 

Prior to the mid-2000s, having a 21-year old center was quite rare.  This was a function of the college system (Ewing, Sampson, Olajuwon, and Robinson all hung around college until after age-22), with the notable exceptions of Shaq and a few others.  This decade, however, there is plenty of basis to compare Oden.  In fact we have quite a few centers who have been better than Oden at age.  Oden’s numbers are nice but not quite at the level of Bynum, Biedrins, and, of course, Howard.  Still, Oden was nearly as good and this was his rookie year, while his contemporaries had been in the pros for a few years before turning age-21.  So, we shouldn’t judge Oden too harshly.  As pure rookies go, Oden’s age-21 year kills most of the competition, including Bogut and Daugherty.  The only eerie point to see is that Oden and Dawkins are almost dead ringers at age.  Dawkins gets something of a bad rap (he had some good years) but he is not the best case scenario for Portland with Oden.  

In the end, the Blazers should still be a formidable team.  They aren’t on par with the Lakers but the Blazers are close to breaking through and Oden should help in that vein. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Damon Stoudamire 2000-01: 13.0 ppg, .434 FG%, 3.6 rpg, 5.7 apg, 16.3 PER

-SG, Brandon Roy 2008-09: 22.6 ppg, .480 FG%, 4.7 rpg, 5.1 apg, 24.0 PER

-SF, Scottie Pippen 1999-00: 12.5 ppg, .451 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 5.0 apg, 16.4 PER

-PF, Rasheed Wallace 2000-01: 19.2 ppg, .501 FG%, 7.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 20.9 PER

-C, Arvydas Sabonis 2000-01: 10.1 ppg, .479 FG%, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 20.3 PER 

2.    Denver Nuggets:  As great as 2008-09 turned out for Denver, some of the playoff success was a matter of circumstances.  Yes, getting Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson was a very good trade but it’s important to remember that the Nuggs have been a pretty good team for several years now.  In fact the 2007-08 team, which was swept out in the first round by the Lakers, actually had a better SRS rating and was only a few wins worse.  Denver was a little bit better both offensively and defensively in 2008-09, thanks to Billups and Carmelo Anthony.  Also, Marcus Camby was ably and surprisingly well replaced by Chris Andersen and a breakthrough year by Nene Hilario (shooting .604% from the field), not to mention a more healthy Kenyon Martin.  

There are some questions here too.  The primary concern is whether the front court was over its head last year.  Nene never shot so well before, Andersen played great after a long layoff, and Martin stayed mostly healthy (though he wasn’t super effective).  It’s hard to see all this happening again.  Any decline by the front court and Billups (he will be 33 this season) could knock Denver down to 50 wins or below and force a first round match up with a really good team like the Lakers or Spurs again.  While I don’t see such a steep decline, I don’t think the Nuggets are likely to improve.  Instead, the Nuggets are in four/five seed territory and will be in for a first round dog fight that could go either way. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Andre Miller 2003-04: 14.8 ppg, .457 FG%, 4.1 rpg, 6.9 apg, 18.8 PER

-SG, Allen Iverson 2007-08: 26.4 ppg, .458 FG%, 3.0 rpg, 7.1 apg, 20.9 PER

-SF, Carmelo Anthony 2005-06: 26.5 ppg, .481 FG%, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 22.0 PER

-PF, Antonio McDyess 2000-01: 20.8 ppg, .495 FG%, 12.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 22.0 PER

-C, Marcus Camby 2006-07: 11.2 ppg, .473 FG%, 11.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 19.1 PER 

3.    Utah Jazz:  There isn’t too much separating Portland, Utah, and Denver and any small or random happening could fluctuate the order that they finish.  They are all good teams but the Jazz have the most question marks right now.  For two years, the Jazz were the cream of the division and contenders to get out of the West.  Last year, injuries and disaffection by Carlos Boozer knocked the Jazz down a few wins and all of a sudden Utah was first round road kill.  Utah was still good but the slow start killed their chances of positioning them for a nice playoff run.  

This year, Utah is also in flux.  They have a ton of front court players in Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, and Paul Millsap to go with Deron Williams.  Utah also has some glaring weaknesses.  They can’t score  on the perimeter outside of Williams and Kyle Korver (only 392 threes made as a team) and C.J. Miles and Ronnie Brewer look stretched to score in starting roles.  Even the forward slots are muddled.  Boozer is in his contract year and never seems happy.  He can score but has been a weak defender.  As a side note, Boozer has had a strange career.  Think about the memorable events: 

-Star at Duke who leaves early and falls all the way to the second round.

-Instant hit in Cleveland despite the second round status.

-Gets into a tiff with Jason Richardson because he was offended that J-Rich bounced a ball off his head during the Rookie Game.

-Boozer screws over the Cavs by convincing them to allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in order to give him a bigger deal. Instead, Boozer runs away quickly to Utah and Cleveland looks quite foolish.

-Boozer alternates great years with injured years in Utah, interspersed with complaints that he subtle hints that wants to be traded. 

Based upon (some of) these facts, Boozer has been a pretty good signing for Utah but one could see why he might be more of a headache than his production allows for.  Also, both Kirilenko and Millsap have been more effective as power forwards.  Utah’s logical move would be to trade Boozer (or Kirlenko) to get a perimeter player who can be another scoring threat from outside.  Even with this glut of forwards and lack of guards, the Jazz should still be around 50 wins and, with the right playoff match up, they could win a series.

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Deron Williams 2008-09: 19.4 ppg, .471 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 10.7 apg, 21.1 PER

-SG, Jeff Hornacek 1999-00: 12.4 ppg, .492 FG%, 2.4 rpg, 2.6 apg, 16.3 PER

-SF, Andrei Kirilenko 2003-04: 16.5 ppg, .443 FG%, 8.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, 22.6 PER

-PF, Karl Malone 1999-00: 25.5 ppg, .509 FG%, 9.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, 27.1 PER

-C, Mehmet Okur 2005-06: 18.0 ppg, .460 FG%, 9.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 19.0 PER 

4.    Oklahoma City Thunder:  The Thunder are run shrewdly, have some cap room, and some nice young players.  Yes, the future is looking bright.  The present is still not quite there yet.  OKC primarily has Kevin Durant, very likely a superstar, and some players with potential to anything from useful NBA regulars to above average starters in Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, and Nenad Krstic.  As the young players develop, the Thunder should be a lot better this year but a playoff run is way too premature unless Durant turns into a Michael Jordan-type player this year.  At 21, it seems a little early for this too happen.  In addition, OKC was a truly awful offensive team last year (29th in the NBA).  Some of that was due to P.J. Carlesimo playing Durant out of position as a two-guard but Westbrook, Green, and the other non-Durant options really had problems scoring efficiently.  The possibilities are there for the Thunder to develop and acquire a star but they are basically where Portland was in 2006-07 and 2007-08.  The process can’t be rushed yet. 

Finally, this is also a good time to throw in my two-cents on the Durant +/- issue.  As everyone has noticed, the Thunder played better with Durant off the court (-8.4 last year) and have wondered if this revealed something about Durant defensively or effort-wise overall.  To me, this screams of a flukish stat.  Putting stats away, Durant is young and, by far, OKC’s best player.  Moreove,r  +/- tends to be a little flukey of a stat and dependent on factors beyond an individual players control.  Durant played almost 40 mpg last year, so it’s hard to think that the other 8 minutes per game could have been so vital and telling in context to reveal some secret hidden weakness in KD.  Even so, I’m sure all will be watching the stat again this season to see what happens.  

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Gary Payton 1999-00: 24.2 ppg, .448 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 6.5 apg, 23.6 PER

-SG, Ray Allen 2005-06: 25.1 ppg, .45 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 22.2 PER

-SF, Kevin Durant 2008-09: 25.3 ppg, .476 FG%, 6.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 20.8 PER

-PF, Rashard Lewis 2006-07: 22.4 ppg, .461 FG%, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 20.7 PER

-C, Nick Collison 2008-09: 8.2 ppg, .568 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 14.8 PER 

5.    Minnesota Timberwolves:  The Wolves have finally been extricated from the McHale Zone and are embracing the idea of rebuilding.  In fact, Kevin McHale actually found a couple of useful pieces for Minny (Kevin Love, Al Jefferson).  But McHale whiffed plenty in rebuilding too (Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants).  Right now, it’s David Kahn’s show.  It’s been hard to read Kahn so far.  It appeared that he was flying by the seat of his pants in drafting Johnny  Flynn very early and taking Ricky Rubio as well.  We have no inside knowledge on how Kahn has handled the Rubio negotiations but if he is correct about Rubio, this was a great move.  Losing a year or two of Rubio now while the team stinks won’t matter in the long term.  Just go ask the Celtics, who had to wait a year for Larry Bird, and the Spurs, who had to wait two years for David Robinson.  The key is, however, that Rubio better be pretty good and he better end up with the Wolves.  

For right now, Love is hurt and even if he wasn’t, the Wolves defense is horrible.  The offense isn’t great either but a full season of Jefferson, along with Ramon Sessions and Flynn might improve things a little.  But we’re only talking about the difference between of a few wins.  Minnesota will be a team 25-30 win team this year regardless.  As a Wolves fan, the primary direction to watch is across the Atlantic to see how Rubio is developing. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Sam Cassell 2003-04: 19.8 ppg, .488 FG%, 3.3 rpg, 7.3 apg, 22.8 PER

-SG, Wally Szczerbiak 2001-02: 18.7 ppg, .508 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 17.1 PER

-SF, Kevin Garnett 2003-04: 24.2 ppg, .499 FG%, 13.9 rpg, 5.0 apg, 29.4 PER

-PF, Al Jefferson 2007-08: 21.0 ppg, .500 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 22.7 PER

-C, Rasho Nesterovic 2002-03: 11.2 ppg, .525 FG%, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 14.7 PER

1.    San Antonio Spurs:    The numbers and the performance have shown the Spurs to be a team in decline the last two seasons.  In particular, the Spurs have have had some slippage defensively.  After a great defensive year in 2003-04 (94.1) the defensive has declined each season:

 Year        Defensive Rating

2003-04        94.1  (1st)

2004-05        98.8  (1st)

2005-06        99.6  (1st)

2006-07        99.9  (2nd)

2007-08       101.8 (3rd)

2008-09       104.3 (5th) 

The ratings have been respectable the last two years but well below the great numbers they put up previously.  Having determined that the defensive specialists (Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto) weren’t carrying their weight, the Spurs have totally re-tooled their team, signing Antonio McDyess and trading for Richard Jefferson in hopes of contending with the Lakers.  While it’s not clear whether McDyess and RJ will help fix the defense, they are both huge offensive upgrades over Bowen and Oberto, which is worth, at least, a few wins.  

But McDyess and RJ are only half the battle.  The Spurs are built around the core of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan.  Parker had his best season and Duncan is in the midst of a slow decline.  He did have some knee problems but the final numbers (19.3 ppg, .504 FG%, 10.7 rpg, 24.4 PER) are basically in line with what one would expect from a 32-year old Hall of Famer.  All of the inner circle centers were quite good until their late 30s and we have no reason to think TD will be any different. 

The real question mark is Ginobili.  While his rate stats were the same as in years past, he missed half the season with injuries and this killed the Spurs.  Ginobili has missed time in the base (usually about 10 games a year) but he is such a key that the Spurs ability to seriously contend rests on his health.  This is never a great thing when a player is 32 but he is young enough that it is not unreasonable to expect 65-70 games this season.  If he does play that much, the Spurs will contend and should be the second best team in the West and have a decent shot of beating the Lakers. 

All-2000s Team:  

-PG, Tony Parker 2008-09: 22.0 ppg, .506 FG%, 3.1 rpg, 6.9 apg, 23.4 PER

-SG, Manu Ginobili 2007-08: 19.5 ppg, .460 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg, 24.3 PER

-SF, Derek Anderson 2000-01: 15.5 ppg, .416 FG%, 4.4 rpg, 3.7 apg, 17.1 PER

-PF, Tim Duncan 2003-04: 22.3 ppg, .501 FG%, 12.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 27.1 PER

-C, David Robinson 1999-00: 17.8 ppg, .512 FG%, 9.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 24.6 PER 

2.    New Orleans Hornets:  The Hornets are team the could be coming or going.  On the bright side, the Hornets have Chris Paul, the best point guard in the NBA.  On the minus side, the Hornets have not yet excelled offensively or defensively as a team.  Instead, we have a pretty good 50-win team and we can’t really tell if the Hornets are a real contender.  Part of the problem last year was that the Hornets were a two-man team.  Paul was incredible (30.0 PER) and David West was his usual reliable self.  After that, however, things were not great.  Tyson Chandler struggled with injury and the triumvirate of overpaid small forwards (Peja Stojakovic, James Posey, Morris Peterson) were average at best. 

Fortunately, the Hornets have taken steps to improve by acquiring Emeka Okafor for Chandler.  So, the Hornets have a core now of Paul, West, and Okafor.  This is enough to get the Hornets to the 50-win level.  Can they get any higher?  Well, a normal Okafor season should be worth a few wins.  The only other upside on the roster belongs to a Julian Wright, who looks like he could be okay if given a chance.  Paul is also young and is at an age where players generally improve.  Understanding this fact, you do have to wonder how the hell Paul could improve off of his season (21.4 ppg, .503 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 10.3 apg)?  We looked at other young point guards but none of them ever scored as high as Paul did this year.  Paul had the 15th best single season PER ever and the best for a point guard and his 2007-08 was the second best season (Magic Johnson’s 1986-87 peak of 27.03 is third best and 73rd overall).   Paul is uncharted territory at this point and the sky is the limit.  

In case you are curious, here are the top point-guard PER seasons (we’re not counting Jerry West, Oscar Robertson, or Allen Iverson as points): 

1.  Chris Paul 2008-09, 29.96

2.  Chris Paul 2007-08, 28.31

3.  Magic Johnson 1986-87, 27.03

4.  Magic Johnson 1988-89, 26.92

5.  Magic Johnson 1989-90, 26.60

6.  Terrell Brandon 1995-96, 25.24

7.  Tiny Archibald 1972-73, 25.19

8.  Magic Johnson 1990-91, 25.05

9.  Magic Johnson 1985-86, 23.96

10.  John Stockton 1989-90, 23.87 

All-2000s Hornets:

-PG: Chris Paul 2008-09: 22.8 ppg, .503 FG%, 5.5 rpg, 11.0 apg, 30.0 PER

-SG: Eddie Jones 1999-00: 20.1 ppg, .427 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 19.9 PER

-SF:  Jamal Mashburn 2002-03: 21.6 ppg, .422 FG%, 6.1 rpg, 5.6 apg, 18.0 PER

-PF: David West 2007-08: 20.6 ppg, .482 FG%, 8.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, 19.9 PER

-C: Elden Campbell 2001-02: 13.9 ppg, .484 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 19.5 PER 

3.  Dallas Mavericks:    Like the Spurs, the Mavs are trying to squeeze a few more contending teams out of a nice core of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Josh Howard.  Unlike the Spurs, the Mavs don’t have a multiple titles (or even one title) to hang their hats on.  Rather, the Mavs harken back to the some of the teams of the 1990s who were very good for a decade but couldn’t quite get over the hump (the Ewing Knicks, the Mourning Heat, the Miller Pacers, the Payton/Kemp Sonics, the Barkley Suns, the Drexler Blazers, and the Malone/Stockton Jazz).  Back then, the hump was Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.  Now, the hump has been the Spurs and the Lakers (and, of course, the Dwyane Wade for one series).  Dallas was a decent team last year but the nature of this team has changed.  The Mavs had gradually changed from an offense first squad under Don Nelson to a very good, slow paced offense (though they still were efficient), and with a great defense under Avery Johnson. 

In Rick Carlisle’s first season Dallas was a good offensive team (5th in efficiency) but dipped to 17th in defensive efficiency, their lowest ratings since the Nellie years.  Squeezing more contention out of Dirk and his supporting players is absolutely the right move.  Dirk is 31 and still a great player.  The Mavs are also willing to double down on older players, as they signed Shawn Marion, who is also in his early 30s (though declining more rapidly than Dirk).  The key question here is whether spending the cash on Marion was the best way to go for it.  I tend to think the current roster is solid but not an improvement over the last few years.  Outside of Dirk, Marion and Kidd should slip a little more and the Mavs will have to figure out how to use Howard and Marion together (or it is likely that Howard will be traded).  This all adds up to another 50-win team and an outside shot at the second round.  Again.  The real hope for Dallas fans is that a great player becomes available and Mark Cuban’s willingness to spend converts them from a good team to a title contender, sort of like the Pau Gasol did in L.A. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG:  Steve Nash 2002-03: 17.7 ppg, .465 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 7.3 apg, 22.6 PER

-SG:  Michael Finley 1999-00: 22.6 ppg, .401 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 19.2 PER

-SF:  Antawn Jamison 2003-04: 14.8 ppg, .535 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 0.9 apg, 21.2 PER

-PF: Dirk Nowitzki 2005-06: 26.6 ppg, .480 FG%, 9.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 28.1 PER

-C:  Raef LaFrentz 2002-03: 9.3 ppg, .518 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 16.5 PER

4.    Houston Rockets:    2008-09 was a great year for the Rockets on the court.  With new coach Rick Adelman, the Rockets finally broke through to the second round and they continued the great defense that they demonstrated under Jeff Van Gundy.  But the success did not come in ways we all expected.  The Rockets had been based around Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming for years.  After struggling with injury (and apathy), T-Mac decided to undergo knee surgery without actually telling the team, which just happened to squelch pending trade talk.  This left the Rockets with a core of Yao, Ron Artest, and a bunch of useful role players like Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer, Carl Landry, Luis Scola, Shane Battier, and Aaron Brooks.  It worked pretty well and Houston gave the Lakers a pretty good run in the playoffs. 

Now T-Mac and Yao are out and Artest is gone.  They’ve added Trevor Ariza and some role players like David Andersen and Chase Budinger and they have a good coach and a creative GM.  But the problem is that there isn’t near enough scoring to offset the loss of Yao & Company.  The Rockets will play hard and play smart but the West is deep and they just don’t have the horses to get back to the playoffs this year.  The Rockets will hopefully have Yao back in 2010-11 and a ton of cap room.  So, the future could be bright but 2009-10 will be a lottery season. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Steve Francis 2000-01: 19.9 ppg, .451 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 6.5 apg, 20.6 PER

-SG, Cuttino Mobley 2000-01: 19.5 ppg, .434 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 17.7 PER

-SF, Tracy McGrady 2006-07: 24.6 ppg, .431 FG%< 5.3 rpg, 6.5 apg, 23.2 PER

-PF, Kenny Thomas 2001-02: 14.1 ppg, .478 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 16.4 PER

-C, Yao Ming 2004-05: 18.3 ppg, .552 FG%, 8.4 rpg, 0.8 apg, 23.2 PER 

5.    Memphis Grizzlies:    We reviewed the Grizz a bit in the transactions section this summer and the conclusions seem clear: this is bad scoring team, a horrible passing team, a team with a ton of chuckers like O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, and the team with the lowest attendance in the NBA.  Memphis’ answer was to obtain Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson and you have to wonder what the real plan is for the Grizz.  Randolph can score but is a defensive liability and is neither cheap nor a good soldier (and, yes, we all understand that the Grizz effectively traded Pau Gasol for him).  AI is a quick guard entering his mid-30s, who is also not usually a happy camper.  The team could actual improve because they do have more scorers and there is a shot that Hasheem Thabeet can help the shot blocking.  Despite all this, It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Grizz are even decent or even at the outskirts of the playoff race and Memphis will be forced to re-evaluate yet again next year.  

All-2000s Team:

PG, Jason Williams 2002-03: 12.1 ppg, .388 FG%, 2.8 rpg, 8.3 apg, 17.1 PER

SG, O.J. Mayo 2008-09: 18.5 ppg, .438 FG%, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 14.2 PER

SF, James Posey 2003-04: 13.7 ppg, .478 FG%, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 18.8 PER

PF, Shareef Abdur-Rahim 1999-00: 20.3 ppg, .465 FG%, 10.1 rpg, 3.3 apg, 20.2 PER

C, Pau Gasol 2005-06: 20.4 ppg, .503 FG%, 8.9 rpg, 4.6 apg, 22.6 PER

The Southeast is an interesting new fangled division.  Since the NBA switched to a three-division format, the Southeast has been the shallowest in terms of talent.  While they have had some nice teams (2004-06 Heat and the 2008-09 Magic), the rest of the teams in the division have varied from middling to bad.  2008-09, however, was the first year that the division managed to have three teams over .500.  The division should be even a little better this year as Washington will be improved and Charlotte actually has an outside shot at the playoffs.  Let’s take a look:

1.    Orlando Magic: The absolute cream of the division and co-favorite for the Eastern Conference title.  The Magic melded a unique style of taking a ton of threes (almost double their opponents) and a bunch of free throws on offense with a stifling defense (best in the NBA by efficiency numbers).  Obviously, Dwight Howard is the best player on the team and the focal point for everything they do and is only 24 years old to boot.  Throw in a core of pretty young players (Jameer Nelson is 27 and Rashard Lewis is 30) and Vince Carter (an upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu) and there is little reason why the Magic can’t at least stay at last year’s level as a team.  In fact, the 2008-09 run was no fluke.  Really, the Magic have been pretty formidable team for two years running.  The 2007-08 version won 52 games but had the expected won-loss record of a 56-win team and was actually better offensively than last year’s model. 

So, the Magic have been good for a while and should continue to be but can they return to the Finals?  The answer depends as much on the Cavs as on the Magic.  Cleveland struggled with Orlando’s style last year.  Shaquille O’Neal is supposed to be the big body to finally contain Howard and fix that problem.  The Lakers were effective against Howard in the Finals with a similar strategy.  A Magic fan might note, however, that Howard is still improving and by the end of 2009-10, it might be impossible to stop Howard with a bunch of big men.

Despite all these facts, the Magic were objectively considered a surprise finalist to most people.  I thought we could go through and see how other surprise finalists followed up their appearances.  It’s hard to categorize what constitutes a “surprise” in this context.  Sure Orlando was a surprise but the Magic were a damn good team last year but most people did not think they would beat an excellent Cavs team.  On the other end, we have had .500ish teams get hot and make a surprise run to the Finals and that also can be considered a surprise team.  So, a surprise finalist encompasses a few different scenarios, some of which don’t really apply to the Magic.  In any event, we’ll just pick teams that were not reasonably expected to make the Finals at the start of the playoffs, even if some aren’t like the Magic because frankly it’s interesting to review and you never know what the facts will tell you.  Here’s the list (from 1980 to the present):

-2006-07 Cavaliers: In 2006-07, the Cavs made the Finals by upsetting the Pistons based upon an insane performance by LeBron in Games 5 and 6 of the series.  In 2007-08, the Cavs actually regressed in the regular season to 47-35 but were quite good in the playoffs.  Cleveland lost to the eventual champ Celtics in a tough seven game series in the second round.

-1998-99 Knicks: The eight-seeded Knicks upset the higher seeded Heat, Hawks, and Pacers on their way to the Finals during the weird lockout season before getting waxed by the Spurs.  New York followed its great playoff run with a 50-win season and a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  This time the Pacers beat them 4-2.

-1994-95 Rockets: Despite being a six seed, the Rockets went on to repeat and win the title in 1994-95.  In 1995-96, the Rockets were a five seed again and improved the record slightly to 48-34.  In the playoffs, however, they were swept out in the second round by the Payton/Kemp Sonics.

-1989-90 Blazers: Like the current Magic team, these Blazers were an excellent young team (59-23) but were just not expected to beat the dominant one seed in the playoffs (in Portland’s case this was the Magic Johnson Lakers).  The Blazers didn’t have to beat the Lakers, however, because Phoenix ran L.A. off the court in round two.  Portland then beat the Suns in the Western Conference Finals before losing to the Pistons in the Finals.  In 1990-91, Portland was even better (63-19) but lost to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

-1985-86 Rockets: The Rockets featured the Twin Towers (Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson) and were 51-31.  They managed to blow away the Magic Johnson Lakers 4-1 before losing to the Celtics in the Finals.  In 1986-87, the Rockets slumped to 42-40 but still made the second round, where they lost to the Sonics 4-2.

-1980-81 Rockets: The Rockets were a fringe playoff team (40-42) but featured the best center in the NBA (Moses Malone).  They beat the Lakers in the old best-of-three mini-series format and then went on to the Finals where they lost to the Celtics.  In 1981-82, the Rockets improved to 46-36 but luck wasn’t on their side as they lost their first round mini-series this time (to the Sonics).

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Darrell Armstrong 1999-00: 16.2 ppg, .433 FG%, 3.3 rpg, 6.1 apg, 19.5 PER

-SG, Tracy McGrady 2002-03: 32.1 ppg, .457 FG%, 6.5 rpg, 5.5 apg, 30.3 PER

-SF, Grant Hill 2004-05: 19.7 ppg, .509 FG%, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg, 20.0 PER

-PF, Rashard Lewis 2007-08: 18.2 ppg, .455 FG%, 5.4 rpg, 2.4 apg,  16.7 PER

-C, Dwight Howard 2008-09: 20.6 ppg, .572 FG%, 13.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 25.4 PER

2.    Atlanta Hawks: 2008-09 was a very nice season for the Hawks.  Atlanta won their most games (47) since 1997-98 and their first playoff series since 1998-99.  The Hawks were a relatively solid team both offensively and defensively, without being great at anything.  In keeping with that theme, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford were all good without being great.  Management also chipped in by re-signing their free agents, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, and Zaza Pachulia.  The Hawks have also added Jamal Crawford (in place of Flip Murray) and Joe Smith to keep Atlanta in line with last season.

A key issue to keep an eye on here is the improvement of Josh Smith.  Smith looked like the potential star but he regressed in nearly every area in 2008-09.  Smith was still good and he shot a career high .492% from the field but his boards, assists, and blocks all fell.  Whether this was the result of a plan to reduce errors (Smith committed fewer fouls, shot less, and had fewer turnovers) or just bad luck, the trends was not good.  The Hawks will need Smith to be the defensive presence and rebounding presence he was his first few years if they want to try to take the leap to 50 wins.  Atlanta probably won’t make this leap but another season like 2008-09 is quite plausible.

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Jason Terry 2001-02: 19.3 ppg, .430 FG%, 3.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 19.2 PER

-SG, Joe Johnson 2008-09: 21.4 ppg, .437 FG%, 4.4 rpg, 5.7 apg, 18.2 PER

-SF, Shareef Abdur-Rahim 2002-03: 19.9 ppg, .478 FG%, 8.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 20.0 PER

-PF, Josh Smith 2007-08: 17.2 ppg, .457 FG%, 8.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 19.0 PER

-C, Dikembe Mutombo 1999-00: 11.5 ppg, .562 FG%, 14.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 19.4 PER

3.    Miami Heat: The Heat are playing a dangerous game.  They have a stripped down roster of Dwyane Wade and some reasonably useful players with cap friendly contracts.  So, the Heat have to accomplish a number of goals: (1) compete sufficiently in 2008-09 to keep Wade happy, (2) re-sign Wade at the end of the year, and (3) sign someone else to help Wade.  The Heat are a decent team with a good defense and below average offense. While they have Wade, who had a year that fits into Michael Jordan’s stable, the rest of the roster can’t score.  The current starting line up features Wade and guys like Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, and Jermaine O’Neal and not much off the bench.  Of the non-Wade portion of the roster, only Beasley can score at all and he’s had problems of other kinds.

The mere presence of Wade makes us want to think that the Heat can surpass the other mediocre playoff teams but the second-line talent is a bit thin.  Granted, this won’t preclude the Heat from perhaps acquiring a big name during the season (Pat Riley routinely makes such deals) but the roster, as currently constituted is a .500 club.  If the Heat struggle, however, they could find themselves with tons of cap room but with Wade out the door.

All-2000s Teams:

-PG, Tim Hardaway 1999-00: 13.4 ppg, .386 FG%, 2.6 rpg, 6.3 apg, 16.4 PER

-SG, Dwyane Wade 2008-09: 30.2 ppg, .491 FG%, 5.0 rpg, 7.5 apg, 30.4 PER

-SF, Lamar Odom 2003-04: 17.1 ppg, .430 FG%, 9.7 rpg, 4.1 apg, 18.5 PER

-PF, Anthony Mason 2000-01: 16.1 ppg, .505 FG%, 7.9 rpg, 4.2 apg, 17.4 PER

-C, Shaquille O’Neal 2004-05: 22.9 ppg, .601 FG%, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 27.0 PER

4.    Washington Wizards: The Wiz were not actually as bad as they looked last year.  With tons of injuries, Washington’s four-year run of being a decent playoff team came to an abrupt end.  The Wiz looked pretty awful but injuries didn’t help.  Gilbert Arenas missed 80 games, Brendan Haywood missed 76 games, DeShawn Stevenson missed 50 games, and Caron Butler missed 15 games.  Meanwhile, the remaining Wiz looked decent.  Antawn Jamison was his usual great self and young players JaVale Mcgee and Andray Blatche were promising.  The rest of the players were horrible.  Mike James played a lot and not very well and the other main players (Dominic McGuire and Nick Young) were ineffective.  The result was a team that was bad offensively and even worse defensively.

Despite the struggles, management has apparently decided that they are close enough to double down and go for it.  The top five draft pick (the reward for a crappy 2008-09) was traded to Minnesota for depth (Mike Miller and Randy Foye) and the team is hoping for a return to form from the injured players (particularly Arenas) and that Jamison (now 33) ages gracefully.  The entire plan is not particularly ambitious.  If everything breaks right, the Wiz could win 45-50 games and maybe get to the second round where Orlando, Boston, or Cleveland would wax them.  If, however, Arenas hurts his knee again or Jamison declines more quickly than expected the Wiz could be terrible again and are locked into to huge contracts to Arenas and Jamison.  Moreover, the Wiz have traded a pretty high draft pick for Miller and Foye, who are nothing more than decent bench players at this point.  Such low ceiling/high risk tactics make little sense to me but that’s the Wiz for you.

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Gilbert Arenas 2006-07: 28.4 ppg, .418 FG%, 4.6 rpg, 6.0 apg, 24.0 PER

-SG, Larry Hughes 2004-05: 22.0 ppg, .430 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 4.7 apg, 21.6 PER

-SF, Michael Jordan 2001-02: 22.9 ppg, .416 FG%, 5.7 rpg, 5.2 apg, 20.8 PER

-PF, Antawn Jamison 2008-09: 22.2 ppg, .468 FG%, 8.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 20.6 PER

-C, Brendan Haywood 2007-08: 10.6 ppg, .528 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 0.9 apg, 18.3 PER

5.    Charlotte Bobcats: 2008-09 was the best season in Bobcat history.  Led by Larry Brown, Charlotte played strong defensively and won a franchise best 35 wins.  Now the bad news…the Bobcats were a terrible offensive team and just traded their best low post player Emeka Okafor for a Tyson Chandler, who can defend well, is not healthy, and can’t score.  The trade was also an indicator that Charlotte is looking to save money (Chandler has a shorter deal) and not to necessarily to make a push to the playoffs.  Now, Charlotte has some nice defenders in Chandler and Gerald Wallace but very few scorers.  Indeed, Brown has loaded up on solid pros with at best average offensive skills so far (D.J. Augustin, Boris Diaw, Raymond Felton, Raja Bell, DeSagana Diop).  The only scorers on the roster now are Wallace and Vlad Radmanovic, who played poorly last year and isn’t an ideal Larry Brown player.

Can the Bobcats make the playoffs?  It’s not impossible but the balance of the roster is so skewed that it’ll be tough.  The Bobcats need points and the main hope to improve in that regard is from Radmanovic (who hopefully won’t shoot as poorly as he did last year) and the young backcourt of Felton and Augustin (Bell, the previous starter, is likely to miss major time with a wrist injury).  Felton, unfortunately, has shown little improvement offensively in his four years in the NBA.  In fact, his scoring rates have declined slightly each season.  Augustin has looked a bit more effective offensively so he is where any theoretical improvement may come from.  In the end, there are just not enough points for the Bobcats to seriously contend for a playoff spot.

All-2000s Team

-PG, Brevin Knight 2005-06: 12.6 ppg, .399 FG%, 3.2 rpg, 8.8 apg, 17.3 PER

-SG, Jason Richardson 2007-08: 21.8 ppg, .441 FG%, 5.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 18.4 PER

-SF, Gerald Wallace 2006-07: 18.1 ppg, .502 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 19.8 PER

-PF, Emeka Okafor 2006-07: 14.4 ppg, .532 FG%, 11.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 20.1 PER

-C, Primoz Brezec 2004-05: 13.0 ppg, .512 FG%, 7.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 16.1 PER

1.    Cleveland Cavaliers:    By most accounts, the Cavs seemed to be the best team in 2008-09.  They had the most wins, the best expected won-loss record, and the best player in the NBA.  Alas, things fell apart against Orlando when Dwight Howard dominated them enough to knock off a 66-win team.  The Cavs are back with substantially the same team, with the exception Shaquille O’Neal, who they hope can annoy Howard enough to slightly negate this edge.  Going forward, the Cavs look to be in great shape.  LeBron James is still the best player in the NBA and the only older players on the roster are Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who will be splitting time at center. 

Last year, we noted that teams that win over 65-games tend to decline slightly the next season.  But even if this is the case, this team is quite good and obviously championship caliber.  The interesting thing is here is how good LeBron’s team was when its star was so young.  Most of the inner circle Hall of Famers had their best team season when they were near the traditional peak ages (26-28 years old).  Check out a sampling of the big stars in NBA history: 

-LeBron James (age 24), 2008-09 Cavaliers (66-16)

-Bill Russell (age 30), 1964-65 Celtics (62-18)

-Larry Bird (age 29), 1985-86 Celtics (67-15)

-Michael Jordan (age 32), 1995-96 Bulls (72-10)

-Magic Johnson (age 27)/Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (age 39), 1986-87 Lakers (67-15)

-Julius Erving (age 32), 1982-83 76ers (65-17)

-Wilt Chamberlain (age 35)/Jerry West (age 33), 1971-72 Lakers (69-13)

-Elgin Baylor (age 34), 1968-69 Lakers (55-27)

-Shaquille O’Neal (age 27), 1999-00 Lakers (67-15)

-Hakeem Olajuwon (age 31), 1993-94 Rockets (58-24)

-Tim Duncan (age 29), 2005-06 Spurs (63-19)

-Karl Malone (age 33)/John Stockton (age 34), 1996-97 Jazz (64-18)

-Oscar Robertson (age 32), 1970-71 Bucks (66-16) 

As can be seen, none of the perceived inner circle Hall of Famers experienced huge success until their prime or even their decline years.  It’s not clear if this means that LeBron may eventually have more team success than he did in 2008-09, whether James’ success is an outlier, or whether the above trend has no real meaning.  Regardless, James and the Cavs are the best team in the East and should be able to beat Orlando and get to the Finals.  

All-2000s Team

-PG, Andre Miller 2001-02: 16.5 ppg, .454 FG%, 4.7 rpg, 10.9 apg, 21.8 PER

-SG, Wesley Person 2001-02: 15.1 ppg, .495 FG%, 3.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 16.3 PER

-SF, LeBron James 2008-09: 28.4 ppg, .489 FG%, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 31.7 PER

-PF, Carlos Boozer 2003-04: 15.5 ppg, .523 FG%, .11.4 rpg, 2.0 apg, 20.8 PER

-C, Zydrunas Ilgauskas 2005-06: 15.6 ppg, .506 FG%, 7.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 21.9 PER 

2.    Chicago Bulls:    Of any non-Cav team in the division, the Bulls are, by far, the most interesting.  They continue to be a fun team with nice young players but the nature of the team’s style of play has changed considerably.  Whereas in the Scott Skiles days, the Bulls were a great defensive team that tried to score just enough to get by, the 2008-09 Bulls were a decent offensive team but were even worse defensively than the team that imploded in 2007-08.  The Bulls have plenty of young talent (in particular Derrick Rose) and cap room for 2010 off season.  It’s a great position to be in but there is a murmur that coach Vinny Del Negro may not be the guy to get the Bulls to the next level (Peter Vecsey just reported that a bad start may get Del Negro fired).  

So, Del Negro must improve this team both offensively and defensively this coming season.  But there is room for improvement on all ends.  Rose who looked like a weak defender as a rookie may improve, Luol Deng missed a lot of time with injury, and Brad Miller and John Salmons will be on the team for a full season.  The Bulls also have a chance to sign a big name this off-season (Dwayne Wade?) and they have to figure out what to do with Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas, who are duplicative talents on a team that could use a banger to complement their offensive players.  In all, this is a team that could take another step forward but isn’t likely to be great.  Expect another 40-45 win season and a chance to make a major move at the trading deadline or in the off-season. 

As an aside, we do all wonder how good will Derrick Rose be?  It’s not clear yet but he does seem really advanced for a 20-year old.  Here’s a list of most of the 20-year old point guards we’ve seen in the NBA.  Rose isn’t at the top of the list but his ability at age-20 is an indication that he’s pretty much a lock to be an All-Star at some point in his career:

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Kirk Hinrich 2006-07: 16.6 ppg, .448 FG%, 3.4 rpg, 6.3 apg, 17.0 PER

-SG, Ben Gordon 2006-07: 21.4 ppg, .455 FG%, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg, 18.2 PER

-SF, Luol Deng 2006-07: 18.8 ppg, .517 FG%, 7.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 18.7 PER

-PF, Elton Brand 1999-00: 20.1 ppg, .482 FG%, 10.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 20.6 PER

-C, Tyson Chandler 2004-05: 8.0 ppg, .494 FG%, 9.7 rpg, 0.8 apg, 16.4 PER 

3.    Detroit Pistons:    Joe Dumars may have made some legendary moves this decade but he’s ending it with some head scratchers.  Faced with an aging core and wanting to avoid rebuilding from the bottom up, Dumars made the defensible decision to tear down some of the foundation.  The decision seemed a little premature but not crazy or clearly wrong.  The problem was that the actual rebuilding plan seems a little off so far.  It was inconsistent to trade Chauncey Billups for cap room and also sign Rip Hamilton to a long term extension.  It was not evident why the Pistons wanted to keep the Hamilton, who wasn’t as vital to the team as Billups and would require a longer term cash outlay.  

The cash freed up in the Billups deal was then used to sign Ben Gordon and  Charlie Villanueva.  Going forward, that leaves the Pistons with a core of: Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton and Gordon in the backcourt and Tayshaun Prince, Villanueva, Maxiell, and room for possibly one more big signing short term  (assuming Hamilton or Prince aren’t traded).  It remains to be seen if Stuckey will end up being a good NBA player (or a point guard even if he is good) and there is a distinct lack of stars in this core.  This is not a bad team but it the rebuilding process is hard to sniff out at this point.  On the bright side, Gordon and Villanueva should help an offense that struggled last year but will do nothing for the defense that suddenly become mediocre.  Short term, this is a .500 team.  Long term, the Pistons will have to sign a big name to make the rest of this roster look good.  The ball is in Dumars’ court.  He generally has come through but you could understand if Pistons fans are a little worried. 

All-2000s Team: 

-PG, Chauncey Billups 2007-08: 17.0 ppg, .448 FG%, 2.7, rpg, 6.8 apg, 23.6 PER

-SG, Jerry Stackhouse 2000-01: 29.8 ppg, .402 FG%, 3.9 rpg, 5.1 apg, 21.8 PER

-SF, Grant Hill 1999-00: 25.8 ppg, .489 FG%, 6.6 rpg, 5.2 apg, 24.5 PER

-PF, Rasheed Wallace 2005-06: 15.1 ppg, .430 FG%, 6.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 17.6 PER

-C, Ben Wallace 2001-02: 7.6 ppg, .531 FG%, 13.0 rpg, 1.4 apg, 18.6 PER 

4.    Indiana Pacers:    Let’s see, a team that runs a lot (3rd in pace in the NBA) and shoots a ton of threes (4th in the NBA), and scores a bunch (5th in the NBA in points).  Despite all the points, the Pacers weren’t actually a good offensive team and they weren’t particularly fun to watch.  Since the stacked Pacers team of the mid-2000s have fallen apart, Indiana has put together a team that isn’t cheap or very good.  Aside from plucking Danny Granger, there isn’t much to like on this roster.  The current line up features T.J. Ford, Granger, Mike Dunleavy (if he’s healthy), Troy Murphy, and Jeff Foster.  Ford, Murphy, and Foster all are still useful but playing them together creates a team without any particular strengths and a very thin bench to boot.  The playoffs are not impossible here but the absence of any great players indicates that Indiana will probably be in the mid-30s in wins and outside of the playoffs. 

All-2000s Team 

-PG, Mark Jackson 1999-00: 8.1 ppg, .432 FG%, 3.7 rpg, 8.0 apg, 17.7 PER

-SG, Reggie Miller 2000-01: 18.9 ppg, .440 FG%, 3.5 rpg, 3.2 apg, 17.3 PER

-SF, Danny Granger 2008-09: 25.8 ppg, .447 FG%, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 21.8 PER

-PF, Ron Artest 2003-04: 18.3 ppg, .421 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 18.2 PER

-C, Jermaine O’Neal 2002-03: 20.8 ppg, .484 FG%, 10.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 21.4 PER 

5.    Milwaukee Bucks:    Bringing in Scott Skiles definitely worked on some level.  The Bucks, who had been among the worst defensive teams in the NBA for years, actually were a respectable 15th in efficiency.  The problem is the offense regressed a little and their best offensive player, Michael Redd, suffered a major knee injury.  The Bucks then sent the off-season letting go two of their best young players (Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva) for nothing and also trading Richard Jefferson for cap relief.  Milwaukee still has Andrew Bogut, who has established himself as an above-average center and Redd is coming back.  But Redd is already 30 and was declining from his peak even before the injury.  The Bucks have replaced Sessions, Villanueva, and RJ, with assorted trinkets (Carlos Delfino, Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova) that aren’t bad aren’t likely to be improvements either.  I’m also very skeptical that Skiles will be a fan of first-round draft choice Brandon Jennings, a raw shoot-first lead guard.  Put this altogether and the Bucks are clearly the worst team in the division and the only team without a solid shot at the playoffs.

All-2000s Team

-PG, Sam Cassell 2002-03: 19.7 ppg, .470 FG%, 4.4 rpg 5.8 apg, 22.3 PER

-SG, Ray Allen 2000-01: 22.0 ppg, .480 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 4.6 apg, 22.1 PER

-SF, Glenn Robinson 2000-01: 22.0 ppg, .468 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 20.1 PER

-PF, Charlie Villanueva 2008-09: 16.2 ppg, .447 FG%, 6.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 18.6 PER

-C, Andrew Bogut 2007-08: 14.3 ppg, .511 FG%, 9.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 17.5 PER

1.    Boston Celtics:     Maybe I’m a pessimist but I’ve always viewed the current Celtics core as on borrowed time.  They were better than I realized in 2007-08 and while they regressed a bit last year, they were still quite good (and might’ve repeated but for Kevin Garnett’s injury).  Of course things like that happen when you get older.  Injuries aside, the key difference between the 2007-08 Celts and the 2008-09 was defense.  Boston went for an otherworldly and NBA best 98.2 defensive rating (points per 100 possessions) to a very good 102.3 rating in 2008-09 (second overall).  Can the Celts get back to the 2007-08 defensive level?  Well, Garnett is older but they still have some nice young defenders in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins, not to mention assistant coach and defensive architect Tom Thibodeau.  But it’s not clear that such great defense is sustainable long term.  Since 1979-80, over 20 teams have racked up a defensive numbers under 100.0.  The vast majority of these teams declined the next year and declined even further the following season. 

The notable exceptions to this rule:

-The 2002-03 Pistons had a 99.9 rating and hit a ridiculous 95.4 the following season before declining the next three seasons.

-The Tim Duncan Spurs were under 100.0 every season from TD’s rookie year (1997-98) until 2007-08.  In that span, the Spurs stayed under 100.0 but only improved their defensive rating on a year-to-year basis in 1998-99, 2000-01, and 2003-04.

-The Nets of 2001-02 (99.5), 2002-03 (98.1), and 2003-04 (98.0) are the only team since 1980 to improve its defense in three consecutive years while also staying under 100.0 each season.  

Turning back to the Celts, it’s not impossible that they get back under 100.0 in 2009-10 but it’s not probable, particularly with the likely decline of the aging stars.  Boston should still be pretty good.  They’ll win the Atlantic handily and have an outside chance of beating the top two teams in the conference but they are not the title favorites anymore. 

All-2000s team:

-PG, Rajon Rondo 2008-09: 11.9 ppg, .505 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 8.2 apg, 18.8 PER

-SG, Ray Allen 2008-09: 18.2 ppg, .480 FG%, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 17.3 PER

-SF, Paul Pierce 2005-06: 26.8 ppg, .471 FG%, 6.7 rpg, 4.7 apg, 23.6 PER

-PF, Kevin Garnett 2007-08: 18.8 ppg, .539 FG%, 9.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 25.3 PER

-C, Raef LaFrentz 2004-05: 11.1 ppg, .496 FG%, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 17.3 PER 

2.    Philadelphia 76ers:  The Sixers are in a very weird place.  They looked to have the move of last off-season when they poached Elton Brand to add to a solid young core.  Instead, it was a disaster.  Brand looked sluggish and out of place with Philly’s running attack with Andre Miller and the team slumped.  After Brand’s injury, interim coach Tony DiLeo went back to running and the team finished strong and did as well against the Magic as one could reasonably expected in the playoffs (losing in six games).  After the playoffs, the players, for the most part, only expressed how much they didn’t like DiLeo.  DiLeo was an administrative guy so we wouldn’t expect him back regardless of how well he coached but it seemed strange to blame him when the team played much better under his leadership.  Miller, their best player, is now gone to Portland and the Sixers are hoping to replace him internally with Louis Williams.  They also have a new coach in former Wizards coach Eddie Jordan, a running based coach himself. 

Philly is not a bad team but it’s not quite clear what they are building towards.  I guess the hope is that they get just enough out of Williams at the point to support a decent front court of Brand, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young.  This is not a bad core but the line up is not well balanced.  They shot a rather gross .318% from three, despite shooting over 500 less attempts than opponents.  Philly made up for this by making a ton of free throws and keeping opponents off the line.  If Philadelphia does nothing to its roster, the Sixers are good enough to stay around .500 and be a decent lower rung playoff team.  I think the move here is to trade excess frontcourt to fix the backcourt.  In this case, the likely candidate is Young, who is talented and cheap but is sure to earn a big deal and does not rebound enough to supplant Brand in the short term (only 5.3 rebs/36 minutes) or Iguodala, the team’s star at small forward. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Andre Miller 2007-08: 17.0 ppg, .492 FG%, 4.0 rpg, 6.9 apg, 18.4 PER

-SG, Allen Iverson 2005-06: 33.0 ppg, .447 FG%, 3.2 rpg, 7.4 apg, 25.9 PER

-SF, Andre Iguodala 2007-08: 19.9 ppg, .456 FG%, 5.4 rpg, 4.8 apg, 19.0 PER

-PF, Chris Webber 2005-06: 20.2 ppg, .434 FG%, 9.9 rpg, 3.4 apg, 18.4 PER

-C, Dikembe Mutombo 2001-02:11.5 ppg, .501 FG%, 10.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 16.0 PER 

3.    Toronto Raptors:    Toronto is a team in flux.  Bryan Colangelo is feeling pressure to field a good enough team to entice Chris Bosh to stay in town right at the time when their reasonably good team is falling apart at the seams.  Toronto was decent enough both offensively and defensively the prior two season but in 2008-09, they were poor in both categories.  Given this general failure, it’s not clear that a single bold move can fix the problem.  The Raptors plan seems to be: 

-Hope Bosh and Jose Calderon stay healthy and continue to play well

-Hope Andrea Bargnani develops into a good player

-Hope Hedo Turkoglu is the missing piece to generally lift Toronto back to the playoffs

-Fill in the roster with some decent role players (Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Marco Belinelli, Amir Johnson) and DeMar DeRozan 

Toronto’s plan is not ridiculous but it does seem to have some fatal flaws.  On a most basic level, Bargnani and Turkoglu are not that good and are unlikely to lift the Raptors to the 50-win plateau.  Looking at Bargnani’s rate stats, we see a decent player who can score.  The hope that he’ll be the next Dirk Nowitzki is unfounded.  Bargnani will be 24 this year and has not developed quickly.  By way of comparison, at age-23, Dirk scored 23.4 ppg and had 9.9 rpg while Bargnani had 15.4 ppg and 5.3 rpg.  If we were to see a big leap forward, it would’ve shown up the stats.  Meanwhile, Turkoglu is 30 and, despite some nice playoff moments, was thoroughly average (and actually worse overall in the playoffs).  

What we have here is not a happy year for the Raps.  They will be on the fringes of the playoffs in short term but are stuck with a ton of money invested in Bargnani and Turkoglu long term.  This team, as currently constituted, is a 40ish win team.  There is a good shot, however, that Colangelo cashes in Bosh if he believes that there is no way to re-sign him.  If that is the case, Toronto falls down to New York/New Jersey level. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Jose Calderon 2007-08: 11.2 ppg, .519 FG%, 2.9 rpg, 8.3 apg, 20.5 PER

-SG, Tracy McGrady 1999-00: 15.4 ppg, .451 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 20.0 PER

-SF, Vince Carter 2000-01: 27.6 ppg, .460 FG%, 5.5 rpg, 3.9 gp, 25.0 PER

-PF, Chris Bosh 2007-08: 22.3 ppg, .494 FG%, 8.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, 23.8 PER

-C, Antonio Davis 2000-01: 13.7 ppg, .433 FG%, 10.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 16.5 PER 

4.    New York Knicks:    Progress is relative.  The Knicks of 2008-09 were a marked improvement over the circus that existed in New York the last few years.  The Knicks had a coherent plan, a coach with a system and strategy, and a general sense that the Knicks mattered and knew what they were doing.  Of course, the team still isn’t good and the present doesn’t matter as much as clearing cap room and getting good players for next decade.  While the Knicks looked okay on the court last season, they were bad defensively (23rd) and, surprisingly, below average offensively too (17th), though the offensive problems were disguised by the frenetic pace. 

Going into 2009-10, not much has changed.  They have the same guys who can run and chuck but they were killed by bigger opponents, being out hot blocked by 230, out rebounded by over 300, and giving up .480% shooting.  In fact, the Knicks had over 100 less blocks than the second worst shot blocking team (Milwaukee) and the Knicks’ 204 block were the fewest for a team we could find in a non-lockout NBA season since the stat was first tracked back in 1973-74.  The hope is that Darko Milicic and Jordan Hill provide some help on the low post to allow the Knicks to make a playoff run.  While it’s realistic to expect the Knicks to be in the mix, adding a decent rookie and Darko isn’t quite going to be enough to get a core of Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes, Al Harrington, and David Lee into the playoffs.  This is just a placeholder for the future and not so deep down, management and the fans know this.  Expect another team year of mid-30s in wins and hope Donnie Walsh figures out some way to dump Eddy Curry or Jared Jefferies for cap relief. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Stephon Marbury 2004-05: 21.7 ppg, .462 FG%, 3.0 rpg, 8.1 apg, 21.9 PER

-SG, Allan Houston 2002-03: 22.5 ppg, .445 FG%, 2.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 17.7 PER

-SF, Latrell Sprewell 1999-00: 18.6 ppg, .435 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 15.7 PER

-PF, Kurt Thomas 2002-03: 14.0 ppg, .483 FG%, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 16.7 PER

-C, Marcus Camby 2000-01: 12.0 ppg, .524 FG%, 11.5 rpg, 0.8 apg, 20.9 PER

5.    New Jersey Nets:    The Nets are sort of in the same willful rebuilding mode as the Knicks but they have other issues that New York does not.  The Nets rebuild has had some nice moments: trading Jason Kidd for the better Devin Harris, drafting Brook Lopez, and getting a nice young shooting guard in Courtney Lee.  But there have been some ugly moments, namely trading Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian and pretending that Yi might be a viable starter.  A fan of the Nets can’t take issue with starting over and trying to save money but dumping RJ for pretty much nothing?  Having a ridiculously bad front court?  One would hope they could do better than Bobby Simmons and Yi.  The irony is that with even an average frontcourt, the Nets might’ve been in the playoffs last season.  But sneaking into the playoffs, while nice, doesn’t address the larger problems about the financial future of the franchise. 

It appeared that Bruce Ratner was out of capital last year to invest in payroll or to keep the long talked about move to Brooklyn alive.  Alas some hope is coming in Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, who should be around to fund the move and, perhaps, raise payroll.  In the short term, the Nets look quite good with Harris, Lee, and Lopez but the lack of forwards will keep this team lottery bound.  On the bright side, the team will have a ton of cap room this summer, a rich owner, and portions of a good lineup.  Without real forwards, the Nets will struggle but the focus, again, is rightly about 2010 and beyond. 

All-2000s Team:

-PG, Jason Kidd 2002-03: 18.7 ppg, .414 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 8.9 apg, 22.2 PER

-SG, Vince Carter 2006-07: 23.8 ppg, .454 FG%, 5.7 rpg, 4.5 apg, 21.8 PER

-SF, Richard Jefferson 2005-06: 19.5 ppg, .493 FG%, 6.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 18.9 PER

-PF, Kenyon Martin 2003-04: 16.7 ppg, .488 FG%, 9.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 18.7 PER

-C, Brook Lopez 2008-09: 13.0 ppg, .531 FG%, 8.1 rpg, 1.0 apg, 17.9 PER

Eastern Conference

1.    Cavaliers v. Pistons:    There is not a ton to say here.  The Cavs are ascendant at precisely the moment the Pistons have run out of gas.  Even when the Pistons were playing near their best in they had problems with LeBron James in the playoffs.  James and a much weaker Cavs team took the Pistons to the brink in 2005-06 and upset Detroit in 2006-07.  Now, the Pistons have little left, just average defensively and well below average offensively.  Expect Detroit to be nothing more than a speed bump to the Cleveland Express.  Looking for a bright side Piston fans?  Detroit was first in the NBA in attendance this year.  Prediction: Cavaliers win 4-0. 

When they last met…As we reminded you above, the Pistons and Cavs met in 2006-07 in the Conference Finals.  The Pistons were huge favorites but James took over and won Game 5 in Detroit by scoring 48 points.  A weird fun fact about Cleveland-Detroit is that the franchises had never met in the playoffs prior to the LeBron match ups in 2005-06 and 2006-07.  You would’ve thought they had a playoff match up in the 1980s when the Cavs were potential contender but it didn’t happen.  This is, of course, because Cleveland kept losing to the Michael Jordan Bulls when Detroit was next. 

2.    Celtics v. Bulls:    It really stinks that Boston won’t have its full squad to attack Orlando and Cleveland.  Without Kevin Garnett, the Celts are not a great team.  In the short term, they’ve somehow ended up playing really well without KG but we are quite skeptical that they can keep it up in the playoffs.  Even with the injuries, the Celts are well-coaches and a very good defensive team.  The Bulls are not a great match up for Boston.  They have some good young players and a strong back court, that can potentially match Boston’s strengths.  Derrick Rose isn’t a star yet but he could give Rajon Rondo a tough go.  Similarly, John Salmons and Ben Gordon are not better than Paul Pierce and Ray Allen but they are good enough to annoy them.  Ultimately, the Celts are bruising up front, have home court, and enough scorers to win this thing.  Prediction:  Celtics win 4-1. 

When they last met…The last meeting of the Bulls and Celts came in the first round of the 1986-87 playoffs.  This was not the famous series where the Jordan scored 63 points on Boston.  Instead, the same teams met in first round the next season too with basically the same players.  The Bulls were again swept by Boston, only this time without a legendary performance.  If you are interested in incremental improvement, the 1985-86 Bulls were outscored by Boston by 41 over the 1985-86 series and only by 24 in 1986-87. 

3.    Magic v. 76ers:    This not a great match up for Philadelphia.  The 76ers remain a slower paced team that is more defensive in its orientation.  This is exactly the style the Magic like to play, only they do it much better.  The Sixers have some nice players in Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala but the Magic will have the luxury of packing in the paint and daring Philly to beat them from the outside.  The Sixers can’t shoot the three at all (.318% as a team) and trying to drive on Dwight Howard is not a recipe for success.  The Sixers are looking to hope from last year, where they looked like a poor match up for Detroit, another slow defensive team, and actually won a few games.  Prediction:  Magic win 4-1. 

When they last met…Philly and Orlando only met once before.  The year was 1998-99 and the Sixers were an improving team with Larry Brown and a young Allen Iverson matched up against an Orlando team that overachieved under Chuck Daly.  The Magic went 33-17 despite the fact that their only star Penny Hardaway, was injured and in a serious decline.  Daly put together a great defensive team by utilizing Darrell Armstrong, who scored quite well, and led the third best defense in the NBA.  Come playoff time, the Magic’s lack of offense and athleticism killed them, as they lost 3-1 to Philly and didn’t break 91 points in a game.  On the other end, AI averaged 33.3 ppg in the three wins and had 13 points in the only Sixers loss. 

4.    Hawks v. Heat:    The most interesting first round game in the East seems like a toss up.  Atlanta is a deeper team that has played Miami very well.  Their bevy of big athletes do a better job on Dwyane Wade than most.  On the other hand, it’s hard to bet against a healthy Wade in any playoff series.  In crunching the numbers, neither team has any serious advantage.  They both rebound, pass, and block at about the same rate.  The lone advantage to identify is that the Hawks’ shoot and the defend the three better and the Heat have not defended behind the line very well.  Despite these facts, I can’t help but think that Wade has played so well that he can have a dominant game in Atlanta and steal home court.  The series is a tossup but we believe Wade tips the scales Miami’s way.  Prediction:  Heat win 4-2. 

When they last met…The Heat and Hawks have met once previously.  In 1993-94, the Hawks were an unlikely one seed behind Kevin Willis, Mookie Blaylock, and Dominique Wilkins.  The Hawks traded the older Nique for Danny Manning and held onto the one seed (though Wilkins had played much better offensively than Manning).  They met an eight seed Heat team with some nice young players (Steve Smith, Glen Rice, Grant Long, Rony Seikaly).  Despite going 1-3 against the Hawks, Miami stole Game 1 in Atlanta and went up 2-1, including a memorable brawl where Long tried to strangle Duane Ferrell because Ferrell taunted him (pointed a finger right in Long’s face) after a score and he foul. The side match between Keith Askins and Doug Edwards was also one of the more substantive NBA fights I’ve seen (even though neither guy really played in the actual game).  The Hawks came back form the brink and won the next two games by double digits.  

Round 2 Predictions 

-Cavaliers over Heat, 4-1

-Magic over Celtics, 4-1 

Eastern Conference Finals 

-Cavaliers over Magic, 4-2 

Western Conference 

1.    Lakers v. Jazz:    It was only last year that the Jazz gave the Lakers a tough run in the second round.  This year, things are different.  Well, the Lakers are pretty much the same, they’re still the class of the West.  It’s the Jazz that are different.  They can’t win any road games and Carlos Boozer is not the happy-go-lucky player he was in 2007-08.  The Jazz are very good for an eight seed.  With a little luck they’d be in the hunt but they can’t win on the road, can’t really stick Kobe, and they are outgunned in the front court, assuming Andrew Bynum is as healthy as he’s looked the last week.  Sure, the Lakers have no answer for Deron Williams but the Jazz just have too many other questions.  Prediction:  Lakers win 4-1. 

When they last met…Yes, just last year, when the Lakers won 4-2.  Historically, the Lakers and Jazz are 2-2 against each other.  The first meeting came in 1987-88 when a young Stockton and Malone took Magic Johnson seven games before losing in the second round.  Stockton-Malone met up in back-to-back years with the Lakers in 1996-97 and 1997-98.  This time the Lakers had Shaq and a young Kobe Bryant.  The Jazz handled the Lakers handily both times.  The 1996-97 series is best remembered for Del Harris giving a raw rookie Kobe to shoot in the fourth quarter and Kobe putting up multiple air balls.  It was a little soon for Kobe at that point. 

2.    Nuggets v. Hornets:    Like with Wade against the Hawks, we are faced with a case of the best player being on the team with less talent.  In this case, however, Denver has some pretty good firepower at the point.  As good as Chris Paul is, he’s going to have some problems defending Chauncey Billups in the post.  Up front, the Hornets have no answer for Carmelo Anthony and I think Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris Andersen will be a problem for the Hornets front court.  Paul could go crazy and win this series but it’s a tough road.  Moreover, Denver is one of the better home teams in the NBA, which should be enough for Melo to get his first series victory.  Prediction:  Nuggets win 4-2. 

When they last met…The teams have never met before, as the Hornets haven’t been in the Western Conference very long. 

3.    Spurs v. Mavericks:    While everyone was down on the Mavs most of the year because of some questionable trades and the fact that they languished near the eight seed, they are still a good team playing some of their best ball.  The Spurs, however, have no Manu Ginobili and there are questions whether Tim Duncan is near 100%.  In terms of team strengths, the Mavs are nice scoring team with decent defense, while the Spurs are nice defensive team with decent offense.  The teams are also chock full of mismatches: Duncan v. Erick Dampier, Dirk Nowitzki v. Michael Finley, et al, Tony Parker v. Jason Terry/Jason Kidd.  If Ginobili were healthy, the Spurs would win in a tough series.  Now, things are really tough for the Spurs.  Still, the Mavs are far from invincible and we believe that a healthy Duncan is still the difference between the two team.  Prediction:  Spurs wins 4-3. 

When they last met…The Mavs and Spurs had one of the best series of the 2000s in the 2006-07 second round.  The Spurs ended up blowing a lead in Game 7 at home when Dirk Nowitzki dunked and was fouled by Ginobili (an absolutely boneheaded foul on a breakaway).  I doubt this year’s series will be quite as a good but it definitely will be as competitive. 

4.    Blazers v. Rockets:    This is an interesting series because we knew both teams would be good but not quite this good.  No one knew that Brandon Roy would develop into a star or that the Rockets would continue to play so well without Tracy McGrady being Tracy McGrady.  Portland is a very unique team.  They were the slowest paced team in the NBA but had the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA (but were a decent 13th in defensive efficiency).  The Rockets are also slow pace but are defensive based (4th in defensive efficiency and 15th in offensively).  The Rockets don’t block shots much outside of Yao Ming but they have Ron Artest and a host of good defenders all of the court.  As an aside, Rick Adelman doesn’t get enough credit for not only winning but coaching this team with a system that is counterintuitive to his preferred style of play.  

In the end, the Blazers have a lot of factors in their favor: 

-Both teams are great home teams but Portland has home court advantage.

-Portland has the players to match up with Yao in Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.

-If Yao doesn’t play great, it’s an open question whether Houston can score enough points to win the series. 

Based on these facts, I think Portland takes a tough series and are now a year ahead of where we all expected on the rebuilding plan.  Prediction: Portland wins 4-3. 

When they last met…Despite the fact that both teams were regular playoff participants in the 1980s and 1990s, Portland and Houston did not often meet up.  The last time they were matched up was in 1993-94, when Houston was a two seed with Hakeem Olajuwon.  Portland was a declining seven seed, two years removed from the NBA Finals, being coached by Adelman.  The Blazers still had Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Buck Williams, and Clifford Robinson but they were not quite as tough.  Olajuwon smoked the Blazers and knocked them off 3-1.  The Rockets went on to win the title and Portland promptly canned Adelman. 

Round 2 Predictions 

-Lakers over Blazers, 4-3

-Spurs over Nuggets, 4-2 

Western Conference Finals 

-Lakers over Spurs, 4-1 

NBA Finals 

-Cavaliers over Lakers, 4-2

The Celtics will win. Not really a newsflash, but this is a team that put up some wildly good numbers in both wins and point differential. Their top competition is a Pistons team coached by a guy whose teams have never overachieved and have often underachieved in several playoff runs. There’s a good, but hardly great Orlando team and the defending champ Cavaliers going through a down year. The rest of the East field isn’t really worth mentioning. This will be fairly easy for Boston.

As compelling as the West has been this season, there isn’t a truly great team in the bunch. Any of the 8 playoff teams could emerge as champ and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Because of this, logic might say that the Celtics should be favored to win the championship. After all the Eastern playoffs should be like a walk in the park and they’ll be refreshed and ready when a bruised and battered champion finally emerges from the brutal Western playoffs. But history suggests the Western champ might have the advantage. Throughout history, the team from the stronger conference has a good record in the finals, winning around 70% of the time. When it’s a situation like the Celtics are in this season, the team with the best overall record being from the much weaker conference, that team has been tripped up along the way much more often than not. Here is a list of teams in a simlair situation to this year’s Celtics. They had the best record in the league while playing in the significantly weaker conference: 

• ’50 Syracuse Nationals: The league actually played in 3 divisions this season. The power was in the central division where 4 teams were among the top 7 in the league. Syracuse led the east and the league at 51-13. The Nats were upended in the Finals when George Mikan and the Lakers 4-2.
• ’73 Celtics: The previous 2 seasons had seen the West take back dominance of the league for the first time since the Mikan era. In ’71 and ’72 two of the most dominant single season teams ever came out of the west in the ’71 Bucks and ’72 Lakers. Both teams won 60 games in ’73, but were well behind the Celtic’s total of 68. The ’73 East included the historically bad 76ers teams that won only 9 games all season, which probably bloated the Celtics victory total a tad. In the end, both the Lakers and the Celtics fell to the champion Knicks.
• ’76 Warriors: By 1976 the East had regained the advantage and finished 38 games ahead of the west in the season series. The West had the best team in the defending champion Warriors. The Warriors were upset in the western finals by the near-miracle Suns team of that year. The Warriors team that looked at the time like they might have at least a mini-dynasty going was suddenly done.
• ’79 Bullets: The Blazers’ one season dynasty had been cut short a year earlier by Walton’s injury and Bird and Magic would enter the league in the fall. In the two seasons in between, the Bullets and Sonics squared off in the finals. The Bullets brought the best overall record and the title of defending champs in ’79. The Sonics had played in the much stronger conference and easily won the title 4-1.
• ’87 & ’88 Lakers: Every season during the 80s, the East actually had a better record than the West. It was rarely a huge gap like the East had in the 60s and the West has this decade, but the East was always better. The difference in the 80s was an all-time great team was playing in the inferior conference. These two Lakers squads have been the only team that has been able to buck the trend of best record in the league from the inferior conference not winning a championship.
• ‘98 Jazz: The Jazz had the same 62-20 record as the East champ Bulls, but did gain home court advantage. Like every team in the 90s, they couldn’t run with this Bulls team when Michael Jordan was on the court. They lost the finals in 6 games and fell behind the great Spurs and Lakers teams of subsequent seasons, leaving Stockton and Malone to eventually retire without a championship.
• ’04 Pacers: Before the palace brawl started a sequence of bad breaks, this Pacers team looked like a good bet to rule the East for a few seasons. In 2004, they lost to eventual champ Detroit in a tough EC finals. The next season, they appeared to be on their way, after crushing the Pistons in Detroit in an early season game. Then the fan tossed the beer, the brawl ensued and what had been a very promising team was pretty much destroyed.
• ’06 Pistons: The Pistons had dumped coached Larry Brown over the summer and made things look easy without him during the regular season, winning 64 games. The playoffs were a different story, as they barely held off LeBron and the Cavs in the East semis, before falling meekly to the eventual champion Heat in the conference finals.  

I didn’t include the ’52 Royals, ’91 Blazers, ’92 Bulls and ’93 Suns. All teams were in the same position as having the best record in the league from an inferior conference, but the difference was pretty insignificant, so I didn’t include them. I will note that the ’92 Bulls were the only team in that group to eventually win a championship. Can the Celtics buck this trend? Possibly. At 66 wins and a 10+ point differential, they’re certainly in all-time great team territory. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they ran through the playoffs in a “take no prisoners” style like the ’83 Sixers, ’91 Bulls or ’01 Lakers. But those teams all came from the stronger conference, unlike these Celtics. I’m also a little leery about Doc Rivers going into the finals. He’s been the perfect coach for this group so far. But the playoffs are a different game and if the Celtics don’t get into unstoppable mode, he may have to do some serious coaching and match wits with a Jackson, Popovich or D’Antoni. That’s something no Celtics’ fan wants to see.

The West 

I’ve decided to stick with my preseason pick of the Suns to win the West and their first championship. I feel the West is winnable by any one of the 8 teams and they’re so close in talent that nothing would surprise me. I didn’t like the Marion-Shaq trade. I felt the team was fine as they were, but it does give them the big bodies to beat San Antonio in round one and that might be their biggest hurdle, depending on how things turn. Another thing I like about Phoenix is this is likely the last chance for the Nash team to get their title. They’ll be a year older next year and might decide to cut costs just a little bit more. That should keep them a little more focused. If they do fall short, Phoenix fans would have to start wondering if this is one of those jinxed franchises, like the pre-2004 Red Sox or the Minnesota Vikings. The Phoenix Suns have always been a team that has been consistently strong and entertaining. They’ve had some great players and have provided their fans with some great drama. They’ve never been down for an extended period and have often been part of the league’s elite.  Their management has always been willing to make the bold move to put their team in a position to win. It’s not like they’re the Clippers who have just been bad. It’s just that they’ve never been able to win the big one. They’ve lost 6 conference finals and 2 finals. No team has been that close so many times without having won. No team has gone as long as the 39 years the Suns have without a championship in the same city. Here’s a quick rundown of some of the near-misses in the Suns’ history. Some are big, others not so much, but all were near misses that kept this franchise from accomplishing truly great things. 

• 1969 draft. Suns post by far the worst record in the league, 11 games worse than the closest competitor, but lose a coin flip to Milwaukee for the top pick. The Bucks get Kareem and the Suns are left with Neal Walk.
• 1971: Suns finish tied for the 4^th best record in the 17-team league. They miss the playoffs due to the fact they played in the league’s toughest division.
• 1974: By winning 3 of their last 5, the Suns reach 30 wins, finish 3 games ahead of Portland and avoid the worst record in the West. The Blazers win the coin flip for Bill Walton, while karma hands the Suns John Shumate with the 4^th pick.
• 1976 playoffs: A 42-40 Suns team stuns the West by getting to the Finals. Then they push a strong Celtics team to the limit, losing a great game 5 in triple OT that would have put them up 3–2. They eventually lose the series in game 6.
• 1987 draft: The Suns finish 2^nd in the draft lottery, just missing out on David Robinson.
• 1993: Suns lose in Finals to the Bulls on a last second 3-pointer in game 6 by John Paxson. The Bulls had won the first two games in Phoenix, but the momentum in the series had clearly shifted to the Suns who would have played a game 7 at home.
• 1995 playoffs: Suns have the eventual champion Rockets down 3-1 with the home court advantage in the west semis. They lose the final 3 games.
• 2004 draft: The Suns deal their #7 pick to the Bulls for the Bulls top pick the next year. The Bulls draft Luol Deng. Also available at #7 were Andre Iguodala, Andris Biedins, Al Jefferson and Josh Smith. Any one of them may have pushed the team over the top in the 2006 or 2007 playoffs. The Bulls meanwhile surprised the league in 2005 by winning 47 games and the Suns were left with the #21 pick, which was sent to the Knicks as part of a larger deal.
• 2007 playoffs: Near the end of a game 4 victory in which they gained back home court advantage over the eventual champion Spurs, all-star Amare Stoudemire gets himself suspended for game 5, basically handing the Spurs the series and the championship.
• 2007 draft: Holding Atlanta’s top pick if it doesn’t land in the top 3, the Suns are in a position to add a top young player to their already strong core. Atlanta bucks the odds and lands a pick in the top 3, meaning the pick remains with the Hawks for another season. So instead of adding a Mike Conley to groom behind Steve Nash or a Joakim Noah as an energy guy off the bench, the Suns get the #15 pick in 2008, which is a much weaker draft class.
• 2007 offseason: The Suns miss out on Kevin Garnett, but with 2 late draft picks in a deep draft they seem primed to improve and make themselves favorites going into the 2008 season. Instead they go on a cost-cutting spree, trading one of the draft picks and their best inside defender for nothing other than cap relief.
• 2008 season: Running near or at the top of a rugged western conference for most of the season, the Suns complete a bizarre trade, sending all-star forward Shawn Marion to Miami for a fading Shaquille O’Neal. The Suns fall to the 6^th seed. 

The ending to the last one is unwritten at this point. If my prediction holds, the Suns will win their first title and erase all the near-misses and heartbreak of the past. If I’m wrong, the Suns can just add another chapter to their history. As far as the individual series, I see it breaking down like this: Cleveland, Orlando, Detroit Boston, New Orleans, Houston, Phoenix and LA winning round 1. Followed by Orlando, Boston, Phoenix and LA in the conference finals. Then Phoenix beats Boston in the finals.