Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 1

by Harlan Schreiber

Boston Celtics 

2/19    Traded Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, and a future conditional second-round pick to New York for Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry 

As Boston tries to hold onto contender status, getting Nate for Eddie House is a clear upgrade.  Robinson is a better player in nearly every facet of the game and is even shooting threes about as well as House is this year. The net gain is not huge and doesn’t change Boston’s larger age/injury issues that seem to be conspiring to end their title contender status.  Still, Robinson can score in many ways and Boston’s offense needs points pretty badly (currently 13th in offensive efficiency).  

On a completely side note, Robinson’s trade probably hurts his value going into free agency.  Despite all of Robinson’s fights with Mike D’Antoni, the Knicks were offering Robinson plenty of shots and minutes.  Instead, Robinson’s final two months will make him look like a 20-minute per game role player on a slow paced grind offense (barring injury to Ray Allen).  I’m sure Robinson would rather experience the playoffs than chuck away on a bad Knicks team but this drawback does remind us that self-interested decisions by NBA players aren’t always crazy because this trade may have a monetary cost for Robinson. Continue reading Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 1…

Monta Ellis and PT Examined

by Harlan Schreiber

A lot has been made in the NBA stat analysis community that Monta Ellis is a bit overrated.  Ellis’ rate states are quite gaudy.  He has 25.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, and 4.2 rpg.  On the other side, Ellis is playing 41.5 mpg and has a rather pedestrian 16.9 PER based on his mediocre shooting, mediocre free throw rate (compared to touches), below-average three point shooting (.327%), and his high turnover rate (3.6 TOs per-36 minutes).   Of course it takes a degree of talent to play 41.5 mpg to begin with but you can put me firmly in the camp of those who believe Ellis to be a decent player. 

What interests me about Ellis, however, is not the debate of his worth but how he is absorbing minutes like a sponge.  Ellis is currently second in the NBA in mpg behind Gerald Wallace, who is playing 42 mpg.  What should we be expecting from our NBA players?  Well, 42 mpg is a lot for an NBA players.  There are currently 100 players who have logged a season of 42 mpg or more (minimum of 60 games played).  Going back to the beginning, logging tons of minutes was a 1960s concept. Here is a distribution of the 42 MPG club by decade: Continue reading Monta Ellis and PT Examined…

Ty Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge Revisited

by Ed Weiland

These two players will always be linked and compared. They play the same position, came into the league through the same draft and were dealt for each other the night of that draft. While Aldridge was chosen before Thomas, most stat guys like me felt Thomas had the much better future at the time. This was my bottom line opinions of the two players going into the draft: 

Thomas: The draft is weak, but I believe Tyrus Thomas is the best player available and the one player who has the best chance to become a perennial all-star. 

Aldridge: But right now Aldridge is just a good college player who isn’t producing enough on the court that I’d consider him a good NBA prospect. Right now he looks like a player who will spend his career backing up at PF and center around the league. Continue reading Ty Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge Revisited…

Quick Thoughts From Orlando-Cleveland Showdown

by Harlan Schreiber

As the first half winds down, we were treated to the two best teams in the NBA matching up in Cleveland last night.  Here are some observations from the game: 

-This has been true for a while now but LeBron James is clearly the best player in the NBA (and probably the world).  Despite some early shooting issues, he controlled this game on all levels and then killed the Magic in the last few minutes off the dribble or the pass.  LBJ’s numbers are basically in line with 2007-08 and 2008-09 so far.  The one difference is that James has steadily been raising his rate of three point shots and accuracy over the last three years too.  James’ current effective FG% is .553%, which would be a career best.  He is also shooting threes at a career best rate (.362%).  The scary thing is that James could plausibly raise his three-point percentage. 

Continue reading Quick Thoughts From Orlando-Cleveland Showdown…

NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update

by Ed Weiland

Right now I would rank the 2010 class as below-average. The potential at this point would rank somewhere between weak and slightly above-average at this point. I could see as many as 9 impact players in this group. But none is a sure thing and if they all come up short, as is the case more often than not, it will be a very weak draft. The strength of this draft will be the forwards, be they power, combo or small. They’re a strong group that could get stronger if some emerging players keep their current pace. The perimeter players are a weak group. There’s no depth at PG behind Wall. There are a few intriguing SGs behind Turner, but most are the usual upperclassmen suspects. 

These rankings are for at this point in the season and should be considered fluid. Think of these rankings like a marathon at the 15-mile mark. There is a group of 4 packed tightly at the front. DeMarcus Cousins has a slight lead and will probably toss a forearm shiver at anyone who tries to pass him. Wall had an early lead, but the others have caught him. Now they’re wondering if he has another sprint in him. The 3 others are surprised to find Turner running with them, but the longer he keeps up, the more obvious it is that he belongs. Aldrich could win the race by default if the top 4 all fade. Greg Monroe has found his stride. I think you get the idea. What I’m trying to say with this stupid marathon metaphor is don’t consider these anything close to a final ranking. Continue reading NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update…

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