Quick Thoughts

by Harlan Schreiber

1.    Cinderella Can Do It?:    With March Madness in full effect and the NBA in something of a slow wind down to the playoffs, I thought we’d take a step back and do a little more NCAA talk.  Specifically, all of our fascination with the Cinderella Squads, i.e. the small fries who upset major programs and their potential to get to a Final Four.  There are quite a few this year and I thought we could take a look at the true underdogs, the teams seeded 11 or higher, to track their history of success (technically the 9 and 10 seeds are also underdogs but the differences between them and their first round opponents are typically a coin flip).  Since the tournament has gone to 64 teams in 1984-85, the low seeds have had varying success.  Each year, the tournament has had 24 team in the 11-16 seed range.  Here’s how many of these teams got past round one (we’ll also put any teams in parentheses that got past the second round): 

1984-85:  2 (Kentucky made Sweet 16)

1985-86:  4 (DePaul, Cleveland State, and LSU made Sweet 16)

1986-87:  4 (Wyoming made Sweet 16)

1987-88:  3 (Richmond and Rhode Island made Sweet 16)

1988-89:  6 (Minnesota made Sweet 16)

1989-90:  4 (Ball State made Sweet 16; Loyola Marymount made the Elite Eight)

1990-91:  6 (Connecticut and Eastern Michigan made Sweet 16)

1991-92:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

1992-93:  4 (George Washington made Sweet 16)

1993-94:  3 (Tulsa made Sweet 16)

1994-95:  5 (No low seeds made the second round)

1995-96:  4 (Arkansas made Sweet 16)

1996-97:  3 (Tennessee-Chattanooga made Sweet 16)

1997-98:  5 (Washington and Valparaiso made Sweet 16)

1998-99:  5 (Missouri State made Sweet 16)

1999-00:  1 (No low seeds made the second round)

2000-01:  7 (Gonzaga made Sweet 16; Temple made the Elite Eight)

2001-02:  6 (Southern Illinois made Sweet 16; Missouri made Elite Eight)

2002-03:  3 (Butler made Sweet 16)

2003-04:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

2004-05:  4 (Wisconsin-Milwaukee made Sweet 16)

2005-06:  6 (Bradley made Sweet 16; George Mason made the Final Four)

2006-07:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

2007-08:  5 (Villanova and Western Kentucky made Sweet 16)

2008-09:  5 (Arizona made Sweet 16)  Continue reading Quick Thoughts…

NCAA Tournament Preview

by Ed Weiland

I’ve been trying to get a handle on what wins the NCAA tournament and there seem to be 3 things that in recent years have been huge. The first is the team has to be one of the top teams in the country. Seriously. The 2nd factor is the team needs to have some quality big men. They don’t have to be great, but they should at the very least be good. At least one of the big men and preferably more, should be players that will be drafted. The higher they will be drafted, the better. The third factor is that the team is a veteran team that has had the core together for at least two years and preferably three. This last one is something I’m adding to the mix this year. Of teams that won championships in the aughts, the only one that did it with freshmen leading them was Syracuse in 2003.

So I have these three things to look for now.

Another thing about this tournament is I think it is going to be a little crazier than it has in recent years with the upsets. This is because talent seems more evenly dispersed this year. Duke and Kansas stand above the rest of the group, but after that the next 25 teams or so are fairly close. The next 25 aren’t bad either. That means some big upsets are going to happen in rounds 2 and 3 once the weaker teams from the smaller conferences have been kicked to the curb and the teams that remain are all pretty equal. That has often been the case, but this year more so than ever. Continue reading NCAA Tournament Preview…

Quick Thoughts OKC Edition

by Harlan Schreiber

1.    OKC Soars:    The Oklahoma City Thunder have officially entered some pretty unique territory.  After beating Utah tonight, the Thunders are now 41-24 and project to win over 50 wins.  That’s pretty impressive because OKC is quite a young team.  But the surprising thing is exactly how young they are.  The Thunder’s top three players in minutes played, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook are all under 24.  In fact, the only player on the roster who plays regularly over 26 is Nick Collison (29).  How are the Thunder doing it?  Obviously, Durant is the driving force and Westbrook to a lesser extent.  KD is scoring at an incredible rate and Westbrook is okay. But the Thunder are 18th in offensive efficiency, indicating that the offense is Durant and Westbrook or bust for the most part.  No other regular player on the team has a PER of over 14.7 (Serge Ibaka is the highest).  

But the team is really defending well.  Amazingly, young players James Harden and Jeff Green have both been tough defensively, as have role players like Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison.  The end result is that OKC has gone from 20th in defensive efficiency in 2008-09 to 6th this season.  It’s not clear where exactly the extra defensive oomph is coming from.  Delving into the numbers, OKC is up a block a game from last year.  Statistically, the Thunder don’t have any incredible shot blockers but the rookie Ibaka is the best blocker and an improvement upon previous options.  Throw in tough defense from Jeff Green and Harden and a full season of Sefolosha and it’s clear that the Thunder don’t really have many weak defensive players in the rotation, with the possible exception of Nenad Krstic (who is hardly a bad defender).  Finally, a full season of coach Scott Brooks clearly helps.  Defensive systems make a huge difference and Brooks gets a ton of credit for the Thunder’s improvement. Continue reading Quick Thoughts OKC Edition…

NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update

by Ed Weiland

Something I’ve been wondering about with the 2010 draft is what affect the potential lockout and new CBA will have on the early entrants. If we go by the theory that players will enter the draft when it is to their financial benefit to do so, we could see quite a few early entrants in 2010. The reason is this is the final season that rookies will get contracts based on the current CBA. The group drafted in 2011 and beyond will likely be looking at less lucrative contracts than previous rookie classes. This reality and the possibility that any rookie entering the league through the 2011 draft could spend most or all of the season locked out and unpaid, could send a wave of prospects into the 2010 draft. In addition to the usual suspects, young players who normally would have returned for their soph seasons looking to star for a year, then go pro–like John Henson or Eric Bledsoe–might decide to make the jump a year early. But that’s just speculation.

The 2010 draft is shaping up as very top heavy. The top 4 players are all very good and very close in potential. Wall has been the consensus top guy all year, but I could see any one of the top 4 eventually emerging as the top guy. After that are a few sleepers and role players, but the depth of the past few drafts isn’t here. There won’t be many bargains found in round 2 this year. Another thing to know here is for many of these players there are only a few games remaining, so this is pretty much it for them. I’ll be doing deeper analysis on all of them who enter the draft, but for most it is unlikely their place will change much. Continue reading NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update…

Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 2

by Harlan Schreiber

Memphis Grizzlies 

2/19    Traded a protected first-round pick to Utah for Ronnie Brewer 

The Grizz were able to nab Brewer for little because of the Jazz’s luxury tax situation.  Unfortunately, Brewer won’t help much for the playoff run since he has promptly tore his hamstring.  Going forward, however, he is a nice defender but might have the ugliest jumper for a shooting guard/small forward I’ve seen in recent years.  On Memphis, he can surely help because they don’t need scorers and they do need defenders.  There is some implication that he is the fallback position if Memphis decide not to pay Rudy Gay as a free agent this summer.  Long term, Brewer’s lack of scoring will probably relegate him to role player status but for now he is not a bad hedge. Continue reading Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 2…

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