2011 June | Hoops Analyst

NBA Draft 2011: Draft Grades

by Ed Weiland

The question of this draft was to take the PG or the forward first. There was some debate, but most stuff I read and heard seemed to favor going with Kyrie Irving at the top pick. That was my feeling. History would also seem to favor going with the PG. Going back to the 1966 draft, which was the first with no territorial selections, there have been 10 drafts that where a forward (either power or small) and a PG were drafted 1-2.

Draft	1^st pick	2^nd pick	Better Career
1966	Cazzie Russell F	Dave Bing PG	PG
1976	John Lucas PG	Scott May F	PG
1979	Magic Johnson PG	David Greenwood F	PG
1981	Mark Aguirre F	Isaih Thomas PG	PG
1990	Derrick Coleman F	Gary Payton PG	PG
1991	Larry Johnson F	Kenny Anderson PG	F
1994	Glenn Robinson F	Jason Kidd PG	PG
1999	Elton Brand F	Steve Francis PG	F
2008	Derrick Rose PG	Michael Beasley F	PG
2010	John Wall PG	Evan Turner F	?
2011	Kyrie Irving PG	Derrick Williams F	?

I’m leaving the 2010 debate as an incomplete, though Wall has an early lead. In 7 of 9 drafts the PG outplayed the forward. In most cases it wasn’t even close. Going by career Win Shares, the closest competition was in 1991, when a forward outperformed a guard. Going by history PGs taken in the top 2 generally perform better than forwards drafted immediately before or after them. This doesn’t include 2005 when Marvin Williams was drafted ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. The advice to take from this: When in doubt, draft the PG over the forward. Based on this it appears Kyrie Irving was the right player to draft at the top. Continue reading NBA Draft 2011: Draft Grades…

June 28, 2011 | In NBA Draft | 3 Comments

NBA Draft 2011: Our Top 30

by Ed Weiland

Right now it is impossible to know exactly where the 2011 draft will rank in overall badness. Of recent drafts, 2000 stands out as the worst and this one could get there. If Kyrie Irving’s numbers are no more than an 11-game mirage, the foreign centers never develop and the rest of this group achieves only their projected status of career journeymen, then 2011 could easily become the worst draft ever. Of course all it takes is one Bismark Biyombo emerging as a force to change everything. As is the case with presidents, best to let historians sort out the best and worst a few decades down the line. Here my top 30 available players, listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal. This is not to be considered a mock draft, as this isn’t a prediction of how things will transpire, just how I feel things should transpire. I didn’t forget about Jimmer or Kahwi. I just feel both are way over rated.

Kyrie Irving, Duke
Tristan Thompson, Texas
Bismark Biyombo
Jonas Valanciunas
Markieff Morris, Kansas
Marshon Brooks, Providence
Marcus Morris, Kansas
Kenneth Faried, Morehead State
Derrick Williams, Arizona
Enes Kanter *
Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA
Nikola Vucevic, USC
Jan Vesely
Chris Singleton, Florida State
Kemba Walker, Connecticut
Tobias Harris, Tennessee
Nikola Mirotec
Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech
Klay Thompson, Washington State
Trey Thompkins, Georgia
Brandon Knight, Kentucky
Alec Burks, Colorado
Damian Saunders, Duquense
E’Twaun Moore, Purdue
Reggie Jackson, BC
Jordan Hamilton, Texas
Nolan Smith, Duke
Jereme Richmond, Illinois
Jimmy Butler, Marquette
Darius Morris, Michigan

Kanter is included in the top 10 based on his rep. This is where any enthusiasm starts to wane. I have no opinion on whether he’s a great prospect or likely bust, because I haven’t seen his numbers. Honestly considering the talent remaining, I would draft Kanter at #10 based on nothing more than his rep.

June 23, 2011 | In NBA Draft | 1 Comment

NBA Draft 2011: Centers

by Ed Weiland

The 2011 NCAA center class might be the worst I’ve ever seen. Usually I get at least one player like John Bryant, Herbert Hill or Alecks Marek who I’m convinced can be at least a semi-effective NBA center. This year such a guy isn’t there. There are a couple of raw, but promising foreign center who should probably both be drafted in the top 5 considering their potential. There’s another who might join them in Kanter.

I look for the following in centers:

On offense efficiency is most important. A 2-point pct. of .600 is a starting point and it should be higher than that. Younger players get some leeway here.

At least 10.0 R40 and preferably more.

At least 3 Blocks per 40 minutes. Again, the more the better.

An outside shot is a nice thing to have, especially if one or more of the other areas are lacking. Ditto for passing skills.

Players are listed in the order I would draft them, all other things being equal.

Bismark Biyombo, Baloncesto Fuenlabrada: I can see why teams would shy away from such a player. He’s raw and is a few years away from being a contributor. A lot can happen in a few years and there’s a decent chance any success will be with another team. But doesn’t a team have to take a chance on a player like Biyombo fairly early in the process, like possibly as high as #3? Is a guard who is certain to be a career reserve really a better option than a guy who has a decent chance of becoming a defensive force inside and possibly much more? I can’t imagine it would be. Biyombo is the best center prospect available, because he has shown great defensive potential. Very raw and seems a long way away, but in this draft he should be snapped up early.

Jonas Valanciunas, Lietvas Rytas: I feel the same way about him as I do about Biyombo, only Valanciunas’ potential is on the offensive side. Also very raw and very foul-prone. He is a long term project who won’t give a team much initial buzz, but makes more sense to me as an early selection than any of the career reserves available after the top pick. I prefer Biyombo, because Valanciunas seems like a weak defender.

Enes Kanter, Turkey: There is little in the way of stats for this guy, other than a pathetic 28 minutes from 2009, which had better not be indicative of his ability. I place him here because he’s considered to be in the top 3 centers and should also come off the board fairly early. But without stats, I can’t form an opinion.

Keith Benson, Oakland: He’s the best college center prospect, because of his ability to block shots. He has also hit on 11 of 29 3-pointers in his career, suggesting some stretch-the-defense ability. Inside scoring is weak, rebounding is OK. Basically he’s the college center who looks like he has the best chance of hanging around the league for a while.

Josh Harrellson, Kentucky: In a league starved for decent big men, Harrellson might find a niche. He was little-used until his senior year, when he became a regular. He doesn’t score much, but all his other numbers are OK. Plus he has some 3-point ability. He’s a long shot, but worth a look.

Greg Smith, Fresno State: Smith has some potential, but he isn’t there yet and I don’t hold out too much hope for a player who isn’t where he needs to be after two NCAA seasons playing in a mid-major conference.

Jordan Williams, Maryland: He’s a big time rebounder, but offers little else. I doubt that in itself is enough to get him drafted. I always wonder if teams will ever get specialized enough to utilize a designated rebounder like Williams in late game FT or final shot situations.

June 23, 2011 | In NBA Draft | 1 Comment

NBA Draft 2011: Power Forwards

by Ed Weiland

This year’s crop of PFs looks like the strongest position in the draft. The PGs seem to be the most talked about group, but they look like a wildly overrated bunch to me. While there is no single great player here, there are some solid players and promising raw talent. The benchmarks I look for in PFs:

Two point FG pct. at least .570 and preferable higher. This tells us that the player can handle inside scoring.

Scores at least 18 P40 and preferably more.

Rebounds at the rate of at least 10 R40. Again the higher the better. Ten is a bare minimum though. Something closer to 12 is much better.
Combined steals and blocks of at least 3.5 per 40 minutes. Generally blocked shots are better, but including both is a good thing. It shows a player can handle the defense required. As always, the higher the number, the better the prospect.
Passing is nice, but not required. Just don’t let the A/TO get too far below 0.4.

This group is heavy on stretch-the-defense types. That being players whose biggest strength is an outside shot. There are also a couple of legitimately good prospects in Markieff Morris and Tristan Thompson and a good energy guy in Faried. This is pretty much the lone bright spot in a very weak draft.

Tristan Thompson, Texas: After some waffling I decided that Tristan Thompson is the best PF available and the #2 prospect in this draft behind Irving. Thompson is a solid defender, doesn’t have the negatives Morris does. His other numbers are promising enough. The most impressive thing here is the fact that Thompson improved during the season. He posted his highest R40 and B40 numbers in March. His 2-point FG pct improved every month. After posting a .495 in Nov-Dec, he followed with months of .558, .562 and .612. Improvement during the season is not the norm, especially for freshmen PFs. Most PFs pile up their best numbers early against weaker competition. That Thompson improved during the season suggest he’s a more impressive prospect than his overall numbers would have me believe. It also fits in with all the positive reports that have come out regarding his attitude and work ethic.

I’m still not sure what his high end is though. For all the talk about work ethic and attitude, there aren’t many signs of the dominance in his numbers that project him as anything other than a solid contributor. I would call him a safe pick at this point. Everything about him says he’ll be better than his stats and that projects him as a long time solid NBA PF. That’s a valuable player and for that reason I have to place at the top of this group, ahead of a player like Morris. Continue reading NBA Draft 2011: Power Forwards…

June 22, 2011 | In NBA Draft | 3 Comments

NBA Draft 2011: Small Forwards

by Ed Weiland

SF is the most difficult position to assess by far. This is mainly because the position offers a wide range of looks and responsibilities. I’ve zeroed in on some important numbers, though it isn’t like a player needs to hit every benchmark to be considered a strong or weak prospect. As analyst we just need to look at the entire package offered by any prospect and make a decision from there.

Scoring: At least 18 P40 is expected and the higher the better. For efficiency the number I look at is Adjusted FG pct. and being over .500 seems to be almost a necessity here, the higher the better. It’s never a bad thing if an ability to score from the outside is included.

Rebounding. This gets a little complicated. A SF prospect doesn’t need to be a great rebounder, but it doesn’t hurt.

Passing and defense. The number I look at with SFs is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes or ASB40. This numbers gives a good indication of a player’s versatility, which is a more valuable trait for SFs than any other position. Best that this number be over 5.0 and again, the higher the better. An A/TO that drifts below 0.5 too far is also a very bad thing.

The best SFs out there this year are mostly super role players. They’re prospects who do things like defense or passing very well, but are not very impressive scorers. Like a bunch of Luke Waltons and Renaldo Balkmans. Davis Bertans, a foreign player who looks like he’ll be drafted was not included, because I was unable to find stats on him.

Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA: He’s the prototype of the 2011 SF prospect. A good all-around player who is a long way from showing he has the offensive game necessary to make an impact. He has some very impressive numbers though. He’s probably the best passer in this group. He has averaged over 2.0 S40 and B40 in separate seasons. He has shown some promise offensively, but has a long way to go. As a low volume scorer his freshman year, he hit .536 on 2-pointers. That dropped to .438 as a soph when he took more shots and that isn’t a good sign. I have him at the top of this group based on upside. There isn’t a lot of potential greatness in this group. It is a long shot, but Honeycutt has a chance to be a pretty valuable player if he can add some offense to his game. That could also be said of Saunders, Parsons, Butler and James, but Honeycutt has an edge because he’s a couple of years younger and has no weaknesses other than his poor offensive game. Because he has flashed some potential as a 3-point shooter, he has the potential to become a Bruce Bowen type.

Jan Vesely, KK Partizan: I am not particularly adept in grading the foreign players. It’s a rare case that I’ve watched them play and the only tool I have is whatever stats I can find. Vesely has some pretty impressive numbers. His 2-point pct has been consistently good, often well over 60%. This is very impressive, though it would be more impressive if he scored at a higher rate. As a 3-point shooter he’s a little shaky, but has shown some promise. He seems fairly active defensively, as his blocks and steals numbers have always been decent. He also appears to be a decent passer. Even though he’s 6’11, he’s a poor rebounder even for a SF, so I couldn’t imagine him playing PF. He has some serious offensive potential, but still seems a long way off and at 6’11 240, I wonder about his quickness. Continue reading NBA Draft 2011: Small Forwards…

June 22, 2011 | In NBA Draft | No Comments