Bad Shooting

by Harlan Schreiber

There have been some notable really bad shooting performances from usually pretty good players this season.  Most notably, Lamar Odom is shooting 34% after shooting 53% last year.  Plenty other players have also looked ugly too:  James Toney, DeShawn Stevenson, Ron Artest, Baron Davis, and Jason Kidd are other well-known players hovering below 36%.  But is there really more bad shooting this year than normal?  It would seem that this might happen in a lockout year but the fact is not confirmed by anecdotal evidence.  Just to see how true this might be reallly be, I ran a search of all players who played more than 30 games and 15 mpg, who were under 37%  from the field.  These benchmarks numbers are somewhat arbitrary but shooting below 37% does seem to be a particularly ugly shooting accomplishment and nice line to draw.  So, let’s take a look at the yearly number of players who fall into this category since 1997-98:

1997-98: 8 players

1998-99: 22 players (50 game schedule so eligibility was reduced to 20 games)

1999-00: 7 players

2000-01: 12 players

2001-02: 11 players

2002-03: 11 players

2003-04: 10 players

2004-05: 9 players

2005-06: 5 players

20006-07: 5 players

2007-08: 9 players

2008-09: 5 players

2009-10: 5 players

2010-11: 8 players

2011-12 17 players (through 50 games so far, threshold reduced to 20 games for eligibility)

Bingo.  We have seen more players really crap out this year then usuald.  In fact, the only worse season was 1998-99, the other lockout season, which was highlighted by particularly poor play.  This year, the NBA has looked relatively crisp considering the rushed start to the season but a mix of youngsters who need more time to develop (Kemba Walker, Ricky Rubio) and vets who just might be cooked (Artest, Corey Maggette, Kidd).  The age distribution of this year’s horrible shooting group is spread mostly in the early 20s or the over 31 set and there are no players between ages 26-30 who are in this group.  Past history indicates that the older guys will have problems arresting the declining.  Of the 30-odd players over age-32 who made this list of bad shooters since 1997-98, only a few were able subsequently improve.  John Starks, who was awful in the lockout season improved his shooting the next few years but still was not good and role players Lindsey Hunter and Jerome Kersey improved a bit, though their volume of shooting was so low that the improvement was not statistically very significant.  As such, it’s safe to assume that most of the older guys who shot poorly this season  are not likely to bounce back, unless something weird happened (Odom is the best candidate for some improvement, given that his problems appear as much emotional as due to decline).

A few more odds and ends of the bad shooting list:

-Kidd last season had the most win shares, by far, of all the crappy shooters at 6.4 since 1997-98, followed by Bruce Bowen 2000-01 at 4.2.

-The highest volume bad shooter is Starks in 1998-99, when he shot .370% from the field and .290% from three and averaged 14.6 shots per game.  Yes, Starks was the big reward that the Warriors got for trading Latrell Sprewell.

-Vernon Maxwell might be the least effective volume shooter in 1999-00 for Seattle.  He shot .345% from the field and still got off 10.4 shots per game.   He shot poorly and then brawled with Gary Payton in the weight room.

-Jason Collins was the most hesitant bad shooter (for the 2006-07 Nets).  Collins started 78 games and averaged almost 29 mpg and shot .364 but took only 1.9 shots per game.

-Five of the top ten most shots per game for bad shooters came in the last two years (Rubio, Walker, Maggette, Chauncey Billups, and Gilbert Arenas).

-Best young player on the list?  Steve Nash in 1998-99.  The Mavs handed him the keys that year and he did not play well, despite being 24.   We assume the lockout hurt him too.  He was very good as a backup the year before and bounced back in 1999-00.

Transactions 3/6-3/16

by Harlan Schreiber

Chicago Bulls

3/14    Signed Mike James to a 10-day contract

With Derrick Rose’s injury issues, Mike James has gotten another look in the NBA, long after his career seemed over.  The Bulls signed him and cut him early in the year but he was surprisingly effective, primarily because he has hit 57% of his threes (he was less impressive 12-31 inside the line).  One would think there are better alternatives than a 36-yeard old fringe player, who hasn’t been really been in the NBA since 2008-09, though he was good in the cameo earlier in the year.

Cleveland Cavaliers

3/14    Traded Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga to L.A. Lakers for Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, and a protected first-round pick and other considerations

3/15    Signed Donald Sloan to a 10-day contract

It is pretty clear that the Cavs lost the talent portion of this trade, as Sessions is a bona fide NBA starter, while Walton looks done and Kapono hasn’t hit the three, which is the only reason he is in the NBA.  The salary exchange is fairly neutral too.  So why give up the talent?  The Cavs didn’t need Sessions with Kyrie Irving playing so well but the haul here is only a first-rounder (reported to be the Lakers’ own pick in 2012) and “other considerations”, which I assume means some cash.  A first-rounder isn’t a bad haul for Sessions but you have to wonder what else might’ve been available considering how many teams could use a solid point right now.

Denver Nuggets

3/15    In a three-team traded, Washington traded Ronny Turiaf and JaVale McGee to Denver and Nick Young to L.A. Clippers for Nene from Denver and Brian Cook and a 2015 second-round pick from the L.A. Clippers

Talk about a fascinating out of the blue move.  Only a few months ago, Nene was the centerpiece of the post-Carmelo Nuggets and now he’s gone for McGee.  How did this happen?  Hard to say exactly.  Nene’s flaws are clear: he doesn’t rebound and shot block well for a big and he has not shot as well as usual around the rim (.509% from the field versus .560% for his career).  At 29, Nene would be good the next few years but probably not as good as in his 20s.  McGee, on the other hand, offers youth, shot blocking, and incredible hops, but with tons of mental mistakes thrown in the max.  Also, McGee is a potential free agent.  Despite all this, McGee’s advanced stats are really impressive (19.7 PER, 3.2 blocks per 36 minutes, and 11.6 rebs per 36 minutes).

It seems that the Nuggets have decided that the effective team from last year was not a true title contender and they would rather re-boot with McGee than have Nene be the cornerstone of the team for the next five years.  If McGee plays great over the rest of the season, they have a free agent that they will have to pay.  If McGee does stupid things, Denver can walk away and try to find another big.  It isn’t a foolproof plan, as a Nene-led team could certainly get to the second-round of the playoffs but I like that Denver is shooting for higher upside, even if there is some risk involved.

Continue reading Transactions 3/6-3/16…

Transactions: 2/21-3/5

by Harlan Schreiber

Atlanta Hawks

2/20    Signed Erick Dampier to a second 10-day contract

3/1      Signed Erick Dampier for the remainder of the season

With Jason Collins having injury problems and a general lack of big bodies in Atlanta, the Hawks have decided to try to squeeze a little value out of Dampier.  Dampier looks close to done as an NBA player, unless you want to use him for short spurts.  Atlanta seems to recognize this and he doesn’t get more than 6 mpg so far.  Just for fun, here’s is Dampier’s per/36 minute production versus the similarly talented Collins this season:

-Collins: 3.4 pts, 1.3 FGM/4.2 FGA (.313 FG%), 5.5 rebs, 0.8 assts, 0.8 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.6 TOs, 3.7 fls, 2.3 PER

-Dampier: 1.7 pts, 0.9 FGM/5.1 FGA (.167 FG%), 12.9 rebs, 2.6 assts, 0.9 stls, 0.9 blks, 0.9 TOs, 2.6 fls, 8.5 PER

There you have it, Dampier, even shooting 17% from the field, does a bit more on the court than Collins.  Neither player is asked to do much more than muscle big men and stay in the way on defense.  Collins does get some extra credit for his work on Dwight Howard, though you’ d be hard pressed to see his work actually help stat-wise.  Collins’ plus/minus is a team low -11.8 this year and Dampier is a respectable +7.8 (both in limited minutes obviously).  Continue reading Transactions: 2/21-3/5…

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