NBA Draft 2013: Early Look at the Centers

by Ed Weiland

It’s another typical group of centers for the 2013 draft. At least that’s how I would describe the returning players. The freshmen could actually be something special. The reason is there are so many highly-rated centers in the 2012 recruiting class. Five of the top 8 players and 11 of the top 40 are listed as centers. That’s way out of the norm. The previous 5 classes had 5 centers total in the top 8 and never more than 7 in the top 40 in any one year. So the 2013 incoming freshmen center class comes in with depth and potential rarely seen. Recruiting classes can be fickle though. All the players are a long way from being complete and a lot of wrong things can happen on their way there. But the sheer number of highly-touted prospects makes it likely that there will be one or two freshmen centers who emerge as the top prospect(s) for the 2013 draft.

Since this piece is focusing on the returning centers, it won’t be as glowing. There are a couple of sophs, Alex Len and Amir Williams, who hold some promise. Other than that 2013 features a typically starless group of centers. Many of them are old for college players, but all have shown enough that they’re worth keeping an eye on. Some will improve enough in 2013 to get themselves into the first round discussion. Here are the numbers:

Player	2PP	P40	R40	A/TO	B40
Alex Len	553	10.9	9.9	0.4	3.9
Amir Williams	528	10.0	12.9	0.2	4.8
Jeff Withey	536	14.2	9.9	0.6	5.7
Gorgui Dieng	526	10.9	10.9	0.4	3.8
Jordan Henriquez	544	14.4	10.9	0.4	4.5
Gregory Echenique	607	16.2	12.1	0.4	2.7
Joshua Smith	574	23.5	11.6	0.2	1.7
Reggie Johnson	500	15.4	11.0	1.0	1.5
Dwayne Dedmon	556	14.1	10.1	0.2	1.8
Alec Brown	470	17.8	10.6	0.4	3.8
Aziz N’daiye	522	12.6	11.8	0.2	1.6
Zeke Marshall	547	15.6	8.0	0.5	4.2
David Bruce	493	15.9	12.6	0.2	1.4

Alex Len, Maryland: Alex Len is a good candidate to become a college basketball force in the 2013 season. His freshman year was promising and he’s a young sophomore, not turning 20 until after the 2013 season. His numbers are more impressive than they look. Len was suspended the first 10 games of the season and missed the opportunity to fatten his numbers up against weaker non-conference competition. For that reason alone his numbers should improve. If his game improves, the numbers will improve that much more. Alex Len is a player to watch.

Amir Williams, Ohio State: He played only 191 minutes as a freshman and the DNPs became more frequent as the season wore on. But he rebounded and blocked shots like a stud when he did play. Williams and Len are the top returning prospect based on upside. Len seems on track for some level of stardom. Williams is promising, but still could go either way at this point.

Jeff Withey, Kansas: I like him because he’s such a prolific shot blocker. That’s the single most important skill for any center prospect. The rest of his resume isn’t so impressive. There are some signs that he could improve though. I do think he’s a better rebounder than what he showed last year. He shared the lane with Thomas Robinson, who was the top rebounder in the nation. His departure alone should improve Withey’s numbers. While Withey didn’t score that often, he did get to the line on a fairly high percentage of his FG attempts, suggesting he’ll be an efficient scorer. The negative is he’ll be 23 in March, which makes him a year older than most seniors. Regardless of the negatives, a player who blocks shots this effectively should find a place.

Gorgui Dieng, Louisville: I liked him quite a bit more last January, before a dip in rebounding and shooting hurt his numbers. Anyone who watched the tournament knows what a force he can be on defense. His upside is something of an unknown. He’ll be 23 in January, which is never a good thing for a developing prospect. Unlike most prospects he’s still kind of new to basketball. His skinny frame could probably handle some more bulk and that won’t hurt his game. If there is a player who can emerge as a 23 year-old junior, Dieng seems like a good candidate. His defense alone should get him drafted in round one.

Jordan Henriquez, Kansas State: Very similar to Withey in more ways than playing in the same state. He’s also a 23 year-old senior who only started getting regular minutes this past season as a junior. Shot blocking is his most impressive skill. He’s an adequate rebounder. He’s a low volume scorer, but gets to the line enough to think he has some potential to score with more efficiency.

Gregory Echenique, Creighton: He’s smallish and plays low minutes, but has been an efficient scorer and solid rebounder most of his career. He’ll be a 5^th-year senior this year, but started young so he’s the age of most seniors. His shot blocking was down this past year, but he had been over 3 B40 his previous 3 seasons, with a high of 3.9. Might be more of a PF and I’ll move him to that group if subsequent measurements put him shorter than the 6’9” he’s listed at. Echenique looks like he has potential as a valuable energy player.

Joshua Smith, UCLA: It’s always intriguing to wonder what sort of improvement a player like Smith would see should he drop 50 lbs. Without the weight loss, he’s a promising offensive player who rebounds adequately, but is lacking on defense. The biggest factor affecting Smith going into 2013 is the Bruin recruiting class. It’s probably the top group in the nation. It includes only one big guy, Tony Parker, but the entire look of the team will change and that is certain to affect Smith’s numbers.

Reggie Johnson, Miami: Another older center, Johnson will be 23 in December. He needs to get back to being the player he was as a sophomore, when he hit 59% of his shots, posted a 15.0 R40 and was a better, albeit still substandard shot blocker. As a junior he was more of a finesse player, shooting an occasional 3-pointer and flashing better passing skills.

Dwayne Dedmon, USC: An interesting story. Dedmon didn’t play basketball in high school for religious reasons. He caught the attention of the coach at Antelope Valley CC and started playing the game. He transferred to USC last year and put in a somewhat promising year while he battled injuries. Dedmon is 23, the age of a 5^th-year senior. His numbers are those of a 2^nd-round draft pick at best. Whether he has more upside than your typical 23 year-old is possible because he started playing so late in life. I’d like him a lot more if he were a better shot blocker.

Alec Brown, Green Bay: A junior with good rebounding and shot blocking numbers. His FG pct. is well below 50% for his career and that makes him a long shot unless he can make drastic improvement.

Aziz N’Daiye, Washington: A 24 year-old senior. Aziz comes up a little short as a prospect. His strength is rebounding. He’s lacking on both offense and defense though.

Zeke Marshall, Akron: He’s worth a mention, because he’s a decent shot blocker. He’s an extremely poor rebounder though and that will hinder his chances.

David Bruce, Hampton: He’s one of the better rebounders here and that makes him worth watching. The rest of his game is pretty weak though and unless he makes some improvement he’s unlikely to be drafted.

NBA Draft 2013: Early look at the Power Forwards

by Ed Weiland

This is a pretty good group… potentially of course. Like the SFs there’s a lot of depth here. It’s a good mix of promising sophs and college veterans with one last chance to sparkle. With the incoming freshman class also being deep in big men, 2013 should be a good year for the bigs, which means a strong year for college basketball and a deep 2013 draft.

I’m going to adopt the term “stretch 4” to replace combo forward. Combo suggests they play both SF and PF. In reality such players are almost exclusively PF. Stretch 4 better describes what such a player does. Their value is in their ability to stretch the defense with their 3-point ability, but still have enough ability to rebound and guard opposing PFs adequately. I’m not certain who coined the term, but I like it and will use it from now on.

Here are the numbers. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, though it’s early and not too much should be read into this.

Player	2PP	P40	R40	A/TO	SB40
Tony Mitchell	599	19.7	13.8	0.6	5.2
Rudy Gobert	794	13.6	10.8	0.2	4.6
Jarnell Stokes	548	15.0	11.6	0.3	3.6
Cody Zeller	623	21.5	9.0	0.8	3.5
Tashaun Thomas	582	15.0	11.5	0.7	4.2
Rakim Christmas	573	9.6	10.2	0.3	3.9
Khem Birch	571	11.9	13.5	0.0	5.7
James McAdoo	434	14.4	9.2	0.4	2.9
Mason Plumlee	572	15.4	12.7	0.4	3.3
Patric Young	618	15.6	9.8	0.7	2.0
Jackie Carmichael	534	19.6	13.6	0.5	2.8
Jamelle Hagins	`548	15.7	14.0	0.4	4.6
Trevor Mbakwe	604	19.7	12.9	0.5	4.0
Arselan Kazemi	596	16.3	13.9	1.1	4.1
Matt Staff	547	20.0	11.9	0.8	2.9
Chase Behanan	560	14.3	11.2	0.4	1.9
Julian Boyd	578	23.6	12.7	0.4	1.5
Elias Harris	525	17.7	11.5	0.7	2.3

Tony Mitchell PF, North Texas: I had him the 2^nd best college prospect behind Anthony Davis for most of last year. His rebounding and shot blocking numbers are stellar. He was also efficient as a scorer, just missing .600 on 2-pointers and hitting .439 on 3-pointers. eHe was also solid as a scorer/ H Two things concern me. As a scorer he was promising, but faded some as the year progressed. It is also a concern that he missed his first year due to academic issues and had to transfer from his original school, Missouri, without ever having played there. That doesn’t mean he can’t play, but a year missed is never a good thing. Those concerns aside, he’s a dominant player with NBA size and length. I expect Mitchell to be one of the top 5 picks in the 2013 draft and go on to a solid NBA career.

Rudy Gobert, France: His numbers, especially the 2PP are very impressive. The numbers above were posted in the French league where he played less than 14 minutes per game. In 6 Euroleague games he shot just .455, but with better rebounding and defensive numbers. The Euroleague games were for a total of less than 100 minutes, so not a lot should be taken from that. Gobert is a player with great length and dominant stats. At this very early point in his career he looks like he has a chance to be a good one.

Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee: Stokes is under the radar now, but this is a player to watch. He joined the Vols in January after completing his senior year of high school early. In 2013 he’ll be the age of a college freshman. In half a season, while most kids his age were finishing up high school, he put up solid numbers across the board, including good efforts against Kentucky, UConn and Vanderbilt, all teams with solid front lines. It’s worth noting that his numbers were put up without the benefit of a weak non-conference schedule that almost always inflates numbers. So the numbers you see for Stokes should be expected to improve quite a bit in 2013 if for no other reason than he’ll have a non-conference schedule to fatten them up.

Cody Zeller, Indiana: Zeller is listed as a center in most places, but I have him as a PF for now, because he just grades out better here. He hasn’t flashed the shot blocking skills necessary to play center. Zeller is an excellent offensive player, scoring often and efficiently. The problem is he’s a weak rebounder. Looking at players who were frequent and efficient scorers, but weak rebounders as freshmen, many more top 10 busts come up than all-stars. Players like Ike Diogu, Armon Gilliam, JR Reid, Brandan Wright and Samaki Walker all had a similar profile as freshmen. Other weak rebounders who emerged as scorers later in their careers include early first-round busts Stromile Swift and Marcus Fizer. The point I’m trying to make is big guys who are poor rebounders have a tendency to bust as a pros if drafted in the top 10. This is good information to have about a player like Zeller who is currently listed at #1 in more mocks than any player other than Nerlens Noel.

Tashawn Thomas, Houston: Thomas is a player coming off a very solid, but anonymous freshman year. He was a solid defender, though his blocks took a dive as the season progressed. He does need to get bigger, as he is listed at 6’8” 215 lb. He’s still young, so putting on 20-30 lbs. doesn’t seem like the problem for him that it might be for a senior. Other than the size issue and the fact that he faded some, Thomas has few weaknesses in his game.

Rakim Christmas, Syracuse: Raw, but flashed some potential. Most impressive was his defense. That’s the best skill a raw, young player can have, so Christmas would seem to have some nice upside. At a school like Syracuse it’s difficult to say whether he’ll get more opportunities or not as a soph. Fab Melo has left, but freshman DaJuan Coleman is arriving, so Christmas could find himself in the same role he was last year. He also suffers from the same weak rebounding malady that has me so down on Cody Zeller, but doesn’t possess Zeller’s offensive prowess.

Khem Birch, UNLV: A highly touted freshmen last year, Birch left Pitt after 10 games. He’ll miss the first part of the season, but should get some big minutes once he’s eligible. His departure from Pitt involved him blasting his ex-teammates. That shows some immaturity and combined with the fact that he transferred in the first place isn’t a good omen for his prospects. Right now Khem Birch is a young player with promising numbers put up in a small number of minutes against weak, non-conference competition. If he shuts his mouth, works hard and plays ball he could emerge as a surprise.

James McAdoo, North Carolina: Another darling of the mocks. While I can understand the appeal of Zeller, I just don’t get why there’s so much love for McAdoo. He did show some mild improvement in March, but was hardly the second coming of his Uncle Bob. The improvement certainly didn’t merit the quick ushering of him into the top 5 prospects in all of college ball that has occurred. The good thing for him is he’s going to get a chance to shine. Carolina’s starting front line has headed to the pros and there is no top-ranked freshman big guy coming in.

Mason Plumlee, Duke: I’m not sure if he’ll stay in the Mason role with Marshall moving right to the Miles role. He could move into the Miles role, while Marshall fills Mason’s old role. Either way, he’ll likely remain the low volume/high efficiency scorer with solid rebounding and shaky defense.

Patric Young, Florida: He’s in the same boat as Zeller and Christmas. He does some things well, but his poor rebounding stands out as a big red flag.H

Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State: A marginal prospect who needs to defend better. It is worth noting that his defensive numbers were a much more impressive 4.5 SB40 as a freshman in limited minutes. If he can get back close to that level and continue to improve his offense, he’ll be a prospect worth watching.

Jamelle Hagins, Delaware: Hagins stepped up his game enough as a junior that he’s worth watching. The main improvement was to his offense, though that’s still the weakest part of his game. He’s also undersized, but put up some very strong rebounding and defensive numbers.

Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota: He had a solid statistical year as a soph in 2011 and was headed for another in 2012 before an injury ended his season. He has had some run-ins with the law and will be 24 by the time draft day 2013 gets here. Those are two big negatives. Best case is a solid 2013 season gets him into round 2.

Arselan Kazemi, Rice: Kazemi has some potential as an energy player. I’d like him a lot more if he blocked more shots. His high SB40 is mostly driven by steals. But any player with numbers like this is worth watching.

The Stretch Fours

Matt Staff, Texas State: Flashed some potential as a stretch 4, by hitting .429 on 56 trey attempts this past year. With decent rebounding and barely adequate defense, he has enough of a skill set to merit a look. I’d like to see him keep up the .400+ on over 100 attempts before I go too overboard on him.

Chane Behanan, Louisville: His numbers are OK, but not great. Defense is especially weak. What I find interesting in his numbers is he launched 36 treys, making only 6 of them. The fact that he took so many with so little success, tells me his shooting ability is better than what he showed. That would make him a decent stretch 4, depending on how good a shooter he actually is.

Julian Boyd, LIU: Another player with stretch 4 potential. Boyd will be a 5^th-year senior in 2013. His defense is weak, but he’s a solid rebounder who scores efficiently from inside and out.

Elias Harris, Gonzaga: I had considered him more of a very marginal SF prospect for 3 seasons, but last year he rebounded well enough to put himself in the discussion as a stretch 4.

NBA Draft 2013: Early Look at the Small Forwards

by Ed Weiland

While I’m not excited about the returning back court prospects, I do like this group of SFs. I like this group because of the depth in players who are close to being solid prospects, but just need to add some offense or defense to the skill set. I prefer the guys who already play the defense, hence the listing of the likes of Roberson, Moser and Hill ahead of mock draft darlings Thomas and Nash.

Here are the numbers. I’m showing Bowers’ numbers from the 2011 season, as he was out all of 2012. Players are listed in order of how I would rank them as NBA prospects going into the season. It’s early so don’t take the “rankings” too seriously just yet. As with the other positions, the freshmen will be added to the list when I see some college stats.

Player	2PP	3PP	AFG%	P40	R40	A/TO	ASB40
Otto Porter	611	226	550	13.6	9.5	1.4	5.9
Andre Roberson	537	380	543	15.4	14.8	0.7	5.7
Mike Moser	507	331	504	17.3	13.0	0.8	6.5
Robert Covington	572	453	610	22.8	10.0	0.6	5.6
Solomon Hill	552	394	565	16.0	9.6	1.1	5.1
Doug McDermott	633	486	654	28.4	10.2	0.5	1.7
Ian Hummer	490	317	495	21.0	9.6	1.1	7.6
Brendan Dawson	586	0	580	16.4	8.8	0.7	5.2
Rodney Williams	615	309	590	15.5	7.1	1.1	5.7
CJ Leslie	534	286	530	19.9	9.9	0.5	5.1
Deshaun Thomas	599	345	570	20.0	6.8	0.7	3.8
Adonis Thomas	515	405	539	14.6	5.3	0.6	3.5
Laurence Bowers	544	0	529	18.5	9.7	1.0	6.9
LeBryan Nash	436	235	418	17.9	6.7	0.6	3.4

Otto Porter, Georgetown: After a promising freshman season, Porter tops this list. As with a lot of these players the key for Porter will be how well he handles the role of being his team’s top option on offense. His defense and passing appear to be solid. As a sophomore his upside gives him a slight edge on Roberson and Moser. I also have a bias toward Hoyas because they have shown a tendency to outperform their college numbers in the pros.

Andre Roberson, Colorado: The returning SFs are predominately made up of two types. The first is all-around players who need to score more frequently and/or efficiently before they’re considered serious prospects, like Roberson. The other type is the young player who came in as a hyped prospect but struggled to live up to the hype.

Roberson is a good candidate to bust out as a star in 2013. He’s listed as a PF in some places probably because of his rebounding prowess, but is the size of a SF so that’s his position. He’ll be a junior and has been slow to develop, but should get his shot this year. He’s a solid defender. He has been a very efficient scorer with a low number of opportunities. The concerns include whether he can continue the efficiency and if his marginal passing skills will improve any when he’s in the role of the top option.

Mike Moser, UNLV: Similar to Roberson, but not as efficient a scorer. Moser missed a year due to a transfer from UCLA, so he’s the age of most seniors. This transfer takes him down a few notches as a prospect. Moser has big man skills, but is trapped in the body of a wing player. His incredible defense and rebounding numbers suggest serious athleticism. If his offense improves, he’ll be an excellent prospect.

The Rebels situation is in a bit of flux going into the season, so Moser’s role could change in 2013. He had played a lot on the inside as a soph last year. There are two prominent transfers, Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith, coming in. Both play in the front court, as does highly touted freshman Anthony Bennett. The impending arrival of these 3 could affect Moser’s rebounding, which was his biggest strength. Birch is ineligible until late December and Smith’s eligibility for 2012-13 is still in doubt. Bennett is a freshman and no one is really sure about those guys until they actually play at this level.

Moser is a player needs to step it up offensively and might be playing a different role than the one he played in 2012. That seems like a tougher than normal situation. He flashed some terrific potential in his first year as a Runnin’ Rebel, so the feeling here is he’ll be up to the challenge.

Robert Covington, Tennessee State: Stepped up as a junior last year and made himself into a serious prospect. If he repeats this season as a senior, he’s a first round pick. His only weakness is passing. Concern is he’s an undersized PF, but he can drill the trey better than any player listed here other than McDermott and that will help.

Solomon Hill, Arizona: He’s in a similar situation to Moser in that newcomers to the team could change the dynamic for him. The newcomers are 3 of the top 20 players in the freshmen class, all big men. As is the case with Moser the question will be whether Hill can emerge as the leader of a young team, or if he’ll get buried in his final college year under the wave of talented newcomers.

Doug McDermott, Creighton: Incredibly efficient scorer and strong rebounder, McDermott has some of the worst defensive numbers I’ve ever seen in a prospect. He’s also a poor passer. Usually such numbers doom a prospect no matter how great their other skills are. In McDermott’s case he’s such a good offensive player that I suspect there’s a role for him somewhere.

Branden Dawson, Michigan State: A sophomore coming off a freshman season of moderate promise. He’s also coming off ACL surgery in March, so an adjustment year seems likely. Dawson is worthy of a mention here, but more of a name for 2014 after he’s another year removed from surgery that often takes a year to fully recover from.

Ian Hummer, Princeton: Ivy-leaguer of some promise. His efficiency suffered when he took on a larger offensive load as a junior last year. The good thing that happened in Ian Hummer’s world during his junior year is he stepped up his offense from behind the arc for the first time in his career and hit .317. Hardly the 2^nd coming of Steve Kerr, but enough to boost his stock another notch.

Rodney Williams, Minnesota: Another player with a nice all-around game who needs to score more frequently. He’s a senior on a team that returns most of the core, so it seems likely his role will be similar to previous seasons. Best case scenario for him is to improve on his weak outside shooting while keeping the rest of his game strong.

CJ Leslie, North Carolina State: He looks too much like an undersized PF to me. Coming off two years where he has been a solid, productive college player, but something less than a prospect. Leslie needs to improve his passing and his outside shooting before I can consider him much of a prospect.

Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State: Dominant scoring potential, but with weak defensive and rebounding numbers. Generally such players don’t make it as I detailed in the Harrison Barnes piece from the 2012 draft preview. Barnes will be an interesting test case for low ASB40 players. I do like Thomas’s offense, but I’d like it more if he could light it up from the outside like McDermott has.

Adonis Thomas, Memphis: He came in as a top 10 prospect, but struggled in 455 minutes before an injury ended his season. The best thing I can say is Thomas flashed some offensive potential, topping .500 on 2-pointers and .400 on treys. The rest of his game was extremely weak. He gets points for being highly-touted, but he has a long way to go.

Laurence Bowers, Missouri: He’ll be a 5^th-year senior coming off ACL surgery. That’s a killer combo for any prospect. Before the injury he only needed to add an outside shot to his arsenal to become a decent prospect. Bowers was a good enough player in his first 3 seasons that he’s worth watching, but there are a lot of factors that just are not in his favor.

LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State: Another sophomore who offers more in reputation than production. He needs to improve every part of his game to become a serious prospect.

Dario Saric, Croatia: I’m not ranking Saric at the bottom here, but thought he was worth a mention. I mention him because he’s 6’10” and just 18 years old. There’s a lot to think about with this guy and I’ll take the same approach with him as I would with incoming freshmen. I’m going to wait until I see more stats at a higher level before I form an opinion. His stats in lower leagues have some good and some bad. I suspect PF could be his eventual position because of his size, but his stats right now suggest SF.

Draft 2013: Early Look at the SGs

by Ed Weiland

If the PG class of 2013 is a little weak, the returning SG class looks downright anemic. I expect this to change. I expect an upper classmen or three will emerge out of nowhere. I also feel one or two freshmen will sparkle, as usually is the case. But right now there just isn’t a lot to see in the world of SG prospects. The returning players all have some work to do on their games and the foreign SGs also look weak at first glance.

The returning group is a mix of sophomores trying to build on decent freshman seasons and college veterans hoping for the chance to put it all together. Players are listed in order of how much I like them as prospects going into the season. Because the season hasn’t started yet and these players are all very young, the order will certainly change during the year and shouldn’t be taken too seriously at this point.

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	S40	A/TO	RSB40
BJ Young	552	413	23.7	1.8	1.0	7.0
CJ McCollum	489	341	25.9	3.1	1.5	11.5
Drew Crawford	535	440	19.4	1.5	1.3	7.8
George Beamon	516	427	23.0	1.8	0.7	9.1
K Caldwell-Pope	449	366	18.4	1.7	1.4	8.5
CJ Wilcox	473	403	19.0	1.2	1.0	6.5
Anthony Raffa	541	357	21.5	2.4	0.9	7.3
Lasan Kromah	442	313	15.6	2.4	1.0	10.4
Victor Oladipo	523	208	15.9	2.0	1.0	10.7
PJ Hairston	390	273	16.8	1.2	1.0	8.1
LaQuentin Miles	482	0	22.0	3.0	0.9	10.6
Michael Snaer	461	404	18.4	1.5	1.0	7.0

BJ Young, Arkansas: Easily the top returning SG. Young scored often and efficiently as a freshman. Players who flash this type of offensive proficiency as freshmen usually become first round draftees. Young will be no exception. He might even bust out as a college superstar in 2013. The downside is he’s skinny and his defense is marginal, so his high end is more likely that of a soft scorer than an all-around dominant SG. But he’s also young enough that weights and hard work could turn him into a more dominant all-around player.

CJ McCollum, Lehigh: Solid, multi-skilled guard. McCollum is mainly a scorer and defender, but can play some point. The problem is he’s always been an inefficient scorer and that has historically been a huge negative. His 3-pointer has been shaky since he hit .421 as a freshman. If he can get his percentages over .500 and .400 as a senior, and he’s close enough that this isn’t a crazy notion, he’s a potential lottery pick.

Drew Crawford, Northwestern: He stepped up his game nicely as a junior, surpassing .500 and .400 easily while hitting all the other important benchmarks, except scoring where he fell just short of 20.0, at 19.4. Crawford should get a chance to sparkle in 2013 with Shurna having left. The flipside of this situation is his efficiency could suffer when he becomes the Wildcat’s top option.

George Beamon, Manhattan: A solid small college SG and very much a player to watch. Beamon’s improvement from little-used freshman, to sophomore starter, to junior star has been pretty dramatic. It shows he’s a hard worker and that’s always a good thing for a prospect. The big negative is he’s turnover-prone.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia: Couldn’t he just go by Ken Pope as a player? It would make things so much easier for those of us who type his name into spreadsheets. Whatever he decides to go by, Mr. Pope is a decent prospect. He’s the next best returning sophomore SG after Young. He needs to improve his scoring efficiency a lot before I take him too seriously as a prospect though.

CJ Wilcox, Washington: He should get a chance to shine with Wroten and Ross having moved on to the pros. Wilcox will be 22 before the Pac-10 season starts, so he’s the age of most seniors and this is a pretty big negative for a “developing” player. But he should get a chance to play and star this year and that’s a big advantage for him.

Anthony Raffa, Coastal Carolina: He’s a little late in busting out, having just emerged last year as a 4^th-year junior. He has a transfer in his past, which is always a negative sign. He’s also just 6’1” and has shown little in the way of PG skills, so it’s very unlikely he’ll be a starter in the NBA. He put up some nice numbers last year in his first as a full-timer and that makes him a player to watch.

Lasan Kromah, George Washington: Kromah looked great as a freshman in 2010, showing dominant ability on both ends of the court. He missed his sophomore year because of injury. He then struggled on offense last year as a junior. Because he’s been off the map for a couple of years, due to injury and inefficiency, I have to consider him a long shot. Because he flashed dominant ability as a freshman, he remains a player to keep an eye on.

Victor Oladipo, Indiana: A good defender, he needs to score more efficiently from behind the arc and more frequently in general. As the 4^th-leading scorer on a team that returns everyone, it’s hard to see how his looks will increase. He does have some ability though and could break out should his offense improve dramatically.

PJ Hairston, North Carolina: He’s a recent phenom who is coming off a rough freshman year. With the bulk of the Tar Heel stats going to the pros, Hairston will get a chance to shine. He was terrible in his 482 freshman minutes and looks more like a SF than a SG. But he should get a chance and gets a mention here, because he was a top 15 prospect coming out of high school.

LaQuentin Miles, Central Arkansas: Big and dominant on defense. Miles needs to improve his offense. In two NCAA seasons he has hit only 1 3-pointer in 6 attempts. He’s knocked around some, playing at SE Missouri State in 2010 before transferring to Central Arkansas last year where he finally settled in. That means he’s the age of most seniors. He has a long way to go, but the potential is there if he can refine his offense.

Michael Snaer, Florida State: He’s been a player to watch since coming into college ball as a top 20 prospect in ‘09. He finally started to show something last year and will be in a make-or-break situation as a senior in 2013.

Draft 2013: Early look at the top PGs

by Ed Weiland

The 2013 PG class looks a little thin right now. There is no returning player who looks like a sure thing as a prospect and the incoming freshman class, which isn’t included here, looks weak. The class was hurt more when TJ McConnell, who may have been the top returning PG prospect, transferred from Duquense to Arizona and will sit out the year because of it. He’s one to keep in mind as a bust out star for 2014 though.

Back to the present, there are three that rate above the crowd going into 2013, Michael Carter-Williams, Nate Wolters and Aaron Craft. There are also a few still-young phenoms who had weak starts, but are certainly capable of improvement. After that there are several juniors and seniors who would be called the usual suspects. Players who have flashed some nice skills, but need to develop more before they’re serious prospects.

It is worth noting that the top PG drafted in 2012, Damian Lillard, was barely a blip on most draft geek radars, including mine, at this time last year. That illustrates how quickly things can turn during one college season. With that in mind, let’s not take these rankings too seriously until the games start and statistics start to pile up in a few months.

Here are the numbers. Players are listed in a very early, very fluid ranking. I’ll get into the incoming freshmen later and integrate them into the rankings once I’ve seen the numbers they put up against NCAA competition.

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	A40	S40	RSB40	A/TO
Michael Carter-Williams	450	389	10.4	8.0	3.0	9.7	3.4
Aaron Craft	554	359	10.9	5.7	3.1	7.3	2.2
Nate Wolters	515	241	23.5	6.6	1.9	7.7	2.7
Lorenzo Brown	476	351	14.5	7.2	2.1	7.9	2.0
Phil Pressey	467	365	13.0	8.0	2.7	6.9	2.6
Ryan Boatright	443	377	14.0	5.4	1.6	6.3	1.8
Tim Frazier	440	314	20.7	6.8	2.6	8.0	1.6
Isaiah Canaan	481	456	22.3	4.3	1.7	5.7	1.9
Kerron Johnson	599	308	18.7	7.1	1.9	6.2	2.2
Trey Burke	490	348	17.6	5.4	1.1	5.7	1.7
Myck Kabongo	429	316	12.2	6.6	1.6	5.5	1.7
Pierre Jackson	502	408	17.7	7.5	2.3	6.1	1.7
DJ Cooper	394	307	17.8	6.9	2.8	7.4	2.0
Shabazz Napier	418	355	15.0	6.7	1.9	6.3	2.1

Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse: He’s still very much a mystery man. His non-scoring numbers were dominant in very low minutes during his freshman season. But the majority of those minutes came early against teams from lesser conferences. That makes him promising, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll perform under the spotlight of starting and running the offense of a high-profile program. Because he flashed dominant ability, I have him at the top. Admittedly his career arc is still very wide, but he has the highest upside of any college PG right now. If there were alternate realities in NCAA basketball, I’d like to see a replay of the 2012 season with Carter-Williams and Dion Waiters playing 1000 minutes each as the Orange starting backcourt.

Aaron Craft, Ohio State: Everything about Craft looks solid other than the fact he doesn’t score frequently enough. With Sullinger and Buford heading for the pros, Craft should get more opportunities to score. If he can up his scoring totals to the 18-20 P40 range and keep his other numbers the same, Aaron Craft will be a very good NBA prospect.

Nate Wolters, South Dakota State: If small college PG Damian Lillard can make himself the 6^th pick in the draft in his 4^th college season, I have to think Wolters, who has more impressive numbers, is at least a potential 1^st-rounder. The biggest concern is his 3-point percentage went from .408 as a soph, down to .241 last year. That’s something he’ll need to fix.

Ryan Boatright, Connecticut; Trey Burke, Michigan; Myck Kabongo, Texas: Three sophs whose hype still dwarfs their numbers. Because they all have talent, they merit a mention. All need to improve their games substantially before I would consider them serious prospects. All are still young enough that I can buy into their potential a little. Kabongo seems to be getting the most offseason hype and would appear to have to best opportunity for improvement with Brown having left. Boatright should benefit from getting his tough freshman year over with, but still has to share the position with Napier.

Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State; Phil Pressey, Missouri; Tim Frazier, Penn State; Isaiah Canaan, Murray State; Kerron Johnson, Belmont; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; DJ Cooper, Ohio; Shabazz Napier, Connecticut: These are all juniors and seniors that have flashed some ability, but also have some serious negatives in their numbers. In most cases the problem is inefficient scoring. Once a player gets two college seasons under his belt, potential has to turn into production. I like both Brown and Pressey right now as potential steady, defense-oriented reserves. For that reason they’d be considered the top 2 in this group. Jackson becomes a decent prospect if he gets his TOs down. Canaan has some promise as a 3-point specialist. The others all have flashed some decent skills, but come up short as prospects. All are capable enough of improvement that they deserve a mention going into the season.

Ryan Harrow, Kentucky: I’m not a huge fan of Harrow, because his 2011 numbers at NC State weren’t at all impressive. I thought he deserved a mention, because he’ll be playing for a coach who has a great recent record of getting PGs drafted in round one. Because Harrow is the age of most juniors, I won’t buy too much into his upside.

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