Carter-Williams and Smart emerge as the top 2013 PG Prospects

One thing I’ve written about extensively is the importance of posting a high RSB40 for guard prospects. That’s combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. My rule is any college PG who posts an RSB40 over 7.0 while also showing an ability to pass and score efficiently is a solid NBA prospect. Any college PG who posts a RSB40 under 6.0 will usually struggle in the NBA, regardless of his other numbers. Had the Timberwolves followed this rule, they wouldn’t have drafted Jonny Flynn in 2009 when Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson were all still on the board. I have made a few tweaks to that rule over the years, the most important being that the steals portion of the number must be over 1.4 and preferably much higher. But in general this has been a pretty safe, simple rule for evaluating guard prospects.

Taken further, PG prospects who post a RSB40 over 9.0 and show an ability to pass and score efficiently are potential NBA superstars. To explain it without the numbers, any college PG who can rebound and block shots on a par of most college forwards is flashing the type of dominant athleticism and ability that translates very well to the NBA. It’s important to score and pass well in addition to posting a high RSB40. Prospects that do all 3 effectively are potential NBA stars.

Because of this, 2 college PGs have caught my eye early in the 2013 season. Both sophomore Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse and freshman Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State are showing early signs of NBA-level athleticism. Here are their numbers through Wednesday:

Both these guys look like very good prospects right now. Smart has logged 173 minutes so far, Carter-Williams 124. While it is early, it is very impressive that both players have a 12+ RSB40 while still posting decent scoring and solid passing numbers. The only freshmen PGs to average a double figure RSB40 with 6+ A40 were Jason Kidd and Penny Hardaway. The only sophomores were Kidd, Hardaway, Rajon Rondo and Erik Murdock. Murdock wasn’t the all-star the other 3 were, but was a serviceable NBA PG who finished top 10 in assists twice and steals 3 times. If both players maintain this pace for the season, they’ll find themselves in pretty fast company.

It’s definitely too early to declare Carter-Williams and Smart as the 2^nd and 3^rd coming of Jason Kidd. But their histories before this year suggest both should continue to post an excellent RSB40. As a freshman playing behind a loaded, veteran backcourt Carter-Williams logged 269 minutes with a 9.7 RSB40, high assists and shaky, but not terrible scoring. That’s pretty much what he’s been as the starter this year. Smart’s only history coming in was 20 minutes in one HS all-star game where he grabbed 5 boards and blocked a shot. HS all-star games aren’t the best place to evaluate prospects. But the fact that Smart flashed similar ability to what he has shown so far at OK State suggests this is his real level of ability. In addition both bring good NBA size to the PG position, Carter-Williams is 6’5”, Smart is 6’4”.

The only question with both players is whether they can improve their offense enough to go from dominant athlete to dominant player. It won’t be an easy jump, but I’m optimistic both can get there. The main reason is offensive skills have historically been much easier to develop than defensive skills. Another reason to be optimistic is the only place both players come up real short so far is 3-point shooting. That’s the easiest skill for any prospect to develop.

Either way, Smart and Carter-Williams have established themselves as the nation’s top 2 PG prospects in the early going. No other freshman PG has stepped in and performed even close to the level Smart has. Of the returning PGs, Aaron Craft has struggled so far with an increased offensive load. Lorenzo Brown continues to struggle with offense and Trey Burke just doesn’t have the defensive numbers to consider him a top prospect. Seniors Pierre Jackson and Nate Wolters are off to good starts, but still look like NBA role players at best. Ryan Harrow can’t seem to get on the court.

Did I mention that it’s still very early in the season? I think I did and that’s an important thing to keep in mind when evaluating the play of any prospect in November. Both Smart and Carter-Williams could go either way at this point. A December shooting slump could bury any player and historically erratic scorers like Carter-Williams are especially prone to such sorry streaks. That’s why I generally wait until January to make an official top 60 prospect list. But early on both Marcus Smart and Michael Carter-Williams have put themselves on the map as players to watch.

NBA Draft 2013: Early Ranking of the Freshmen Centers

I believe the story of the 2013 draft will be the big men, specifically the freshmen big men. This class had 11 centers in the top 40 overall players. That’s an unheard of number. Considering the love NBA teams always show for big men in the draft and the fact that 5 of the last 6 top overall picks have been freshmen, I think it’s pretty clear these 11 prospects will be watched closely and will be the story of the year for draft watchers.

With that in mind I want to get an early start on ranking these players. This list is only for the freshmen 11. All the rankings I do before March should be considered fluid. This very early list is more than that. It should be considered fluid that will be shaken up, poured into a river and sent down some rapids and falls before it flows to the shore in March and takes a final form after the tournament.

1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky: The Wildcats have some issues that may keep them from repeating, but Noel has been as good as advertised. His defensive numbers so far are off the charts, that he doesn’t even need to score in order to get into the top 5. He’s passing the ball like a young Bill Russell and his offense has been surprisingly good. As a rebounder he’s been OK so far, at 11.0 R40. That’s a  number that often fades for big men as the season goes on, but in Noel’s case that might not happen. He had good rebounding games against Alex Len and Mason Plumlee, a couple of likely lottery picks. That’s a good early sign. Even if his R40 slips below 10.0, his other skills make him a great prospect. Right now he’s established himself as a pretty strong early favorite to become the top overall pick.
2. Cameron Ridley, Texas: There are some negatives with Ridley. He’s been turnover prone early on and at .333 in 18 FT attempts, he’s a threat to Andre Drummond’s pathetic .295 FT pct mark last year. But looking at the good side if the ledger, Ridley has been pretty impressive. He’s been a solid rebounder and shot blocker who knows how to get to the line. Those are 3 skills that are hard for center prospects to develop. An early turnover problem usually fixes itself. An ability to rebound and block shots is pretty constant and Ridley appears to have that going for him.
3. Caleb Tarczewski, Arizona: He’s hitting .600 on 2-pointers and his defensive numbers are great so far. His rebounding is minimally acceptable at 10.0 R40. Tarczewski’s Wildcats have played only three games, all against weak competition. The schedule toughens up in November and we’ll learn more about Tarczewski then.
4. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh: Adams has posted some excellent numbers, if we ignore the poor rebounding. Adams is at 8.8 R40. The problem is rebounding and shot blocking have historically been a more difficult skill to improve than scoring or passing. Because this is for only 118 minutes, it isn’t time to freak out just yet. But the low rebound rate is a bad sign for Adams. The important thing to remember here is that at this early point in the season a couple of double figure rebound games will put Adams right back where he needs to be.
5. Adam Woodbury, Iowa: Good, but hardly a great start. His early numbers show Woodbury as a solid all-around player with no glaring weaknesses. That’s good, but he also lacks any big number that blows me away. Because he was the lowest ranked center in the top 40, there are some lingering doubts that he can keep this pace up.
6. Mitch McGary, Michigan: McGary is listed as a PF, but he’s also listed at 6’10 250, so I’ll call him a center. At 17.3 R40 McGary has been the best rebounder of this group by a large margin. He has also been a decent scorer and has gotten a lot of steals in low minutes. His blocks are low and that will have to improve.
7. Isaiah Austin, Baylor: He’s been slowed by an ankle injury so his numbers might be a little suppressed. What he has going for him is the fact that he’s the only one in this group that has flashed 3-point range. Such a skill doesn’t make a prospect a pro in itself, but is a nice skill to bring to the combine. Like a lot of this group his low rate of blocks is a concern.
8. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky: Good shot blocker and scorer, weak rebounder. He may have to wait a year to shine as 2013 is shaping up as the year of Noel and Goodwin in Lexington. Next year’s Wildcat freshmen class already has 3 of the top 5 players in the nation committed. All are perimeter guys and having a holdover “veteran” as a force in the middle should be a good thing for all.
9. Shaquille Cleare, Maryland: Like Cauley-Stein, Claire finds himself behind a top prospect at center. For him it’s sophomore Alex Len. His numbers so far have been OK. There’s some good and some bad. My guess is his opportunity to shine will come next year after Len heads for the NBA.1
10. DuJuan Coleman, Syracuse: As his play in the all-star games suggested, he’s a pretty good rebounder. That’s about all I can say about his play so far though. He’s the only prospect here with a FG pct. under .500. He hasn’t blocked shots well in the early going. There’s still some promise here, but he has work to do.
11. Tony Parker, UCLA: Parker is another guy playing behind a center, Joshua Smith, who is a potential first rounder. In the early going he’s been an OK scorer, with few other numbers that impress. He could be another one whose time will come next year.

ROTY Watch

This year I’m going to start an occasional look at the top candidates for Rookie-of-the-year. While it’s kind of silly to start projecting the outcome of such awards in November, it might help me with the draft previews to keep a closer look at the rookies. Also everyone else is doing such lists so Hoopsanalyst may as well join the fray.

The 2013 class so far is playing out as expected, though some individuals have surprised me. Davis is showing great promise. Behind him there are a mix of surprises and disappointments, but no other player who looks like a surefire star just yet. They remain an intriguing group that should be fun to watch develop. To be sure it’s very early. One thing I’m fairly certain of is there’s a rookie languishing on a bench somewhere who will step in and become a big contributor fairly soon.

1. Anthony Davis. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is the rookie with the best long term future and remains the top bet for ROTY. He missed some time with a concussion, but the early numbers suggest Davis is everything we thought he was. He’s 5^th in the league in blocks, a place he should hold onto or improve. He’s one of the top per minute scorer among rookies. He’s the top rebounding rookie. The concussion may have him behind Lillard in the “if the ROTY were awarded today based on stats so far” lists, but Davis remains by far the best long term prospect and the top bet for the award.
2. Damian Lillard, Portland: Lillard leads all rookies in PPG and minutes per game. Those are the most important stats for a ROTY candidate. Because there isn’t another legit PG on the Blazers roster, it seems likely he’ll continue to get 38 minutes per game and continue to pour in points. This makes him a legit threat to Davis for ROTY. I believed it was a mistake to hand an NBA PG job to guy player who just a year ago had been a high-scoring small college combo guard whose passing skills were moderate at best. Early returns suggest I’ll be eating crow, or crowfu as I’m a vegan, on this opinion. His passing still has a ways to go, but Lillard is clearly an NBA scorer who has helped make the Blazers a borderline playoff contender. That Lillard has settled in so quickly and effectively is a testament to his smarts and ability.
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte: He’s one of the best players on a team that’s looking like one of the league’s best stories for 2013 and that will mean something when the awards are handed out. Charlotte has a winning record after 7 games, following a year they set the record for lowest winning percentage. It’s early for both the team and the player. The Bobcat’s roster still has a talent deficit problem. Kidd-Gilchrist seems unlikely to rack up the scoring totals necessary to win the award. But should the Bobcats keep this up and sneak into the playoffs, some voters may be willing to appreciate the all-around contributions Kidd-Gilchrist brought to such an effort
4. Dion Waiters, Cleveland: His start has featured flashes of greatness, but also some games where he shot 3-16 or 5-15. His game against the Clippers was one of the best performances by a rookie so far this year. He’s a scorer on a team that needs points, so it’s no stretch at all to see him as a 20+ PPG guy based on his college stats and early returns. But if the games with inefficient shooting pile up, he could find himself on the bench more often. Right now he could go either way.
5. Harrison Barnes, Golden State: He had been invisible until the last couple of games when he led the team scoring in a couple of badly needed Warrior wins. If such performances become commonplace, he’ll get into the discussion. I’m still leery of Barnes as a long term force in the league. He will score points on occasion, but the rest of his game remains weak. He’s still posting the weak defense and passing numbers that marked his time at North Carolina.
6. Andre Drummond, Detroit: So far he’s been impressive. In only 15 minutes per game he’s hitting 70% of his shots and is rebounding at a much higher rate than he did at UConn last year. It looks like they’re taking things slowly with Drummond. While that will cost him a shot at the ROTY, it’s probably a good thing for his long term development. Long term his future looks much better than it did on draft day. This is a case where getting out of college and into the pros was clearly the best thing for the player.
7. Bradley Beal, Washington: A very slow start. Beal has hit 31% of his 2-pointers and the Wizards are winless. He should get this right, or at least improve on it. He’ll find himself on the bench if he doesn’t. As the 3^rd overall pick, he’ll get more of a chance to get it right than most.
8. Maurice Harkless and Andrew Nicholson, Orlando: The Magic are eventually going to look to the future and will want to get a feel for whether or not their 2013 rookies are going to be part of their future. Both have shown some promise in limited minutes and should get more time.
9. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto: He’s in a similar situation to Drummond. That’s a young center destined to spend the year getting low minutes with an eye on the future. He doesn’t have the eye-popping numbers that Drummond has posted, but he’s been OK.
10. Jae Crowder, Dallas: Crowder has put in some nice minutes as a Maverick reserve. His time could be trimmed once Nowitzki returns. Whether the minutes continue or not, Crowder looks like he can be an effective rotation player.

Quick Thoughts

1. Heckuva of a Job Brownie!: The big news of this week has come out of Los Angeles where the Lakers have canned Mike Brown and spurned an apparently willing and able Phil Jackson in favor of Mike D’Antoni.  There is so much going on here, so let’s break it down piece-by-piece:

-Should Brown have been fired?

Certainly, the early returns were not good but it’s pretty hard to envision a scenario where a team could possibly conclude that a coach is lost after a five-game stretch to open a season.   Brown had done some strange offensive things like trying to impose the Princeton offense on a team that would seem to thrive either running with Steve Nash or in isolation for Kobe Bryant.   Despite this strange idea, the Lakers’ problem with Brown was not the offense (which was reasonably efficient) but the defense that couldn’t stop anyone.  On top of that, Dwight Howard looks a little rusty on defense, so there is every reason to believe the defense would improve under a coach like Brown, who was always more defense focused, once Howard got his sea legs.   In addition, a quick firing like this is pretty unprecedented (no coach has been let go so soon after the start the season since Dolph Schayes in 1971), which creates a tumult and sense of directionless that the players will have to deal with.

The Lakers also cut the cord on Brown before some winnable games without a new coach ready to come in his place.  In the absence of any identifiably abysmal coaching moves, it seems that Brown must’ve ticked off the wrong guy: either ownership or Kobe, the only parties with the power and the temperament to fire Brown so quickly.  Objectively, the firing was clearly too early.  Brown is a competent enough coach and the team thought pretty highly of him last year when he was hired.  He deserved at least some leash before being fired.  This isn’t a supreme injustice (Brown will be paid a lot not to coach) but this seems unfair and such capriciousness is not a good way to run an organization.

-Did the Lakers hire the right guy?

D’Antoni is a pretty good coach but I’m not sure he is the perfect fit either.  Remember the problem here was defense and not offense.  In his Nash Years and later with the Knicks, D’Antoni teams were almost always much better offensively than defensively except for last year’s Knicks (when D’Antoni was let go in the middle of the year).  At least D’Antoni can be expected to establish a smoother offense than Brown had and should figure out how to use Nash with Kobe a little better.  We can expect offensive improvement going forward either way but the defense may still be an issue.

Jackson, the best coach of the last 20 years or so, would have been much better here.  He has blended stars well in the past and his teams always play a nice defensive system.  Of course, the decision is not just who is the better coach in the abstract but also includes what the coaches were demanding in salary and benefits.  The word was that Jackson thought he had maximum leverage and put out some huge demands (part ownership, taking off some road games).  I don’t know if this is true but you can’t kill the Lakers for wanting to have less onerous contract of D’Antoni, particularly on the ownership demand.  If Jackson were the defense between a title and no title, the Lakers should’ve paid him but I don’t see the Lakers winning a title as currently constituted with either coach (they seem a little long in the tooth to beat OKC).

-Did the Lakers treat Phil Jackson poorly in the process?

Jackson and his agent have very publicly let the Lakers know that they feel screwed.  Jackson thought he had another day to mull it over and then had the offer pulled off the table.  I agree the Lakers seemed to go out of their way to irk Jackson but I can’t say I’m crying for him.  Jackson has never been particularly sensitive to the feelings of his own management or other coaches in the past (remember Phil’s quasi-campaign for the Knicks job in 1999 while Jeff Van Gundy was still coaching the team?).   The more interesting question is whether Jackson might come back to another team in the future.  I don’t see a team built for him now but this could change by the end of the season.  Stay tuned…

2. To Foul or Not to Foul: In watching the end of last night’s Nets-Celtics game, I came away questioning Avery Johnson’s tactics on one particular issue.  The Nets were up by four with 19 seconds left the Celtics had the ball.  Johnson then instructed his team to intentionally foul the Celts to avoid a three-pointer.  First, the Nets fouled Paul Pierce near midcourt and he promptly hit two free throws to cut the lead to two.  After that, the Nets made two free throws and, with eleven seconds left, the Nets did the same thing to Jason Terry, who promptly missed two free throws and the Nets scored two more free throws to ice the game.

Was this really the best way to end the game?  In theory, the strategy worked because Terry missed his shots and the Nets won but this struck me as a really bad path to a win.  Pierce is a career 81% from the line and Terry is 85%.  From three, Pierce is 37% and Terry is 38%.  Aren’t the odds much better that Pierce and/or Terry will miss the threes than the free throws?  If Pierce and Terry hit, the Nets must match the free throws (and avoid a potential stupid turnover) or the Celts will get the ball back with a chance to tie or win.  I understand the fear of the three when up four but the Nets would still have the ball and the lead.  Instead, the Nets stopped the clock and gave the Celts higher percentage shots.  Sure, the Nets had a chance to match the free throws but the odds were much better just playing out the game and daring the Celts to hit a three.  The intentional foul to take away the three makes much more sense when the clock ticks down closer two five seconds left in the game, thereby eliminating the chance of a tie and giving the Celtics no time left to bring the ball up and shoot a three after the Nets are intentionally fouled and shoot foul shots.  Again, Terry missed the free throws here but that is focusing on results and not the process, which seemed quite flawed.

3. What Happened to Dolph?: Finally, the Mike Brown Affair does raise the question of how the heck did Dolph Schayes leave his team after one game back in 1971?  Fortunately, the Sports Illustrated Vault is available to give us the answer.  Schayes, who was a great player for the Syracuse Nats in the 1950s, first coached the Philadelphia 76ers in 1963-64 and lasted three seasons.  The Sixers picked up Wilt Chamberlain under Schayes’ watch and went 55-25 in 1965-66 but lost to Boston 4-1 in the playoffs.  Schayes didn’t get along with Wilt and, after the playoff loss, Schayes was bounced for Alex Hannum (who ultimately won a title with Wilt).

Schayes next job was with the 1970-71 Buffalo Braves, an expansion team (that later became the Clippers).  Buffalo had no talent and, not surprisingly, went 22-60 during that first season.  According to Sports Illustrated, there were player complaints about Schayes’ leadership but he was retained for a second season.  In the 1971-72 pre-season, the Braves looked bad and then lost its opening game to Seattle (another expansion team) by 33, after which Schayes was abruptly fired.  According to owner Paul Snyder, the terrible showing merited firing: “I wasn’t a little disappointed by last year, I was a lot disappointed.  I’m used to running a business and I felt it was the right decision to let Dolph go. So I did it. After the way we played in the first game I felt I would rather sell the franchise than watch another performance like that.”

How did this firing turn out?  Schayes was replaced with scout Johnny McCarthy, who promptly led the team to another 22-win season.  Neither Schayes nor McCarthy were ever NBA head coaches again after that season.

NBA Draft: Is Cody Zeller Worth the Hype?

There’s a lot of hype surrounding Cody Zeller. He’s the college hoops pre-season cover boy for Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Mag. A look at the mocks suggests he’s considered one of the top prospects in the nation. Zeller is pretty much a fixture in the top 5, along with Noel, Muhammad and McAdoo. The mocks will change as the season progresses. Some players will fade and others will emerge. This happens every year and 2013 seems set for more fluidity than usual, due to the abnormally large number of highly-ranked bigs coming into college balls this year.

While their play in the next couple of months will slot the incoming bigs into draft spots, going in Zeller looks attractive. The most important thing he does is score often and efficiently. As a freshman he hit .623 on 2-pointers and scored 21.5 P40, both very impressive numbers for a freshman. Here are other freshmen centers who scored both often and efficiently as college freshmen with their rebounding and blocks numbers:

There’s a clear line here. The great centers as freshmen could score often and efficiently, like Zeller did. They could also rebound well and block at least 4 shots per 40 minutes, two things Zeller falls well short of. The marginal centers finished well under 3.0 blocks per 40 minutes and were poorer rebounders, as is the case with Zeller.

Zeller is still young and has his sophomore season in front of him, so I’ll hold off on declaring him a bust of epic proportions. But he does have a way to go as a prospect. In his defense Cody Zeller isn’t your basic stiff center who specializes in putbacks, rebounds and little else. He isn’t the 2^nd coming of Mirk PeplAcreski. Zeller is a skilled offensive player who can score several different ways. When we compare him to players who were more in the C/PF hybrid mold he stacks up much better:

I included steals here, because it’s a more important stat for PFs than centers. The PF/C crowd is a much friendlier comp to Zeller. He still comes up way short as a rebounder, but his defense doesn’t look so bad next to the likes of NBA all-stars Love, Jamison and Randolph at the same point in their careers.

Zeller’s mission his sophomore year is to improve on his rebounding and defensive numbers and show he can hit some 3-pointers. If he does that he’ll come close to justifying the hype he’s been getting leading up to the 2013 season. Dramatic improvement in rebounding and defense, while not unheard of, is not an easy thing for a college big to accomplish. For that reason I’ll remain skeptical of Zeller as a top prospect until he improves his rebounding. Early returns are encouraging though, as Zeller posted 10 boards, 3 steals and 2 blocks in just 27 minutes in the Hoosiers season opening win against Bryant. An impressive start in the season opener against Bryant is like a presidential candidate winning the Dixville Notch vote. It’s nice, but hardly a bellweather. More information is needed before I’ll buy into Cody Zeller as a legit top pick.

Bottom line with Cody Zeller is right now he’s not the type of player you draft at #1, plug him in at center or PF and make room in the trophy case for the ROTY, followed by a few inevitable MVPs. There’s nothing in his stats that suggest he’ll be a dominator in the mold of Webber, Malone or Love, let alone one of the all-time great centers. There are even signs that he could become a colossal bust if drafted #1, though it’s best not to go that far until the returns from his sophomore season are in.

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