Bowie/Jordan, A Look Back

Is Sam Bowie a tragic figure?  Traditional lore paints him either as: (a) they guy who was taken over Michael Jordan and who crapped out or (b) the guy who overcome crippling injuries to become a pretty good center.  With the recent Bowie article and documentary on ESPN, the focus has returned to Bowie.  I haven’t seen the documentary but the article lets out a revelation that Bowie knew of potential leg problems in his pre-draft physical with the Blazers but did not disclose the pain he felt.   Aside from Bowie’s physical with Portland and some details of his childhood, the article provide much in the way of some the other details of his career.  Let’s go a little deeper and see if we can find a few more interesting factoids and fill in a few holes:

Bowie was an old draft pick and his rookie numbers were only okay

While many more players lasted all four years back in the early 1980s, Bowie, was already 23 his rookie season (and turned 24 in March of his rookie year) because he redshirted two years with a broken leg.  Bowie missed one year with a cast and when that didn’t work, he had a bone graft from his hip to help fix the leg, causing him to miss yet another season.  Injuries aside, one would expect a 23-year old to be pretty close to fully formed as a player.  Both Patrick Ewing and Ralph Sampson were also 23-year old rookies but they looked like much more promising prospects as rookies.  Take a look at rookie stats of all three:

-Bowie: 29.2 mpg, 10.0 ppg, .537 FG%, 8.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.3 topg, 2.7 bpg, 15.7 PER

-Ewing: 35.4 mpg, 20.0 ppg, .474 FG%, 9.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.1 bpg, 3.5 topg, 17.4 PER

-Sampson: 32.8 mpg, 21.0 ppg, .523 FG%, 11.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.4 bpg, 3.6 topg, 20.1 PER

Continue reading Bowie/Jordan, A Look Back…

NBA Draft 2013: Sniper/Defenders

It’s still early in the draft process and rather than rank the players, I like to let things play out at least through December. Two months is enough time for hot streaks will fade and cold starts to heat up and we’ll just have a more accurate view of what exactly is here in the class of 2013. I’ll start with the rankings in a couple of weeks. In the meantime I wanted to stay somewhat engaged by looking at recent draft success stories and try to determine if there would be any similar stories in 2013. I’ve already looked at Kenneth Faried and Chandler Parsons. Next on the list is Spurs SG Danny Green.

Green has been averaging close to 30 minutes per game for a Spurs team that is currently among the best in the league. He’s hitting the 3-pointer at a 37% clip, averaging 10 PPG and providing stellar perimeter defense. Basically he’s successfully filling the Bruce Bowen role on the Spurs. The NBA is quite a leap for Green who spent his college career as the 4^th option at North Carolina behind Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington. It’s rare that players who are the 4^th leading scorer on their college teams as seniors make any impact in the NBA. Green brought solid numbers to be sure. As a senior he shot .517 on 2-pointers and .418 on 3-pointers. He scored 17.6 P40 with an RSB40 of 10.5 and an A/TO of 1.7. He looked like a solid prospect, except for the 17.6 P40. Senior SGs who score below 20.0 P40 rarely make an impact in the NBA. This has been one of the most consistent rules for prospects over the past couple of decades. This has been the case regardless of how stellar the other numbers are.

Green was in a unique situation at North Carolina though. He was already playing the Bowen role on a college team of future 1^st rounders. The problem there is most NBA role players, even Bruce Bowen, were stars in college. What should have been apparent with Green is that he was proficient at every skill necessary to become a Bowen-type of player. As his numbers suggested, his defense was stellar, he could hit the 3-pointer, and he didn’t commit many turnovers. Most important he showed a willingness to step back and play an important role on a great team rather than trying to become a star.

Few teams attract the mother lode of talent North Carolina does, so few teams would ever have such a talented player as the #4 option. It’s also extremely rare for a group as talented as the 2009 Tar Heels to have played together for 3 seasons like they did. Because Green’s situation was so rare, I doubt there will be too many similar situations to his. In looking for the next Danny Green, I looked for players who could both hit the 3-pointer and put up good defensive stats. The Sniper/Defenders I’ll call them. This is the type of player that works extremely well next to a superstar. Such a player does the heavy lifting on defense and stays out of the way on offense, except when he’s need to drain a 3-pointer. I found 11 such players who have been toiling somewhat anonymously and could become draft bargains as sniper/defenders.

Fuquan Edwin, Seton Hall: This piece is meant to focus on somewhat anonymous players who might be bargains in 2013 or a future draft as sniper/defenders. Edwin would have fit that description coming into the 2013 season. If he continues to play like he has so far, Edwin won’t be anonymous for long. He’ll be a top 10 draftee. He has been scoring often and efficiently from inside and outside. He’s corrected his passing weakness and has continued to play solid defense. Definitely a player to watch once the conference schedules start.

Briante Weber, VCU: According to the team’s website, Weber recorded a steal in 7% of his team’s defensive possessions as a freshman in 2012, which was the highest figure since 2003. His steals are way up this year, to an eye-popping 6.4 S40 so he’s probably ahead of that pace. He’s also an extremely low turnover guy. That’s the good part. Weber doesn’t score much or attempt many shots, but has improved his efficiency a lot so far as a soph. His .389 on 3-pointers is for only 18 attempts. He hit only .250 last year, so he has a long ways to go as a scorer. Another negative is he’s very slight, at 6’2” 165. But a player this good on defense with such freakish athleticism is better called sinewy than skinny. VCU’s havoc style of play keeps minutes low and makes it difficult for any player to stand out, but Weber has the type of dominant stats that suggest he has an NBA future. It might take a little more time and development to figure out exactly what type of future that is. He is also flashing some serious potential as an NBA PG.

Bernard Thompson, Florida Gulf Coast: Another sinewy soph who has stepped up his game nicely. Thompson is a more accomplished scorer than Weber. He has good defensive numbers so far, but because they’re up so much from his freshman year, I’d like to see him maintain this level for a while before I call him a solid defender. Same goes for his early proficiency with the 2-pointer. He also needs to get to turnovers down. Right now he’s a young player with some work to do who has flashed enough that he merits watching.

DJ Seeley, Cal State-Fullerton: Like a lot of players that follow, Seeley seems to have found a groove after an up-and-down career that included a transfer. After two seasons of minimal impact at Cal, he ended up at Fullerton and became their top scorer. He was something of a mad bomber last year and that has continued in his senior year. But he’s also upped his steals a lot, improved his 2-point pct. and is passing the ball better. At this point he might be better considered a combo than a SG. He’s a 23 year-old 5^th-year senior and those guys should always be analyzed with caution.

Derrick Marks, Boise State: Marks has led the Broncos to a surprising start in his sophomore year. His offense is erratic, but he does get a lot of steals and has some potential as a gunner. He has shown some good skills, but has a ways to go. Right now he’s nothing more than a name to keep in mind for the draft of ’14 or ’15.

Ramon Galloway, LaSalle: A senior with a transfer (South Carolina) in his past, Galloway is having his best year. He’s a terrific shooter, hitting .435 this year after a .442 mark in 2012. His defensive numbers have improved also. Right now he’s a player who followed up 3 ordinary seasons with a great start to his final year. As is the case with Seeley, I’m leery of any player who breaks out as a senior. But such players can’t be ignored.

Austin Hollins, Minnesota: Hollins is in a situation that’s somewhat similar to Danny Green’s. He’s on one of the top teams in the country and is playing a Bowen-type of role. Now the Gophers of 2013 are just a team that has the potential to land a top 2 or 3 seed, but are only a marginal championship contender and nowhere near the team the ’09 Tar Heels were. What I like about Hollins is he’s a strong defense/low turnover player. His offense has been too inefficient to consider him much of a pro prospect. If he can get back to last year from behind the arc, when he hit 37%, he’ll look much better as a potential NBA sniper/defender.

Jordan Swing, UAB: A 4^th-year junior who is a year away from dreaded 5^th-year senior status. He has posted across the board improvement so far this year. He doesn’t have the dominant S40 number most of the others have, but 1.9 is still pretty solid. Like the other listed here, his future depends on whether he can maintain and build on what has been a great start.

Kevin Foster, Santa Clara: Another mad bomber, who is also a 5^th-year senior. This is the first year Foster has posted an S40 anywhere near this dominant, so it should be taken with a grain of sea salt until he maintains it into February. His biggest issue has been inefficient scoring from all over the court. His 3-point percentage is down to .333 after a career high of .386 last year. He’ll need a repeat of the .386 and to maintain the high S40 to get a call on draft day.

Robert Crawford, Central Arkansas: A 5^th-year senior, Crawford missed a couple seasons along the way and only logged 499 minutes total of NCAA court time coming into this season. I’m having trouble finding out what his story is, because Google searches are muddled by some annoying Australian poet with the same name. I did find that he played some JUCO ball. He’s off to a great start in his final season. That’s good, but he has a lot to prove and a short time to do it.

Charles Carmouche, LSU: A 5^th-year senior playing at his 3^rd school. He’s never been a high volume scorer and this year is no different. He isn’t a case like Danny Green, whose skills were obscured by a talented roster. Carmouche has struggled to stand out on ordinary teams while attending New Orleans, Memphis and now LSU. For that reason he’s beyond a long shot to make the NBA. What he has going for him is a career of solid defensive numbers and a decent ability to hit a 3-pointer.

NBA Draft 2013: Well Rounded SFs

The emergence of Chandler Parsons as a solid, multi-skilled NBA SF and a Most Improved Player candidate for 2013 is something of an anomaly. Parsons, in only his 2^nd NBA season, is currently a top 3 player on a decent Rockets team. He’s among the team leaders in minutes, points, rebounds and assists. The reason his success is something of a surprise is Parsons was a role player in college, never finishing as higher than the 3^rd leading scorer during 4 seasons on what was always a pretty ordinary Florida team. SF prospects that don’t score much in college generally face a tough NBA road, regardless of their other stats. The only player to buck this trend was Andre Iguodala who came into the NBA off a sophomore year with a talented Arizona team. Because the best player on any college team is also almost always the leading scorer, prospects tend to score a lot of points.

The number I generally look for is 18 points per 40 minutes. That seems to be the safe number for SF prospects who hit all the other benchmarks. While Chandler was a solid all-around player, he never scored much in college. Here are some other recent major college players who fit the same profile of low volume scorers with a strong all-around game.

For those who don’t know, ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. I use it in evaluating SFs, because it’s a good indicator of how well-rounded a game the player brings. Anything above 6.0 is considered exceptional. None of the others had the success Parsons seems to be headed for. The only other player to find a niche is Mbah a Moute, a solid role player for the Bucks, but hardly the core player Parsons is looking like. Williams and Wright were both first round busts. The others were ignored on draft day, even though it’s hard to say Parsons was a better prospect by simply comparing their college stats. Where Parsons tops the group is scoring efficiency. It isn’t by much, but he and Saunders were the only two players who were efficient scorers from both inside the arc and out.

So as I did with Kenneth Faried last week, I wanted to scour the 2013 college forward crop for the next potential Chandler Parsons. I didn’t find too many anonymous players, but did find some SFs who are low-volume scorers with a diverse set of skills that are worth an early mention. Players are listed in order of how they rank as prospects at this very early point of the 2013 draft analysis.

Otto Porter, Georgetown: Porter has been too good to be an anonymous prospect like Parsons was 2 years ago, but he does fit the low-volume scorer/multi-skilled SF profile well. Plus he’s a damn exciting player with a great future and those guys are just fun to speculate about, so I’m including him here. Porter’s numbers are up across the board from his promising freshman year. Especially impressive is his 3-pointer falling at a .438 clip. He’s probably a better scorer than he has shown, because the Hoya offense tends to encourage balanced scoring and suppress individual stats. Should Porter keep this pace up and enter the draft this spring, he’ll be a lottery pick.

Kyle Anderson, UCLA: Highly-touted freshman whose offense has been abysmal in the early going. His non-scoring skills have been so stellar that he’s something of a point PF. He rebounds like a PF, passes like a PG, but unfortunately scores as efficiently as stats geek might were he ever permitted to suit up. Anderson is still very young and I have to think his scoring will improve. If it improves enough he’s a potential dominator. Anderson is ranked 2^nd overall on this list because of his upside, but his offense has a long way to go.

Andre Roberson, Colorado: One of the best rebounders in the country, but at 6’7 210 he’s more the size of an SF. I had expected him to step up more as a scorer this year, but so far his offense has been similar to what it was his first couple of years. Even with the weak scoring, I like him as a prospect. He does defense and rebounding as well as any SF in the nation. His offense and passing have shown improvement. While he has some work to do, he’s the type of player I’d be happy to land late in round one with the hope he’d develop.

Sam Dekker, Wisconsin: Another freshman who is off to an impressive start. He has the same stat problem as Porter in that he plays in an offense that encourages balanced scoring and also suppresses stats with a slow pace. For that reason it wouldn’t be at all out of line to up his per 40 minutes numbers by 10%. He’s also a freshman early in his career, meaning he could go either way at this point. Upside has him this high. We’ll see where he goes with it.

Rodney Williams, Minnesota: Williams is a senior having his best year. He has his P40 above the magic 18.0 for the first time in his career. That combined with his already stellar all-around numbers makes him a decent prospect in my book. The best thing he could do for his career now is start hitting the 3-pointer at a better rate.

Mike Moser, UNLV: Unfortunately his career has been full of speed bumps. He left UCLA after his freshman year and sat out a year before busting out at UNLV last year. This year however, a slow start has him behind super rookie Anthony Bennett in the Rebel pecking order and he’s looking at a month on the shelf with a dislocated elbow. He’s a 22 year-old junior who has one full year of college ball, so the clock isn’t working in his favor. Like Roberson, he’s SF size with PF numbers. His rebounding/defensive numbers are terrific, but his offense is shaky.

Branden Dawson, Michigan State: Another good player on a balance-scoring team. Dawson is just a soph who looks more like a PF right now. If he can pull the same trick former Spartan Draymond Green did and develop a decent 3-point shot, he’ll improve his draft stock by the time he’s a senior. It would also help if he would refine his passing game to resemble Green’s.

Chris Udofia, Denver: Udofia is one of those players with such an odd size/stats mix that it is hard to get a handle on him as a prospect. He’s SG size, at 6’6” 200. He blocks shots better than most big men, but is a below-average rebounder for a SF. He’s an efficient scorer inside the arc, but can’t hit a 3-pointer consistently and remains something of a low-volume scorer at least for a prospect. He’s an excellent passer. Udofia is still just a junior and may be able to put everything together before he’s done. Right now he’s a good college player with a size/skills package that just doesn’t translate into a good NBA prospect.

Ian Hummer, Princeton: He’s a good passer/defender and that’s always a nice combination for a SF prospect. His offense remains weak as he hasn’t built on the promise he showed as a junior. Also working against Hummer is he’s a small college player and they generally need to be more dominant than he’s been. Hummer is good enough to be worth a mention, but is still a long shot.

Milton Jennings, Clemson: Jennings is a senior who was somewhat anonymous until this year when his early play has upped his game across the board just enough to get noticed. He has PF size, at 6’9” 225 if not PF numbers. Because his offense has been inefficient until this year I have my doubts he can continue the pace he’s on. Should he keep this pace up, Milton Jennings and the rest of the players listed here might find the NBA more welcoming thanks to the success of Chandler Parsons.

Are there any Farieds in the 2013 Draft Class?

Kenneth Faried was the find of the historically weak 2011 draft. He went from Morehead State to starting PF for the Nuggets. In his second year he’s top 10 in the league in rebounds, rebounding pct, and FG pct. His dunks have become must see You Tube viewing. While I can’t say we’ll look back in 20 years and consider Kenneth Faried the best player to come out of the 2011 draft, he is the early leader in career win shares.

Faried isn’t alone in having been a bargain as a small college PF. A trend in the NBA draft over the past 30 years is small college power forwards have been a heck of a bargain. Here’s a look at some small college and mid-major PFs that were draft bargains going back to 1980. The redraft column gives an idea of where each player would have gone had there been a redraft based on career production. The number reflects where each player ranks in his draft class in career win shares. The redraft number probably isn’t completely accurate in each case. That’s not important though. The point is that all these players were wildly undervalued going into the draft.

I kept this to small and mid-major colleges. Penn State competed in the Atlantic 10 before joining the Big 10 in 1990, so Brickowski qualifies. Not all small college PFs were bargains over this time either. Bill Garnett, Tellis Frank, Randy White, Carlos Rogers and Gary Trent were all small college PFs drafted in the top half of round one and none experienced much NBA success.  In the case of top 10 picks Charles Oakley and Vin Baker, the experts got it right. Jason Thompson is another recent draftee worth a mention. He was drafted 12^th in the deep 2008 draft. It was probably a tad high in retrospect, but he was hardly a bust.

I can’t say why there was an 11-year gap in such occurrences between 1996 and 2007. The off the top of my head theory would be that the major colleges became better at identifying talent and players previously destined for small colleges were recruited by the majors. Another theory is the influx of foreign pushed such players out of the draft completely. It was also a time of players heading straight to the pros from high school, but I can’t see where this would have been a factor.

Millsap and Faried have started this trend all over again and it makes sense for me to keep an eye out for such players. I look for players who are ridiculously effective rebounders, score at an efficient rate and get a lot of steals and blocks. Because I’m focusing on small college players here, similar players like Jack Cooley and Arselan Kazemi aren’t included. I also omitted Tony Mitchell of North Texas, because he’s known quantity, already likely to be drafted in the top 10. I was looking at players who are toiling somewhat anonymously. The list below shows a group of some small college PFs flashing some NBA potential early in the season. Players are commented on in loose order of what I would consider their prospect ranking at this early stage.

TaShawn Thomas, Houston: I’m not sure if Houston, competing in Conference USA, qualifies as a mid-major or not. I do know that Thomas is a pretty impressive young prospect. I liked him a lot as a freshman last year and he has picked up where he left off. Scoring is his weakness, but he’s only a sophomore.

Jamelle Hagins, Delaware: He’s the most likely player in this group to be wearing an NBA uniform next year. He’s a senior with a solid history of production coming into 2013. If he can keep his 2PP over or near .600, it would be huge for him, as scoring efficiency has been the weak spot in his game. His numbers so far in 2013 have been posted against one of the tougher early schedules in the country, so I don’t expect him to fade too much as the season progresses.

Jordan Reves, Texas-Arlington: Reves is a senior who is getting 30+ minutes per game for the first time in his career. His first 3 seasons featured terrific per minute numbers in rebounds, steals and blocks. He’s also been a solid scorer, with a 2PP well over .500 every year. His court time had been limited by foul trouble. So far he has corrected that problem this season.

Ed Daniel, Murray State: Similar to Reves in that he’s a senior coming off 3 reasonably productive, but foul-prone seasons. So far he has the fouling under control and is seeing more court time because of it. His rebounding has been up and down during his career. So far in the 2013 season he’s been an excellent boarder and he’ll need to keep that up.

Jordan Clarke, Drake: A 5^th-year senior who is like the rest of the crowd here. His first 3 years were marked by solid production. He played limited minutes because of a propensity for fouling. As a senior he’s been kicking butt and fouling less. His NBA chances will hinge on whether or not he can keep it up. Unlike some of the others his defensive strength is he’s more of a ball hawk than a shot blocker. That’s not a good thing, but not a fatal flaw either. The 5^th-year senior thing is also a hindrance to his chances.

Jyles Smith, Savannah St: His .250 2PP is an early season anomaly. His career number is around .500 and it should be there or better by season’s end. Smith is a junior who has struggled with fouls and that hasn’t been corrected. He’s where Reves and Daniel were a year ago. A very capable PF who needs to cut down the fouls.

Michael Kessens, Longwood: Longwood freshman PF who is off to a great start. Way early for him. He could go either way at this point, but seems unlikely to enter the 2013 draft. Small college players rarely enter the draft early, so probably best make Kessens a player to watch for 2016, unless he really busts out.

OD Anosike, Siena: Good PF name and a great rebounder. Unfortunately his defensive numbers haven’t added up over his career. If he can fix that in this, his senior season, he’ll be drafted. I’m never optimistic about a player improving his defensive numbers, but it isn’t unheard of.

Michale Kyser, Louisiana Tech: Kyser is a sophomore who is a ways away from being a prospect. He’s a great shot blocker, but the rest of his game needs work. He plays at Louisiana Tech though, which is basically mid-major PF University, boasting Karl Malone, PJ Brown, Paul Millsap and top 10 bust Randy White as alums. That alone gives him some cred. Whether he’s the next Karl Malone or another Randy White, he is a Louisiana Tech Bulldog and that has meant something.

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