NBA Draft 2012: Grades

by Ed Weiland

This draft is Anthony Davis followed by a whole lot of meh. There’s a lot of journeyman depth. There are a lot of decent prospects, but few good ones. For that reason the 2012 draft is a tough one to evaluate and grade. There will be some players who develop into rotation regulars and even stars though and I’m going to try and sort that out right here.

I grade on a curve. There will be 3 A’s, 6 B’s, 12 C’s, 6 D’s and 3 F’s. Grades are given based mainly on how much each team used their 2012 draft pick to improve their lot, with points deducted if they could have done better. Any team that adds John Shurna, Tony Mitchell or Ken Horton as an UFA, gets a + added to their grade.

A: New Orleans Hornets: Drafted Anthony Davis with their own pick. Drafted Austin Rivers with a pick acquired in the Chris Paul trade.  I’ve heard Duncan and Garnett mentioned as Davis comps, but the one I like is Olajuwon. Both Olajuwon and Davis were late to play center position. Both were quick learners. Olajuwon developed his legendary quickness playing soccer goalie. Davis’ quickness came from playing backcourt before the growth spurt. No matter which great he eventually most resembles, getting Anthony Davis is worth an A. This is such a solid A that the fact they reached wildly for Austin Rivers with the pick they got in exchange for trading away the franchise’s best ever player, Chris Paul, can’t bring it down.

A: LA Clippers: The Clippers won a couple of trades involving 2012 draft picks, so they get an A. Their own #1 was dealt back in 2010 for Eric Bledsoe. I would call that a net positive, as Bledsoe is a promising young guard and there wasn’t much better available at pick #22. They also held Minnesota’s #1 in the Marco Jaric trade. Jaric clearly isn’t missed. This pick was used as part of the package that brought Chris Paul to LA and made the team a contender. Trading a protected #1 is a gamble for both teams. The Clippers had two of those situations resolved in the 2012 draft and won both of them.

A: Houston Rockets: Drafted Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Terrence Jones. One pick was theirs, one was acquired for Chase Budinger and one was acquired for Tracy McGrady. Dwight Howard is sort of hovering over these three picks. Reports are rampant that the Rockets horded picks with an eye on bringing Howard in. Whether they deal for Howard or not, I like what happened here. If the picks eventually bring Howard over, that’s a big win. If they just keep the players it isn’t a bad thing either. In a draft like the 2012 version, with every player being so even, quantity is better than quality. This was exactly how this draft should have been worked. By getting 3 picks and using them all on solid players, as opposed to overhyped former high school phenoms, the Rockets really upped their odds of making a big score in this draft. That I like all the players they drafted just makes the A that much more solid.

B: Orlando Magic: Drafted Andrew Nicholson. I love this pick. I know things are bad in Orlando now, but they definitely got one of the best hauls in this draft with Nicholson followed by Kyle O’Quinn in round 2. The future and whatever happens with the franchise player aside, the Magic got a couple of solid players here. That’s a good thing regardless of what else goes down this summer.

B: Denver Nuggets: Evan Fournier: I like the Nuggets, because they draft players I like. It was Lawson 3 years ago, Faried last year and now Fournier. I think they got another steal in Fournier. Add him to one of the best young cores in the league and the future is bright in Denver. Why is it that all the smart teams are in the West?

B: Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal: If the rumors were true and there was a trade on the table bringing Harden to DC straight up for the pick, the Wizards should have jumped. Harden would be a star in Washington. Beal is still something of a project, but is also one of the few players in the draft who is a better than average bet to become a solid player.

B: Dallas Mavericks: Traded pick for 3 later picks that became Jared Cunningham, Bernard James and Jae Crowder: I’m a big Crowder fan. I think the Mavs got a good one with him. What I like though is how they played the draft. This draft should have been about quantity and not quality. All players drafted after #10 were pretty even. Better to get three of them than one. The Mavs got three nice prospects.

B: Boston Celtics: Drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo. Melo came in exchange for a pick that came to the Celtics in the Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins deal. Sullinger is obviously a gamble, but with the 21^st pick there could be a big payoff. The Celtics have been good about getting production from big players drafted later in round one, so I expect both players to contribute something immediately. I don’t see where Melo will be an upgrade on what Perkins gave them, but he does have some potential as a defender and wasn’t a reach at 22.

B: Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson: What I like about Henson is he can come right in and help on the boards and eventually on defense. The Bucks need an inside grinder to go with their mad bombers in the backcourt and Henson was the best one available. That he will help right away gives the Bucks an edge.

C: Memphis Grizzlies: Tony Wroten: Good pick at this point. Wroten is a top 10 talent and there could be a huge payoff in a few years. If he doesn’t make it, all that’s lost is the 25^th pick in a weak draft. I also want to give them credit for using their #2 pick to acquire Marreese Speights, a young big with some potential. This was a good use of the draft by the Grizz.

C: Cleveland Cavaliers: Drafted Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller. Zeller was acquired for 3 later draft picks. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. By Charlotte turning down the rumored deal, the Cavs got more upside in Waiters and kept the 3 later picks. On the flip side, sometimes the worst trades are the ones you make. The Cavs were set to add 3 more decent pieces to their developing young core. Instead they dealt the three picks for the wildly over rated Tyler Zeller. Waiters should improve the team and might become a star. But it could have been a lot better.

C: Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. MKG is a poor man’s Shane Battier at best. Regardless of what you might be hearing about Gilchrist, the truth is second fiddles in college rarely become superstars in the NBA. I doubt very much he’ll be an exception. They should have taken the offer from Cleveland and used the four picks. Charlotte’s best move was to scoop up as many picks as possible, so they could throw as many bodies as possible at the record setting  mess they put on the court last year.

C: Sacramento Kings: Thomas Robinson: Just so I got this straight, the Kings draft a weak defensively, inefficient scoring, rebounding machine to complement DeMarcus Cousins? Okay. At least they’ll be able to brag about leading the league in missed put backs. I like Robinson and have no problem with the value for the pick. It’s just that he seems like terrible fit on this team.

C: LA Lakers: Traded pick to Cleveland for Ramon Sessions: I have no problem with this use of a pick. A contender filled a gaping hole in their lineup by trading a late first round pick. That’s how to do it.

C: Portland Trail Blazers: Drafted Damian Lillard in a pick acquired for Gerald Wallace and drafted Meyers Leonard with their pick. A few things bother me about this. The first is getting Lillard for Wallace is a downgrade in talent. That’s never good. The next is both picks are wild reaches. Granted there wasn’t much available here, but they could have done better. Finally, they needed a point guard and Lillard is more of a combo. I don’t see him making the quick transition from small college gunner to starting NBA point guard. Leonard is a huge project. He’s unlikely to see much court time right away and possibly ever. I do like that they got Will Barton in round 2.

C: Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes: My feelings on Barnes have been noted. I think he’ll be a bust. The Warriors started out with an F. Then they argued their case. In their favor is they snagged the 30^th pick from San Antonio for taking on Richard Jefferson’s contract. Good move. They got Festus Ezeli with that pick. In round two Draymond Green was not only a steal, but a will be a great fit here. They also grabbed Bosnia and Herzegovina center Ojngen Kuzmic which is another steal. They’ll regret the Barnes pick, but recovered enough that I can give them a C.

C: Oklahoma City Thunder: Perry Jones III: OKC is a good place for Jones. The culture is positive. He doesn’t need to contribute immediately. If he does learn to be a more aggressive player, the payoff could be big. I don’t expect much from Jones, but if he’s going to become anything near the player he was advertised as, this is a good place for that to happen.

C: Chicago Bulls: Marques Teague: What I said for Jones and OKC applies here also. I just find it strange that a team with the best PG in the game would draft another one. I know Rose will be out until the all-star break, but Teague isn’t ready to step in as the starting PG anywhere, even as a stopgap, let alone on a contender.

C: Miami Heat: Traded pick to Philadelphia in exchange for a future pick. Good move by the champs. There wasn’t much help at #27 and they didn’t need to waste the cap space paying whoever they drafted. They get what will likely become a better pick in the future when it will definitely be of more use to them. Thanks a lot for helping these guys out, Philly.

C: Brooklyn Nets: Traded pick for Gerald Wallace. A lot depends on whether Wallace comes back. Wallace is a solid NBA player who helps any team. He’s well worth the 6^th overall pick in this draft. Wallace has opted out of his contract, so the Nets may get nothing for the pick. The good news is a pick from 2-10 in the 2012 draft is likely going to cost a team more than it’s worth. The bad thing is the Nets continue to look incompetent in their efforts to become a contender.

C: Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond: Detroit seems like the wrong place for Drummond. They’re a rebuilding team and such teams need to hit on their draft picks. Drafting a player who is 3 years away just doesn’t seem like a good strategy. There will be more pressure on Drummond in a place like Detroit than he would have seen on a contender. He’s a long shot for success anywhere and his failure will only be magnified if it happens on a bad team.

D: Philadelphia 76ers: Drafted Moe Harkless with their own pick, then traded the #45 overall pick and a future 1^st rounder to the Heat for Arnett Moultrie. Harkless is a reach here. But that isn’t my main issue with the Sixers. I can’t understand dealing the future #1 for Arnett Moultrie. Forget that Moultrie was also a reach. Forget that helping out Mimai isn’t something any team should be doing. This is about value. They picked up the 27^th pick in a bad draft for what will likely be a higher pick in a stronger draft. They gave up value and that just isn’t a smart way for a team to operate.

D: Utah Jazz: Traded pick for Darius Songalia as best I can tell. Obviously that didn’t work out too well. The Jazz have some good young players and the Warriors’ #1 pick next year. They’ll recover from this.

D: Toronto Raptors: Terrence Ross: This is was a reach. But they can be thankful Barnes didn’t slip to them. This is where I’m going to list the picks I considered to be the wildest reaches.

D: Phoenix Suns: Kendall Marshall: Not a bad time to bring in a young PG, but Marshall is also a reach.

D: Atlanta Hawks: John Jenkins: Big reach. Jenkins is nothing more than a gunner. There were some good players on the board here. Gunners like Doron Lamb and Marcus Denmon were available in round 2. They were better values and might become better players.

D: Indiana Pacers: Miles Plumlee: I didn’t expect him to be drafted, let alone in round one. This is the craziest reach of the night. They drafted a guy who is basically a rebounding specialist.

F: Minnesota Timberwolves: The original pick went to the Clippers and eventually the Hornets in the Chris Paul trade in exchange for Marco Jaric. They owned Utah’s pick that they landed for Darius Songalia, I think. What they got was Chase Budinger for the Utah pick and a nice score in round two with Robbie Hummel. The Jaric trade is unforgivable and gets them the F. Considering Kahn’s drafting record, dealing the pick for an established player like Budinger was probably smart.

F: San Antonio Spurs: Traded pick to Golden State in order to dump the contract of Richard Jefferson. I’m not sure they deserve an F, but it’s fun to flunk the goody-two-shoes valedictorian and I’m going to do it when the opportunity presents itself. The disappointing thing is the Spurs would have killed it with a late first rounder in a draft like this. They grabbed a useful player, Marcus Denmon, in round 2 of course.

F: NY Knicks: Traded pick for Tracy McGrady: The good thing for the Knicks is they own all their draft picks for the next few years and have a solid roster so they may not feel the need to keep trading protected #1s.

NBA Draft 2012: Top 60 (Not a mock draft)

by Ed Weiland

This is not a mock draft. Mocks suggest some inside knowledge of how the draft will transpire. I have no such knowledge other than what I might read here and there. This is the order of how I would draft this group of players.

This is an incredibly difficult bunch to rank after the top pick. After Davis every player has major concerns and isn’t a guy I’d want in the top 2-10 of most drafts. What this draft does have going for it is what I’ll call journeyman depth. There will be players available well into round two who look like they can become decent journeymen. That means the teams with the best chance to make a big score, other than the Hornets, are the teams with multiple picks after #10.

The previous draft that this one best compares to is 1969. That one had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Lew Alcindor at the time) at the top and not much after that. Draft picks like Bobby Dandridge, JoJo White, Norm Van Lier and Bingo Smith eventually emerged as solid NBA players as I expect a few drafted after Davis to.

1. Anthony Davis PF-C, Kentucky: The sky is the limit for Davis. Everything about him says he’ll become a legendary player.
2. Dion Waiters G, Syracuse: Someone has to be #2. I went with Waiters because of upside. He has star ability and might even be able to play some point. In 5 years it might seem really silly to have Waiters at #2, but I suspect most other current mocks will look just as silly. Know that the gap between Davis and Waiters is greater than the gap between Waiters and Jesse Sanders at #60.
3. Andrew Nicholson PF, St. Bonaventure: I don’t envy teams drafting in spots 2-5. Nicholson seems like a reach here and he is. But other than Davis he was the best big guy in the nation for the final 3 months of the season. That’s why I have him ahead of Robinson.
4. Thomas Robinson PF, Kansas: He reminds me of Jordan Hill from a few years ago. Like Hill his numbers scream journeyman despite that high-revvin’  motor of his.
5. Brad Beal SG, Florida:  Beal would be the safe choice at #2. I feel he’ll become a pretty good SG, possibly a borderline all-star. I’m just leery about using too high a draft pick on any SG other than a Wade or Kobe clone.
6. Evan Fournier SG, France: What can I say here other than I love his stats. He’s young, tall and has great production.
7. John Henson PF, North Carolina: The appeal of Henson is that there aren’t many concerns about what he will and won’t be able to accomplish. He’ll be a solid rebounder and defender who struggles on offense.
8. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF, Kentucky: He’s a hard guy to figure. There isn’t anything here that says he’ll become an impact player. But his situation may have suppressed his numbers.
9. Terrence Jones F, Kentucky: My opinion of Jones has risen quite a bit throughout this process. When it started I considered him a somewhat overmatched PF. Now I see a multi-skilled forward who could be effective at either position off the bench.

10.  Andre Drummond C, Connecticut: A talented big guy can’t last too long, no matter how far away he is from contributing.

11.  Jeremy Lamb SG, Connecticut

12.  Tony Wroten G, Washington: Draft him, hope he works hard and becomes something similar to Chauncey Billups in a few years. Wroten does possess that type of ability. What must scare the people who actually have to make these decisions is the same thing could have been said about Javaris Crittenton a few years back.

13.  Will Barton SG, Memphis

14.  Jae Crowder SF, Marquette: I’ve been on his bandwagon all year and I’m not going to bail because of a silly measurement.

15.  Jared Sullinger PF, Ohio State: I’d have him in the top 5 if not for the red flag.

16. Royce White F, Iowa State

17. Terrence Ross SG, Washington: I don’t like the idea of two players from the same non-tournament team going in the top 20, but such is life with the 2012 draft class. Everything is a crapshoot after #1.

18. Fab Melo C, Syracuse: A raw center who blocks shots is never a terrible investment.

19. Draymond Green F, Michigan State

20. Damian Lillard G, Weber State

21. Kendall Marshall PG, North Carolina

22. Ognjen Kuzmic C, Bosnia and Herzegovina

23. John Shurna SF, Northwestern

24. Marquis Teague PG, Kentucky

25. Tony Mitchell SF, Alabama

26. Ken Horton SF, Central Connecticut State

27. Moe Harkless SF, St John’s: My gut tells me he should go higher, but I don’t listen to my gut much. He’s an athletic, but small and overmatched PF trying to play SF. That just isn’t a great prospect.

28.  Harrison Barnes SF, North Carolina: I’ve been debating plugging him in since about #15. That’s the “what if the others are right?” voices in my head talking. Barnes just doesn’t rate very well as a prospect and this is where I feel he belongs. What Barnes, Jones III, Rivers and some others have going in their favor is they’re going to be drafted high and will get every opportunity to succeed or fail. Most players won’t be that fortunate.

29. Quincy Miller SF, Baylor

30. Perry Jones III F, Baylor

31. Meyers Leonard C, Illinois

32. Scott Machado PG, Iona

33. Marcus Denmon SG, Missouri

34. Kyle O’Quinn C, Norfolk State

35. JaMychal Green PF, Alabama

36. Herb Pope PF, Seton Hall

37. Orlando Johnson SG, UCSB

38. Mitchell Watt PF, Buffalo

39. Robbie Hummel SF, Purdue

40. Arnett Moultrie PF, Mississippi State

41. Dusan Cantekin C, Serbia

42. Tyshawn Taylor G, Kansas

43. Kostas Papnikolaou SF, Greece

44. Festus Ezeli C, Vanderbilt

45. Doron Lamb SG, Kentucky

46. Jeff Taylor SF, Vanderbilt

47. Ricardo Ratliffe PF, Missouri

48. Scoop Jardine PG, Syracuse

49. Jared Cunningham SG, Oregon State

50. Drew Gordon PF, New Mexico

51. Tyler Zeller C, North Carolina

52. Austin Rivers SG, Duke

53. Bernard James C, Florida State

54. Kevin Jones F, West Virginia

55. Garrett Stutz C, Wichita State

56. John Jenkins SG, Vanderbilt

57. Cameron Moore PF, UAB

58. Miles Plumlee PF-C, Duke

59. Quincy Acy PF, Baylor

60. Jesse Sanders PG, Liberty

NBA Draft 2012: Centers

by Ed Weiland

The evaluation of the centers plays out something like the PFs. There are benchmarks that should be met before I consider them good prospects. There are exceptions and I’ll get into those as they apply. The main thing to know is the 2PP should be over .600, the R40 over 10.0 and the B40 over 3.0. Those are minimum numbers. The better prospects should do better in every category. Scoring frequently is nice, but not as important as it is with the other position. Possessing a 3-point shot and good passing skills never hurt, but neither skill is essential for success. Here are the numbers:

Player	2PP	P40	R40	B40	A/TO
Festus Ezeli	539	17.4	10.2	3.5	0.1
Eli Holman	607	18.1	11.7	2.2	0.7
Bernard James	606	15.3	11.5	3.3	0.2
Meyers Leonard	604	17.6	10.6	2.4	0.6
Fab Melo	566	12.3	9.2	4.6	0.5
Kyle O’Quinn	610	19.7	12.8	3.2	0.5
Henry Sims	463	17.0	8.8	2.0	1.2
Garrett Stutz	572	21.4	12.9	1.7	0.5
Tyler Zeller	553	21.6	12.7	2.0	0.5

Like the entire 2012 draft after the top pick, this group is deep with players who will make good 2^nd round picks, but offer little to like if drafted in the top 20. This group includes some typical center prospect stereotypes. Zeller’s the 4-year guy from a major program that every fan has heard about. Ezeli is the guy coming off a terrible senior year who might be a bargain. Leonard is the young guy with potential. Melo is the shot blocker. Kuzmic is the mysterious foreign player who may not show up until 2015. Etc. But they’re a bunch of players who will be 2^nd or 3^rd stringers in the NBA at best. Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond have already been analyzed in separate pieces. Davis is the top center available by a long shot. Drummond would be next based on his potential. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal.

Fab Melo, Syracuse: Melo is a good shot blocker. If there’s one skill I would choose for center prospects to do, blocking shots would be it. Such players have a much higher success rate than other one-skill prospects. For that reason I’m going to put him at the top of this group. Please don’t interpret this as a ringing endorsement of Melo’s NBA future either. He’s merely the most promising of a somewhat motley group of center prospects. Someone has to be at the top. I like shot blockers, so Fab is my guy.

There isn’t much else to like here though. He’s a substandard rebounder, his offense is practically non-existent and he’s a sophomore who’s as old as most seniors. He probably shouldn’t be drafted before #20. But if the question is “Which of these centers would I take first?” my answer would be Fab Melo. The reason is because he has the potential to become a pretty good NBA defender.

Ognjen Kuzmic, Bosnia and Herzegovina: Kuzmic averaged 14.1 R40 and 3.5 B40 playing in Spain. Those are numbers that make me take notice. His offense is weak, but in this group of centers his rebounding/defense places him near the top. I read a report that he signed a 4-year contract with a team in Spain. If this is true it means he won’t be of much immediate help. The flip side of this is he could be stashed overseas while salary cap and roster issues resolve themselves on a playoff contender.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois: Leonard seems likely to be one of the first of this group taken, so he deserves a closer look. Since I like to compare players with similar players from the past as a way of evaluating them, here’s a look at Leonard against past sophomore centers with a 2PP close to his .604. That’s his strongest stat, so that’s the one I used.

NCAA Sophomore	2PP	P40	R40	B40
Hakeem Olajuwon	611	20.3	16.7	7.5
Cole Aldrich	598	19.7	14.6	3.6
Tim Duncan	594	18.4	13.7	4.6
Bryant Reeves	622	24.0	12.3	1.6
Kevin Willis	596	16.7	11.9	1.6
Joel Przybilla	613	18.3	10.7	5.1
Michael Southall	610	18.3	10.7	3.6
Randolph Morris	608	21.8	9.8	1.9
Jason Lawson	595	17.9	9.3	3.6
Steve Hamer	595	21.6	9.0	1.6
Bill Wennington	605	11.1	8.9	1.9
Olden Polynice	603	15.2	8.9	1.3
Brad Daugherty	610	15.4	8.1	1.4
Dave Hoppen	599	22.6	7.8	0.5
Meyers Leonard	604	17.6	10.6	2.4

I listed the players in order of rebound rate, because there seems to be a dividing line between 10-11 R40 for players who were more successful. That line will become more defined next year after Cole Aldrich has his break out season. As for Leonard, he’s on the line. The three successful players below 10.5, Wennington, Polynice and Daugherty all posted their numbers in the pre-shot clock era, so I’m wary about holding up their careers as something Leonard might emulate. Leonard looks kind of ordinary next to this group. His numbers are similar to Przybilla only if you ignore blocks, which I can’t.

I have to consider Leonard a longshot to become more than a reserve. It looks like he has decent offensive potential, but the defense/rebounding skills are marginal and that has always been more important for centers. I could see using a late first rounder on him, because he’s younger than most and offers some upside. Personally I would wait for round 2.

Kyle O’Quinn, Norfolk State: O’Quinn is the only player here who passes every statistical benchmark, so I have to give him props for that. This is not an easy thing to do and it says O’Quinn is a prospect who deserves to be drafted. The fact that he’s posted such numbers for three years now and has flashed a decent 3-point shot adds to his value.

What brings him down a notch or two is that these numbers were posted at a small college. That isn’t as impressive had he done this on a bigger stage. That reservation aside, O’Quinn looks like a good get in round two. He has shown ability offensively, defensively and on the boards. He has enough potential that his ceiling is that of a decent rotation player.

Dusan Cantekin, Serbia: Cantekin hit 63% of his shots and posted an 11.8 R40 playing for Mega Vizura this past season. He’s also 7’4”. He didn’t look like much of a shot blocker and he’s 22, so the upside isn’t there. He doesn’t look like he’ll become a productive player on the level of Pekovic or Asik, but there’s enough here that he merits a second round look.

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt: Rough year for Ezeli. He was one of the top center prospects going in, but a suspension and injuries brought his numbers way down. This table shows how far he fell from last year:

Festus Ezeli	2PP	P40	R40	B40	A/TO
2010-11	588	22.1	10.7	4.4	0.1
Nov-Dec	471	18.0	11.3	2.0	0.0
January	468	14.1	11.8	4.4	0.3
February	619	21.8	6.4	3.9	0.1
March	526	15.1	13.2	2.2	0.2

Even though he was a better player in 2011, he was still just a marginal prospect because of his scary low A/TO. He’s even more marginal following a rough senior year. In his defense, Ezeli did improve after a late start, but never really got it together. He also still has that turnover problem that makes him seem too mistake-prone to have much of an impact at the next level. His defense should get him a look late in round 2.

Tyler Zeller, North Carolina: When a draft is thin at the top like 2012, marginal prospects are more likely to stand out in combines and individual workouts as teams desperately search for help. I think that’s probably the reason Zeller has moved close to the lottery in the latest mocks. Or perhaps teams are hoping that drafting Tyler somehow gives them an edge on landing his younger brother Cody next year. Whatever the reason, it certainly isn’t because he’s been a dominant college center. While he has shown some improvement, this is the first year he’s posted any number that made him look like even a decent prospect.

Tyler Zeller	2PP	P40	R40	B40
Freshman	472	15.3	9.7	0.9
Sophomore	521	20.6	10.1	1.9
Junior	547	21.2	9.8	1.6
Senior	553	21.6	12.7	2.0

I’m always somewhat suspicious of players who finally step up as seniors. It’s better than not stepping up at all, but the best prospects are there from the start more often than not. In the case of Zeller, he only stepped up his rebounding. His offense remains inefficient and his shot blocking is still poor. Tyler Zeller has the numbers of a late 2^nd-rounder at best. Drafting him in round one, let alone the lottery would be a major mistake.

Bernard James, Florida State: James is a nice story. He served in Iraq, during which time he grew from 6’5” to 6’10”. After the army he headed to junior college, then Florida State as their starting center for the past couple of seasons. He’s 27, which makes him older than 8-year NBA veterans Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. That means even if he does make it, his usefulness as a player has a very tight window.

His stats were better as a junior when he averaged only 21 minutes per game. Increasing his minutes by 33% hurt both his efficiency and production and that has to be considered a pretty big negative. The positive side of his ledger is that he’s probably more mature than most of this group, what with the life experiences he’s had. He’s good enough to be an end of the bench big guy, so a late round 2 pick is about his place.

Garrett Stutz, Wichita State: He flashed some talent for 3 years, but put things together nicely as a senior and got himself on the map as a prospect. Stutz has a nice outside shot, which is always a plus for a big. He’s also a decent enough rebounder and has shown some good passing skills during his career. One big negative is he had trouble staying on the court. His senior number of 24.6 minutes per game was by far the best of his career, despite the fact that he didn’t foul at a high rate and generally posted strong per minute numbers. It bothers me that he spent so much time on the bench. Just looking at per minute numbers, he’s a better prospect than Zeller. But the fact that he posted these numbers in low minutes brings him down a few notches. He has shown enough to merit a look.

Eli Holman, Detroit: Holman has some big negatives, like being only 6’8”, being a 5^th-year senior and exceeding 3.0 B40 only in his sophomore season. He does have 3 seasons over 60% on 2-pointers, is a solid rebounder and has a 7’4” wingspan. He doesn’t look like much other than another big body to have around as a 3^rd string big. Rates a look as a UFA, but that’s all.

Henry Sims, Georgetown: Sims’ numbers are terrible for a prospect. I include him for a couple of reasons. The first is he’s a very good passer. That’s a nice skill for a center to have. The next is Georgetown big men under Thompson III may be experiencing a similar phenomenon to guards playing for Ben Howland at UCLA where the system suppresses their numbers. Both Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe have outplayed their college stats. Sims could do the same. Because Sims is nowhere near the player Hibbert and Monroe were in college, I’d test this theory via the UFA route.

NBA Draft 2012: Prospect Update

by Ed Weiland

As this draft comes into better focus it is shaping up as a draft heavy on forwards and backup centers. Anthony Davis remains the top pick. He’s the only player who looks like he has a good shot at becoming an all-star. After Davis it is something of a mixed bag. Overall the quality is weak compared to drafts of the previous decade, but still an upgrade on 2011. What could hurt this draft is most of the best prospects are underclassmen and a lot of them seem destined to be headed back to college for 2013. Right now there are enough intriguing players and role players to make this draft interesting for at least the first round.

These rankings are for college players only, without regard to whether or not they’ll declare for the draft. It’s still early in the process so these rankings should be considered fluid and likely to change some by draft day. As flaky as this draft is shaping up, my guess is I’ll do a lot of flip-flopping on any player other than Anthony Davis before my final analyses. I’ll add the foreign players later, when I’ve had more of a chance to assess them..

 1.      Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky: Easy choice as the top guy right now. Anthony Davis will be the first pick in the 2012 draft unless he completely falls apart. Right now he projects as an all-star and possibly more. I can’t say that about any other player.  

 2.      Tony Mitchell, PF North Texas: A top 20 prep prospect in 2010, Mitchell was recruited to Missouri a year ago. That didn’t work out, so he headed for North Texas to start his freshman season a year late. So far he’s been dominant. Is it crazy to rush him into the #2 spot? I don’t think so. The negative is this is for only 13 games in the Sun Belt Conference. The Sun Belt isn’t exactly the ACC, but it’s a decent mid-major. In a draft that’s painfully thin at the top, Mitchell is a better pick than anyone other than Davis at this point. Of course if the final month exposes some weaknesses, we’ll reassess. Continue reading NBA Draft 2012: Prospect Update…

NBA Draft 2012: An Early Preview

by Ed Weiland

The class of 2012 is better than the class of 2011. Right now that’s about the best thing I can say about it. I’ll add that there are enough intriguing prospects out there that I expect an interesting enough class to develop by draft day. But I still see this as a slightly below-average class once all is said and done. As it stands now I see 1 player who stands out, Anthony Davis. After that there are 3 others in the next tier. Beyond those 4 I put the prospects in groups for now. The groups are listed in the order of the value typically assigned to such players.

Consider this a very rough draft of the ranking of the 2012 draft prospects. Because of this, I included more than the usual 60 prospects. As the season progresses and the real prospects separate themselves from the fast starters, I’ll refine the rankings to reflect as much. With that in mind, don’t take these too seriously. There remains a lot of basketball to be played and prospect analysis to be done.

Continue reading NBA Draft 2012: An Early Preview…

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