HOOPSANALYST

The Final Four and NBA Futures  Part I

 

by Harlan Schreiber (4/1/07)

 

As a fan, I very much appreciate the NCAA tournament and its helter skelter sort of style.  I am more of a pro fan, however, and even when I'm watching the college game it's at least partially with an eye to what kinds of pro prospects the game will yield.  You do wonder to what extent NCAA tournament success correlates to NBA-level talent. 

 

A few years ago, Sports Illustrated wrote an article assessing NCAA teams' tournament chances by adding up how many pro prospects they had on the team.  My sense is, however, that the college game is so distinctly different that a bunch of pro prospects aren't needed as much as you might need a bunch of guys who can hit the three and are big enough to swarm in a zone against bigger players.  My feelings aside, I thought I'd look through all of the Final Four teams since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams for the 1984-85 seasons and see how many pro games each team ended up logging.

 

Of course examining how many pro games a college team would eventually accrue does not necessarily mean anything about how good a college team was.  Just because Duke had a freshman Corey Maggette playing 20 minutes off the bench does not mean they enjoyed a ton of production out of him.  Still, it's an interesting lens to look at these past teams.  Before giving the list,  here are a couple of caveats:  If the team still has active teams on an NBA roster during the 2006-07 season, I put the team in bold to indicate that they could still add to their totals.  Also, I did not give "NBA credits" to NBA level players who were injured all season or would eventually transfer and graduate from another school (this only really applies to Roderick Rhodes).  Without further do, here is the year-by-year Final Four list with the number of pro games for each team:

 
Year Team Pro Games
1984-85 Villanova 1,137
1984-85 Georgetown 2,695
1984-85 St. John's 3,265
1984-85 Memphis 1,057
1985-86 Louisville 971
1985-86 Duke 1,849
1985-86 LSU 450
1985-86 Kansas 1,357
1986-87 Indiana 171
1986-87 Syracuse 2,243
1986-87 UNLV 1,070
1986-87 Providence 423
1987-88 Kansas 977
1987-88 Oklahoma 2,110
1987-88 Duke 1,173
1987-88 Arizona 2,800
1988-89 Michigan 2,930
1988-89 Seton Hall 506
1988-89 Illinois 2,200
1988-89 Duke 2,109
1989-90 UNLV 2,465
1989-90 Duke 1,461
1989-90 Georgia Tech 1,627
1989-90 Arkansas 1,497
1990-91 Duke 1,825
1990-91 Kansas 137
1990-91 UNLV 2,627
1990-91 North Carolina 3,026
1991-92 Duke 2,440
1991-92 Michigan 2,926
1991-92 Indiana 1,707
1991-92 Cincinnati 1,524
1992-93 North Carolina 1,292
1992-93 Michigan 2,926
1992-93 Kansas 1,234
1992-93 Kentucky 1,156
1993-94 Arkansas 921
1993-94 Duke 1,235
1993-94 Arizona 1,253
1993-94 Florida 587
1994-95 UCLA 640
1994-95 Arkansas 921
1994-95 Oklahoma St. 395
1994-95 North Carolina 2,475
1995-96 Kentucky 3,678
1995-96 Syracuse 381
1995-96 Umass 607
1995-96 Miss. St. 725
1996-97 Arizona 1,523
1996-97 Kentucky 2,476
1996-97 North Carolina 1,564
1996-97 Minnesota 1,037
1997-98 Kentucky 1,479
1997-98 Utah 1,381
1997-98 Stanford 1,261
1997-98 North Carolina 2,000
1998-99 Uconn 1,007
1998-99 Duke 1,836
1998-99 Ohio State 459
1998-99 Michigan State 671
1999-00 Michigan State 1,100
1999-00 Florida 1,215
1999-00 Wisconsin 6
1999-00 North Carolina 461
2000-01 Duke 1,462
2000-01 Arizona 1,272
2000-01 Maryland 1,196
2000-01 Michigan State 953
2001-02 Maryland 1,057
2001-02 Indiana 301
2001-02 Kansas 973
2001-02 Oklahoma 0
2002-03 Syracuse 434
2002-03 Kansas 593
2002-03 Texas 405
2002-03 Marquette 308
2003-04 Uconn 679
2003-04 Georgia Tech 184
2003-04 Duke 733
2003-04 Oklahoma St. 408
2004-05 North Carolina 505
2004-05 Illinois 349
2004-05 Michigan State 94
2004-05 Louisville 135
2005-06 Florida 0
2005-06 UCLA 62
2005-06 George Mason 0
2005-06 LSU 69

 

Admittedly, the list is a little hard to process on a strictly year-by-year basis, so here is that same list set in order of least pro games to most pro games:

  <
Year Team Pro Games
2001-02 Oklahoma 0
2005-06 Florida 0
2005-06 George Mason 0
1999-00 Wisconsin 6
2005-06 UCLA 62
2005-06 LSU 69
2004-05 Michigan State 94
2004-05 Louisville 135
1990-91 Kansas 137
1986-87 Indiana 171
2003-04 Georgia Tech 184
2001-02 Indiana 301
2002-03 Marquette 308
2004-05 Illinois 349
1995-96 Syracuse 381
1994-95 Oklahoma St. 395
2002-03 Texas 405
2003-04 Oklahoma St. 408
1986-87 Providence 423
2002-03 Syracuse 434
1985-86 LSU 450
1998-99 Ohio State 459
1999-00 North Carolina 461
2004-05 North Carolina 505
1988-89 Seton Hall 506
1993-94 Florida 587
2002-03 Kansas 593
1995-96 Umass 607
1994-95 UCLA 640
1998-99 Michigan State 671
2003-04 Uconn 679
1995-96 Miss. St. 725
2003-04 Duke 733
1993-94