Chris Finch, David Vanterpool and NBA Coach Hiring Trends

When Minnesota fired Ryan Saunders last week, they immediately hired Chris Finch, an assistant coach with the Raptors.  The move caused some controversy because the T-Wolves passed over Saunders’ associate head coach David Vanterpool, who is Black, for Finch, who is white.  Several players expressed disappointment that Vanterpool wasn’t even considered for the job.  Marc J. Spears wrote an article for The Undefeated where he explored the frustration of many Black assistant coaches, with one coach telling Spears that: “[t]hey use your skill set during the difficult times, but when it’s time to reward you with an opportunity, they always seem to find a reason to not, and then expect you to continue to be the good soldier.”

In this particular case, the move was not that surprising.  The T-Wolves were 7-24 and the worst team in the league.  In these situations, the top assistant does sometimes get the interim job with an outside shot of getting the permanent job long-term if the interim can turn things around.  On the other hand, when a staff has prolonged losing seasons, management can look externally for a total reset.  In fact, this is precisely how Saunders got the full-time job in Minnesota.  It is a little odd (or perhaps awkward), that Finch will be using the same coaching staff that Saunders used, including Vanterpool, for now.

All these details aside, the frustration of Black coaches is also understandable.  As Spears wrote: “[t]here are currently seven Black NBA head coaches among 30 teams in a league where about 75% of the players are African American.”  (Diversity is even less prevalent in GM chair).  For these potential coaches, they see the macro picture and are quite frustrated that Vanterpool didn’t even get an interview.  Obviously, cause-and-effect in this area are hotly debated, with some scholars concluding that hiring discrimination against African Americans, generally, remaining at the same levels for the past 25 years.

I don’t intend to make any conclusions about why NBA coach hiring decisions happen but, instead, I thought we could look generally at each team’s hiring decisions over the last decade to see what patterns emerge.  Before looking at each team, we have to establish broad categories from which we can label most coaching hires.  There are only a finite number of hiring types and we see the candidate categories thusly:

Internal Assistant: Sometimes the local assistant makes good on the head coaching job by impressing on an interim basis (Jeff Van Gundy did this in New York years ago) or by getting a promotion when someone retires or is canned (Erik Spoelstra and Nick Nurse).

External Assistant:  like Chris Finch, a long-time assistant can get the job the hard way by placing with another team after years of putting in time.

Retreads: Those head coaches that are okay but never really great but range from bad to solid but can get a new job by virtue of their past resume.  Think Kevin Loughery in the old days.  More recently, coaches like Scotty Brooks or Alvin Gentry fit the category.  Tom Thibodeau was a star after he left Chicago but is now a solid retread.

College Guys: The star college coaches who want to take a shot in the pros like Brad Stevens or, at one point, Billy Donovan.

Star Coaches:  There aren’t too many of these but the top coaches are the no-brainers to hire.  Easy examples are Pat Riley, Phil Jackson and Chuck Daly.  Today, Steve Kerr, Rick Carlise, Erik Spoelstra, and Doc Rivers fit this bill (though they aren’t quite the level of the former coaches yet).

Star Newbies:  Star players (and announcers who were just good players) sometimes can skip the grueling assistant jobs and get head coaching jobs right away.  Doc Rivers, Mark Jackson, Jason Kidd, Steve Kerr, and Steve Nash all did this.  For our purposes, even Derek Fisher is considered a star newbie because he was able to jump to head coaching by virtue of his position as a decent (and well-known) player.

The above definitions shift for each coach over time.  For example, Donovan was once the college guy and is now a decent retread, while Spoelstra is a star now and Kidd would be a retread if he gets another head coaching job.  Some groupings are a bit subjective too.  A coach with prior head coaching experience could be a retread or an internal assistant at the same time.  We will make the best calls we can on those hybrid situations to pick the category that fits best. 

Also, there are a few Hispanic/Asian coaches (three to be precise) and we will count them in the non-white categories for our purposes.  We will categorize each coach by hiring group and race to see what trends, if any emerge.  We will not count any interim coach who only coached but a few games.

Having said all that, the NBA has had 124 regular or significant interim coaches since the start of the 2010-11 season.  Here’s a breakdown of the data:

-In total, 71 hires were white and 53 were Black.

-4 coaches came directly from the college ranks, all of whom were white (this may be a whole other conversation).

-23 hires were assistants who came from another organization, 14 white and 9 were Black.

-2 anomalies: Greg Popovich was GM and made himself coach in San Antonio and David Blatt came directly from Europe. 

-5 coaches came directly from playing, broadcasting, or front offices.  3 were Black, 2 were white.

-7 coaches were “star” hires.  5 were white and 2 were Black (both Doc Rivers).

-45 coaches were “retreads” of varying degrees of proficiency.  29 of the retreads were white and 16 were Black.

-The internal assistant promotions were particularly interesting to me because that is the scenario that is the origin of the current Finch/Vanterpool controversy.  Internal assistant promotions were definitely a different data point and one category where there were more Black candidates than white.  Of the 39, 23 were Black and 16 were white.

-In addition, 29 of these internal promotions were on an interim basis and 14 of the 29 got the full-time job.  Of that group, 17 interims were Black and 12 were white.  Digging further: 8 of the 17 Black coaches got the full-time gig.  6 of the 12 white coaches also got the full-time job. 

-One more anomaly, Paul Silas is the only coach to get an interim gig while not being an assistant coach beforehand (in Charlotte).  He also got the full-time job briefly.

-Age! On top of race, front offices seem to want to find young bodies and lock them in if they are any good.  Sometimes, you get Spoelstra.  Other times, Ryan Saunders.  In either case, the market gets tighter as the coaches age too.  Is this fair?  Probably not.  This is also a discussion for another day.

Before making too many conclusions, though, remember that we are only looking at the finished data and not accounting for individual hiring situations and who may have been considered in those cases.  Still, this broad data does tell us the life of an assistant is rough.

Assistant coaches, particularly Black assistants, have their best path to a full-time gig through this interim label.  The data shows that interims usually have about a 50% chance getting the job.  The numbers are actually probably a little higher because we did not filter out a few scenarios where it was clear the interim coach was clearly not going to be retained under any circumstance.    

Assistant coaches are also a different group than stars.  An African American star player can skip the line while someone like Vanterpool can grind it out in the video room for years.  It’s not totally fair but it has worked at times.  Doc Rivers is a great coach but he made the jump straight from broadcasting. (I didn’t specifically study this end but it also felt like ex-player assistants got more opportunities from the assistant ranks than those that played no or little NBA ball).

Putting it all together, the picture is bleak for assistants who dream of becoming head coaches.  There are tons of factors working against them and African American assistants appear to have a particularly hard path to a full-time job.  Given the data, you can understand why so many were disappointed that Vanterpool missed his best route to a job. 

Full coach hiring data is below:

Atlanta

-Larry Drew, internal assistant (AA)

-Mike Budenholzer, external assistant (W)

-Lloyd Pierce, external assistant (AA)

Boston

-Doc Rivers, retread (AA)

-Brad Stevens, college guy (W)

Brooklyn

-Avery Johnson, retread (AA)

-P.J. Carlesimo, internal assistant (W)(interim, didn’t get full-time job)

-Jason Kidd, star newbie (AA)

-Lionel Hollins, retread (AA)

-Kenny Atkinson, external assistant (W)

-Jacque Vaughn, internal assistant (AA)(interim, didn’t get full-time job)

-Steve Nash, star newbie (W)

Charlotte

-Larry Brown, retread (W)

-Paul Silas, retread (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Mike Dunlap, college guy (W)

-Steve Clifford, external assistant (W)

-James Borrego, external assistant (H)

Cleveland

-Mike Brown, external assistant (AA)

-Byron Scott, retread (AA)

-David Blatt, European coach (W)

-Ty Lue, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Larry Drew, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-John Beilein, college guy (W)

-J.B. Bickerstaff, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

Dallas

-Rick Carlisle, retread (W)

Denver

-George Karl, star coach (W)

-Brian Shaw, external assistant (AA)

-Melvin Hunt, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Michael Malone, retread (W)

Detroit

-John Kuester, external assistant (W)

-Lawrence Frank, retread (W)

-Maurice Cheeks, retread (AA)

-John Loyer, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Stan Van Gundy, retread (W)

-Dwane Casey, retread (AA)

Golden State

-Keith Smart, internal assistant (AA)

-Mark Jackson, star newbie (AA)

-Steve Kerr, star newbie (W)

Houston

-Rick Adelman, retread (W)

-Kevin McHale, retread (W)

-J.B. Bickerstaff, internal assistant (AA) (interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Mike D’Antoni, retread (W)

-Stephen Silas, external assistant (AA)

Indiana

-Jim O’Brien, retread (W)

-Frank Vogel, internal assistant (W) (interim hire, got full-time job)

-Nate McMillan, internal assistant (AA)

-Nate Bjorkgren, external assistant (W)

Los Angeles Clippers

-Vinny Del Negro, retread (W)

-Doc Rivers, star coach (AA)

-Ty Lue, retread (AA)

Los Angeles Lakers

-Phil Jackson, star coach (W)

-Mike Brown, retread, (AA)

-Mike D’Antoni, retread (W)

-Byron Scott, retread (AA)

-Luke Walton, external assistant (W)

-Frank Vogel, retread (W)

Memphis

-Lionel Hollins, internal assistant (AA)

-Dave Joerger, internal assistant (W)

-Dave Fizdale, external assistant (AA)

-J.B. Bickerstaff, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Taylor Jenkins, external assistant (W)

Miami

-Erik Spoelstra, internal assistant (A)

Milwaukee

-Scott Skiles, retread (W)

-Jim Boylan, internal assistant (W) (interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Larry Drew, retread (AA)

-Jason Kidd, retread (AA)

-Joe Prunty, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Mike Budenholzer, retread (W)

Minnesota

-Kurt Rambis, external assistant (W)

-Rick Adelman, retread (W)

-Flip Saunders, retread (W)

-Sam Mitchell, internal assistant (AA)

-Tom Thibodeau, star coach (W)

-Ryan Saunders, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Chris Finch, external assistant (W)

New Orleans

-Monty Williams, external assistant (AA)

-Alvin Gentry, retread (AA)

-Stan Van Gundy, retread (W)

New York

-Mike D’Antoni, star coach (W)

-Mike Woodson, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Derek Fisher, star newbie (AA)

-Kurt Rambis, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Jeff Hornacek, retread (W)

-Dave Fizdale, retread (AA)

-Mike Miller, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Tom Thibodeau, retread (W)

Oklahoma City

-Scott Brooks, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Billy Donovan, college coach (W)

-Mark Daigneault, (W) internal assistant

Orlando Magic

-Stan Van Gundy, retread (W)

-Jacque Vaughn, external assistant (AA)

-James Borrego, internal assistant (H)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Scott Skiles, retread (W)

-Frank Vogel, retread (W)

-Steve Clifford, retread (W)

Philadelphia

-Doug Collins, retread (W)

-Brent Brown, external assistant (W)

-Doc Rivers, star coach (AA)

Phoenix

-Alvin Gentry, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Lindsey Hunter, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Jeff Hornacek, external assistant (W)

-Earl Watson, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Jay Triano, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Igor Kokoskov, external assistant (W)

-Monty Williams, retread (AA)

Portland

-Nate McMillan, retread (AA)

-Kaleb Canales, internal assistant (H)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-Terry Stotts, retread (W)

Sacramento

-Paul Westphal, retread (W)

-Keith Smart, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Mike Malone, external assistant (W)

-Tyrone Corbin, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, didn’t get full-time job)

-George Karl, star coach (W)

-Dave Joerger, retread (W)

-Luke Walton, retread (W)

San Antonio

-Greg Poppovich, internal executive (W)

Toronto

-Jay Triano, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Dwane Casey, external assistant (AA)

-Nick Nurse, internal assistant (W)

Utah

-Jerry Sloan, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Tyrone Corbin, internal assistant (AA)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Quinn Snyder, external assistant (W)

Washington

-Flip Saunders, star coach, (W)

-Randy Wittman, internal assistant (W)(interim hire, got full-time job)

-Scott Brooks, retread (W)

NBA 2020-21 Awards So Far

As we approach the halfway point of the season, I thought this would be good time to do awards picks for the season that has been so far.  Granted a lot could change but let’s jump in and take a look:

MVP:  Before the season, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the safe bets.  They were the best players for the three likely best teams.  They have all been very good so far but Nikola Jokic has been even better.  Jokic leads the NBA in most advanced stats and his lead is quite large:

PER: Joel Embiid 32.2, Jokic, 31.5

WS: Jokic 6.6, Embiid 4.8

WS/48:  Jokic .306, Embiid .294

BPM: Jokic 11.6, Embiid 9.0

VORP: Jokic 3.6, Luka Doncic 2.4

So, the advanced stats story tells us Jokic has been the best player in the NBA, with Embiid a close second.  The chances of Jokic winning the MVP on a 16-13 Denver team are not high but, like Kevin Garnett in 2004-05, there are strong indicators that he’s the best right now.  My choice would be Jokic.

If we are predicting who would win the MVP from the voters, the best bet is Embiid.  He has a pretty strong case too.  His numbers are in Jokic’s neighborhood and Philly has played well (though SRS says they are overrated).  Either way, Embiid’s stats and Philly’s record, when taken together, makes him a good fit for stats folk and more conventional voters.  LBJ, Giannis, and Kawhi (and Doncic) are defensible picks too but a notch below those two and their teams seem to be coasting a bit more.

What about the best team in the NBA?   As good as Utah has been, none of its individual parts merit serious MVP consideration.  Rudy Gobert has probably been there best player (with Mike Conley a close second) but neither can seriously be considered better than Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, LBJ, or Kawhi.  Instead, Utah’s strength has been its depth.

Sixth Man of the Year:  This is where Utah has been really good.  Jordan Clarkson has gotten kudos for his scoring (18.2 pg on .587 TS% in 26.2 mpg) and seems to be everyone’s favorite for this award.  He definitely fits the profile of that automatic scorer off-the-bench winning this award.  Indeed, there are several multiple Sixth Man winners in the past doing very similar things like Ricky Pierce, Lou Williams, or Jamal Crawford.  Clarkson’s advanced stats are also pretty good (3.0 BPM, 1.0 VORP).  A few bench players, however, rate out a little better:

-Joe Ingles, 3.8 BPM, 1.0 VORP

-Chris Boucher, 3.6 BPM, 1.0 VORP

-Jarrett Allen, 3.0 BPM, 1.0 VORP

Allen is likely to start the rest of the season going forward so we can count him out.  Boucher has also been really good as a multi-talented bench big (he even hits a few threes!).  As for Ingles, he’s hard to separate from Clarkson because they spend so much time on the floor together with similar offensive ratings.  They differ a bit in that Clarkson gets marked down a little for his soso defense while Ingles is considered a plus on that side of the floor.  Of the three candidates, I would probably go with Boucher, who has been a dynamic force off the bench but I could see an argument for Clarkson or Ingles.

2019-20 winner Montrezl Harrell has been as good as always but is clearly inferior to Boucher in the same role.  It should also be noted that Lou Williams has been below his usual standard this year and isn’t really in the conversation yet.

Rookie of the Year:  After a terrible debut game, LaMelo Ball has lapped the field.  He was viewed as a high risk player but, so far, he’s been great.  Kevin Pelton and John Hollinger, among others, have written about how unprecedented Ball’s stats have been as a 19-year old.  Ball has a 2.8 BPM and is only one of two rookies playing more than 20 minutes per game with a positive BPM.  Here are top five rookies in BPM with a minimum of 20 minutes played per game:

1. Ball, 2.8

2. Tyrese Haliburton, 2.1

3. Saddiq Bey, -0.3

4. Xavier Tillman, -0.4

5. Jae-Sean Tate, -1.0

Haliburton is not flashy but he still has an outside shot of catching Ball.  It would take a little luck but it is not unprecedented. In 1991-92, it looked like Dikembe Mutombo was a lock to win the award around the time of the All-Star break.  Deke made the All-Star team and his odds of winning the award must have been high.  Thereafter, Mutombo’s numbers slowed down markedly and then he missed the last month of the season after thumb surgery.  At the same time, Larry Johnson got really hot and won the award.  Here are their stats through February 6, 1992:

Mutombo, 11/1/91-2/6/92: 46 gms, 19.1 ppg, .504 FG%, 13.3 rpg

Johnson, 11/1/91-2/6/92: 47 gms, 17.8 ppg, .489 FG%, 11.6 rpg

Close but Mutombo had him beat in all the counting stats.  Now let’s see their stats for the home stretch:

Mutombo, 2/7/92-4/19/92: 25 gms, 12.0 ppg, .461 FG%, 10.3 rpg

Johnson, 2/7/92-4/19/92: 35 gms, 21.1 ppg, .490 FG%, 10.1 rpg

In the end, LJ won the award going away, with 90.5 votes out of 96 possible ballots.  So, beware LaMelo, you could get caught from behind, though it’s highly unlikely.

Defensive Player of the Year:  Giannis and Gobert have won the last three awards and Gobert looks like a good bet to get it again this year.  Utah has the second best defense and Gobert is obviously the key cog in their defense.  The advanced stats give more credit to some of his teammates and, in fact, Gobert is not quite in the top ten in DBPM (1.9).  The Lakers have the best defense in the NBA and Marc Gasol (who is tied with Ben Simmons) leads the NBA in this category at 2.5.  Gasol is always an effective defender but he has only played 20 minutes per game and he has two great defenders to help him (LBJ and Anthony Davis).

Simmons has a reasonable argument as well but Gobert seems like such a dominant defender on the eye test and the advanced stats that I would agree that he has earned the award so far.

Coach of the Year: The best surprise team award.  Quinn Snyder has this on lockdown this year unless the Lakers or Clippers catch Utah.  The backup pick is Doc Rivers so far.  If the Sixers give up the top seed to Brooklyn, Steve Nash may get the award.

Executive of the Year: Utah is having the best season but they didn’t do much differently with roster other than re-sign Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert for $400 million.  Brooklyn is the team that made the big move in getting James Harden but is trading everything that wasn’t nailed down for a superstar really the type of innovative decision that merits this award?  Probably not but it will likely get Sean Marks the award anyway.

In short, there is really no satisfying answer to this award and I frankly find this award kind of silly anyway.  If forced to choose, I like James Jones in Phoenix as my pick for scooping up Chris Paul and Jae Crowder fairly cheaply.

Most Improved Player: I leave my least favorite award for last because the criteria for picking are usually very mushy.  In this case, however, the award is quite clear under any standard of review.  Jerami Grant has looked like a totally different player this year (23.5 ppg).  He has improved after many years of an established level of ability as a role player.  That is the perfect surprise choice.  Sure, Detroit has no scorers but Grant has exceeded even the wildest expectations this year.  His winning has nice symmetry as well since his father Harvey Grant almost won the award in 1990-91 (he came in second to Scott Skiles).

Quick Thoughts

1. All-Star Game A Mistake?:  It looks like we will have an  NBA All-Star game this year even though the pandemic has made things more complicated.  Even in the best of the times, the All-Star game was of dubious utility to more hardcore fans.  We have written repeatedly about our ambivalence towards the All-Star game, as the defensive effort, has noticeably waned over the years to the point where the NBA finally tweaked the rules last year to get a competitive fourth quarter out of the players. 

So, is it worth playing an exhibition event where there will be few fans and COVID exposure risk remains quite real?  There is a decent argument against playing a game that I find uninteresting in the best of times.  Mark Bradley noted in the Atlanta Journal Constitution that many players, including LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard, have no interest in playing this year.  Kawhi understood (but clearly did not support) the countervailing consideration: “We all know why we’re playing it.  It’s money on the line; it’s an opportunity to make more money. Just putting money over health right now, pretty much…”  LBJ mentioned being mentally disengaged from the concept.  Bradley, after noting the groundswell against playing a meaningless game, wrote that “[t]he NBA shouldn’t ask its brightest stars to add another layer of travel and risk to their already frightful schedule.”  

In short, the NBA has to balance health risk against potential to earn revenues.  It sounds a little callous to force players to take risk for cold hard cash but this is a quandary we all face (though most of us face the risk on a much smaller scale in terms of money potentially earned, if not in risk exposure).  Jabari Young wrote an article for CNBC where he explained that the All-Star game is actually a key revenue generator for the networks and sponsors.  Specifically, Young interviewed an ad metrics company, Kevin Krim who: “estimated last year’s All-Star Game generated around $15 million for TNT, which packed more than 160 advertisement spots in its broadcast. ‘For a single game, that’s a lot of ads for a good price, and it’s effective,’ said Krim, adding that the total reaches $24 million if a related broadcast, like the Slam Dunk competition, is included.”

In other words, this game is a big deal for the companies that drive the NBA’s profitability.  While the individual player and writer observations regarding the silliness of playing the game are clearly true, the game has to happen because All-Star weekend is too profitable to cast aside.  Chris Paul, who is the NBPA President, understands this and is striking a deal with the NBA as we speak to play the All-Star game.  Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the big NBA concession is allowing payers opt out of the game (attendance at the game is mandatory most of the time—just ask Charles Barkley, who tried to beg off the 1991 game before David Stern forced him to play). 

What to make of this public argument?  The NBA and the players are taking risks for more money.  It sounds bad when you say it that way but it’s not really that crazy.  The parties seem to agree that playing regular season games comes with an acceptable amount of risk and that the NBA, for the most part, has done a good job of mitigating risk (with a few notable exceptions).   If the NBA plays one extra game that generates $25-35 million for the league (and the players) and the usual protocols are adhered to (they will probably have everyone quarantine before the game), there is not much argument for not playing the All-Star from a business perspective.  As a fan, I totally understand the instinct to consider the ridiculousness of the risk-reward calculus but the debate was always theoretical.

2.  Bad All-Stars:  It’s an annual column idea to go through past questionable All-Star selections.  We all remember the surprising ones (remember Tyrone Hill, B.J. Armstrong, and Dana Barros?).  I thought we could assess the “bad All-Stars” by the advanced numbers, namely PER, BPM, WS/48, and VORP so we could see who comes up lowest.  We are starting the search in 1973-74, when the NBA first kept track of turnovers, blocks, and steals.  We are using player stats as of the end of the All-Star season (as opposed to stats at the time of All-Star game).  Anyway, here are the bottom ten lists for each stat:

PER

1. Dirk Nowitzki, 2018-19: 9.6

2. Mark Eaton, 1988-89: 10.6

3. Kobe Bryant, 2013-14: 10.7 (only six games played)

4. James Donaldson, 1987-88: 12.4

5. Kevin Duckworth, 1990-91: 12.7

6.  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1988-89: 12.9

7. Norm Van Lier, 1975-76: 13.0

8. Allen Iverson, 2009-10: 13.4

9. Pete Maravich, 1978-79: 13.4

10. Norm Van Lier, 1976-77: 13.4

PER is a useful stat for overall offensive contribution but it measures very little defensive impact.  Therefore, it has fewer dimensions than some of the other advanced stats.  Still, most players with a PER below 15 are usually below average.  Seeing older Kobe, Dirk, Iverson, and Kareem is not surprising, as they were legitimately below average at those points in their careers.  Similarly, centers brought in as backups usually aren’t always great but fill the need in case the star centers are out (Duckworth, Eaton, Donaldson).  Eaton and Donaldson are undersold by PER because their impact was mostly defensive.  Van Lier and Maravich weren’t that old but both their careers were actually close to over (each would retire within two years).  At his best, Van Lier never had a great PER (16.2 career best).  Maravich did nicely in PER at his peak (20.5) but he tumbled down very quickly with injuries.  He was 31 in 1978-79 and he limped through 43 games in 1979-80 before retiring in training camp in 1980.

Win Shares/48

1. Kobe Bryant, 2013-14:  -.097 (only six games played)

2. Kobe Bryant, 2015-16: -.010

3. Pete Maravich, 1978-79: .004

4. Kobe Bryant, 2014-15: .006

5. Dirk Nowitzki, 2018-19: .016

6. Joe Dumars, 1994-95: .032

7. Latrell Sprewell, 1994-95: .0345

8. Allen Iverson, 2009-10: .037

9. Antoine Walker, 2002-03: .039

10. Chris Kaman, 2009-10: .039

WS/48 gives us a few new names in Kaman (another backup center for the All-Star squad) and younger players in Dumars, Sprewell, and Toine who just didn’t rate great.  Dumars is particularly interesting because he was consistently a pretty good in WS.  In the next four season before he retired, Dumars put up a .134 WS/48.  In 94-95, he rated badly defensively and he took a ton of threes (for 1994-95 player) and shot an execrable 103-338 (.305% when his career number is .382% and he shot much better the next four seasons).  It was just a weird year and, perhaps, no one noticed he wasn’t actually playing well.

That same year, a 24-year old Sprewell put a bunch of points on bad efficiency for a bad Golden State squad.  He was not an asset for a terrible Warrior team that was going through an implosion (Sprewell was also behaving badly internally, so it was a surprise that he made the team on that basis alone).  He shot poorly and it ended up being his worst season until the final year of his career in 2004-05. 

Toine was only 26 but he also shot terribly (a then-career low .467 TS%).  He would never be an All-Star again and his career was over by 2008. 

BPM

1. Kobe Bryant, 2013-14: -5.1 (only six games played)

2. Dirk Nowitzki, 2018-19: -3.9

3. Pete Maravich, 1978-79: -3.7

4. Kevin Duckworth, 1988-89: -3.5

5. Kevin Duckworth, 1990-91: -3.3

6. Steve Johnson, 1987-88: -3.1

7. Allen Iverson, 2009-10: -3.0

8. Chris Kaman, 2009-10: -2.5

9. Joe Dumars, 1994-95: -2.4

10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1988-89: -2.1

We will set aside the older vets who everyone wanted to see because they were stars at some point.  The real story is that sometimes not choosing a backup center might be better idea than Duckworth or Kaman (ditto Steve Johnson).  A talented power forward would likely have more value than a meh center for a single game.  Maravich emerges again to show how far he had fallen by 1978-79.  that Dumars’ year looks even worse in BPM than it did in WS/48.

VORP

1. Kevin Duckworth, 1988-89: -1.0

2. Kevin Duckworth, 1990-91: -.0.8

3. Pete Maravich, 1978-79: -0.8

4. Dirk Nowitzki, 2018-19: -0.4

5. Joe Dumars, 1994-95: -0.3

6. Steve Johnson, 1987-88: -0.3

7.  Chris Kaman, 2009-10: -0.3

8.  Allen Iverson, 2009-10: -0.2

9. Kobe Bryant, 2013-14: -0.1 (only six games played)

10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1988-89: 0.0

Again, we won’t pick on Kareem, Dirk, and Kobe for their victory lap All-Star appearances as emeritus pros.  That leaves Duckworth and Maravich as the worst two All-Stars over all advanced metrics.  Duck had some nice point scoring but the notion that he was an All-Star was a function of the fact that he had decent raw stats and Portland was pretty good.  Maravich (and  Iverson) were totally falling apart as players in real time and the advanced stats saw it coming.  Finally, Dumars’ one awful All-Star season is one the weird blips on the radar.  He never played so poorly again.

The Shove Heard Around the World: Fortson v. Colangelo

Last week, we looked at Butch Carter’s weird defamation lawsuit against Marcus Camby.  Well, it ain’t the only weird NBA defamation lawsuit! Today, we’ll look at the litigious aftermath of a hard foul a few years later.  On November 26, 2003, the Mavericks lost to the Suns in a blowout, 121-90.  With about three minutes left in an already decided game, Phoenix’s Zarko Cabarkapa drove to the rim for a dunk when Dallas forward and rebounding monster Danny Fortson shoved Cabarkapa who landed on his right side.  Cabarkapa would fracture his wrist on the play but the true fireworks came later.  Let’s break it down with a little background first….

A Bit of Background on Fortson

Fortson was an archetypical tough guy/rebounding specialist power forward.  He was only 6’7 but weighed 260 pounds.  His offensive game was minimal and his man-to-man defense wasn’t actually great but he was super strong and twice led the NBA in TRB%.  In his 2002 Basketball Prospectus, John Hollinger wrote about Fortson: “the classic one-trick pony.  Despite being undersized and not terribly athletic, Fortson is the most ferocious rebounder the league has seen since Denis Rodman.  He has an uncanny knack for positioning and tracking missed shots, he’s extremely strong, and he goes after every ball….[Still, Fortson and Antawn Jamison] had to be the worst defensive forward combination in the league….”  An unskilled and slow rebounding specialist wouldn’t really play in the 2021 NBA but, even in 2003, he was a more of a luxury item than a necessity.   

Fortson was known as a rough player before the Cabarkapa incident.  A March 2002 Sports Illustrated profile about Fortson was titled “Relentlessness Personified” and discussed his style of play: “[t]hough Fortson is only 25, the referees respect him enough to let him get away with tricks usually pulled by veterans. ‘Damn near every rebound he gets,’ says Lakers forward Robert Horry, ’he has two hands on your back and he’s pushing you.’  Fortson says his tactics are nothing compared with those of Bad Boys Rodman, Rick Mahorn and Bill Laimbeer, whose work he has long admired. ‘Those guys played dirty,’ Fortson says with an appreciative grin. ‘They were stepping on toes, pulling your shorts down. There’s no way you’re getting away with that stuff now.’”

In December 2004, Fortson was considered a key part of a surprisingly good Sonics team that relied on shooting guards (Ray Allen and Flip Muuray) and a bunch of hustlers (including Forston).  Sports Illustrated, again, detailed Fortson’s style of play: “Fortson rumbles around the half-court offense like a bumper car, slamming into opponents as he sets (occasionally legal) screens to spring shooters. He then plows toward the basket, where he has an uncanny knack for timing offensive rebounds, which he either tips in or otherwise takes to the hoop in the least graceful manner possible–think construction worker attempting a jeté–usually drawing a foul.”

Sports Illustrated prose aside, there were definitely plenty of players who did not like Forston’s grit.  One example came from April 2002, when Fortson elbowed Denver forward George McCloud in the eye.  McCloud told The San Francisco Gate that the hit was a “cowardly type shot.”  The paper wrote that McCloud said that the league should review the play and diplomatically pointed out that “[i]f they don’t [look at the play], then they shouldn’t take a look at it when I punch him in the face next season. The league can fine me or whatever. I’m going to get Danny Fortson back.”  According to the article, Fortson had already been suspended four games due to prior flagrant fouls, including on Shaq which ain’t easy to do.

Background on Zarko

Cabarkapa was a 6’11 rookie from Serbia (17th pick overall) and the Suns were hopeful he could be a solid scoring forward.  At the time of the Fortson incident, Zarko hadn’t played much (6.5 ppg in 13.1 mpg) but that game against Dallas was his best pro game to date (17 pts, 9 rebs in 29 minutes).  He missed about two months with the wrist injury but was the same bench player when he returned. 

The Shove

We set the scene above but, to review, the average Suns team (7-7) blew out a pretty good Dallas team (10-5, with peak Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, and Michael Finley).  Fortson had started but played only 13 minutes.  Zarko was going in for a dunk late in the blow out when Fortson pushed him in the chest, causing Cabarkapa to fall on, and fracture, his right wrist.  Forston was ejected for his take down on Zarko and suspended for three games (Dallas went 2-1 in those games) and he barely played the next two games upon his return.  I couldn’t find footage of the foul online but I recall it being pretty reckless.

The Odessa American report of the game quoted Suns owner Jerry Colangelo angrily criticizing Fortson: “He’s a thug, and I want him out—at least as long as our guy is going to be out.  He’s always been a thug.  I’ll do everything in my power to see that he pays for it.”  Mavs owner Mark Cuban responded that “[i]t’s fine for Jerry to vent and be upset.  What Danny did wasn’t smart, but he wasn’t intentionally trying to hurt Zarko.  He rightfully got a flagrant and was ejected.”

Fortson admitted he screwed up: “[i]t was a bad play.  I wasn’t frustrated with the blowout.  I was more concerned about getting in trouble with my defensive position.  By the time I put my hands on him, he was flying through the air and I knew it could be ugly.  There was no evil intent.  But consider it’s me, I expect the worst.  I’ve had a lot of flagrant fouls in my career.  But I do apologize.  I wouldn’t want to be hit like that.”

ESPN reported that: “Cabarkapa was in tears in the Suns’ dressing room, but later composed himself and said through a translator, ‘I can’t comprehend it. I don’t know exactly what happened. I just know I was trying to drive to the basket and Fortson pushed me.’”  Perhaps even angrier because of Zarko’s injury and anguish, Colangelo vowed to try to get Fortson suspended longer than the usual amount for a flagrant foul. 

Ultimately, the NBA fined Fortson $1,000 and suspended him three games without pay (which cost him $198,606).  The punishment was considered light and several papers criticized the NBA.  Peter Vecsey wrote a column for the New York Post ripping the NBA particularly hard with the following specific statements:

“As long as thugged out players are permitted to recklessly endanger the limbs and lives of helpless opponents without being suitably punished, David Stern’s puffed-up campaign to eradicate violence from the NBA is a charade.”

“There’s only one fool-proof method to prevent vacant lots like Danny Fortson from randomly mugging defenseless rivals like Zarko Cabarkapa: Suspend his meaningless mass for as long as it takes the broken right wrist of the Suns rookie to heal completely.”

“Why should other gangstas or wankstas be the least bit subdued about submarining a superstar if Fortson is eligible to maim and mangle for the Mavericks a week from now while his victim is shelved six-to-eight?”

“After 25 years of rule, can it be Stern (and obtuse advisers) still doesn’t grasp the potential danger of maliciously destabilizing a player in mid-flight? Can it be the commissioner doesn’t comprehend that Cabarkapa could’ve been injured far more seriously late in the fourth quarter of a 30—point Phoenix blowout when Fortson maliciously shoved him with two hands while he was airborne?”

“What’s he saying? Attempted murder is no problem; you have to murder somebody on one of my courts before I’ll outlaw the brazen disregard for the safety of the susceptible?”  

Man, I miss the invectives in Vecsey’s columns!  He’s active on Twitter but his long form rage was fun. 

The Lawsuit

Fortson was apparently quite angry about being called a thug and all that other stuff and sued Colangelo, The New York Post, and Vecsey.  The odd thing was the lawsuit was not filed in the heat of the moment like the Carter-Camby beef.  No, Fortson’s complaint was not filed until October 25, 2004, nearly a year after the shove.  Fortson was no longer on the Mavs and things were going pretty well for him in Seattle.  You would have thought that everyone had forgotten about the incident by then but, for some reason, Fortson thought this lawsuit was necesssary.  

On its face, the lawsuit seemed silly too.  Calling Fortson a thug wasn’t nice but it was opinion-based and Fortson wasn’t exactly in the NBA for his finesse.  Thug might be strong but his role was to be physical.  In his own deposition testimony, Fortson admitted he played “physical” and that he is “an enforcer on [his] team.”  Also, what’s the harm to Fortson’s reputation?  Fortson didn’t lose his job and, if anything, suing the owner of an NBA team might be more harmful to future employment prospects and reputation. 

Well, the courts agreed.  In 2006, the action was dismissed.  In so holding, the court gave detailed analysis of the issues and found the following:

– Colangelo’s “thug” comments:  Colangelo argued it was his opinion that Fortson was a thug but that the statement was made in the “heat of the moment” anyway and not calculated to imply that Fortson was literally a criminal.  The court agreed and noted that “given Fortson’s well-publicized history of overly aggressive play (fouls, ejections, fines, and suspensions), coupled with the tone and timing of allegedly defamatory remarks (an angry remark following a game in which Fortson sidelined a Suns player for an extended period), no reasonable listener could conclude that Colangelo’s invocation of the term ‘thug’ was anything but hyperbolic.” 

-Vecsey column: The court found that “[t] he context in which the Vecsey statements were published is of critical import…. [Vescey’s Hoop du Jour] Column holds itself out as containing subjective content and is a vehicle through which basketball fans can read of Vecsey’s thoughts and opinions on the NBA. Because the challenged statements were made through a medium that fosters debate on basketball issues and that routinely uses figurative or hyperbolic language, a reasonable reader is more likely to regard its content as opinion and/or rhetorical hyperbole.”  For that reason, no one obviously would conclude that Vecsey thought Fortson had really acted criminally. 

Amusingly, the court did a thorough analysis as to why phrases like “thugged out,”“meaningless mass,” “gangstas or wankstas,” and “attempted murder” were not defamatory.  Not shockingly, the court wasn’t buying the argument that Vecsey was accusing Fortson of literal attempted murder of Cabarkapa. I also found it sort of funny that NBA VP Stu Jackson had to be deposed to explain the NBA’s disciplinary decisions for this case.  I’m sure he was not happy about a deposition in such a silly case.

The court also repeatedly noted the elephant in the room.  Specifically, that there was no real dispute Fortson did not play with a light touch.  The opinion wrote an extensive footnote on samples of Fortson’s disciplinary incidents:

-January 31, 1998: flagrant 2 for “a rough tackle of Shawn Bradley”

-January 2, 2002: flagrant 1 for “elbowing Brian Skinner in the head”

-March 14, 2002: flagrant 2 for “grabbing Shaquille O’Neal around the throat and flagrantly fouling Rick Fox”

-March 29, 2002: flagrant foul for hitting Ben Wallace

-February 10, 2005: This one is interesting enough to quote the court at length: “two game suspension for throwing a chair into the air following a game ejection, which, in turn, followed a verbal altercation with Chris Webber; incident resulted in Jackson speaking to Fortson’s coaches and team management about his over-aggressive style of play.” (Not a great idea for Fortson to throw chairs while he had a lawsuit pending premised on the argument that he was a clean player).

The court dismissed the case by pointing out that sports and hype are natural bedfellows: “Colangelo and Vecsey invoked “phrases of some vividness, used them in a figurative, not literal, sense, [and they] used a form of hyperbole typical in sports parlance. To foreclose the use of hyperbole, under the threat of civil liability, would condemn [sports commentary] to an arid, desiccated recital of bare facts.”  The First Amendment clearly should protect this type of speech but there is middle ground between bare fact reporting and accusing Fortson of “attempted murder.”  Still, the court’s point is definitely correct.

Postscript on Zarko and Danny

Fortson did have a few more suspensions after the lawsuit:

He was suspended two games in December 2005 for berating an official and failing to leave the court timely.

In March 2007, the Sonics suspended him two games for blowing off practice. The UPI write up of the incident indicated that Fortson’s knees were chronically sore and he was barely playing.  He retired after the 2006-07 season.

In all, Fortson played three more seasons after the Zarko shove and Forston was paid about $19 million over that time. His career did not end because he hit Zarko but because of injuries and his limited skill set.  He did not appear to pay any price for the lawsuit, though I’m sure Colangelo wouldn’t have signed him.

As for Cabarkapa, Phoenix traded Zarko to the Warriors early in the 2004-05 season and he was moderately effective for GS.  Cabarkapa regressed in 2005-06 because of a severe back injury and he retired from basketball (with the exception of a brief return to a team in Montenegro in 2008).  He currently works in management of a Turkish basketball team.

Sound and Fury Signifying Thuggery?

So, what did this all mean?  In the end, this lawsuit was silly but had no real effect on any of the parties, except for some attorneys who probably were paid quite a bit to litigate the key issue of whether “thug” and “wanksta” were defamatory. 

It’s tough to determine whether Fortson passionately wanted to file the ill-fated lawsuit or whether he was talked into by some other party.  Or perhaps the entire lawsuit was a pretense to depose his nemesis Stu Jackson.  Whatever the case, to Fortson’s credit, the court seemed to agree that Fortson didn’t specifically intend to injure Cabarkapa, though Colangelo never quite said that anyway.  Fortson would’ve been just as well letting incident fade away from public consciousness but emotions were still raw.  Nearly 20 years later, Fortson can take solace in the fact that he still has quite a few fans. But, yes, the lawsuit was not a great idea.

A Lookback at Butch Carter v. Marcus Camby

The First Amendment has been getting a work out recently.  The number of high profile defamation suits seems larger than ever.  All these lawsuits took my mind to the NBA and defamation. Specifically, the lawsuit I remember that came one fateful day in late April 2000, when the Knicks were about to play the Raptors in the first round of the NBA playoffs.  Raptors head coach Butch Carter filed a defamation suit against former Raptor and then-current Knick Marcus Camby claiming that Camby had besmirched Carter’s good name by calling him a liar and someone no players liked.

The NBA is no stranger to lawsuits relating to contracts.  There are even a few lawsuits where players sue others over unpaid loans.  Remember when Alex English sued Kareem?  (They settled).  Or when Maurice Taylor sued Eddy Curry? (I assume it settled but it was litigated extensively).  But Carter’s suit was different.  This was a suit where he alleged he was besmirched by a former player.  Intuitively, this lawsuit seems silly.  Dissing former coaches is a tried-and-true tradition in the NBA. The criticism floats around the league for a bit and then is promptly forgotten by everyone else, who just assume the two people at issue hate each other.  Suing a player for defamation?  That seems to be more memorable and, even if successful, the victory could prove pyrrhic.  Who wants to play for someone who will sue them to resolve a personal non-monetary dispute?

On top of that, defamation suits are hard to establish in general, and much harder still for public figures to prove.  But sometimes the truth matters and it is theoretically possible a defamation suit wasn’t as crazy as it seemed on its face. Let’s go back in time and see how we got to a lawsuit and whether it makes more sense in context, as well as whether we can figure out what Carter was thinking.

Butch’s NBA Career

Any examination of this kerfuffle must start with Carter’s background before becoming a head coach.  Carter was the oldest of seven siblings from Middletown, Ohio.  He was a high school star and a serviceable college player for Indiana (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.1 apg as a senior) on a good team with several future pros (Isiah Thomas, Ray Tolbert, Mike Woodson, Jim Thomas, Randy Wittman).  Carter was a second-round pick in the NBA and he bounced around the NBA for six season (through 1985-86) as a decent backup/low end starter.  His best season was 1983-84 with the Pacers where he put up 13.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, which was quite respectable for a role guy in college.

Butch’s Coaching Career

After retiring, Carter returned to Ohio and coached high school basketball and worked in business.  At the same time, he was helping his younger brother, Cris Carter, who would go on to become a Hall of Fame wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings.  In 1987, Cris was a wide receiver at Ohio State and became embroiled in an NCAA scandal where he took loans from some shady agents in violation of rules.  A Sports Illustrated story from 1987 noted that Butch was Cris’ guardian in some respects and “wanted Cris to follow the straight and narrow” and Butch worked to disentangle Cris from the situation.

At about the same time, Butch worked his way up the coaching ranks to college assistant to pro assistant coach by 1991.  In 1997, Isiah was running the front office of the Toronto Raptors and hired Butch as an assistant coach for the team.  Thomas had an eventful tenure running the expansion Raptors. He drafted Damon Stoudamire, Camby, and Tracy McGrady in successive years. Stoudamire started out great as a Rookie of the Year and Camby and McGrady ended up being better (but took a little time to develop).

Thomas was GM and part owner, but attempted to purchase full control of the team.  When he was unable to raise the funds for full control, Thomas abruptly cashed out and resigned in November 1997.  After Thomas left, his carefully built core bristled.  Coach Darrell Walker, a Thomas loyalist, was notably agitated by the franchise and the team’s bad record.  In particular, he took shots at the 18-year old rookie McGrady, who was their most important building block.  In February 1998, the Raptors were an awful 11-38 and they traded Stoudamire because the Raptors felt they could not re-sign the pending free agent.  Walker resigned in protest, telling the AP that: “I don’t mind coaching an expansion team, but I wanted to see some light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t see any light.”

The organization was in total disarray.  Carter was hastily named the interim head coach and sounded a positive attitude: “If you look at the trade statistically, it’s very close.  What we need to do now is make these new players feel wanted.”  Despite the positivity, the Raptors were even worse under Carter to finish the season (5-28).  The Raptors kept Carter was head coach for the 1998-99 season anyway because he had a good rapport with McGrady and because, frankly, the organization needed a positive outlook after the traumatic ending to the Isiah/Stoudamire run.

Why did Toronto trade Camby?

Camby was a star college player at UMass for John Calipari and the Raptors took him with the second pick in the legendary 1996 NBA Draft.  Like everyone, Camby’s time in Toronto was shaky because of the front office turmoil.  On the court, he was pretty good but had a reputation for being soft because he was not physically strong (he was decidedly lanky for a big man) and had some injury struggles. 

On top of that, early in the 1997-98 season, news broke that Camby had accepted money and prostitutes from an agent when Camby was in college.  It’s debatable how much Camby could’ve been faulted for being a dumb college kid who was essentially blackmailed by a predatory agent.  Nevertheless, between injuries and scandal, Camby’s stock was lower than it probably should’ve been.  In fact, Camby led the NBA with 3.7 blocks per game in 1997-98 (12.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg as well) and was only 23.  The Raps decided to trade him to the Knicks for the much older Charles Oakley after the season anyway. 

Why dump Camby for a modest return?  Was it an issue between Camby and Carter?  There isn’t much pre-trade friction reported between Camby and Carter except this report indicating that Camby missed a late season meeting in 1998.  The real answer seems to be money.  A report from Dave D’Alessandro of the Newark Star-Ledger attributed the trade to Toronto not wanting to give Camby a big extension in the summer of 1999.  D’Alessandro wrote that Camby “comes at the bargain rate for the simple reason that Toronto doesn’t want to re-sign him to a long-term deal this summer, which NBA teams can do with their own free agents after they complete the first two seasons of the standard three-year rookie deal…. and the Raptors have had trouble convincing their stockholders that endowing $40 million or $50 million to a relatively immature building block was a worthwhile investment.”  So, this trade probably came way above Carter’s pay grade.

Carter v. Camby

Camby had a slow start in New York but famously helped take them to the 1998-99 Finals and did great thereafter.  Meanwhile, in Toronto, Carter helped develop McGrady and young rookie star Vince Carter (no relation).  Toronto missed the playoffs in 1998-99 but were very competitive (23-27) and both McGrady and Vince were getting buzz as a potential start duo.

In 1999-00, the Raptors were even better (45-37).  VC and T-Mac continued to improve and Butch Carter was publicly getting credit for the continued positive vibes in Toronto.  In April 2020, the Knicks and Raptors were meeting in the first round of the playoffs and that is when the Carter/Camby beef blossomed.  On April 19, 2000, Camby, who by most accounts is a calm and amiable guy, did an interview where he called Butch Carter “a liar” because Carter promised that Camby would have a future in Toronto, yet Camby was traded a few days later.  Camby further claimed that none of the Raptors players liked their coach.

How true were Camby’s claims?

The first question to consider in defamation is the truth.  If Camby’s statements were true, then nothing else matter.  If they were false (or arguably reckless as to truth), then the case still might get tossed but the standard of review is different.  Thus, let’s start with the truth testing…

The answer seems to lie in the details of Carter’s tenure as coach.  The win totals continued to go up three straight seasons but, in reality, despite the success on the court, Carter’s job status was still tenuous.  GM Glen Grunwald, who had also played at Indiana, inherited the GM job when his boss Isiah left.  Grunwald and Butch were not quite so tight (Grunwald played at Indiana and was friendly with Isiah.  In fact, Grunwald later became Knicks GM when Isiah left New York).  Butch was outspoken in the job and had a few issues that didn’t help his tenure:

-Butch and Cris wrote a book in Spring 2000 about their lives and, in one chapter, Butch accused his old Indiana coach Bobby Knight of using racial epithets at a player.  According to Chris Young who wrote “Drive: How Vince Carter Conquered the NBA,” the anonymous player was thought to be Isiah.  Young wrote that Grunwald was “still loyal” to Knight and backed Knight while “Carter felt betrayed by Grunwald for not backing up his story.”  Isiah also was unhappy with the story and denied it.

-In the fall of 1999, Butch invited rapper Master P to training camp in a publicity stunt.  Young wrote that Carter thought that the Raptors “could give [Master P] the last spot on the injured list for the season….[and Master P could] take some of the spotlight and pressure off of Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady.”  Grunwald aborted that plan and it was another tension point and revealed how little control Butch had over personnel decisions.

-McGrady would be a free agent after the 1999-00 season and there was a lot of intrigue about whether he would resign with the Raps.  The pressure grew as the team, and T-Mac, continued improving.  At one point, Butch claimed there was a conspiracy engineered by the NBA to move T-Mac and Vince Carter to the United States, telling the Globe and Mail that “I think the league wants a guy like Vince Carter up in the States.”  The NBA was clearly annoyed by these types of theories.

-Butch also stated out loud that the NHL Maple Leafs were more important to the Toronto ownership group than the Raptors.   This was obviously true but not a great thing to say publicly to the people who sign your checks.

Okay, got all that but did Butch lie to Camby?

What we know from all of the above is that Carter had no control over where Camby was going.  Even if he truly believed that Camby would be a foundational piece, at the time of their alleged conversation, Carter was an interim coach coming off of a horrible season in the end of 1997-98.  Butch was lucky to make it to 1998-99, let alone make decisions about whether management would pay Camby $50 million.  Even when he was having success, Grunwald didn’t even let Butch stash Master P on the injured list!  So, there is no way Carter had any hand in any trade.  Camby may have believed he did but the evidence indicates Carter wasn’t involved in the trade.  It wouldn’t have killed Butch to call Camby and give a “good luck” phone call after the deal but that’s about all he owed Camby at that point.

Did the players hate Butch?

There is some pretty strong evidence that Butch Carter was not loved by his many players.  Young wrote that the locker room had issues with Butch: “Those older players weren’t impressed with the neophyte coach. ‘He’s a control freak who’s losing control,’ said Oakley….’The ship is sinking, man,’ McGrady drawled.  Some veteran players threatened to boycott the team’s annual Rap-Up dinner and charity auction, a normally lighthearted event that key sponsors and supports of the team pay upwards of $250 each to attend, until Carter promised them he would leave after a half-hour.   When the coach stayed longer, they began walking out.”  That’s pretty strong evidence that many players detested Carter and that Camby was telling the truth on that issue.

The Lawsuit

Regardless of objective and subjective truth, Carter apparently was ready to sue.  On the eve of the playoff series, Jackie MacMullan of Sports Illustrated set the scene: “[w]hile Camby was at practice last Friday, his girlfriend was served with the lawsuit at Camby’s Larchmont, N.Y., house. The suit demanded $5 million in damages. The following afternoon, Carter said he would consider dropping the suit if Camby apologized.”  I couldn’t find the complaint online but presumably the “liar” remark and that “players hate him” were the defamatory statements.

The reactions?  MacMullan broke the cast of characters down:

-Knicks coach Jeff Van Gundy said “the players burst out laughing.” 

-Grunwald refused to comment “with a pained look.” 

-Anonymous Raptor: “It doesn’t bother us.  We already know Butch is nuts.”  (This Raptor was “smiling” when he said this).

-Cris Carter: “What do you want me to say?  He’s my brother.”

-The NBA: Russ Granik NBA Deputy Commissioner: “A coach suing a player over his public comments seems unprecedented and highly inappropriate.”

This sounds like everyone thought the lawsuit was a really bad idea, particularly when your employer and the NBA are visibly unhappy.

What was Butch thinking?

Nothing particularly good but there were few explanations why this lawsuit wasn’t totally ridiculous.  Let’s review them:

A.            Psychological warfare and, um, book sales?

MacMullan attempted to come up with rationales for why the suit might make sense: “[m]aybe it was psychological playoff warfare, as the Knicks suggested. Maybe it was a way to drum up interest in the brothers’ book. Or maybe it was, as Butch conceded, in part a ploy to deflect pressure from his young stars, Vince, 23, and Tracy McGrady, 20.”

If it was psychological warfare, it was pretty weak sauce.  NBA disputes are settled on the court, winner-take-all and the last thing the Raps needed was to give the Knicks’ more motivation.  Similarly, Vince and T-Mac might not feel less pressure when they are hounded with questions about what the hell their coach was doing.  The book explanation was possible but not very good.  Promoting a book at the potential expense of your team is a really bad look and, arguably, a breach of his employment contract (if it was true).

B.            Bobby Knight strikes?

David Aldridge wrote an article for ESPN.com positing that the Bobby Knight controversy may have been the impetus.  Aldridge noted that the Knight accusation was a big deal: “my minions tell me what [the Camby lawsuit is] really about is credibility. And Robert Montgomery Knight. Not necessarily in that order….You’ll recall that Carter accused Knight of uttering a racial slur against an unnamed African-American player who people believe to be Isiah Thomas. Just about everyone has denied it happened…. Make no mistake: the General has a lot of friends in the NBA. Friends who could, one supposes, make it hard on Butch Carter.  So, my spies tell me, Carter felt that Camby’s public statements accusing him of being a liar were part of a smear campaign against his credibility. How so? Well, Camby’s current agent, Rick Kaplan, used to be the Raptors’ public relations man, before he took a job working for … Isiah Thomas. “

This also seems ridiculous.  I’m not questioning Carter’s Knight story one way or the other (Knight is a well-documented jerk) but the notion that Camby would care enough to coordinate with Isiah or Knight seems….far-fetched.  It certainly is possible that Carter felt ganged up on because Indiana alumni uniformly rallied around Knight but there is no way Camby gave a crap about the Knight stuff or made any decisions as a result.  Camby’s dislike of Butch Carter was independent of all that. Again, Butch may have felt the need to vindicate his name with Camby because of the Knight dispute but the two disputes were obviously totally unrelated to any outside observer.

C.            A defamation suit once actually worked for Carter?

In “Drive,” Young gives the best explanation for the suit.  Butch had actually sued for defamation and gotten satisfaction in the past: “[Butch] sued former Dayton head coach Joe O’Brien and athletic director Elaine Dredaime, contending the pair made false statements that defamed him, cost him a chance to become the school’s head basketball coach and forced him to leave college coaching.  The suit was eventually dismissed after an out-of-court settlement was reached.  ‘It makes people tell the truth,” Carter said of the strategy. ‘In the past for me, it’s been highly successful.’”

So, it seems that Carter went the defamation route and won before AND he was still smarting from the bad reception he got for the Knight story in his book.  The problem is that not every defamation suit is the same.  If someone lies about you and that prevents you from getting a job, you have a concrete defamation claim. There is a quantifiable fact to assess and quantifiable damages that resulted. 

The Camby situation was totally different.  Without getting into the weeds of defamation and the First Amendment, it is fair to say that more nebulous concepts about the character of a speaker are very different than the Dayton situation.   Indeed, defamation cases usually breakdown through the following lenses: (a) most speech is protected, (b) speech that is opinion is usually protected, (c) public figures have a higher standard of proof in a defamation case than a private citizen, and (d) usually, there has to be showing of monetary damages from any alleged defamation.  Here, Butch had little to go on with Camby.  Calling Carter a “liar” about the trade might’ve been upsetting (and, objectively, the wrong conclusion based upon Grunwald’s control of personnel) but Camby was entitled to his opinion.  Similarly, “everyone hates Butch” sounds like opinion (and objectively, pretty accurate).  On top of all that, even if Camby had been lying on purpose, Carter couldn’t point to any damages from the statements.  Really, the existence of the lawsuit hurt Carter’s career more than the statements themselves.

The NBA strongly encouraged Carter to promptly withdraw the lawsuit, which he did a few days later.  The Raps were swept fairly easily by the Knicks.  It’s not clear how much effect the lawsuit had on the outcome but it obviously didn’t help.  Young wrote that one anonymous player said that the Raptors “just wanted the season to end” and that Butch was feuding with vets Dee Brown, Doug Christie, and Oakley.  To add insult to injury, instead of apologizing, Camby “sidled over to [Carter during the game] and, sotto voce, delivered his own rebuttal: ‘You fuck.’”

Things got weirder….

Butch Carter was not immediately fired after the series.  But he was not chastened either.  Young reported that “the coach wanted to add the general manager title to his own and to push Grunwald upstairs into some sort of undefined, uber-boss position….Carter apparently suggested that McGrady support him in his bid for the GM’s job.”  It takes a lot of…ummm…confidence to try to take your bosses job right after the lawsuit/playoff sweep.  Butch seemed to think he had leverage due to his relationship with T-Mac and Vince.

But McGrady, a pending free agent, told reporters he was unlikely to return to Toronto and mentioned “we have all this other stuff going on in the organization.  It’s not the time to be going through that right now.  I mean the Butch stuff, I mean all that.”  Vince Carter also was not enthusiastic to save Butch.  If the two stars didn’t care about Butch, the Raptors really had no great reason to keep him except that he had three years and $6 million left on his coaching deal.

Young noted that there may have been a method to Butch’s madness, he didn’t want to coach anymore: “[t]hat Butch Carter may have wanted to leave was apparent—he had asked Toronto management about the possibility of doing just that as early as two days after the season had ended.  Now that it was happening, Carter seemed relieved….[Carter said that:] ’I wanted out of a bad situation…I wasn’t troubled, but I could see trouble coming for the group.’”  Carter and the Raptors negotiated a buyout where he received $4 million of the $6 million due on the contract and never coached in the NBA again. 

So, what the hell actually happened?

It seems that Carter was not an easy guy to get along with.  He was angry that he was not supported by his organization on the book controversy, that some players didn’t like him, and that his core of T-Mac and VC was not likely to remain together.  Camby’s disses were the cherry on the sundae and Butch wasn’t going to take being screwed with by everyone continually.

The lawsuit was not meritorious and I’m sure his attorney told him that it had little chance of success.  I can only imagine the discussions with his attorney during this process and Carter telling him to get the complaint filed anyway.  Either way, Carter did get the fleeting cathartic moment when he imagined Camby’s face when he got served with the complaint.  Still, it was a road to nowhere.  Carter didn’t seem to totally care because he wanted out of Toronto and wasn’t particularly interested in being an NBA coach anyway.  There were probably easier ways to accomplish these goals without going full scorched Earth but it left us with a crazy story to revisit 21+ years later.

Postscript

-After 2000, Butch went back into the business world, running a bunch of companies and looks like he found peace, which is nice.  There are quite a few podcasts available with him chatting hoops. 

-The Raptors lost McGrady to Orlando, where T-Mac became a superstar.  The Raps hired the calmer Lenny Wilkens as coach and the team was better with just Vince Carter in 2000-01.  Alas, VC had injury issues and would also have a messy divorce with the team a few years later.

-Camby did great for the Knicks and had a very successful career through 2013.

Breaking Down the Harden Deal

How do you wrap your head around this recent James Harden trade?  This epically large trade was as follows:

Nets get: James Harden from Rockets, 2024 second-round pick from Cavs

Rockets get: Caris Levert, Rodions Kurucs, three first-round picks (2022, 2024, and 2026) from Nets, and four options to swap first round-pick with the Nets; Dante Exum and 2022 first-round pick (Milwaukee’s) from Cavaliers

Cavaliers get: Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince, and rights to Aleksandar Vezenkov from Nets

That really is a lot to unpack.  Let’s breakdown the trade and its aftermath for the teams involved FAQ style…

Should the Nets have “gone for it”?

The Nets’ mindset was correct.  They have a limited window to compete for a title while Kevin Durant is still in his prime and the current core did not look like a serious title contender.  Yes, the Nets were a top-four team in the East and there was a chance this could gel but struggles against Charlotte and Memphis were not good signs.  In spite of this, before the Harden trade, the Nets’ playoff probability had already increased since the start of the season to last week, from an average of 95% to 97.8%, as of January 5th.

The goal here is to load up with the best possible team to try for a title in these next two years.  The real issue is whether Harden was the right fit for that moonshot.  The Nets have been very good offensively (5th in the NBA) and their weaknesses are elsewhere (12th in defensive rating and last in offensive rebounds allowed).  Harden, as great as he is, doesn’t necessarily address the clearest areas for improvement.

On the other hand, this is James Freaking Harden.  He is an unstoppable offensive player and will make the team better.  The other looming factor is Kyrie Irving.  It’s not clear why exactly he left the team recently and when he will be back.  If Kyrie is not in the long-term plan, Harden makes a lot of sense but it does lead to more questions namely:

If Irving is coming back (which is expected), how the hell are the Nets going to get proper value from three high usage players? 

Durant has a career 30.2 usage (31.5 this year) and Kyrie is 29.3 for his career (30.4 this year).  Harden has had a 33.3 usage rate on Houston (though it was down to 29.3 as he moped his way through this season).  The obvious answer is their touches will go down a bit.  Let’s see how usage and effectiveness were affected in a few other “super team” scenarios:

1996-97 Rockets: The Hakeem Olajuwon/Clyde Drexler Rockets famously brought in Charles Barkley for a slew of players.  Barkley’s usage dropped from 27.5 to 23.2 but his BPM was identical.  In other words, he fit in well but agreed to curtail his offensive game a little (on the other side, his rebound and assist rates spiked).  Meanwhile, Hakeem’s usage dropped slightly (31.9 to 30.4) but was essentially the same player.  Drexler rate stats were the same and he was also essentially the same player.  It was a good team but their lack of depth (particularly at point guard) did them in against Utah in the playoffs.

2014-15 Cavaliers: When LeBron James came back to Cleveland, the aforementioned Kyrie was there and had a 28.2 usage without LBJ. James came and brought in Kevin Love from the Wolves.  They were a good team and made the Finals but here’s how they fit together from a usage perspective:

-Kyrie, 26.2 (-2.0 from prior season)

-Love, 21.7 (-7.1 from prior season)

-James 32.3 (+1.3 from prior season)

In the coming years, Kyrie and Love did get more shots but LBJ was the clear boss.  In terms of effectiveness, only Love took a big hit in stat numbers.

2016-17 Warriors:  The last example involves KD fitting in with the Warriors.  GS needed Durant to mesh with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson (who was much less of a star than any of the names above).  Curry looked like the best player in the NBA during the 2015-16 regular season (11.9 BPM, 32.6 usage) but he took a small step back for KD.  Curry’s stats were great but not quite the same (6.9 BPM on 30.1 usage).  Durant sacrificed a little bit too (usage dropped from 30.6 to 27.8, BPM from 9.9 to 8.9).  Finally, Klay’s usage stayed about the same and, like Drexler, was essentially the same player.

I skipped a few other potential super teams (2003-04 Lakers, 2007-08 Celtics, and 2010-11 Heat) but what we’ve seen is that, in all these prior cases, one of the big three stars has to take a stat hit to fit in.  Barkley transformed his game to effective power forward/second option. Kevin Love (and Chris Bosh in Miami) also gave up shots.  In GS, Curry and Durant both compromised a bit for the overall good (Thompson, a catch-and-shoot guy was not affected by the move).

The big difference in Brooklyn is that Kyrie and Harden are valuable because they create shots and possessions.  None of the other scenarios above involved two ball-dominant guards meshing together.  To use an older example, I don’t see Kyrie playing the Earl Monroe role to Harden’s Clyde Frazier.  It is possible that the Nets figure this out but it does not intuitively fit. In other words, the Nets will still be good but this could get awkward and doesn’t definitely make them the best team in the east.

Why did the Nets give up so many draft picks?

Frankly, I’m not sure.  The three picks have indeterminate value but to throw in the three draft swaps seems excessive.  The only way that makes sense is if Philly (or someone else) drove up the asking price in a bidding war.  If the Nets win a title (or make a Finals or two) the price will have been worth it but one would have to think they could’ve gotten better future draft pick protection.  It is possible that the three-to-six picks don’t turn into a ton of value but the future theoretical exposure here is quite large.

The Nets other parts…

In addition to having to figure out how Irving and Harden fit with each other, the Nets lost some depth with Levert and Allen.  Levert’s loss should be offset by the fact that one of KD, Kyrie, or Harden will be playing at almost all times.  Allen’s loss hurt a bit more because he was a pretty good center (better than DeAndre Jordan).  The Nets will have to get creative with undersized centers.  The other hope is that the Nets’ player development wing, which has done a great job generating players (when they last gave away all their picks to the Celtics) might do the same with Reggie Perry, Bruce Brown, and/or others.

The Rockets’ End

That was a fairly impressive haul for a trade made under duress.  Of course, they still have to hit on the picks.  We recently wrote about how the Warriors turned three first-rounders they got for Chris Webber into Todd Fuller, Antwan Jamison, and Larry Hughes.  GS didn’t totally miss on the picks either.  They did okay on two of them (but taking Fuller over Kobe and Nash was an epic fail).  It’s relatively nice outcome for the Rockets but it is tempered by the fact good players have to be available in the draft, and they have to draft well.  Not everyone hits it out of the park like Danny Ainge did with his Nets picks.