Who Is Your Most Likely Hall of Famer? (Central Division)

We now turn to the Central Division in our Hall of Fame segment.  Just as a reminder, we are looking for the next player most likely to make the Hall of Fame for each franchise.  The guidelines, can be found here.  Let’s begin…

1.    Chicago Bulls: Outside of the Michael Jordan Era, the Hall of Fame doesn’t have much in the way of candidates.  As great as the 1990s were, the Bulls franchise has few other highlights.  Currently, Derrick Rose is on the path but needs a lot more time before we actually assess him.  From the pre-MJ days, Artis Gilmore was a great candidate but: (1) he just got in and (2) is, arguably, not best remembered as a Bull (he played equal stints with Kentucky and San Antonio).

Now that Gilmore is off the list, the clear best candidate is Chet Walker.  We noted Walker last time when we looked at the 76er candidates and found him to the best non-Iverson candidate.  Last time, we also noted that we would try to avoid assessing a player as potential Hall of Famer for more than one franchise unless that player was truly Hall worthy for both teams.  In Walker’s case, he played slightly longer for Philly than he did for the Bulls.  Still, Walker was actually better for the Bulls and he really is the best candidate (Walker was in the top ten in win shares each year he played on the Bulls).

Speaking of Walker, his teammates from the 1970s are marginal candidates.  Bob Love was an effective scoring forward and Norm Van Lier a solid guard but neither had PERs over 18 ever and both had relatively short careers.  For a wild card candidate, we have Toni Kukoc.  Kukoc played at an All-Star level from 1994-95 to 1996-97 but no one noticed because the team was so star heavy at the time (Kukoc mostly came off the bench).  If you don’t remember Kukoc, he was hyped as the European Magic Johnson in Croatia before he came over to the United States.  The Bulls (actually GM Jerry Krause) obsessed about pairing him with Jordan to the point that Krause seemed willing to discard better-than-expected Scottie Pippen for Kukoc, which caused periodic rifts between Pippen and the Bulls.

Kukoc hemmed and hawed about coming to the NBA for several years before finally coming over at age-25 in 1993-94, shortly before MJ’s first retirement.  Kukoc soldiered on and was part of three title teams with Jordan.  As mentioned, Kukoc was an All-Star level player during that time.  After Jordan retired, Kukoc spent another eight years as a valuable reserve with Philly, Atlanta, and Milwaukee.  Kukoc was never a Hall of Famer on his NBA accomplishments but if Drazen Petrovic is in, a fellow Euro legend with a nice pro career could make it in too.  Walker is the choice here on all levels but Kukoc is far from a crazy pick.

-Best Non-Hall of Famer in Franchise:  Chet Walker

-Best Eligible Hall of Famer in Franchise:  Chet Walker

-If Springfield Had to Choose One Now:  Chet Walker


Who Is Your Most Likely Hall of Famer? (Atlantic Division)

We just took a month off from writing in hopes that the NBA labor stalemate would move forward while we all thought of other things.  Unfortunately, the world of the NBA present is still stuck in neutral (and possibly even reverse).  On the bright side, we can spend as much time talking about the NBA’s past here as its present.  I thought we could use some our time to take another look at the Hall of Fame.

I know that discussion of the Hall of Fame tends to be a lightning rod.  There are some fans who believe the institution has made the wrong choices and needs fixing and hate the confidential selection process.  There are other fans who are agnostic about the Hall and wonder, for many different reasons, whether there is value to intensely debating which former players gets official recognition for deeds that were accomplished long ago.  I tend to fall into the latter group.  Sure, I don’t think Dennis Johnson was a strong Hall of Famer but he was good and it would’ve been really cool if he had gotten that honor when he was still alive.

Having said all that, I do have my opinions on who belongs in the Hall, though I lack the passion to really worry about it.   Watching the Hall ceremony last month, I did find myself wondering whether Chris Mullin or Dennis Rodman really belonged in the Hall.  I won’t do the analysis now but both certainly have good cases, even if I think there may be better options out there.  In so wondering, it was the “better options” thought that really stuck in my mind.  I wondered, who is the best player, per franchise, not currently in the Hall.  In the next few weeks, we’ll run through this question, by division, starting today with the Atlantic Division.

Nuclear Summer (and Winter?)

Until recently, the NBA-NBPA negotiations have been relatively quiet but now things are starting to get a bit funky.  The players have doubted the amount of money losses that the NBA has set forth in their financials, which has created an impasse.  More recently, the NBPA filed a complaint with NLRB claiming that the NBA has not been bargaining in good faith.  In other words, the NBPA did not like that the NBA was not budging and sought leverage by getting a ruling from the NLRB that would make the NBA make concessions.  The NLRB complaint is pending but it seems like a long shot since, absent some sort of proof of egregious behavior.  The complaint really just boils down to the fact that the NBPA doesn’t like that the NBA doesn’t want to move on a deal but there really isn’t a reason that a party to a labor negotiation can refuse to accede to terms it feels are unfavorable.

Rather, the NBPA’s best hope of killing the lockout was mapped out in this summer’s NFL labor dispute, where the NFLPA decertified, meaning that it no longer would exist as a union.  The import of this move, from a legal perspective, is that the league would no longer be permitted to lockout the players, since federal law only allows owners to lockout a formally certified union.  Once in violation of federal law, the owners would be exposed to a potential antitrust lawsuit and treble damages (triple the amount of financial damages that were proven, as well as attorneys fees). 

Quick Thoughts

1.    Labor Crap: One of the more entertaining seasons in recent memory is over and we are left with a nasty hangover in the form of a likely prolonged labor dispute.  There already has been a lot of great stuff written about the dispute and the issues seem to have been well identified. Still, we will take our shot and see if we break any new or different ground.  It is complicated negotiation but let’s boil it down to its essence anyway:  the NBA states that most of its teams are not profitable and they want to impose a hard cap on salaries and renegotiate the revenue split (currently the players receive 57% of revenues).    Sounds pretty simple right?  Just pick some numbers in the middle and find a reasonable split and go play ball.  Not so fast.

The NBA has opened its books to show its calculations as to why it needs to change the system and shown losses of $360 million.  The players have taken the position that the losses of roughly $360 million are overstated and based upon creative accounting.  Specifically, the NBPA has argued that the losses are unfairly enhanced by about 150% based upon accounting tricks.  The NBPA says the losses are actually closer to $90 million because the NBA has counted amortization and depreciation of costs when teams are sold to create paper losses that don’t reflect the actual financial status of the teams.  Indeed, this week Nate Silver of the New York Times wrote an article that concluded, based upon number provided by Forbes, the NBA is, in fact, quite profitable. The NBA quickly responded stating that the Forbes data was totally wrong and that the losses projected were not related to any accounting tricks (Silver responded to the NBA noting that Forbes’ projections were relatively close to those seen in leaked financials of the New Orleans Hornets but conceding that without the actual data his projections did rest on assumptions that cannot be verified. 

NBA Draft 2011: Draft Grades

The question of this draft was to take the PG or the forward first. There was some debate, but most stuff I read and heard seemed to favor going with Kyrie Irving at the top pick. That was my feeling. History would also seem to favor going with the PG. Going back to the 1966 draft, which was the first with no territorial selections, there have been 10 drafts that where a forward (either power or small) and a PG were drafted 1-2.

Draft

1st pick

2nd pick

Better Career

1966

Cazzie Russell F

Dave Bing PG

PG

1976

John Lucas PG

Scott May F

PG

1979

Magic Johnson PG

David Greenwood F

PG

1981

Mark Aguirre F

Isaih Thomas PG

PG

1990

Derrick Coleman F

Gary Payton PG

PG

1991

Larry Johnson F

Kenny Anderson PG

F

1994

Glenn Robinson F

Jason Kidd PG

PG

1999

Elton Brand F

Steve Francis PG

F

2008

Derrick Rose PG

Michael Beasley F

PG

2010

John Wall PG

Evan Turner F

?

2011

Kyrie Irving PG

Derrick Williams F

?

I’m leaving the 2010 debate as an incomplete, though Wall has an early lead. In 7 of 9 drafts the PG outplayed the forward. In most cases it wasn’t even close. Going by career Win Shares, the closest competition was in 1991, when a forward outperformed a guard. Going by history PGs taken in the top 2 generally perform better than forwards drafted immediately before or after them. This doesn’t include 2005 when Marvin Williams was drafted ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. The advice to take from this: When in doubt, draft the PG over the forward. Based on this it appears Kyrie Irving was the right player to draft at the top.

NBA Draft 2011: Our Top 30

Right now it is impossible to know exactly where the 2011 draft will rank in overall badness. Of recent drafts, 2000 stands out as the worst and this one could get there. If Kyrie Irving’s numbers are no more than an 11-game mirage, the foreign centers never develop and the rest of this group achieves only their projected status of career journeymen, then 2011 could easily become the worst draft ever. Of course all it takes is one Bismark Biyombo emerging as a force to change everything. As is the case with presidents, best to let historians sort out the best and worst a few decades down the line. Here my top 30 available players, listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal. This is not to be considered a mock draft, as this isn’t a prediction of how things will transpire, just how I feel things should transpire. I didn’t forget about Jimmer or Kahwi. I just feel both are way over rated.

  1. Kyrie Irving, Duke
  2. Tristan Thompson, Texas
  3. Bismark Biyombo
  4. Jonas Valanciunas
  5. Markieff Morris, Kansas
  6. Marshon Brooks, Providence
  7. Marcus Morris, Kansas
  8. Kenneth Faried, Morehead State
  9. Derrick Williams, Arizona
  10. Enes Kanter *
  11. Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA
  12. Nikola Vucevic, USC
  13. Jan Vesely
  14. Chris Singleton, Florida State
  15. Kemba Walker, Connecticut
  16. Tobias Harris, Tennessee
  17. Nikola Mirotec
  18. Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech
  19. Klay Thompson, Washington State
  20. Trey Thompkins, Georgia
  21. Brandon Knight, Kentucky
  22. Alec Burks, Colorado
  23. Damian Saunders, Duquense
  24. E’Twaun Moore, Purdue
  25. Reggie Jackson, BC
  26. Jordan Hamilton, Texas
  27. Nolan Smith, Duke
  28. Jereme Richmond, Illinois
  29. Jimmy Butler, Marquette
  30. Darius Morris, Michigan

Kanter is included in the top 10 based on his rep.  This is where any enthusiasm starts to wane.  I have no opinion on whether he’s a great prospect or likely bust, because I haven’t seen his numbers. Honestly considering the talent remaining, I would draft Kanter at #10 based on nothing more than his rep.