Quick Thoughts

1.    Big Win In SA:    A few weeks ago, we examined the New Orleans Hornets’ hot start to determine how real it is and how likely it is to continue.  We concluded that the Hornets were pretty good but that staying on 55-60 win pace didn’t seem realistic.  Since that time, however, the Hornets have only stepped up their play, going 9-1.  Most impressively, the Hornets absolutely destroyed the Spurs last night in San Antonio by the score of 102-78.  The Spurs were at full force too, with all three of the big guys (Duncan, Parker, and Manu) all playing.

I know the Spurs don’t always play their best ball in February but the Spurs rarely have such a bad loss at home.  Here’s the list of bad Spurs losses at home the Since 2002-03:

-12/22/06: Rockets win 97-78

-1/12/06: Pistons win 83-68

-11/9/02:  Blazers win 95-76

-12/8/02: Kings win 104-80

-4/16/03: Mavs win 93-72 (last game of season, Duncan did not play)

So, blowing out the Duncan Spurs at home is a rare accomplishment.  In terms how the Hornets took them apart, Chris Paul played his usual game (17 pts, 8-16 shooting, 11 assists, 4 rebs) but the Spurs couldn’t guard David West (15-19 and 32 points) and Peja Stojakovic was hot (9-14 and 4-6 from three for 22 points).  Tyson Chandler also did a good job keeping Duncan down a bit (TD has 17 pts, on 6-12 shooting and 8 rebs).

I still don’t think the Hornets can keep up with the Spurs in the long run but it’s clear that they are competition to be taken seriously.  Be sure to mark 2/23/08 on your calendar–that’s the next time the Hornets come to San Antonio. 

2.    All-Star Distribution:  After writing a bit about this year’s All-Star starters, I thought about All-Star games a little and what significance they might have.  It doesn’t seem like much but you would think that All-Star appearances might indicate team success or, at least, that a particular player is perceived as very good and/or very popular.  Anyway, we’ve been through seven All-Star games so far this decade (if you assume the decade starts in 2000-01), so why not go through and see what we have? 

First, let’s see take look at All-Star distribution by team:

-San Antonio Spurs:  11 appearances (7 for Tim Duncan, 2 for Tony Parker, 1 for Manu Ginobili, 1 for David Robinson)

-Dallas Mavericks:  10 appearances (6 for Dirk Nowitzki, 2 for Steve Nash, 1 for Michael Finley, 1 for Josh Howard)

Houston Rockets:  10 appearances (4 for Yao Ming, 3 for Tracy McGrady, 3 for Steve Francis)

-Detroit Pistons:  10 appearances (4 for Ben Wallace, 2 for Chauncey Billups, 2 for Rip Hamilton, 1 for Rasheed Wallace, 1 for Jerry Stackhouse)

-Phoenix Suns:  10 appearances (4 for Shawn Marion, 2 for Amare Stoudemire, 2 for Steve Nash, 1 for Jason Kidd, 1 for Stephon Marbury)

-Los Angeles Lakers: 9 appearances (7 for Kobe Bryant, 2 for Shaquille O’Neal)

-Minnesota Timberwolves:  9 appearances (7 for Kevin Garnett, 1 for Sam Cassell, 1 for Wally Szczerbiak)

-New Jersey Nets:  8 appearances (3 for Jason Kidd, 3 for Vince Carter, 1 for Kenyon Martin, 1 for Stephon Marbury)

Miami Heat:  8 appearances (3 for Dwyane Wade, 3 for Shaquille O’Neal, 1 for Alonzo Mourning, 1 for Anthony Mason)

Seattle SuperSonics:  8 appearances (4 for Ray Allen, 3 for Gary Payton, 1 for Rashard Lewis)

Sacramento Kings:  7 appearances (3 for Peja Stojakovic, 2 for Chris Webber, 1 for Brad Miller, 1 for Vlade Divac)

Indiana Pacers:  7 appearances (5 for Jermaine O’Neal, 1 for Ron Artest, 1 for Brad Miller)

Philadelphia 76ers:  7 appearances (6 for Allen Iverson, 1 for Dikembe Mutombo)

-Boston Celtics: 7 appearances (5 for Paul Pierce, 2 for Antoine Walker)

Washington Wizards:  7 appearances (3 for Gilbert Arenas, 2 for Michael Jordan, 1 for Caron Butler, 1 for Antawn Jamison)

Toronto Raptors: 6 appearances (3 for Vince Carter, 2 for Chris Bosh, 1 for Antonio Davis)

Orlando Magic:  6 appearances (4 for Tracy McGrady, 1 for Dwight Howard, 1 for Grant Hill)

Cleveland Cavaliers:  5 appearances (3 for LeBron James, 2 for Zydrunas Ilgauskas)

Milwaukee Bucks:  4 appearances (2 for Ray Allen, 1 for Glenn Robinson, 1 for Michael Redd)

New Orleans/Charlotte Hornets:  4 appearances (2 for Baron Davis, 1 for Jamaal Mashburn, 1 for Jamal Magloire)

Atlanta Hawks:  3 appearances (1 for Joe Johnson, 1 for Shareef Abdur-Rahim, 1 for Dikembe Mutombo)

Utah Jazz:  3 appearances (1 for Memo Okur, 1 for Andrei Kirilenko, 1 for Karl Malone)

New York Knicks: 2 appearances (1 for Latrell Sprewell, 1 for Allan Houston)

Los Angeles Clippers:  2 appearances (2 for Elton Brand)

Denver Nuggets: 2 appearances (1 for Carmelo Anthony, 1 for Antonio McDyess)
Portland Trailblazers:  1 appearance (1 for Rasheed Wallace)

Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies:  1 appearance (1 for Pau Gasol)

Golden State Warriors:  0 appearances

Chicago Bulls:  0 appearances

Charlotte Bobcats:  0 appearances 

For this survey, we only counted players who actually played in the All-Star games.  There are tons of guys who were selected but didn’t play because of injury but I thought limiting to guys who actually did play limited the numbers a bit.  Based upon what we have, it seems pretty clear that to be an All-Star you need to be a start, a very good player on a great/surprise team, or a center in the East.  For the most part, however, the great teams got the most appearances. 

The only outlier are the Rockets, who had plenty of popular players (Yao, T-Mac, and Francis), which carried them even when they weren’t that great.  I was also surprised that the Bulls drew no stars, considering that they’ve been pretty good for a few years.  But their equal opportunity offense and slow starts probably submarined that possibility.  Ironically, the most All-Star worthy player they had was Elton Brand from the truly miserable early 2000 teams. 

The worst/most unlikely All-Stars?  There aren’t too many but Wally Szczerbiak’s selection makes less sense in retrospect now than it did back in 2001-02 (18.7 ppg, .508 FG%, 4.8 rpg, 3.1 apg).  There is also brigade of decent centers who racked up appearances (Brad Miller, Antonio Davis, Magloire, and Okur).  How good were they?  Well here are there ultimate stats from their All-Star years: 

-Brad Miller (2002-03): 31.1 mpg, 13.1 ppg, .493 FG%, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 19.3 PER

-Brad Miller (2003-04): 36.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg, .510 FG%, 10.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 19.4 PER

-Antonio Davis (2000-01): 35.0 mpg, 13.7 ppg, .433 FG%, 10.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 16.5 PER

-Jamaal Magloire (2003-04): 33.9 mpg, 13.6 ppg, .473 FG%, 10.3 rpg, 1.0 apg, 16.5 PER

-Memo Okur (2006-07): 33.3 mpg, 17.6 ppg, .462 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 18.1 PER 

Ilgauskas and Ben Wallace might fall into this category but I always perceived them to be a bit better (but not a ton) than the centers mentioned above.  Of this group, I think Davis was probably the most surprising.  He was great defender but he could no longer score in the low post and that killed his offensive efficiency.  Magloire was a fairly effective center too (though he really lost it quick) and actually ended up playing very well in his lone All-Star appearance. 

The other surprise All-Star was Anthony Mason, who was a solid forward, but never considered a star.  His one season in Miami, Mason had a great

season (16.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.1 apg).  Ironically, this wasn’t Mason’s best season, which actually was 1996-97, his first with the Hornets.  Mason received particular credit for 2000-01 because the Heat went 50-32, despite the fact that Alonzo Mourning was stricken with kidney ailments.  Thus, Mase got a big share of the credit.  Mason was 34 at the time and it was a great free agent drive.  The Bucks gave him a three-year $15 million deal that was an absolute disaster.  His stats declined quickly and he was always a bit of a pain to coach in the best of times.  In the end, the Bucks ended up eating the third year of his contract and starting over. 

Lastly, Grant Hill’s 2004-05 All-Star appearance was a bit surprising considering that he had played 47 games the previous four years.  2004-05 was his only starrish season with Orlando (19.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg).  You can’t say he didn’t deserve to be an All-Star in 2004-05 but it was not they typical Hill star season you may remember from his Piston days.

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