Hoops Analyst

In the NBA, November is very very early.  A months worth of games is just too soon to make any definitive conclusions.  Still, we know of the general surprise stories so far that are worth watching.  Just for fun, we’re going to go through each team quickly by division.  Here’s a review of some stories you might’ve noticed (or might’ve missed) from the Atlantic Division:

–Boston Celtics: Boston has looked like as a good team as there is in the NBA.  Many have noted that Rajon Rondo has taken his play to the next level based upon his gaudy assists stats but his PER is actually pretty much in line with last year’s (19.2).  Rondo’s assist numbers have been ridiculously high so far (14.2 apg) but he’s given back points, free throws attempts, shot creation from last year.  The net result makes Rondo’s aggregate stats look flat in terms of overall offensive value from last year.  In fact, the real biggest stat gainer for Boston is Shaquille O’Neal, who has been highly productive in his 23 mpg (22.8 PER), his best numbers since 2005-06 in Miami.  Another issue of note is that Doc Rivers, who had usually been very careful in minutes with the Big Three in the past, has ridden them quite a bit so far.  Check the minutes per game of the Big Three (plus Rondo) this year compared to the past few years:

Season	K. Garnett	R. Allen	P. Pierce	R. Rondo
2007-08	32.8	35.9	35.9	29.9
2008-09	31.1	36.4	37.5	33.0
2009-10	29.9	35.2	34.0	36.6
2010-11	33.0	38.0	36.3	39.2

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1.    What’s In A Start?: It’s still way too early to make grand or meaningful conclusions about the 2010-11 season.  The teams that have gotten the most notice (besides the Heat) are the ones that have come out of the gate very hot.  The Lakers, not so surprisingly, are 6-0.  More surprisingly, the Hornets and Hawks are also 6-0.  But small sample sizes can do funny things.  For example, the Nest are 2-4 but have a horrible -7.2 point differential, in large part because they have played the Heat or Magic in half of their games.  As for the Heat, they have the best point differential in the East (+13.1), despite the fact that they have only the fourth best record in conference.

So, we know the records at this point are mostly noise.  Still, can we expect great thing from the Hornets and Hawks?  I tend to think the nice run is just a fluke start.  Both are legit playoff teams but this start likely does not augur title contention.  In fact, the Hawks also started out the 1997-98 season 11-0, with a similar good but not great team (Mookie Blaylock, Steve Smith, Christian Laettner, and Dikembe Mutombo).  Atlanta remained pretty good the rest of the way (39-32) to finish 50-32 but was bounced in the first round by a decent Hornets team.

There is just too much data out there (for me at least) to assess hot starts generally but I thought we could look at the title teams of each year to see how they started out the first month to see what trends, if any, we see.  Here’s a look at all title teams since 1979-80 and there records before December 1 of that season:

1979-80 Lakers, 16-9 (overall 60-22)

1980-81 Celtics, 15-7 (overall 62-20)

1981-82 Lakers, 12-5 (overall 57-25)

1982-83 76ers, 13-3 (overall 65-17)

1983-84 Celtics, 12-5 (overall 62-20)

1984-85 Lakers, 12-6 (overall 62-20)

1985-86 Celtics, 15-2 (overall 67-15)

1986-87 Lakers, 12-2 (overall 65-17)

1987-88 Lakers, 9-2 (overall 62-20)

1988-89 Pistons, 11-3 (overall 63-19)

1989-90 Pistons, 9-5 (overall 59-23)

1990-91 Bulls, 9-6 (overall 61-21)

1991-92 Bulls, 13-2 (overall 67-15)

1992-93 Bulls, 9-3 (overall 57-25)

1993-94 Rockets, 14-0 (overall 58-24)

1994-95 Rockets, 10-3 (overall 47-35)

1995-96 Bulls, 12-2 (overall 72-20)

1996-97 Bulls, 15-1 (overall 69-13)

1997-98 Bulls, 9-7 (overall 62-20)

1998-99 Spurs, 6-8 (overall 37-13)(note this was the strike season that started in February and so the record is limited to that month)

1999-00 Lakers, 11-4 (overall 67-15)

2000-01 Lakers, 11-5 (overall 56-26)

2001-02 Lakers, 14-1 (overall 58-24)

2002-03 Spurs, 11-7 (overall 60-22)

2003-04 Pistons, 12-6 (overall 54-28)

2004-05 Spurs, 12-3 (overall 59-23)

2005-06 Heat, 9-6 (overall 52-30)

2006-07 Spurs, 11-5 (overall 58-24)

2007-08 Celtics, 13-2 (overall 66-16)

2008-09 Lakers, 14-1 (overall 65-17)

2009-10 Lakers, 13-3 (overall 57-25)

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1.    The Heat…Way Too Early: Will Chris Bosh turn into P.J. Brown?  Can LeBron James continue to score 30 a game on a star studded team?  Regardless of stats of the stars, will the Heat win it all?  I’m just like everyone else.  I’m fascinated to see how the Heat blend three big stars and how they fit into their roles.  Still, it is quite amazing to see how much has been written about the Heat so far and, frankly, drawing any serious conclusions from the first few games is ridiculous.  I know every editor in the basketball world has directed his or her writers to jump on this story but let’s just wait a little.  The sample size is just too small to get anything form a loss to the Celtics or a win against the Magic.

2.    Number One Debuts: Another story of the first weeks was John Wall’s brutal shooting debut.  As many predicted, Wall’s shooting will probably be spotty all year.  The more interesting question is how Wall’s debut compares with that of other first picks.  Fortunately, the great Basketball-Reference.com site has game logs back to the 1986-87 season.  So, we went back the last 24 years to see how Wall’s first game compared with that of other number ones, ranked by game scores:

Player	Year	MP	FGs	FGA	3s	3A	FTs	FTA	Rebs	Asts	Stls	Blk	Tos	PF	Pts	GmSc
L. James	2003-04	42	12	20	0	2	1	3	6	9	4	0	2	3	25	24.7
D. Robinson	1989-90	34	6	11	0	0	11	14	17	1	1	3	3	5	23	23.2
A. Iverson	1996-97	37	12	19	2	4	4	6	2	6	1	0	3	5	30	22.3
B. Griffin	2010-11	38	8	14	0	0	4	6	14	4	1	0	2	4	20	20.6
C. Webber	1993-94	34	5	12	0	0	5	6	7	3	3	2	1	3	15	15.0
A. Bogut	2005-06	37	6	9	0	0	1	1	9	1	0	3	1	4	13	13.6
D. Howard	2004-05	38	6	11	0	0	0	6	10	2	3	4	1	3	12	13.5
T. Duncan	1997-98	35	6	9	0	0	3	5	10	2	0	2	4	2	15	11.7
E. Brand	1999-00	35	3	11	0	0	8	10	8	1	1	2	2	2	14	11.4
D. Rose	2008-09	32	3	9	0	0	5	7	4	9	3	0	4	2	11	11.2
L. Johnson	1991-92	26	4	8	0	0	6	6	3	2	0	2	1	4	14	11.1
J. Smith	1995-96	26	5	12	0	0	4	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	14	10.6
D. Coleman	1990-91	25	5	13	0	0	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	11	10.4
M. Olowokandi	1998-99	22	5	9	0	0	4	5	6	0	0	1	2	4	14	9.4
S. O’Neal	1992-93	32	4	8	0	0	4	7	18	2	1	3	8	6	12	8.3
J. Wall	2010-11	35	6	19	0	0	2	3	1	9	3	0	3	3	14	8.1
D. Manning	1988-89	27	6	10	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	1	2	1	12	7.5
B. Daugherty	1986-87	37	3	8	0	0	2	3	13	6	0	0	3	5	8	6.3
K. Martin	2000-01	30	4	16	0	0	2	2	7	2	1	1	0	6	10	3.6
P. Ellison	1989-90	13	2	4	0	0	2	3	2	1	0	1	1	4	6	3.4
K. Brown	2001-02	12	1	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	3	1	2	2	1.8
A. Bargnani	2006-07	9	1	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	3	2	0.5
G. Robinson	1994-95	13	3	5	0	0	2	4	4	0	0	0	5	3	8	0.3
G. Oden	2008-09	13	0	4	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	1	2	2	0	-3.0
Y. Ming	2002-03	11	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3.3

While the some of the best players were had the best debuts, there isn’t necessarily a ton of correlation between a debut game and a career quality going forward outside of the best of the best.  Tim Duncan and Shaq weren’t great and Yao was the worst rookie on the list.  In the grand scheme of things, Wall’s debut was slightly below average but isn’t an indicator of anything going forward.  Griffin’s great start, however, is a nice thing, as all the other rookies with game scores over 20 on the list have been Hall of Fame-level players.  Griffin might not end up in the Hall but his start certainly isn’t a bad thing.

Another interesting side note is that most of the rookies were very reluctant to shoot the three.  Only AI, LeBron, and Bargnani even attempted a three (and only Iverson actually made one).  One reason might be because the list is filled with power forwards and centers but Glenn Robinson, Manning, Coleman, LJ, Rose, and even Webber ended up taking plenty of threes later in their careers.  Clearly, the rooks are expected not to shoot too much.