We didn’t get an official prediction for this year’s Finals out publicly, but I was pretty much on board with the conventional wisdom that Oklahoma City was a prohibitive favorite over the Pacers. I expected OKC’s defense to match up well against Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. I also expected that the Pacers’ lack of a physically dominating center would allow Chet Holmgren to be quite effective. In other words, I thought this would be yet another 4-1 win for the favored team in the Finals.
Obviously, things have not worked out that way. The Pacers have been great and OKC has had to work very hard to initiate its offense. Last night’s Game 4 slugfest went the Thunder’s way, but it took Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having to score a few very difficult shots down the stretch. OKC was able to win the game, even though they shot a woeful 3-17 from three-point land. Going forward, I rate the Thunder as favorites but it is clear that this won’t be easy and that we will likely have our first Game 7 in an NBA Finals since 2016.
For the moment, OKC’s winning without making many three inspired me to look back at a little minutia on the NBA Finals and three-point shooting. We all know how the long-distance shot has exploded but let’s go year-by-year and see how it was utilized in the Finals specifically and see what the date tells us:
| Year | Team | 3s | 3FGAs | 3% | Result |
| 1979-80 | Lakers | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | Won Finals |
| 1979-80 | 76ers | 1 | 16 | 0.063 | Lost Finals |
| 1980-81 | Celtics | 3 | 17 | 0.176 | Won Finals |
| 1980-81 | Rockets | 3 | 11 | 0.273 | Lost Finals |
| 1981-82 | Lakers | 1 | 9 | 0.111 | Won Finals |
| 1981-82 | 76ers | 4 | 14 | 0.286 | Lost Finals |
| 1982-83 | 76ers | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | Won Finals |
| 1982-83 | Lakers | 3 | 15 | 0.200 | Lost Finals |
| 1983-84 | Celtics | 9 | 24 | 0.375 | Won Finals |
| 1983-84 | Lakers | 6 | 18 | 0.333 | Lost Finals |
| 1984-85 | Lakers | 8 | 23 | 0.348 | Won Finals |
| 1984-85 | Celtics | 13 | 34 | 0.382 | Lost Finals |
| 1985-86 | Celtics | 12 | 34 | 0.353 | Won Finals |
| 1985-86 | Rockets | 5 | 17 | 0.294 | Lost Finals |
| 1986-87 | Lakers | 16 | 41 | 0.390 | Won Finals |
| 1986-87 | Celtics | 14 | 42 | 0.333 | Lost Finals |
| 1987-88 | Lakers | 10 | 40 | 0.250 | Won Finals |
| 1987-88 | Pistons | 9 | 31 | 0.290 | Lost Finals |
| 1988-89 | Pistons | 5 | 20 | 0.250 | Won Finals |
| 1988-89 | Lakers | 13 | 43 | 0.302 | Lost Finals |
| 1989-90 | Pistons | 25 | 56 | 0.446 | Won Finals |
| 1989-90 | Blazers | 11 | 47 | 0.234 | Lost Finals |
| 1990-91 | Bulls | 5 | 21 | 0.238 | Won Finals |
| 1990-91 | Lakers | 13 | 46 | 0.283 | Lost Finals |
| 1991-92 | Bulls | 25 | 54 | 0.463 | Won Finals |
| 1991-92 | Blazers | 10 | 52 | 0.192 | Lost Finals |
| 1992-93 | Bulls | 32 | 69 | 0.464 | Won Finals |
| 1992-93 | Suns | 27 | 62 | 0.435 | Lost Finals |
| 1993-94 | Rockets | 37 | 121 | 0.306 | Won Finals |
| 1993-94 | Knicks | 36 | 105 | 0.343 | Lost Finals |
| 1994-95 | Rockets | 37 | 92 | 0.402 | Won Finals |
| 1994-95 | Magic | 41 | 118 | 0.348 | Lost Finals |
| 1995-96 | Bulls | 36 | 137 | 0.263 | Won Finals |
| 1995-96 | Sonics | 32 | 102 | 0.314 | Lost Finals |
| 1996-97 | Bulls | 39 | 112 | 0.348 | Won Finals |
| 1996-97 | Jazz | 35 | 85 | 0.412 | Lost Finals |
| 1997-98 | Bulls | 26 | 88 | 0.295 | Won Finals |
| 1997-98 | Jazz | 13 | 60 | 0.217 | Lost Finals |
| 1998-99 | Spurs | 21 | 62 | 0.339 | Won Finals |
| 1998-99 | Knicks | 11 | 54 | 0.204 | Lost Finals |
| 1999-00 | Lakers | 35 | 92 | 0.380 | Won Finals |
| 1999-00 | Pacers | 49 | 116 | 0.422 | Lost Finals |
| 2000-01 | Lakers | 36 | 75 | 0.480 | Won Finals |
| 2000-01 | 76ers | 17 | 59 | 0.288 | Lost Finals |
| 2001-02 | Lakers | 29 | 61 | 0.475 | Won Finals |
| 2001-02 | Nets | 18 | 59 | 0.305 | Lost Finals |
| 2002-03 | Spurs | 24 | 75 | 0.320 | Won Finals |
| 2002-03 | Nets | 23 | 83 | 0.277 | Lost Finals |
| 2003-04 | Pistons | 21 | 66 | 0.318 | Won Finals |
| 2003-04 | Lakers | 22 | 89 | 0.247 | Lost Finals |
| 2004-05 | Spurs | 51 | 128 | 0.398 | Won Finals |
| 2004-05 | Pistons | 18 | 75 | 0.240 | Lost Finals |
| 2005-06 | Heat | 32 | 105 | 0.305 | Won Finals |
| 2005-06 | Mavs | 33 | 116 | 0.284 | Lost Finals |
| 2006-07 | Spurs | 29 | 78 | 0.372 | Won Finals |
| 2006-07 | Cavs | 22 | 75 | 0.293 | Lost Finals |
| 2007-08 | Celtics | 52 | 121 | 0.430 | Won Finals |
| 2007-08 | Lakers | 43 | 124 | 0.347 | Lost Finals |
| 2008-09 | Lakers | 32 | 86 | 0.372 | Won Finals |
| 2008-09 | Magic | 38 | 115 | 0.330 | Lost Finals |
| 2009-10 | Lakers | 35 | 125 | 0.280 | Won Finals |
| 2009-10 | Celtics | 33 | 107 | 0.308 | Lost Finals |
| 2010-11 | Mavs | 51 | 124 | 0.411 | Won Finals |
| 2010-11 | Heat | 45 | 130 | 0.346 | Lost Finals |
| 2011-12 | Heat | 42 | 98 | 0.429 | Won Finals |
| 2011-12 | Thunder | 32 | 105 | 0.305 | Lost Finals |
| 2012-13 | Heat | 64 | 148 | 0.432 | Won Finals |
| 2012-13 | Spurs | 61 | 150 | 0.407 | Lost Finals |
| 2013-14 | Spurs | 55 | 118 | 0.466 | Won Finals |
| 2013-14 | Heat | 46 | 116 | 0.397 | Lost Finals |
| 2014-15 | Warriors | 67 | 186 | 0.360 | Won Finals |
| 2014-15 | Cavs | 49 | 167 | 0.293 | Lost Finals |
| 2015-16 | Cavs | 56 | 170 | 0.329 | Won Finals |
| 2015-16 | Warriors | 94 | 252 | 0.373 | Lost Finals |
| 2016-17 | Warriors | 71 | 186 | 0.382 | Won Finals |
| 2016-17 | Cavs | 66 | 173 | 0.382 | Lost Finals |
| 2017-18 | Warriors | 51 | 136 | 0.375 | Won Finals |
| 2017-18 | Cavs | 36 | 122 | 0.295 | Lost Finals |
| 2018-19 | Raptors | 72 | 206 | 0.350 | Won Finals |
| 2018-19 | Warriors | 76 | 201 | 0.378 | Lost Finals |
| 2019-20 | Lakers | 84 | 239 | 0.351 | Won Finals |
| 2019-20 | Heat | 69 | 189 | 0.365 | Lost Finals |
| 2020-21 | Bucks | 66 | 187 | 0.353 | Won Finals |
| 2020-21 | Suns | 66 | 172 | 0.384 | Lost Finals |
| 2021-22 | Warriors | 92 | 251 | 0.367 | Won Finals |
| 2021-22 | Celtics | 86 | 211 | 0.408 | Lost Finals |
| 2022-23 | Nuggets | 43 | 129 | 0.333 | Won Finals |
| 2022-23 | Heat | 58 | 169 | 0.343 | Lost Finals |
| 2023-24 | Celtics | 70 | 207 | 0.338 | Won Finals |
| 2023-24 | Mavs | 48 | 152 | 0.316 | Lost Finals |
-As expected, the three-pointer was basically unused in the Finals in the early 1980s, except by a few specialists. In case you are wondering, the first (and lone) three-pointer made in the 1979-80 NBA Finals was by Julius Erving. By the mid-1980s, we started to see players averaging multiple threes per game, namely Larry Bird, Michael Cooper, and Danny Ainge.
-The early 1990s Blazers were the first team to be really hurt by the discrepancy in threes. Though the Adelman Blazers usually used the three pretty well in the regular season, they were terrible in both the 1989-90 and the 1991-92 Finals. This was compounded by the fact that their opponents shot well and frequently from three (Isiah Thomas was an amazing 11-15 in 1989-90 and Michael Jordan was 12-28 in 1991-92). Terry Porter was 10-38 over those two series and Clyde Drexler was 5-32. Drexler might be among the worst Finals three-point shooter ever (he went 2-13 in 1994-95, for a career total of 7-45).
-The first prolific chucker was Dan Majerle, who took 39 threes against the Bulls in 1992-93. The rate of threes accelerated greatly in 1993-94 when Derek Harper and Vernon Maxwell shot around the same number and John Starks took 50 threes (making only 16). Houston and New York both took over 100 threes each. The Rockets were an execrable .308% from three but still won the series.
-Throughout the late 1990s to early 2000s, the three-pointer did not seem to make much of a difference in the Finals, with a few limited exceptions. The 1997-98 Jazz and 1998-99 Knicks barely made any threes, even by the standards of the time. The 2000-01 76ers and the 2001-02 Nets were also badly outshot from three but their trouble scoring was at every level, not just from three.
-Besides the early 1990s Blazers, the first team to clearly have lost the Finals due to three-point deficiency were the 2004-05 Pistons. They lost a tight seven-game series but were -33 from three. The Spurs shot a Finals record 128 threes for the series.
-From there, three-pointers remained in a steady range, with the better shooting team from three usually winning the series. The next inflection point came in the epic 2012-13 Finals, where both teams set records from three (Miami was 64-148 and the Spurs were 61-150).
-Then came the Steph Curry Warriors, who set a new record in 2014-15 (67-186) and the Cavs, trying to stay competitive, shot 49-167. The Warriors set the current record in attempts in 2015-16 (94-252), which was nearly tied by the Warriors in 2021-22 (92-251). Since then, we’ve had a few prolific three-point shooting teams (2019-20 Lakers, 2023-24 Celtics) but no one has quite approached the Warriors and a few teams have won without a ton of three-point shooting (Milwaukee 2020-21 and Denver 2022-23).
-Some assorted career Finals three-point shooters:
Kobe Bryant: 48-153 .314%
LeBron James: 101-287 .352%
Larry Bird: 19-45 .422%
Stephen Curry: 152-385 .395%
Klay Thompson: 106-266 .399%
Kevin Durant: 43-96 .448%
Michael Jordan: 42-114 .368%
Michael Cooper: 35-92 .380%
Kyrie Irving: 38-105 .362%