After a nice start to the season, the Bulls have regressed back to the .500ish play-in team that they have been basically the entire decade so far. Coach Billy Donovan has overseen this entire run of mediocrity. For the past five years, the Bulls have made a single playoff appearance and won only one playoff game.
Donovan is a perfectly fine coach working with a roster designed to be underwhelming. Still, it is wild to think that in this modern NBA, where coaches rarely last two years, that Donovan could last so long with so little playoff success. This is particularly true for the Bulls, who famously abruptly canned Doug Collins and Tom Thibodeau despite their successes.
I’m less interested in the Bulls management’s acceptance of mediocrity as I am in how rare it is for an NBA coach to last more four years on a team, without any playoff series victories. Usually, three years without progress is enough to get ownership to hit the reset button but how often does a coach last more than four years? And what did the coaches do with this surprising patience? Below is an examination of coaches, since 1983-84 (the first year that the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams), who did not win a playoff series in their first four years on the job, yet came back for a fifth year (note I did not include coaches with long tenures that included big playoff droughts like Rick Carlisle in Dallas). Let’s dive in and see what it tells us:
Mike Woodson, Atlanta 2004-05 to 2007-08: Woodson was a first-time head coach, and he was taking over a directionless Hawks franchise that he been middling to poor. Atlanta tore the roster down to the studs and Woodson’s debut 2004-05 squad was an awful 13-69. While the Hawks did not win a series over the next four years, Woodson made steady progress each season, winning 13, 26, 30, and then 37 games. In his fourth season, 2007-08, the Hawks did make the playoffs and even took the top seeded Celtics to a seventh game.
Despite not winning a series over his first four years, Woodson’s record is pretty much the exact resume a coach would need to stay employed without winning a playoff series for four years. Woodson lasted two more seasons and continued to improve (47 and then 53 wins) and the Hawks finally won first round series but were swept in the second round both years. After the second sweep, Woodson was canned in 2010.
Steve Clifford, Charlotte 2013-14 to 2017-18: While four years without a playoff series win might seem suboptimal to most franchises, Clifford’s first tenure in Charlotte is clearly the best run the team has had since returning to town in 2004-05. The Clifford Hornets made the playoffs twice and the 2015-16 Hornets were legitimately pretty good. They went 48-34 (9th on offense and 8th on defense) before losing a seven-game series to the post-LeBron & Bosh Miami Heat. The Hornets missed the playoffs the next two seasons and GM Mitch Kupchak decided to fire Clifford. The Hornets still have not made the playoffs since 2016.
Mike Fratello, Cleveland 1993-94 to 1998-99: Unlike most other coaches on this list, Fratello had some regular season success. The Cavs won 47 games three times and were over .500 each of his first five seasons. Fratello was brought in to try to contend for a title with the Mark Price/Brad Daugherty team that couldn’t get past Jordan. Alas, the core of the team crumbled due to age (Larry Nance was too old) and injury (Daugherty’s back forced him into premature retirement). Fratello had to rejigger the lineup with retreads who played hard on defense and a slow-paced style of offense that was painful to watch, even by 1990s NBA standards.
In January 1995, Phil Taylor of Sports Illustrated described the Fratello Cavs thusly: “The Cavaliers run a methodical offense that reduces the pace of their games to…roughly…this…speed. Some might call that a slow-down game, but coach Mike Fratello prefers to think of it as ‘tempo management.’ And the Cavaliers refer not to fast breaks but to ‘selective opportunities,’ which is another way of saying they avoid running the way Superman avoids kryptonite.”
More specifically, the players didn’t love the system but accepted that it worked: “No one would be more receptive to a different approach than [Mark] Price, who longs for the days when he would push the ball upcourt with Nance and Wilkins on the wings and Daugherty trailing. ‘At times I feel Mike’s got the reins, and when I get the urge to push it up the court, he gives them a yank…but the reason this style is working is that everyone understands it’s the style that gives us the best chance of winning.’”
Here are the Fratello Cavs year-by-year team rankings:
1993-94: 47-35, 6th in offense, 11th in defense, 26th in pace (out of 27 teams)
1994-95: 43-39, 22nd in offense, 3rd in defense, 27th in pace (out of 27 teams)
1995-96: 47-35, 10th in offense, 11th in defense, 29th in pace (out of 29 teams)
1996-97: 42-40, 23rd in offense, 5th in defense, 29th in pace (out of 29 teams)
The Cavs were quite respectable, but the style did not translate at all in the playoffs. They went 1-9 against their playoff opponents (the 1993-94 Bulls without MJ, and the 1994-95 and 1995-96 Ewing Knicks). After missing the playoffs in 1996-97, the Cavs made a big trade to bring in Shawn Kemp and a bunch of young athletes with a somewhat different formula on paper:
1997-98: 47-35, 24th on offense, 1st on defense, 17th in pace (out of 29 teams)
Yet again, though, the Cavs were dispatched easily in the playoffs (3-1) by the Pacers. The 1998 long lockout happened and Kemp was never the same player afterwards. The Cavs went 22-28 (24th on offense, 12th on defense, 25th in pace) in 1998-99 and Fratello was fired. This June 1999 Hartford Courant article reporting his firing took a dig at his offense: “The worst sin in pro sports is to lose. The second worst sin is to be boring. Mike Fratello’s Cavaliers did both, emphasis on the latter. Which is why they are no longer Fratello’s Cavaliers.”
Dwane Casey, Detroit 2018-19 to 2022-23: Casey was brought in to try to make the Blake Griffin-Andre Drummond core competitive. They did go 41-41 in 2018-19 but Griffin was injured and not thrilled to be on the team. Casey somehow lasted four more seasons, despite averaging 20 wins per season over that time. The team clearly had a lot of respect for Casey because he wasn’t even technically fired, he resigned as coach and stayed in the front office. The Pistons have finally broken out this season, but they were run really poorly for about 15 years.
Scott Skiles, Milwaukee 2008-09 to 2011-12: Like the Pistons, the Bucks were a non-descript team with low upside. Skiles’ hard ass methods had turned around the Bulls, but he wore out his welcome. In Milwaukee, he didn’t have a ton of talent, but the team was competitive and peaked at 46-36 in 2009-10 (2nd in the NBA in defense) with a hodge podge of decent players featuring Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Carlos Delfino, and a really old Kurt Thomas. They lost to Woodson’s Hawks in the first round that year and never made it back to the playoffs until the Giannis Years.
Flip Saunders, Minnesota 1996-97 to 2002-03: Flip was known for helping to develop a young Kevin Garnett and leading the Wolves out of their terrible expansion years. In 1996-97, Saunders took Minnesota to the playoffs for the first time and he followed that up with six more appearances. The problem was they kept running into better teams in the deep West.
Here are the year-by-year playoff matchups during that stretch:
1996-97: Wolves were 40-42, -1.82 SRS and played Houston, 57-25, 3.85 SRS (Houston won 3-0)
1997-98: Wolves were 45-37, 0.17 SRS and played Seattle, 61-21, 6.33 SRS (Seattle won 3-2)
1998-99: Wolves were 25-25, -0.17 SRS and played San Antonio, 37-13, 7.12 SRS (San Antonio won 3-1)
1999-00: 50-32, 2.67 SRS and played Portland, 59-23, 6.36 SRS (Portland won 3-1)
2000-01: 47-35, 1.81 SRS and played San Antonio, 58-24, 7.92 SRS (San Antonio won 3-1)
2001-02: 50-32, 3.58 SRS and played Dallas, 57-27, 4.41 SRS (Dallas won 3-0)
2002-03: 51-31, 2.46 SRS and played L.A. Lakers, 50-32, 2.71 SRS (Lakers won 4-2)
Minnesota was slowly improving over that seven-year period, so it made some sense to keep Saunders on the job. The lack of playoff success also wasn’t surprising. On paper, they were decisively the lower seed in every playoff matchup except 2002-03, and that was a Kobe-Shaq Laker squad that was clearly better than their stats (they were 45-22 with Shaq and 5-10 without him).
The Wolves finally busted out in 2003-04, with Minnesota going 58-24 and making the Conference Finals. They ran into Kobe and Shaq again and lost 4-2 (yes, Sam Cassell’s injury may have changed the outcome).
Naturally, the Wolves regressed in 2004-05 and Saunders was fired after a 25-26 start where Minny had lost seven of their last eight games. GM Kevin McHale, who was Saunders’ close friend, told the media that “[w]e talked this morning, and it was very, very hard. We’ve known each other for a long time, but our last 32 games we’re 12-20, and just not playing at a level that’s acceptable, energy-wise.”
McHale took over and the team did turn around (they went 19-12) but still missed the playoffs. McHale then made a bunch of questionable moves and the Wolves returned to futility until recently.
Willie Green, New Orleans 2021-22 to 2025-26: Ironically, I learned while writing this article that Green was just fired after a 2-10 start. Let’s do a quick rundown of Green’s tenure. He had some real moments that looked like the team was going to bust out:
-In December 2022, they were 18-8 but the team was beset with injuries (Zion went down for the year in early January 2023) and they limped to a 24-32 finish.
-In 2023-24, Zion was mostly healthy, and the team was pretty good, peaking at 44-27. They had a good shot of a top six seed but fell into the play-in due to a 5-6 record to end the season. They ended up with the seven seed and a home play-in game versus the Lakers. Zion was dominating that gamr until he pulled his hamstring late, which nixed a furious comeback.
It was a tough run that was ultimately doomed by Zion’s inability to stay healthy. For posterity, here are the Pelicans’ records with and without Zion during Green’s tenure:
2021-22: 36-46 overall (Zion missed the whole season)
2022-23: 42-40 overall (17-12 with Zion, 25-28 without Zion)
2023-24: 49-33 overall (42-28 with Zion, 7-5 without Zion)
2024-25: 21-61 overall (10-20 with Zion, 11-41 without Zion)
2025-26: 2-10 overall (0-5 with Zion, 2-5 without Zion)
Total: 150-190 overall (69-65 with Zion, 45-84 without Zion)
It seems that Zion has not quite put up the same numbers as he did during his younger days. I know he’s only 25 but his shots at the rim have gone straight down as has his efficiency. Management has some big decisions to make here.
Doc Rivers, Orlando 1999-00 to 2003-04: Remember when Doc was the hip and young innovative coach? Rivers had a high-paced (relative to era) team built around Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill. T-Mac was basically unstoppable, but Hill never recovered from his ankle injury and the front court was manned by the likes of Pat Burke, Andrew DeClercq, and an old and puffy Shawn Kemp.
The result was that the Magic won between 41 and 44 games in each of Rivers’ first four seasons. They lost in the first round three times, though they nearly upset the top seeded Pistons in 2002-03. Orlando jumped out to a 3-1 lead but Detroit rallied to win the series in seven.
Going into 2003-04, Orlando was optimistic about taking that next step with McGrady as the cornerstone. In order to beef up the star power, they gave Juwan Howard a five-year deal and Rivers envisioned him as that second piece needed to contend: “I needed a bona fide second scorer. If you look at the Detroit series, if Tracy is not playing great, then we struggle because we didn’t have a lot of other places to turn and now we have another place to turn in Juwan.” Well, Howard did score 17 ppg but Orlando’s defense totally cratered. They started out 1-10 and Rivers was fired.
Jamahl Mosley, Orlando 2021-22 to 2024-25: Mosely probably needs to win a series this year to keep his job. Here are his offense and defense ratings by year:
2021-22: 22-60, -7.67 SRS, 30th on offense, 17th on defense
2022-23: 34-48, -2.39 SRS, 26th on offense, 16th on defense
2023-24: 47-35, 1.48 SRS, 22nd on offense, 2nd on defense
2024-25: 41-41, -0.70 SRS, 27th on offense, 2nd on defense
2025-26: 7-6, 2.88 SRS, 20th on offense, 8th on defense
If no adjustments are made, Orlando still has a chance to win a series and save Mosley’s job. On the other hand, the distinct lack of a traditional point guard is glaring. By the eye test, when you watch their halfcourt offense they struggle to generate easy shots for teammates. This struggle is reflected in their assist totals, which are always at or near the bottom of the NBA. It’s hard to fix this during the season but maybe they can take a flier on Chris Paul if he isn’t totally cooked.
Brett Brown, Philadelphia 2013-14 to 2016-17: Who doesn’t have fond memories of The Process and the four years of tanking? The 76ers won 19, 18 and 10 games from 2013-14 to 2015-16. Brown was in no danger of being fired but had to endure the losing. In fact, on December 11, 2015, with the 76ers sporting a 1-22 record, Brown was given an extension.
ESPN reported the extension reasoning at the time: “Brown never lost, even during one of the worst eras of basketball in NBA history, was his faith that the franchise could become a winner on his watch. Impressed by Brown’s patience, leadership and resiliency, Philadelphia will give Brown more time to make that happen. With his original four-year deal set to expire after next season, the Sixers rewarded Brown on Friday with a multiyear contract extension.”
Brown did turn things around with Joel Embiid’s emergence. Brown’s Sixers won about 50 games per season from 2017-18 through 2019-20. Why was Brown fired at that point? It feels like a distant blur but the 2019-20 was a messy season. Philly lost Jimmy Butler in free agency and signed the ill-fitting Al Horford instead. Ben Simmons missed the playoffs with a knee injury. The result: a 4-0 sweep at the hands of Boston in the Covid Bubble and Brown was fired. He has gone back to being an assistant with the Spurs since then.
Chauncey Billups, Portland 2021-22 to 2024-25: Due to his recent indictment, it doesn’t look like Billups will get that fifth year that he was slated to start. He was initially hired to squeeze more out of Dame Lillard’s peak but circumstances changed drastically when Dame was hurt a lot and then sought a trade. His team was never good, even when they were trying to compete. Management was keeping Billups around to oversee the rebuild until things happened.
Nate McMillan, Portland 2005-06 to 2011-12: Like Woodson in Atlanta, McMillan took over a franchise at rock bottom and slowly built it up. It took four years but in 2008-09, the Blazers went 54-28 and made the playoffs. They lost a tough series to Houston. They followed that up with two more good seasons (50 and 48 wins) but also lost in the first round to higher seeds. When McMillan started out slowly in 2011-12, Portland canned him.
As a side note, McMillan was a good coach but has really struggled in the playoffs. He is 28-48 (.368%) in the playoffs and has won three series, a first rounder in 2004-05 and the two series that Atlanta improbably won in 2020-21 over New York and Philly. The only two coaches with at least 60 playoff games with a lower winning percentage are Fratello (20-42, .323%) and Terry Stotts (23-43, .343%).
Gary St. Jean, Sacramento 1992-93 to 1996-97: St. Jean was a longtime assistant for Golden State and he took the moribund Kings job in 1992. Sacramento had Mitch Richmond and not much else. Lest you think the current iteration of the Kings is depressing, back then might’ve been worse. The Kings hadn’t made the playoffs since 1985-86 and hadn’t broken .500 since 1982-83, when they were located in Kansas City. In fact, the Kings hadn’t even exceeded 29 wins since 1985-86. St. Jean slowly improved the team to 39 wins by 1994-95 but they missed the playoffs on the last day of the season. In 1995-96, the Kings again went 39-43 and finally qualified for the eight seed. They were competitive against the top seeded Sonics but lost 3-1.
In 1996-97, the Kings were, again, on the brink of the eight seed before a seven-game losing streak in March 1997. St. Jean was fired with a 28-39 record. The Kings’ attempt at a late playoff run failed, as they went 6-9 to finish 34-48. They were edged out for the eight seed by a very meh Clippers team that was 29-36 at the time of the firing and finished up 7-10 down the stretch (can you imagine how a play-in game would’ve worked that season?).
Sam Mitchell, Toronto 2004-05 to 2007-08: Mitchell took an interesting path. He got the job in 2004-05 and there was hope that he could salvage the team’s relationship with disgruntled star Vince Carter. Mitchell, however, saw himself as a disciplinarian and antagonized VC, which didn’t work as intended. According to Jalen Rose on a 2012 Grantland podcast, Carter and Mitchell got into an altercation which is summarized by CBS Sports: “Mitchell said something along the lines of how Carter was always injured and on the training table. Carter wasn’t having it. There was a little push from Carter. A little push back from Mitchell, a former player in his own right. It slowly escalated to the point of Carter picking Mitchell up — over his head — and fireman carrying him all the way to the floor.”
Carter was traded for trinkets a few weeks later and the Raps were bad for the next two years. Then, in a big surprise, Mitchell led the Raptors to a 47-35 season in 2006-07. He won Coach of the Year and the Raps won the Atlantic (though they had the point differential of a 44-win team). The team wasn’t a true great team. Chris Bosh carried the offense and they had pretty solid role guys like Anthony Parker, TJ Ford, and Juan Dixon. Toronto earned the three seed but lost 4-2 to its old nemesis Carter and the Nets in the first round. (No doubt Mitchell was pissed about this).
In 2007-08, the Raptors reversed course. They went 41-41 but had the point differential of a 49-win team. They drew an Orlando team with Dwight Howard entering his peak. The Magic were a legit 52-win team and they dominated the Raps 4-1. In 2008-09, the Raps fired Mitchell after an 8-9 start. While 8-9 doesn’t sound terrible, GM Bryan Colangelo was particularly angry about a 39-point loss against Denver. The move didn’t work. The Raptors fell apart after the firing and finished up 25-40.
Wes Unseld, Washington 1988-89 to 1993-94: Unseld was an assistant coach to Kevin Loughery, who was fired after an 8-19 start. Unseld was promoted to the head job and led Washington to a 30-25 finish. This was good enough to earn the seven seed. They also had a nice showing in the playoffs. Washington forced a deciding Game 5 before losing to the Bad Boy Pistons. Unseld coached six more years, but the Bullets would not sniff the playoffs (or a .500 season) the rest of his tenure.
Worse than the losing was the lack of organizational strategy. These teams were built around older vets like Bernard King and Michael Adams but were bereft of young talent with a few prospects. Washington desperately wanted to sneak into the playoffs and they didn’t have enough talent to achieve this rather modest goal. After the 1993-94 season, Unseld resigned to go to the front office with a 202-345 (.369%) as coach. Yes, since the early 1980s, the Bullets/Wiz have been directionless most of the time.
Summing It Up
The decision to let a coach with no playoff success continue coaching past his fourth year seems to boil down to a few categories:
- The Tear Down: Most of the above coaches came on at or near the bottom of a rebuild and management accepted incremental gains. The Tear Down coaches usually have turned out to have moderate success.
- The Pivot: In a few cases, a coach was hired to compete with a veteran team only to find that injuries or trades change organizational imperatives. This change has reset the clock on the coach’s career biological clock.
- Rudderless: In a few cases, the coach and/or management have no real long-term strategy and are essentially just futzing around year-to-year.
So which category does Donovan fall into? The categories can overlap but the Bulls are about 80% rudderless. The Bulls did mess around with older vets for years and that definitely smacks of a rudderless organization. The Bulls have pivoted to a Josh Giddey-led team, which also buys him more time and seems to fit the Fratello framework. The Bulls, however, didn’t have the regular season success that the Fratello Cavs did. At its heart, the Bulls are not serious about rebuilding and would be content to hover around .500. Donovan has a chance of breaking Unseld’s mark for most seasons without a playoff series victory. Again, Donovan is a perfectly good coach but circumstances are coalescing around more playoff futility.