This is a draft of a few good and several slightly-above-average prospects. Right now I would say that Rubio and Evans have the best shot to become great players. After that we have a few good-to-very good in Griffin, Harden, Lawson and Blair. One who would be called potentially valuable in Thabeet. There are a few projects who could pay off down the road in Derozan, Claver, Daye, Johnson, Holiday and Mullens. I think when this draft is finally analyzed it will look a lot like the 1989 draft. That draft featured several good PGs and perimeter players. The best big players in that draft were all taken later in the process. I could easily see 10-12 points and wings from this draft becoming effective players. I could also see BJ Mullens and Dejuan Blair becoming two of the best inside players taken in this draft.
This draft is about the PGs though. This will become known as the PG draft. Remember the 1983 football draft? That was the QB draft. In order the QBs went: John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Dan Marino. If ranked by careers it would go: Elway by a razor over Marino because of his super bowl wins. Those two are followed by Kelly, quite a large gap, then Eason, O’Brien and Blackledge. That means in the final analysis the QBs finished 1-6-3-4-5-2. Here’s how the PGs were drafted in the 2009 draft:
- Ricky Rubio (Elway)
- Jonny Flynn (Blackledge)
- Stephen Curry (Kelly)
- Brandon Jennings (Eason)
- Jrue Holiday (O’Brien)
- Ty Lawson (Marino)
This analogy makes sense. Rubio will become a legendary player like Elway. But he’ll have somewhat of a rough start to his career. He may even force a trade out of Minnesota, like Elway did with Baltimore. Flynn will be the Blackledge. The guy everyone fell in love with on draft day, even though he just didn’t measure up to the others. He will be the bust. Stephen Curry to the Warriors is the obvious Jim Kelly. He’ll be part of a high-scoring, entertaining offense that may or may not lose four consecutive finals. Jennings and Holiday will be Eason and O’Brien. They’ll have their moments, but are nothing more than solid journeymen. Holiday fits well as the O’Brien because both were considered projects at the time they were drafted. Lawson will be Marino. It will be apparent to everyone almost immediately that it was a mistake to pass on this guy. No I didn’t forget Tyreke Evans, he’s a SG.
I grade drafts on a curve. I give out 3 As, 6 Bs, 12 Cs, 6 Ds and 3 Fs. Basically I list the teams in order of how much they helped themselves. I try to focus strictly on what was gained and lost with the draft picks a team had. I pay little attention to financial issues even though they’re obviously in play. I also want to make a quick mention that it was ridiculous for Dejuan Blair to slide as far as he did. Every team that passed on him blew it. But instead of mentioning that in every team comment and getting repetitive, I’ll just say it here and you can trust it was factored into the grades.
A: Oklahoma City Thunder: The rumors of Sam Presti’s genius have been confirmed. Harden and the Thunder seem like a perfect match. The Thunder get an NBA-ready SG who can score, pass and defend. His diverse game should become a perfect complement to Durant. For Harden it’s a perfect spot. The pressure will be low at first, allowing him to ease in. With Westbrook and Durant in place he’ll only be asked to play his natural position of SG, allowing him to do what he does best. Mullens was extremely undervalued going into this draft. For some reason the perceived value of centers has changed around the league. They used to be ridiculously overvalued in the draft leading to such crazy top 10 picks as Steve Stipanovich, Jon Koncak, Sam Bowie, etc. all the way up to Darko Milicic. The past few years this has changed. Centers are sliding more. A good example is Aaron Gray in 2007. He’s a perfectly usable player for 5-20 minutes a night depending on the situation and never should have fallen as far as he did. But 10-20 years ago he’d have been a bust as a top 10 pick. Anyway I think Mullens got caught up in this bad center backlash and slid because of it. He actually grades out much better as a prospect than the disappointment around his college career would suggest and I believe the Thunder got a steal here. The best thing for them in all this is they own the Suns #1 next year. With Phoenix likely struggling to get to double-digit wins next year, this gives them another high-lottery pick to add to their mix. Thabo Sefolosha is probably better than anything they would have gotten at #26, so that’s a slight positive also. As for what they gave up for all these picks, Kurt Thomas and Johan Petro were going to be of no use to them. The Thunder helped themselves so much more than any other team that they really deserve the only A.
As for Seattle fans watching this unfold, all I can offer is solace is that you still have far superior coffee, microbrews and wine here in the Pacific Northwest. And hiking and mountain biking in the Cascades and Olympics beats the hell out of anything Oklahoma City has to offer. I hope that helps, because the team formerly known as the Seattle Supersonics is going to be one of the contenders for team of the teens.
A: LA Clippers: They got the best player then sat the rest of the process out. Two things we need to quit yapping about here are the “logjam” in the Clipper frontcourt and the inevitable failure of Griffin simply because this is the Clippers. There is no logjam, just a log named Zach. If they take him out of the mix and let Griffin play that would be a great start. As for the latter issue, what the Clippers need to do is block out all the talk about how they’ve been the worst franchise ever. They have been, but that’s the past and dwelling on the past gets any team, or anyone for that matter, nowhere. This decade MLB saw 2 teams that previously had not won a championship since 30 years before the NBA even started take home titles. Things can change quickly for any team. The Clippers have shown a willingness to open up the checkbook in recent years and while that has yet to translate into consistent success, it was a first important step. Drafting a solid player/person like Griffin is another step in that direction.
A: Denver Nuggets: I might as well go all in with Ty Lawson here. Since there’s really no team other than the Thunder who had a draft that blew me away, I’ll gladly toss the 3rd A to the team that stole Lawson. This might change depending on possible deals for Rubio and Stoudemire, but for now the Nuggets get the 3rd A. Ty Lawson is a very good prospect. I can’t explain why he didn’t impress the scouts, but I can say that players who performed like he did in college have generally been sensational.
B: Houston Rockets: Since I factor trades into this and the Rockets top pick was the main piece used for Ron Artest, I have to give them a big thumbs up. With McGrady becoming flakier and more disinterested than ever Artest became the main man on Houston’s perimeter. This was a team that was giving the Lakers all they could handle until Yao went down, so bringing in Artest was huge. He was well worth Omar Cassipi. In addition to Artest the Rockets made a couple of slick moves picking up 2nd-rounders Jermaine Taylor and Chase Budinger for cash considerations. Both players are late first round talents who slid in a deep group of perimeter players. When everyone else is selling the smart team is buying.
B: Sacramento Kings: This is all about Evans who might be the best player in this draft. Getting a player this good is never a bad thing. I’m not sure if the plan is to use him as a PG or SG, or some sort of hybrid like Wade. He’s not really a PG in either passing skill or mentality. If he plays the hybrid point, I’m not sure the Kings have the supporting cast to make it work. But all that isn’t a huge concern. The Kings are still in transition and rebuilding. In such a situation it’s best to add as much talent as possible and let things sort themselves out. Evans was a good pickup here and they deserve credit. Cassispi might help someday, but if he’s all they get for Artest that’s an overall negative even if it was time to move on from that era. Just the fact that they used a 2nd round pick to bring in a John Brockman also gets points deducted.
B: Minnesota Timberwolves: They get the grade for nabbing Rubio. While there appears to be some drama to be played out here, Rubio is a great talent that no team should be taking a pass on if the opportunity to draft him is there. Select him, get his rights and deal with whatever follows. That he came for a couple of players who weren’t really wanted anyway makes it that much better. The rest of the draft was rather weak. Lost in the puzzlement over the selection of Flynn at #6 is that he’s way overvalued as a prospect. That’s a bigger problem than drafting 2 PGs. I’ll never get too down on a team for taking the best player, even if he plays a position the team already has filled. My issue with Flynn is he’s nowhere near the best player available here. That he plays the same position as Rubio just magnifies the gaffe. Adding a Curry, Williams, Derozan, Hill or even a Mullens would have been a much better move. Ellington was a nice late round one pick up, until we realize that the pick they selected him with was part of the Garnett trade. I also give the Wolves some points for a general backcourt reshuffling. This team needed a new look and they got it.
B: San Antonio Spurs: They gabbed Dejuan Blair when everyone else passed. This drama got silly after awhile and when Jeff Pendergraph was drafted with Blair still on the board it moved to the ridiculous. The issue is the knees. Because of surgery Blair has no ACLs. I don’t know what effect having no ACLs will have on Blair in the NBA. I guess the optimistic view would be that at least he won’t tear his ACL. I do know that he was one of the best players in college ball without the ACLs. I’m sure this could cause some trouble down the road and maybe a shortened career. Still this guy is a monster on the inside and would help any team with his rebounding skills. If his minutes need to be limited, or he misses some time here and there, I’ll still take whatever he can contribute. Because even 10 minutes of Dejuan Blair per game is going to be more valuable than what most of these players are going to offer.
B: Boston Celtics: They used the pick as part of the cost for Garnett. Whatever part that played in the championship is still worth a B. I also like that they nabbed Lester Hudson late in the draft. Hudson is a nice player who did many things well. Unfortunately some of those things were inside player things and Hudson is only 6’1”. But he is well worth bringing in and is the type of player more teams should be looking at in round 2 as opposed to obscure Europeans we’ll never hear of again.
B: Memphis Grizzlies: I don’t see Thabeet as another Darko, Bradley, Stipanovich, Olowokandi or any center who was drafted too early because he was very, very tall. Thabeet is better than those guys. He isn’t an elite center, but he could become an elite defender. Think of him as a lesser Mutombo. That’s not a terrible thing, especially on a team that could use a defensive presence. They also may have gotten a good one in Carroll, but trading Kyle Lowry for the pick was too steep a price.
C: Cleveland Cavaliers: I really like the Danny Green pickup. Green is the type who may not fit in with every team, but should work well with a superstar. He pays strong defense and he hits the 3-pointer. This combination is perfect next to a player like LeBron. Danny Green at his best can do all the heavy lifting on the defensive end, allowing LeBron to rest some and concentrate on offense. On the offensive end he stays out of the way and drills the 3-pointer when needed. Bruce Bowen has hung around the league forever because he fills such a role. Green could do the same.
C: Philadelphia 76ers: Far too much is being made of Holiday’s disappointing freshman season. He’s a PG who went to a school that had a senior PG already in place. Holiday’s passing numbers were actually all pretty strong. It’s his scoring that should have people concerned. There’s little doubt in my mind that he would have busted out as a sophomore had he been given the starting PG job with the Bruins. I do wonder why he decided to go to UCLA in the first place if he was planning to leave after a year. Wouldn’t the smart move have been to go somewhere he knew he would have a good chance to start at PG? I mean if playing for UCLA meant that much, he would have stuck around a few more years. Oh well that’s really neither here nor there. The point is Philly got a good candidate to become their PG of the future and they did it with a non-lottery pick. That’s a better draft than most teams had.
C: Orlando Magic: The pick was dealt for Rafer Alston, who was eventually shipped out in the Vince Carter trade. I don’t know if this was how they planned things, but this deal worked out perfectly for the Magic. Alston is a fun-to-watch, but ordinary player who shoots too often and too poorly. But he played the game of his life that helped win game 4 and save the series upset of Cleveland. Now they’ve shipped him off in the Carter trade, because no one really wants a mad bomber as their PG. Nice use of the pick and the player by the Magic.
C: Golden State Warriors: I’m having some trouble warming up to Curry, but unlike with Flynn I really can’t say for sure that he’s overrated. He’s like Westbrook last year. There was nothing in Westbrook’s numbers that suggested he’d be as good as he was, but there was also nothing that indicated he wouldn’t. Curry is the same way. I still see a 6’1” gunner who was a great scorer at the small college level. I still have my doubts about whether he can play the point or not, which will be necessary if he’s going to be a special player. But there’s no one stat I can point that says he can’t. The fact that several NBA teams seem to love this guy is probably a good sign. It’s also good that he’s going to the Warriors where his offense will be valued and put to good use.
C: Dallas Mavericks: Getting the rights to Calathes was a coup. This is a draft of many mysteries and the biggest one to me is why the NBA has been so cool towards this guy. OK he might not be the next Jason Kidd, but he’s shown enough that there is no way the likes of, well just about everyone drafted after #7, should have been drafted ahead of him. This is written without knowledge of how long Calathes intends to stay in Greece. If he has no intention of coming here, then this grade drops. Ahmad Nivins was a nice pickup in round 2.
C: New Orleans Hornets: By drafting the best athlete available a team adds the maximum amount to their overall talent base. Eventually lopsided rosters can get themselves worked out. This is Professional sports drafting 101 and it appears to be the way New Orleans went into the draft. Yes, like many other teams they blew it by passing on Blair. But they did grab 2 good, usable players in Collison and Thornton. Collison in particular seems like a perfect backup to Paul, considering he is a PG, but has also played SG and has a great outside shot. Thornton was one of the better SGs available and a player that simply should have gotten a little more respect. That they now have a crowded backcourt isn’t so much an issue as they have a couple of more useful players to use in trades or in the event of injuries.
C: Chicago Bulls: I like James Johnson as a player. He’s definitely a better prospect than the players who went from 8-15 just ahead of him. The only PFs who were clearly superior were Griffin and Blair. He plays a nice, diverse game and his outside shot should help the Bulls when they go to a small lineup. Gibson was a decent pickup too, though I don’t see that he’ll be more valuable than Thabo Sefolosha, who was traded for the pick. The thing with the Bulls is they’re no longer at the point where they should be accumulating young players and draft picks. This is a team that needs to make a move for an all-star this summer. Actually the time was 2 summers ago, but they whiffed on that one. They can add a couple of more young players to their young mix of talent and perhaps become a slightly better team for it. But they’re not going to make that next big step until they can swing that big deal.
C: New York: This might be considered an incomplete, if a Rubio deal goes down everything changes. As it stands they brought in a serviceable PF who should be an effective banger inside, but is only a borderline starter. Toney Douglas was a nice get late in round one. He’s one of those player who there’s no obvious reason he can’t play other than there are so many others like him out there. That being a smallish SG, I guess Eddie House would be the NBA comp. Douglas can defend some too and he should do well in the D’Antoni system. Right now though I’m sure there’s much more talk of Rubio than either of these two players.
C: Detroit Pistons: Austin Daye is a quirky player who might be pretty darn good someday, but also seems soft, lost and definitely too skinny. There’s an odd range of skills here. His best are blocking shots and shooting the 3-pointer. He can’t score inside at all and that problem will get worse stepping up to the NBA. So he’s basically a project. What they need to do with Daye is let him know where the weight room is, make sure he gets some minutes, exercise some patience with his development and hope something resembling Robert Horry appears in his place one day.
C: Utah Jazz: Maynor was a good pickup at this point. He’s a PG who looks like he can play and will be a nice backup. He would have gone as high as 12-15 in some drafts, but this one was so overloaded with PGs that he slid. That said, he doesn’t life Utah much from where they are now.
C: Toronto Raptors: I have my doubts about DeRozan, but I really have no problem with this pick. There’s little doubt the Raps could have used some more inside help and such help was available. But there will be help in the FA market too and getting a young, athletic player like this when he’s available can hardly be called a mistake. This is the type of move that probably won’t work, but is worth it because the payoff could be pretty high.
C: Portland Trailblazers: Victor Claver may become a pretty solid NBA player when he arrives a few years down the road. His numbers are pretty solid, so that wouldn’t surprise me at all. But I can’t believe the Blazers didn’t make a move up for one of the PGs. That’s the only real area of need on this team. This is a team that could seemingly make any deal they wanted during the past few drafts. Here they were armed with four 2nd round picks going in and teams that seemed generally apathetic toward the talent available after the lottery. You’re telling me they couldn’t have pulled off a deal to get a Holiday, Maynor or Lawson into their mix? It just seems to me that grabbing a player who is more of a pure PG than Bayless as a possible PG of the future would have been the right move.
D: Charlotte Bobcats: I felt Henderson was a reach. He’ll probably fit well in Brown’s system though, because he’s a scrappy defender. He just seems like a treadmill pick. He’s a player who will do nothing to get the Bobcats off this treadmill that has them walking in place.
D: Milwaukee Bucks: They picked up a project in Jennings. There were better PGs and players on the board when Jennings was taken here. I guess since the Bucks have already decided to cash the season in by dealing Jefferson a project makes a little more sense than a player who might provide immediate help. Jennings is a long shot though and this pick seems pretty certain to be of little help.
D: New Jersey Nets: I don’t like the fit of Williams at all here. Terrence Williams is the type of player who will work best on a contending team next to a superstar. Williams is a blue collar/defender/3-point shooter in the mold of Bowen. On a contending team this is an extremely valuable player. On a rebuilding team this is an inefficient scorer who’s overmatched in the role of one of the top 3 options. If I had the power to do a redraft, the Nets would take James Johnson and Williams would go to the Bulls. In Johnson they get a semi-promising prospect who might develop into a pretty good player some day. On the Bulls Williams could be the perfect non-intrusive backcourt mate for Derrick Rose.
D: Miami Heat: Ricky Davis cost them this pick. He didn’t work out that well, so I’m going to have to dock them. As for their 2nd round picks, Robert Dozier is solid enough. Patrick Beverly was one of those short PGs who really wasn‘t a PG, like Teague, Douglas and McClintock. Beverly wasn’t near the player any of these guys were, so the idea that he became such overseas is probably wishful thinking.
D: Atlanta Hawks: A short PG who has yet to prove he can play the point. I don’t know if anyone in Atlanta was watching, but when a real PG named Mike Bibby joined the team they started to win. Bibby’s a FA now and they’re not going to replace him with the shoot-first likes of Jamal Crawford and Teague and continue the nice run they started last year. They could have had Maynor or even flipped picks for Lawson. Teague was a reach and just a bad choice for this team.
D: LA Lakers: They drafted Toney Douglas and promptly handed him over to the Knicks. Douglas is a player who would have worked well in the triangle, so I’m a little surprised they didn’t keep him around. But I guess when you’re the champs small matters like the draft just aren’t important any longer.
F: Indiana Pacers: This is laughable. The strangest thing about this pick is the way the media generally reacted positively to it. It’s as if everyone is afraid to admit that Larry Bird as a GM is now a screw up on the level of Isiah Thomas or Steve Kerr. Tyler Hansbrough offers very little. He doesn’t play good defense. He doesn’t pass the ball at all, so forget that ridiculous Luke Walton comp. He’s a below average rebounder. He’s an average inside scorer who got to the line a lot in college. Since he’s going from a league where he was taller and bigger than most defenders who covered him to one where he’s smaller, shorter and has shorter arms, I feel he’s going to get killed on the inside. He’s going to be way overmatched and it’s a shame the Pacers felt it necessary to put him in this situation. I think this is a reaction to the Jail Pacers era as much as anything. They got so tired of the bad boys that now they’re going to go with high character guys. I know the Blazers went on a character kick after tiring of the troublemakers. For them this led to the decision of passing on Chris Paul and Deron Williams for Martell Webster. The Blazers are in a good place now, but drafting strictly on character rarely works.
F: Phoenix Suns: This is probably too harsh. Consider it a case of a teacher disliking a kid so much that the kid wouldn’t get a good grade even if he brought an apple to school and behaved every day for a month. Clark seems like a bad fit here. He’s a player who doesn’t really fit into any role. He’s big enough and rebounds well enough to play PF, but is a terrible inside scorer. He’s quick enough to play the perimeter, but has no outside shot. There are teams out there who could probably figure out a role for Clark, as he does have a nice size/athleticism mix. In Phoenix I just don’t see how he’s going to contribute. They also lose points for drafting a player who’s basically a novelty in round 2. I know round two picks rarely make it, but sometimes they do. They’re also a cheap way to secure the rights to a player, so they shouldn’t just be tossed away.
F: Washington Wizards: This move made no sense. I’m not sure anyone in Washington noticed, but their team hit rock bottom last year. When this happens it’s time to stop fooling yourself about where your team stands and rebuild. Instead the Wizards made the type of move a contending team makes and added a couple of veterans who will help immediately. I have no problem with either Miller or Foye. Both can play and, along with the return of Arenas, might even push this team towards the magical 40-win level. Getting back on the treadmill of mediocrity wasn’t the way for this franchise to go. Using the pick to draft a potentially legendary player like Rubio made much more sense.