Going over the centers has been somewhat of a revelation. I expected that I would be knocking both Thabeet and Mullens while bulding myself to a near freak out over the fact that no one seems interested in John Bryant. I thought I might even call this the worst center class ever. It isn’t. Both Thabeet and Mullens have a chance to become very good NBA players and I still like Bryant. What’s lacking in this class is depth. There just aren’t many players worth talking about after the top 3.
|
Player |
fgpct | 3pct | 2 pct | P40 | R40 | A40 | S40 | B40 | TO40 | A/TO |
| Bryant, John |
0.596 |
0.000 |
0.598 |
23.77 |
18.63 |
1.40 |
0.68 |
3.35 |
3.27 |
0.43 |
| Elonu, C |
0.665 |
0.000 |
0.665 |
16.49 |
12.30 |
0.49 |
0.49 |
2.62 |
3.06 |
0.16 |
| Mullens, BJ |
0.638 |
0.000 |
0.642 |
18.28 |
9.64 |
0.56 |
1.00 |
2.32 |
3.19 |
0.18 |
| Nevill, Luke |
0.607 |
0.000 |
0.607 |
21.49 |
11.55 |
1.66 |
0.56 |
3.46 |
3.09 |
0.54 |
| Suton, Goran |
0.551 |
0.167 |
0.570 |
13.60 |
12.30 |
2.75 |
1.58 |
1.38 |
2.50 |
1.10 |
| Thabeet, H |
0.640 |
0.000 |
0.640 |
16.06 |
12.74 |
0.56 |
0.72 |
4.99 |
2.23 |
0.25 |
Because of time constrants this is going to be somewhat abbreviated, with most of the focus on Thabeet and Mullens. Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal.
1. Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut: I’ve been cool toward him all season, but after some analysis, I have to say that he’s turned himself into a pretty darn good prospect. Because Thabeet only started playing the game a few years ago I can give him somewhat of a break on the weak numbers his first couple of seasons:
| Hasheem Thabeet |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
.562 |
9.5 |
9.8 |
5.9 |
0.2 |
| Sophomore |
.591 |
12.6 |
9.7 |
5.3 |
0.2 |
| Junior |
.640 |
16.1 |
12.7 |
5.0 |
0.3 |
He went from being just a tall guy who blocked some shots to a prospect who does everything prospects have historically needed to do. The two big numbers here are the .640 FG pct. and the 12.7 R40. By getting these numbers to a higher level Thabeet has taken himself from a situational shotblocker to serious prospect. How serious? Check out this list of past NCAA centers who surpassed .600 2-point pct. and 4.7 B40:
| Player |
2 pt pct |
P40 |
R40 |
B40 |
A/TO |
| Dikembe Mutombo |
.709 |
16.7 |
16.4 |
6.5 |
0.3 |
| Oliver Miller |
.707 |
25.6 |
12.6 |
4.8 |
0.9 |
| Hakeem Olajuwan |
.675 |
19.7 |
15.9 |
6.6 |
0.8 |
| Shaquille O’Neal |
.628 |
35.1 |
18.7 |
6.4 |
0.5 |
| Patrick Ewing |
.625 |
19.2 |
12.1 |
4.8 |
0.6 |
| Joel Przybilla |
.613 |
18.8 |
11.0 |
5.1 |
0.7 |
| Alonzo Mourning |
.609 |
18.6 |
10.3 |
7.0 |
0.4 |
| Hasheem Thabeet |
.640 |
16.1 |
12.7 |
5.0 |
0.3 |
Nice little group of players here. Mutombo, Hakeem and Shaq all made the list more than once. Oliver Miller was a short center who could never keep his weight in line enough to play regular, despite posting some strong per minute numbers. I think Thabeet comps better with the players other than Miller, because of his tall frame. Przybilla is on the list for his sophomore season, during which he left the team in early February. For this reason his numbers might be a little bloated due to playing a larger percentage of games against a non-conference schedule. Still, if the floor for Thabeet is a solid journeyman like Przybilla he’s a pretty good prospect. His A/TO is weak, but this condition doesn’t become serious unless it drops below 0.2. He probably should work on this, but it’s not going to keep him from playing and contributing.
After looking at this chart, I like Thabeet better than before. It’s a given that he’s going to be an intimidating presence from the start. He’ll be among the leaders in blocks per minutes for most of his career. He can hold his own on the boards. While he hasn’t developed much of an offensive game, he did connect on 64% and showed an ability to get to the line. He’s not one of those tall shotblockers like McIlvaine or Bradley who come up short on either rebounding or scoring efficiency. His offense will be weak, but his defense should be strong. A strong defensive center is a great thing for a team to have. Thabeet does everything a center needs to do. He’ll fit well with a team that has enough offense that they can ignore him on that end.
Most similar players to Hasheem Thabeet:
Emeka Okafor, junior: .937
Patrick Ewing, senior: .934
Sharone Wright, sophomore: .930
Dikembe Mutombo, senior: .928
Tim Duncan, sophomore: .923
This is a nice group. If I felt these comps meant anything I’d be more impressed. Still, when I look at his numbers, Thabeet keeps coming up in the company of greats.
2. BJ Mullens, Ohio State: The important thing to remember with Mullens is that he’s just a freshman. His numbers weren’t great for a prospect, but for a freshman prospect he wasn’t all that bad. Considering he hit .642 on his 2-pointers, he has to be taken seriously as a prospect. While Mullens had his struggles, the list of players who hit over 60% of their shots as freshmen is short and impressive. Here are past NCAA freshmen who hit over 60% of their FGs while playing more than 500 minutes:
| Player | 2 pt pct | P40 | R40 | B40 | A/TO |
| Jelani McCoy | .676 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 |
| Patrick Ewing | .631 | 17.6 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | .607 | 18.2 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 0.3 |
| Alonzo Mourning | .609 | 18.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 0.4 |
| Bison Dele | .600 | 17.9 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| BJ Mullens | .642 | 18.3 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
Mullens is in some fast company here. This table suggests he has a chance to be an outstanding offensive player. Three of the five on the list are among the best ever, but none have anything on Mullens offensively at this point. On the defensive end Mullens comes up a little short. He’s also the worst passer in the bunch. Regardless of the defensive numbers this table should shine a different light on a player who was considered a disappointment as a freshman.
I have my doubts that Mullens will ever be more than an average defensive center. Shotblocking seems to be one of those “either you have it or you don’t” type of skills. Even the rawest of players can still block shots if they have it. Of course, blocks aren’t the end all of defense. Mullens is long and skilled, so there’s no reason he couldn’t become an adequate defender. He’ll never be a Thabeet though. What a team will be getting with Mullens is a potentially excellent offensive player. Because he’s a center this makes him potentially a very good player.
Most similar players to BJ Mullens:
Ed Pinckney, freshman: .978
Brendan Haywood, sophomore: .978
Matt Nelson, sophomore: .960
David Lee, sophomore: .946
James Augustine, sophomore: .932
3. John Bryant, Santa Clara: Some team needs to draft this guy and they need to do it in round one. Bryant is coming off a great rebounding year. He grabbed 18.63 per 40 minutes. The only season I found that topped this number was Shaq’s 18.66 as a sophomore. Bryant isn’t just a rebounder either. He scores often and efficiently enough for a center. He has over 3.5 B40 the past couple of years. Bryant is just a very good player. I suspect the knock on him is his height and weight. He’s listed at 6’10” and about 300 lbs. That’s a heavy guy and these dimensions won’t translate well to a league that prefers long and lean. But Bryant has the numbers that say he can play. He’s probably nothing more than a rebounder/inside scorer off the bench, but should become a pretty effective one if he gets a chance.
Most similar players to John Bryant:
Kurt Thomas, senior: .933
Jelani McCoy, junior: .917
Jon Koncak, junior: .916
Tim Duncan, senior: .915
Curtis Borchardt, junior: .914
Next Duncan? Probably not. But this shows Bryant put up some seriously good numbers in college and should be taken a little more seriously as a prospect.
4. Luke Nevill, Utah: Nevill also posted some solid numbers. This was the first year he actually put everything together and was solid in every important category. Every previous season he had a down year in one category or another. As a 5th-year senior, it hurts him that it took so long for him to get things together. Nevill looks like he should become a decent reserve.
Most similar players to Luke Nevill:
Mustafa Al-Sayyad, senior: .956
Ken Johnson, senior: .953
William Bedford, senior: .951
Yemi Nicholson, senior: .951
Dwayne Schintzius, senior: .945
5. Goran Suton, Michigan State: Suton offers a decent outside shot and some nice passing skills. Unlike some other finesse inside players, Suton is a strong rebounder. He doesn’t score much and is a poor defender. Suton is a long shot, but offers enough that I could see him helping a team as a 4th or 5th big man.
Most similar players to Goran Suton:
Anthony Avent, junior: .978
Byron Houston, junior: .964
Mark Acres, senior: .949
Vili Morton, senior: .947
Casey Shaw, senior: .946
6. Chinemelu Elonu, Texas A&M: He played low minutes and has an A/TO that should kill any chances he has. But he did hit over 66% of his shots and he rebounded and blocked shots pretty well. I don’t like any player other than a freshman being this raw. Elonu would get buried most years, but this year he might find himself drafted. He’s very much a longshot.
Most similar players to Chinemelu Elonu:
Felton Spencer, senior: .956
Jason Collins, junior: .944
Will Perdue, senior: .942
Joey Dorsey, sophomore: .942
Clifford Rozier, junior: .932
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