Well, these playoffs have been strange. I doubt many fans correctly forecasted that both Boston and Cleveland would be eliminated in the second round and that they would be easily beaten. Then, watching Indiana win two games in New York in the Eastern Conference Finals was also jarring. It appears that the Pacers are well on their way to the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years but let’s do a quick run of what we’ve seen so far….
Is Tom Thibodeau playing the starters too much?
We all know by now the two related weaknesses attributed to Tom Thibodeau: (a) playing starters too much and (b) failing to make in-game adjustments when the opposing coach changes strategy. The first criticism seems pretty legit. Thibs has rode Mikal Bridges ridiculously hard this series (46 mpg) and leaned pretty heavily on Jalen Brunson (39.5 mpg) and OJ Anunoby (39 mpg). The entirety of the bench is Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson, with a few Cam Payne cameos.
One would expect the rotation to tighten in the deep playoffs, so these heavy minutes are not definitive proof that Thibodeau is not resting them enough. Let’s compare Thibs’ playoff minutes with the rest of the league. Here’s a list of the mpg leaders from the players who have played more than one round of this year’s playoffs:
| Rk | Player | MP/G | G | Season | Age | Team | G |
| 1 | Jamal Murray | 41.3 | 14 | 2024-25 | 27 | DEN | 14 |
| 2 | Mikal Bridges | 40.6 | 14 | 2024-25 | 28 | NYK | 14 |
| 3 | Jayson Tatum | 40.3 | 8 | 2024-25 | 26 | BOS | 8 |
| 4 | Nikola Jokić | 40.2 | 14 | 2024-25 | 29 | DEN | 14 |
| 5 | OG Anunoby | 39.8 | 14 | 2024-25 | 27 | NYK | 14 |
| 6 | Anthony Edwards | 39.7 | 12 | 2024-25 | 23 | MIN | 12 |
| 7 | Christian Braun | 38.9 | 14 | 2024-25 | 23 | DEN | 14 |
| 8 | Jalen Brunson | 38.9 | 14 | 2024-25 | 28 | NYK | 14 |
| 9 | Derrick White | 37.7 | 11 | 2024-25 | 30 | BOS | 11 |
| 10 | Aaron Gordon | 37.3 | 14 | 2024-25 | 29 | DEN | 14 |
| 11 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 37.2 | 13 | 2024-25 | 26 | OKC | 13 |
| 12 | Julius Randle | 37 | 12 | 2024-25 | 30 | MIN | 12 |
| 13 | Josh Hart | 36.9 | 14 | 2024-25 | 29 | NYK | 14 |
| 14 | Jaylen Brown | 36.5 | 11 | 2024-25 | 28 | BOS | 11 |
| 15 | Jimmy Butler | 36.1 | 11 | 2024-25 | 35 | GSW | 11 |
| 16 | Karl-Anthony Towns | 35.4 | 14 | 2024-25 | 29 | NYK | 14 |
| 17 | Jalen Williams | 35.2 | 13 | 2024-25 | 23 | OKC | 13 |
| 18 | Stephen Curry | 35.1 | 8 | 2024-25 | 36 | GSW | 8 |
| 19 | Tyrese Haliburton | 34.9 | 12 | 2024-25 | 24 | IND | 12 |
| 20 | Jaden McDaniels | 34.9 | 12 | 2024-25 | 24 | MIN | 12 |
Of players who have played more than two rounds of the playoffs, 20 have logged 35 minutes per game. Of those 20, the Knicks have five players on the list compared with four for Denver, three for Boston and Minnesota, two for OKC and Golden State, and only one for Indiana. In addition, the Knicks have three of the top seven in minutes per game.
By comparison, last year, Thibs played Josh Hart an insane 42 mpg in the playoffs and Brunson 40 mpg but everyone else was at 36 mpg or fewer. Perhaps not coincidentally, Thibs’ bench was a bit deeper, with Alec Burks, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Precious Achiuwa getting decent playing time. Thibs apparently does not have the confidence in Achiuwa to play him these playoffs (it is true that Achiuwa played more last year only when Mitchell Robinson was injured).
What options are being ignored by Thibodeau? Landry Shamet has shot poorly these playoffs so far but he hasn’t gotten the opportunity to play and get any rhythm. Just a few minutes from Achiuwa, Shamet, or PJ Tucker would probably be helpful to the overtaxed starters. They are playing heavier minutes than even last playoffs. Keep in mind that the team collapsed with injuries in the playoffs last scene under fewer minutes than they are playing now. I fear that the same thing will happen again this series if New York can force a six or seven game series.
Thibodeau should note that Rick Carlisle has gotten spot minutes of value from bench players of varying quality. Indy’s bench is a little deeper, but the confidence Carlisle has shown in decent role players like Ben Sheppard and Thomas Bryant have paid off in a way that highlights one of Thibs’ limitations.
In-game adjustments
Not to pick on Thibs too much but there were a few things during the first two games that stuck out to me that could’ve been done better:
-It’s hard to fault the Knicks for running a Brunson heavy office. He’s averaging 40 ppg this series and any shots they get emanate from the double teams or switches on picks he draws. Brunson’s deliberate style has also allowed the Knicks to slow down the pace significantly to 94.9 for the series (the Pacers had a 99.9 pace for the season and want to run). This lack of variance did hurt them at the end of Game 1 when they needed a little more creativity to hold off Indy’s late charge.
-New York also was caught flat footed by the hacking strategy on Mitchell Robinson, which Carlisle employed abruptly and effectively.
-New York was slow to adjust personnel to slow down TJ McConnell in Game 2 in particular.
Comeback De Ja Vu
Indy’s crazy Game 1 comeback clearly reminded us to Reggie Miller’s blitzing the Knicks with eight points in nine seconds to steal Game 1 of their 1994-95 second round series. The story is well-remembered but let’s highlight a few details:
-New York was ahead by 6 points with 18.7 seconds left. Miller’s stats at that point were: 5-16 from the field and 1-5 from three and had for 23 points.
-Miller hit a deep three and then Anthony Mason had trouble finding a player to inbound to and had no timeout to call. Mase panicked and passed the inbound pass to Reggie, who dribbled back to the three-point line and hit another three-pointer.
-Indy then fouled John Starks, who bricked both foul shots and Miller got fouled by Mason and made both free throws to clinch the game and make the infamous choke sign, and ending with 31 points.
-Reggie got all the publicity but Rik Smits also was huge, with 34 points and also holding Patrick Ewing to 11 points on 4-15 shooting. The Knicks were terrible from the line (19-28, .679%), with Mason going 3-7 and Starks missing those two key free throws at the end.
–The Knicks comments after the bad loss:
Charles Smith: “[Miller] He reminds me of a guy I grew up with, who only ran his mouth when things went well and when his friends were around.”
Starks: “We’re not embarrassed. We’re angry that we didn’t finish out the game the way we’re supposed to. Reggie’s going to say things, but that’s just one win. You win a game like that, you have to be humble about it. They happened to luck up and win one. I guess he wasn’t humble about it — running off at the mouth. That’s him.”
Pat Riley blamed the meltdown on not having timeouts, which were burned by players (probably Charles Oakley) calling timeouts to save possessions when falling out of bounds: “In any situation where there’s pressure, you’ve got to come hard to the ball. If it’s not available, then you’ve got to run the baseline. If we had had a timeout, that situation wouldn’t have happened. But we did not execute very well on that situation after we were stunned by the first 3….I’m going to be the very first coach this year to recommend a rule change, that any player who doesn’t have two feet on the ground cannot call timeout. It became a fad. It’s a heads-up play, but only in certain situations.”
-New York bounced back to pummel Indy by 19 points in Game 2. The Pacers would go up 3-1 before the Knicks won two (including a tough Game 6 in Indy) to force a Game 7 at MSG. New York lost the series when Ewing missed a layup at the buzzer. Riley faxed his resignation shortly after, ending his era in New York.
-New York outscored Indy for the series by 1.4 ppg and held them to .470 eFG% but timing is everything. If either the ending of Game 1 or Game 7 broke slightly differently, New York could’ve won this series. Still, a title or even a Finals appearance were unlikely. Orlando with Shaq and Penny were waiting in the Conference Finals and had handled New York pretty well, so the Knicks were unlikely to go much further.