NBA Draft 2012: Pass-First PGs

by Ed Weiland

The PG class of 2012 looks like it could be the worst group since 1992, an otherwise strong draft that included Lee Mayberry and Brent Price as the top two floor generals. I can’t say whether or not 2012 will beat that draft for PG futility. There are some interesting prospects, but none who stand out as sure things.

The most interesting thing about this group of PGs is there are three prospects who put up very high assist rates, as measured by A40 (assists per 40 minutes). I’m going to look at those 3 players and their chances of NBA success. They are Kendall Marshall of North Carolina, Scott Machado of Iona and Jesse Sanders of Liberty.

There have been several college PGs who posted 9+ A40 over the years. The majority of them were never drafted. While it isn’t the most important thing for a PG prospect to do, it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Since it would be way too cumbersome to compare every last college PG who finished with an A40 over 9.0, I put up a sampling of all-stars, journeymen and busts for a look at how their numbers compare to those of Marshall, Machado and Sanders.

Player 2PP 3PP P40 A40 S40 RSB40

Jason Kidd .545 .362    19.0 10.3 3.6   11.8

Rod Strickland .541 .444 24.9 9.7 3.6          8.5

Eric Snow     .547 .292 13.2 9.5 2.3          6.5

Sherman Douglas .594 .368 20.6 9.7 2.1     4.8

Rafer Alston .513 .337 13.9 9.1 2.7 5.8

Brevin Knight .407 .409 20.4 9.8 3.5 8.3

JJ Barea .485 .291 25.1 10.0 1.5 6.8

Moochie Norris  .483 .424 24.5      9.3 3.1 9.1

Jacque Vaughn .493 .345 11.5 9.1 1.2 5.8

Bobby Hurley .421 .421 19.2 9.2 1.7 4.7

TJ Ford .429 .265 17.8 9.2 2.4 7.2

Mateen Cleaves  .472 .292 15.0 9.3 2.3 4.5

Jared Jordan .511 .298 18.1 9.2 1.4 7.7

Omar Cook .424 .309 16.1 9.1 2.4 5.8

Chris Herren .435 .383 16.6 10.6  1.5 3.9

Kendall Marshall  .527 .354 9.2 11.0   1.4 4.5

Scott Machado .537 .404 15.0 11.0   1.8 7.5

Jesse Sanders .514 .356 14.2 9.1 1.4 10.4

The big thing that stands out is players with a 2-point percentage well over .500 do much better than players at or below this number. A strong 2PP is the difference between a Jeremy Lin and a Josh Slater. Any PG prospect with a 2PP over .550 merits a look. Prospects who are too far under .500 generally flop.
Steals are also important. The two players on the list whose careers stand well above the others, Kidd and Strickland, were both dominant ballhawks. Prospects with an RSB40 that is too far below 7 rarely achieve much more than journeyman status. Douglas and Alston were exceptions to this rule, though neither player was anything close to being a difference maker
Player 2PP 3PP P40 A40 S40 RSB40
Jason Kidd .545 .362 19.0 10.3 3.6 11.8
Rod Strickland .541 .444 24.9 9.7 3.6 8.5
Eric Snow .547 .292 13.2 9.5 2.3 6.5
Sherman Douglas .594 .368 20.6 9.7 2.1 4.8
Rafer Alston .513 .337 13.9 9.1 2.7 5.8
Brevin Knight .407 .409 20.4 9.8 3.5 8.3
JJ Barea .485 .291 25.1 10.0 1.5 6.8
Moochie Norris .483 .424 24.5 9.3 3.1 9.1
Jacque Vaughn .493 .345 11.5 9.1 1.2 5.8
Bobby Hurley .421 .421 19.2 9.2 1.7 4.7
TJ Ford .429 .265 17.8 9.2 2.4 7.2
Mateen Cleaves .472 .292 15.0 9.3 2.3 4.5
Jared Jordan .511 .298 18.1 9.2 1.4 7.7
Omar Cook .424 .309 16.1 9.1 2.4 5.8
Chris Herren .435 .383 16.6 10.6 1.5 3.9
Kendall Marshall .527 .354 9.2 11.0 1.4 4.5
Scott Machado .537 .404 15.0 11.0 1.8 7.5

Jesse Sanders .514 .356 14.2 9.1 1.4 1

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  1. [...] Nation. Andrew Sharp on the ascending Oklahoma City Thunder. Typically great. Stop it, guys. 10th: Hoops Analyst. Ed Weiland (a guy you should listen to, perhaps) on the pass-first point guards in this [...]

    Pingback by Lenore Koch Smith - The 10-man rotation, starring Rick Reilly missing the joke — June 6, 2012 #

  2. [...] Here’s the Ed Weiland article I will dissect. And here’s the chart he made below. [...]

    Pingback by Re: Ed Weiland’s on 2012 Draft Passing Point Guards « bballpants – on Basketball. — June 14, 2012 #

  3. Hey Ed. why aren’t you on twitter? Not to doubt your work but do you have bigger data sample for your conclusions? It fits with the WS40 theories on box scores but I would love a multi year data dump experiment that has the percentages of successful candidates. I would love a control using say 3PP%.

    Hickory-high does something with sim scores where you take a stat, and normalize it to 1000. You could probably create a similarity score with high coefficients on those stats you champion necessary for good college-to-NBA transition.

    Comment by bballpants — June 14, 2012 #

  4. [...] instead of data … here’s a more analytical analysis courtesy of Hoops Analyst’s draft expert Ed Weiland: There have been several college PGs who posted 9+ A40 over the years. The majority of them were [...]

    Pingback by Glad the Bulls Got Teague | Left in Front — June 29, 2012 #

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