1. Game 4 Fallout: On Thursday the Magic and Lakers played an great Game 4, filled with twists and turns and plenty to buzz about, both good and bad. Here are our observations of the proceedings:
-While the decision to foul or defend the three is one coaches have struggled with, it’s pretty clear that either option is better than just standing there and letting the defender shoot an open three. Derek Fisher had several seconds to square up and hit that three over Jameer Nelson as he inexplicably worried about the drive, with his team up three with a few seconds left. Had Nelson been thinking a little more clearly, he would’ve gotten up in Fisher’s face and only fouled if Fisher had a clear look. I did not like the idea of reflexively fouling as the Lakers came up the court just because the the Magic were shooting so poorly from the line but, as noted, a foul would’ve made more sense than their actual defense.
-This leads to another huge question…why was Nelson in the game for so long any way? Nelson had some decently effective moments but had absolutely no inclination to shoot and dubious conditioning after a long injury lay off. Nelson’s failure to guard Fisher on the game tying three wasn’t his only lapse. Earlier in the quarter, Kobe Bryant had a wide open three where Mickael Pietrus seemingly left Bryant all alone for no apparent reason. It seems that Nelson was meant to switch on the play but was way behind. Stan Van Gundy had gotten some decent play out of Nelson, who did create some shots on penetration. As Nelson tired and it was clear he would not shoot, the time had come to try Rafer Alston or Courtney Lee.
-The Lakers were quite tough. After years of Phil Jackson complaining about Pat Riley’s Knicks and Chuck Daly’s Pistons, it was somewhat ironic to watch the Lakers slam any Orlando player to come near the lane in the last five minutes. Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, and Derek Fisher all artistically hit the Magic drivers without quite going over the line. Of course, if the Magic had made a few free throws this strategy wouldn’t have worked.
-The two biggest shots no one will remember from this game came before Fisher’s big three. Kobe hit a three from way outside with Pietrus draped all over him and then Trevor Ariza hit a big three from the top of the key on a play where he did not really have his feet set. The fact that the Lakers were able to cobble just enough threes to keep up with Orlando was amazing considering how little offense they had going to the basket (no free throws in the fourth quarter and most of overtime).
-It’s hard to say whether had Dwight Howard had a great bad game or a bad great game. Howard was dominant defensively and snuffed nine shots, which effectively turned the Lakers into a three-point shooting or bust team and 21 rebounds. On offense, Howard was bad from the line (6-14) and couldn’t score on any shot that wasn’t a dunk (5-12 from the field). To make matters worse, Howard would absolutely panic when he was double teamed, leading to some really awkward shots and seven turnovers. (I’m sure Cavs fans are wondering why Howard couldn’t shoot from the line like this in the Eastern Conference Finals). Obviously, Howard is still a star but he’ll be of limited effectiveness if he can’t score with his back to the basket. Shaquille O’Neal had similar problems when he was younger but he did learn how to score a bit without just drop-stepping and dunking (though that will always be his signature move). Just for kicks, here’s how Howard compares with Shaq from 1994-95 when O’Neal led another young Magic team to the Finals:
| Player | Year | Age | MPG | PPG | FG | FGA | FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | RPG | APG | BPG | SPG | TOPG | PER |
| S. O’Neal | 1994-95 | 22 | 37.0 | 29.3 | 11.8 | 20.2 | 0.583 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 0.533 | 11.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 28.6 |
| D. Howard | 2008-09 | 23 | 35.7 | 20.6 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 0.572 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 0.594 | 13.8 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.4 |
While Howard has some amazing strengths in rebounding and shot blocking that surpass even Shaq, he just couldn’t score like even the young O’Neal. Shaq was also much better about avoiding turnover, which was probably aided by his size. As strong as Howard is, at 6’11, he’s just not quite big enough to preclude the guards from doubling down on him in the post.
-Speaking of comparisons, how does Kobe compare with his idol Michael Jordan at the same age? Jordan turned 30 in the middle of 1992-93 (Jordan spent the rest of age-30 retired and playing minor league baseball). Let’s take a look at MJ’s 1992-93 versus the current Kobe:
| Player | Year | Age | MPG | PPG | FG | FGA | FG% | 3s | 3sA | 3FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | RPG | APG | BPG | SPG | TOPG | PER |
| M. Jordan | 1992-93 | 29 | 39.3 | 32.6 | 12.7 | 25.7 | 0.495 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 0.352 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 0.837 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 29.7 |
| K. Bryant | 2008-09 | 30 | 36.1 | 26.8 | 9.8 | 20.9 | 0.467 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 0.351 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 0.856 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 24.3 |
Jordan got many more shots than Kobe but still was a superior player on pretty much every level. Jordan was leading the league in steals and points at the same age. Kobe’s numbers have been declining pretty steadily since 2005-06, particularly from the free throw line. The point, however, isn’t to take potshots at a great player like Kobe but to note that Jordan was in a different stratosphere as a player.
-Fisher also gets another big shot on his resume to compare with his ridiculous shot with 0.3 seconds to beat the Spurs in 2003-04. Between the several NBA titles and his timely shooting in several NBA Finals, Fisher is sure to earn a rep similar to Robert Horry, clutch shooter. The stat community tend to roll its eyes and such exalted status. Horry and Fisher are pretty average NBA players but it’s hard to begrudge them credit for making huge shots in huge moments. But balancing the reality that they weren’t great with their notable clutch moments, that deserve recognition, is something NBA historian-types will no doubt struggle with.
-How hard is it to get an NBA Finals series to 2-2? Only twice this decade has an NBA Finals been tied at 2-2 going into Game 5. Just in case you’re curious, here’s a list of the NBA Finals that were tied 2-2 from the last three decades:
2000s
-2005-06 (Heat v. Mavs)
-2004-05 (Spurs v. Pistons)
-2002-03 (Spurs v. Nets)
1990s
-1996-97 (Bulls v. Jazz)
-1993-94 (Rockets v. Knicks)
-1991-92 (Bulls v. Blazers)
1980s
-1987-88 (Lakers v. Pistons)
-1984-85 (Lakers v. Celtics)
-1983-84 (Celtics v. Lakers)
-1980-81 (Celtics v. Rockets)
-What will happen in Game 5? The Lakers have done their job by getting the one win they needed in Orlando. The Magic might be demoralized from the loss but they are tough and winning two on the road is tough. I think we’ll see a Game 6 in this series and, hopefully, a little more excitement.